constitutional duty in the service of our democracy with all that is going on in the world today. >> president biden nominates judge jackson for the supreme court. if confirmed judge jackson will become the first african-american woman to serve on the nation's highest court. follow this historic process. watch the confirmation hearing starting monday, march 20 first live on c-span, c-span.org, or downloading the free c-span now mobile video app. >> washington journal continues. journal" continues. host: we are back with the host and producer of 530 eight's politics podcast, and he is here with us this morning to discuss the podcast and public opinion as it relates the russia-you rain -- russia-ukraine

conflict and president biden's stance. good morning. guest: good morning, thanks for having me. host: first of all, remind our audience why it is called 538? guest: our website and podcast is called 538 podcast, because that the number of electors there are in the electoral college. that's how we elect our presidents in the united dates, and 538 spends a lot of time covering elections and trying to map the probability that one candidate or another will win. our elections in the united states are complicated in part, precisely because we elect our presidents through the electoral college and not directly. host: tell us about the podcast. when did you start it and what does it focus on? we know it is a politics podcast, but do you focus on anything in particular?

guest: absolutely. we started at the beginning of 2016, which i'm sure as many folks can remember, was a very newsy year. we were in the middle of the primaries at that point and we tracked the 2016 election and have been running ever since. what we do on the podcast and the website, we use data journalism, essentially, to find answers and get a little bit those are to the truth, better understand the world around us. what data journalism is is using data analysis and the scientific method, but really just evidence to try and help us better understand the world. i can give you an example. if you want to tell a story about whether rent prices are going up in a particular city, you can call up a few friends or post in a facebook chat room, hey, do you know people whose rent has gone up? you can write a story based on the five responses you get that yes,

people's rent has gone up. what we like to do is get population wide data. you want to look at data sets across all the neighborhoods in the city, regardless of whether the person happens to be in the facebook chat room. is there rent going up? we try to get data that captures everyone in that of just a few people. host: so you say you are using data for your podcast. do you also do interviews? who do you talk to when you decide to do your interviews? guest: absolutely. we do lots of interviews, we have roundtable discussions, we try to keep it amicable and friendly and conversational. we sometimes talk to politicians, but often, politicians like to stay on message and it can be difficult to get them off message and get the underlying realities of american politics and the complexities of it all. we like to talk to experts in the field, other journalists, all kinds of folks. people who, at the end of the

day, can give us a better understanding of the world around us, or at least that's what i hope to do. my job is to be curious and ask questions and get us closer to that truth. host: one of your latest podcasts is called, how to think about the risk of nuclear war. who did you talk to for that podcast and what data can you find about this risk of nuclear war? guest: we spoke to james acton at the carnegie center, and essentially, what we discovered, when meters are making decisions about nuclear war, they are not thinking probabilistically, in terms of do i take this step, this might put us closer to nuclear war. or this might take us farther away from the likelihood of new year war. there are ways you can think about it in the abstract

probabilistically, but they can say, no one is willing to use nuclear weapons, i can escalate and escalate and escalate, and neither side will use nuclear weapons. there are some lawmakers who are more hawkish on russia and ukraine than others, because maybe they don't fear as much the eventuality of a nuclear conflict. whereas the use of nuclear weapons is a reality and its weren't to not escalate in order to avoid that. oftentimes, leaders are not using probabilistic thinking when addressing the risks of nuclear war. host: let me remind our viewers that they can take part in this conversation. we are going to open up our lines. democrats, you can call (202) 748-8000. republicans, your number is (202) 748-8001. independence, your number is (202) 748-8002.

remember, you can always text us at (202) 748-8003. we are also reading on twitter, at @cspanwj, and facebook, at facebook.com/cspan. you have been talking to americans about their opinions of the russia-ukraine conflict. what do americans think of the russia-ukraine conflict? where do americans stand, according to the work you have done? guest: we in general do not conduct polls, but we look at polls across the spectrum and try to average them to get a better picture of what americans are thinking in general. but pollsters do the hard work of being out in the field and calling hundreds of people, trying to get answers to get the bottom of what americans think. the reason we care about this, we live in a democracy and ultimately, what americans think really matters. we should all care what americans think, particularly because we live in a

