>> joining us to talk about the retail picture black friday is lauren thomas with cnbc. ms. thomas, thank you for joining us on this day. busy one for you, i am sure. >> thank you for having me. >> let's go back to a story you posted yesterday on how the people that are going to do the store in the shopping them a how they are approaching this day.

characterized that story and what it means for the retail picture. >> sure. i think you are very to a story we wrote that looks at how the shopping season is so different than holidays past. expectations across the board are z. -- rosy. stage with the national retail federation calling for sales to be up between eight and a half to 10 and a half percent year-over-year kid that would be a record increase. expectations are high and there is a lot of optimism. within that, there are a number of factors that i know we want to dive into that are public eating the picture, making it more murky. when all is said and done, it could look a lot different than what we thought going into the holidays. one of those being the supply chain issues, which a lot of us have heard about and has made its way into the mainstream media because they are so

significant. that is one thing retailers are working through. you have inflation, rising prices. that means some people cannot participate in holiday shopping when they might have been able to in years past because they are starting to see sticker shock. i know we can certainly dive into a number of those factors. companies are very optimistic. macy's was on cnbc and it look like it was busy. we are seeing people turn out for stores this black friday. last year it was not an option when we were in the thick of covid. host: we are showing the folks the headline from yesterday saying the record numbers of americans saying they weren't going to be buying. who are those americans? guest: i would love to get into

that with you. it is significant. you have the national retail federation calling for this and part might be that prices are going up and inflation at play. that will mean we see higher retail growth. 11 point 5% of americans saying they will not spend a penny on holiday gifts, gift cards, food to entertain family members and loved ones. that is according to a delight survey that we keep track of at cnbc. that is the highest delight has ever seen. 11 point -- deloitte has ever seen. that is 11% saying they are sitting out. there are a number of reasons at play. i spoke with a homeless shelter in san francisco saying they are seeing demand that they have

never seen before. stimulus assistance has dried up and as a result, that has put more people out on the streets and they are seeing an uptick in demand for services. that is what we are seeing play out around the country. there is a wealth gap divide is what we got at in this story where you have some consumers that had money in their 401(k) and they benefited from the growth we have seen in the stock market year to date and they have been sucking away money, savings that they have not been spending on travel and experiences and other things during covid. they are very well off and they are to beating a lot to what we are seeing and talking about. 11 and a half percent of

americans say they can't afford to spend anything. it is an important dynamic to pay attention to and acknowledge. even though retailers say they are optimistic, there is a subset of americans contributing to that growth. host: the deloitte survey you reference, there is a line saying households that brought in within 100,000 dollars will show up $2600 apiece, up 15% from 2020. lower income groups making less than 50,000, will spend $536, a 22% decline from a year ago. guest: exactly. the numbers tell the story. you have a subset of people spending more and those pulling back. host: lauren thomas here to talk about the tell picture. if you want to ask questions, (202) 748-8002 for eastern and

central. if you work in retail and want to let us know what you think, (202) 748-8002 is the number to call. if i am a retailer, one of my main concerns not only for the supplies but for employees i will need to make sales possible. guest: the labor market. another hot topic, the holiday season, that is the super bowl for a lot of these companies and that is when they are putting out tire were temporary workers but also increasingly where houses because e-commerce sales continue to grow. this year we are seeing a tight labor market. we have been tracking the unemployment rate during the

pandemic. and a lot of folks whether changed jobs or rethought what they wanted to do and have rejoined and a lot of them are second-guessing. we see companies like macy, -- macy's, walmart, target, they're seeking retail workers for the holidays. we never really know for certain . you can see it. i know there was some indeed data on the job search site that showed inquiries for holiday retail jobs were way down this year. that speaks to the fact that if folks are seeking work in these positions.

