nine :00 a.m., the brookings institution looks at social and environmental issues. witnesses include deputy u.n. and at 11:30eral a.m., senator bob menendez, ranking member of the senate foreign relations committee, talks about president trump's foreign-policy. >> joining us to discuss these last couple of weeks before election day and what could happen. the national journal hotline editor. thank you for joining us. you for having me. host: rem remind people what you follow .> >> we cover federal races and have expanded to state legislature races. there are a few newsletters you can sign up for in addition to our subscriber letter. we also have one for nonsubscribers on new -- at noon. host: let's start with the top

of the list. the presidential race. what's the best way to look at who has the lead and the things to watch out for, especially as we go towards election day? guest: the best way to orient yourself around the current trends in the presidential race is using the first presidential debate as a mark in time. probably the lowest points for republican through the cycle. in presidential polls and also down ballot. who were at all tied to trump, which is every , tendedan in the party to see a downturn in their numbers. so now we are seeing whether or not trump is going to be able to recover, and whether republicans can recover. --t that will look like there's a spectrum. on one end, trump has completely turned things around and could

win the electoral college. i think it's difficult to imagine how he could win the popular vote. in the other, he loses the presidency but maybe saves some republicans in the house and senate who would be dragged down if his numbers continue to crater. host: a lot people talk about path to getting the electoral college. talk about that for not only the president but joe biden. guest: for joe biden, the big state is pennsylvania. .hat's the must win and the averages at this point, he is favored to win pennsylvania. for trump, there's a few different ways he's trying to go. if you states to watch out for, especially on election night start with north carolina. that's one that trump needs to win, along with ohio.

that blue wall we saw tumbling down in 2016, michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, biden seems to be in good shape in all of those states, which means he could take the traditional democratic attack to the presidency through the blue wall and potentially expand that replaces like north airliner, there is a -- north where republicans areates frankly struggling. aggressive campaign schedule by the president. joe biden stopping the campaign at least until thursday. how much sway is in those decisions, would not only the president stepping up since getting over the coronavirus but joe biden coming off a week from the trail. tost: it's important separate the personal from the political. president trump enjoys being out on the trail.

he enjoys having big rallies and talking about the numbers at those rallies. those are all things important to his base and to him personally. so when we see him on the trail, often flouting social distancing seeing how i'm not he expands his base by doing that. meanwhile, joe biden is able to stay out of the limelight and let trump take center stage. right now, the election is taking shape as a referendum on the president, which frankly makes sense with the first election after your first term in office. that's how you expect it to go. if it is a referendum, that works out better for biden at this point. trump is taking the limelight and wanting to be the center of attention is probably not a problem for biden. host: our guest will be joining us to talk about the issues of

campaign 2020 but also other factors. you can call and ask her youtions, (202) 748-8001 if support president trump and mike pence. (202) 748-8000 if you support joe biden and kamala harris. (202) 748-8002if you are ifecided --(202) 748-8002 you are undecided. in 26 teen we saw paul telling us one thing in a different result happened. where are we as far as the polls people should be -- the trust in polls? guest: i try to get people to focus on state-level polls rather than national. that's one of my causes. the national popular vote is obviously not actually what decides the presidential election. at this point, joe biden is doing pretty well in the national polling, getting to those low double digits.

but more important is where he stands in places like pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin. one of the key differences between 20 and 2020 is that there is stash between 2016 and 2020, there's not a major tendency or enthusiasm for a third-party candidate this year. in 2016, gary johnson and jill stein did siphon off enough of the vote to lower the threshold that trump or hillary would need to hit. they did not have to get 50% because third-party candidates would take 1% or 2%. this time the threshold is ,igher because jo jordgensen especially on the libertarian side, is not gaining as much traction. we are seeing in key battleground states, particularly promising for democrats, joe biden's polling

over that 50% mark. keeping in mind that there is a margin of error, this is taking down to 49 or 48. i did look up some of the polling averages last night. in pennsylvania, wisconsin, and michigan, joe biden is polling over 50%. that means he's less susceptible to the lens of undecided voters. in 2016 what we saw was hillary clinton polling closer to 47% in those states, and trump polling between 40 and 45%. in the end, bunch of undecided voters went to trump. this time there are fewer undecided voters and even if they do change to support trump, biden is already over the 50% mark. what trump would need to do is convince people who already say they are supporting biden to switch parties. which is an incredibly tough task, especially this late in the game.

