to can't signal me any other way than a video screen that they have an urgent question. it look 7 it looks like we are fine. the hearing is adjourned. thanks. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2021] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] >> c-span your unfiltered view of government. funded by these television companies and more including charter communications. >> broadband is a force empowerment. that's why charter invested billions, upgrading technology, empowering opportunity in communities big and small. charter is connecteding us. >> charter communications supports c-span as a public service. along with these other television providers. giving you a front row seat to democratcy. >> coming up today on c-span, a hearing on renewable energy development on public land. watch live at 1:00 p.m. eastern. l

continues. host: never too early to talk about the next election. for a spotlight on 2022, we are joined by nathan gonzales. publisher of the race reading group inside elections at elections analyst with roll call newspaper. one of your more recent pieces, the headline, "republicans should disband if they do not win back the house in 2022." guest: we are going big on a monday morning. let's start off with the math. republicans are very close to getting house majority. they need a net gain of five seats. when you look at key factors, they are well-positioned at this stage. looking back at history, the president part party has lost an average of 30 seats in the last 25 midterm elections. republicans just need five.

when you add the extra layer of redistricting, every state except for the six at-large states will redraw lines, republicans are drawing more districts than democrats. they are in control of more states, and they could gain more seats from redistricting alone. five seats, republicans have a lot of room for error. i think that is why they are not only confident they will win the majority, but it impacts how they legislate over the next year and a half because i do not think they feel the need to compromise or give in because they can smell the majority. if we just hold the line, we will have more power. host: you mentioned a 30 seat loss for the president part party. when was the last time a president's party did well in the midterm and why? guest: the last two recent

instances where they didn't lose were 1998 and 2002. 2002, george w. bush, mainly there was a rally around the flag effect from september 11. that helped republicans buck the midterm trend in the house. 1998, bill clinton, republicans overreached in their pursuit of impeaching president clinton and that was not popular with voters. those are the instances where -- i would say democrats, how could they buck the trend into -- the trend in 2022, we are coming out of a pandemic. hopefully our country is healthy economically, physically and socially. if voters have a sense that the

country is headed in the right direction, that might take some of the typical angst we see in midterms out of the equation. the reason midterm elections are often poor for the president is because if voters do not like the direction of the country, they can't vote against the president so they often take it out on candidates from his party. host: what is the early house line? are you making a prediction? guest: no. we do not have lines yet. we do not have actual congressional lines yet. redistricting has been delays due to delays in data from the census bureau and we do not have finalized the lines. we are not going to have them until later this year. the census bureau released a portion of the data, which states will gain or lose districts, but they have to drop the more grand role -- granule

level data so they can actually draw the lines and that takes a while. drawing lines, improving, court challenges, it is a whole process. i am more comfortable with looking at districts and candidates who are running before making those final early productions -- predictions. host: we don't have to worry about lines in the senate. take us through the senate battlefield. how many seats are in play? guest: the senate majority is in play. republicans need a net gain of 1-c. we have a 50-50 senate right now, we have identified eight battleground states right now. at this stage we are calling them battleground and later we will shift to a tossup category. each side looks like they have four vulnerable states. republicans, we are looking at the open seat in pennsylvania

where pat toomey is not running fairly -- not running for reelection. north carolina, richard burr not running. wisconsin, ron johnson has not decided, but that is going to be a battleground either way. florida, marco rubio. florida i would not call a swing state anymore. republicans have won key races, but it has always been close. when you flip to the other side and the democratic states, we are watching eurozone or, georgia, they just won special elections last cycle to fill the remainder of those terms. now this is for a full term. the last two states we are watching on the democratic side are nevada with catherine cortez masto and new hampshire with maggie hassan. that is a key state, not only

because new hampshire goes with the national trend but we are waiting for chris sununu to decide if he is going to run. that might be the premier senate race in the cycle. host: nathan gonzales, if any of those races strike your fancy give us a call. we will talk about it. we want to hear your questions or comments. it is an early spotlight on 2022, but never too early to talk the next relation. -- the next election. democrats (202) 748-8000. republicans (202) 748-8001. independentw (202) 748-8002. you are talking about the republican senate committee on mark kelly in arizona to the tune of releasing an ad early in the cycle. this data -- this ad up recently. [video clip] >> markel he has learned to

