continues. host: back with us is john berry, author of the book "the great influenza: the story of the deadliest epidemic in history -- pandemic in history."

and we are coming up on 11 months of this pandemic, nearly 440 thousand deaths, 26 million cases in the united states. 11 months into the great influenza pandemic, where was the united states when it came to infection levels and deaths? guest: one of the differences between influenza and covid-19's which the speed it moves. everything with influenza is faster from mutation rate, incubation period, how long you shed the virus and how long you are sick. 11 months into it, it was almost completely over. by that time you had close to 700,000 americans dead, of course the population was much smaller than worldwide, 50 to 100 million dead which would be 225 to 450 million people today.

a much more lethal pandemic. this is bad enough. host: he will be with us until about 9:30 taking your phone calls, and questions as we talk about the covid-19 pandemic comparisons the great influenza. let me give you the phone numbers. if you are in the eastern or central time zones, 202-748-8000 . more pacific time zones, -- mountain or pacific time zones, 202-748-8001. when it comes to the nonmedical pandemic responses to the mask use, and lockdowns, avoidance of large public gatherings, who did better at it, america of 2020 and 2021 or america of 1918 or 1919? guest: they were probably better in 1918. there was certainly no

partisanship. it was so very lent in -- maryland -- virilent in 1918, and a lot of people were younger, ranging from 18 to 45 years old. people died sometimes with horrific symptoms and sometimes in as little as 12 hours. so everyone took it seriously. the government, because we were at war, and was trying to keep morale up, they thought that anything that sounded bad would hurt the war effort. they outright lied and said it was ordinary influenza, no big deal. but, nobody believed them because so many people were dying so rapidly, and in some cases so horribly. so, there was acceptance of the

orders really without much resistance in 1918. when cities -- all of the decisions were pretty much made on a city by city basis back then, not statewide much less nationally. there was some resistance when cities imposed a masking order lifted them because they thought the pandemic had passed, and of course it surged back and they raised regulations, lifted them too early, and when it came back and they reimposed things like masking a second time, then there was some resistance. nothing like what we are seeing today. host: we are betting that vaccines will end covid-19. what ended the great influenza? guest: herd immunity, which is what we are trying to reach.

obviously, if you get it from a vaccine, you will have fewer people dead than if you get it from natural immunity. so, by the time -- there were three waves in 1918, and by the end of the third wave it was widely disseminated, the virus, and most people had been exposed and had natural immunity. the virus does mutate, so it did come back, but it mutated in the direction of -- this is speculation -- it mutated in the direction of all influenza viruses which is milder than it had been in the fall of 1918. it became ordinary influenza. the descendents of that virus still circulate. host: the mutation issue is relevant as we talked about mutations. how much did they know about virus mutations? guest: they did not know

anything. they did not know there was a virus -- what a virus was. they knew there were small entities that they did not know if they were tiny bacteria and functioned like bacteria or whether they were entirely different organisms. one of the scientific advances that came out of the pandemic in 1918 was defining what a virus was. but, they were certainly very familiar with bacteria and understood that bacteria could be -- what bacteria could be. but this whole thing moved so fast. the spring wave was mild and hit or miss. there were a lot of places that did not get hit at all by it. it was also much milder. it did not attract any attention. the virus mutated in the fall, came back very deadly and, probably two thirds of the

deaths over the two year period occurred in a period of 14 and 15 weeks in the fall of 1918. in any particular city, it was faster than that, six to 10 weeks. so they did not have much time to respond. they tried. the book focuses both on the politics, and on the scientific community, most of the figures in the book are scientists, and they were great scientists. again, the advances that came out of that pandemic were extraordinary and shaped the science that we are doing today, including the discovery of the dna coal -- code and so forth. they just did not have time to react. here, the virus is sequenced, literally 48 hours after the sequence was published, people were already designing the