so companies like macy's are offering perks, raising wages, trying to lure people in whatever way they can come whether it is a referral bonus, they all offer now college tuition and help with textbooks in getting back to school. we are seeing companies get creative to fill those positions. it is just not the demand we have seen in past years. host: does a vaccine mandate factor into the issues, not only if the company but the potential federal government having one as well? guest: we have seen pushback on that front. the national federation put out a letter to the government. they are trying with the vaccine mandate to hold off until after the holidays and not enforce and

make it enforceable for retail companies because it can be a controversial subject and when you are trying to attract workers and as many workers as you possibly can and you are a retailer, i don't think you suddenly want to cut off a subset of people just because you have a mandate in place. you have seen pushback from the retail industry because of the bind they are in trying to keep as much flexibility in these retail positions they are trying to fill. it is tough when you have the back-and-forth that has been going on between the white house and the national retail federation. exactly when this needs to be enforced in and fermented, you have seen other industries being put in similar positions of what

to do and when to enforce it. host: our first call is from patrick in carnegie, pennsylvania. caller: thank you for having me. when you look at the trajectory of the series of every epidemiological model, there is nothing natural about the is these mutations are not natural. i hear the rhetoric when it comes to the retail employment environment and the fact that the american people have been tolerating such low wages for so many years to counter the chinese counterparts. and then we think this is some

type of manageable issue because all of the sudden corporations have found their soul when providing some type of equity to the american people. it is almost ridiculous. host: we will leave it there and let our guest respond. guest: you see the pandemic in many ways and accelerant for things that were already in place. when you look at wages, when we were thrust into this pandemic with covid, it was and accelerant for companies to finally act and we have seen a lot of these initiatives, college tuition, wage hikes. i think that this year, a lot of that has finally spun into action.

it is a longer-term think we will be living with, but it has been the accelerant for a number of retailers to make some actions they have been pressured to do for a while or have been considering for some time. host: we will hear from nikki in little rock, arkansas who worked in retail. guest: good morning. caller: i worked in retail and it is not fair to people. minimum wage is $11 an hour and for you to have to work so long and so hard in it is just not fair to the american people. we only make $11 an hour. it makes no sense.

like amazon and all of those companies they are selling products that should be sold story. it makes no sense. rent is $700. $2200 a month just to live and $11 an hour or $15 an hour does not equal what it takes to pay bills. host: thank you very much. guest: that is probably commonly shared for many americans. that is what retailers are realizing when they hit crunch time like the holiday season. you have to raise wages.

the one thing she didn't mention, you have inflationary environment, whether it is the cost of food, fuel prices are up. the cost of apparel is up. we are seeing a lot of these categories see price hikes and some of that is being passed on to the consumer. an interesting point, we have seen walmart and target in recent weeks saying they are going to try to take on inflationary costs themselves and not raise prices on the shopper as a result. they are trying to keep prices low. you saw just last week dollar tree, you expect a lot of things will cost a dollar. but when you go in, they are raising prices to a dollar 25 be the new threshold across the

stores by early next year that should be phased in because they have seen so much pressure. inflationary pressure. we are seeing companies respond in different ways but that is a huge factor in all of this and why the minimum wage at $11 an hour is just not sustainable. host: there is a viewer of twitter saying working retail saying it is tough, angry customers with immediate gratification expectations. guest: what this viewer may be getting at is that during the pandemic, there were 70 things and different situations that the retail worker has to consider how to deal with the customer wearing a mask in the store. there was a period where it was

very murky on whether masks were required or not. we were talking in real time about whether or not they needed to put the mask requirements and i had the big thing of whether a mask mandate should be put in place. i know we have seen a lot of frustration and arguably so around the past 20 months because this is uncharted territory for them in many retail workers are waiting to hear from the manager, what is the protocol and you have customers coming in and it is a tough decision to be in. i think that is what they were getting at. host: the national retail federation said expect 58 million tomorrow and 31 million by saturday. this excludes what they will be

doing online. is it the individual shops, are the malls a factor here where are people hiding? guest: the national retail federation is expecting this weekend, black friday through cyber monday, 2 million more americans heading to stores than was the case a year ago. we are expecting travel to have an uptick. 64% of consumers according to this national retail federation survey planning to head to stores on black friday, today. an interesting dynamic and something propelling growth, number of retailers closed stores yesterday, on thanksgiving. a few years back, it started with sears chain, we saw the