speak politician, washington politician on immigration. >> it is a humanitarian crisis. >> the crisis on our southern border is a crisis mark kelly helped create. kelly voted to end border wall construction, and allow sanctuary cities. send stimulus checks to illegal immigrants. when joe biden ended the emergency cancellation on border security, mark kelly was silent. the border is a disaster, and what does mark kelly say? >> it is a humanitarian crisis. >> he says one thing in arizona and to opposite in washington. host: nathan gonzales on mark kelly, the immigration issue. what is the point of releasing an ad 500 days before election?

host: to give your viewers a sneak peek, if you are watching a video like that, longer than 30 seconds, probably not an ad that is on television. it is probably a web video. i do not this -- i do not believe this had the normal disclaimer of who paid for it. that does not mean it is not irrelevant. that is telling us where republicans want to go. when he ran two years ago, he got to run as a political outsider of sorts and he did not have votes in either congress, senate, or state legislature that republicans could use against him. when we get to 2022, he is going to have a voting record and i think they are anxious to not only highlight votes that are out of step, but paint him as a politician and not an astronaut.

that is a preview of what we are going to see. host: to be fair, to pay nash to play ads from both sides -- to play ads from both sides, this is a go at endorsing -- [video clip] >> q is a patriot. >> marjorie taylor greene expressed support for executing members of congress. >> the only way you get your freedom back is with blood. >> get ready to boot marjorie taylor greene out of congress. she says she will tour the country, raising money with an alleged sex trafficker. the company you keep. if she has not going to do the job in congress, we know someone who will. someone who knows honor and service.

-- endorses marcus flowers for congress. he knows the danger radical extremism does to a country. he saw it in iraq and he is not going to let it take root here. join us in this fight. let's send a true patriot to congress. host: there's another one of those. guest: those are web videos, not ads. the first word that comes to mind is fundraising. we have to remember that con -- the context of taylor green's district. now, she sits in a northwest georgia district that former president trump received 75% of the vote. somebody who has been doing this for a while, democrats are very unlikely to win this race no matter what the circumstances are specific to her. her district could change a

little bit, but in georgia, republicans are in charge of drawing the lines. she has not going to go from a 75% trump district to a 50%-50%. i think this is going to try to raise money for flowers. i am interested in how -- if democrats are going to try to elevate her status even more to raise money for districts and races over the country. in 2020 two, what happened in 2020, democrats defeated former president trump. the unifying mission of the democratic party was to defeat trump. he was driving turnout for democrats. now that he is no longer in the oval office and will not be on the ballot, they have to find someone to make sure that the democratic base is excited.

congresswoman greene could get excited, i do -- she is not the household name that former president trump is, and she could become that galvanizing factor democrats need to make sure they're turnout does not drop. host: you have been doing this as long as i have known you. guest: this is my third redistricting cycles, so 20 years. you are a veteran at this too. host: we asked to viewers to try to give nathan an election question. before we get to phone calls, we touched on the immigration issue. that ad touched on the january 6 insurrection. also, the supreme court taking up an abortion case in the supreme court cycle. is that likely to be an election issue? guest: it looks like it. it depends on specifically the

mississippi case, i would say it depends on what the decision is. that could impact things. the timing of it -- it will probably be in june, a lot can happen in that time. the polling on abortion has been fascinating because it depends on how you asked the question in terms of where the electorate is. i have found the electorate is more nuanced in their opinions in regards to abortion and choice dan what politicians say. this mississippi case, it is widely viewed that this is a threat to roe v. wade. gallup has been asking these questions, and if you asked americans whether they want to uphold roe v. wade, a majority have said yes. consistently. but, if you ask about the timing of when they are comfortable with people having access to

abortion, in the first trimester voters will say yes, that is legal, but the second and third trimesters, there are the less than a majority. the mississippi case i believe is 15 weeks would ban abortion with limited exceptions, so both sides, you can pick and choose what numbers you want to present your case. in the context of the midterms, this could also be key for republicans, turnout on the democratic side. republicans have shown that turnout can be a struggle when former president trump is not on the ballot. republicans did the whole trump coalition to turnout and maybe this is an issue to make sure conservatives are energized when he is not as prominent. host: this is greg in indianapolis. democrat, good morning. caller: yes.