and let's factor one thing that might be different than the last cycle, early voting. what is it telling us? guest: in every state the rules are different, which is important to keep in mind. there's not one hard and fast rule. but what we do see consistently is that democrats in polling and where they are already processing ballots, democrats are more likely to be voting by mail and earlier. that is not necessarily mean there's a major advantage, but it does mean that republicans have more pressure to turn out there voters on election day. republicans need voters to turn out on the same day in the middle of a pandemic, which could resent a challenge. but assuming that things go relatively smoothly, then

republicans should be able to get to the polls and vote. i think in general at this point we are seeing an increase in turnouts. our guest joining us for this conversation, our first call comes from north carolina, supporterom billy, a of president trump. go ahead. caller: good morning everyone. i would like to say c-span, you've done it again. i don't know where you come up with these folks that have all these opinions. i would like to say that one, as far as what she's talking about, trump might as well throw in the towel now, but i will tell you , enthusiasm isve so great for trump and the people around, and we have all ,eard that most of his rallies

they're not pulling any biden supporters are democrats. a lot of the rallies going on now, there's at least 10% democrats that are coming in that have an open mind, instead of one track. biden did have that right and a lot of folks could follow him off the cliffs and the country can go down in flames like losey. i think trump has a good chance that to take this and everyone like yourself will sit back and go over what exactly happened. good day c-span. host: thank you for the call. guest: let me pick up on your point about enthusiasm. you are right, donald trump in terms of polling and what i am looking out for the most part is numbers and people who see more numbers than i see.

keep in mind that there's a lot of private data. in public polling you are seeing that republicans are more enthusiastic about support -- supporting donald trump and democrats supporting joe biden. democrats are motivated to president trump and republicans are supporting president trump. you are right. donald trump can win. that's not a question for me. the question is, looking at all the past two the 270 electoral college votes, who has more paths? at this point it's joe biden. that's just following polling and numbers. the argument might be well the polling was wrong in 2016. but when you look at most of the polling in 2016, it was accurate. if you look at the national

polling averages from 20, where there were polls, for the most part, they were accurate. and in the midwestern states, where support was underestimated, pollsters have for the most part been trying to go in and adjust their mistake. keep in mind that they get paid when they do their job correctly. they are going back and making sure that they get hired again in order to make sure that they actually have these numbers right. you said, i'm think of when play monopoly and all you need is to not get two sixes are all you want is two sixes, that's absolutely possible. and it's a possibility for trump to end up winning reelection. looking at the numbers on the polling as somebody who looks at this not through the lens of who i want to win but in terms of just following the numbers, joe biden has a better chance today than donald trump does. oliver, in falls church,

virginia, supporting joe biden. caller: i live in northern areania, in the metro d.c. , i lived here all my life. i have never in my life saw president who is as dangerous as donald trump is. the gentleman that called in a minute ago, i know he was from north carolina and talking about the support that president trump has in north carolina. i want to let him know that the support for joe biden up in the northern part of this country, northern virginia and up the east coast, i've got family in new york and massachusetts and unitedicut, we are all and pray that we can get donald trump out of the white house

because we are worried about our country. i wish people would read the mueller report. it said the donald trump was colluding with a foreign government. he already said he would do it. he was colluding with a foreign government to be hillary clinton. i don't know how people can support that. host: thank you. guest: your comment in the previous caller kind of prove that it is hard to change voters minds at this point. people feel incredibly strongly about their particular positions for the most part in the selection, which means -- which makes persuasion really tough. i don't think either of those collars could be persuaded to vote for the other candidate. really what it comes down to is a small segment of the population still trying to decide which way to go.

