changed since c-span began 41 years ago, but our mission continues to provide an unfiltered view of government. already this year, we have brought you primary election coverage, the impeachment process, and now the federal response to the coronavirus. our publicch all of affairs programming online or our free radio app. and be part of the daily conversation through washington journal or our social media feeds. c-span not created by private industry, america's table companies, and brought our television provider. we're back with brian sozzi, editor at large at yahoo! finance. he is here to talk about how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting the american economy. guest: thank you for having me.

host: how does this $2 trillion stimulus package, how is it going to help our economy? what can we expect to see? there of bad to be news. all it does is club a whole in the u.s. economy. hole in the u.s. economy. you are going to see shocking economic data over the next few months where you might see upwards of a million jobs lost. the stimulus package is a big number. it just prevents a lot of companies from going bust and the stock market from coming under increasing pressure. a lot of the sources i talked to on wall street see this as a down payment for something intentionally larger in the second half of the year just to get the economy accelerated,

getting things going well into 2021. host: you are seeing people on wall street and in the business community saying they are going to need another stimulus package just to get things back on track. this $2 trillion is not enough? guest: you are right on. that is the reality of it. marriott, one of the biggest hotel chains in business, they are furloughing tens of thousands of workers. it is unclear when that demand will pick up. yesterday, i talked to the founder of growth help. -- of grubhub. $100 million in fees. it is unclear when demand will come back. i caution people that think the

u.s. economy will snap back in the second half of the year. that is false. year where thee u.s. unemployment 8%. might spike up to that is a long way from where we were at the beginning of the year. the economy does not just jumpstart. host: what are the business experts saying that the government needs to do right now? if the $2 trillion was not enough, what are they saying actually needs to be done to save the economy? guest: they need to come up with a bigger, more defined plan that is better targeted to industries. within this $2 trillion deal, one of the industries that was not included that has been hammered is the cruise line industry. in this package, the major

cruise lines were not given any relief. lawmakers did not want to put that in. they want to see companies based in the u.s. getting that money first. these are companies that employ thousands of people. they need to do something. , lot of these cruise lines they might have look at mergers. what does that cause? potentially more job layoffs. a lot of people calling this a bailout, that is the wrong term. this is a relief package. a lot of companies are going to need a lot more relief in the coming months. i look at the april employment report. when you lose over one million jobs in the month, those jobs do not come back overnight. host: you brought up the cruise companies. i will bring up what i heard people say about the cruise companies. a lot of those are not american companies. why should the u.s. government

give them a relief package when they are not based in the u.s.? they would have to reconsider where they are domiciled. something needs to change on that front. so many of these companies that international in waters so they do not pay higher taxes here in the u.s., but if you want relief, get it back in the u.s. these companies employ thousands of people. it is not just u.s. workers. it is international workers. where are you going to go? you are not going to work at a restaurant right now. those jobs are no longer going to be there. restaurants may not open after this black swan event. where do you go if you were just laid off? host: let me ask you this question, with all of the

economic information we are getting now, people looking at the stock market and unemployment numbers, what information are you watching to tell you how the economy is going to be tomorrow, next week, next month, for the rest of the year? guest: it is interesting you ask that. a lot of people on the street and business leaders are starting to say ignore the data that is coming in a couple of months. the stock market has predicted it. the stock market is a forward-looking indicator. that is absurd. you have to pay attention to the data. like i mentioned, the april job losses might be upward of one million. the worst month during the great recession during 2009 was 800,000. i'm looking at the osundairo brothers rate, which might spike close to 20 -- i am looking at the u.s. unemployment rate,

which might spike close to 20%. weeksk in a couple of when companies start to report their latest earnings results, you are going to see some shocking news. potential more layoffs, profits under severe pressure, potential business closures. that is the reality. that is where businesses are. our viewers remind that they can join this conversation. we are going to open up regional lines. if you are in the eastern or central time zone, you can call in and join this conversation at (202) 748-8000. if you are in the mountain or pacific time zones, you can call in at (202) 748-8001. we are going to open up a special line for those who are just recently unemployed. we want to hear from you. we want to know what industry you work in. we want to know when you got

