>> "washington journal" continues. host: we are now nine months from election day 2022. it is a good day to be joined by josh kraushaar. the latest column you have for against the brain, waive watch is the headline, a look at the political potential upsets in

the 2022 midterms. explain what a wave election is and how we know when one will hit. caller: we have had a lot of wave elections in the last 10 to 15 years because voters have been dissatisfied with whatever party has been in charge. wave elections are a rejection of the governing party for the out party or the party not in power takes control of congress were picks up a lot of seats in the house and senate. it has been the reality that since 2006 we have seen a lot of wave elections, whether it was trump being rejected in 2018 or democrats taking control of the house, or republicans in 2010 and 2014 capitalizing on anger against former president obama. part of the reason we are seeing so many wave elections is the public does not like government, they do not trust either government and the power goes from party to party in cycle after cycle.

guest: is a red wave -- host: is a red wave a certainty in november and you have any sense how much that wave would wash democratic seats away in the house and senate? guest: nothing is ever a certainty and we are 10 months or so away from the election. the signals are not looking good for democrats. the president's job approval ratings is at dangerous levels, blow 40's and most polls. you have an intensity gap that should be alarming for the biden administration in which even those voters who support him do not support him intensely, not to the same extent they supported president obama or president trump. they had stronger support from their own base of the party. biden does not command that same degree of loyalty. you look at the smoke signals on the economy. good economic reports. inflation is a real concern for voters. the state of the pandemic is a real concern.

the biden administration has not shown a lot of competence on a lot of fronts. the covid situation is a good example. you see democratic governors and blue states like new jersey and connecticut taking a more leading role in trying to get schools back to normal and setting up plans to have kids take their masks off in schools. you're not seeing the white house lead on an area where they should be benefiting politically with omicron starting to fade away across most of the country. the republicans have their own issues. the party that is divided has a trump role-playing to big factor in some of the primaries, but fundamentally it looks like a tough environment for the democratic party. host: what would be a realistic scenario you can imagine for democrats holding the house and senate? guest: pulling the house will be really tough. -- holding the house will probably be really tough, less

than 5% if i had to put odds on it. they have a very small majority. redistricting has not turned out as rough as democrats feared, but the political environment is looking worse than they expected a year ago. what do they need? an economy to get back on track as we saw last month's job reports. we need to see inflation dissipating which is not looking likely because the fed is expected to raise interest rates and that will not be helpful politically this year for the administration. you have to have a sense of normalcy. if voters are going to the polls and still frustrated by covid regulations where there is another variant, god forbid, that would be a big problem for the white house. there are things that could improve their standing by the housel be tougher democrats to hold. the senate is another story. even the republicans only need one seed to take back the senate majority, republicans have a lot of issues with their candidates or lack of candidates running in

a lot of these big races. i think democrats have a much stronger chance to hold the senate majority, but even that is looking more challenging with the local environment the way it is. host: pick the most vulnerable democratic senator? guest: i would say catherine cortez masto in nevada which goes against some of the conventional wisdom which is raphael warnock in georgia who represent more republican leading states than does senator masto, but nevada is a state where you have a large hispanic population and a large working class population. both of those groups are moving away from the democratic party. you also have the likelihood of a credible republican candidate and former state attorney general, maybe not the greatest candidate republicans have, but somebody who is acceptable to both a trump at the mitch mcconnell wings of the party. having a unity consensus within

the republican party is hard to come by, so that is a good sign for republicans. host: if you like chatting politics, now is a good time to call in. josh kraushaar with us, host of the against the grain podcast. it will be with us until the house comes in today at 10:00 eastern. we will chat about any of the house and senate races you want to talk about, what the midterms are looking like, let us know what races you want to talk about. (202) 748-8001 for republicans to:, democrats, (202) 748-8000, independents (202) 748-8002. josh kraushaar, a minute ago you talked about the trump factor in the republican party. i want to talk about that in the wake of that speech former vice president mike pence made on friday, breaking with the president, rejecting the idea he could overturn the results of

the 2020 election. then we saw a republican lawmakers take to the sunday shows, many of them defending mike pence, and then republican leaders on capitol hill getting questions about that yesterday. we'll see if that continued through the rest of this week. does that play into any of these projections for nine months out, or is that a one week or a couple of days story? guest: is a challenge for republicans. you're seeing a low-level war brewing between the establishment and the activists within the party and the fact the republican national committee condemned liz cheney and adam kinzinger come at the very least dividing the party. there may not be a lot of anti-trump republicans left in the party, but there are a lot of republicans who do not want to see candidates looking backwards and endorsing what happened anyway six or condemning republicans -- what

