watch campaign 2020 coverage every day. listen in the c-span radio app. -- your place for an unfiltered view of congress. >> c-span's washington journal. we are taking your calls live in the news of the day. we will discuss policy issues that impact you. friday morning, we will examine the congressional and presidential campaign in north carolina with a political reporter, host of spectrum tv's capital tonight. also during the program, david mcclendon. director of the meredith pole in meredith college. journal at 7:00 eastern. be sure to join the discussion with your phone calls, text messages, and tweets.

>> we are back with nick clark. clark, associate professor at susquehanna university. what do polls say right now in this snapshot of time about where the race stands? average thenes that different polls put vice president biden ahead between roughly 4% and 6%. frank then and marshall has a new poll this morning i think with some of the upper end of that trajectory. there are some single polls that give him more of an advantage. it is looking like biden as an advantage between 4% and 6%. host: is it enough to get out of the margin of error? guest: i believe so. on the high side the margin is around five point. even if the vice president were to come down a percentage point, that would be enough to do it. that is a high margin though.

most cases will be between 3 and five point. we will not know on election night because they will be ballots being counted for the days afterwards. it does look at the polls. if they are accurate, the vice president will pull this off. host: 20 electoral votes at state. what role with the state play in this election? guest: if it is close, if the polls are largely wrong and none of the other states and play such as florida or north carolina or georgia or arizona are competitive, pennsylvania will decide it. we may not know the outcome on election night. we will know if it is close or if it is more of a landslide for the vice president. if it is close, it will likely come down to pennsylvania. host: what about those who don't traditionally vote? how are they voting -- how did they voting 2016? how are the candidates getting

them to show up this time around? guest: we expect turn out to be higher. pennsylvania typically has a higher turnout rate and the rest of the country. there are between 30% and 40% of eligible voters that are not turning out. president trump did mobilize new people to the polls last time. he may do so again this election. we are getting evidence their people voting for the first time for vice president biden because they think the election has consequence. they are being motivated to turn out as well. i think both campaigns are focused more on turnout than on trying to get new voters to the polls. i think there have been efforts to register new voters by both parties. republicans have had some edge but i think they above focused on turnout with their own base supporters. on thehat is your take supreme court yesterday and their decision on pennsylvania's ballots?

guest: obviously it has consequence. it means the state can continue counting ballots it receives for a few days after the election. if the election is close, if the margin of error works in the somethings favor, between 0% and 1% by 2016, those additional ballots may make a difference. at this point in time the supreme court's decisions have favored continuing to count ballots, which may be to the favor of vice president biden. i don't think that question is settled. i think if we get to november 4 and there is not a clear answer, they will continue to be legal challenges and the court may hear the decision again. host: what are the rules in place in pennsylvania for a recount? margin, ihin the

think it is roughly under 1% where there is an automatic one. i think you will see both campaigns challenging to have a recount if it is anywhere close to 1%. i think likely we will see a recount because the consequences will be so dire. host: where will you be watching? what pockets of pennsylvania are you watching on election night and one? -- why? guest: some counties flipped from blue to red in 2016 that could affect -- that could in effect flip back. on the eastern side of the state. you recounting in the northwest part of the state. erie countyounty -- in the northwest part of the state. there is a decent chance those three could go back to blue. i think beaver county, that has traditionally been more

republican but it did go blue and 2018 in the midterms. you could see that coming back. west of philadelphia, we could see that flip. and cumberland in the center. most counties that are red or blue in 2012 and 2016 will remain so. there are five or six counties that could flip back. i think the overall margins across the state, if the vice president is able to do 5% or 6% better in traditionally right counties, that could make up the difference from 2016. host: we will go to gary and philadelphia supporting the president. good morning. caller: so, you will never change philadelphia and pittsburgh. they will always be democratic strongholds. they always have been. i think we will see in pennsylvania, one, a lot of trump supporters -- there is a

