unfiltered view of politics. >> we are back with nick clark, political science associate professor at susquehanna university. do polls say what right now in this snapshot of time about where the race stands? the very different polls put vice president biden i had between roughly 4% and 6%. franklin and marshall has the new palau this morning that puts him on the upper end of that trajectory. there are single polls that give him more of an advantage. it's looking like biden has an advantage between 4% and 6%. host: what do you make of that advantage? is that enough to get out of the margin of error? >> i believe so. the margin of error is around five points. if the vice president were to come down, that would certainly be enough to do it. that's a high-margin.

in most cases it will be between three and five points. to know ongoing election night because there will still be ballots being counted for the days afterward. host: 20 electoral votes at stake. what role do you think the state will play in this election? close, ifelection is the polls are largely wrong right now and none of the other florida or carolina or georgia -- we may not know the outcome in pennsylvania on election night. we will know for sure if it is closed. if it is closed it will likely come down to pennsylvania. host: what about those who don't routinely vote. what what do we know about whether or not the candidates

are getting them to show up this time around. >> we expect turn out to be higher. pennsylvania typically has a higher turnout rate and the rest of the country. president trump to mobilize new people to the polls last time and he may do so again this election. we are also getting some evidence that there are people voting for the first time for vice president biden because they think the election has consequence and so they are being motivated to turn out as well. both campaigns are probably focused more on turn and they are on trying to get new voters to the polls. there have been efforts to register new voters by both parties and the republicans have had some edge. right now they are focused more on turnout with their own base of supporters. host: what is your take on the supreme court and their decision

on pennsylvania's ballot? >> it obviously has consequence because it means that if the election is closed, if the margin of air works in the president's favor and we see an election where the difference is something between 0% and 1%, those additional ballots may make a difference. at this point in time the supreme court's decision continuing to count ballots most democrats are voting through absentee or early voting. i don't think that question is settled. i think if there's not a clear answer there's going to continue to be legal challenges in the court may still hear that decision again. host: what are the rules in place in pennsylvania for a recount?

>> it's within the margin that i think is roughly under 1% where there is an automatic one. i think you're going to see both campaigns challenging in order to have a recount. if it's anywhere close to 1% and we will likely see a recount just because the consequences are going to be so dire. you behere will watching? what pockets of pennsylvania liu be watching on election night and why? fromme counties flipped blue to red. on the eastern side of the state. every county in the northwest side of the state, those are all counties that were once blue and flipped. flipped back to blue and the 2010 midterms. there's a decent chance those three could go back to blue.

beaver county in pittsburgh has traditionally been a more republican county. you could see that coming back. berks county in philadelphia. we could see that flip and then cumberland in the center. the map is going to look largely the same. most of the counties that are red or blue in 2012 and 2016 are going to remain so. but there are five or six counties that could flip back. the overall margins across the state, if the vice president is .ble to do 5% or 6% better host: gary in philadelphia supporting the president. good morning. you're never going to change philadelphia and pittsburgh. they are always going to be democratic strongholds. i think we are going to see in pennsylvania a lot of trump

supporters aren't going to come out, there's a lot of violence towards trump supporters. been attacked on the street. jewish people in new york getting attacked when they are for trump. there's a lot of violence and give sentiment towards trump supporters in general. people don't want their counties to turn into areas that are democratically run. i believe it was lancaster county that had an incident where there was a police shooting and there were protests. they charged every single person who was arrested. so when we talk about law and what and we talk about

kind of administration do we want, i think it's very evident in pennsylvania when you see in those rural counties that they put a quick quash to any issues that arose. i think that speaks volumes to what we are going to see in the middle of pennsylvania. >> most read counties are going to stay red. i think law and order is resonating with voters who have already decided they are going to support the president. there's not a lot of evidence in the polling data that it's changing anyone's mind. it's just resonating with people who are already convinced. to question is is it going motivate greater turnout. i have my doubts about that because i think it's already highly mobilized group. right if atu are the end of the day the polls are on and pennsylvania stays red.

