interesting. >> c-span's washington journal, every day we take her calls live on the air on the news of the , day, and we discuss policy issues that impact you. coming up monday morning, ebony mcmorris and politicos nicholas wu discuss the news of the day and the week ahead in washington. and we'll look at the biden administration's national drug control policy with a drug policy researcher for the rand corporation. watch live at 7:00 eastern monday morning, on c-span now, our free mobile app. join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, texts, and tweets. >> c-span now is a free mobile app featuring your unfiltered view of what is happening in washington, live and on-demand. keep up with the day's biggest events with live streams and for

proceedings and hearings from u.s. congress, white house events, the courts, campaigns and more from the world of politics, all at your fingertips. stay current with the latest episodes of washington journal. plus a variety of podcasts. c-span now is available in the apple store and google play. downloaded download it for free today. c-span now, your front row seat to washington, anytime, anywhere. >> at least six presidents recorded conversations while in office. your many of those conversations on c-span's new podcast, presidential recordings. >> season one focuses on the presidency of lyndon johnson. here about the gulf of tonkin incident, the march on selma, and the war in vietnam. not everyone knew that were

being recorded. >> certainly johnson's secretaries knew, because they were tasked with transcribing many of his conversations. in fact, they were the ones who made sure the conversations were taped, as johnson would signal to them through an open door between his office and theirs. >> you will also hear some blunt talk. >> i wanted report of the number of people that were assigned to kennedy on the day he died and the number assigned to me. if i can ever go to the bathroom, i won't go. i promise you i won't go anywhere, i will just stay here right behind these black gates. >> we are back with charlie cook of the cook political report and national journal who is here with us today to discuss the

campaign 2022 in the political news of the day. it's good to have you here with us. charlie, is good to have you with us. guest: good to be here. and in person, too. host: the world is getting back to normal. guest: i hope so. host: which means we have the political season upon us. let's just jump right into it. how would you describe the current political landscape right now for both parties on capitol hill? guest: midterm elections are almost always bad for the party in power, and what happens, typically happens is in a midterm election, if your party has the white house, it is good if they also have the house and senate, you are likely to be satisfied, complacent, may be you are disappointed they don't turn out in numbers. on the other site of the election, you hate it. you want revenge. you want to get back in

power could you hate everything the other side is doing parents so you are hyper motivated. then the other slice, the 10% in the middle who are independent, don't read anyway -- either way, they are very fickle, and they tend to get buyers remorse, and they vote against the party in power almost invariably, and that is why midterm elections are the way they are. it is, what, 30 seven out of 39 midterm elections since the civil war, and 1925 midterm elections in the senate. even down to state legislatures, it is that way. host: so democrats have the white house, the senate, and the house. the senate and the house, first of all, let's start with the senate. what does it look like for the democrats innocent? guest: well, they cannot afford

to lose anything. as you know, 50/50. i would say right now, the over/under, there's a 50% chance that they will lose two or three and a 50% chance it will be better, but two or three is the most median point in the senate. in the house, i would say a net loss of 20 seats would be the over and under in the house, and obviously five-point tip it over. it is looking pretty tough for democrats. guest: what are the vulnerable seats in the senate right now? guest: four seats they really have to worry about, arizona, mark kelly. raphael warnock in georgia. nevada, and maggie hassan in new hampshire. those are the four, it would have to be pretty horrible night for them to lose or come close

to losing anything else. for republicans, it is more open seats, really come open seat north carolina, pennsylvania, ohio. one incumbent, ron johnson, in wisconsin, and there are circumstances that missouri could get interesting or something like that. host: what about the house? are there any races in the house you are following more closely than others? guest: not really. the universe of competitive house races is getting smaller and smaller and smaller, so it will probably be fewer than two dozen in the entire senate, and there have been times where it would be, you know, 50, 60, 70, 80. but i would say any democrat that won by -- if you one by 5, 6, seven points or less, you are in trouble, or if biden won your

district by less than 10 points, let's say, you should be paying closer attention. host: that is a perfect segue to talking about president biden cured we have seen the president's job approval rating, they seem to be getting lower. . every week. how does that affect the upcoming election and should we be paying closer attention to numbers this far out of the election? guest: actually, donald trump is the only president that gained approval rating from this point to note midterm election. they almost although down at that point. my guess is that president biden's numbers are probably at about rock-bottom bottom. he is averaging 31. averaging about 41, 42. and that is a bad place to be. that means, it typically means your side is demoralized. the independents are not going to come to your side, you know, toward your way, and that usually translates to a bad

