p.m. eastern on c-span, online at c-span.org, or listen live on the free c-span radio app. washington isin henry olson, the senior fellow at the ethics and public policy center. good friday morning. thanks for being with us. for being with us. guest: thanks for having me on. host: he has been referred to as teflon don, bouncing back from bad tweets or that new spirit how do you view the president four months before the election? guest: i think he is in a weakened position. he has slumps and bumps. he is in his most extended slump since 2017 and he has not seen a bump. i think a stick figure out how to get back on the track and he needs to figure out how to project calm, stable leadership that america wants in a crisis.

he has not been doing it and that is why he has been slumping. time does he have enough to turn things around? guest: he has enough time, especially given what your previous guest talked about, the lack of serious, in-depth knowledge about his opponent, joe biden, but he has to change his game -- he cannot be the same, divisive, tweeting person that he has been in the next few months that he has been the last few years. he has to be able to roll with the punches and go with the flow . if you can't do that, he might bounce back a little bit, but he is not going to win this election host:. in a recent washington post op-ed you wrote the following, "he tweets versus something objectionable, his numbers drop, then bounce back where they were before the event. in theppened three times 2016 race, most notably after the release of the excess hollywood tape that many thought ruined his candidacy. it has also happened numerous notedsince 2018 when he

pardoning his former campaign chairman, paul manafort are in the government shutdown, during the summer months of 2019, as he took on the squat, and then later in the fall as impeachment became a reality. trump weathered each storm and bounce back a strong or stronger than he previously been. what is different about this time? nott: the president has stepped back. what typifies some of these times is a moment of some contrition, like after access where he, or a period is not the person making news with his attacks. the other times or more normal politics. what we are looking at now is two national crises and an thetity crises, and president has not provided the

sort of decisive leadership and often uses those as examples or platforms of which to launch into a petulance and grievance-based assault on the media. that is not what americans wanted when he stops doing that, i will -- i think he will start to see his numbers come back. there is a story that a number of senior aides and cabinet members of the george w. bush administration are prepared to publicly support joe biden. what is that tell you about the state of the republican party? guest: two things. the 43 for joe biden campaign, which is what you are referring to, there is nobody that is significant that has yet to put the name on it, they are minor officials in the w. administration. i think what it does tell us is there is a minority of people in the republican party that want the people to move. in a different direction the bulk of the party voters might might -- but they want

people to move on. people involved in the administration disagree and they would rather choose to switch parties and said with democrats than work with fellow republicans. of thes us an example possibility of a small realignment going on with respect to republicans who really were not that into seriously challenging the democratic-led establishment. host: in the story that broke journal"e "wall street website, peter thiel shying away from the 2020 trump campaign. he is a venture capitalist, the co-finder of paypal, but is telling friends and supporters that he plans to sit out the election because he thinks real action is increasingly a long shot for the president. when you hear that, your reaction? guest: peter is a very idiosyncratic individual, so i think this is in keeping with

his past performance and past pattern, but he is right. it is very difficult to see a path for reelection for the president. it requires the president to change his game, changes style very quickly in a way that he is do.proven able to if i were peter thiel and i were making an investment based on the odds, i would be making the same beds that he makes -- bets that he makes. host: and we are talking about those republicans are aligned with democrats -- george conway, conway,and of kellyanne part of the lincoln project, and this latest ad after the revelation from the "new york times" that there may have been evidence of russians pain taliban troops. navy graduate, x navy seal, and the founder of veterans for responsible leadership. months ago, donald learned russians were paying bounties for dead american soldiers in afghanistan.

it.hose to do nothing about any commander in chief with a spine would be stopping the of the--shit out russians right now. mr. trump, you are either a coward who cannot stand up to an x kgb goon, or you are complicit. --ake the left, done-owning gun-owning veteran. i see trump for what he is, a coward. we need to send this coward back to -- this draft dodger back to his golf courses. adt: your reaction to that in the larger issue of this effort by the lincoln project. guest: it strikes me as a demagogue word salad. strains belief to think that

