barrett to the supreme court. watch live coverage monday on c-span2, stream or on-demand axes bundled or, or listen on the c-span radio app. ♪ >> with nine days left until election day, when voters decide who will control congress and occupy the white house, stay with c-span. watch coverage every day on c-span, stream or on-demand at c-span.org, or listen on the c-span radio app. your place for an unfiltered view of politics. ♪ host: david wasserman joins us. just nine days to go until election day. us. he serves as house editor at the cook political report.

your ears perked up on thursday night when president trump declared at that debate that he thinks republicans are going to retake the house november 3. is that possible? current outlook is a democratic net gain in the house. nancy pelosi is in line to expand her majority and there are a couple reasons why the picture in the house is pretty much a mirror image of what we thought a year ago when they be republicans pick up a handful of seats. that republicans are really being dragged down by trump in what i would characterize as second order suburb. are suburbs of traditionally conservative metro areas. a lot of the democrats flipped blue were suburbs of really blue major metro areas like the suburbs of denver orner than virginia. or northern virginia. seeing st. louis,

omaha, cincinnati. places that are more traditionally conservative but where republicans are struggling to rise above that drag. is money. factor democrats have outraised republicans all cycle. their donor base is fired up and passionate and increasingly has a lot of disposable income. we saw democrats outraised republicans compared to republicans out raising democrats in just 15 democratic held house seats. a big factor all cycle has been open seats. we saw a disproportionate number of house republicans head for the exits. today there are 32 open seats without a republican incumbent on the ballot. democrats have stellar opportunities to pick up republican seats in north the lines were

redrawn before this cycle. which has become the epicenter of the house battleground there are three open seats that democrats have the chance to pick up. this is really a story of a battlefield that has increasingly tilted to democrats and could be really important 2022n insurance policy in if democrats do have unified control of the house, senate and in party hasthe lost a couple dozen seats in the house. the more democrats can pad their advantage, the tougher it will be for republicans to dig out of the ditch. have questions about an individual house race, now would be a very good time to call in and ask your questions.

we can talk about the race ratings that the cook political report does. (202) 748-8001 republicans. (202) 748-8000 democrats. (202) 748-8002 independents. so in a year in which the house is not likely to flip, the senate is much more likely to flip and amid a presidential campaign that is sucking up all of the attention, what is your pitch to people of why they should pay attention? how do sell house races and battlegrounds this cycle? are a number of compelling battles out there. mightst unique situation be virginia's fifth district. there is a congressman named

lost to a former liberty university athletics official named bob good who describes himself as an biblical conservative. now the democrat cameron webb has an excellent chance to win it. he's a 37-year-old african-american doctor and official at uva medicine. and if there is high african-american turnout in southside virginia and high turnout of young voters in the charlottesville area, that could be one of the biggest upsets. there are a lot of compelling storylines in the house battlefield. going to determine a lot of what's possible legislatively in 21 and 2022. there are going to be a number of democrats from conservative leaning districts who take a

pass on the more progressive agenda items on the docket if democrats do have full control of government. the larger their margin in the house, the easier it would be for d >> that's a great point. one of the reasons i love covering house races is they give you an insight into micro-trends at the top of the ticket. we are getting reams of data at the district level. most of the polling conducted at the presidential race isn't made public. it's conducted by the parties who are making spending and resource allocation decisions in these congressional races.

we rate between 50 and 60 congressional races as competitive, they are getting pulled by the parties every week or every other week and those posters are not only testing the congressional ballot they are , testing the top of the ticket. we have good insight into what's happening. in this cycle is different from forming this ago. at this point in i was seeing 2016, flashing red warning sign for hillary clinton in places like the upper peninsula of michigan and the southern tier of new york and northern wisconsin. trump leads that had been five points in september were in the double digits or 15 points in october. that was what led me to write a story about how trump had a chance of winning the white house without winning the popular vote. this time we are noticing that , trump is under performing his margins from 2016 by eight to 10 points across the board in both

republican and democratic polling. that is the biggest tell that the national polling that sews -- that shows joe biden ahead outside of the margin of error is pretty on target. host: one of the things we like to do when we have david wasserman on is play some of the ads that voters are seeing in their districts right now. talk about how they are playing , one of the national messages in the presidential campaign for democrats especially is a focus on health care. here's one of the ads focusing on health care in georgia's sixth congressional district. that is a democratic district. here is that ad from the democratic house majority pac. [video clip] >> no one should lose health coverage because they have a pre-existing condition like cancer or high blood pressure, especially during this pandemic. but karen handel supported donald trump's plan to strip away protection from pre-existing conditions.

