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three months out. if you had to pick a hand to play right now, would you rather be in the position of democrats or republicans? >> i think i would rather be in the position of democrats. at the moment, i think joe biden is in a better position in the presidential race. results are not perfectly correlated but they don't have the same bearing on each other that they did a couple generations oago. every state that had a senate race also voted for the same party for president. that is not carried -- guaranteed to happen this time but the democrats are probably .oing to lose alabama they need to win currently republican -- current republican held seats. the good thing for democrats is

in athink they look good least four senate races. arizona and colorado. and i think they are probably better than 50-50 in north carolina and maine. the tricky thing for democrats is that once you get beyond those states, there are several other targets but none of them are as good as those first four. thosenate playing field, core targets look pretty good for democrats. if you are winning a senate majority, you want to have 52, 53 so you have a governing majority. >> in terms of a potentially expanded senate map, can you explain what a wave election is? if there is aw

precise definition of wave elections. it is one of those things where you know what when you see it. 2008 was a wave election. 2018, maybe not because in a so-called wave election, a party is doing well at all levels that the race is being contested. they are losing seats in the senate. they netted a lot of state legislative seats but not as many as you might expect in a wave environment. democrats gained in the house and the presidency. and cut into some more republican turf. that is when you look at senate targets like iowa, montana, and

georgia. there are two races in georgia. one will be a runoff in january. and maybe states like south carolina and alaska. talk about the map expanding, i would argue that in some ways the map contracted in the last few weeks in that there is an open seat in kansas. democrats are hoping that kris , he lost the 2018 gubernatorial race, they really want him to get through those republican -- to get through that republican primary. kansas went from being a very attractive democratic target to moving to the fringe of the democratic senate target. to put kansas in perspective, there are positive trends in certain parts of the state for democrats but kansas has not elected a democrat since the fdr election.

the center for politics.org/crystal ball is o'sre you can go to see sabad crystal ball. that is where you can see this map. that is the united states senate there, eblue colors safe democratic states in the senate cycle. states in red means likely republican, and a yellow category that is probably where we will focus a lot about attention this morning. iowa, north carolina, and maine. if you want to call in this morning to talk about the states in races that you are interested in, you can do so. phone lines split up as usual by party.

democrats, (202) 748-8000. republicans, (202) 748-8001. independents, (202) 748-8002. you started off by saying the senate playing field is the link as it often is in the presidential year. ourpent the first hour of program talking about who joe biden should take as his vice presidential nominee. any thoughts on that pic and what it could mean down the ballot? will be interesting to see particularly if he selects a black woman as his running mate as has been rumored but some of the top contenders are black, ricea harris and susanne stand out. california.from there is some research that would suggest potentially that if he selected a black running , is actually never had a black running mate to know what

sort of electoral impact that might have. there are suggestions that if there was a black woman on the ticket, that person might actually help a little bit with black turnout and of course, in many of the most competitive states, if in fact that person could spur additional black turnout, that might be helpful for biden the presidential race. biden not only needs to pick someone who is helpful, or at least not hurtful to him, he also needs to pick someone who you can govern with a who really could end up being a front runner for the democratic presidential nomination as soon as four years from now, really whether biden wins were doesn't win, it seems possible that he may be will run again given his advanced age. as for the timing, some of these announcements have come on

fridays, which is kind of odd, because you don't think of friday as being a big news breaking day. it's not a convention like we're used to. i think the idea is you announce on a friday, generating all this talk over the weekend and that goes pretty naturally into the convention. we have seen some of these announcements come out late on a friday. joe biden's announcement itself, barack obama announced late on a friday. also the announcement that paul ryan was going to be mitt romney's running mate was on a friday as well. host: the democratic national convention begins next monday. next tuesday, the centennial of the ratification of the 19th amendment. perhaps we will see that as part of the rollout of former vice president joe biden has said a

woman will be his pic as vice president. michigan state with one of those potential contenders to be joe biden vice presidential nominee, gretchen witmer, the governor there. race, so let'ste start there on the phones. ralph is in michigan, democrat. ifler: yes, i was wondering this analyst has new swing states or different swing states for this presidential election. am seeing texas, nbc had an electoral college projection and they had texas and ohio and georgia, i think, as swing states or up for grabs states. is the map changing a lot? host: as you answer that question, this is the presidential electoral college rating from the screen right

now. if you need to talk through that map, >> it is there for you. >>that's a great question. i do think that the map of the united states is relatively large for president

