every day on c-span. c-span.org,mand at or listen on the c-span radio app. >> c-span's "washington journal." every day we are taking your calls live on the air on the news of the day, and we will discuss policy issues that impact you. thursday morning, we will discuss the role pennsylvania will play in the 2020 election. watch c-span's "washington journal" live at 7:00 eastern thursday morning, and be sure to join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, text, and tweets. ng us from cleveland ohio -- cleveland, ohio is the associate director of the community research institute at -- baldwin wallace

university, lauren copeland. let me begin with early voting. what should and should not we read into the numbers? guest: i don't think we should read too much into the numbers. are votingocrats early at much higher rates than republicans. that thepect to see early vote will look a lot more democratic than republican, and the in person vote on election day well look a lot more republican than democratic, which should balance things out in ohio. one other predictions for voter turnout overall? guest: ohio traditionally has a higher rate of voter turnout than other states in the country, because it is a swing state and because our elections are so competitive. in the past, it has been upwards of 60%, and i think we can see even higher voter turnout ra

te this election season. host: walk us through the history of how ohio has voted in previous presidential elections. guest: so there is a saying that is soe -- saying that goes ohio, so goes the nation. it is a saying that has the virtue of being true. no republican has ever won the white house without winning the presidency. since 1964, ohio voted for the winning candidate in every single presidential election. is it considered purple? guest: it is a purple state, but it is trending more towards red, so unlike other postindustrial michigan, states like wisconsin, and pennsylvania,

where trump won by less than one percentage point in 2016, in ohio, trump won by eight percentage points. ,n the 2018 midterm election republicans it the state with the exception of sherrod brown who won reelection. so suggests that ohio is moving further to the right than it has been in the past. host: let's talk about the polling you all are doing. what is your polling showing you ,bout the great lakes area ohio, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and what those voters are telling you versus four years ago? performingbiden is much better in these four states that hillary clinton was four years ago. there's a couple of reasons for that. number one, joe biden has

favorability ratings that are positive in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. they are neutral in ohio. ohioans, asthat well as people in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania, think joe biden could do a donald trumpan of handling the coronavirus outbreak or pandemic, as well as unifying the country. ohio has been one of the states hardest hit by the coronavirus jobseak, and its effect on , so the unemployment rate here in april was actually just as high as it was in 1976 when they started tracking this in ohio. there are some things working for trump in the state, and then includes our demographics. we have slower growth rates than the rest of the country.

we also have a less diverse population, and we have more white voters with less education than the rest of the country, and all of these demographic , buts favor donald trump we see biden making inroads among key groups that donald won inne in 2016 -- 2016, including white working-class voters and those without a college degree. --t: what is unique without about the great lakes state polling that you do? why do you do that, in ohio specifically echo guest: in -- specifically? guest: in 2019, we were interested in the question of whether ohio was a bellwether state. we know ohio is a swing state, but in the past, it has been a bellwether state, meaning what happens in ohio is reflective of what happens in the country as a whole.

but we are also interested in whether joe biden or the retaketic nominee would michigan, ohio, and wisconsin since trump won those three states by less than 80,000 votes. so we decided to look at these four states as a whole because we believe that, if joe biden could flip michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania, he could easily win the presidency. the interesting thing about ohio this time around is that joe biden does not need to win ohio to win the presidency, but if he wins ohio, it is lights out for trump. it is hard to envision trump has a path to the white house unless he wins ohio. host: why is that? guest: so donald trump has not expanded the elect oral maps since 2016, so if you -- the

2016, so ifp since you look at the map and flip wisconsin, pennsylvania, tohigan, then biden gets more than 270 electoral college votes, so joe biden has an easier climb to the white house than trump does this time around. also, if biden wins florida, the theces of him winning presidency go up to about 99%. so trump also needs to hold onto florida in order to have a chance of winning this election. host: we are getting our viewers involved in this conversation as well. if you are supporting the atsident, vice president: (202) 748-8001. if you are supporting the vice president -- the former vice senator, and the kamala harris, (202) 748-8000.

