your unfiltered view of politics. the contenders, about the men who ran for the presidency and lost but changed political history. three-time governor of new york, thomas dewey. the contenders. from columbus ohio is sean trende. that's began with the presidential race. we are 65 days before election day. early voting will begin. where does the race stand right now? we haven't have a lot of polling because of the conventions. the posters take a little bit of a break during the conventions and then try to measure afterwards. right now, it does look like joe biden is in the lead with a very

healthy lead both of the popular vote and the electoral college. it's not such a huge lead that it's impossible for donald trump to close the gap. what happens in the battleground states, with joe inen campaigning pennsylvania, wisconsin, arizona. those of the key states for him. the president was in new hampshire friday. florida it a must when state for the republicans. walk us through those key battleground states. now, we have joe biden winning all of those states. off the top of my head it, i'm not sure about arizona, but i'm pretty sure. florida is a must win state. it's difficult to see a path through the presidency where donald trump doesn't carry florida.

at the same time, joe biden probably needs to win wisconsin in pennsylvania. arizona is a new battleground state. from 2000competitive until 2012. in 2016, hillary can claim close to winning it. we see a situation now where democrats are competing for. that may be a way for them to offset a loss in wisconsin. host: the biden harris ticket did not see a bounce after the democratic convention. is that unusual? guest: it is. biden went into the campaign -- into the convention with a sizable lead over an incumbent present. that's not something we see very often. it could be that people who are going to vote for biden have already decided and there wasn't a lot of low hanging fruit for them to scoop up. the president?t

he is hovering around 40% in the national polls. where does he have to pickup ground? guest: the president possible strategy is what it was in strategy -- 2016. in 2016 was appealed to lou caller voters, one of the reasons why you see this huge push on civil unrest in the cities, to get socially conservative blue-collar voters back on his side. the other thing i think he has with rural and small-town voters is to convince enough therbanites that he is not most dangerous option in 2020. that's what he did in 2016. it's why his victory cost so

many people off guard. he is a known quantity. on some of the ads by the president, social critic, medicare, medicaid issues are on the ballot. this is one of the ads. cutoe biden tried to medicare for decades. >> we should freeze federal spending. i meant medicare and medicaid. >> i tried a third time. >> now, joe biden is promising costsesident trump's lowering and expanding access. so security is often an issue in every election. it is this one any different? bitt: it's a little different than past campaigns thethat it's harder to hang

albatross of wanted to cut social security or medicaid around donald trump. he has come out forcefully against it. i think what's going on in that ad, people are predisposed to think democrats don't want to cut social security. what's probably going on is convincing people on the left who don't like joe biden because they think he's too conservative that it's worth it to stay home. that is probably the target for that ad. host: will it work? guest: i don't think so. this is a 2016 where donald trump is the outsider with no track record. he's been president for four years. the far-left despises him. i think it's going to be hard to convince bernie sanders to vote for trump this time. host: the lincoln project group

led by republicans disgruntled with the president, spending millions of dollars on advertising. don't let it define you. you can do this. i can tell you what i used to do. you, you can do it. oli's, kids that make fun. i don't know what i said. i don't remember. >> not the crappy out of them. you, i will pay for the legal fees. >> it's time for decency. it's time for joe biden. >> it's going to change.

i promise you. project isoln responsible for the content of this advertising. host: your thoughts about the lincoln process -- project? i think they do a good job of appealing to a certain type of republican, to the extent that they are wavering at all in the election. speaking, those ads reinforce attitudes about the president rather than be persuasive or change them in my view. that is one of their better ads. it gets at what is donald trump's weakness among a lot of republicans, which is some of the things he said.