what we are looking at are probably former republicans living in the suburbs, that college-educated demographic that we talk about a lot, but also those obama trump voters who did not like hillary clinton, or just want to change and now want a little less change and want things to be steadier. it really does come down to a small segment. that's part of what makes trying to guess what will happen so difficult and makes it much easier to look at with happening now and try to take a snapshot in time. host: from a supporter of joe biden in florida, this is wayne. --ler: good morning sees c-span, how are you? guest: good morning. caller: the republicans continue to talk about packing the court,

has joe biden never reported that he was going to pack the court? or anyone that you know that said he was going to pack the court? the only people i keep hearing say that is the republican party . and false news, msnbc has not set it, i follow all three news broadcasters and i have never heard any democrat say that he will pack the courts. it was started by the republican party and the people are eating this up like joe biden has said it. until't make the decision he gets into the presidency. i don't know why they keep asking him about it. virus, i remember back when they were impeaching the president, a report came through the news about the virus and he was so busy arguing about the impeachment, then nobody

really jumped on the report about the virus. host: we will let our guest respond. previouslybiden has said he does not support packing the court or adding more justices. he he has since then said would offer a clear answer before the election, depending upon how the confirmation hearings go. the reason why i think it's been hard to pin down and dancer is fourth --e biden is is forthright and he does not want that conversation. he wanted to be squarely on the fact that republicans are confirming injustice now, when they would not do the same thing in 2016. that's not my personal reporting, he has said that multiple times on the record.

i think it's part of the republican overall method -- message that joe biden might seem moderate or like he's not part of this, but he will be supported and pressured by people who are self-described progressives and democratic-socialist. that's been the republican message for three years now. as well as during the midterms. they mostly use that message in terms of health care, at least until the pandemic. most of what they were talking was the so-called radical democrats with socialized health care. but now with the supreme court opening there is a new opportunity for republicans to take that same message and formulate it in a different way.

which is honestly not different from what we have seen democrats do, trying to take their health care message which they have been running on since before the midterms and readjusting that message to fit the supreme court hearings, consistently bring up that the affordable care act could be on the line the week after the election. asked thisu are has question, can uss the top battleground senate races? specifically mentioning south georgia, arizona, texas, north carolina, and could senator lindsey graham lose? guest: the senate map, the reason i just laughed is because it specifically mentions six races. at the beginning of the cycle this was not supposed to be an incredibly chaotic senate map, maybe five or six races two years ago, now more than a dozen. at, the top to look

races to look at on election might are going to be alabama, that determines how many other seats democrats need to flip, need to pick up in order to get the majority. doug jones, republican, is running for reelection and that will be a tough race for him. if he loses, the number street -- the seats democrats have to pick up where -- pick up increases to 45, depending on if joe biden is president and therefore vice president kamala harris would be the tiebreaker. he wants to look at colorado and arizona. seats that have slipped but that does not mean the democrats have the majority, flipnk they are likely to but those are not bellwethers. going further we are looking at maine, north carolina and iowa. if those three -- if republicans

lose those three states, it's bad news for the senate majority . even losing two of the seats, looking at the rest of the map, democrats have expanded the map to include kansas, south carolina, alaska, and while i don't think all of the states are going to flip, they are forcing republicans to play. and if they are playing in six of them, its general probability that they will probably win at least one. that's why democrats are better positioned to recapture the majority today than they were a couple of years ago. in terms of south carolina specifically, that came on the map pretty late, jamie harrison, the democratic nominee, has been a star candidate throughout the entire cycle. but what we have seen is that are candidates sometimes

good at generating fundraising and enthusiasm and even building party infrastructure, but frequently have trouble getting over the finish line, like beto texas senatehe race. but now looking at the way the national environment has shifted , south carolina has become more attainable for democrats. right now lindsey graham is going to struggle with the same thing that other republicans are struggling with in terms of trying to make sure to consolidate the base, trump supporters, while getting suburban republicans who have not been supportive of trump's style but maybe his policies. lindsey graham has his own unique position. as he has mentioned on the record multiple times, he has a lot of political enemies who are happy to fund raise to help oust

him. he has a real race ahead, jamie harrison good when. that does not necessarily mean that he could -- that he is favored to but it's worth watching. host: we want to show you some of the ads taking place looking at the senate race. the first is from the national republican senatorial committee which is against theresa greenfield and iweb. the second -- in iowa, and the second is jj hager. [video clip] out-of-state liberals are flooding iowa with money, over $70 million to elect teresa greene yield because greenfield supports their extreme agenda. thatrefused to say crossing the border illegally is a crime. and she supports a government controlled health insurance which would force rogue route for all hospitals to close. theresa greenfield is too liberal for iowa. [video clip] >> six months since the senate has done anything.