messenger rna vaccines. the communication, and the ability to respond today is host: it's a fascinating book on the 1918 pandemic. john berry with a perspective on what is happening today compared to what is happening in the past. several callers waiting to talk to you. you're are on with john berry. caller: thanks for taking my call. the next book you should write is biological warfare and how fabulously unique our money will possibly crash. you probably know more than anyone how the influenza in 1918

also came from china. which has been just recently exposed to us. i just wonder was the money at that time damaged by the influenza? the covid i believe will destroy the united states because the money -- it is just a piece of paper with a picture will be worth basically nothing and all the investors are going to start investing in china. i see all of this as a pandemic that was designed. i wanted to get your thought on that. thank you so much for writing the book. i'm going to get it today. host: on china and impacts of the economy. caller: in the book -- guest: in the book i said the

pandemic emerged in the united states in kansas. the evidence at the time i wrote the book was pretty good. i wrote a journal article that got a lot of traction. there has been a lot of wars since the book originally came out in 2004. it emerged in china. it could've happened anywhere. hiv is from africa. the 2009 pandemic which turned out to be nothing but it did spread came from mexico. lyme's disease from connecticut. i think it probably did happen in china. there was significant economic impact in 1918. nothing like what we have seen in the past year. as i said earlier, it was so brief. you had a relatively brief

recession. interestingly there were several studies earlier this year by some conservative economists that concluded that cities in 1918 close down earlier and stayed closed longer. actually had a faster and better economic recovery then the cities that closed for a shorter period. kind of relevant, i think. we are all living through not a good economic time. i live in new orleans. i am in the tourism industry, that is number one in this area. that is decimated. i understand the economic

devastation that this pandemic is caused. much greater actually than in 1918. host: in wisconsin, this is patty. caller: this is very personal. i am 75 years old. my dad was born in 1917. his family lost immediate family members from the influenza. it was in milwaukee, wisconsin when the shoulders -- soldiers returned. on the railroad line it hit those very badly. my dad came down with polio. our family was hit hard with polio in the 50's. i don't like the blame game.

we are international as the war brought home the virus in 1918-1920. why are we blaming? let's work on vaccinating. thank you. guest: in terms of where it started, it could've started anywhere. it probably started in china. there's a very good meteorologist -- urologist who's convinced it started in france. it could've started anywhere. you don't need a war, you don't need airplanes for it to spread in a pandemic. in the 1600s influenza took 6-8 weeks to cross the ocean. it is second to only smallpox in

terms of native americans. in 1889, there were no airplanes, no war. that probably did not come out of china. i think the war probably accelerated the spread. the spread would have occurred anyway. host: to your home state of louisiana, this is ken. caller: i'm doing my family genealogy. by coincidence i found my grandmother. she was born in 1883 and died in 1917 in philadelphia, pennsylvania.

i stumbled into this library. what is interesting about it is she died at philadelphia hospital from contagious diseases. she went in december 25, christmas day and died december 30. she was born and raised in south carolina. i'm still trying to figure out how she got to philadelphia. there it is. that was one of my biggest fines in my research. i have the death certificate in my hand. this is not the first time. i can't quite read this, something like that. anyway, i have it in my hand. it is quite a find, she was 34 years old. guest: philadelphia was one of the hardest hit cities. i don't know if he misspoke.

people died from influenza without the pandemic as they could today. it was 1918, that would've been the pandemic virus. 1917, probably not. the virus was probably circulating somewhere in 1917. host: we talk about what ended the pandemic, we got to the point in this country where flu -- we took precautions but it wasn't a daily part of our lives. after the coronavirus was over, do you think we ever go back to how we felt about the flu before coronavirus? do you think masks and some form of social distancing is here to stay?