things of that nature. i think that is one of their better ads. they sort of preach to the choir. host: this is a tweet from steven green. do the posters ever ask could you change your mind before the election? guest: they do. the problem with that question and this is a problem with all survey questions, people don't tell the truth. , it's notn by that even that people are necessarily line. it's that people want to think of themselves as open-minded. you don't want to tell people your mind is made up. we don't think of that as a virtue. the people who could actually change their mind is much smaller than the 30% who tell the pollster there voters up for grabs. your phone get to

calls. forer: i will be voting biden as soon as early voting begins. -- i don't follow donald trump much, the physically handicapped reporter that he mocked a few years ago. ago, a gopew years congressman went off the record and said it's an evil forest gump. that's donald trump. we don't fully understand the supporters that see this guy who advocates policies against their interest. they should go down to mar-a-lago and see how many look like them. the answer is none. host: thank you. guest: i think for people who make the character argument,

there's a reason mocking the disabled reporter was in that lincoln project added. for a lot of people, that was the low point for donald trump. that hit hard for our family. i think what people need to keep in mind is there are policy stakes in the election. conservatives, there wasn't much of a platform, people know what donald trump is about. for people who care about sports, i understand the reason for voting republicans. dale is next from cincinnati. he supports the president. caller: good morning. about biden,ing

trump is probably going to win. curious thei'm that thed the vitriol democrats have felt for the last four years, will it stop? that's my question. host: how do you answer that question? do you think the country will come together? caller: i do believe so. i'm kind of curious. americans are looking for checks. will leave it there. thank you for your question. we will go back to sean trende.

obama in 2012, barack made it, about republicans, that maybe if he got reelected, the fever would break. that's not how things went. presidents disliked obama. that didn't go down at all in the second term. it escalated. something similar probably happens with president trump. seemed spookytion to a lot of democrats, it was reinforced by a reelection effort. people would not be reassured or relieved or combed down by that. host: henry is joining us from michigan. good morning. caller: good morning. it, of mistake about vote for donald trump and a vote

for any republican on november 3 is a vote for death. the death of our democratic ofublic, the physical death hundreds of thousands of more americans because of this pandemic. i listen to c-span, trump collars say trump was sent to us by god. that, you have to believe that this pandemic, this plague was sent to us by god as well. that thisling you economic catastrophe, this death and destruction is going to continue. host: thanks from michigan. also, kimberly guilfoyle who is the girlfriend of donald trump, jr. addressed the convention.

here is a portion. is fearless, who believes in you and who loves this country and will fight for her. president trump is the leader who will rebuild the promise of america and ensure that every citizen can realize their american dream. ladies and gentlemen, fighters for freedom and liberty of the american dream, the best is yet to come! host: what did you think of the speech? to take mymost had earpiece out while that was going. she's been doing this for a very long time. she's been involved in politics for a long time. that's the speech you give at a rally in you're feeding off the energy of the crowd, the crowd is feeding off your energy.

if we had an in person convention, that would have brought down the house. we would view it very differently than we view this right now. it just seemed very off key. there was no response. why it that's probably didn't work and what made it jarring in the context of the convention. cnbc,the headline from the director of national intelligence will no longer give congress in person briefings on election interference, claiming the information is being leaked. rebuke froma strong joe biden and speaker pelosi. what's the significance of this? thingsyou hate to say that are important are inside baseball. i think it's important. the fact that congressional

staffers may be leaking these things, which i don't doubt they are. that's not an excuse not to comply with congressional oversight. congressional oversight is part of what makes our system function in normal times and in the middle of a pandemic. as far as electoral implications, most people don't have a firm understanding of separation of powers, don't care about things like that. they care about the economy and .he virus a lot more that's where we are. host: the president talked about this in louisiana. this statement from speaker pelosi.

yesterday in louisiana, this from the president. he brought information into the committee and the information leaked. they leaked the information. what's even worse, they leaked their own information. he got tired of it. he wants to do it in a different form. leakers are doing bad things, it's probably not even legal to leak. we will look into that separately. they were leaking the information. you wouldn't allow that in texas. he wanted to make sure that it doesn't leak. host: that was the president yesterday in louisiana.

written briefings are more precise and less to interpretation. hasill find who in congress an issue with reading comprehension. i come back to yes, leaking is a problem and it's been a problem for a very long time. fromdoesn't excuse you congressional oversight. it's a wildly disproportionate response to a legitimate problem. good morning, a supporter of the president in idaho. caller: good morning. how are you doing today? can you hear me? host: go ahead. bring: i would like to

two things to light. when you open that one page on your smartphone, you will see -- ifden and barack obama you look at the second reference aid, they of foreign doubled up on foreign aid. this is why they -- glutted president trump do? .e cut that foreign aid had a goal in