laid off. if you are recently unemployed because of coronavirus or any other reason, we want to hear from you at (202) 748-8002. keep in mind, you can always text us at (202) 748-8003. we are always reading on social media, on twitter, and on facebook. brian, we have been talking about the economy in the macro level. let's talk about the micro level, the personal level. a lot of people are being laid off and furlough. what can we expect to see from the unemployment numbers in the future? guest: we just got a taste of it this week. each week you get initial jobless claims data. for the most part, for the last five years, this data has been boring. the unemployment rate 3.5%, 50

year low coming into march. now, the initial jobless claims data that it's every thursday is watched closely indicator. that hit 3.3 million. you might see that number increase close to 4 million per week if not even more, which brings us back to the april employment report. losing over a million jobs, and you might lose even more over the headline in may. that is a shocking number. i'm looking at a lot of the gig workers. and lyft, these are contractor driven. if you are quarantined at home, you are not jumping into

a lyft. this is not a mild recession. this is a pretty severe recession. host: defined for us what signifies a recession. i have someone who has just wrote in and said can your mind is what a black swan event is? guest: the technical definition of a recession is two quarters of an economic retraction. we will not know that officially from a technical standpoint within a couple of months from now. the consensus view is that we are now in a mild recession. that is the view on wall street. that could morph into a more severe recession, a sharper decline in gdp or economic output going into the third quarter. look at the stock market. 25%s&p 500 is down over from the february 19 hi.

that is a bear market. the stock market is saying we are probably in a more severe recession. in finance terms, a black swan event comes out of nowhere. you can predict business slowing down, but the coronavirus is not something that was on people's radar screens 12 months ago. that is why you are seeing to figure scrambling out how they are going to survive the next week or two weeks or month. gig: you just mentioned the employees. what type of employee is being affected the most? is it the restaurant industry? visit the travel industry? -- is it the travel industry? what kind of employee is affected the most? guest: out of all the industries

i have been studying, it is the restaurant industry. these restaurants, small independent chains, the pizza parlor on the corner of the street is closed. they have been closed two to three weeks. these businesses are the lifeblood of our economy. i talked to a lot of fast food chain ceos. in many respects our small businesses. they are primarily now just take out oriented. you cannot keep a restaurant profitable and keep people operatingy just delivery. retailers. i think retailers are in dire straits. a lot of them have cap employees on the payrolls despite stories being closed. the reckoning is coming. you will see a lot of furloughing of retail workers in

the weeks ahead. this is going to make things a lot worse. that is macy's, jcpenney's, even kohl's. let's have our viewers join in on this conversation. we will start with dave calling from new york. good morning. caller: good morning. i want to try to contract some of the things you are saying quick. one of the things with the bailouts is the federal reserve is printing money. it is going to buy corporate debt. corporate debt has been issued consistently over the last five years. they take that money and buy back their own stock. then the corporate executives cash out their stock options. with this bailout, you are bailing out their luxury homes on the ocean, their lamborghini,

there for ari. their fofeig -- rarri. that is a big thing. the bondholders will lose all their money. you are not bailing out the corporations, the company, you are bailing out the people that lend that company might. host: go ahead and respond. guest: i get the outrage. i'm no fan of stock buybacks. this situation is a little bit different from what we saw in 2008 and 2009. leading up to that, you had investment bankers on wall street take absolutely insane risks to line their pockets and get rich. since then you have seen a lot of regulation come into place on

wall street. if you are carnival cruise lines, royal caribbean, macy's, trying to do business on the up and up. this event came out of nowhere. orclose a department store cruise line overnight, that means you have no cash coming into your business. these are capital intensive businesses. because you do not have cash coming in, you will have no other choice but to lay off workers. i think the government should protectionsgreater to the money they are lending out, but a lot of these industries need relief. they need a yesterday. host: let's go to the top chef in new york. tasha in new york.