number. but you live with a generic congressional ballot test, democrats or i republican for congress, those would be two, polling wise, two of the best measurements, and is that light, moderate, or heavy? host: let me take a second to remind our viewers that they can take part in this conversation. we are going to open up our regular lines. that means that, republicans, your line will be (202) 748-8000 . 1. democrats, you can call (202) 748-8000. independents, your line is (202) 748-8002. keep in mind, you can always text us at (202) 748-8003, and we are always reading on social media, on twitter @cspanwj, and on facebook at

facebook.com/c-span. right now, republicans are running ads that seem to be focused on inflation. how much will inflation be in midterm elections this year? guest: will there be any issue other than inflation? it is normal for people to vote -- the economy to have a big, big impact on things. i think people tend to underestimate how big inflation is. the average unemployment rate has been under 6%, rounding the 6%. which means low unemployment would be 4% or less, high unemployment would be eight percent or more, so there is a four-point difference. but whether you are unemployed, underemployed, employed, retired, student, living on

social security, whatever, you are all impacted by an nation -- by inflation, and it is just dramatically more kick to the extent that the biden administration, they were focused on job creation when, as the inflationary pressures started taking up, and a lot of voters say we will not have any, or it will be little, it will be transitory, and that will be eating them alive right now. host: i want to show an ad that the republican national committee have been playing. i want to get your reaction. here is the ad. [video clip] >> housing. inflation is through the roof to how is this happened. biden said his plan would save america. pres. biden: the american rescue plan is working. >> biden said the money would go to saving jobs, fighting the pandemic, so why are americans worse off? what does the money go?

broward county recently broke down on a new luxury hotel, using millions of taxpayer dollars intended for covid relief. >> democrats use covid relief fund to bank run -- bankrolled their pet projects. millions two convicted criminals and terrorists. millions for ad campaigns in d.c. now, biden wants to spend more. higher prices, wasteful spending, no accountability. democrats are hurting hard-working americans. ♪ host: how effective are those types of ads when it comes to the midterm elections? guest: i think people feel it in their daily lives, so they probably don't need much of an ad to remind them, but it doesn't stir them up. you know, with the -- when the coronavirus hit and we are staring into the abyss, and the republican congress passed,

president trump signed one coronavirus package in march of 2020, the fed with monetary policy, they are pumping money into the economy, and then when biden took over in march of 2020 one, they put in yet another coronavirus relief package and basically, to steal a line from larry summers, those who filled the cup with too much stimulus, as a result, it created too much demand. inflation goes skyhigh. it was the cumulative impact of a lot of stimulus from different quarters, but biden and democrats, they were the ones that sort of put it over the top with the most recent of those three elements, fighting the coronavirus, in terms of stimulating the economy and the impact. host: how much does the covid-19

pandemic affect the midterm elections? can democrats still say, hey, we are still trying to get this country over the pandemic. give us a little more time. does that work at this point, or is the pandemic yesterday's news? guest: the pandemic affected all kinds of things, and then those affect the election. but i have a theory of issue contamination, that when people get mad at a president, let's say, about one thing that is important to them, if they get really mad about one thing, it contaminates how they view that president on everything else. so no matter how great a job you may be doing on handling the russian invasion of ukraine or coronavirus or anything else, if people are mad at you on inflation, nothing else matters to you. host: which brings us perfectly to this ad that the democratic house majority pack is running to die want to run this ad

and see what you think of this come from the democratic party, highlighting accomplishments. [video clip] >> two years ago, we were in crisis. the biggest single gain on record, 7.9 million new jobs, a record drop in unemployment. now democrats are tackling gas prices by releasing millions of barrels a day, and they passed a cap on insulin. democrats are getting things done to create jobs and lower costs. house majority pack is responsible for this ad. host: if i am hearing you correctly, inflation is running all of that for democrats. guest: it is stepping on any other messaging that they are trying to do. you know, in some elections, you have got the wind at your back and you win, everything is closed, and then sometimes it is in your face, and suddenly, you lose all the close ones.