democracy. when it comes to the russia-ukraine conflict, overwhelmingly, across party lines, there is not a party split on this. americans support ukraine, do not support russia, do not support vladimir putin, the president of russia. we have seen positions within the republican party leadership in terms of how they are talking about putin and some in the media, but you don't see that amongst republican voters. it is somewhere in the range of 5% of republican voters who actually support or have a positive view of president putin. in general, americans support the economic sanctions that we have levied against russia, overwhelmingly we see big majorities. we also see there were big majorities for banning the import of russian oil, a step president biden took this week. in general, americans do not want to send u.s. troops into

ukraine. we see somewhere in the range of 30% to 40% of americans hold that view, certainly not a majority. host: when you look at polls about americans outside the beltway, what is it like here in washington? are americans united and his congress united on what should be done about the russia-ukraine conflict? guest: in a way that we have not seen in some time in american politics, in general, lawmakers and the partisan media and americans are united on this. we really don't like what russia is doing and think what happens in ukraine is an atrocity, and we want to take strong measures to respond. republicans will say that the criticism of biden's, this would never have happened if this is a stronger -- he was a stronger leader to begin with. i am sure there are plenty of

republican voters who believe that, whereas democratic voters wouldn't view biden in such a light. in general in washington, there are a number of senators, mostly on the republican side, who support sending polish warplanes into ukraine, which is not a step that the white house has been willing to take, so there are some in washington pushing for more military aid then we have given so far, but in general, in broad strokes, this is an area somewhat unique in american politics where there is a lot of agreement on how the u.s. should be responding and where our earning should be in response to russia. host: what is the opinion of the role that u.s. and nato have taken so far in the conflict? guest: that's a complicated question. as i have laid out, americans broadly support the steps that this administration has taken in order to response to russia,

overwhelmingly support economic sanctions and at the same time, do not support sending troops. so that's what biden has done. but actual views of how the white house has performed on russia are very different. 80% of americans support banning russian oil, it's not like 80% of americans think biden is doing a good job handling this crisis. it somewhere in the range of 46% of americans to 50 picks percent -- 56% of americans saying that biden is handling this crisis well, whereas the rest are saying he is not handling it well. when you think -- when you ask americans, do you think biden is doing a good job? he gets a lower response. their response to the ukraine crisis has been more generally positive then how americans view him, somewhere of the range of two thirds of americans supporting him. host: let's let our viewers take

part in this discussion. mark, calling from washington state on the independent line. i am not even going to try to pronounce the name of your town. pronounce it for us. caller: hopefully him -- hoq uium. i would like to talk about the electoral college. we have had a border fence for about 50 years, and the democrats are creating sanctuary cities which are preventing the lawful prosecution of people who have entered this country and are breaking the law. why is this important? it's because they are counted in the electoral college. over 17 million illegals are being counted in the electoral college to define the congressional districts. that's the reason why the democrats now have the house. they are using race baiting to divide the country. as mr. trump pointed out so

clearly, if you don't have a border, you don't have a country. again, the real reason this is important, the population of the united states will go up 35% by 2050. a mere 28 years from now. if we cut back on every single thing, the increase in population from illegals will overdo and make all our progress on climate nil. that makes mr. trump in the border the green president. thank you so much. host: your response, galen? guest: you know, the way the congressional districts, that we use to assign electors to the electoral college is complicated and skewed in certain ways. there are people in congressional districts who don't vote and are not legally

allowed to vote. that includes immigrants in the country illegally, and it also includes prisoners and children. prisoners can't vote, children can't vote. they get counted in the senses, obviously, and congressional districts are allotted accordingly. parts of the country have lots more children than other parts of the country. this is a complicated question, and there are folks on the right who say we should be drawing congressional districts that exclude people who cannot legally vote. we should equalize districts across the country based on theo can vote. of course, that question gets complicated when you say that would exclude immigrants in the country illegally, what that exclude children, or prisoners. that is not the argument i have heard from the rights, but maybe there are people who would support that as well. host: lori from hamburg, pennsylvania on the democrat line. good morning. caller: i was wondering what

your opinion is on the polarization of politics in the united states and what crucial part that plays in our national security? guest: of course. so, the united states has become increasingly polarized over the past three plus decades, and i think that we have seen that adversaries view our degree of polarization as a weakness. we have evidence from the 2016 election that our political divides were in some ways used by an adversary to further divide us. that is not wide from won the election, i do not think that -- that is not why that trump bank won the election -- why trump won the election. it was voters in accordance with how electors are signed -- assigned wanted him to be the president of the united states.

