look at the presidential candidates and some key senate races. nathan gonzales, thanks for being here. a couple days after the debates. we will look at a pole in a second about who is ahead. just your take on those nights. who came out on top and who did not perform as well? >> we need to define winning in a couple different ways. you can talk about who captured the conversation. i think senator kamala harris really captured the conversation. in some way, i think she was one of the key winners. another way to define winning is who moves the most in the polls. what do the democratic primary voters think about those debates. we are just at the beginning edge of finding out what voters thought. there was at least one national poll that has been out. i would like to see some polls out of iowa and new hampshire because they are going to be very influential in this process.

over the next few days, that picture will become clear. >> one of the posts we saw from cnn, harris and warren rise and biden slides after the first democratic debate had surprisingly. not surprising. after the debate nights joe biden dropping 10%. kamala harris is up 9%. elizabeth warren is up 8%. pete buttigieg is down a percent although we understand that his fundraising is actually. >> 24 million in a quarter. not bad. that's a big quarter. >> what are the guidelines for the next round of debates? polls are fine, but what to they have to do to get in debates? >> i think they are looking at a 2% threshold to get in, which there are some stories about republicans trying to donate to marianne williamson to make sure she gets in the second debate. i think she might struggle to reach the polling threshold to get there. i think the field will shake up

a little bit. i believe steve bullock is going to qualify for the second debate. i think we will still see a crowd of folks and, hopefully, two more interesting nights. >> nathan gonzales is our guest. we are talking 2020 politics. we welcome your comments. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8002 independents and others. set for us again, in terms of b 20 presidential debate, what do democrats have to do to overcome president trump and 2020, whoever the candidate might be? >> i think from a big picture perspective we always get into this debate about is at the base or the middle. i think a winning party in this country is -- you need both. the democratic base is going to be united and excited behind defeating president trump for a

second term and then i think it's about voters in the middle. voters that are balancing a couple of different things. they may not like the tweets the president sets out, but they believe the economy is headed in the right direction, and i expect democrats to talk a lot about health care. that was key to their gains in 2018. i think they will talk a lot about health care. i think their ability to balance talking about issues versus just prosecuting a certain case against the president, i think that is the task ahead of democrats. >> fair to say the president likely won't lose any of his core support from 2016. who are the people the democrats have to reach to beat him? >> i think the democrats have to try to -- a couple of different ways. they can try to reach those obama voters who flipped to president trump, particularly in the upper midwest and into pennsylvania. they could also try to boost their own turnout among democrats who may have taken the 2016 election for granted.

they may have just assumed hillary clinton was going to win. and it didn't turn out in the numbers they help. now, i think those democrats are on alert in a way that they weren't three years ago, and that's why i expect democratic turnout to be high. >> seven independent and democratic senators running -- >> at least for now. >> let's look at the 2020 races where senators are up for reelection. let's look at the ones that are in the tossup category. let's look at the ones in the sort of tossup at agoura. the republican senator, susan collins maine, has announced challengers already in her democratic party. >> state speaker sarah gideon just announced last week. she's kind of the preferred candidate of the democratic establishment. there is another candidate who

is running who announced earlier betsy sweet, who finished third in the gubernatorial race. i expect gideon to be the democratic nominee. susan collins has proven herself as she can win tough races. she has defeated former members of congress before. i think we are entering an era -- we are in an era of increased polarization. i don't think she can take her race for granted. senator collins and cory gardner of colorado are the only two senators up for reelection in the state hillary clinton carried in 2016. that is significant because, in 2016, that was the first time in history or first time since we have been popularly electing our the senate result and the presidential result matched in every state. if the 2016 map holds, that should be concerning to senator collins and senator gardner. >> was it senator gardner's vote naugh issue that

energized opposition in maine? >> it looks like it'll be sarah gideon. once she gets the nomination, she will be the beneficiary of almost $4 million that came on vote.els of the kavanaugh thom tillis of north carolina up for reelection next year. beents indicated he has very influential with the president. why the challenge? yc in the tossup category? closest14, that was the senate race, and i expect north carolina to continue to be competitive and close. he does have a primary challenge from a wealthy candidate named garland tucker. democrats are still sorting through their field.

