nonprofit organization. >> "washington journal" continues. host: leah askarinam joins us come up with us this morning to focus on the midterm elections. welcome back to "washington journal."

guest: thanks so much for having me. host: let's focus on the role of the president, the influence of the president's poll popularity. are we seeing evidence of the president's declining poll numbers having an effect on down ballot races so far for democrats? guest: historically, there is no getting around this. the president, especially in his first midterms, and's of having major effects on down ballot races. there will be candidate to attempt to distance themselves from the president. they have this same kind of trend every year. we saw the same thing with trump, for example. some are more successful than others. i'm sure your viewers have heard from other folks on this show that in general, when the president and power, his party and his first midterm loses

seats in the first midterm. the only exception has been in years with major historic events . after 9/11, for example, and after the great depression. initially we thought that maybe the pandemic would be one of those major historical events, that potentially -- the pandemic could alter history, but that is looking less and less likely as the president's up or for weightings -- present's approval ratings hover in the low 40's. host: you touched on this in your newsletter, on an issue that is certainly prominent in the election, immigration. democrats face tough questions on border saga as it enters new chapters.

not just with numbers of the republican, but members of it party -- of his own party. guest: absolutely, especially because of were some of the most vulnerable seats are coming your the border. that is going to make it a bigger issue. i will say a lot of the reason this is an issue is because republicans have turned up the volume on this. part of this is the upcoming expiration of title 42, which had turned most migrants away at the border during the pandemic. it was a trump era policy that continued in the biden adminstration. that looks likely to reverse. republicans have latched onto that as a major example of the biden administration not having

a plan to combat immigration, which is an issue republicans put at the top of their list, especially since the trump administration. host: let's look at the senate. a 50-50 senate right now. who has a better chance of winning the senate in 2022, and where are the challenges for both sides? guest: basically, both parties need to number one protect their incumbents. that is the number one priority. we talk about these trends in the house with the president's party consistently losing seats

in the first midterm, that does not apply to the senate. a lot of that is because not every seat in the senate is up every single election. it depends on how favorable the map is every year. for example, in 1982, in reagan's first midterms, he was facing similar economic issues with inflation and eventually into unemployment. even as his party lost seats in the house in 1982, they picked up a senate seat. so it is not impossible for democrats to have a similar scenario here. it really depends on these handful of states. there are four democratic senators playing defense and some of the most competitive states in the country that biden won very narrowly, and there are

three vulnerable republican seats, but two of those are actually open, meaning senators have retired, so those half-dozen sits are were to look -- seats are where to look. host: our guest is with "the new york times." we welcome your calls and comments on the midterm elections. the lines are (202) 748-8001 four republicans, (202) 748-8000 for democrats, and for independents and others, (202) 748-8002. let me ask you about the ohio senate race. jd vance, the hillbilly elegy author, is one of the republican candidates there. jd vance endorsed by president trump this past week. was that a surprise? guest: it was not a surprise

that he was going to endorse. he made it clear he was going to eventually endorse. i think the choice would have been surprising no matter who he chose because it was such a close race. it is a crowded primary, which means -- backing a bit, this is an open seat. there's been this primary between five different republicans that has probably been the most is in full primaries of the senate map in 2022. in the end, it looks like trump endorsed jd vance and we are not going to see the other poor -- the other four candidate give up. so they will still explain why they are the most trumpy, even if they did not get the

endorsement. it is really an example of a phenomenon we have been seeing across the country. in ohio i think it is a little bit more extreme. in one of their debates, the primary debates, it almost came to blows a few weeks ago. but it is i dynamic we are seeing over and over again, where trump makes an endorsement of a republican, that republican gets a bit of a boost, but because it is such a crowded primary and the eventual winner might win with less than 30% of the republican electorate, it is still anybody's game. in the end it is probably going to be important for trump to see what his influences in the party. we know his endorsement gives a boost. we don't know how big that boost is. that is something we can look for in ohio. 1 in the democratic -- host: in the democratic side, one of the

candidates running is congress meant tim ryan. is he the likely democratic candidate there in ohio? guest: yes, that one is not the most competitive democratic primary we are seeing this year. tim ryan has is a glitch theater lane for himself. any opposition he faces is pretty nominal at this point. he's already running a general election campaign, talking about jobs and being tough on china, trying to get away from this democratic brand that republicans have painted across the country before the general election actually starts. what we have seen in previous races, and this is key to kitchen cinema'-- two kyrsten sinema's 2018 race, is while republicans are engaging in this interparty battle, the democrat