nearly a million georgians would lose coverage. karen handel, helping donald trump take away our health care. house majority pack is responsible for the content of this advertising. host: david wasserman on that message and how it is playing in that district but also districts around the country. number of the republicans lost seats in 2016 and are running to get them back. karen handel is one of them. democrats are continuing to use their record from the to first two years of the trump administration against them and when karen handel said she had one of the strongest trump support records, she was likely thinking about a district that had been heavily the publican for years, voted by trump -- voted for trump in 2016 but four years before that, voted for mitt romney. this district in the northern atlanta suburbs is absolutely

abandoning trump's brand of republicanism at a rapid rate and we are seeing this happen across highly college educated suburbs all over the country. this district is probably exhibit a. this race is almost entirely off the board. the national republicans are no longer spending here to support handel because they have had to move so many of their resources to playing defense. host: we played a democratic add in a place where republicans are spending money is the third district race in michigan. this is the republican congressional committee add in that race focusing on the democrat who is running for that seat. [video clip] >> fringe left-wing activists demanding sanctuary cities, open borders. >> we need immigration policy that reflects this inherent freedom of movement. >> distribute a guide on evading ice, helped the aclu sue cops , trashed them on tv while

, protecting an actual criminal. she fought to keep him here. you don't get to make the laws if you help people break the law. and rcc is responsible for the content of this advertising. host: the immigration issue in 2020. there are 233 democrats in the house, 201 republicans, and one libertarian from michigan's third district. he is not running for reelection so this is the race for his open seat in west michigan. we are seeing the immigration issue pop up across a few dozen districts. republicans are trying to do sit in this case because the democratic nominee has been an immigration attorney for a number of years. what's fascinating is republicans have to work extra hard to motivate their voters for the down ballot race because the republican nominee, peter

meyer, is a young psion of a huge grocery chain, meyer grocery stores across michigan. and has not really embraced trump so much on the campaign trail and has had the luxury of running on his own personal family brand and his family fortune. the democrat has been playing up her work for faith-based organizations, a charity in grand rapids, and she is banking on a strong performance from joe biden in michigan, particularly in the suburbs of grand rapids which are increasingly , professional, and although trump carried this district by eight four years ago, both what is believed joe biden has a narrow lead. it is fascinating to see whether that translates down ballot. you chat withlet callers and there are plenty and we are happy to talk about house races around the country. what are you interested in? give us a call on phone lines. republicans, democrats, and

independents as usual. this is regina, good morning. caller: good morning. how are you? guest: great. how are you? caller: i'm great. i'm interested in some house races going on in my area. i live in the tri-state area, ohio, cincinnati area. curious about thomas massie's race, also warren davison, district eight in ohio, as well as steve shaaban. guest: great questions. thomas massie was going to supposedly have a competitive primary. it didn't turn out so competitive after revelations of some online comments his opponent had made. kentucky's fourth district is an absolutely safe republican seat. as is ohio's eighth. the race that we are really paying attention to in cincinnati is the steve shabbat district, which is ohio's first district.

this is the city of cincinnati and some of its more upscale suburbs like mason. in 2018, democrats nominated a candidate who was a hamilton county clerk of courts. he ended up getting caught in a scandal that sunk his campaign. it was one of the few races where republicans escaped in the midterms. this time, it is steve shabbat's campaign that is under scrutiny because his former campaign treasurer apparently embezzled $100,000 from his campaign that , has come up in democratic ads. democrats nominated kate schroeder and she picked the right year to run because this is another case where trump carried the district by six points in 2016 but biden is pulling ahead. that could lift schroeder on the congressional ticket. it's funny, because in 2008,

shabbat lost the seat in the obama wave two years after surviving the year when democrats took back the house, so history could repeat itself. host: northeast of macon, georgia. democrat.me, -- amy, good morning. caller: good morning. for me here in georgia, this campaign season has been about the restoration of decency, faith in the constitution, and the rule of law. here in georgia, we have brian kemp, who craven lee and callously tried to out trump on the covid-19 response. we have david perdue, who could not run fast enough to his brokers to monetize what he knew about the coronavirus and its effects on our communities.

we have doug collins and kelly loeffler who are racing to the bottom towards crazy and qanon. so i am so excited for the first time to be voting for candidates on the lower ballot. we have rafale more knock. they have a real chance in georgia to turn our state blue so i'm super excited. can you speak to those candidates for me? thank you. guest: georgia is really a fascinating state in 2020 and, of course, joe biden is going to be traveling to georgia, which is big news because, for the most part, democrats have focused their energy on what we would consider the core battleground states in the upper midwest and states like florida and arizona. but in georgia, there's a chance that both of those senate races

on the ballot end up going to a january 5 runoff. the calculus for democrats in the state is that they need to run up the margins in both atlanta and the atlanta suburbs. we mentioned georgia's six districts, but democrats have a pickup opportunity in gwinnett county, which is the seventh congressional district. the republican is retiring. the democrat carolyn bordeaux is, in my opinion, the slight favorite to pick up a seat against republican er doctor rich mccormick. that district has seen an awful lot of spending but anything touching gwinnett county might be cursed for republicans this year considering how much of a melting pot it's become and how its professional workforce has migrated out of the republican coalition. the real key, in my opinion, for who is going to win the state both at the presidential and the senate level is going to be rural african-american turnout. we know that both republicans

and metro atlanta voters are fired up. in 2016, we saw black turnout in rural georgia go down. one of my favorite bellwethers in the state is peach county. it is outside macon. it's home to the bluebird bus corporation. it happens to be the best bellwether because in 2012, when black turnout was 73% in the county, barack obama managed to carry it. when black turnout fell to 54%, donald trump carried it. the question is can kamala harris's addition to the ticket , can the increased enthusiasm about voting this year raise , turnout in rural georgia to the point where democrats can win it statewide? are lower turnout affairs so if one or both of these races go to a january runoff, what does lower turnout