president joe biden would be asymmetrically engaging russia in warfare over this when, in fact, that is not what large nationstates do. did duringhat obama the obama administration, or as he likes to say during the obama-biden administration. it is another attempt to throw mud at the wall and see what sticks. i think the lincoln project is not very effective. i think there are no serious republicans, people who are still republicans that would be moved by ads like this. what it is doing, mainly, is providing air cover in the media for joe biden, but it is not going to have any effect on the ground, which is to say if you are basically a pro-life conservative republican, you are very likely to be backing trump, even reluctantly, and the lincoln project is not making an impact. host: brad pascal, the manager, incampaign

an op-ed published in "the washington post," and available online, taking aim at the biden campaign and trying to frame the election this way. he wrote the following "'s bush ratings file to the lowest point, that red a headline in the new york times. a fraughtdescribed atmosphere among the electorate with growing angst over the iraq war and concerns over domestic security. 16 years later president trump faces the same headlines. his reelection campaign is well-positioned to spread his progrowth economic agenda and contrast to the president to a 47-year career politician joe biden. your reaction. guest: i think that it's a nice way to frame the election, but there are two issues. the president's job approval rating is at 41%. george w. bush's job approval

rating was nowhere close to as low as that in june or july of 2004. the president needs to change himself noted to move up, then he becomes credible talking about things like the economy, talking about things like the biden record, talking about things like if you still want washington shaken up, why should you trust someone who has spent his entire adult life in washington. if the president doesn't establish his own credibility, all of those contrasts will not wash with the undecided voter that will decide the election. host: the me go back to brad pascal and what he wrote in "washington post," "biden, like hillary clinton in 2016, is been a central part of the washington system that voters opposed in 20 and are doing so again. is near half-century-long medical career is littered with terrible decisions that have had disastrous effects on the american middle class over the

past four decades. the campaign, writes brad pascoe, has only just did -- has begun to define biden, a 47 year politician whose actions have decimated american working families and betrayed black americans. guest: president trump needs make this a choice -- president biden needs to make this a choice selection. if it would have been a referendum on obama, it could have been much closer we could've seen a romney victory, but by look -- my saying it is about a choice, which direction do you want, people voted for obama. the thing is the president needs to do this himself. he needs to be disciplined. he needs to be focused, and he needs to present an alternative that is acceptable, and that alternative has to be somebody that isn't snark tweeting his

24/7, three headed 65, and actually acts like the president. if he does that and shows people that he has grown in office, he is the credibility to make this attack, otherwise it will not be seen as credible by the key voters who are going to decide the election. those key voters, the book you wrote in 2017, the working-class republicans, ronald reagan, and the return of blue-collar conservatives, where were those voters? guest: they are still largely behind trump, but not in large enough numbers to provide him the victory. he needs to get his numbers up among those and his numbers among what i call the reluctant trump voters, the college educated, suburban, moderate, conservative voter decided in late october even though they had misgivings about trump they would vote for him over hillary clinton because they preferred his policies. inse voters voted democrat 2018, and those voters remain

uncomfortable with the president . if he can't win those voters back and increases numbers among his blue collar conservative base, the we are just talking about the margin of victory for biden -- then we are talking about the margin of victory for biden. host: we are talking with henry olsen. calls.et to your phone republican line, new york. good morning. caller: good morning. i know a number of people have been calling in and saying president trump is incompetent handling the coronavirus. i wanted to refute that. back in february, the house was notified about the coronavirus, and they chose to it nor it because they -- to ignore it because they were in the impeachment hearings and and beforey -- oh, that, tom cotton, republican senator, is the one who told us first about the virus. he was plagiarized for that.

subsequently, a number of , through insider trading, sold their family and ends and sold off all of their possibly its to downfall, and i remember dianne feinstein said, it's not my fault. my husband did it. could you comment on these two things? host: thank you. henry olsen? guest: i think a lot of the criticism of the president's handling of coronavirus is partisanship. he would have been distracting the country from the important questions of impeachment and ukrainegate. win with a large segment of the national media. i watched every democratic debate, particularly for 2020, and i do not recall any of those

people talking about the coronavirus coming. it was so obvious, as it is being reported now, why weren't they talking about it? it was not obvious. it was a difficult decision. i think the president has got the response pretty reasonably well. host: does the president have self-discipline -- self-discipline? not shown it. he likes to spew his messages. he likes to think in terms of 24-hour, 40 a eight-hour media cycle, rather 48-hour media-- cycle, rather than a large effort to bring a point home and he has not shown signs of changing his stripes. host: the article linking russia kill a troops,o yourounty story, what is