ohio voters: two (202) 748-8003 -- call in to (202) 748-8003. caller: good morning, greta. host: go ahead. caller: i'm voting joe biden me, is donald trump, to not the a pit of the of a president. -- the a president. epitome of a president. if 90hard on china and some percent of news media saying negative things about donald trump, how could you support him? donald trump is in the news every day. i could turn on my news every day and there is donald trump. , he is thethis biggest national security threat

to the united states we have ever had. how can you have a president have a meeting with putin and there is no notes. he met with the last time with putin and there were no -- there was no u.s. interpreter. donald trump has money in the bank of china, and the bank of russia. the chinese have office in manhattan. donald trump charged the u.s. government $8 million to go to mar-a-lago. he's a hard-working president, but he has been out of the country -- on golf trips for 280 days. the government office said donald trump sent 141 million dollars for the general public just for him to go back and forth from mar-a-lago. say donald trump entities or hotel entities, they

charged -- if that is not a monument, he is so -- host: we will leave it there. are you pulling on the issue of character for these two candidates? guest: we have not been polling the issue of character, but i do know that there are reluctant voters who prefer president trump's policies but want joe biden's temperament. that is where we see undecided voters. point, trump's net favorability rating is underwater in ohio, negative seven points. among independents, that number is -23 points. that suggests people are concerned about his temperament, as well as the desire to return to normalcy.

i think some of that is reflected in carol's comment as well. peoples a sense that believe biden will bring normalcy back to the presidency, and that is why we see a lot of the political action committees like the lincoln project and 43 for 46 supporting joe biden this time around. what are the independent voters in ohio likely to do from your polling, and do they turn out to vote? guest: i think we will see turnout higher amongs independents then in 2016.

much votinge not so for clinton because they liked her but because they did not like donald trump. in contrast, joe biden has done a great job as presenting himself as this scrappy kid from scranton and someone who will stand up for white working-class voters. thisnk for independents means that they are going to be more willing to go out and vote this time around because we do not have a polarizing candidate on the democratic ticket, like we did in 2016. now, those who support trump may disagree with me and call joe biden a socialist who is going to raise taxes and someone who is too far to the left, but i think he is quite centrist democrats and that appeals to independents in ohio. host: john, supporting the president in florida. caller: how are you? host: morning. caller: good morning to you,

also. host: go ahead, john. questions.ave a few how do you think ohio is going to look for biden? when you watch biden chooses vp, on aa harris, who presidential debate called him a sexist and racist, yet, she accepted his nomination as vp for the vice presidency of our country. if you really watch c-span, cnn, msnbc, fox -- i watch them all. i voted for biden -- i voted for obama twice. i was offended when i heard oprah winfrey on national television make this statement -- i guess white america has spoken. shucks. white americans spoke when we

voted obama in, so where is your systemic racism? this is a fallacy in our country. actually -- it actually upsets me that you consider most of the population in our country a racist country, where every other country in the world wants to come to our country. we need to look deeper and allow open debates in our colleges, not just college people that come on television and give us their view. john, lauren copeland, speak to john's comments about the vice president's vp pick with senator harris. bitt: i was a little confused. could clarify his statement about her acceptance of the vp? host: during the primary debates

he is saying senator harris called the former vice president a racist and a sexist, and how she could then go with him. i am wondering about her being the vp candidate in ohio and how that is playing out. harris willnk who are democrats farther to the left to go out and vote. independentsoff and people who are further to the right, but i think she was a thatpick overall, given people have criticized joe biden for being 78 years old and just another white guy. i think kamala harris brings energy to the ticket. also, what i hear the caller

saying is he is tired of people treating any demographic group as a monolithic group. thati hear him saying is there might be a tendency for votersto classify white or white working-class voters as racist, when that is not the case. it is just like when we look at women in the battleground states or even in the u.s. as a whole. republican women are very different from democratic women, and, so, it is hard to treat women as a demographic group as a whole. i hear the frustration in the caller's's voice about the tendency to classify white voters as racist when it is usually party id that drives vote choice and not people's attitudes on race. host: let's talk about some of

the groups in ohio. they are not all going to vote the same way, but what about suburban women in ohio? guest: yeah, so we cannot break the data down to suburban women, but we have broken it down to the suburbs. the reason we cannot break it down to suburban women is we start getting into numbers that are so small that the margin of error is so high to render the data meaningless, but we see joe biden leading in the suburbs of ohio. we also see people in the people equally likely as in urban areas to disapprove of how trump is handling the coronavirus, and we also see people in the suburbs believing joe biden is the better candidate to unify the country. i think biden is evidently cutting into trump's lead among

the suburbs, and he could be the wins ohioat, if biden -- which i am not sure he will -- that the suburbs will help them get there. host: what about religious voters? either evangelical, christian voters? how do they tend to vote in ohio? guest: one of the reasons ohio is more conservative than michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania is the religiosity rates are higher here, and they tend to vote for republican candidates often because they are pro-life and they are worried about democrats expanding abortion rights, for example. for i think is interesting the religious vote this time around is now that amy coney barrett has been confirmed to the supreme court, they know there is a 6-3 conservative majority on the court that may