i had some doubts about it right now. confident are you in pulling this time around? differentin a situation. a lot of the polling that a lot of people were basing their wheretions on in 2016 national polls. we didn't have as many state goals as now. the polls have accounted for some of the air in 2016. they weren't waiting the preferences of demographics that were likely to support the president as much and we are seeing that right now. i'm fairly confident just because of the differences. host: the demographics that were not weighted enough in the 2016 polls, what were those voters

saying now about this election? primarily whites without a college education. without aly white men college education. we have seen some movement with white women without a college education. that particular group supported the president in 2016 by 10 to 20 points. it's basically even amongst that group right now. that group does firmly remain in the president's camp. there are a lot of white voters in pennsylvania without a college education which makes it more of a swing state. host: phyllis in pennsylvania supporting the president. caller: i have a couple of points. i now live in florida. i'm 82.

an avid trump supporter because i watched him as i was growing up in philadelphia and what he could get done in new york when nobody else could because i did work in new york for a while, too. as the university of pennsylvania, my father graduated from the university of pennsylvania and university of pennsylvania law school. at me tell you that biden has big fund there at the university of pennsylvania and i don't know if he even went there. but the chinese are the people that gave him the money for that fund at the university of pennsylvania and my father would be turning over in his grave. secondly, pittsburgh. i used to live in pittsburgh. i love pittsburgh. oozing withtely people. you can barely get across the street. they had to put in new bridges.

within a year of trump coming into got a $6,500 raise. anything that people say about trump didn't do this, nobody actually tells me what was the lie he told. host: are people saying that they are better off in pennsylvania than they were four years ago? don't think so and i'm not sure that even the president supporters are saying that i still think they look to the president as the one that can improve that situation. his success in 2016 was largely based on a message around change. he is in a lot of ways trying to repeat that message even though he's coming as an incumbent and his supporters think a lot of what is still wrong with the country are factors beyond the

president's control. by reelecting him they may be able to make it even better. independence,ut nonvoters, swing voters? >> i think independence and swing voters are looking a lot more like democrats. but there is dramatic need for change and they don't look to the president as the one that can deliver that. they looked primarily at him as responsible for the situation. it's roughly in the high 80's and low 90's. host: jared, beachwood, michigan. caller: i was listening to the program. i heard his comments, they went spiteful. then i heard the philadelphia caller and she started screaming

and ranting and raving, don't tell us how to do things, you don't know what's happening in philadelphia. us andthe tv is lying to we are turning it on and seeing the riots and businesses being burned to the ground, then we do know what's going on in philadelphia and we have a right to our opinion. in what's happening philadelphia and a lot of the other big cities are democratically controlled there being destroyed. where i've gotten to the point that i'm frustrated is in 2016 we cast our ballots. even when bernie sanders won, hillary clinton got the superdelegates. host: are you undecided? listeningonest after to the background conversations, i'm leaning strongly toward the president of the united states and i will tell you the reason

why. when i hear people blaming him for different things, i will give you an example. the cost of living has gone up. part of that is because of this pandemic. they need to take responsibility for their own actions and stop blaming. they keep saying donald trump is lying, but they won't tell what the lie is. host: charles supporting the former vice president. caller: i wanted to make a comment about the fracking. i know that's a big issue in pennsylvania. fracking is so dependent on the price of oil around the world. fracking is off the table. it's too expensive to even try to do. to complain about what biden thinks about that is kind of irrelevant.

host: on this question of fracking, does it alienate voters? alienate voters in pennsylvania? voters haveo many their minds made up. it does resonate with pennsylvania voters because fracking is a big part of the pennsylvania economy. revenueueled additional into local economies and the state economy. i think the issue resonates with voters that i'm not convinced it's moving the dial at all. host: why? >> i think most people have their minds made up. you asked what is different about 2020 and 2016. there were still 12% of voters who were undecided. they tended to break in the president's favor.