thought? examplehis is another of a moderately reported or moderately sourced story blown up to bring problems for president trump. this is a pattern throughout his administration. why should we expected to change? do you do?ue, what what would president biden do? i do not think president biden would do more than deliver a stern rebuke to putin and minor sanctions because, quite likely, that is not something presidents -- that is what presidents do. i don't think president biden would have used this to bring the intact -- break the entire structure of the u.s.-russia relationship, particularly because that is not something our european allies would have wanted. i think this story is likely overblown, but even if it's not, i don't think the risk wants would have been what the media

is suggesting it would be because that's not what presidents do. the: in this case, president did not think him is did not know about it. his written daily brief. apparently he did not read it. is that damaging? i would say what is the national security adviser telling them? what is the secretary of state telling him? he is not the only one who reads these briefs. if his national security apparatus is not coming to him and saying, this is important. we are going to elevate this from a fact in a paper to an action point that needs to be prioritized, that puts an entirely different ballpark, and the fact that you are not hearing that, you're not hearing that his nsa's remaking appointed that, you are not hearing that the command in afghanistan was saying, please pay attention to that, suggests to me this story is overblown. host: but could it damage the president?

that narrative for donald trump? guest: i think it can hurt donald trump for people who have artie convince themselves they don't what donald trump. i do not think it will scare people -- you have already convince themselves they don't want donald trump. i do not think it will scare people who support trump. i do not think it will sway undecided people. , this is hishiff reaction to the story, with subsequent briefings from the trump white house. [video clip] rep. schiff: as we look at these -- i am going to call them allegations -- number one, the president of the united states should not be inviting russia into the g7 or g8. we should be considering what sanctions are appropriate to further deter russia's malign activities, not further ingratiating russia into the community of civilized nations.

and i find it inexplicable, in light of these very public allegations, that the president has not come before the country and assured the american people he will get to the bottom of whether russians are putting a bounty on the heads of american troops and he will do everything in his power to protect american troops. i do not understand why the president is not saying this to the american people and is i don't know, i haven't heard, i haven't been briefed. that's not excusable. his responsibility as commander-in-chief is to protect our troops. i show the concern with the white house today, that i think many of us have, which is there may be a reluctance to brief the president on things he does not want to hear. that may be more true with respect to putin and putin's russia than with respect to any other subject matter. that is adam schiff, the chair of the house intelligence committee. henry olsen, your reaction?

guest: more politics. this is a man who exaggerated every piece of fact that comes to him with respect to the president's actions with foreign policy. who helped empower putin? ,t was the obama administration saying that the bush administration was too tough on putin. it was the obama administration who refuse to provide legal aid to the ukrainians. please, don't tell me you were tough on russia unless you are criticizing your own party' is present at the time for actions that enabled putin to rebuild the russian military and become the adventurer he is. host: good morning. caller: good morning. -- [indiscernible] without electing a

black woman or whatever -- i think you should nominate mr. goes tosomeone who putin. if we don't have a strong background with putin, we can't win. i know he goes to bed laughing. we are acting so stupid with president trump, it seems like putin, putin, putin. if we don't have a good background with our secretary and our vice president as regards mr. putin, we are going to be in the same predicament we are with president trump. biden is nice, but still he is going to have to stand up and not let obama, al sharpton push him to elect a black woman in order to win president. i have been a democrat all my life, but i am not going to vote for him if he goes for a woman to be vice president.

. hate to be that way our country is in a bad way now. we don't have anything for our children. we have children that are coming up to run this country and if we don't get some kind of respect now, we aren't going to have any more. they laugh at us going to bed and they wake up in the morning laughing at us. palmetto,k you, from floor to. ats is an opinion piece bloomberg news. flood room putin able to stay in power until 2036. the headline -- the west consistently undermines -- underestimates his willingness to take extreme risks. next project -- building a buffer zone around russia. your thoughts? guest: i think the west needs to think what it was to do with russia. russia is clearly trying to re-exert power, both their near