i notice you said that you have been doing this for 20 years. so basically, your green? [laughter] guest: i've got plenty of wear on the tires to go. caller: i am interested to know if there has ever been this nasty -- if it has ever been this nasty in your your ears? -- in your years? i recall the george wallace era and stuff like that, but i do not recall it being one sided. just, so -- no bipartisanship at all. i would like to know what you think. the little bit that you do know. host: thanks. guest: i am looking forward to visiting family in indiana this summer. two things come to mind.

we have had partisanship for the entirety of our country. we have had disagreements, this is nothing new. we tend to forget some terrible times we have had sun what is happening right now but to me one thing that is different, one thing that strikes me right now that could have also happened in the past, not only do we not disagree with each other -- we can't agree with each other, each side does not view the other side as equals. the other side is some human -- subhuman. when you view the other side as so terribly, you see things -- i think the tone of the conversation and the arguments are different. you make choices that are different because you do not value the other side.

not only do you value -- do you not value their opinions, you don't value them as a person and that is a scary place. it is easy for us to blame politicians for the lack of bipartisanship, both from an electoral perspective i do not think voters are rewarding bipartisanship. usually when we see candidates or members on the hill who do compromise, they are often threatened or punished by voters of their own party, particularly in a primary, who say no, we want a real conservative or a real progressive. we can talk about who is to blame in this, but it is not just the politicians. we have a delighted, bitter congress that reflects who we are is the country. we can't just blame politicians. we've got to do soul-searching. host: is this going to be an

active primary season? guest: i think it is delayed, particularly on the house side because of a lack of districts. before they put their lives and jobs on hold, their families, put everything aside, i think they will want to know if they are going to run. we will see high-profile challenges to congresswoman cheney. she has more than a handful of people running against her. on the senate side, we are seeing a crowded primary in north carolina on the republican side. there will be a primary on the democrat side as well. florida democrats are going to have an interesting competitive primary between val demings and stephanie murphy. there are primaries developing, but the house calendar is delayed. those lines are not going to be done anytime soon. host: on the issues driving 2022

, this is rick in california. he says, defund the police and crime will motivate the right to the polls. guest: there is going to be an aspect of that. rick has some foresight there. there was one special election we were watching in new mexico's first district. this is an albuquerque district, deb haaland was appointed to be secretary of the interior by president biden, so we are watching this special election. republicans nominees are trying to make ryan the focal point of the race. it is interesting because this is a democratic district. biden defeated trump by 23 points. we have a baseline metric where democrats have about a 17 point

advantage. democrats have the advantage in this race, but we are looking at the margins. are republicans able to move the conversation, move the electorate significantly with an issue like this? i expect republicans to be talking about crime and defunding the police because that is where the things helped them over perform in 2020. i do not think i was the only one who thought democrats could have expanded their majority, turns out republicans had a net in of 12 states. part of that is because of republicans using that message effectively. host: insideelections.com, plenty of free content, but subscriptions are available. nathan gonzalez, taking your phone calls and -- lake city, tennessee. republican. caller: these pollsters that

call 1200 people and anybody in their right mind does not answer a phone call from somebody they don't know, to tell all 350 million americans what we believe, i have never been asked about abortion. i am against it. especially this overturning biden has done enough trump stopping the use of aborted babies for experiments that they are doing. that is disgusting. it reminds me of nazi germany. george soros made the comment that they are in chaos. when you look at the cities where shootings have occurred, all controlled by democrats. our border is chaos. biden flew four plain fools -- airplane full of immigrants into chattanooga.