lot of violence towards trump supporters. people had their homes damaged, signs taken away, attacked on the streets. jews in new york getting attacked when they are for trump. there is a lot of negative sentiment towards trump supporters. what i think you will see in pennsylvania in the further suburban areas are people who don't want their counties to turn into the areas that are democratically run. i believe it was lancaster county that had an incident where there was a police shooting. there were protests. it almost turned into riots. instead of turning into a full out riot, they charged every single person who was arrested and they are pushing them through the justice system. they are not ignoring it. when we talk about law and order and we talk about what kind of administration we want, i think it is evident in pennsylvania

when you see in those rural counties they put a quick quash on any issue that arose. i think that speaks volumes. host: nick clark? think as i said before, i most right counties will stay red. the law and order message the president is advancing is likely with voters who decided they will support the president there is not a lot of evidence it is changing anyone's mind. it is really resonating with people who are already embedded. the question is will it mobilize turnout? will trump supporters be more likely to vote because they are concerned about these law and order issues? i have my doubts because i think it's already a highly mobilized group. they are likely to turn out and vote. i suspect gary is right. pennsylvania stays red, that may one of the expo nations but i have some doubts right now.

host: how confident are you in polling this time around? guest: we are in a different situation. we have more state polling now. a lot of the polling people were basing their projections on back in 2016 were national polls. we did not have as many staples as we have now. there are more consistent indicators of what is going on in each state. i think they have accounted for some of the errors they had in 2016. essentially they were not weighting demographics that were likely to support the president as much. we are seeing that now. i am fairly confident because of the differences that make of the polling methodology that they may be more accurate. we can see that in 2018. they were far more accurate pricking outcomes and 2016. 2016. host: what are voters saying now about this election?

guest: that is primarily whites without a college education. that group remains pretty friendly supportive of the president, particularly white men without a college education. we have seen some movement with white women without a college of asian. -- without a college education. decker supported the president in 2016 by 10 to 20 point. it is basically even between vice president biden and president trump in that group right now. that group does for the remain in the president's camp. there are a lot of voters without a college education in pennsylvania, which is what makes it much more of a swing state. host: david from florida, supporting the president. caller: thank you. i have a couple of points. i now live in florida. i am 82. viewpointn overall but i'm an avid trump supporter

because i watched him as i was growing up in philadelphia. what he could get done in new york when nobody else could, because i did work in new york for a while. as far as the university of pennsylvania, my father graduated from the university of pennsylvania and university of pennsylvania law school. has --tell you, biden what do they call them? a big fund at the university of pennsylvania. the chinese are the people that gave him the money for that fund at the university of pennsylvania. my father would be turning over in his grave. pittsburgh. i love pittsburgh. it is booming. ozing with people.

they had to put in new bridges. son got a $6,500 raise. anything people say about trump did not do this and trump did not do that and trump lies, nobody actually tells me what was the lie he told. clark, our people better off in pennsylvania than they were four years ago? guest: i don't think so. i'm not sure even the president's supporters are saying that. they look to the president is the one that improved the situation. his success in 2016 was based on a message around change. we are going to make your lives better. he is trying to repeat that message even though he is coming at this as an incumbent. i think supporters are going along with it. a lot of what is wrong with the country are factors beyond the president's control.

by reelecting him he may be able to address those and make the country better. host: what about independents, nonvoters, swing voters? guest: i think independents and swing voters look more like democrats who were saying the country is not better off, in fact it is worse off. there is dramatic need for change in the don't look at the president has the one they can deliver that. they look at him is responsible for the situation. it is roughly in the high 80's and low 90's amongst democrats would say that. the high 60's among independents. host: gerrit in michigan, you are undecided. caller: i was listening to the program here. i heard an individual calling for michigan, just a couple of towns over from where i live. his comments were not spiteful. then i heard the philadelphia caller call in. she started screaming and

raving, don't tell us how to do things. you don't know it's happening in philadelphia. weess the tv is lying to us, are seeing the riots in the business is being burned to the ground. we do know what the hell is going on in philadelphia. we have a right to our opinions. what is happening in philadelphia and a lot of the other big cities are democratically-controlled that are being destroyed. i'm a lifelong democrat myself. where i have gotten to the point where i am frustrated is in 2016 we cast our ballots. but even when bernie sanders runs, hillary clinton got the superdelegates. host: are you undecided? you sound like you know you are voting for. caller: after listening to the back on conversations, i am leaning strongly towards the president. i will tell you what. when i hear people blaming him