, regimesd overseas like venezuela, sending its submarines to test nato differences in the north atlantic. but china is the country that is nearly nine times as large as russia. it is building its military faster. nuclearilding strategic forces and it is the country that in a decade will pose much more of a threat to us than russia. i think a smart strategy would be to think, what role are we going to assign to russia? enemy?y an implacable are they an untrustworthy, but still valuable ally. that is something that russia and america needs to confront. we need to build up our military so we can fight two fronts at once. the european front against russia and the pacific front

against china and that will be very difficult to sell to the american people. this is the headline from fox.com. "russia just pave the way for putin to be president for life." louisiana. you are on. caller: good morning. i am a 79-year-old white guy from louisiana. ever time i listen to mr. olson, i agree with him more. it's like he's when to say what i am thinking. a couple points -- is such a terrible thing, if you go back -- if the, coronavirus is such a terrible thing, if you go back to march 4, mrs. pelosi, they were all at the hall of fame at march 4. that was a problem men. about one other thing i want to put up. here is what i think about america. we are sheep without a shepherd. we don't know how to be alone. so we wander around this desert,

following the wrong gods home. but the flock cries out for another, and they keep answering that bell. i do not know who the messiah is going to be. we can only put up with so much and is going to come to an end. i think this pretty white house capitol behind you, steve, that is getting to be like a brothel. it's really getting -- republicans and democrats. host: hey, ken. thanks because the next time we will have you sing that song. don't be a stranger. first-time caller. henry olsen? think there were a lot of people angry at both parties. that is one thing you could discern from brad persky all -- parscale's article

you read earlier. he wants to channel that anger. the president needs to show he is a capable leader who can channel that if he wants to win the election. host: mike, in toronto, kansas. good morning. steve. good morning, thank you for taking my call. host: we are glad to hear from you. yes, good morning. couple yes, i got a questions. with all the things going on on the streets right now and all the trouble going around the world with the coronavirus -- with the government taking down ae statues, i've got question. they are taking down lincoln. it's not about the civil war, i don't think, but if it is about the civil war, the democratic party, themselves, they were the ones on the wrong side. how did they end up being the heroes of the black community

when lincoln was actually, in the north, was the hero of the black community. there was 400,000 people died in the civil war. how much do you have to give up? host: thank you. things for the call. we will get a response. -- thanks for the call. we will get a response. guest: the black community did vote for the republican party all the way through the first world war. two things changed. one was the great depression, and which great -- in which blacks lost their jobs in great numbers. and they switched to the democrats. and then the civil rights era of 1964, it was the democrats who were most loudly behind it, and it was a large number of

republicans, allied with southern democrats, who tried to stop that. republicans nominated barry goldwater in 1964, who was an opponent of the civil rights act, and that helped set the idea that as bad as them across, in many cases, had been, the remaining blacks who were looking at this started to switch to the democrats who were for the civil rights act of 1964 in the have managed to keep the allegiance of the black community ever since. host: i want to get your reaction. this is a headline from an opinion piece in "the washington post." "john roberts has gone kennedy." justice retired, a swing vote. the is your view of performance of the chief justice in his recent rulings? guest: yes, i wrote an op-ed on this and which i hypothesize trying toroberts is

do is preserve the independence of the court in the face of progressive efforts to pack the court. after the kavanaugh the mission there were specific as anger on the left and you heard arguments that we should expand the number of supreme court justices, and i think with the chief justice may the thinking is, if i can side with them to show it's not an majority on key issues, such as the abortion case in louisiana where he was the deciding vote, they will put packd to their efforts to the court. we will see over the coming term whether he continues that we will see whether it is successful, whether or not will beo pack the court held in abeyance if the democrats retake control of the senate and the white house. appointed by george w.

bush, and during his testimony before the senate judiciary, john roberts using the umpire analogy on how he fuses will as chief justice. let's watch. [video clip] roberts: judges don't make the rules. they apply them. the role of an umpire and the judge is critical. they make sure everybody plays by the rules, but it is a limited role. nobody ever went to a ballgame to see the umpire. the humilityo have to recognize they operate within byystem of precedent shaped other judges equally striving to live up to the judicial oath. and judges have to have the modesty to be open in the decisional process to be considered views of their colleagues on the bench. host: henry olsen, what are you hearing from john roberts 15 years ago? i am hearing is