host: i didn't hear about that. guest: her skepticism on polling, she's not the only one who feels that way. there has been a level of soul-searching about the effectiveness of paul's, hand how we use polls that is healthy and we should be doing that. for years, we hear people like that calle, the goal is not to call everyone but to call people who are like each individual. with low response rates where fewer people are calling -- taking up the phone or answering an email, are they similar to their neighbor or their coworker? are we getting a good sample of the electorate, or are there things pollsters are going to wrestle with?

host: you can pick up the phone and call asked. (202) 748-8000 free democrats. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. independents, (202) 748-8002. we've got about half an hour left with nathan, what races do you want to talk about? we can even go into 2024. caller: i am puzzled how nathan has come to the conclusion that voters only come out when trump is on the ballot when he has only been on the ballot since 2016 and also the misinformation. the previous collar is believing a lot of things that are out there. why don't people investigate things further instead of just listening to a politician who is going to say practically anything? this is ridiculous. how do republicans get -- isn't there another way? guest: sure.

one of the key elections that stands out was 2018 when president trump was not on the ballot. he won in 2016, but 2018, democrats were more energized and turned out in greater numbers because they were shocked trump won and wanted to send a message. the full trump coalition, i don't think the full trump coalition came out in 2018 which is why democrats did so well in the house. republicans did ok on the senate but it was largely because of the states. the losses were not as bad as they could have. 2020, trump possibility to bring out all forms and all aspects of the party were key and that is why the race was closer than what many expected. republicans can win, and actually in 2022, we started the

show by talking about how republicans are in good position to take the house, they are close in the senate. i just do not know. we have wrestle completely with the fact that the trump coalition is not just republicans. there are parts of the trump coalition that do not like republicans just like they don't like democrats. they think mitch mcconnell land the republicans in washington are part of the swamp and that all democrats are corrupt. if trump is not on the ballot having them a reason to turn out, why would they vote for these republicans? it is possible for them to do that based on other issues that are important. i just do not think it is a guarantee. host: from trump to biden, there was criticism in 2010 of obama not doing more to help save house seats in the midterm.

where does president biden appear to be? guest: president biden right now , the key thing he can do right now is try to do a good job. try to keep his job approval rating, keep it in good shape so voters do not have anger, resentment toward this fattest -- or dissatisfaction. you are right, president obama and the democrat and -- the democrats went through this in 2008, obama won, 2010, he was not on the ballot in democratic turnout suffered. democrats got clobbered. 2014, republicans have a great cycle as the full obama coalition did not turn out in the same numbers. this is not a new dynamic to former president trump, this as something we have seen particularly when the party becomes primarily, or at the top

, a following of a person rather than just a set of specific issues or an ideology. host: we touched on that race in arizona, let's head to phoenix. this is linda, it democrat. caller: i was calling because he said that it was showing on the --? no, that ad was showing local in phoenix all the time. i was surprised to hear that other cities are not getting political ads. what is going on in arizona is really different. between everything they can to change the votes, they are back at it trying to figure out how to change the votes. they are shocked that arizona went democrat which did not shock the people who live here.

it is definitely changing. [indiscernible] anyway, that is my comment. guest: make you for bringing that up. there probably could be a version of it without the actual legal disclaimer, but you are there and we should listen to what you are saying. what is striking is arizona, you're right, states are changing and arizona is one of them. with the growth in the suburban areas, voters that have a college degree, which are -- which we are seeing increasingly , one of the key tellers is that voters with college degrees tend to vote democrat, those without vote republican. there are still republicans want

to relitigate what happened and challenge the official certified results. the republican governor and republican officials who helped oversee the process have been saying, this is what happened. but other republicans are trying to sow seeds of doubt and i do not know how productive that will be. it may be productive for republicans to keep the base energized by the voters in the middle are not excited to see this relitigation go forever. host: from that ad if we talked about to the other one, mlb on twitter saying both -- is one of the most effective groups i have seen for campaign ads supporting their candidate. who would you recommend to keep an eye on when it comes to outside groups spending on 2022?

guest: everyone but you and me has a normal job. my answer was going to be to try to get as many pieces as possible and not focus on any single group. i think campaigns are complex organisms. there's not any one issue or thing that is usually driving them. it is going to depend on the race or the district. that will be in districts where they have a candidate they feel they can endorse, but not in every district, so it will be an outside collection of figures. host: you think this is a normal job? guest: i do not think we are necessarily normal to most americans. caller: i would like to ask your guests about new york's 22nd congressional district.