guest: i think two things. the effectiveness of the vaccine number one. i think it is pretty clear -- i'm certainly not the only one saying this. pretty much every expert is saying this. covid-19 is here to stay. this virus is going to continue to mutate. it is theoretically possible -- it will mutate in a direction to evade vaccines. we will probably need the vaccines updated routinely since

it moves more slowly than influenza. we might need a new vaccine every three years. covid-19 is at least three times as deadly as ordinary influenza. it became milder so we could more or less forget about it. if we do reach a true herd immunity then we will probably get rid of masks and go back to pretty much life as we knew it before the virus surfaced. if it continues to mutate and evade the vaccines as it is hinting at doing. it has not done that yet. if it stays as turbulent as it

is, there is the possibility that shaking hands, we are done with it. things are going to get a lot better if we get a lot of the public vaccinated. one of the problems we will be facing in a couple of months is people who were questioning the value of a vaccine. right now, everybody who wants to get vaccinated is lining up. that is not 100% of the population. we are going to need probably 75% inoculation. either vaccinated or naturally infected and therefore having some immunity. there may be a reasonable chance that we may require a higher percent. a city of more than 2 million

people in brazil, 76% of the population was infected with an earlier variant of the virus. that did reach a level of herd immunity. the infections dropped way off. the variant that emerged in brazil invaded that natural protection. things in that city are starting to surge again. it is not a good time. it is not impossible to handle. it does mean vaccines are very important. caller: thank you for taking my call. my mother had the virus when she was a young girl and lost all of her hair.

you mentioned in your book about president wilson having a stroke . you related this to his having the flu. are there any other illnesses that you think are related later in life to people who had these viruses? thank you. guest: wilson had influenza during the peace talks in 1918. you are hearing one of the most common side effects is your logical problems -- urological problems. you have comprehensive studies of the pandemic after. it is second only to pulmonary were urological complications. it affected wilson during the

peace conference. i think it affected the outcome of that peace conference. obviously that ended up setting the stage for world war ii. there were a lot of cardiovascular complications in 1918. just as there are today. the 1918 virus, unlike ordinary influenza but very much like covid seemed to affect every ordinance. whether that was because the virus itself invaded those organs, that is not clear. it is not entirely clear. it was very common and still is,

there is strong linkage between influenza and cardiovascular events. in 1919 the cincinnati health department inspected a little over 7000 people who had influenza the year before. many of them had heart problems, that is without modern scans, things like that. there was linkages to strokes. that was fairly common in 1918. it is common even today. there is a linkage today with the influenza virus. as with the covid-19, of course. host: our conversation sparking

a lot of family memories. here is mary on twitter saying the 1918 flu has long echoes in atlanta. our member listening to my grandmother and her friends talk about it. those stories terrified me. i always wondered what it would be like to live through something like that. mark in tucson, arizona is next, good morning. caller: good morning and thanks for this program. i really appreciate it. the book is absolutely fascinating and rich. it doesn't just cover the influenza it covers the modern medicine. thank you for all the research. that kind of brings up my question as far as the research goes. seems like there is very little information out there about the 1918 pandemic.

must have spent a lot of time in a library in old newspapers or something. doesn't seem like there is very much on it. seems a was pushed aside or ignored. they were chasing the wrong rabbit. they thought it was a bacteria. when did they figure out, what year did they figure out it was a virus? thank you. guest: that is a lot at first. thank you for your comment about the book. a couple of things. you didn't get really anything from newspapers in 1918 because of the war. there was fake news in 1918. there is not today.

it was fake because they were printing what the government wanted people to read. at the beginning, because we were at war, the government wanted to keep morale up. they passed laws when newspaper -- one newspaper in wisconsin tried to print the truth about the pandemic, they were threatened with prosecution. a congressman was sentenced to more than 10 years in prison for violating the sedition act. these things were not a good source for information. i spent a lot of time reading lab notes from scientists and red cross archives, things like that. when they figured out the virus, that was isolated in 1933.

in 1925 they defined what a virus was. as i said earlier, they were these really small entities. i didn't know if these were just -- they didn't know if these were just tiny bacteria or a virus. bacteria is alive. a virus is not alive. it could only reproduce by invading another cell and taking over its machinery. having that cell make copies of itself. it is a piece of information that creates almost like a chemical reaction when it goes into a cell. that is the big difference. they could not grow it in 1918. they only know how to grow bacteria. you need a cell, you need something alive for it to grow, a virus.