you lose ones that you don't expect, that sort of thing, but you can't get any messaging through. but, you know, i think this is more of a case of maybe, you know, we hear poster say, well, democrats did not deliver what they promised, and the focus is usually on the delivery. i would argue, given how close the house and senate is committed is a wonder that they pass anything, but it was more than overpromising then and under delivering. they had proposed an agenda that had some really, really good things that would benefit lots of people, but it is an agenda you would pass if you had 60 seats in the u.s. senate, not 50. if you had 282 members of the house, not 222. for the fdr-lbj agenda but with microscopic majority and having won the presidency for, what, by 132,000 votes in four states. they kind of overextended. host: let's let our

viewers take part in this conversation. let's start with well, who is calling from portland, maine on the democrat line. will, good morning. caller: good morning. hi, charlie. you talked about federal races, but i'm wondering what you are see going on with governor races. are they going to be insulated from the biden negativity, and what impact will be is governors races have as far as being a firewall for the democrats in the presidential race next time? guest: that is a great question. i flew out of the portland airport yesterday. it used to be the state elections -- governors, state-led legislature, attorney general of the state, that they were pretty insulated from whatever was going on nationally and federally. but we are increasingly becoming more and more parliamentary, where people are just voting straight ticket, and they are either voting or they are not voting, voting straight ticket, so that now -- now there is a

very, very strong correlation, and -- between what is going on nationally and what happens in governors races, so "washington journal in your case -- so, you know, in your case, governor mills has to be very careful. if republicans are coming out of the woodwork, if independents are in a sour mood, then she has got a problem. jared golden, he has a problem if that is the configuration. there are a lot -- let's see, five governorships that we have, that the cook political report has come five democrats that are tossup -- governor kelly in kansas, witmer in michigan, since like in nevada, evers in wisconsin, and the open

governorship in pennsylvania, and then mills in maine would be the next category. there are two governorships that republicans have that are very likely to go over to democrats. that would be massachusetts, where baker is not running for reelection, and maryland with hogan. and there is in arizona, and open governorship. we see governor ducey is not running again. brian kemp and george -- it is complicated. [laughter] host: it's complicated. guest: he has got issues coming at him from the left and the right. host: what did we learn about the gubernatorial races in america by glenn youngkin's race in virginia? did we learn anything new about what these races are going to be like in the midterm yucca guest: that is probably the answer i should've gotten to in the last question. it had to do with motivation.

and the thing is, you know, terry mcauliffe was trying to come back to the governorship. he had been a good governor. he did not make any big mistakes or anything. it was about democrats being down, because president biden -- numbers have been dropping since july of last year. and then a textbook example of how to wash this line -- walk this line where you are not embracing former president trump, where you are his enemy, but at the same time, you are not pushing away from him, so that you antagonize his supporters. so for any republican running in a competitive state or district, i would say watch how glenn youngkin handled it, because he financed it very well -- finessed it very well. it is a thin line to walk. any democrat who was in denial about having problems, the

virginia governor's race, and the new jersey" governors race, and what happened in the legislature, should have been a wake up all. host: since we brought it up, let's talk about it now. how does former president donald trump affect these midterms? guest: udo, it is interesting, and i don't know if it is him being off of twitter or what, but he is not part of the day-to-day story. he is not driving news ratings as he was before. i think there is a core element, just to make up a number, one-th of republicansird -- one-third of republicans that would be loyal to him, no matter what. but i think the others, let's call it two-thirds, that like what he have said or his general positioning. i think the enthusiasm for him among them has come down. i think you will not see trump

people winning every single public and primary, the way it might have worked a few months ago. so he is not becoming unpopular with the republican base, but the enthusiasm level among many is coming down some, that they might think, you know, i would like to have somebody who is kind of like him but maybe not with the personality, you know, maybe not with the, sort of, the behavioral things. whoever wins the republican nomination in 2024, presidential, they will be somebody with a trump messaging on the republican side, whether it is him or whether it is not. host: let's talk to jim, who is: from oce we go, new york -- is calling from oswego, new york, on the republican line. caller: good morning. it is actually owego, without the s.

i want to remind our viewers, did you work as a democratic staffer at one point? guest: i have been an independent since i started the newsletter in 1984. caller: you are hardly independent. prior to the presidential elections last year, you said the presidential race would be called the night of the elections. you tried to discourage republicans from voting, and the fact is, they had to stop voting in several states in order to get all of these illegal ballots in to elect biden. and i really, honestly think they are trying to do the same thing. they are trying to give the press the republican vote, because there's going to be a way larger wave than 20 seats in the house of representatives.