2019. they increased it from george bush and bill clinton. american taxpayer $2 billion a year. $250,000.t down to we've got to stop. president trump is putting money back into the hands of american taxpayers. host: a lot of numbers there. your response to foreign aid and how this president is dealing with our allies? guest: it's a little out of my wheelhouse. is therstanding cost-of-living adjustments are tied into the inflation rate. in the middle of the great recession, we didn't have a lot of inflation.

the economy was contracting and banks were trying to inflate. that might be part of what's going on. the foreign aid budget is not that much of the annual budget. there's not as much money there as you think. has cutdonald trump foreign aid. i don't think that money has been redirected to the cost-of-living adjustment. that is something that is built-in and keyed off various factors in the economy. host: let's turn our attention to the senate. republicans are dying a pickup in alabama. colorado is a swing state that could go either way in terms of control of the u.s. senate. cory gardner is running for reelection. he's been challenged by john hickenlooper. let's look at some of the ads in

colorado and get your assessment of that race. >> let's get down to some real differences. i just like beer. he admits he would not be an effective senator. >> it wouldn't bring me any kind of satisfaction. lines to getarty things done. count on me to get things done. i'm cory gardner and i approved this message. >> why is the trump administration in court to get rid of protections for pre-existing medical conditions? and i was governor, we get health coverage for 500,000 more coloradans. i want to lower the cost of prescription drugs and make sure you can't lose coverage if you get covid-19. i approve this message because we've got to stop fighting about

health care and get to work over the costs. race inat is one senate colorado. what to the polls tell you? guest: there is so much going on in those ads. it's not a well polled race. is thatdo know hickenlooper has been a popular governor in colorado. isknow that cory gardner widely acknowledged as an adept politician. at the end of the day, this is a state that leans blue. it's not a blue state. it's winnable in the right conditions. in 2014, gardner won by a couple of points. evenis an uphill battle, for a talented politician. host: john is joining us from washington. go ahead. caller: can you hear me?

my question is why are we so and concerned with what is going on in the streets when we have corruption and human people likeand epstein and maxwell that haven't and itvestigated pertains to some of the leaders of this country and other countries? why are those things not been investigated. host: thank you. guest: epstein was being prosecuted when he died. maxwell was only recently arrested. there will be a prosecution there, that will get a lot of attention. violence in the streets of american cities is a big story.

i hear my friends on the left say the violence is brought on proportion compared to the peaceful protests occurring. in columbus, things have been quiet since an initial outburst. an argument that the story is getting too much attention. a the same time, it's legitimate thing for news agencies to cover. host: susan collins is seeking another term. -- challengedrged by sarah gideon. when the coronavirus hit, i didn't think we were going to make it. the paycheck protection program was written by susan collins. it allowed us to pay our employees. i don't think we would be in business today.

i want to thank susan collins for the paycheck protection program. collins and i approve this message. >> sometimes you are made to feel small. >> there is no special interest looking out for us. wrote the law to help small business and support health care. >> she expanded job-training programs. she supported vocational education. >> no business in maine is too small for sarah. >> i'm sarah gideon and i approved this message. susan collins is wearing a mask, she is social distancing. the battle over who will do more for maine? what's at stake in this race? this is another race, in

2008, susan collins one by 20 point in the worst republican year since the 1970's. barack obama won the state handily. it says something about how the country has changed. she is in a lot of ways tied to the president. she came out of the old republican coalition, which was moderate. the republican coalition has ierump more toward a side. she is down the polesr by a few points. i think you see that in the ads she's running. she is trying to bolster her record of independence. that is what her brand has been until the trump years. she has a tough reelection

campaign. you were talking about someone who has one multiple elections in a blue state. i think you'd be foolish to counteract. host: victoria is in wisconsin. good morning to you. caller: good morning. the obama biden administration, president obama was the first black president. him, the man who is wanting to be the next president of the united states. they had eight years to address divide, theracial racial situations. why didn't they do it? now, it is president trump's fault? it's his problem. i am a senior citizen. i'm not worried about social security. i'm concerned about the coronavirus.