this same moment and earlier, we are looking at 4% and 5% of voters whose minds are not made up and are genuinely undecided. imagine that the fracking issues affecting more than a handful of people. host: the president and vice president are holding dueling campaign rallies today in tampa, florida. the president will be there at 1:30 p.m. eastern time. thisll have coverage of event right here on c-span. you can listen on the go with the free c-span radio app. and then in the evening time, joe budden will be there at 6:30 p.m. eastern time. you can watch it here on c-span on our website or on the radio app. charles, you are on the air with

nick clark. fun with yourving phone calls. trying to get through is a nightmare. that you'verl said got some mad weather. i'm wondering why you don't have an independent line anymore. that's the one i should be calling under. i have a couple comments for your guest. i have several family members who are going to vote for trump for one good reason. have goneeir 401(k)s through the roof. they are very happy that he's in office and they will reelect him. i also have at least a six family members that are in the medical field in several different states. one is a director of a big

hospital in tallahassee. the covid thing. it wore out. that was what the democrats were counting to carry them through until election day. and it's not. they have no issues in their hospitals. clark'swant to get nick perspective on health and covid-19. is impacting this race in pennsylvania. impacting covid is the race everywhere. might find people like donna who think the issue is not salient or that the pandemic has somehow been handled and we are over it. they independent voters, are not seeing the same reality. they think the pandemic is very much ongoing. they are concerned about how the federal government is responding to that. i don't think it's a given that

every independent voter is going to flip from president trump to vice president biden. overall the issue has probably been a plus for vice president biden. host: in milwaukee. caller: thank you for having me. i was calling in part because i know that gerrymandering is an issue that pennsylvania has to deal with like in wisconsin. 20, trump supported gerrymandering which is basically rigged elections. the issue on taking away people's freedom when it comes to state elections is does pennsylvania still have a j mandate state legislature that voters andonsive to is undermining the governor's effort potentially like wisconsin to deal with corona violence -- coronavirus because we have had problems with that.

i will say that gerrymandering is something both parties have engaged in. i agree that it can and does work against democratic intentions, the democrats have done it as well. most notably currently in the state of illinois. pennsylvania has been dealing with this. the congressional districts were redrawn by court order roughly two years ago. it is part of what created a situation where three republican held congressional districts in pennsylvania flipped in 2018. i believe the districts have remained largely intact. there is indeed some gerrymandering going on. think it's unique to the republican party that we see efforts at gerrymandering.

host: ned in idaho, undecided. it's getting interesting out there. the whole fracking thing that is getting worked out in pennsylvania, the industry is startshifting over to using geothermal technologies is what's happening. have affectat might people's voting outcome if that's an issue for them. bring one thing up that you are not talking about. i think we really need to focus , with the pandemic surgeon right now and all the hospitals across the nation, going to be properly overwhelmed using facilities, they have just learned we are under attack from onsian cyber attacks going targeting our health care

infrastructure across the nation. host: i'm going to go on to john in berwick, pennsylvania. caller: i'm a registered republican for more than 20 years and i am a never trump her. in 2016, hillary clinton was able to win chester county. obama did not win chester county and it seemed like there was a big shift and i'm wondering how much of this anti-trump is andng from -- philadelphia chester is less than 60 miles from atlantic city. knowledgeable of what happened in atlantic city, bankrupting casinos and receiving $1 billion worth of debt relief and not paying taxes

on that. if you get any debt relief, you are taxed on that debt relief. thetrump according to atlantic city press, he never billiones on that $1 that he got in debt relief. cityt seems like atlantic was the only place reporting on what was going on. it did not make it and even during the campaign of 2016 not of that stuff came out. >> i would suppose if it has any effect it might be because there are people living in chester county that are likely to have known someone that was affected by that. the media coverage of the president and his financial situation and the issues that he's had over the years has been pretty widely covered. even before he was president. most people that are going to

have drawn the conclusions you are putting out that likely will have done so with maybe less information. not sure his business ventures i think it is there more moderate republicans in chester county who are more prone to the president because they disagree with his positions. host: lawrence is in texas. caller: hello. said votersguest were not really seeing the president's promise of how is your life better now that it was four years ago? my husband is from pittsburgh and i will tell you how our life has improved. it is indicative of a lot of folks. we did not vote for trump, but we will be. middle-class living paycheck-to-paycheck before this president in the