happened on january 6 or condemning republicans in good standing. liz cheney is part of one of the most prominent republican families in the country. there is a civil war taking place. primaries in many important battleground states. it could get ugly. i know party leaders want to avoid those divisions and paper them over. this is the biggest challenge facing the republican party, you have these very right wing trump allied activists within the party that are not electable and if they were nominees for the senate they could cost republicans very important seats. that is the biggest problem that is affecting the party. the presence of candidates more loyal to trump and not electable to a more mainstream audience for the general election. host: if you are a democratic candidate in a tough election this cycle, do you want joe biden coming to your district or

your state to campaign with you? guest: no. [laughter] if his numbers maintain at the level they are now, president biden will be a drag on democratic candidates in swing states and swing districts. it is striking that republicans are now using joe biden as a bogeyman in their campaign ads more than nancy pelosi or aoc or dr. fauci, who has become something of republican party villain. biden's numbers are rough for president in his first midterm election. the economy has generally been rough. there's a lot of frustration about his handling of covid, and there a lot of culture war issues. education issues and other cultural staples come immigration, that with the democratic party in the white house has been out of touch with where the public is.

biden was once seen as the guy who could go to middle america, some of the swing district and be an asset. that is no longer the case. i do not think you will be seeing him campaigning in many swing states are swing districts for this midterm cycle. host: let's chat with a few callers. this is lewis, tar heel state, line for democrats. caller: top of the morning to c-span and america. i understand a lot of people want to try to downplay biden at this moment. i think he is doing an outstanding job for what he has to work with. republican senators do not want to vote on anything, anything. the democrats are pulling the load. the democrats vote on saving our government from a shut down, we have two democrats that you not want to go in on it.

my question is this. are the republicans that are running, and all of these gerrymandering states and counties they will carve out, can you tell me how much that will play into if the republicans do happen to take the house, not the senate but take the house, and what you think about these voting restrictions in these voting suppressions and these one ballot box drop-offs for a million people, tell me how much that will play into the winning you say they will crush the house. i do not believe it. guest: the good news is, or the encouraging news for democrats is the worries about gerrymandering and how that could affect democrats ability to hold the majority or lose seats, that did not end up transpiring like they were worried about.

democrats in many states they control, including illinois, new york, nevada, new mexico, ended up pursuing partisan gerrymandering in their own interest that have gained them seats and republicans have been stymied in states that have overruled republican partisan maps and force them to go back to the drawing board. my colleague and friend david wasserman at the cook political report has actually projected that democrats may gain a couple of seats when all is said and done as a result of the redistricting process in their own gerrymander's. that is one thing -- if democrats lose the house, it will not have anything to do withgerrymandering. the issue of voter suppression, the biden administration even demagogue the issue from the beginning.

they couldn't pass any of their voting laws, the raised expectations so high with their own base and then exaggerated in some cases. the caller may have hinted at, exaggerating in a way beyond reality and now they are going and talking other issues beyond the voting issue. especially in a state like georgia were biden spoke last month to kick off the year. i think these issues will be debated and go through the political process. turnout was at historic levels in 2020 and historically high levels for the 2018 midterm. i don't think you will see any changes to the appreciably limit for anyone to vote. host: this is brian, independent.

caller: good morning. i want to ask you, i think i can keep a pretty quick. if you have two sons -- you have these two sons. you hunter biden. you have tony bluesky. he has a lot of proof, a lot to say. can you actually tell me that hunter biden is getting treated the same way as one of trump's kids when you put that side-by-side? our brains work that 90% of it is visual that occupies a lot of our brain decision-making process. when we put out things for over a year against the guy trump the

way we did and we don't do the same way with biden's because he's in a different party, i find that weird. have you interviewed tony? why not we get him on here and bring out all the things we know about hunter biden. host: josh on presidential children. guest: the caller may have a point a little bit on the double standard, hunter biden is not going to be a voting issue. republicans aren't good to be trying to rally that when they talk about who to vote for in 2022. it's an issue that certainly uncomfortable for this white house but one that frankly isn't going to be a voting issue. host: if we are heading into primary season it means recruiting season is over, what