like most people, everybody in my community is practicing the guidelines as they change. terrified of the racial burning, that i can't wear might trump pat or trump t-shirt without fear of being attacked in my community because somebody doesn't like that i am for president. host: thanks from wisconsin. reelection campaigns are always about the incumbent, whether you say that's fair or unfair. the race issue in america is something that goes back into the 1600s. it's not something that a president is going to fix in eight year term.

it's not something a president can fix in a four-year term. it's a deep societal problem. reelection campaigns are referenda on the party in power. it's difficult for a president running for reelection to say what about the people who were there before me. americans based their vote on what's happened in the last four years. what's the record of the incumbent? do i one another four years of it? host: senator doug jones is facing tommy tuberville, the republican has the edge in this race. this is just a very difficult race for jones. against a2017 accusedan who had been of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl. that's a very different race than the race he currently has,

donald trump is going to be at the top of the ticket. people would be very shocked if jones won reelection. host: john from staten island new york. go ahead. i'm not so much a biden slogan is he's trying to lose. becauseo vote for him trump is attacking the constitution constantly on tv. executeis to faithfully the law and to protect our nation from attack, even when russians are attacking our elections. has: the trump campaign this new attic, taking aim at the radical left. more andats are going

more left. >> many of the ideas we fought for their were considered radical are now mainstream. implemented, it will make him the most aggressive president. >> the radical left has taken over the democratic party. joe biden is marching in lockstep with them. they are promising to crush middle-class families with children's and new taxes. promising amnesty and health care for illegal immigrants. down energy shut exploration, killing jobs and hurting the economy. in joe biden's america, the radical left get whatever they want and you get to pay for. they've already taken over the

democratic party. don't let them take over america. what is your overall reaction? as an incumbent without a hist job approval rating, path to victory comes from bringing joe biden down to his level, convincing people that i might not be the greatest thing ever, but you're really not going to like joe biden. coined thecientists term negative partisanship. it's a theory that people don't side,h like their own they really dislike the other side. caller'see that in the comment. that's what trump is playing on. you may not like me that much, you are really going to dislike

this joe biden guy. this is from greg in lexington. how do you rate the truthfulness of this administration based on your fact checking? weightto my knowledge, we don't do fact checking of administrations. we do fact checks on the fact checkers, sometimes they get out of line. trump, one ofd the problems he has is he will have a good argument and then he will put the sales pitch on it and puff it up 20%. even when he has good arguments, he gets caught in these accusations of what came out of his mouth. that it'sxaggerated unrecognizable.

it's an exhausting term to cover in a lot of ways. host: here we go again, it's all obama's fault. republicans pretend that the george w. bush wall street housing jobs crisis never happened. back to your phone calls. brian is in washington state. caller: can you hear me ok? host: go ahead. caller: you are spot on earlier when you were talking about honesty when they are questioned about their intention when they go to the polls. i wanted to call in on the undecided line. kudos to you. i have a question in regards to the election. in the most current news coverage, we've got trump's sister and the perversions of michael: beingnd

the lawyer for falwell and trump , his name would come up afterwards. my question is, has this recent dilemma of negative stories about trump affected the republicans? has it caught the ear enough to deter some of his supporters you some sign they are doing it? as an exampledaho we had a lotting, of mail-in voting going on, did the mail-in voting in conservative states have any issues with fraud? i will ask the state of idaho to be used. inre primary was male

balloting and there was zero fraud. host: sean trende? tweet, you see the issue with saying trump had these problems, what about obama? the democrats say he inherited his problems. that'sat endless cycle, part of why most people are more interested in the incumbent doing lately. thehe question of whether bad news is affecting trump, the people who follow elections closely, it's easy to get in the weeds, the back-and-forth of different stories. we consume a lot of news. the average american voter is going to vote their political preference. for the actual swing voters, most of them are looking at big picture issues.