she was recently laid off. caller: i was working in the plastic surgery industry. i'm a per diem person. self-employed pretty much. i had a good business going. i was working for three different facilities. one was on fifth. one was in queens. i worked for another private plastic surgeon. my husband worked in the food industry. he lost his job before i did. made his way in the .igher echelons of manhattan basically everybody is out. everybody lost their job. i just want to tell the people that they just have to have faith in our government and the people that are above us because they need to help us. the way they can help us is for

us to be calm and believe that something good is going to happen soon. host: go ahead and respond. guest: my heart goes out to you and your family. i know this is tough stuff. i think what she brings up is key. business leaders thinking the economy can bounce back quickly and this is a blip on the radar screen. treasury secretary steven mnuchin said this will come back quickly, and the economic data they will see in the coming weeks he said is useless. this is not useless. this is the definition of a black swan event. she and her husband were working. things were going well. the coronavirus comes out of nowhere. they will have to adjust how they spend and plan for retirement. how is the economy going to

survive this and handle it over the next three to five years? play sound for you from president trump, who said he was targeting easter as the day the country could relax social distancing and bring people back to work. [video clip] >> ultimately the goal is to ease the guidelines and open things up to large sections of our country as we near the end of our battle with the invisible enemy. we win. i said earlier today that i hope we can do this by easter. i think that would be a great thing for our country, and we are all working very hard to make that a reality. we will be meeting with a lot of people to see if it can be done. easter is a very special day for me, for a lotor

of our friends. what a great timeline this would be. easter as our timeline. is always theity health and safety of the american people. i want everyone to understand that we are continuing to evaluate the data. we are working with the task force and making decisions based on what is best for the interests of our fantastic country. host: that is what president trump said about opening the economy by easter. how does that resonate in the financial and business community? guest: it really did not. a lot of folks i talked to, eir openings are being delayed until mid to late april. retailers were supposed to open this weekend.

they are starting to push back those reopened dates until the end of april. a lot of the folks i have talked to in the business community view it as the right thing to do. a lot of them have strong financials. they can survive this for the next two or three months. i get where the president is coming from. you want to pick up the economy. you want the economy going in the right direction before the election. the economy could pick up strongly. if you have the fed with a stimulus package, the government with a $2 trillion plan, but the key thing is get the american people healthy and then reopen businesses. you don't want chaos. you don't want to open up the mall, get infections rising again and then have the economy thisng into turmoil summer. that is not the right way to think about it. host: here is the question i'm interested in.

a lot of these businesses have closed their doors. a lot of these businesses are furloughing people. when they reopen their doors, do they expect to get the same employees that? -- back? do they have to retrain people before they can reopen? guest: i will not say retrain. a lot of these people they are furloughing, those are people with institutional knowledge of the company. those are the people that marriott calls back first. i'm concerned what hourly wages these workers come back with. we have seen a lot of companies across the board cut hourly wages across the board for those that are still working. as they come back, they might have a check coming in, but is it at a lower pay rate? these companies are concerned if

sales will pick up in the later half of the year. at some point these people will come back to work, but the question is how much money are they going to be making? host: let's go back to our phone lines and talk to eric, who is calling from california. good morning. caller: good morning, america. thanks for giving this opportunity to speak. when you see the president trying to fulfill bible prophecy by moving the embassy to jerusalem, this is causing these .ypes of reactions spiritually, he called on the unseen army of the dead from the north. the president called it a hoax. he is costing people's lives. then they use pride and go celebratingndays

race cars going around racetracks. now you see the bible prophecies being fulfilled. i agree with you on this economy . nobody ever thought about this. even having the conversation today, still with this individual misrepresenting the truth. in placesnd ourselves we never have done before. the president is trying to fulfill bible prophecies. now we have all this money to do this. host: go ahead and respond. i could make a lot of economic tie-ins. i don't know that i could tie in bible prophecy. this is a black swan event. you have a lot of confusion in

corporate america. people are being laid off. has the administration made all the right decisions? absolutely not. i think the bigger story is how does the u.s. economy kickback into gear? i think you're going to need something even bigger the back half of the year to get the economy going in the right direction. shape at thene beginning of the year. we just have to get back there. some of your recent stories, you have highlighted some industries that are seeing a spike amid all of this coronavirus. what are some of the businesses out there that are still doing pretty good in the middle of this pandemic? host: i go back to grow -- i go back to grubhub.

we are seeing a boom in the food delivery space. a lot of these companies are delivered to people's homes because they cannot go out. seen almart, i have not roll of toilet paper in my local target or walmart going on three weeks. you are seeing supermarket chains doing very well. is the suddenly bleach hottest thing at the supermarket. i have not seen a bottle of bleach going on over a month. clorox, walmart, target, those companies that are playing into panic buying. we just talked to hormel's ceo. they make spam. sales of spam is off to a

record-setting pace this year. people are buying a lot of canned goods. host: let's go back to our phone lines. let's talk to eddie calling from india. caller: good morning. brian, i am proud of you for saying the world does not revolve around wall street. towns have never recovered. i understand what you're saying. amen for that. i have a question for you. who in the world is going to buy all of this debt from america since all the countries, nations are going to be just about as broke as we are in the united states? thank you for telling the truth about everything. i have always felt like wall street was always a place that was too big to fail. host: go ahead and respond.