make decisions about abortion that would further restrict rights, and that could free up their vote for biden if that was their main concern about his candidacy. ohio,james and cleveland, supporting the president. hi, james. caller: good morning. thanks for taking my call. host: go ahead. caller: lauren, i live right up the road from baldwin wallace. i take great issue with some of the comments you are making on air today. had a nerveinally to put my trump sign in my front yard. my neighbors are also trump fans, and the are too scared to because of radical democrats. they're worried about getting a brick throwing their window or a paintball shot at their home. i totally disagree where you are saying joe biden is leading in the suburbs.

i think that is a fate. i think -- i think that is a fake. i think you are trying to see what you want to see with your research. i disagree with with your comments and i would like to hear your response. guest: here is my response, or whatever political predispositions i might have or my colleague might have at weldon wallace university, or than -- baldwin wallace university, more than anything, we want our polling to be accurate. we take great measures to make sure it is. my comments on biden dean and the suburbs are based strictly on the data -- leading in the suburbs are based strictly on data and not my opinion. some of the things we do in our polls to make sure we don't underestimate trump support in ohio is we wait by education -- weight by education so people without college degrees are sample, andin the

we also have caps on place on the urban and suburban vote, so the rural boat is not underrepresented in our -- vote is not underrepresented in our polls. everything i am saying is based strictly on the numbers and not what i would like to see or what my political predispositions might be. of course, you are free to disagree with me, but all i am doing is reporting that the data say. host: can people find the data you have accumulated on website bw.edu? a googlere, if they do search for baldwin wallace great lakes phone, we have all four sets of holes we have done up we have done,s and we have detailed exactly how we do our polling. one of the reasons we do this is that i want to be able to sleep at night, so we are completely transparent about how we conduct

our surveys. in will become ohio, supporting the biden-harris ticket. hi, ken. caller: good morning, thank you particular call. i am supporting biden-harris. , andalso a suburban woman just on the whole, donald trump's leadership as it regards to the coronavirus has been completely lacking. having left the management of it up to the states regarding human lives, he said, "it is what it is." he turned a global health issue into a political issue, where his supporters did not wear masks. if we had followed the science instead of opinion or his wanting to downplay it and not cause panic, per his words, that we would not be where we are now 's virus. he runs ads right out saying we

will not be safe in joe biden's america, but the footage is of events happening now on his watch. i am not sure that is a message she wants to put out there. -- he is notible responsible for the actions of people who destroy property, but he could have dialed back his -- law andtance order stance and been a leader in that regard, as well. he had peaceful protesters cast for a photo op of holding a bible upside down in front of for a photo- gassed op of holding a bible upside down in front of the church. host: how did you and your fellow suburban females vote in 2016? guest: i voted for obama in 2016. i have to say, even though i am typically a democrat, i am not solidified in that.

if there were a republican weredate whose values truer to the republican form, i may have voted for that person because even though i am typically a democrat, i am not set on joe biden as a precedent. and some concerns flip-flopping on the issues, and just with trump having over 500 children separated from their issues,with immigration calling women nasty, and they are monsters and the divisiveness, and him tweeting that he does not know what qanon is, telling white supremacists to stand back and stand by, and then having them take that message of violence as sort of a cue to say, ok, guys, standby. host: all right, kim.

heard your point. lauren copeland, what do you make of a female suburban woman in ohio? guest: on the ground, that is what i am hearing, as well. i am in a more conservative suburb who voted for trump in vote.ith 60% of the i think what we are seeing is the nationalization of local politics, where issues like the coronavirus and the coarsening of political discourse are affecting politics on the ground . just yesterday, i received a the gop if youom want to keep the schools open in strongsville, you should support trump. i thought that was quite interesting. also to kim's point, it is

surprising this year that ohio is even on the table given that trump won by eight points in 2016 and that the republicans did so well in the state in 2018, so what i hear from kim is that there has been a failure of leadership at the national level and that is what is making ohio a competitive state once again in 2020. people are specifically concerned about the coronavirus. not only because it could affect our health but because it affects their daily lives, where people with children in schools have to deal with whether their kids are going to be in school or doing remote schooling, and they have to adjust their work and daycare schedules. so the issues that trump is addressing or not addressing are definitely affecting suburban women here in ohio. host: tom, dayton, ohio. supporting the president.