how is the coronavirus doing it? going to have a lot more of an impact on the president's campaign then questions about the jerry falwell, jr. scandal. about last question fraud, that is such a dicey issue. i almost hesitate to answer it. i shouldn't talk more than a minute. fraudnd short of it is if occurs, it does tend to be done during absentee ballot. we don't have a lot of evidence that occurs on a massive scale.

it's not something i can stand here. the types of concerns we've heard about it are overstated. host: jamie harrison is trying graham.lindsey is this race and play? guest: i don't think so. i think there was a story to be told back in late june when president trump was down 10 points. it looked like things might be getting out of hand. you might've seen a state like be incarolina that might play for democrats. since then, we've seen the polls shift toward donald trump. there is a momentum that biden and harris had in june.

they still have a healthy leader. it is something akin to what barack obama had in 2008. it doesn't look like donald is going to lose in a jimmy carter fashion, or the floor completely falls out. websiteu can go to the where they trend all of the .olling, not only nationally the president has gained ground, especially after the republican convention. back to your phone calls. good morning. caller: good morning. another caller stole my thunder theturning -- concerning one about this? number one, people have -- we

will see about it. we will see what happens. that is a tell that he doesn't know what he's doing. the massive amount people who were not supporting trump? boehner's, the paul projectthe lincoln people, mitt romney, they are not showing up for the republican party. i know this may be personal to you, how do you feel in your heart? you said you had a child who had autism or special needs. how did you feel when you see a guy like this he was supposed to

represent all of us mocking people like children who have special needs? thanks. i will listen. guest: on that final point, there have been a lot of things from donald trump that i didn't like in 2016. the comment about illegal immigrants being murderers, the famous call where someone asked him to condemn david duke and he wouldn't do it. he said his mirror -- earpiece was malfunctioning. impact,s got wrenching making fun of that disabled reporter was really horrifying for me. it had an impact on my folk choices in 2016. -- vote choices in 2016. it's easy to get bogged down in polls that show this or that. certain point, you learn to

look more at what the parties are doing than what they are saying. started to see increasing pressure, you've seen numbers of democratic politicians condemning looting unequivocally. legs to thee argument that donald trump is , at the same time, the fact that you've gotten silence from people like john boehner, the lincoln project people are not so silent. this tells you something about the state of the republican party. a lot of people in the establishment don't like donald trump. is a symptom of a larger problem that donald trump has an upper middle class suburbs that

were once the backbone of the republican party. why he'sess there is trailing in the polls right now. host: let's go to clay joining us from north carolina. good morning. question, i have seven brothers and sisters. they have left the democrat party to join the republican party. obama -- donald trump davis opportunity. my question is do you do polling andndependents african-americans that have switched over parties? to clarify, we are not a pollster. we aggregate and interpret polls.

sponsoring aout polls, it's outside what we see as our mission. valid point.aise a there is a broader point. donald trump claims they are going to do better among african-american voters than any republican since george w. bush. there is something to be said fort. we have seen some evidence among young male african-americans that he has done better. whether that survives the --ryline of the last month witr host: we lost the signal. we will try to get him back. let's hear from some of you. jeremy is in eau claire, wisconsin. milwaukee, i'm right off line. i am close to the inner city of

milwaukee. i heard the individual who is upset. which cap toe out put on my head when i exit my door. if the individual you are interviewing could express to us how this administration is so out of the loop as to oppose to other administration. nprst heard a comment on about how they've never been able to manage the situation from the executive branch. point, this is been bothering me for months. i take it personally when that is said. i hope he can address my initial comment.

signal witht the our guest. sometimes this happens. ann.is a tweet from promoted vigilante justice. a christian fundraising site has raised 200,000 dollars for the kenosha shooter. mark is joining us from omaha nebraska. himer: i want to have address, i think the polls are off. i think the silent majority is really silent on trump when they ask questions. i think the polls are going to be off 10%. recently, i was hanging out with

friends. i'm an older person. seenof us -- we haven't each other since high school. out when something came up, nine out of the 10 were trump supporters, which surprised us all. think trumping, i is going to blow him out. i think biden picked the wrong vice presidential candidate. biden is a likable person. he chose a very unlikable vice just with not republicans, even when she was running for president. she came in eighth or ninth place. very unlikable to democrat constituents. thanks for making that.