trend for companies to open stores on thanksgiving day. there was this desire to spread some of the momentum. retailers found shoppers were willing to show up after thanksgiving dinner and they are eager to go shopping it was so the trend over time in over the past few years and they've taken retail sales on it this year we have a number of factors at play, one being retail and you have seen pushback from retail workers having to work those thanksgiving shifts. so target, walmart, macy's, bed bath and beyond closed stores on thanksgiving this year and target has said that will be a new precedent being forward. now we are seeing a shift away

for the starving open at least part of the day and they are trying to push the momentum onto black friday. i think today we are expecting a lot of shoppers to be out and about. we have had some guests already at malls and they are pretty busy, not as busy as they were in 2019, but a lot busier than last year. host: let's hear from ray, syracuse, new york. caller: your guest has a lot of bubbly words but between her and the content of what she is singing and the callers, it looks like everyone is starting to get it. this was the result of a very well orchestrated attack on our country and the west in general to knock out the small

businesses and hamper our economies. some things are so precious that if they go away they may never return. i am not saying that is the case here, but clearly we have been hurt deeply and no amount of optimism can change that. host: if i am a small business, how am i facing this season? guest: i am glad you brought that up. that is another seam or thing to dive into this holiday season. with this gradual shift online and especially during the pandemic, i spoke to a number of retailers that had no presence online. when you are thrust where people are not going out, what did the businesses do that have no other way to sell their goods?

you have seen some of them try to build on a presence online. a home goods owner i know based in georgia, i was talking to her and she was talking about how she built a website online just to stay afloat. that is the dynamic at play here as the larger players like amazon and walmart are succeeding in taking on a ton of market share while it is coming from somewhere and small business owners have been on the other end of the stick in many instances. it is a tough dynamic but definitely true. host: lauren thomas reports on retail issues for cnbc. for the heads of companies, what are they saying about supply chain issues and are they saying anything about the administration's efforts to resolve those issues? guest: the supply chain, we have

seen companies weathering this a bit better than others. one reported earnings just earlier in the week and they flashed the outlook for the remainder of the year due to the supply chain. gap is an apparel company. they largely sell apparel. they have factories across parts of asia, primarily vietnam. during the pandemic, we have seen parts of the world entirely shut down and new lockdowns put in place. gap was one of those businesses who had those closed overseas. at the same time, gap said it was hit with the port congestion with backlogs and companies can't get goods off of ships

into trucks and ultimately you need truck drivers to drive those trucks to warehouses, and that it becomes a labor issue. there are so many points along this domino chain that have been really hurts over the past few months. gap but there outlook for the rest of the year -- cut their outlook for the rest of the year because they do not have enough product to meet the demand. whereas walmart and target, two really big box retail chains, both had strong inventory levels when they reported earnings week ago. we saw the inventories inflated which says that they have gotten goods in stock ahead of holiday time in preparation for the holiday season, trying to secure inventory to meet shopper demand. when you see a company like

walmart or target, what i think as a reporter is their relationship is very strong and they are in a better position, going back to our small business conversation, the big-box chains have strong relationships with manufacturers and vendors overseas and if anyone is going to get goods in, they are standing in line to do so. you see in some companies weathering the situation better than others. the consensus is this is not going away overnight and it certainly will not be over by the time we get to the holiday season. the supply chain complications will linger well into 2022. host: this is from bill in snellville, georgia. good morning. caller: good morning. outside of supply chain issues

come apparel has been hit over the past two years. what is the status for american apparel? host: ok. american apparel. guest: apparel, there has been a lot of distress in that space, even leading up to the pandemic within the malls in particular, we saw a number of apparel change go bankrupt. when covid struck in march 2020, that set off another wave of bankruptcies, whether department store chains like jcpenney, lord and taylor, century 21, in a number of smaller apparel chains as well. what i hear when i speak to experts and analysts in the space is that was a bit of a shakeout that was in some ways needed to weed out some players in the industry you are left