caller: yes, i am. he is the least racist person i have ever known, donald trump. you can even ask herschel walker. this ain't a racist country. we voted for a mixed man, obama, half-light, half, two times in a row. we are not -- half white, half black, two times in a row. we are not a racist country. i am not going to vote for joe biden. i voted for president obama the first time. i did not vote for him the second time because of his trade deal, the pacific trade partnership. that is what joe biden did with nafta. he sent our jobs out of here. i will not vote for somebody like that. host: tom, let's pick up on trade deals, lauren copeland. the president renegotiating nafta. it passed and the president signed into law. does that help them in ohio? guest: i think it can go both

ways. i think what trump does really well is that he speaks to people who feel that they have been left behind in the postindustrial economy, and that was something that hillary 2016.n failed to do in biden is trying to make inroads among people who are concerned about that issue. i am not sure how that plays out in the election on tuesday. host: we will go to cincinnati, ohio, mark supporting biden. good morning. caller: good morning, thanks for taking the call thank you thank you for c-span so much. i really want to compliment you guys on your impartiality, as you always do as commenters. lauren, i wanted to ask, i am a retired educator, and i just wanted you to dig down deeper into the uneducated stat and what does that really mean?

you started to address that, but what are the implications of the uneducated? thanks for taking the call. guest: sure. so what we see across the country, not only in ohio, but across the country, is that tomp's face tends to be include white working-class voters without a college degree. i think that goes back to my previous comment that trump does a really good job reaching out to that group and his messaging is really on point that this group has been left behind by the postindustrial economy. polese are seeing inner is that biden -- what we are polls is biting is making progress in this group, and trump has not been

able to restore the jobs, like at lordstown, that he promised he would do. i am trying to pull up the .umbers with those with a four-year degree, trump is up three points, but in 2016, he carried the group by 25 points. among those without a college degree, a group trump carried by 30 points in 2016 according to the exit polls, trump is only up 12 points. we also see biden performing better among people ages 65 and older. we are seeing that trump is still winning among people --white people without college degrees, but his lead has shrunk based on the polling data in 2020. host: chris in canton, ohio,

supporting the biden-harris ticket. caller: i appreciate you taking my call. there has a lot that has been said this morning. kim hit a lot of it, the caller before, for mr. biden. i think the president sets the tone for the country. look andpeaks, people hear, and they pick up on a lot of that rhetoric that he spills out and then says, oh, i did not mean that or i was joking. know? it started with his inauguration with the american carnage speech. i thought we were living in a third world country when i heard that speech. now i feel like we are in american carnage now. issues that he don't agree with. the alternative sex came into

view. he reversed obama policies. a majority of the democrats and republicans i know in our neighborhood, we wear masks to protect others, or our grandchildren. it is not a big deal. it is not like putting a hazmat suit on. you take it off as soon as you get out of the grocery store. ourollow laws, we fly flags, pay taxes, a volunteer to help children and i have a daughter in the military. all of these things, democrats and republicans do, we are not terrible people. as far as masks, doctors wear a mask to protect the patient. any of these people that do not think masks do anything, you would not want to go into an operating room where a doctor is not wearing a mask ready to take out your gallbladder. virus -- the

pedro: we will host: leave it -- host:we believe that there. lauren copeland, what are you hearing from that voter? guest: i'm sorry, what was your name again? host: i think it was kim. is that people are tired to the extent with which trump has exacerbated polarization in american politics. we see this concept of negative partisanship, or even in their interpersonal interactions, people tend to automatically assume that democrats are bad people if they are republicans and vice versa if they are, that's -- if they are democrats. what i hear kim saying is there is a desire to unify rather than divide the country, and that joe

biden is the better candidate to do that. he is also the better candidate toed on what she is saying lead the country in terms of the by setting pandemic an example for americans by wearing a mask. fromntrast, we have seen the trump administration is complete disregard for science. a few days ago, mark meadows trump had given up on trying to control the coronavirus pandemic and would try to address it through therapies and vaccines instead. saying islly here kim this desire to return to normalcy, unify the country, and reduce the polarization in american politics. host: dave in ohio, sheffield lake, undecided. how come you are undecided?

caller: well, first about, i am we will make it to the voting day. i am kind of leaning one way, but we will see. i appreciate your show. thanks, gretchen. i work from home, so i get to watch c-span all debris host: do you want to talk -- c-span all day. host: do you want to talk about which way you are leaning and why? guest: -- caller: i may be leaning toward president trump because of economic reasons coming out of the pandemic, but i do not like his handling of the pandemic. i think that might have cost him potential reelection. iscomment to ms. copeland unscientific observations. in my county, i am seeing half-and-half of signs of biden and trump. it is really hard to say which way the counties leaning.