for different things -- i will give you an example. the cost of living has gone up. part of that is because of the pandemic. how was the president responsible for that? they need to take responsibility for their own actions and stop blaming -- they keep saying donald trump is lying but they will not tell us what the lie is. host: charles in trenton, florida, supporting the former vice president. caller: i was just wanting to make a comment about the fracking. i know that is a big issue in pennsylvania. -- ifot sure if i were everyone is aware of but fracking is dependent on the price of oil. right now there is an oil war between russia and saudi arabia. fracking is off the table. it is too expensive to try to do. to complain about what biden things about that is kind of irrelevant. clark'st me get nick

perspective on the question of fracking. does it alienate voters? comments,resident's does it alienate voters in pennsylvania? guest: somebody voters already have their minds made up if they will support him or not it is unlikely to have an effect. it does resonate because fracking is a big part of the pennsylvania economy. it helped create new jobs and fueled additional revenue into the local economies and the state economy. it does resonate with voters here but i'm not convinced it is moving the dial in terms of the likely outcome of the election. i think most people have their minds made up. you asked about what is different about 2020? undecided.rs were genuinely undecided. they tended to break in the president's favor a few days before the election. at the same moment in earlier we

are looking at 4% to 5% whose minds are not made up, genuinely undecided. they areof those, probably already leaning a direction. it is hard to imagine fracking is affecting more than a handful of people. host: the president and the former vice president holding dueling campaign rallies today in tampa, florida. the president will be there at 1:30 p.m. eastern time. we will have coverage of his event right here on c-span and on our website, c-span.org. four listen on the go with the free c-span radio app. in the evening time, joe biden will be there at 6:30 p.m. eastern time. you can watch it here on c-span and on our website and the radio app. let's go to donna in hampton, virginia, supporting -- charles in trenton, florida. you are on the air with nick

clark. donna? good morning. caller: i am having fun with your phone call. trying to get there was a nightmare. host: we are having a little bit of an issue this morning. caller: the girl said he got some bad weather. i am wondering why you don't have an independent line anymore. i think that is the one i should be calling under. i have a couple of comments for your guest. memberseveral family who were going to vote for trump for one good reason because their 401(k)s have gone through the roof. they are very happy he is in office and they will reelect him. i also have at least six family members that are in the medical field in several different states. one is a director of a big hospital in tallahassee.

the coded thing is wore out. that is what the democrats are counting on. they have no issues in their hospitals. host: i want to get nick clark's perspective on health care the aca and covid-19, how that has impacted the race in pennsylvania. guest: i think covid is probably impacting the race everywhere. amongst supporters, you might find people like donna who think the issue is not salient or the pandemic is somehow handled and we are over it. amongst independent voters, they are not seeing the same reality. they think the pandemic is very much ongoing. they are concerned about how the federal government is responding to that. i don't think it is a given every independent voter will flit from president trump to

vice president biden but i think overall the issue is probably a plus for vice president biden. host: nate in milwaukee. caller: thank you for having me. i was calling because i know gerrymandering is an issue pennsylvania has to deal with, like wisconsin. in 2018, trump supported the gerrymandering which is basically rigged elections. one thing i was going to ask about on that issue on taking away people's freedom when it is,s to state elections does pennsylvania, like wisconsin, still have a gerrymandered state legislature that is not responsive to voters and undermining the governor's efforts to deal with coronavirus? we have had problems with that. say i thinkl

gerrymandering is something both parties have engaged in. while i agree they can and does work against democratic intentions, it is not something nce of to the provide republicans. pennsylvania has been dealing with this. congressional districts were redrawn by court order roughly two years ago. that is part of what created a situation where three public and districts flipped in 2018. -- republican districts flipped in 2018. state house representatives have remained largely intact. i don't think we have seen a lot of effort the area to redraw them. there is some gerrymandering going on there. that has been to the benefit of republicans at the statehouse. i don't think it is unique to the republican party in pennsylvania or anywhere else. host: undecided, ned? caller: hi.