is able to come out and create their own brand that is going to potential he be a little bit stronger because he's not facing quite as intense attacks this early on. he has money. he has the fundraising. he can get on television and start to establish his own brand before republicans start going after him in earnest. now, that might not matter. let me be clear about that. voters understand there is difference between personality when it comes to congressional races. in governors races, they are more likely to give the other party to benefit of the doubt. but in senate races, voters very much know that they are not just voting for tim ryan or jd vance. they are also voting for majority leader mitch mcconnell or chuck schumer. host: we touched on the immigration issue.

200 days or something like that out from the midterm elections, but top of the list of topics has to be the economy, right? guest: absolutely, and that is probably why democrats are in many ways expecting it to be a really tough year. we heard an interview with political -- politico over the weekend where a biden poster expressed that this is going to be a really tough year for democrats, much of the reason being inflation. that is a little bit tricky because a lot of the other economic indicators are actually pretty strong right now. unemployment, for example. but that is not what people are feeling and you go fill up your tank of gas. you notice that number being higher now than it was a year ago. also, it is an issue that republicans have always felt

that they have an advantage on when it comes to the economy, and they get to use the arguments that democrats have been the earth possible with their spending which is a typical republican attack of democrats. now, joe biden is now pointing to the invasion of ukraine as a reason for these price hikes, so the question is, do voters end up giving biden the benefit of the doubt, believing that the reason why things are tough right now is because of putin, and putin is the one to blame? or are republicans going to be successful in arguing that biden is the one to blame? host: your colleague trip gabriel had a piece, "the senate's most vulnerable democrats in four states face tough campaigns."

the senator in georgia had a stunning come-from-behind win in the 2020 election that threw the balance of power. how likely is there another potential stunning upset with the candidacy of herschel walker, the former football star in georgia? guest: herschel walker is most likely going to be the nominee. there's not a real competitive primary for republicans in georgia at this point. so whatever happens, it is not really an upset either way. if herschel walker wins, georgia was one of the closest, if not the closest state in the 2020 election. it is the first midterm after the first term of the sitting president. so the trend in and of itself

could push republicans to a victory. f raphael warnock wins, he has proven himself to be a pretty strong candidate before. he will also have stacey abrams running statewide at the same time, probably working together on get out the vote efforts, which are huge in georgia in terms of getting turn out. that is going to be a major issue for democrats. so either way, it should be kind of an expected result, if that makes sense. host: let's get to calls for our guest, leah askarinam. we will be to liam in south carolina. good morning. caller: yes. it has been a while since i called. i'm going to cover three topics. let me talk about the ukraine and russia situation. i know it is not that different from iraq and afghanistan. i don't understand why we need a bogeyman. we've got to feed that

military-industrial complex. let's talk about immigration. illegal immigration is killing america, and they used to go to mexico before their court date. now they get to stay in the united states before you go to court. the joe biden administration is giving illegals free smartphones where they can be tracked. how ludicrous is that? and the national debt is over $30 trillion while we are spending money on -- for america. china is sitting back laughing. we spent billions in iraq, billions in afghanistan, now we are spending billions in ukraine. what about nato? i hear all about our allies, but united states provides the weapons and the military aid. in the midterm elections, the democrats are going to get wiped out. inflation is so high.

the pay ain't keeping up with the wages. americans are struggling. host: ok, several things there. your response. guest: i think you hit on a few different points there that i think are going to be important in the midterms. i think the most interesting one is the issue of nationalism which you kind of hinted at. when we are talking about ukraine and russia and where america is putting its resources , it is pretty typical for this to become a conversation about whether the united states should be getting involved in other countries affairs, fixing other problems, or focusing on our own. obviously you can't really separate the two in a lot of ways because what happens internationally affects us nationally. but we saw trump in 2020 run on

a platform that was literally called america first. it was a platform that went against the traditional republican foreign policy platform. it was far less hawkish then your typical republican. it was about isolationism and focusing on the country. we saw some democrats and grace -- democrats embrace that exact same messaging in the 2020 election, thinking the more progressive movement. bernie sanders kind of the spokesman for that kind of thing. but what we have seen in the last few months is oath parties kind of abandoning that and coming together in a pretty moderate, almost bipartisan acceptance of allies and nato and the importance of having those relationships internationally so that when