ust: sean trende is joining from columbus. there could be an undercount of trump supporters? guest: that's a common argument out there. in light of what happened in 2016, it's an understandable one. i don't know that it's right. the polls can be off by random chance 1% or 2%. when you get to a point where the swing states are within one or two points, donald trump can definitely win. error, 10a systemic points would be huge. it would be unprecedented. i don't think i would count it. host: we've got this message from florida. what did you think of nancy pelosi urging joe biden not to debate? know exactly what

the strategy is with what she's been doing lately. if she' just had it with this president. host: we apologize. we are having some technical issues with our guest in columbus. this is another tweet from anthony. lincoln gas think the project could become the lincoln the lincolnst think project could become the lincoln party? caller: i just want to make some comments. there are three things people are not talking about. time,is no wikileaks this there is no hillary clinton. hillary.dn't like

i just think it was locked. he didn't know he was going to win. they say he was shocked that he one. i think he got a lot of help and 16. the media is giving him a lifeline with these protests going on. they keep bringing it up. it's peaceful protest going on. i understand to get some violence here and there. the media are trying to throw him a lifeline. host: ingrid is here in washington dc. good morning. caller: is that me? great. forally have a question your fact checkers or your gas. people are talking about lies the president makes. it his speech the other night, he talked about covid and how our country is doing better than

all of the developed countries. yesterday, i had not understood that. i've been looking at the rate of death per capita. that's not the number he's talking about. he's talking about the percentage of cases, people who are diagnosed and then recover. i haven't done the math. you have to get a different set of numbers then water on the charts. the possibility exists that he might be right. host: thank you for the call. speaking of numbers, another covidilestone, 25 million cases worldwide. johns hopkins has been keeping track of coronavirus. exceeded toll has 840,000 locally in 188

countries. mary is joining us from washington. go ahead. caller: good morning. i watch you guys all the time. crazy, time for biden, definitely not for the president. the thing was, i didn't really watch the show or whatever they want to call it. biden wasn't there, that's our house. that's not the trump white house. that is the american people's house. the other thing i was going to can they fire the

postmaster general, the one that's causing all the trouble if they do have mail-in ballots? change ifould only there is another administration. joann is joining us from pennsylvania. good morning. --ler: host: we will go to regina in pennsylvania. caller: i took a little issue with the last guest that you lost. not ationed something is big deal, republicans and big -- trump are making a big deal. sometee voting it requires kind of application from you to be sent back in with personal information to get the application back. that's not they'll in -- mail-in voting.

she basically said when you have wholesale sending of ballots, you have no way of knowing if it was ever livered. public interest legal fund. she knew what she was talking about. i think this man should listen to her. balloting is more credible than mail-in voting, which is dangerous. we werean trende talking about you while we lost the signal. about malin versus absentee voting? in versus absentee voting? guest: we have some states that are 100% malin. colorado, oregon, washington,

especially colorado being a swing state. there is not a lot of evidence of massive voting fraud. say it never to happens or the concerns are completely unjustified. it expand suddenly nationwide, the people who are thinking this is going to flip millions of votes, there is not the evidence to support that belief. we do have states that have done widespread absentee voting and it's been scrutinized heavily. , we apologizende for some of the technical issues with our signal in c >> on monday, the national press club newsmakers held discussion on college voters. watch live monday afternoon at

1:00 eastern on c-span come online on c-span.org or listen live on the c-span free radio app. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2020] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] onthe sunday news focused protests and violence in american cities and the president plans trip tuesday to kenosha. we begin with comments from mark meadows, white house chief of staff. >> we always must make sure that the rule of law is there, not just because it is the rule of law bit because it creates a safer community, whether it is in kenosha, wisconsin, or anywhere else. the'm trying to understand, president denounced the violence on one side of protesters he didn't like but why not denounced what this young man did? why not say please, don't take matters into your own hands? the president hasn't said that. one of his chief supporters in thme