would you put is the biggest success and failure for democrats and republicans when it came to recruiting for campaign 2022? guest: i don't know if i would counted as a success. one of the biggest routing beliefs are republicans was pennsylvania, there was a likelihood the trump endorsed candidate was a little too right-wing and unelectable for the pennsylvania electorate. he ended up dropping out because of personal issues and that created a wide open primary field. now you have dr. oz is one candidate and you have david mccormick was the husband of the former trump national security adviser and a hedge fund owner. mccormick is the nominee in

pennsylvania i think would be a very strong candidate in this environment. i think the public dodged a bullet because trump's candidate ended up dropping out of that race. we will see about those other candidates. they may have dodged a bullet. on the democratic side, it's very interesting to see whether conor lamb, the congressman whose a more conventional perhaps more electable candidate ends up prevailing or whether the more unique populist figure and set up winning that primary. it's one of those races where the state and health of the party will be determined by this primary. host: this is richard in

brentwood. caller: i think your guest is may trying to downplay the effectiveness of gerrymandering on part of the republican party. they've been resolute across the country and bringing most things about. as far as the other caller talking about hunter biden, if we could discuss ivanka trump's chinese associations that would be some balance. the democrats have an obvious problem with messaging in the republican party are very good at that, so much so that they can offer themselves as a viable opportunity of -- alternative when they have no policy successes after controlling the

house from 2010 to 2016. they just aren't effective at governing. if they give control to the republicans again we will be in trouble. host: a lot of points. guest: let's talk about gerrymandering. both parties are trying to gerrymander, they are allowed to . there's no restrictions on that. what you've seen is republicans of hit roadblocks in dealing with the state supreme court's in many of the biggest states in the country. ohio, north carolina. new york saw imap the democrats might gain three to four seats from as a result of ruthless partisan gerrymandering. in ohio north carolina, the courts blocked those maps from taking place.

so both parties want to gerrymander. parties want to maximize their power as ruthlessly as possible. but the courts have been more against the republican maps. will see if the new york map faces legal scrutiny. i'm skeptical the liberal's new york supreme court will overturn these partisan maps. host: the front page of the new york times, the supreme court, ruled a state in alabama to limit the power of black voters, the court was poised to become more skeptical of challenges of maps east on claims of race discrimination and a five to four vote. don roberts joining with the courts liberal members into sand. host: a fascinating kit -- guest: a fascinating case that involves racial gerrymandering. alabama has one district specifically drawn to pack a lot

of african american voters in and a lower court essentially ruled they need to have two districts that police give black voters a chance to win seats in the state of alabama. the supreme court for different reasons, they overruled the lower court which spreads a lot of skepticism in the ruling for the need to draw minority majority districts in the big picture. traditional gerrymandering tactics could still apply. it's a complicated issue. democrats, there was something of an unholy alliance between african american leaders and republican political leaders trying to ensure minority majority representation by packing and drawing nonwhite voters in the specific district. that's providing republican

representation elsewhere. a win for a republicans in the short-term, but in the long term revisiting this having all them -- the black voters is something about get looked at again. host: from alabama to mississippi, this is james and collins. independent. caller: how are you guys doing? host: doing all right, go ahead. caller: i wanted to let him know this stuff they are talking about -- host: just go ahead. caller: how could anybody say that the president is losing on his record when two democrats

and all the republicans are turning away from him and the lies and the things being said about this economy. because you've got to democrats who refuse to help get the build back better package out. you've got all kinds of lies, of their publican party. if you think the democrats are going to sit back in 2022 and let the situation go over their heads, you can see so many people voting, it's good to be more than 87 million in 2022. this is good to be like a presidential election coming up. host: josh on joe manchin and kyrsten sinema who are not on the ballot in 2022. guest: i think the caller may

have answers on question. the reason biden is having problems is just because of publican opposition but because he has failed to secure the support in senator sinema and senator manchin on his most important initiatives. when your party is divided between the democratic party you can be losing the argument and losing political capital. this stems from the presidents overly ambitious agenda that he literally wanted to pass trillions of dollars in spending that's not politically tenable in states like arizona and certainly not west virginia. i think from the beginning president biden misread his mandate, his mandate was one for normalcy, campaign on bipartisanship, he had a 50-50 senate, very narrow majority in the house and he try to get one of the most ambitious democrat