the senate will probably be pretty close, but honestly, i think you are being very dishonest and trying to suppress the vote. and i don't think your record on the presidential election last year was very good at all. guest: well, it is interesting, if somebody was going to be mad at me for depressing the vote, i would think it would be democrats right now, because we are looking at something that is probably very much of a wave year in favor of republicans, and the only reason why it won't go to 40 or 5060 seats, will likely go, is that there are fewer competitive races than there used to be, plus republicans won 13 in the last election, so they are starting from a bigger, from a larger base. but i don't know, sounds to me like there is some doubt in the caller's mind to this day as to who won the 2020 presidential, but at midnight, i think most of us kind of new what was going to happen, and just to go back to

the caller, show me a judge, show me a prosecutor who has found any significant amount, i mean, any amount of significant voter fraud that would have changed any outcome whatsoever. i mean, these are conspiracy theories. but, you know, it is interesting, you are using the attack by the side that is about to lose an election, and when you say "this side is probably going to win it," it is kind of weird forgetting attacked for trying to depress their vote. i don't understand the caller. well, i think i do understand where he is coming from, but i think sometimes people are looking for a cheerleader, they are not looking for an analyst. host: well, polling and posters have been attacked over, i think, the past decade now, as

we have seen in presidential elections, midterm elections, gubernatorial elections. defend your industry right now, because it has not gotten a good wrap over the last decade or so. guest: well, i'm not a poster now. in a previous life, i was one, but i use them. but there are issues in the polling sector that we have known about for a long time, but the 2016 and 2020 presidential, yeah, there were some problems there, but not quite as many as people think. 2018, the polling was dead on. i mean, it was dead on. it was the two that president trump's name was on the ballot, those were the two. and it typically was states that you knew president trump was going to win, states that you knew biden was going to win, they went democratic.

and what happened was it was really close, and it broke one direction. that is exactly what happened. and in 2016, the presidency was settled by 78,000 votes in three states. this last time, it was 132,000 votes in four states. those are close elections. but the general direction for many states, for the most part, they typically go the way the polls say and were expected. but polling is an inexact field, but it is not nearly as far off -- and i think a lot of people equate in presidential elections the popular vote with the electoral college. no national poll even attempts to say what happens with the electoral college. host: exactly. let's go back to our phone lines, and let's talk to john, who is calling from vicksburg, michigan. john, good morning. caller: hey, good morning. how are you doing?

i want to ask mr. cook's opinion on this. i believe that, in politics, timing is everything, and i believe that jamie raskin has kind of tipped the hands of the democrats, and i think that what their plan is is to drop a bunch of subpoenas and charges on republicans just prior to the midterms, to try to sway the vote at that time. what does he think about that? guest: i don't think january 6 is going to change any minds from this point forward. i don't think there are any events that can happen from this point forward. the people capable of being outraged were outraged long ago. the people that have not been outraged are not likely to get

outraged. i think this election is going to be more about inflation or whatever. free democrats, you try to do what you can do. it is not my job to tell them what they should or should not do. my job is to say whether it looks like it may work or won't work. i think trying to steer voters away from an election being a referendum up or down on who has the office now, and in this case, inflation, i don't think anything is going to steer this election any other way than being decided on those elements. host: in presidential election years, we always hear about october surprises. does that equate to midterms? do we see major news late in a cycle that changes the races like we expect to see in a presidential year? guest: october surprise, a lot

of times when it is used, each side's base believes there is nothing too low that the other party would not do to try to affect elections. it is the ultimate cynicism. having said that, i think the october surprise in 2020 was after president did so badly in that debate september 29, you started seeing the blue wave. the democrats were going to add to their majority in the house. they were going to win the senate. biden was going to win easily. all of this blue wave talk, i think it created a backlash in the sense that a lot of these independents were thinking i am ok with replacing president trump. i'm willing to give biden the

keys to the car but not a full tank of gas or a credit card. defund the police, democratic socialism, pack the supreme court. there were second thoughts about the blue wave. i think that was the october surprise of 2020. host: one of our social media followers has a question they want you to address. this person wants to know, can you talk about the impact of abortion policy platforms on the midterm elections? guest: another question i get asked is, what could possibly change where this election seems to be headed? the only thing i can think of would be if the supreme court throws out roe v. wade lock, stock, and barrel. i am not sure it would, but that

is about the only thing i can come up with. keep in mind, a lot of states, new york state, california, illinois, they are not going to change their laws. other states. the abortion issue is the one thing that could cause a detour. but if the court just nibbles or moves it from trimester to -- they could make some changes but not enough, so i am not even sure that will. that is the only thing i can come up with. the only known unknown, to borrow the dawn rumsfeld phrase. host: let's talk to fran calling from wisconsin. on the democrats mind.