with many apparel retailers to choose from if you are a consumer and maybe those folks have taken on more of the market share. it creates opportunities for new companies to come along and new upstart that hopefully you will see coming out of this pandemic a spirit of entrepreneurial ship . i feel like we always see that cycle within the retail industry. apparel sales, when you want to look at just demand, we have seen that come back strongly month by month. when you look at monthly retail sales data come apparel sales took up. many consumers eager to refresh their wardrobes you have seen a number of folks saying maybe they just need a new size because they have added or gained a few pounds or shed a

few pounds living at home. i know the levi's ceo spoke as the reason that their sales have performed well. people are coming in looking for new sizes of clothing and some people are just looking to totally clean out their wardrobe, ready for a fresh start after what we have lived through in the past 20 or so months. there was a lot of wreckage last year with the bankruptcies, what we have weeded out the weaker players and have been left with those who have a stronger balance sheet. host: let's hear from emma, brandywine, maryland. caller: everybody is talking about macy's and walmart. has anybody did any research on the thrift shores. i shot thrift shores and aligned to check out is in the back of the shores. that is where everybody is

shopping, at thrift stores. guest: i am glad you brought that up. we have seen thrift ink that is one category within retail that is growing and has grown exponentially so during the pandemic. whether you are someone who is shopping on a budget, that is one reason a consumer might go to a thrift store. you have also seen thriftiness and secondhand sites gaining popularity in the younger generation of consumers that this is something that is appealing to them, whether it is posh mark or thread up, these are one of the secondhand apparel sites where you can sell stuff if you are a consumer looking to offload your clothing. you can put it on one of those sites and shop that as well in turn. i think thrifting is one area

expected to perform well. you take into consideration supply chain issues, that could be another reason that compels thrifting. if goods from retailers are stuck on ships in the ocean, suddenly the idea of shopping secondhand becomes more appealing because it is ready and available. i think the secondhand economy is definitely growing and is a trend we are watching in years to come. we have the younger generations that find that appealing as well. host: we have seen stories coming out of california, so-called smash and grab crimes, is this concern for retailers overall and what does it mean for potential shoppers to those stores? guest: it is something that

companies are thinking about. it is top of mind this weekend. i spoke to nordstrom about it last week. there was an incident, and l.a. where their store was broken into and a number of others. they are stepping up security and taking other precautionary measures to prepare for that and to be prepared this weekend. best buy spoke to this as well earlier in the week, because they have been a victim of it. organized retail crime is something we see year after year in the industry and companies take a hit and that plays into their expectations. unfortunately that goes on but there has been an uptick in that more recently. and as ceo spoke to it impacting employees and she is fearful it could become something that pushes workers away.

it goes back to what we are seeing that the retail workers on the front line have to deal with and this is becoming more and more so another one of those. so she said the company is trying to take preventative measures and step up security and implement training or talk to workers about this and how they can work through situations when thefts come into stores and try to steal electronics and other goods. i know it is top of mind for retail executives during the holiday season because we have seen, for whatever reason, an uptick in that in recent weeks. host: this is going to be a busy weekend for you. when are you going to see the first set of numbers as far as the retail holiday season? guest: we do have a few numbers already available to us.

there were statistics that came in overnight that said $5.4 billion, their projection for what was spent online yesterday on thanksgiving day. just goes to show that people are still shopping, with the stores being close, a number of retailers have opted to close stores on thanksgiving more of those dollars are being spent online. over the weekend, we will start to get early readings on black friday traffic numbers, which i know work always -- i know we are always eager to look at. one thing i want to mention, it is a dynamic, watching cnbc in the background, as we speak, i know the stock market is reacting to this news about a potential new variant of the coronavirus and just what that

could look like. that has called into question, will that make shoppers more fearful too, if they see this. we know very little at this point in time about what this variant could look like. it is another factor at play and as consumers are watching, something they will be seeing on the television screen as well. a lot to consider. maybe we see some dollars that would have been spent in stores may shifting online. host: lauren thomas reports on retail for cnbc. thank you for your time. best of holiday >> c-span is your unfiltered view of government. we are funded by these television companies and more, including mediacom. >> the world changed in an

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