of course, there are adversaries who see these division as a weakness, and they have grown over time. what is important to understand is that while the united states is very polarized, we can get a little bit too caught up in that narrative sometimes. the vast majority of americans and this might apply to you when you are watching a politics show on a saturday morning, do not really like politics or engage in partisan politics. thanks about on twitter or in cable news, they really just want to live their lives and focus on the things that are immediate to their well-being, which is jobs, children, families, parents, community, religion, and things like that. while we are divided and we have grown more divided over time, some academic studies show that in the range of 80% of americans

are not engaged in that kind of partisan bickering, the stereo hyper partisan views that we see reflected on the news or on twitter. i would keep in mind for people who might be thinking that america is hopelessly divided, that is not necessarily true in the way that you see it reflected sometimes. host: one of the things i have to remind my journalism students is that america is not twitter. just because what they see on twitter all the time does not accurately reflect what all of america is thinking. they want to jump into politics but i have one more russia and ukraine question that i want you to address. do we have any reliable information on what the average russian citizen thinks or knows about what is going on in ukraine right now? guest: that is an important question because how this crisis is ultimately resolved will have a lot to do with the pressures that putin himself faces in the

conflict. at first blush you might think russia is an authoritarian country and people would be afraid to tell the truth. academics have studied this and tried to use polls in ways to remove bias when they ask about putin or certain aspects of russian life. what they have found is that while they might be slightly biased, russian polls inside russia are genuinely -- generally reliable. what we see out of russia is that putin is popular and this war is popular. according to one center, the approval rating is about 71% and only a quarter of russians does approve of him. in terms of the war it is somewhere between 50 to 55% of russian supported and only one quarter say they do not support it. you might be thinking, ok, so academics suggested that that is correct. why would putin be so popular?

someone who we have seen has caused misery and loss of life throughout ukraine? the answer is in part because russians are not seeing the same thing that you are seeing. in authoritarian countries and countries that have state run media they see a very curated view. they receive misinformation and propaganda that spends the conflict in a certain way. while russians may support the war and putin, it might not be based on full and accurate information and almost certainly is not. as a result we see that also in polls, 60% of russian say that nato and the u.s. instigated this conflict and 3% say that russia instigated this conflict. now, there are important reasons that some of this could change as the conflict goes on which i can talk about. that is where the situation stands right now. host: has putin become more popular or less popular during

these last two weeks? guest: so, we do not have polling from yesterday on putin's approval, but we see in the months leading up to his conflict -- to this conflict putin became more calculator -- popular and that tracks with the trend of his approval rating. when russia annexed crimea and invaded georgia in 2008, we saw his approval rating spike. oftentimes russians approve of these exercises because of the way that putin frames them and the pride and russia and so on. we see his approval rating fall at the at times when the economy is in trouble. russia tried to monetize it state benefits in the to thousands and we saw a significant -- in the 2000's and we saw a significant backlash. we do not know where things will go in terms with how russians approve or the war -- of putin

or the war is because this will become more complicated than the role that ukraine plays. because the russian economy is struggling based on economic sanctions that the west has levied against it. we see the ruble pressing -- crashing and western businesses are leaving. and there are restrictions on taking out cash from banks. and so, if the economy suffers there is a chance that putin's approval rating could fall and a support for the war could fall. it also matters how this is viewed in the context of is the west being antagonistic towards russia and we need to stay strong and this is a sacrifice that we are willing to pay? that is the question and we will have to wait and see. host: let us jump across the atlantic and go from vladimir putin talking about joe biden. how popular or unpopular has joe biden become during these last two weeks after russia invaded ukraine? guest: as of today according to

our avril -- average of polls at fivethirtyeight.com. he has a majority of americans disapproving of the job he is doing. that is by a slim margin. that is not a good performance. historic -- historically speaking trump and ford have approval ratings that were about that low at this point in the presidency. i think trump was two points lower and ford was one point higher. it is not a good position to be in. his improve his approval rating has improved over the past few weeks of this -- as this conflict has played out. his overall approval rating has ticked up by two to 2.5 points. that is because i mentioned that americans have more positive than negative views about how biden has reacted to the crisis