-- republicans are so used to being able to count on texas. it's growing quickly, going to add another two or three ella travolta after the upcoming

census -- electoral votes after the upcoming census. it is a huge prize. the democrats have hammer locked some of the other big states like california and new york. you have to worry about the electoral college future if texas becomes a swing state. they can't win without texas. >> i want to focus on race ratings for a little bit. your map currently has joe biden winning 268 state electoral votes, the blue states on the map that viewers can see. donald trump winning 204 electoral votes and 66 electoral votes in the tossup category. you said you expected this race to tighten up a little bit. i want to compare your ratings to some of the other race rating groups out there. yours is perhaps more friendly to president trump than others.

97e npr map has biden with 2 electoral votes at the moment, donald trump with just 170. abc news' map that cannot, joe votes,ith 308 electoral inside elections, 319 electoral votes in the joe biden category, just 188 in president trump's column. can you talk about how you do this and why there is so much difference? >> sure. it, i think we probably are being a little more cautious than maybe some others. some of it has to do with polling. we are polling in the midst of summertime. i think labor day is typically a pretty good place to kind of take stock because we will have had the convention, the vice presidential selections will

have been made. not that i think donald trump is going to dump mike pence, but he does have a choice, even if that choice is just to keep him on the ticket. we are kind of looking at the current numbers and thinking even though states like ohio, texas, georgia are tied, we would still rather be trump in those states given the size of his victory in 2016. i don't think that they are safe any means.y n i think there is specifically some disagreement about florida, which is a state that seems to persistently be extremely close in presidential elections. there are polls showing biden up by 5-10 points in that state. my own experience tells me that that is probably not going to last. maybe this is a different kind of election. the president obviously has a lot of things going against him right now with coronavirus, the

economy, and the fact that his approval rating was never that great to begin with. it has been a little bit down lately. i think we continue to look at some of these states as being may be harder than the polls suggest. if we get to labor day and biden is still leading consistently in states like florida and wisconsin and arizona, then it might be time to move those into the democratic column. >> back to the phones. this is roxy in alabama. alabama, the state with the most vulnerable senators this cycle, according to your rankings, doug jones. ahead. i can't stand joe biden, he is an idiot. what i'm wondering is who in the world is going to run the country if he gets in there. i think the worst thing you could do is pick obama and women

ain't got no business and politics, god calls men to run the country and women to run the home. in life ande role that is why everything is so mixed up like it is. another thing, putting somebody black in there just because they are black, that is racism. if you are putting a person in there because of their politics, and the fact that they could run the country. host: have you ever -- caller: isn't she the one wanting to do away with cows and airplanes? i cannot stand her either. host: we got your point. that is roxy in alabama. your thoughts on that? comments toaller's remind me that there was a big story in the washington post yesterday about how the biden campaign is preparing to deal with sexist attacks on whoever they choose as a running mate.

there,ttitudes are out the caller basically showed. that is something that personally, the campaign unfortunately has to deal with. there are things that women candidates have to deal with that candidates were men don't have to deal with -- candidates who are men don't have to deal with and people of color have to deal with as well. that is something i think the biden campaign is preparing for. i think we have come a long way in terms of representation of people who are not white men in politics. years, isk 50, 60 hard to find people who are not white men who are seeking power. i think you are seeing more diversity in both parties, really, although the democrats, ofy have more the party diversity than the republican party is.