they were trying to provide nutrients and they could not culture the virus. in 1933 it was isolated. host: about 10 minutes left this morning with john berry. he has joined us before on "washington journal." with us for about 10 more minutes. this is sheila in west virginia. caller: another question. all of this back to being what is happening today. why did they blame it on the person? we know that is not right. guest: i'm not sure what the question is about. host: could you ask your

question again please? caller: we are going back through all of these viruses. at the beginning when biden got into office he was talking about community because we are so divided. now there is unity but it is like revenge. you don't even have to have an impeachment. host: the topic is political unity. guest: i would say one thing. there are countries -- the united states has been badly compared to countries around the world in handling the virus. places like taiwan, south korea,

japan have done incredibly well. people think that is a different culture. they are asian countries and we would not accept that in the united states. i would say look at australia. australia is very much a western country. even cowboy culture. australia has 909 deaths today. their population is about 25 million. about 1/13 of the united states. western country, individualistic, if you were judged for population, that would be the equivalent of fewer than 13,000 deaths in the united states. we have 440,000 deaths.

it is the same virus, they have the same tools that we have. they have the equivalent of fewer than 13,000 deaths. we have 440,000 deaths. there is only one difference. that is leadership. that is a stone cold facts. if you want to interpret that is political, go ahead and do so. that is a fact. i don't need to be overly passionate. the reality is there are many americans dead who should be alive if we had handled this pandemic better. host: you talk about the tools available. a new tool coming online, a fact asking -- fact that -- fast acting covid-19 test. the senior advisor saying the white house announced this

effort. here's what he had to say yesterday. >> i want to start with an exciting announcement. the department of defense made an announcement today of what will be the country's first over-the-counter out home -- at home covid test. it is made by a company called ellume. it is on a platform that was developed in the initiative. these are over-the-counter test kits that could detect covid with 95% accuracy within 15 minutes. they could be used if you feel symptoms of covid-19 and also for screening for people without symptoms so they could safely go to work, school, and events. they are perfect for people ages two and older. the test is performed in what is

called a mid nasal swab. it is less evasive then the swab people may have seen on the news. after you take the swab, you put the sample into a digital analyzer which will send the results to your smartphone in about 15 minutes. making easier to use test available to every american is a high priority with obvious benefits. you loom --they will send 100,000 test kits through july. that is good but obviously not where we will need to be. host: on the announcement yesterday and at home testing? guest: that is very important. it is a tool that people have been looking for since this pandemic started.

even though it is not perfect, it is extremely useful. controlling cases, if you test yourself and find that you are positive, stay home. call your contacts, let them test themselves. that is the kind of thing that in combination with the vaccine could make us much safer and get us back to normal. obviously they said 100,000 a month. production, it will be a long time before that is useful. i imagine they will be ramping that up. we will get a lot more of those things out there. that is a very important tool.

it is great news. i know people have been working on things like that for a long time. it is not the first test that has been developed but it is rapid. host: katie in california, thanks for waiting. caller: our french teacher when i grew up in new orleans said i would open up the window and i had no idea -- i since learned that was a saying they had during the pandemic that we learned about. i was wondering, if there's any truth to the fact that this recent pandemic was engineered in a laboratory, perhaps with function research. would that make the virus potentially more lethal because

they say that in nature it is against a virus's best interest to go and kill everyone in the population. guest: first, there is no evidence of any kind, anywhere that this is an engineered virus. no one except the conspiracy theory that it was engineered. the two lane football coach i have been exchanging emails with , there is a good scientist who helped track down the original sars and demonstrated pretty convincingly that this virus is natural. it is theoretically possible, extraordinary, unlikely, no evidence supported. it is almost impossible.