i know ohioans hold close to their best with the last -- vest until the last second who they are going to vote for. carwash, if it had two lanes, one per biden and trump, and one of the cities, i was wondering if you looked at that to see what they came up with on that one? the third point is whether they know about the green party candidate? host: lauren copeland, go ahead. guest: i do not know of the carwash, but i have into the candy shop off of 480 outside of cleveland. they have soda bottles with trump and biden on them, and a sign asking consumers to vote for trump or biden by purchasing one or the other. trump was definitely leading when i was there one month ago. and yardthese things signs are not great indicators of how the boat is going to

shake -- vote is going to shake out. they are better indicators of enthusiasm for a candidate. trump see people with signs or biden signs, it is more likely that they feel very strongly about their vote and it is not really a great indicator of who is going to win the election. in terms of the economy, we do see a majority of ohioans saying that they approve of the way trump is handling the economy. i completely agree with the caller that trump's achilles' heel is likely his handling of the coronavirus outbreak. economy approval ratings are fairly high decide the fact that the ohio economy is not doing too great right now in terms of unemployment rates. laserhere is the westlake

wash with sign, "let's clean up dirty politics. if you are supporting biden or a democrat on the left, usually one. if you support president trump or conservative, use lane two." here are some coverage of that. canton, ohio,nd supporting the biden-harris ticket. you have to turned on the television. talk and listen to your phone. caller: ok, hold on a minute. called on. -- hold on. guest: the carwash thing is interesting. host: you will have to follow-up up with them, lauren copeland. are you ready? caller: i took the remote and hit low. host: all right, you have to start talking. ready -- allyou right, jerry, you ready? i'm going to put jerry on hold

-- are you there? you ready? the. caller: -- go. caller: i am voting for joe biden. donald trump in 2016, in four years for ohio, he has not did nothing for ohio. says when he got elected as president, he says, oh, i love you, ohio! i love you well! i'm going to come back and do a lot for ohio. he has not did nothing for ohio. in the four years, he did worse. stores are shutting down. ohio issteel mills in practically gone. and the other thing is that i wanted to say is, is any candidate running for president of the united states as donald five did who has had bankruptcies to six bankruptcies

in the past should not be president of the united -- karen for president of the united states to run for president of the united states. canton, ohio.y in lauren copeland? guest: in 2016, trump said something quite interesting. he said, what do you have to lose? vote for me. the democrats have not done much for you. i think he was speaking not only to the african-american community but two people who work in this deal mills or -- steel mills or the automobile industry. i's i think this caller's opinion is reflective of the fact that although trump made a lot of promises for people working in these industries that these policy promises have not translated into policy outcomes.

in 2016, people started, sure, what do we have to lose? we will vote for you. largely we are, voting based on trump's performance in the past four years. there is a gap between what he promised and what he has been able to deliver. to be fair, that is true for every single president. we saw obama make a lot of campaign promises that he was not able to deliver on, as well. i would not say that is specific to trump, but i do understand the frustration among people who thought that trump could bring about change in ohio. host: lauren copeland, that is a perfect segue into our phone calls in this last half-hour. we are going to talk about promises made by the president. look at his first term, promises kept and promises not realized. thank you for the conversation

this morning and our focus >> with six days left until election day, when voters decide who will control congress and occupy the white house next year. stay with c-span. watch campaign 2020 coverage every day on c-span. stream on-demand at c-span.org or listen on the c-span radio app, your place for an unfiltered view of politics. journal,'s washington every day taking your calls live on the news of the day, and we will discuss policy issues that impact you. thursday morning, we discuss the role pennsylvania will play in the 2020 election with julia brown and nicholas clark.

watch washington journal live at 7:00 eastern thursday morning and joined the discussion with your phone calls, texts, and tweets. >> here is a look at what is live thursday. on c-span, our campaign 2020 inerage includes two rallies tampa, starting with president trump at 1:30 p.m. eastern, joe biden as 6:30. at 8:00 p.m., bernie sanders hosts an event with kamala harris. the-span two at 9:00 a.m., carnegie endowment for international peace looks at how the international community views the u.s.. then former attorney general eric holder and former house speaker newt gingrich talk about voting in the 2020 election. at 2:00 p.m., more on election day and what to expect from the bipartisan policy center. >> with six days before the