there is a crisis like what we are seeing in ukraine, that the country has backup. now we are seeing the kind of getting of this conflict that saw a lot of support from americans coming together in support of ukraine, and i think the question now is how long does that last. at what point does this become for voters, windows this become we need to focus more on americans? if you are actually listening to the more republican talking points or a lot of the sunday shows, republicans argue that we are not doing enough for ukraine, that we should be putting in more effort, more resources. so it is this really interesting balancing act right now. we are seeing republicans try to figure out what their foreign policy position is in a post-trump world. we have also seen trump backed

off from some of his compliments of putin. so i am interested to see what republican foreign policy looks like in the next two and four years or get i don't think we are going to get those answers during the campaign because republicans, as the minority party, as minority parties pretty much always do, can't argue against the status quo without -- can argue against the status quo without having a real concrete solution. so if and when we see republicans with power in congress in the next few years, i think this whole conversation is going to have a huge effect on the way we see foreign policy. host: our guest is the former editor of the national journal hotline. she's now co-author of the on politics newsletter with "the new york times." we welcome your calls and comment. for republicans, (202) 748-8001.

democrats, (202) 748-8000. independents and others, (202) 748-8002. carol is calling from new york. good morning. norwich, new york. you are on the air. caller: hello there. go ahead. thanks very much. i live in the 22nd district. i'm going to move to the 19th district with new candidates. as far as how you would rate the race between anthony del gato and feld aro, i know it looks like a very interesting race, so i wonder if you would give some

comments about that, as well as my new candidates in the upcoming election. thank you very much. guest: thank you for that question. antonio delgado is just an interesting candidate. i have found him to be an interesting candidate since he was for it elected in 2018. the lines of this new district, i need to make sure i am having this correct with the new lines compared to the old ones. my understanding is that this is not necessarily going to be the top of the most competitive districts in the country, but again, with the changes in the last few weeks and months, i think this is one that i would like to continue to look at. mark malan aro was the last nominee, and del gato defeated

him pretty handily. so definitely will not i will be watching. unfortunately, it is not one that i have tons of details on in this early stage. host: he brings up a good point, that this year is the first year we will have the effects of the 2020 census. are those -- those effects are happening across the country, correct? guest: absolutely, and new york is one of the most important states in terms of the way redistricting went. it is a place where democrats did have a major advantage, which was actually pretty rare. republicans did have the advantage in most states, just replies -- just because we publicans have more control over state legislatures across the country. so new york is one of those places where democrats were able to secure a handful of seats,

preventing too much competition and ensuring that there is a bit of a floor for democrats. it was a moment where it looked like this cycle, republicans would have a much bigger advantage in redistricting because of this dynamic where they do have control over more governorships and state legislatures. new york is probably a key example of why that advantage did not play out as intensely as it could have. host: i use this headline from "the washington times" on the senate race in pennsylvania. "oz's past positions on energy undercut candidacy." what is that race like in pennsylvania? guest: this is another one where we just saw trump make an endorsement. to start with the republican

side, it is a crowded republican primary, but there has been a bit of a separation in that one that we have not seen in ohio. we have seen it sort of break off so that meant oz, probably better known to most as dr. oz, was in the top tier, along with david mccormick, who is running as a wealthy entrepreneur outsider. couple of weeks ago, donald trump endorsed dr. oz, and that does change the dynamic of the race. we are seeing that mccormick is also being advised by trump supporters, definitely not distancing himself from trump. it is going to be quite the primary. we saw within days of mehmet oz receiving the endorsement showing footage of trump having

his endorsement. it is going to be a much clearer kind of case of the power of a trump endorsement because the primary is really centered around these two men rather than a kind of equal footing among five people. on a democratic side, it is just as interesting. have a few different candidates. i think it seems like it is coming down districts before. if you've heard of conor lamb before this senate race, it is probably because in the 2018 cycle, he won a special election before the democratic wave in

2018, and it was seen as a kind of forecast of this potential democratic wave because he won in a district that trump carried, so it wasn't upset. we have seen him when the cult districts. again, since then, he's running as the candidate who can win in pennsylvania, which biden won in 2020, but not by a huge margin. so trying to win over trump voters. federman has been a progressive figure in politics for a while. he is a mainstay in democratic politics, a former mayor. he's going to have a bit more controversies to deal with in his past. he has been around longer. but he is a formidable fundraiser and definitely a top contender. host: one of the images he is trying to portray is that of a washington outsider, at least through his tv ads. here's a look at one of john federman's recent ads. [video clip] >> john federman.