women are more democratic, men are more republican. -- the democrats have the bigger in terms of being more multiracial coalition. i think there are a lot of people in democratic party who think the democratic ticket should represent that diversity, but at the same time, if you are joe biden, you have to make sure that whatever the demographic characteristics are of the group you choose, that person is going to be helpful, that person is going to be a person that credibly can take over for the president if for some reason biden were elected and died in office, had to leave office, what have you. i think people are cognizant of that, given the former vice president's age. host: one of our viewers on twitter saying talk about susan collins in maine. guest: the parties have different views on her more

ability. a longtime political handicapper had a good column about this within the last week, just about how republicans have internal polls showing that they believe she has a small lead at this point. democrats believe that the state house speaker, the democratic challenger, that she has the lead at this point. there have been some public polling that shows the race close, that shows gideon leading. favoredlem is collins early numbers and approval ratings. she has always been this popular senator in maine and occupied this unique or increasingly unique ideological space in which she would serve as a republican, and now they are basically all gone or they have become democrats. but she has really become more

of a partisan eyes -- partisanized figure in that you can't count on certain crossover , donald trump i think is a partisanized figure in the south but he really divide people into two camps. trump does that maybe more so than other presidents, and aslins tries to dance around to whether she supports trump or not. finally, it seems like trump is probably going to do significantly worse in maine than last time. he came within three points of winning maine in 20 but poll suggested that maybe that is a

lot of crossover in the era where crossover voters are harder and harder to come by. race betweenne susan collins and sara gideon in the tossup category. before we leave maine, i want to show viewers two ads from that race, the first from the lincoln project, that anti-trump publican group against susan collins in her maine reelection run. >> great, independent leaders rise from maine's hard soil, always have and always will. take margaret chase smith. when the men were terrified of joseph mccarthy, she called the net. just like susan collins stands of the donald trump. wait. susan collins never stands at the donald trump. that's why made is done with her weakness and excuses. collins isn't an independent,

she is a fraud. mitch mcconnell and donald trump controller voice. she makes excuses for corruption, criminality, cruelty, all while pretending she is worried, concerned, hoping donald trump learns a lesson this time. he never does because she never speaks out, never does what i maine leader should do. susan collins doesn't work for maine, she works for them. and maine deserves a leader, not a trump stooge. that was an ad from the lincoln project in this ad from senator susan collins responding to recent attacks on her. >> my opponents say i've changed. i haven't, but politics sure has. false attacks against me began more than a year ago. especially offensive are the outrageous attacks on my

integrity, the suggestion that i traded my votes for campaign contributions is appalling. it never happened, not once, not ever. parents who by taught me to be honest and to work hard. have entrusted me with their vote in the senate, and i've cast it than 7000 times, never missing a single one. i will not back down from doing what i believe is right for maine. i'm susan collins and i approve this message. host: your thoughts on those back-to-back ads? guest: look, i think they sort of tell the story of the race in groups andatic effectively the lincoln project, there's a lot of former republicans working on it, the group works in service of

democratic candidates and against republicans essentially in that category, trying to nationalized susan collins and say that she is a tool of donald trump and therefore she should be thrown out. is trying to personalize race, localizer race, talk about how people have generally thought about her as being a voice, the fact that she is in a reliable vote in the senate. one thing in her ad that i typically, the political advertising rule of thumb is that if someone is making some sort of charge against you, you want to respond to it. you don't necessarily repeat the charge they are making, and i feel like she does that to some degree. i'm sure her campaign had good that, but whatng she is doing their is sometimes seen as something that candidates maybe should do in political ads, which is

interesting. the sort of reaction that might get. i think we are used to this when republicans are going after democratic senators and their vanilla democratic senators up for election in republican- leaning states for the past several cycles. several of them actually lost in 2018. those ads, the democrats would be the ones sounding like collins does, talking about themselves as independent voice, and republicans want to comparing themt, to when obama was president, tying them to national democratic leaders like nancy pelosi or the congresswoman from new york state, alexandra collier cortez -- alexandra

cozz cortez. when it comes to republican starting democrats, the shoe is on the other foot, you got a republican trying to localize in a state that is probably going to vote democrat for president and get democrats trying to nationalize that. >> this is john in memphis, tennessee. democrat, good morning. host: go ahead. man, we need to the our eyes on the prize, and the price is to get donald trump out of the presidency. women are capable of running this country, and they have proven that overtime. all the women that are republicans in office, where they apply that the democratic women, too? no, they don't. this,ust see trump doing line from the time he came down the escalator.