-- who benefits from lower turnout? guest: most likely republicans. that has been the pattern in georgia for a number of years. democrats probably have the better opportunity to win outright in the perdue seat because we know the other seat is essentially a jungle primary on the november 3 ballot that's guaranteed to go to a runoff. once you get to a runoff scenario, it could actually be

host: we will head to detroit, michigan. democrats. caller: i was interested in the campaign for lauren underwood in naperville, illinois. pres. trump: -- guest: this is the district that accredits won in 2018. they flipped to blue. this time around, republicans

had high hopes of winning it back. this is the outer chicago suburbs and lauren underwood is a young former public health nurse in her early 30's and an african-american who is able to win a district that is less than 10% black. this is perhaps a missed opportunity for republicans. they were trying to nominate a fresh face for the seat. instead, they and stop having a very divisive primary and the winner with only a quarter of the vote was a dairy businessman who has run for statewide office in illinois something like eight or nine time and has never won. he has gotten a lot of negatives from those bruising races he has run and most voters are familiar with him as a perennial candidate and don't particularly have a fond opinion of him. this is one that has pretty much

moved off the table where republicans are no longer putting up much of a fight. host: cookpolitical.com is where you can go to find ratings we are talking about. always good to have you and your folks with us on this program. we are taking calls asking what races are you interested in around the country. (202) 748-8001 republicans. democrats (202) 748-8000. , (202) 748-8002. a couple more ads on the topic of trying to tie these house candidates to more well-known republicans and democrats. i want to start with the anti-tax group the club for growth. here's that ad. [video clip] >> if abigail spanberger truly cared about virginia, why would

she vote against virginia? with nancy pelosi 90%, nearly as much with socialist aoc. why would she support higher income taxes on virginians and push policies that could raise payroll taxes, and why would she take so much money from defund the police extremists? if she truly cared about virginia. because the truth is she doesn't. club for growth action is responsible for the content of this advertising. host: that ad running in virginia's seventh district. there is this ad by the house majority pac that is spending quite a bit of money this cycle tying republican candidate with van dyne to donald trump in texas's 24th district. [video clip] >> beth van dyne and donald trump joined at the hip on health care. they took campaign cash from polluters that could make us sick. they supported a plan to take away health care from millions and protections for pre-existing

conditions and then ignored the science, recklessly siding with politicians on reopening. their health care record is sickening. house majority pack is responsible for the content of this advertising. host: that ad running in that open 24th district race. on tying the candidates to others in the party to try to turn out vote or amplify your side. guest: the problem for republicans is that voters see them as the incumbent party functionally with donald trump in the white house. typically, reelection campaigns for presidents become referenda on the incumbent white house and in this case, that's not helpful to republicans. republicans' message against nancy pelosi and aoc may be more effective in a midterm year like 2022 when democrats are

advancing their own policy initiatives through the house and senate. we will see if the political environment worsens in that scenario. for now, abigail spanberger is ahead of her opponent in the richmond suburbs. we are seeing in texas' 24th district, that has become such a hotbed of corporate relocations from blue states like california both irving, texas and plano, texas are moving rapidly in democrats' direction. it's going to be awfully hard for republicans to hold onto that particular seat, and a democrat named candace vallance willa who is afro latina is probably the favorite to flip that seat blue. host: down to florida now a , republican in bradenton. good morning. caller: i'm actually in saint augustine. i just want to say i'm a big

fan. i follow you religiously on twitter. i voted early in florida and even though i'm a republican, i voted for joe biden because of my opposition to trump. even though i voted for joe biden i wanted to ask about the , supreme court, it looks like amy coney barrett will be confirmed and there will be a six to three conservative majority. suppose biden gets elected and democrats take both houses of congress, how much of an impact would a 6-3 conservative supreme court have on biden's agenda and how would it play politically? thank you. guest: i think it depends a lot on how the supreme court retrospectively views the aca and roe v. wade. that will prompt a lot of what democrats decide to embark on if they win unified control. i should note that in your backyard, we are watching a competitive congressional race

between incumbent republican vern buchanan, who has held the seat for over a decade, and democrat margaret good, who beat his son in a special election for the statehouse last cycle. the ad wars are heating up even in traditionally republican parts of florida like sarasota. ♪