texas out of work and getting sick. small business is shattering and john cornyn has no action or leadership. he when his party talks rushes through a supreme court nominee. i did three tours in afghanistan, earned a purple heart and i'm raising two kids in the middle of a pandemic and he thinks that i'm going get pushed around like he has? i approve this message because it's about time that texas had a senator as tough as we are. host: here's richard, from clarksville, tennessee. wondering, back in 1980's,'s through the the elected people running for senate or president, they did not use a lot of slander. i suggest that slanders against the law isn't it? guest: we are going into the intricacies of slander and libel

, which we mostly learned about in journalism school and we have to be careful of that. politicians don't have to be quite as careful. to be fair, there's a long history of politicians fudging the truth in order to get across a particular political message. that's not necessarily brand-new in 2020. of course, now there's multiple and new ways to get that information across, especially with social media, multiple tv, i to get news on the think it's the ability to fudge exacerbated byis the current environment and the different ways we are communicating. in general, there are major andtrations with washington the way that washington behaves.

the of that comes down to way they might take a position that goes along with their party lines. we are seeing that not only is the country more polarized than ever, but the senate and house are pretty polarized. that is something that donald trump was able to leverage, that frustration, to win in 2016. and then democrats took a bit of the page of that frustration in 2018, running a bunch of candidates for the house who did .ot have clinical backgrounds people who are hard to peg us democrats or republicans. we even see a handful of democratic nominees who are technically registered independent candidates like froma, trying to get away the narrative of the party and trying to show an individual separate from politics.

i guess slightly in the vein of trump, but with a pretty different style. especially these democratic senate candidates who, as you heard in texas just a minute ago , tend to be pretty safe. you don't hear them talk about political party a lot. you don't hear them talk about nancy pelosi or chuck schumer, even specific policies are absent. what you hear our general pledges to work across the island get things done and fight for their constituents. host: a supporter of president trump in grove city, ohio. hello. caller: god bless everybody in this great united states that we live in. i was watching the nixon-kennedy debate just before this first debate. they were so professional and so courteous with each other. i could not believe the

disrespect from both sides of this first presidential believet from both sides of this presidential election or debate. and i polled quite a bit of people c-span. i asked them food won the debate. everybody said nobody won that debate. i hope this next debate is way more professional than the first one. the problem with this country is the two-party system. it is like the engineering and the conductor are in two different unions and the keep of those unions on each other's throats at all times. we keep each party in this country on each other's throats continuously. the house of representatives was set up for population. in 1909, they stopped adding to the house of representatives. if you did the math, we should have like 5300 house of

representatives, not 5200 lobbyists. for votesing money and money being controlled in this country to sway people to vote their way is what is wrong with this the biggest part of the problem with the country. host: thank you. guest: what we see in the cycle is kind of a paradox, where candidates are promising not to a,.e money from pac part of that is because it is frankly necessary to win these races, in terms of trying to establish your name, and trying to get on the air, trying to pay for polls, which are tens of thousands of dollars sometimes. it has only become more and more expensive. mentionedf the debate

in the beginning, a think in general that has been the consensus, that nobody wants that to be. the issue is that joe did not need to win that debate. donald trump did need to win the debate. i have been speaking to republicans about what would need to happen for trump to turn his fortunes around, because as an incumbent during the pandemic, no matter how he behaved, this was always going to be a really tough race. this was not a position in the incumbent president wanted to be in. over and over again, i heard joe biden during the debates showed that he is basically not up to the job. that he would embarrass himself on stage and that would be what ultimately turned those undecided voters away from biden into trump. but what we're seeing is that biden may not have won, but trump did not come off any better.