it is getting interesting out there. the whole fracking thing getting worked out there in pennsylvania, the industry is actually shifting over to start using geothermal technology. hopefully that might have people's -- that might affect people's voting outcome if that is an issue for them. upanted to bring one thing you are not talking about. withnk we need to focus on the pandemic surging in all the hospitals across the nation going to be overwhelmed with we are under attack from russian cyber attacks going on targeting our health care infrastructure

across the nation. john inwill go on to pennsylvania supporting the vice president. caller: yes. i am a registered republican for more than 20 years. am a never trumper. in 2016, hillary clinton was able to win chester county. obama did not win chester county. it seemed like there was a big shift in chester county. i wondering how much of this anti-trump is coming from philadelphia. chester is 60 miles from atlantic city. being knowledgeable of what happened in atlantic city with trump bankrupting four casinos and receiving $1 billion worth of debt relief and not paying taxes on that.

you areet debt relief, taxed on that debt relief. trump, according to the atlantic city press, he never paid taxes on that $1 billion he got in debt relief. it seemed like atlantic city was the only place reporting on what was going on there. and event make it, during the campaign of 2016, none of that stuff -- host: nick clark? guest: i suspect it is a small effect because it might be people living in chester county that are more likely to have known someone affected by that. mediak in general the coverage of the president and his financial situation and the issues he's had over the years have been pretty widely covered. it was covered before he was president. i think most people will have draw the conclusions and have

done so it may be less information and based on what the national media has been saying. i am not sure his business ventures in atlantic city had a pronounced effect on how people are voting. i think there are more moderate republicans in chester county who are more prone to the president because they disagreed with his general approach or positions. host: lauren in kyle, texas. caller: yes. earlier the guest said that voters weren't really seeing the president's promise of is your life better now than it was four years ago. my husband is from pittsburgh. i will tell you how our lives have improved. i think it is indicative of a lot of folks. we did not vote for trump but we will be because we were lower middle class living paycheck-to-paycheck before this president.

in the last 18 month alone i have received two races because of the tax decrease my company, a 20% increase in my 401(k). the lowest refinancing rate of pay down debt to make home improvements and increasing the value of our home. and saving tremendously at the gas pump. all these things have taken us from lower-class to middle-class. we don't want to go back to living paycheck-to-paycheck again, even if that means four more years of trump's friends where the delivery of his message. -- cringe worthy delivery of his message. guest: i think that message was far more effective for the pandemic. -- before the pandemic. their people for whom that will still resonate. because of the pandemic and the shut down, i'm not saying it is the fault of the president. he did not bring the pandemic about. the fact most people are not in as good of the situation, he has not been able to rely on the

booming, growing economy to the same extent he could have a year ago. i am not sure how any people feel that position. there are others out there voting for the same reasons you are. the question is what does that look like in the aggregate? i'm not sure that favors the president in the same way anymore. host: michelle in harrisburg, pennsylvania, supporting the biden-harris ticket. caller: good morning. am i on? element to say one's did speak about geothermal energy. , we what i understand simply don't have access as they would where they are moving towards electricity, this fuel cell energy. the use ofture bans oil-run vehicles in the future.

we are moving away from that anyway. host: ok, michelle. ticket i like the biden because donald trump has done a lot of lying. he is not consistent with the truth. i don't have any kind of respect for anyone that tells lies. host: nick clark, his character and issue? issues?aracter an guest: it is likely due to character issues. i don't think it is based on his policy position all right everything he says. rather it is a broader estimation of his character. the other thing interesting to me is a lot of collars are talking about energy. it does illustrate the potential impact of that during the debate. a lot of observers did nothing to debate moved the needle at all. it has certainly stimulated an

interesting discussion about energy. i think that is one positive outcome from it. host: bernard in mount pleasant, pennsylvania, supporting the president. caller: thank you for taking my call. i am a supporter of the president because as for being in westmore county, our last industry probably is fracking. democratsblishment lostepublicans we had the steel mills. i believe trump is trying to keep pennsylvania alive and i hope to see more coverage from somebody about some of the laptop from mr. biden. i don't know if it is true or not. i would like somebody other than fox to do a report on it. thank you.