we built this and run -- he's a political machine statewide. reforms the office more than anyone in decades. turned down the state mansion and saved the taxpayers money. now he's taking on washington. prices keep rising, jobs keep leaving, and they just keep talking. the d.c. politicians just don't get it. federman, he will make them get. >> i'm john federman, and i approve this message. host: back to calls from our guests. we will go to william in new jersey. caller: thank you. the biden-harris open border has created the deaths of over 150,000 americans from fentanyl poisoning, among other problems like diseases, and contrary to what your guest said, the republicans do have a plan.

it is called finish the border that president trump built, and also use american oil and gas as president trump did to stop mr. biden high gas prices and extremely higher grocery prices due to the high cost of trucking from using the obviously pricier, more expensive gas. host: ok. leah, any thoughts? guest: i think when it comes to border security, republicans have given a much more definitive view of what they see as a solution to the border than democrats do. i think that is pretty widely accepted and summoned that we mentioned in our newsletter earlier this week.

trump came out in 2016 with a very clear vision. whether that vision was universally like, that is a different question. it was obviously a very stringent, harsh outlook that he put out. but it was also very clear. at the time title 42 went into effect, trump had already tried many times to stop border crossings using similar measures. so yes, when it comes to the border, republicans have a clear answer, a clear answer for what they would like to see the solutions b. when it comes to gas prices and the solution to issues with price increases, it is one of those issues where there is a clear few avenues that, kratz or whoever in power can take, and we are seeing biden take a handful of them. he was in iowa last week lifting

regulations on a type of gasoline mixed with ethanol that would normally be restricted in the summer because of environmental reasons. we are seeing biden really torn between his initial platform and his initial views on how the ukraine crisis what effect the way that americans deal with foreign oil. as this conflict has continued to go on, those solutions are becoming -- it is becoming a much more complicated situation and those solutions are not going to fully address this. i think the question is, looking at the bigger economy, how much can the president do in order to fix prices, and would you fix inflation. that is the question that we come to every single presidential election. how much influence does the president actually have on the

economy? right now, democrats are trying to show that they are coming up with measures to ease the pain, and republicans are basically making the point that that is not enough. i think that point is going to resonate with voters in 2022 if they continue to feel the punch. host: let's go to ohio. george is on the line, republican caller. caller: thanks. good morning and happy patriot'' day. [indiscernible] thanks to the guest. "the new york times" had biden laptop stories and of the

dossier of president trump. 15 months later, look at the status of our nation. look at what is happening. it is ridiculous. [indiscernible] might be another pandemic. host: george, we talked about the senate race in ohio. who do you want as a senate candidate in your state, jd vance? is he the favorite there? caller: i might go with matt dolan on that, actually. i don't know about vance. they are not giving much on the democrat side. host: appreciate the call. guest: that is so interesting

that that kind of ended with matt dolan. but i think that is exactly the dynamic that he pinned for is perfectly, that in this primary in ohio, there are a whole bunch of different factors that dolan is not the toughest on trump. he's also not one of the top candidates. but as long as those candidates continue to get support, we are going to see a really divided electorate, and that is going to allow whoever ends up winning this nomination to potentially win with a pretty small share of the vote, a plurality definitely, not a majority. what is really important about that is that the primary come of the ribald can primary in ohio is more likely than not to elect the next senator from ohio. of course, democrats could win. tim ryan is a strong candidate.

but we are talking ohio. it has been a republican state for, especially with the incumbent administration. we did see a democrat win in 2018, but that was a really good year for democrats. this time, tim ryan is going to have a much tougher challenge ahead of him then sherrod brown did when he, as a democratic incumbent, won reelection. what we are going to see is a candidate who receives a plurality support in the primary ending up being a key voice in the senate. to be tear, rob portman has been one of the more understated members of the senate. i think we are going to see a very different senate partially because of these crowded republican primaries that are going to likely elect members who did not get a huge amount of