the second debate was called off, which would have been , when trumprtunity was diagnosed with covid and then refused to debate virtually. so now we have this final two weeks before the election and the stakes are incredibly high, but also, people are already voting. before, mostned people are not changing their minds at this point, things are pretty big -- baked in. seems like that would have been a good opportunity for the trump campaign and it is hard to imagine what else could change its 14th around in the next two weeks. that said, it is 2020, i will not predict what will have in, it has proven to be pretty unpredictable. host: you mentioned the final debate this week. what do you think the format change of microphones is going to add or subtract from the debate? guest: the number one thing is

the muting of the microphones when candidates are not speaking. it will -- but interrupting will be a little bit muted. there will be more of an opportunity to hear. my concern is that afterward, basically any kind of control from a third party could be blamed for what happens, or any gaffes on stage. i am thinking that is how voters respond. this could really help trump especially if not given the opportunity to interrupt, which ended up being the thing most people were turned off by. if he is not able to do that, to his fortunes improve? may be. we will see.

host: from alaska, an undecided viewer. margaret, hello. caller: i would like to ask this lady, is she a democrat? best is sheeak speaking as a democrat? guest: i am a journalist? caller: are you representing biden? host: she has a ready said she is a journalist. though you have a comment or question? caller: i do have a question. not mentioned the medicine -- i am 80 years old, i have social security. this going around of -- they want socialized medicine -- do you know what socialized medicine is? guest: so, let's have the conversation about socialized medicine, because it sounds like you're hearing about dust a bunch of mixed messages which

have been going out for years. that is one of the most potent messages republicans believe they have this cycle, is the idea that democrats, who have proposed universal health care and things like medicare-for-all and single-payer, let that will create a social least system -- socialist system. republicans' main point going through this election is that that is the risk of electing democrats. the tricky thing is that, making the election a referendum on democrats when the president is up for reelection is really tough. there are going to be i think individual republicans in congress, especially people who are well known in their districts, who are going to be able to use that message and harness it and survive even if trump loses their district. that is something i expect to see. -- i think it is

something republicans wish donald trump would speak about more to get the attention off him and on to democrats, which is their main hope for improving their fortunes before election day. host: a supporter of president trump in pennsylvania elaine. caller: good morning. my thing is the economy. president trump was doing so well with this economy prior to way,avirus, which, by the he is not responsible for the virus. the thing that bothers me is we live in the usa. you cannot find a label that says "made in the usa." president trump is bringing businesses back to this country,

where we can have more pride, we can produce, we can keep building the economy. how can you not want that for this country? polls.he thing about the as they say, it's not over until the fat lady sings. there are a lot of republicans waiting to vote at the polls, and i know that from talking to them. republican. i am waiting and i am going to vote at the polls and so are a lot of republicans, so all of your numbers are not in yet. the undecideds could include those of us who are waiting. we are decided, we just have not voted yet. respect for of president trump. he did not divide this country, as everyone is trying to blame him for. he is a good president.

he is good for our economy. he provides jobs. guest: that economic message is that, when i talk to republicans about the election, it is something they want to talk about all the time. basically that before the pandemic, trump had a booming economy behind him. the argument is that he is best-positioned to bring in the united states back after this pandemic that was not in his control. that is the main message republicans want to talk about. the challenge is that trump is not the most disciplined messenger. so we will hear him talk about a rally, or what ends up making news, or what he ends up tweeting about is stuff like the pandemic, or about fauci, about a whole bunch of different not getting to that main point that you are

touching on, the one that you like.ting on, it sounds it seems like for trump supporters, that is a huge part of the reason why they are supporting him. and republicans want those undecided voters to make that same decisions, to be looking at those same factors and coming to those same conclusions. the issue is that with the pandemic, with people out of donaldnd the fact that trump is the incumbent when all of this is happening, in the last yearat existed is not necessarily front and center for people at this moment. at this moment, it is the fact that, their kids aren't in school, or health care potentially, a whole bunch of different things that people are focused on that i think republicans want trump to talk about basically what you just spoke about right now. host: is there a sense of when the final election will take

place, given not just the people andshow up at the polls, given all the early voting in place. guest: trump supporters for the most part are voting on election day. we can expect to have those numbers pretty early, those are the kind of first ones we will be able to see. but there are states like florida and texas, where we will start seeing numbers in the evening. basically -- you can actually add ohio to that -- basically, if it is a sense that biden best bet there is a democratic landslide, we might know that on election night. if things are closer, it might take a little longer. but is when we might the waiting days or weeks to get the final did results -- to get the final results. host: from pennsylvania a supporter of joe biden, liz. caller: thank you for taking my

call. president trump is in town tonight. i am not planning on being anywhere near there. he has been so divisive as president. the rest of the country needs to pull together and get back to what america stands for. he has left erie with a $40,000 bill that was basically campaigned. i am wondering how many other cities he has done the same to. it is not right. that taxpayers should be paying for his campaign. thank you and have a great day. host: patty in massachusetts, supporter of president trump. caller: good morning. in response to the democrat color who said that the mueller report guaranteed that the president colluded with the russians -- i thought it was the opposite, that he was proven innocent.