guest: you bring up an important question. our debt levels, we were not in a good place coming into this black swan event. in the light of this $2 trillion stimulus plan, they are not looking too well. this is an issue that has gone overlooked by many economists. we did this week see an interesting development. the s&p reiterated their aaa credit rating on the united states. aaa is the best rating you can get. they did note they could move to a negative watch. that is important for a lot of investors. if you get a downgrade on the countries credit rating, the cost of borrowing goes up. what happens then is you go into a spiral. we saw social security and

medicare payments that are not going anywhere. they are going higher because of retiring baby boomers. at some point that they are reckoning will have to come -- day of reckoning will have to come. it is just not coming today or tomorrow. host: let's go to terry. caller: i was calling because one of the things i was upset about in this package is people are getting checks from the government that are still employed and working. i don't understand why people that are not affected like the they arealler like really impacted and hurt by the situation, they would need help. people that are working, i don't understand why they would be getting checks. it seems crazy.

my second point would be i think we could pay a lot of this debt back if they just legalized it.juana and taxed it is legal in colorado. i'm sure that has generated a lot of income. host: go ahead and respond. guest: within this plan, if you $75,000, you get $1200. couple and00 for a $500 per child. is it perfect? no. if you are working and you get one of these checks, the question is where your hours reduced?

a lot of companies are cutting hourly rates. you may need this check to pay your rent and get your food. host: a lot of people are focusing on the tax return you may need this check to pay yourprovision. what year did you have to last file tax returns to qualify for that check? guest: i believe they are using the 2018 tax returns. ,ost: let's go to elizabeth calling from california. good morning. caller: good morning. how are you? host: just fine. go ahead. caller: i'm on social security. that's all i get. this year i get a $19 increase in my social security, and a live in a senior apartment upplex, and my rent went

$35. from what i heard so far, i don't know if anybody on social security is going to get anything. i have some physical problems, and i cannot work. for72, so i cannot apply disability. i'm wondering if social security people get anything. ono i would like to comment one of the governors the other day said they had a deal with a ppe's for get all the the nurses and doctors, and the company called back later and said we cannot do the deal with you anymore because we've got somebody who is going to pay a higher price.

i worry about that. i certainly hope that the thatrs and the governors have to do with these companies remember that. host: go ahead and respond. guest: i do not see anything in this planhost: regarding social security beneficiaries. it is something i will have to look more into. toill encourage elizabeth hop on the phone and call the owners of her facility. there is tremendous deflation. prices are going down across the economy. we have seen oil prices crash. are a the time if you consumer and you are in this situation, get on the phone and call the building manager, call your landlord and say i need relief. a lot of these landlords are up against it right now.

if anything good is coming out of this, it is that consumers have a lot of bargaining power. host: to help answer that question, i'm looking at a story that came out of mcclatchy news that sayssterday millions of americans are about to receive checks from the government, including recipients of social security. $1200 under the $2 trillion coronavirus relief package. an additional $500 will be paid out for independence. securitywho get social payments will also get money. those with supplemental security income and those who have little or no income. that answers that question. let's go to michael, calling

from michigan. good morning. hello. thank you very much. host: go ahead. caller: i have a couple of questions. is sent to the markets when politicians sell off millions of dollars in stocks? how would americans be benefited if our government was not paying over $600 billion a day in interest on our debt? thank you. host: go ahead and respond. guest: i share your distaste on dumpeditician that that stock. that is disgusting. clearly had some insight into what was coming down the pipe.