have a good day. host: nick clark, let's talk about other races beyond the presidency you will be watching on election night. guest: the senate for sure. it is looking more like democrats could flip the senate. i think there is still some uncertainty around that. there is a lot of key races and that, including arizona and colorado. it is looking pretty likely the democrats will win there but is not for sure. maine and iowa and north carolina are likely to be closer. alabama will likely flip from the democrats to republicans. there are some really interesting races shaping up in red states like south carolina and alaska and kansas and even mississippi. i don't think mississippi will go blue but it has been more competitive than we have seen for a while. the senate will definitely be receiving a lot of attention. and thethe house races

control of the house is far listing question -- lesson question. democrats could gain more or lose seats but i don't think there will be a tremendous effect with the house. we will see interesting statewide races. there are a number of statehouses up for contention. speaking to the caller asking about jerry manning, we are entering -- gerrymandering, statehouses will be redrawing district. it is interesting which party is controlling them. some could flip in this election. the: we will be focusing on -- on who will control congress on election night right here on c-span. our coverage gets underway at 9:00 p.m. eastern time on c-span, c-span.org, and download the free c-span radio app. stay with us that night because we will bring you results from these key house and senate races nick clark was talking about. you can watch it all here on

c-span, your place for unfiltered view of politics. the election rallies happening today. you can see our coverage if you go to our website, c-span.org. we will cover both candidates in tampa right here on c-span. the president at 1:30 p.m., and the vice president at 6:30 p.m. eastern. wendy in michigan, you support the biden-harris ticket. caller: i think after listening kushner's information that he had with bob woodward last night, i think pennsylvania is just another notch that donald trump wants to implement his plan to weaken our democracy. he does not give a crap about

anyone pennsylvania. keningt wants to keep wea our democracy and he will do anything and everything to win everywhere he can so he can continue his diabolical plan of becoming an authoritarian. host: nick clark? female voters in this election, what role did they play in 2016? what role can they play this time around? guest: i think of the vice president wins, it will be due to female voters. they are far more likely to support the vice president than male voters, by over a 20% margin at this point. when we talk about the suburbs flipping to blue from red, which is part of what we have seen in pennsylvania and 2018 midterms, a lot of people anticipate it will happen in 2020, it is

because of female voters in the suburbs. if the presidency changes hands, that will be due to supportive fema voters. -- fema voters. -- female voters. host: you are supporting the president? caller: yes. with the fossil fuels biden wants to get rid of and go all electric, electric cars will have to draw on electric. california as of now, without the fossil fuels, they are having brownouts. people are not thinking about that. where are you going to get all the power from? i need to hear biden answer tough questions. he has taken no tough questions. they are thing is leading this country towards socialism.

the democrats are going to far-left. -- too far left. host: tell us about bucks county. guest: it will be key. it did go for secretary clinton by a small margin back in 2016. i think the biden-harris campaign is having to win it by a larger margin in 2020. bucks county and berks county west of philadelphia are two places where we might see an effect like that. the new york times had an op-ed the other day, and opinion editorial from bucks county that thinks it will go trump because the number of trump signs in the county. i think the polling does not necessarily back that up, nor do the 2016 or 2018 returns. i think it will be important and

i suspect it will go for the vice president. bill tallahassee, florida, supporting biden. caller: thanks for taking my call. just a couple of questions regarding this whole thing with people in the fracking and the weight the trump campaign has played this out as if biden does not support things that are going on in his home state. people --ll me how these are his fellow citizens , they willew up at just take what he said and allow this guided twisted? -- guy to twist it? guest: if you were talking about the president's supporters, they are like the people already supporting him and are strongly republican. because the vice president was born in scranton, you would not

respect republican voters to gravitate to him for that reason. if there is anyone whose might has been changed around the question of fracking, it is probably people in the industry or in towns imported by fracking. there are towns in the state of pennsylvania -- i'm not saying fracking is good but it has injected much needed money to keep towns alive. a lot of people view the economic situations, their ability to live as being somewhat at stake in the industry. i don't the recent debate or discussion on the program today is shifting any minds. a lot of fracking supporters the already perceived democrats as being unfriendly to the industry and they decided to support the president or the republican party more broadly. host: what is the ground game like for both campaigns? guest: in pennsylvania it is pretty intense. they both recognize a could come down to this state.