someone who is not that different than the person he is today. i think the latter phrase "listening to his colleagues on the bench" is particularly important. he would prefer not to be the overturningot precedent set by liberal majorities. that is something he did not want to do, going back to the obamacare case where he was the fifth vote that upheld the constitutionality of obamacare. wherek he would prefer questions have to be decided that there be a consensus and where there's not a consensus, he will defer action to avoid putting the court in a position of bending preferences, whether it is political preferences or president. that means on certain cases he members of the4 left, because the alternative is, to him, unacceptable. host: we are talking to henry

and publicthe ethics policy center. we are speaking to one need a -- from north carolina. caller: good morning. i am 81 years old today, as a matter of fact. host: well, happy birthday. caller: the last three years -- state ofpset at the our country. i did not vote for donald trump. i was not thrilled with the choices i had this election, but i saw in donald trump, what he showed me personally is he is a, vulgar, offensive, loudmouthed bully, and i could not morally support him. i question the intelligence and judgment of those who do, but that is beside the point.

i am left, at this point in my life, coming from an extremely patriotic young woman to a person who hesitates to salute the flag anymore. i do not trust our judiciary, although i think the supreme court is a little more reasonable than i thought they would be. the last debacle of supreme hearings turned me against them. i do not trust our executive branch most of all. i do not trust congress. and i do not trust the judiciary. so, i don't know how many more , but i have on this earth i am afraid they are going to be sad ones. thank you for taking my call. ta, let's end on a happy note. wishing you a happy 83rd

birthday and wishing you many, many more. hearing a lot of anxiety from her comments. guest: in. it's difficult to look at our country and not see a country that is at war with itself. not literal war. but war, whether it is the question of trump's fitness or itling down statues or what means to be an american. it's a difficult time to be an american. and in the absence of a leader who provides a unifying vision that can give people hope, that is something that is likely to continue. you look at vice president biden, and he does not seem to be able to do that, despite having some nice speeches from time to time, and you look at president trump and he does not seem able to do it. maybe we have to suffer for a few more years. the trump is how campaign is framing one of the newest debates, the issue of defund the police, something we have heard from the marches following the death of george foley. this just released from the

camping overnight. [video clip] 911 policerage the light -- you have reached the 911 police line. due to the defunding of police, there is no to take your call. press -- a rape, to report a murder, press -- the estimated wait time is five days. , yourhenry olsen reaction? guest: i think it is an effective ad. moves thee how it needle. people hear about defunding the police, but it may not be something that affects their own community and you have vice president biden who has distanced himself from those movements. that is one thing biden has done very well, keeping the energy of the left by attacking trump, but

defining trump's ability to take fromm by stepping away things like tearing down statues of george washington or defunding the least. it will be difficult to make that message stick if biden continues to step away from the things. host: denise, good morning. you are on with henry olsen. maner: i disagree with this and chief justice john roberts -- he is simply trying to preserve his image in history. both made big mistakes when they made it easy rights over the voter's act of 1964. it's obvious to them that black votingority people are in the red states over and over again and he is trying to make up for a big mistake that he and alito made.

defunding the police does not crap we have just seen. it means we are changing the definition of what we see from the police on the streets today. he is not to be a psychiatrist. he does not have to be a doctor. he cannot be every thing to everyone. change so he will no longer be the bully he has become. and being a bully is exactly the truth. it seems to be a disease that this guyof them, like who murdered the man in minneapolis, becomes a bully, little by little, all of them start acting in the same fashion . they have ruined the job themselves, and they have only themselves to blame. host: thank you, denise. a lot there. henry olsen? guest: yeah, i think with

respect to the police needs to be how do you train them better so they make the right decisions? that is one thing that comes from the atlanta shooting -- honestly, that is the case of someone who made a terrible decision in a moment of panic when he should have been trained not to shoot a fleeing man in the back. with respect to what she was saying about the voting rights decision, there's simply no evidence that black or brown or whatever minority voters are being kept from voting. the is a myth propagated on left as much as voter fraud is a myth prop get on the right. the fact is we do not have massive voter fraud. we do not have mass voter suppression. we have high turnouts. we have high minority turnouts. actthe voting rights turnover that roberts and alito

supported has had no effect on elections whatsoever. down thes need to calm rhetoric because the legitimacy of our elections, ultimately the legitimacy of our democracy -- if we are casting about unjustified claims, all we are doing is tearing down the thing we value most. our next color is from missouri on the independent line. carla, good morning. is fromext caller missouri on the independent line. good morning. mr. olsen is a real common sense at guest. i was a republican for years. i got thrown out of my boarding