i suspect there will be a day of reckoning for those politicians once things settle down. that story is not going anywhere. that is not the right thing for you to be doing when you are a lawmaker. households, you just do not do that. should government officials be allowed to own any stocks? we will leave it there. the country has a lot of debt. the debt is only going to increase exponentially in the months and years to come. some point the stock market could be negatively hurt because of that. now thanks tot the federal reserve and 0% interest rates. host: the wall street journal had a chart that compares the coronavirus package to the

package that came during the last recession, the american recovery and reinvestment act of 2009. brought $700ram economy in 2008 and the economic stimulus act of 2008. what lessons can we take from the last time the government had to pump in 2008 and the economic stimulus act oy like this? greatert: putting regulations and preventing the risk-taking that companies do. i'm not a fan of stock buybacks. what i'm seeing in the stimulus plan i do not like in terms of limitations on stock buybacks. there should be more done. if you are giving money to a public company, and they are going to go out later in the year and buyback stocks, do not

do that. if anything good came out of the great recession in 2008 2009, more regulation on wall street. wall street loves to buy a lot of risky stocks. we have not seen that type of egregious behavior after that situation. should there be more precautions? sure. did we get them? no. in the next bill, there will probably be more oversight. let's see if we can get in a couple more calls. let's start with millie from connecticut. caller: good morning. thank you for all the information you are giving to us. in the not making much category that you mentioned earlier. the 1099 people fall into

this stimulus package? several distillery companies in our area making hand sanitizer. believed homegrown businesses would crop up based on what is going on. people that think people are buying so much stuff because they are orders, you have to think about the people they are buying for, disabled people and elderly people. let's not always think the worse. the 1099, how do >> to my knowledge, if you filed your taxes turn in 2018, you

should begin the check from the government. you got an ecstasy care dollars per week, so the government in that respect did the job and i echo your sentiments of worry. we see a lot of the stores putting in measures to prevent hoarding, but people are buying for families. we are now going on for a month. >> douglas, good morning. >> good morning, america. please, one quick question, are we going back to 1985, 1930, 1840?

how far back is humanity going? humanityt know how far has gone back here, but i will say this. the world is not ending and we will recover from it. is not like 2008, 2009 which a lot of people now call the great recession. this event is a true roundhouse kick that came out of nowhere. we're seeing the stimulus plan come in here, the economy will pick back up. where i do agree with the president is that there will be a lot of demand to go back to a restaurant, devise and new clothes for back-to-school shopping, deporting your house i three months, to buy yourself a little gift for the holiday shopping season.

this is not a structural issue in the economy, i do agree with many lawmakers on that front. this is an event that came out of nowhere. i think by december, january, even the first quarter of next year, the economy will be in much better standing. the next three months will be tough. you will see numbers in terms of unemployment that you have never before seen in your lifetime. things will get better quicker than people think. let's take one more call, maryland from illinois. good morning. caller: good morning. as theyn the heartland call this country. i know a lot of farmers. trump reduced taxes to the corporations.

why can't the money that they saved not paying the government taxes, why can't they use that money that they have stockpiled and pay their employees? trump has been trying plus the republicans to reduce all of the regulations so that they can get away with what they used to get away with, the companies, the corporations. host: go ahead and respond. guest: i hear what she is saying. paye tax cuts, they went to rising health care costs, higher defense spending. thist to push back on notion that you have corporate america out there taking insane risks. so many of the companies i talked to, they are not in that

same mindset. they are not taking insane risks, leveraging up their balance sheet and making stupid acquisitions. it is not the same situation. these companies were hit with a roundhouse kick. they are trying to deal with an event that they have never had to deal with before in their lifetime. a lot of leaders are operating by the seat of their pants. he will get through this. where should we have our eyes next week when it comes to the economy and the financial market? guest: the jobs report. the interesting thing about the jobs report for march, you might see an increase in jobs upwards of 90,000. it does not reflect the standstill that has occurred in the past couple of weeks, which means the april jobs report that

will come out in early may is one of the most critical financial reports in the last five to 10 years. you need to pay attention to that. i am watching the u.s. nonfarm payrolls report. host: we would like to thank brian sozzi, editor at lar

>> share your experiences dealing with the coronavirus pandemic and ask experts your questions. join our live conversation every morning on washington journal, which starts at 7:00 a.m. eastern and more live conversation weeknights at 8:00 p.m. eastern for washington journal prime time. announcer: today come on newsmakers, the top republican on the house energy and commerce committee talks about how congress and the administration are addressing the coronavirus pandemic and the $2 trillion economic aid package passed by congress. our guest, carbon greg walden of oregon. on c-span. today president trump spoke to reporters on his way to a sendoff ceremony for the naval hospital ship