-- won after all long count, a little over a hundred roads, defeating anthony brindisi. i am wondering if he had any insights into the upcoming election in 2022. guest: great question. one of the last districts to be called, to be finalized, congresswoman tenney who lost and came back, i think she was aided by former president trump's performance in the district. trump getting more districts -- more votes in that district. what we are watching in new york's redistricting. new york lost a district, but other viewers might not know that new york lost a district in apportionment. the redistricting process is convoluted.

there is a coalition but essentially democrats in the legislature can basically do what they want. we are watching to see what that looks like and how much the 22nd district changes and that will impact the congresswoman's reelection chances. one scenario is that further into western new york, the 23rd district with tom reed who announce he is not running, his district could then be dissolved into some neighboring districts. the 22nd could change as well and i would expect, unless republicans -- unless the political environment shifts against republicans for her district changes, i think congresswoman tenney will start the cycle as a favorite to win another term. host: you touched on the upcoming special election in new mexico to replace deb haaland.

with all of these districts changing, what is the point of playing in a special election before we eventually get to the actual election in november of 2022? guest: right now, both parties need every seat they can get. speaker pelosi can only afford a couple to a handful of defectors because the majority is so narrow. the benefit for republicans taking over a seat like this in right now only holding it for a year and a half is that they have one more vote to stop democrats from doing what they want to do. another point is that special elections can become larger than

life. they can become rallying points. i can almost guarantee that if republicans narrowly lose this race in a district biden one, they will be shouting from the hilltops that a tsunami is coming and try to use it to recruit other candidates and get them into districts that might look very democratic on paper but say, look how close we came here. get into this race over here. parties try to use special election outcomes to gain momentum for the broader battleground in the general election. guest: an interesting article. if you want to read more about redistricting cycles, rolecalled outcome. roberto in houston, texas. caller: i am truly independent. concerning hispanic voters, we

don't vote as a block. i think i have a unifying issue and that is, am i still on? ok. abortion. in texas, the state legislature has a six-week window in which a woman can abort because, this is what gets my attention, it is called a human heartbeat bill. if there is a human heartbeat at six-week, i am against abortion. your opinion please. guest: on -- just looking at the national polling, going back a little bit, at six weeks, a majority of americans believe that is within the window where they are comfortable with access to abortion. texas, those -- those are national numbers and those numbers can be different in

texas. i have not seen polling specifically broken down that way with regard to texas. some of this legislation, there are multiple motivations to it. it could be because republicans in particular believe this is something that has to be done. that this is a life issue. another motivation could be to try to get it to the supreme court to get as many cases like this to the supreme court in order to make -- so that the court with some newly appointed associate justices from former president trump to get a more favorable ruling with regard to roe v. wade so i think there are multiple motivations. hispanic voters do not vote as a block. one of the reasons why former president trump did better in 2020 than expectations is because he did better with hispanic voters. part of it, also texas.

what i am watching specifically is how much of that growth with hispanic voters was specific to trump, or was it to the party in general? this goes back to what we were talking about earlier, once trump is not on the ballot, can republicans maintain those numbers with hispanic voters in 2020? can they keep that momentum? we are not going to know until we get closer to the election. host: how many people does it take to keep an eye on every house and senate race? guest: we are a lean, mean fighting machine. my colleague, who i am sure will be on washington journal in the future, and other contributors. follow jacob re-tasking on twitter. also bradley washer,

particularly on election night crunching data for us. they are going to be taking our jobs before too long. host: [laughter] ed is in houston, texas. democrat. good morning. caller:. -- caller: from san antonio to el paso, that has been competitive for 20 years. i know a republican was elected, and solace? is he -- gonzales? who are the democrats putting up? guest: we have yet to see. we are waiting to see what republicans do with the districts in texas. it's one of the four key states we are watching where