the vice president has a lot of money. he has been able to extend his state,nto the t of the the alabama portion of the state. where i met in clets growth, almost the dead center, a heavy republican county by three to one. the airways have a lot of -- airwaves have a lot of biden ads. it is very different from 2016. the borough where i live here in snyder county, back in 2016 there were a lot of trump signs. there still are today. supporters are out in full force. if you walk around the borough itself, there are a lot of biden signs. i say it's about 50-50 within the borough itself. that is not the case in the countryside. that was not the case back in 2016.

you saw no clinton signs at that point. i don't know what that means for the outcome. i think the president will win this county and almost all the other red counties in the state but i don't know if it will be by the same margins as 2016. host: care to give a prediction for this election? who do you think will win pennsylvania? guest: i think it will be the vice president. it may be by a narrow margin and i don't know -- we won't know election night or maybe even by the end of that week. i think when it is all said and done the vice president is likely to have one in. host: fred and marilyn supporting the president. caller: thank you for c-span. this is in reference to the previous caller from pittsburgh saying she was better off. that saidsaw a poll 56% of americans said they were better off now than they were four years ago. i am thinking that might be

because of the first three years of the trump administration, blue-collar wages went up more than white collar wages. character was referenced earlier. i am wondering if in pennsylvania this hunter biden laptop story might get some legs, particularly because of facebook and twitter's actions. i am wondering if that might resonate some. greta, could c-span have the new york post reporter on c-span sometime to take questions fro m us? host: nick clark? guest: there are much fewer undecided voters right now. if you have made up your mind, it is unlikely to be changed by the hunter biden story. we have not seen this story have the same effect essay james

comey coming out and saying the fbi was investigating secretary clinton back in 2016. to be quite honest with you, people are tired of scandal. they are tired of it on both sides. i think something like the hunter biden allegations are far less likely to shape anyone's opinion because we have seen so many of these sorts of things on both sides of the aisle. people don't know what to believe and they are exhausted with it. people are looking at other metrics to decide how to vote. if it is as close as it was in 2016, a difference of 44,000 votes, and something like the laptop somehow changes the minds of 10,000 or 15,000 people, it will get the president even closer. maybe that will make a difference. host: kathy in ohio. why do you support the former vice president? because heupport him

is smart enough and a good enough leader to move our country in the right direction. because itall upset is so important. the changes and the decisions being made right now in the sorts and in our states are important. people are starting to finally realize it. i would say people from pennsylvania, i lived in ridley creek state park for six years. a beautiful place. if anybody and pennsylvania thinks donald trump cares about you, look at what is happening with fracking. i understand what people are saying about working in the industry and they are afraid of losing their jobs. that is trump pulling you into voting for you -- bullying you into voting for you. listen to people like tom ridge and the epa before they were forced to change their detection limits so development could continue in a bad way.

listen to the right people. voters, be your own ear. trump is just usingg yhost: nicu watching for in the days leading up to tuesday? guest: we continue to watch for the number of early ballots that are cast. as the number goes up. we know that is skewing heavily democratic. basically we are watching both candidates to see what they are doing on the ground. i don't think there is anything either candidate will say that will shake up the race. i think for most people it is just waiting in anticipation right now. we have entered the stage where it is a western of getting to election day. >> c-span is washington journal.

we are taking your calls live on the air. up friday morning, we'll examine this year's presidential presidentialof -- lesson campaign. also during the program is david. a professor of police science at meredith college in north carolina. watch c-span's washington journal, live at 7:00 eastern on friday money. make sure to join the discussion with your phone call, facebook comments, text messages and tweets. >> with five days left until election day, on november 3, when voters decide who will control congress and occupy the white house next year, stay with c-span, watch camping 20 -- campaign 2020 coverage.