agendas we've seen in the first year and a lot of it failed. it's a lesson you can outrun your mandate, you can out run the representation you have. host: to john in oregon. caller: good morning, thanks very much for taking my call. very interesting discussion. i want to comment i'm sure josh will agree that the winds of political -- can change with events. in this case we have the president has passed the largest infrastructure program in decades frankly in this country needs it. they need to put their hat on that and then also over time, the fact we are finally out of

afghanistan, that money pit, that blood pit look better and better with time. whenever you lose a war it never looks good when you leave and that's the case here. god love those 13 service people who gave their lives. with build back better, what they need to do is just look at the parts that they can pass, do it. host: you bring up afghanistan, infrastructure and build back better. josh, what do you want to pick up on? guest: we'll talk about afghanistan because i think that was the moment the biden administration lost its political standing. the issue of credibility was brought into question. the issue of competence was raised in terms of the

administration's failing foreign policy. and frankly the compassion. he looked like he was some kinds -- sometimes disconnected from the horrors taking place overseas. this president ran in contrast of the trump administration with competence, compassion credibility in all three fronts of kanas him wiped out that. i think that was the key, afghanistan was summing of the gateway drug for swing voters in independent voters to look at his imprint -- more closely. what's behind the curtain. you also have foreign policy worrying about what can happen in ukraine with this administration and the leadership to trying deter russia from wreaking havoc in eastern europe. i don't think afghanistan was a political success, i think it was one of the political blunders they've made so far.

host: the senate in a 10:00 a.m. eastern. president biden expected to give remarks on manufacturing. expecting that today all available on the c-span network. staying with us throughout the day. josh we talked about the supreme court a little bit earlier, i wonder your thoughts on the implications for election day 2022. if on the final day of the supreme court term this term the courts overturns roe v. wade. guest: that was one of those issues that could change the dynamic on the midterms though i don't think it will dramatically change the fundamentals that it could give democrats and abortion-rights supporters specifically an opportunity to engage and to show up in turnout. that sort of the biggest

wildcard in the biggest worry lately, the basis upset they didn't pass build back better, they talked about voting rights but didn't end up doing anything about it. trying to literally -- on the abortion front if roe v. wade gets overturned could be an opportunity in the midterm elections. the abortion issue is a little more closely divided. we saw in virginia terry mcauliffe tried to kind of raise the specter of abortion-rights being rolled back, we saw what happened in texas, referring to the issues down there. abortion was not a leading issue for virginia voters. i think it's can immobilize part of democratic base, i don't think it will dramatically

change the midterm elections. host: to patrick out of california malign for democrats. caller: -- the line for democrats. caller: i'm a 48 state long-haul truck driver and here a lot of opinions across the country. it seems to me like after what happened on january 6, especially people who listen to that, anyone who is still not 100% condemning what happened really shows their trueness. sony people seem like the good people, whoever they are that can find it in them to just condemn that. i agree with what james said in mississippi as far as a lot of people turnout to vote and now if you open of the roe v. wade

thing, talking about demonstrations and protests. i hope the upcoming election goes well. the question josh is if president biden, who to me seems a pretty sane together person after listening to his last press conference a couple weeks ago, it does seem like he has it together. -- have it together. people of insulted his mentality. my question is, if president joe biden were to step down during his term to ensure at least for a short while we had a lady female president of the united states, to me she seems to have enough together to do good work, what do you think of that?

have a good day everybody. guest: i don't think is an biden is going to voluntarily step down unless there's an absolute emergency health issue. frankly democrats privately are worried about vice president harris's political standing. they been frustrated with her inability to have a smooth interview with national newscasters on a number of key policy issues. her numbers if you look at the national polls are actually worse than president biden's and in some cases by a pretty significant margin. that's saying a lot given where president biden is right now. if president biden only serves a term and has an open primary and 2024, vice president harris would probably be front runner. but it would be pretty crowded and perhaps a wide open field given democrats of not been

impressed by her political efficacy. host: to jeff in new york, line for republicans. caller: good morning. my first question for josh concerns the economy. fuel prices, food, everything's gone up. i just paid four dollars a gallon for fueling in the fall of 2020i paid $2.17 for fuel oil. and as far as the energy i'm talking about is we had energy independence, biden is begging the saudi's to pop more oil. people should take into consideration how any billions of dollars as a working-class person paid to get you to work. it's been phenomenally expensive for people just to survive.