the other idea that it may be escaped in a laboratory accident from a lab. you can't prove that this did not happen. it is very unlikely. they have pretty good scientists over there. the idea that this was engineered makes no sense. as viruses go, as much of a problem as this has caused. if someone were trying to engineer a deadly virus, we would have millions dead. i said at the beginning of the 1918 influenza virus, still be equivalent today adjusting for population of 220 5,000,000-450,000,000 people. the worst projections for covid-19 don't begin to talk about a death toll worldwide like that.

if someone engineered a bioterrorism weapon, it would be a lot more lethal than this. it would be something like smallpox which killed about one third of the population. the influenza virus that surfaced in 1997 and more recently than 2009, those two viruses in the last 15-20 years impacted 2500 people and killed 1500 of them. a lot more deadly than covid-19. if someone were actually forging a bioterrorism weapon you would see a death toll something like that. host: in michigan, this is bonnie, good morning. caller: good morning. i want to start by saying i am a nurse. i am interested in virology.

a friend i know recommended your book to me. she is an immunologist. i am still reading it. i am processing so much of the information. one thing that stuck with me in your book is the section where you are talking about leading up to the institution of hopkins. in 1876, what a crucial year that was. there was an issue with the election being reversed, a lot had to do with division over the south wanted to secede and it was science denying. that was one of the main tenants, that it would be based on science and religion would not be in it.

how far have we come since 1876 after watching what is happening in this country this year? not that far. i have recommended your book to so many i work with. i have recommended your book to so many people. it is a good read at so many levels. thank you for taking my call. guest: howard runs the center for the history of medicine. he is on a tremendous amount of influenza research. he did good studies that helped lead to the nonpharmaceutical interventions, what do you do when you do not have drugs that we use today? in the bush administration, when

bush started the pandemic preparations, we would attend meetings together to figure out what to do to mitigate a pandemic in the absence of therapeutic drugs or a vaccine. hello, if he is watching. host: akron, ohio. caller: thank you for taking my call. the lady in front of me asked about it, i want to know if the coronavirus has always been around and it somehow started affecting people. from the past, the same thing. did people study viruses back then as they study them now?

i believe they tried -- if they add something to it or take something away from it. i want to say something about -- you think our leadership is why the virus affected us the way it did or maybe all humans are different and it affects different races differently. every but -- everything doesn't affect everybody the same way. guest: a couple of things. i do think -- australia, racially, is primarily caucasian. we are a primarily caucasian country, but we have great diversity of races.

asia, the japanese, chinese -- they have all handled this virus much better than the united states has. a lot of african countries have handled it much better than the united states. it is a function of leadership. australia, even more than canada in terms of culture, may be more like the united states than any other country in the world. canada has handled this much better than the united states. it is leadership. in terms of the other part of the question, the viruses -- there are a lot of viruses out there that infect not just animals, but plants. there are no plant viruses that i know of that have jumped

species to humans. there are a lot of animal viruses that have jumped species to humans. influenza, the natural reservoir is birds. they jump from birds to humans. the natural reservoir for coronaviruses tend to be bats. it is a lot easier to jump from one mammal to another than it is from a bird to a mammal. whether it is hiv, which came from an animal reservoir, that is the threat we are facing, not only with the coronavirus, but going forward. there will be other pandemics.

the expectation before this had been we would face in influenza pandemic. that seemed like the biggest threat and is still a threat. there are two influenza viruses from birds in the last 15 to 20 years, killed 1500. if they require the ability -- if they acquire the ability to transmit person-to-person, we would be in trouble. there are many coronaviruses out there. they have the ability to affect humans with or without mutations. it is an ongoing threat. it is something the world has not invested in adequately to prepare for. both in terms of basic research and public health infrastructure

, as we are discovering this year. host: the book is "the great influenza: the story of the greatest pandemic in history."

post" now. david: good morning, everyone. today's guest is one of the most familiar faces in the fight against covid 19, dr. anthony fauci. thanks for joining us. welcome. dr. fauci: thank you. good to be with you. david: every time we think