it looks like a former legislator and veteran, named cal cunningham, is still the front runner. that race is still evolving. at its core north carolina is a competitive place. >> we will start our phone calls in north carolina. the number is on your screen. jim is on the republican line in wilmington, north carolina. >> good morning. melting in the dark. it might have been a beautiful cake at some point i i watched both of the democrat debates and i just have to tell you it reminded me of macarthur park melting in the dark. it might have been a beautiful cake at some point in time, by the time they put it was a hot, wet mess. by the time we got to four hours it was a long slog. i think republicans were fashion line >> -- >> by the time we got to four hours it was a long slog. i think republicans were ecstatic about the issues that

were coming up. the positions to the left that democrats were taking. they are going to use some of that footage in the general election depending on who the nominees are. i think it comes down to this 2020 election, what is the frame of the 2020 election? if this is about do you like the president or not, i don't think the president is going to win. if the election is about is it between capitalism and socialism, or do you want to keep your private health insurance, that's a very different type of election and i think republicans have a much better chance if that's the frame voters are looking at. >> do you think thom tillis wins reelection next year? jim, you still there? caller: i have a love-hate relationship with thom tillis. he was right up to the edge of voting wrong on the emergency declaration and came around. he's always right in the middle and that's a good place to get hit by a car. host: let's hear from frank on the democrat line.

tucson, arizona. you are on with may gonzales, frank. >> hello. i'm a democrat voter calling from tucson, arizona. i watched all the debates. i've been watching politics for a few years now. the one year that i decided to leave and not vote for the democrat party was when president -- and i'm not blaming president obama is a good man, when he told me that it's a crime for me not to have health care and they decided to fine me for not having health care. since then, the democrat party is all about dictatorship, you're going to do what the government tells you to do, and now they are adding a bigger magnet for the illegal immigrants to come to our country, and it's unfair for the democrat party to try and help them people to make this treacherous trek across that border from their countries to

ours. and we've been helping them for years and their government has not changed their countries. --t: nathan gesell is, how gonzalez, how do you think the immigration issue will play for democrats? guest: i think it's too early to tell. partially it depends on who the nominee ends up being. for example, bette o'rourke of texas has said there shouldn't be any wall. not just construct a new wall, but there shouldn't be the barriers that are there. i think that could be problematic. i think the white house and the president are emboldened a little bit by the immigration issue. the president believes that his hard line on immigration, before the 2018 elections, was white -- why republicans were able to gain a couple of seats. i think the 2018 election, the stennett -- senate had more to do with driving that map. i think that's driving some of the action out of the white house. democrats would prefer to talk

about health care than immigration. i think republicans are going to bring that into the conversation. host: aside from solidifying his base, are there places you think the president or his campaign think they can make inroads with certainly people who didn't vote for trump last time? guest: the president's campaign manager has talked about expanding the map, going into places like new mexico. i guess it's possible. looking at the most recent election results there, republicans haven't done well except for having the governor. they don't have it anymore. they had the governorship for a while, and they don't have it anymore. it's possible to expand the map but i think the president and his job approval ratings have been pretty static. i'm not sure what's going to move it dramatically in one way or the other, which gives them a narrow path to reelection. host: here's matt from plano, texas. democrats line. and thankod morning you for c-span. a great discussion.

i wanted to comment on the dynamic that's happening in texas because senator cornyn is a republican, but depending on what happens between beddoe -- beddoe o'rourke -- bedo o'rourke and julian castro, that could easily become a tossup because republicans in the state are rightfully worried that they might lose texas. president trump only won it by nine points in 2016, and depending on -- there's a lot of interest to see what happens between bedo and julian because if one of them does not continue to run for president there's a lot of talk in that senate seat. i just want to see what nathan thinks about that. guest: texas, i wrestle with

where's a good place to put texas. i believe it is becoming more competitive. i don't believe it is in the tossup status quite yet. in the most recent senate ratings, we moved senator cornyn out of our solid republican category to a likely republican category, which is a more vulnerable place. i think it could get more competitive as it goes on. >> on behalf of the center of the brookings studio. i want to welcome you. we have a full house. this is not the first event in washington on this general topic. i think it's a fair question to ask why. why are we still on the murder of one individual? that's a topic that will come up in our discussion today, of course. two points are worth pointing out. first,