in ukraine. now, there are reasons that he could become more popular as time goes on and their reasons he could become less popular. also the ukraine crisis is not the only thing affecting how americans view biden. there is the state of the covid pandemic, the economy, inflation, and things like that. so far the majority of americans have said that they are willing to ban russian oil, even if it means that the gas prices go up. 60% of americans hold that view. we will see if they've still feel that way. -- if they still feel that way. americans are willing to make sacrifices to levy sanctions against russia. host: letting our viewers jump in again, christine from illinois on the independent line. good morning. caller: i do not think this survey is doing us much good because we have an election in

november, and many people are thinking more about that election than this crisis. and any numbers you get really reflect more on that than anything else. and -- that is all i have to say. guest: that is a good point to a certain extent in that yes, the media is largely focused on the crisis in ukraine and ultimately there are other things when american -- that americans will consider when they vote. in polls, 80% of americans say they are following what is happening in ukraine. that is a lot of people. if you do a survey across the media landscape there is large agreement in terms of how we feel about this conflict and how it is being portrayed on tv. that can be a powerful thing. will the ukraine crisis still be shaping public opinion come

november, it might not be. maybe we should all hope that it is not, we should all hope that it is resolved and remain -- and ukraine remains a sovereign, democratic country. i am not a fortune teller so i cannot tell you that. we know that the economy, inflation, and covid are shaping how americans view biden and partisanship overall is shaping how americans view biden. we have become more polarized as a country and as that has happened fewer americans are willing to, if you are a republican say you approve of a democratic president or democrat approve of a republican president. there is some baked and guardrails about help unpopular or popular a president can be as a result of that. host: harold calling from mount pleasant, michigan on the independent line. good morning. caller: good morning. i just thought i would give you a call and some of my views on

the issues going on. i think that the history -- americans do not know much about ukraine but they have a long history of independence from russia, especially in the 20's when they supported the tsar, and they were can -- they were expected to be the white russians and in the great slaughter millions and millions of white russians were starved to death. america has always pulled itself together in times of crisis. if we are viewing this crisis as an international effect, -- international threat, americans will rally to protect the country and biden's support should increase, which i am surprised it has not. i think most americans do not view it as a threat to this country. so that is about all i have to say, thank you for taking my call. guest: i think you are right that most americans do not view it as a threat to the contrary

directly. if you pull americans -- poll americans they have different views on how america should respond if russia attacks a nato country. when you do surveys about how should rot -- how should america respond if russia attacks other countries. as it gets closer to home and as we ask about countries that we have sort of maybe a closer history with or lots of immigration from, american views changed to be more supportive -- more supportive of responding with force. when you are talking about whether or not american support biden throughout all of this? in times of war there is a phenomenon in public opinion called the rally around the flag effect, which is where a lot of american support whoever the current leader is or lots of civilians support whoever the current leader is across party lines. that happened with george w.

bush in the aftermath of 9/11. close to 90% of american supported bush even though a year prior there was a big question on who had won the election. we do not see that in the united states today and part of the reason is one, people do not feel that this is a direct threat to united states sovereignty. also, it only happens when there are not loud opposition voices to the current leadership. we see that while lots of republicans might be in agreement and terms of sanctions there is plenty of criticism of the president in terms of are we using enough force? was ukraine invaded in the first place because biden was not strong enough as a leader. there were already negative views about biden's handling of foreign affairs because of the withdrawal from afghanistan. those are some of the reasons we are not seeing a rally around the flag effect. if you want an example, look at president volodymyr zelenskyy

who is experiencing an approval rating above 80% because ukrainians feel that the sovereignty of their nation is under attack and basically all opposition has gone away. if a year ago there was a debate on how to pay for health care, all of a sudden that is not at the forefront, it is basically fending off the russians and following volodymyr zelenskyy's lead. that is a good example of what you are talking about. host: earlier you told us you are not a fortuneteller, but can you tell us what the midterm elections coming up look like right now. the republicans have the ability to take back the house or senate? guest: i am not a fortuneteller or a betting man. if i was i would bet that republicans will their least take back the house. why do i say that? first of all president biden is