support from the republican electorate to begin with. it is just a dynamic to keep an eye out for. host: we will give our viewers and listeners a flavor of what that race is like in ohio. we talked about jd vance, one of the republican candidates, now endorsed by former president donald trump, and the likely democratic candidate in that state for senate's current representative tim ryan. here are ads from both of those candidates. [video clip] >> are you a racist? do you hate mexicans? the media calls us racist for wanting to build trump's wall. they censor us, but it doesn't change the truth. joe biden's open border is killing ohioans, with more illegal drugs and democrat voters pouring into this country. this issue is personal. i nearly lost my mother to the poison coming across our border. no child should grow up an orphan. i'm jd vance, and i approve this message because whatever they call us, we will put america first. > who here is tired of

getting hammered by inflation? we've got to get serious about lowering costs and actually helping people, and that means both parties need to stop wasting time on stupid fights. we've got to take on china, fix our supply chains by making things in america, and pass a real tax cut for workers to put more money into your pockets. we can't afford to be democrats and republicans right now. we have to be americans first. i'm tim ryan, and i approve this message. host: it was interesting to see tim ryan addressing inflation, prices, and the issues that are really hurting the biden administration currently in that ad, which was basically part of one of his campaign speeches. guest: a lot of democrats are looking at inflation and thinking there is no way they can avoid it in their messaging. there are a couple of different approaches that democrats have used when they are trying to discuss the economy, and one we

have seen especially from senators, from raphael warnock in georgia as well, is emphasizing that it is a tough time, not arguing with the idea that the economy is not what it needs to be for americans to feel comfortable, and trying to give solutions while also just explaining that they get it. in other democratic elections, what you are seeing in governors races is kind of show enough progress made in individual states. so maybe not mentioning inflation, but talking about lowering a gas tax that helps people stretch their pocketbooks. so what you're seeing with tim ryan is acknowledging that angst, that frustration, and hoping that that allows him to win over trump voters. what you are seeing from jd

vance was really a cultural ad, a more visceral issue that he is trying to get ads out to who represents you, not necessarily your interests. that is something that trump did well in 2016, and spite losing in 2020, i think he resonated with some voters in a way that is really unprecedented. so we are seeing some democrats try to emulate this kind of populist approach. tim ryan has been doing that for years now, but it is going to look very different from the way a jd vance populist approach looks like. host: let's hear from russell in south carolina on the democrats line. caller: yes, good morning, america, and good morning to c-span. i just wanted to point out that it occurred to me that the

republicans are talking about going on offense. i've actually heard republicans saying that they are going to attack the people on the january 6 committee. they are going to continue with this banning books. they're going to go on the attack. mcconnell actually said i will tell you our plan when we win, when someone asked him the other day what the republicans plan about doing with the majority. what i don't understand, marjorie taylor greene said the other day that if you join the military, you are throwing away your life, and that is why my son won't be in the military. on top of all of the other crazy things that she said, she is

apparently the voice of the republican party these days. host: the issue of january 6 and the aftermath. a campaign issue? guest: in some ways, yes. i think january 6 has become a real concern for people on the committee, especially on the house committee. if republicans win the house, it seems pretty clear that that committee will no longer be doing much work. what we are seeing is democrats having real conversations, not just democrats, but rip guns like liz cheney and adam kinzinger, about what to do with their power now while they have it. and whether there's a political risk, i think, is one of the major questions of the midterms. voters in polling and focus groups, generally sixth is not

their top concern. it seems very few voters are voting at this moment on the events of january 6. that said, i think that january 6 does inform a lot of the way that we are viewing the election , even if we are not voting on january 6. there are people voting on the idea of election integrity or the idea of a stolen election, which is obviously a false claim , but one that we are hearing across the country in republican primaries. so the question is whether democrats want to engage in that question. is that something that they think they can win a messaging war on? i think that is not some that we have seen democrats really want to talk about on the campaign trail. they would much rather talk about health care, the economy. we might see that democrats talk more about abortion rights, depending on what happens with the supreme court decision on abortion this spring.

when i thing about january 6 and its role in the election, i think less about whether voters are going to the voting booth and saying i am voting because this person said that january 6 was bad and this person said that it was not bad. what we are seeing instead is people kind of have internalized some of the messaging from january 6 it comes to voting, when it comes to frustration, and when it comes to frustration with trump. we have seen republicans come out against trump, mitch mcconnell the top example, since the generally six attack and how that informs the way campaigns are enacted. host: liz event

since the pandemic -- this was the first in person event at the library since the pandemic. ♪ >> i am the vice chairman of the lbj library and foundation, and i want to welcome each and every