last 18 months i have received two raises because of the tax decrease for my company, a 20% increase in my 401(k), the lowest refinancing rate possible to pay down debt and make home improvements, increasing the value of our home, and saving tremendously at the gas pump. all of these have taken us from lower-class to middle-class and we do not want to go back. even if that means former years of trump's cringe worthy delivery of the message. host: nick clark. guest: i think that message was far more effective before the pandemic. i think there are still people like lauren for whom that will resonate. but because of the pandemic and the shutdown -- i am not saying it is the fault of the president. he did not bring the pandemic about. but most people are not in as good of the situation. he has not been able to rely on

the booming economy to the extent he could have a year ago. i am not sure how many people are still in your position. i believe there are others and they may be voting the same way for the same reasons. the question is what does that look like an aggregate? i am not sure that favors the president in the same way. host: michelle inherits berg, in harrisburg, pennsylvania supporting the biden-harris ticket. caller: hello.

[indiscernible] donald trump has done a lot of lying. he is not consistent with the truth and i do not have any kind of respect for somebody who tells lies. clark, hisick character and issue? guest: yes, especially for republicans and independents for more conservative thinking about voting against the president. i do not think it is based on his policy positions or even on everything he says but a broader estimation of his character. the other thing that is callers areis talking about the third debate. a lot of observers did not think the debate moved the needle.

it certainly has stimulated an interesting discussion about energy. i think that is one positive outcome from it. host: bernard in mount pleasant, pennsylvania supporting the president. caller: thank you for taking my call. i am a supporter of the president because, being in industrynia, our last is fracking. ,hat under establishment democrats and republicans, we lost the steel mills. i believe trump is trying to keep pennsylvania alive and i hope to see more coverage from somebody about some of the from mr.ke this laptop biden. i do not know if it is true or not. i would like somebody other than fox to do a report on it.

thank you and have a good day. host: nick clark, let us talk about the other races be on the presidency you will be watching election night. guest: the senate for sure. it is looking more and more like democrats could flip the senate, but i think there is still some uncertainty. there is a lot of key races including arizona and colorado. it is looking pretty likely democrats will win, but not for sure. iowa, and north carolina are likely to be closer. alabama will likely flip to the republicans. there are shakeups in red states like mississippi and alaska. i do not think mississippi will go blue, but it has been more competitive then we have seen for a while. the senate will receive a lot of attention. races ande house

control of the house, democrats could gain more and they could lose some seats, but i do not think there will be a tremendous effect. we will see some interesting statewide races. a number of statehouses are up for contention. speaking to the caller earlier talking about gerrymandering, we are entering a phase when statehouses will be retrying districts. it is important which parties control them and there are a few statehouses the conflict control in the selection. who: we will be focusing on will control congress on election night right here on c-span. our coverage gets underway at 9:00 p.m. eastern time on c-span, c-span.org, and you can download the free c-span radio app. stay with us that night because we will bring you results from these key house and senate races that nick clark was talking about and you can watch it all on c-span.

unfilteredfor unfruitfu politics. the election rallies happening today. you can see our coverage if you go to our website, c-span.org. we will cover both candidates in tampa right here on c-span. p.m. and the 1:30 vice president 6:30 p.m. eastern. wendy in michigan, you support the biden-harris ticket. hi, wendy. caller: hi. to jaredtening that hes information had with bob woodward last night, i think pennsylvania is just another notch the donald trump wants to implement his plan to weaken our democracy. rapdoes not give a c

about anybody in pennsylvania. he just wants to keep weakening our democracy and he will do anything and everything to win anywhere he can so that he can continue his diabolical plan of becoming an authoritarian. host: we heard your point. female voters in the selection. what role do they play in 2016 and what role could the play this time around? guest: i think if the vice president wins the election it will be due to female voters. therefore more likely to support him over a 20% margin. when we talk about the suburbs flipping to blue from red, which is part of what we have seen in pennsylvania and the 2018 midterm election and what a lot of people are anticipating now, that will be because a female

voters. -- of female voters. if the presidency changes hands, it will be part because of the female voters. host: rosemary, what is the name of your town? caller: we are in bucks county. host: you are supporting the president. caller: yes. with the fossil fuels biden wants to get rid of and go all electric, electric cars will have to draw on electric and in california, as of right now, without the fossil fuels, they are having brownouts. people are not thinking about that. where are you going to get the power from? i need to hear biden answer some to questions. questionsen no tough they arether thing is leading this country toward socialism.