>> our current president has failed to protect us. he has failed to protect america. and my fellow americans, that is unforgivable. >> the first presidential bate is tuesday, september 9 -- september 29, and you can listen free on the c-span radio app. >> charlie cook is editor and -- thanks. welcome back to the program, r. cook.

which was the lowest of any elected president in their first year. in the second year he was at 40%, the lowest of any president in the elected president in his second year in office, in the third year he was at 42% which was the lowest except for jimmy carter. we know what happened to him. so you've got a president who has never seen a majority approval rating, and that's important, because approval ratings are are the best way to determine whether a president is likely to get re-elected or not. it's not like a choice election ike you had in 2016 or even in

2008. but he was only four or five, six points ahead in most polling. joe biden had a lead in every one of the 20 states hillary clinton carried plus d.c. with more than the margin of area everywhere except possibly minnesota. you had michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania that effectively settled the last presidential election, all three were in the margin of error. and florida, south carolina he was running to even, the president slightly ahead. then the coronavirus hits. everything changes, and now we are looking in the average of all the pollsed about 7 and in the live interview polls that i think are method logically

soundest, eight, nine, 0 points behind and in the swing states, he is behind in all six of those and then he's got his leads in places like georgia, iowa, texas, ohio. his leads are very, very small, if at all. so he is in the hole here. he was within striking distance before the coronavirus, and now it's not a competitive race today. it's -- he's not within striking distance today. something would have to change for him to get into more of a competitive situation. which is four to five points. we will separate the lines for ose supporting the biden-harris ticket and those who support the trump-pence ticket.

charlie can has been a guest on our show many times. before we go, what do you think is the bit of good and bad news each of these candidates have gotten in the last several days? >> i'm trying to think what's happened. for president trump. biden went into the two conventions with a lead of at that point high, single digits. 0 n you're 0 points -- 0 points in most of the polls i've seen. you can't get a bounce off that so basically all he could do is hold, and that's what he seems to have done. then for the president, i don't think he got much of a bounce. i think there's some signs his move in favoribility may have

gone up a little bit but he hasn't closed biden in the key states and if in a couple he has. right now i'm hard-pressed to say what's happened that makes the race more competitive right now for president donald trump? maybe a little bit better in minnesota, but he is still behind there. >> how about the atlantaic story on the war dead, the disparaging remarks the president has pushed back on. how big of an issue moving forward will that story be? >> we have had dozens, and dozens of stories like this and i don't think they move many voters to be honest. voters, you know, anybody that was likely to get outraged by anything president donald trump said, had done, allegedly said,

allegedly did, i think they were outraged long ago. nd i think the 40-42% that are -- i think that's a rock-solid hard base, and they are just not going to drop. so anybody expecting trump to drop, it's like -- because he never rose, he can't drop. so he is basically holding with his base. win over the y to mid field voters, that has been severely compromised by i think the loss of a tailwind in terms of the economy. that was his strongest argument and best issue. losing that tailwind i think hurt him.

second, he was slow to recognize the severity of the coronavirus. that hurt. that's clearly hurt him with hese voters in the middle. you know you could line up with trump loathers or trump lovers and he has never gone after those people in between and in the last months his ability to win them over has been severely compromised. and that's why i think he has such a difficult time getting re-elected. >> robert? >> can you hear me? >> good morning, sir. yes. >> he told my thunder. basically had the question i was going to ask him what the impact of this atlantaic story s going to have on trump's election? but i'd like to say -- and this is my opinion that donald trump

has his own idea about the -- and what they look for when you are president. there's a portion of the population that are racist. if he died tomorrow, he would -- they would find somebody to take his place. he has a message for those people, and no matter what he ays, donald trump continues to ezzpows those beliefs. >> mr. cook? >> me, i tend to focus -- 0% of those who call themselves republicans will vote republican down the line and the same with the democrats. the vast majority of the independents lane republican or

democrat and 80% of them vote that way. so you're only talking about somewhere between 5% and 30% are swing voters. these are the people that are malleable and could move around. and i think the die no, ma'amic that could change -- i love the atlantaic, but the thing is we have had so many of these before. but the president with this group in the middle, the strong -- they thought that the economy was in really strong shape. they gave him complete credit for the economy, but a lot of these people had real questions about his character, his person, his morality, his truthfullyness, his judgment, his knowledge of issues and finally wouldn't listen to experts or unwillingness to listen to experts. but the strong economy was keeping those problems in check ming but you take away that

strong economy, and i think the concern about his -- him as a person, those concerns start going up, and i think that's what's changed the most. but these kinds of articles that -- i don't think these are the things that are going to move him. i think it's more of a matter of do i want to renew his contract for another four years? yes, or no? and with incumbent races, that's what's important. biden is almost besides the point. it's about the incumbent. a referendum. >> and daniel from franklin, new york, good morning. >> good morning. i'd like to make three points. first point was on inauguration date, january 21st, in 2017. unemployment rate did drop under trump to 3.9%.

so it did drop 1%, but the heavy lifting was done under president obama and vice 4- ident biden from 10-6 to 2009. he has now had 25 weeks since march 16. that's when many americans filed for unemployment and two of those weeks over 6 million people filed for unemployment. that's 56 million americans have filed for unemployment insurance since march 5th. that's not a good economy. that's not a great economy. it's my neighborses children to the east and west of me. three in the within family, three in the other and one in the other. this has not been a great economy for those young adults. the third point i would like to

make, if you don't mind, the stock market, i think a lot of us are addicted to judging the economy by the stock market. the stock market is the top part of the k. 20% of us own shares in the stock market. that surge was never discussed the september of 2019 as federal reserve began to buy up cooperate debt. since september of 2019 the federal reserve has bought up 7 trillion dollars in corporate debt. this is quabt tative easing on steroids. >> we leave this program now to take you live to winston salem, north carolina where president donald trump is holding a campaign event. this is live coverage