he has put this country in a bad shape. we need to get him out of office, thank you. kansasou mentioned the primary for the senate race last week. in kansas,ne republican, good morning. caller: good morning. i've got a two-part question. number one is i keep hearing that republicans have a much better ground game than democrats do in all the states, i would like to know if that is true. i think people might fail to underestimate the trump supporter once again. i think that this year, i'm not answering any survey questions. i would not put a sign in my yard, i would not wear a trump hat, i would not put a bumper sticker on because i would be iraid of being vandalized and think that is not just me thinking that way. i would like your comments on

that, please. kansas, people in kansas were very strategic about their vote. they voted for marshall because we thought he was the stronger candidate. and i think people are going to be much more strategic about their vote in other states as well. thank you. guest: i would agree that voting for marshall was the strategic choice, certainly i think republican leaders in washington certainly felt that way. democrats didn't want marshall to be nominated, republican primary voters probably made a wise choice from a purely political standpoint. we will how that race develops. about the map changing in terms of democratic talks, i think kandice probably fell off the top target list as a result of the primary last week. itterms of the ground game,

is simply about how the trunk campaign is doing significantly more canvassing than democrats are. almost exclusively because of coronavirus, and i think the campaign may feel differently about what is appropriate and what is not in the midst of coronavirus. it is possible that the campaign might get some sort of benefit on that. i don't necessarily know if it is 100% inclusive in terms of what campaign activities work best, but my own reading of things is that face-to-face contact is more effective than giving someone a phone call or something for something like that. that is something to watch. we are in this strange situation in that we've got coronavirus going on, a lot more people voting by mail. there has become a partisan conflict as to who votes by mail

and who doesn't vote by mail. the president has basically voting by mail and that has changed public opinion on voting by mail. democrats are more likely to want to vote by mail, republicans are less likely to want to vote by mail. thatast majority of votes get cast will be counted, but if you vote by mail, there might be a bit less likely that your vote gets spoiled because maybe you , if you'retime voting in the voting booth on election day, you could talk to someone and ask many questions. that has a significant variable. the final thing, the caller brought up the so-called shy trump effect, there is sometimes discussion of that, we see trump did better than the polls projected in 2016, the key states like

wisconsin, pennsylvania, and michigan, it doesn't seem like researchers found that there was a shy trump effect so much as pollsters didn't necessarily toe a great grasp on the way win the electorate in their polling. there has become this big divide based on education within the white electorate, basically white voters with a four-year college degree used to be very republican. ,ow more of a swing demographic maybe even trending democratic. and white voters who don't have a four-year college degree, a long, long time ago formed bedrock of the democratic party and now it has become a very heavily republican group. pollsters have take into account these democratic differences based on education among white voters, and so there is any electorate's that seem to be

more formally highly educated than what reality actually is. and that is something that the pollsters have to take into account. that may have been responsible for this shy trump effect that i do think gives >> "washington journal" every day, we are taking your calls live on the air on the news of the day and will discuss policy issues that impact you. coming up tuesday morning, a discussion on state and federal unemployment insurance with christopher o'leary, senior economist at the institute for employment research. we will preview the review hearing of the michael flynn case with washington times justice department reporter jeff morlock. live "washington journal" at 7:00 eastern tuesday morning and be sure to join the conversation with your phone calls, facebook comments, text messages, and tweets.

♪ ♪ >> the contenders, about the men who ran for the presidency and lost. a change political history all week on c-span. on tuesday, the 1884 presidential candidate james lane. >> now, the political action group emily's list holds a women in politics conference with the joe biden and new mexico governor michelle lujan grisham among the speakers. this is 3.5 hours. 35th anniversary! >> happy 35th anniversary! >> happy 35th anniversary, emily's list. >>