not popular. and unpopular presidents do not do well at the midterms. their party does not do well. the only have two examples in postwar america during which a president's party gained seats at midterms in 1998 and 2002. 1998 the approval rating was around 685% because basically americans thought that republicans were going too far in trying to impeach him and so rally to support him. 2002 was the aftermath of 9/11 and bush's approval rate was 67%. we should not expect given that, unless such changes dramatically, democrats to be gaining seats. there is also other evidence that would suggest that the democrats will not do well. if you look at other elections that have happened like the governors elections in new jersey or virginia, though

shifted from about 12 points between 2020 and 2021. biden won virginia by 10 points. len wanted -- glenn youngkin won by this fall, but we should expect some movement in the direction of the republican party. republicans only need to win five seats in the house in order to take control of that chamber. this isn't just me using these numbers. a lot of democrats themselves think they are headed towards a poor performance in the fall. historically we see lots of lawmakers from the party that expects to do poorly in the midterms retire in the run-up. even democrats in congress have been talking in terms of this may be our last shot in full control of washington to get what legislation we want passed passed.

as far as the houses concerned unless the political environment in america changes dramatically we should expect republicans to take control of the chamber. host: let's get into the senate before our callers. what do you see happening in the senate? guest: only a third of seats are up each cycle. unlike the house where every house seat in america will have an election this fall, only one third of senate seats will. it depends on which are holding elections that year how the party performs. the map this fall for democrats is more advantageous than the house is. they are defending that many seats.

i won't suspect democrats have to hold the senate but they probably have a better chance of the house. we are going to be looking at races in particular in arizona, georgia, pennsylvania to try to see who is going to ultimately control the senate. host: let's get back into our callers. eva from daly city, california. caller: good morning. wars, they don't start by one leader. it's really shameful to see the 21st century after two world wars to have a war again. the leaders want really to use them because the houses are

really full. we need someone to wake us up and look for the hungry kids, sickness, and stop really having wars. we can have a by voting people who don't love wars. god help all of us. thank you for listening to me. host: respond if you need to. guest: i mean, that is a great point. and how americans and russians are thinking about it, at the end of the day there is more to understanding this conflict in the numbers. we are seeing it play out across the country. no amount of trying to decipher

the polls will convey what ukrainians are experiencing which is absolute terrible loss of life and horror. millions of people are displaced. it iss quite frankl -- it is quite frankly, said. -- frankly sad. host: missy from bloomfield, iowa on the independent line. caller: thanks for taking my call. i have a couple of statements and questions. number one is we didn't hear anything about the research labs in ukraine until putin was able to get in there and get the paperwork out and show it to the american people. two, i would like to talk about how the democrats are trying to put pressure on big pharma and removing their pharmaceutical

facilities out of russia and not allowing the russian people to get medications anymore. isn't that a little backwards? taking out out on people when it is the government that is doing things? host: respond if you want to, galen. guest: this is not my area of expertise. i know in the last hour you did fact checking in terms of that, research labs in ukraine. we can refer back to that fact check that you read from the washington post. ultimately i will say that in terms of sympathy for russia in this conflict, you will find very little of it. amongst the american people. as i mentioned at the beginning while there may be some division among republican leadership and republican-aligned media, republican voters by and large do not think that russia is in the right in the conflict or

support or view favorably president putin, and that is a marginal view in american life today. across party lines the vast majority of americans believe that russia is the aggressor and do not support what that country or leader is doing in that country. host: we talked about how the white house has called the russian propaganda push of u.s. biolab sin ukraine to be simply propaganda and lies. the washington post they do a fact check on it, which you can find on their website. let's go to jeff from pennsylvania on the republican line. good morning. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. was there a new budget that was just passed for this fiscal year with a 21% raise in the budget? who does that benefit? just a question. thank you very much.

host: do you want to jump on the budget question, galen? guest: in terms of who that benefits, i think that that is a big question that you would have to parse through a lot of reporting. it is not a question that i can really help answer for you, but i'm sure that lots of people have different views on how the white house and congress are doing in terms of spending. i think that right now when it comes to the economy we have been talking a lot about polling ukraine. when it comes to polling on the economy americans are not happy. in pew and gallup polling, two groups that do a lot of surveys and ask americans "what are you thinking about" what are you most concerned about" the economy ranks highly. when gallup asks what are you the most worried about, inflation comes up the most.