the report said there was no evidence he colluded. the maintaining is that he kept years.over two over the 2018 elections, demonizing the president so he lost the house to nancy pelosi. that was the atrocity of the mueller report. thank you. host: will go to larry in michigan, supporter of joe biden. hello. caller: good morning. i would like to talk about, you know, people are losing sight of the obvious. are you better today than you were four years ago? the answer will obviously be no. there is 40% of the electorate that are idiots. you know? these guys are voting the party line. factnow, they know for a that trump screwed everything up.

verything he -- host: can't use that term. the idea at least as far as personal economic situation, particularly covid and how that could sway votes, leah think?am, what do you guest: i think it is interesting how each of these individual issues are more important in defining these individual rather thans allowing a new topic to come in that would change voters' minds. we are revisiting some of the biggest news stories of the last couple of years. depending on whether you can support trump or you can't stand trump, you believe basically two different sets of philosophies, sets of facts. i think we are seeing that through these callers talking about the mueller report. just the cultural divide. the general distrust of another

part of the country or another part of the political spectrum. set a think that as much as we are talking about this through the angle of an election, and the electorate is divisive, yes, the election a divisive but it is also a reflection of the fact that our country is incredibly divided. you can't have one without having the other. i think what we're seeing in terms of the most fervent supporters on both sides is that they really are baked in their beliefs. see ifard to political message or debate or even a fundraiser changing people's minds, which will make those undecided voters so incredibly important. host: tell me what you are watching for over the next two weeks. guest: number one i think is north carolina. the senate race there has taken a few twists and turns.

, the republican incumbent tom tillis was diagnosed with covid around the same time president trump was. meanwhile, the democrat admitted to having an extramarital affair, and republicans believe their path to keeping the seat. we are seeing millions of dollars going into the state basically attacking cal cunningham, the democrat's character. basically, cal cunningham has been running on being the, like a lot of these other democratic senate candidates, kind of a safe alternative to tom -- thom tillis. republicans think they have a point against him and his trustworthiness. we want to see how this will play out in the polling. after those messages end up being on the air for a few days.

the reason why that race in particular is also because that could be a bellwether for the majority in the senate. but i will also be looking at individual members of congress, especially republicans, who have started to put a tiny bit of space between them and the president. we saw that with senator john cornyn, republican of texas a couple of days ago, saying that he preferred to talk to trump about his disagreements with him in private. we are beginning to see that some of these incumbents feel like they can't criticized trump, but they are starting to put just a bit of distance between him when asked things president?upport the i want to see about trend continues. it gives us a sense of whether republicans are seeing numbers that show trump's numbers are continuing to fall. and it could give us a sense of, if that is the case, if some

republicans are able to distance themselves enough to win reelection even if trump loses their constituents. is theeah askarinam hotline editor for "national journal," talk journal,'s washington every day we take your calls live on the air on the news of the day. we will discuss policy issues that impact you. this morning, dr. richard besser, the former cdc acting director during the obama administration, talks about federal and state coronavirus response. also, casey mulligan looks at president trump's economic record heading into the final days of campaign 2020. watch washington journal live at 7:00 eastern this morning and be sure to join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, texts, and tweets.

>> next, a discussion on the upcoming election and what to expect for the presidential, senate, and house races hosted by the american enterprise institute. this is one hour and 20 minutes. >> good morning, everyone. i'm a senior fellow at the american enterprise institute and i would like to welcome all of you to our final pre-election election watch panel. >> good morning. i would like to welcome all of you to our final pre-election panel. we will be back on november 5 midday to look at the results thus far. today, i am joined by my colleagues. we have a lot of ground to cover and i'm going to start by