house for making signs for eisenhower during the election. bush theenchanted by elder for some reason. i can't remember what it was. will have a big effect on this election is all of this rioting. are afraid people that this country is sinking into anarchy. community. small it's very republican or conservative, i should say, and people are afraid. with all the statute destruction and burning buildings, that is townews as far as small america is concerned, and i think that will sway voters. i think people are afraid that influenced too much by the far left. i don't think he is. i think he's a rather moderate

democrat. but i think he is being influenced during the election, when we get closer to the election, he is going to be swayed more and more by the far left. carla, we will get a response. thank you very much for the call. guest: i think that is something that is very much on voters' minds. when i talk to republicans, they talk about the rioting. they talk about the violence. it's not just a small town thing. the question is, is that on minds as well, the kind of person who is not as partisan. we don't know that yet. it's quite obvious that what biden is trying to do is unite the democratic coalition, and that means he is swinging left on a variety of issues to keep progressives behind him, even though he is far from their first voice -- choice. so far, he has avoided making missteps that will give him a

high profile stances that are likely to hurt him. but if there's more rioting, if there's a recurrence of the violence as this summer heats up, then he's good to have to take a stand. where does he stand? does he stand with the far-left, which takes a more benign view of this, or does he stand with the people whose homes are being destroyed and whose businesses are being destroyed? if the violence picks up, i think biden will have to make a choice and how he chooses is going to have a large determination on whether he is able to continue his large lead. host: robert, good morning. caller: yes. one of the provisions of what i would consider a good constitution was advocated by george mason. he said that he did not want one man having all that power. he wanted a three-person presidency. oneis case, he wanted

copresident from the north, one from the middle states, and one from the south. three copresidents, one elected each two years. likelihoodreduce the of what william f buckley -- buckley used to call the prosecutorial spasm, which is what we had in 2016 -- oh, what was it? when our current president was elected. host: got the point. thank you, robert. we will get a response. guest: what of the things we need to look at is whether or not our constitution need some -- one of the things we need to look at is whether our constitution need some updating. for a di not designed

country split into two parties of roughly equal strength to continue to block the other party. that is what we have had for the last 20 or so years. it has increased partisanship. it has increased frustration. most other countries have a way of picking those deadlocks so things happen in an effective way while maintaining free partisan politics, and i think if we need to make constitutional changes to allow that to happen that will probably be for the good. -- our callersk from california, richard, good morning. good morning. i'm 77. the gop and donald trump are in with the dictators. they are trying to -- i think -- coronavirus was created it was from germany and china

and trump is using it, they are using it and they want to make donald trump a dictator. and his boss is putin from russia. he needs to be taken out and charged with treason. a lot of people have died because of him. host: thank you for the call. henry olsen, what are you hearing from them? guest: i am hearing from him what a lot of democrats believe. i do not think the president was to be a dictator. i think the president is somebody who has his strengths and has his weaknesses, but you take a look at what dictators do area dictators shut down outlets,n press dictators but opposition people in jail, dictators restrict elections, and in fact, dictators do not allow what happened in 2018 -- which is one of the greatest opposition party

landslides in a midterm in decades. there's simply no evidence that trump is either a want to be dictator or a person who is in sellith foreign leaders to out america. that's partisan hyperbole that is helping to destroy our country. finally, in some circles -- john -- james carville put forward this morning on "morning joe" that the president might not seek reelection. see any scenario where the president would not seek reelection this year? guest: i think there is a very, unlikely scenario. the lbj scenario, president johnson was a brawler. he was a strong political fighter, but in the wake of the protests in the vietnam war and in the wake of the protests in the street and in the wake of his surprisingly strong challenge from eugene mccarthy

in the new hampshire primary, his psyche buckled and he said, i'm not going to put myself in the country through it and he said he was not going to run for reelection. the president is down in the polls. the president has been the subject of four years of unbelievably harsh criticism. if,ould not surprise me over the july 4 of weekend or shortly thereafter, in consultation with his family, he decided it just wasn't worth it. i don't think it's going to happen. but then again, i think if you had said in the middle of january 1968, woodland and baines johnson not be a candidate for renomination, that woud be considered --

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