as far as government spending plays a role in inflation, and people debate this, there are lots of reason we may be experiencing inflation right now . one our supply chain issues related to the pandemic, fed policies, but also government spending. this is something that politicians in washington will have to contend with, and i think democrats know it and biden has been increasingly talking about inflation. a recent poll showed two thirds of americans don't think that the white house is doing enough to address inflation. when two thirds of americans support something that means that even people who lean towards the democratic column hold that view. there is some sense of bipartisan consensus that the white house hasn't been host: let's look ahead to the 2024 election.

former president trump is he the perceptive nominee? guest: at this point in time we see that in very early polls trump leads the field. that has a million caveats. we probably should not be paying attention to republican presidential primary polling this early in the cycle, just to give you some example, this is a very particular circumstance, a very rare situation in which a one term president who has lost reelection is eligible for a second term and seems to want it. it seems like if he does run there will be a lot of support for him amongst republicans.

there will still be time before that eventuality happens. two years from now is when americans will be deciding, republicans in particular, that could change in two years. that has changed in over a year that biden has been president. some of tom's favorability -- some of trump's favorability has slumped a little. you see ron desantis is one of those voices. he was very successful in virginia.

he has near universal name recognition. if you want nominee, he has a good chance of being there. caller: i was just going to mention that i am just appalled at our president's reaction to the war in ukraine. russia attacking ukraine. you shall not stand idly by.

but they have asked for mig's and poland was ready to said that -- was ready to send them and mr. biden nixed that opportunity. i do not understand it, it is crazy. i think that if americans feel secure, we should feel very insecure. host: we are running out of time so respond very quickly. guest: i am happy to respond. around 30% to 40% say that the u.s. should get involved militarily meeting the vast majority of americans do not we should get involved militarily, and of course giving that kind of aid or even enforcing a no-fly zone would essentially lead to a direct conflict between the u.s. and russia both of which are nuclear superpowers. in general leaders are trying to avoid a situation in which the u.s. and russia are in a direct conflict because that could be bad for everyone. i would say that in past conflicts we see that the u.s.

only really gets involved militarily where there is over -- when there is overwhelming support for doing so. that is not the case right now. we will see how this evolves over time, but for now americans do not want u.s. troops getting involved, and there is a chance that through certain measures that we take and military aid host: host: that we get closer. we would like to thank galen druke the host and producer of fivethirtyeight's talking us through public opinion on russia-ukraine, the political situation in the united states and the upcoming midterm elections. thank you so much. guest: happy to do it. thank you for having me. host: we want to thank all of you for another great edition of "washington journal." we will be back again tomorrow morning. continue to wash your hands and have a great saturday, everyone. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2022]

[captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] ♪ >> c-span's washington journal, everyday we are taking calls live on the air, on the news of the day, and discussing policy issues that impact you. >> spencer wirt, the scientist and author of the rise of nuclear fear on the history of nuclear anxiety. watch "washington journal live at 7:00 a.m. eastern. be sure to join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, text messages, and tweets.

this week, on the c-span networks, both chambers of congress in session. houseboats to revoke russia's normal trade relations in response to the ongoing invasion in ukraine. they will pick up the pandemic relief bill. the senate vote on a confirmation for the white house budget director. poland's foreign minister who chairs the organization for security and cooperation in europe talks to the security council about the ongoing crisis stemming from russia's invasion of ukraine. tuesday at 10:00 eastern, state department officials testified before the senate foreign relations committee on the u.s. response to the rise and authoritarianism around the globe. on wednesday at 10:00 a.m. on c-span-3, officials discuss activity in europe before the

house armed committee. defense department intelligence leaders testify before the house armed services committee. watch next week live on the c-span networks or on to say no -- or on c-span now, our free app. c-span, your unfiltered view of government. >> c-span now is a free mobile app featuring your unfiltered view of what is happening in washington here and keep up with information with live streams of floor and hearings on congress, white house events, all at your fingertips. stay current with the latest episodes of "washington journal"

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