republicans are in charge and we will see what that district ends up looking like. i expect it to be competitive. it has been one of the most competitive districts for 10 years running now, but we have to wait and see what the field looks like. also, the factor with hispanic voters, was it something specifically trump was able to do, or can republicans to it? or, can democrats gain ground back there lost in 2020? host: this is kathleen, independent. caller: the reason i am calling is i heard that gentlemen say how republicans and democrats, everybody is subhuman. that is true. one suggestion, i watch cnn and fox and i read papers and

outlook all over the place so i could get to some truth. you cannot sit there and watch one channel and hear everything because i have watched cnn and fox and i thought i was watching -- i thought i was in two different countries. voters have an obligation to get -- i do not know if you agree. guest: yes, yes. [laughter] i agree with you to the extent that people, in the course and rhythm of their jobs and families, to diversify your information intake i think is valuable. i agree with you that if you only watch one channel or another you are going to get just an entirely different view of america. i know that seems -- but it is striking.

it is not just have some bd outlets cover issues, it is that they cover different issues and focus on different parts of what is going on in the country. i would take that 26 seconds or however long you summarize that and encourage people that if you can diversify where you get your information, that will help. host: fox news headline, "haley headed to iowa in june, sparking 2024 speculations." should we talk about a gop primary? guest: we can. the first question is whether former president trump is running. i think there is a possibility he does run. if he does, there will not be much of our primary. if he runs, he is still the most popular person in the republican party.

by now, if there were a republican primary, he would annihilate anyone who runs against him. a lot of people we were talking about would simply not run. if he does not run, the field is going to be wide open. there will be 20 or 30 candidates including haley, and everybody is going to say they are heir apparent. i do not know how it is going to play out. there are a lot of candidates that are going to be vying to lead the republican party if trump does not want to. host: tom cotton going to iowa. mike pompeo was there last month. who am i missing? guest: specifically iowa, i have not checked the travel logs. we can't forget, mike pence is

probably gonna run again. there will probably be outsiders who think they can capture the outsider mantle that the president was able to ride in on, but it is going to be crazy. host: 10 or 15 minutes left with nathan gonzalez to talk about the races. what do you want to talk about? inside elections -- this is hilton in north carolina. an independent. caller: good morning. guest: good morning. caller: good morning. host: what is your comment? caller: i was listening about the news, i don't look at the news on both -- i look at what is going on in the country. with everything going up jobs

wise, higher taxes, higher food, the work demand is having a hard time to make a living. therefore it is a mess. host: how do you find out what is going on? where do you go to find out? caller: i go to the grocery store. i go get gas, there is none. you are sitting online for 20 minutes, it is a shame shutting off the pipeline. it's ridiculous. it's not for the working-class people. host: stansberry, north carolina. guest: hilton is not alone in what he is seeing and what he is feeling. the questions in my mind are, what does the country look like a year from now when we are getting closer to the 2022 elections?

the state of the economy? how are people feeling about the direction of the country? that is going to drive voters in the middle. let's face it, the majority -- i will say even most americans have probably already decided whether they will support a democrat or republican and key congressional races but there are voters in the middle that are still persuadable and i think a lot of that persuasion will come from what is the current state of our country. then it will be a drop performance review on democrats who control the white house and the house and the senate. voters are going to give them that review in november of 2022. host: buie, maryland. a democrat. good morning. >> -- caller: good morning, america. i think the republicans on

capitol hill are putting their eggs in one basket -- are putting their eggs in trump's basket. people are betting against democracy. is that what you are seeing? also, the governor of florida is holding >> we are going to leave the last few minutes of this discussion to take your life to a hearing on developing renewable energy in public lands . >> the subcommittee's meeting today to hear testimony on efforts to expand clean energy on public land and hr 3326, the public lands renewable energy development act of 2021, introduced by representative levin. under committee rules for aft, any oral opening statements at hearings will be limited to the chair and the ranking member.