i always appreciate his father's input and josh hasn't fallen far from the tree. guest: the price of gas and price of goods, inflation hopeful -- polling shows that the number one worry of most americans. at one point the ministers would say it's transitory, inflation is only going to be around as long as this pandemic and stabilize. it doesn't seem to be the case anymore. that's the biggest drag right now. the inflationary environment, the fed is likely to be raising over 2022. the economic environment even though we had a good job support last month still very risky. >> i'm not sure, the caller may

be thinking of someone else. >> to rhonda in california. >> good morning. i believe our countries and bad shape. many of us who are democrats, republicans and myself an independent were very disenchanted. i voted for biden and i feel that something needs to get done in california. our gas prices are so high in the food has doubled. i believe like callers who called before me freak this up into pieces, pass what is important. covid is not going away.

our economy is killing us. can you give us some kind of scope of hope here and again it's an honor to talk to you. i'll take my answer off. before you go, you sit pass what's important, in your mind what is that? caller: there's so many. numerous ones, i just can't put one or two out. there's so much. they need to also remember bills on social security and medicare. thank you. guest: the caller i think is in the same space is a lot of swing voters which they voted for biden because they were sick of trumps antics and chaos but they

have not been satisfied with the result of the biden administration and the economic realities in 2021 and 2022. there are more biden voters have the same sentiments as the caller. that's why the tea leaves are looking very ominous for democrats right now. caller: good morning and thank you very much. i would like to go back to the redistricting issue, i think it's a very interesting thing to take a look at the fact i believe it certainly is something that's going to affect my congresswoman, elaine luria who is having to move in order to stay in her district. physically move. as a democrat i'm very concerned about the fact if there

competent women in congress and in the senate, it so often that they are attacked by republicans and i don't understand why the republicans don't want to support women in these roles. i think it's been a long time coming, i think it's important for women to participate, it is something that just shocks me. it shocks me in this day and age we don't have that kind of support for our women. i'd like your opinion on that one, thank you. guest: to your first point, virginia was one of the states with the courts essentially drew the maps, it was a bipartisan team of two experts who drew the virginia maps. the district out a little more republican but it's not a change nearly as much as other districts across the country or

even in virginia. i think her biggest challenge is she some moderate, she has good standing in her district. the big challenge of tough national environment for the democratic party men specifically her district. also we are seeing a lot of. sometimes even the fairest and independent-minded redistricting draws a member outside their home district. a little bit of to mold -- tumult, but inevitably that line drawing will cause a disruption. host: we will stay in the commonwealth. greg, independent. caller: i wanted to ask on primary election reform. it seems like the biggest part of the problem is each party keeps electing extremists within their own party and that's why

there's so much anxiety about gerrymandering. guest: that's a great question. unfortunately the prospects for widespread primary reform of how primaries are conducted is unlikely. there are some states have tried to implement their own reforms. alaska is probably the biggest state in this election cycle instead of having a traditional primary their having all the candidates and parties running on the same ballot. and they're all doing ranked choice voting where voters label and rank their favorite. lisa murkowski is up for reelection. she probably would have a tough time in the primary given the new system in place, she is a much better chance of winning reelection. california is one of them, washington state is another.

they do top two primaries where you have candidates of all parties in the state primary ballot. i'm not sure it's dramatically changed ideological makeup of the people who run and those types of races but it is a reform that's been tried and maybe it will extend to other states in the future. host: as we expect the house to come in and the next minute or two, has there been a viral moment or add from campaign 2022 in your mind so far? guest: there haven't been a whole lot of ads. there was a viral video of stacey abrams, taking a picture at an elementary school not wearing a mask full of the kids were in masks. it's an issue the generator a lot of controversy and a lot of tension. one of the big political issues republicans are looking to

exploit is the hypocrisy of public health officials. political officials who say one thing and do another. we see that with governor newsom in california, the los angeles mayor. not living up to your own standards, i wouldn't be surprised to see those images show up. host: we will leave it there. josh with the national journal. >> c-span's washington journal. every day we take your calls live on the air on the news of the day and we discussed policy issues that impact you. coming up wednesday morning, we will discuss the biden agenda and upcoming fiscal deadlines with earl blumenauer and south carolina republican congresswoman nancy mace. watch washington journal live on

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