good morning. caller: good morning. i have a couple of short comments to make. if you would please let me get through the comments and then mr. cook can talk about it. first of all, it was nothing but propaganda. it is not surprising because their supporters eat up the propaganda. the other thing is nobody ever mentions gerrymandering. it is all about how the republicans are going to take the election. what about gerrymandering? to me, those are not victories. the other thing is we know what the republicans are up to. we know what trump is up to. people better wake up because

nothing is going to matter in this country if we lose our democracy and rights and independence. nothing is going to make a difference. inflation, high gas prices, nothing, if we lose our democracy. people better wake up in this country. we see how any people are ok with what happened on january 6. that is pathetic that these people are still living in this country and going along with donald trump. guest: let's start off with the caller says the rnc ads were propaganda. ok. host: all ads are propaganda. guest: propaganda is what the other side does. it is like dark money. dark money is largely

unreported, unlimited money spent on behalf of the other party. if it is spent on behalf of my party, it is concerned citizens wanting to improve the country. there is plenty of hypocrisy on both sides, which is a good segue to gerrymandering. i think more than campaign finance or anything else, i think gerrymandering is the biggest political reform or one of the two that would be most important to do. republicans did it fairly well in a bunch of places. democrats did in new york and ellen neu -- illinois. usually, if they have a chance, they will unless there is a compelling reason not to. one reason they did better in

redistricting than expected is there were a bunch of states where it republicans through the line 10 years ago, they decided to shore up weaker districts instead of trying to grab every additional when they possibly can. if i could wave a magic wand, i would have every state do it exactly the way iowa does. i think that is the textbook way that it should be done. the other political reform. i would go to district-based counting on presidential. the whole country do like nebraska and maine. if you win the congressional district, you get that elector. and then, whoever carries the state. we will not get rid of the electoral college. but at the same time, it does bother people when one side wins more votes than the other.

this would be a better way to do it. in terms of trump, i think this election is going to be more about president biden than president trump. if it is about president trump, that will not be a good outcome for republicans. i would say to the caller that you feel passionately about this. as a democrat, you should. you should do everything you can to get people like you to turn out. nbc news combined their january and march surveys and found it was 46% each. normally, democrats have a natural edge. even is not a good place. when they asked people 1-10 how much interest you have in this election, of the people who said 9 and 10's, the most likely

voters, republicans had the lead. i would say to that caller that you need to find a lot more people like you and make sure they vote since you feel as passionate as you do. you need to get the enthusiasm level up for democrats up to the point where it is for republicans. host: there are many primaries coming up in may. which ones are you watching? guest: oh, gosh. north carolina, ohio, pennsylvania is coming up. we have a whole bunch. i think we will be watching the ohio senate primary. and the pennsylvania senate on the republican side or both sides. i don't think democrats are going to get their best candidate in pennsylvania. i think lieutenant governor federman is more likely to win the nomination. i am not sure he would be the

strongest candidate. the ohio republican primary. it is like a dumpster fire. who knows what will come out of it? north carolina, i think the weaker republican will probably win the republican primary in north carolina. but i think given this environment, even the weaker republican is more likely to win the general election. host: let's look specifically at ohio. i want to show an add from j.d. vance. here is his add touting his endorsement from former president trump. [video clip] >> donald trump has officially endorsed j.d. vance. he will continue trump's fight to protect our borders and stop joe biden. president trump's endorsed

america first conservative. >> trump fought back and so have i. now, i will take our fight to the u.s. senate. host: he had a rally with president trump last night. did that tipped the needle in j.d. vance's way in the primary? guest: because it is such a big primary field, something like former president trump jumping in is a huge boost. just as sure as the sun is going to come up in the east tomorrow, you will see ads of vance back in 2016 attacking donald trump. trying to say he is not trumpian enough, you will see other republicans running ads like that. it is trying to tap down the trump people on his behalf.

it is such a big primary. he was not doing well before. i think it will probably be a pretty big boost. host: senator mitch mcconnell of kentucky has recently warned the gop takeover of the senate is at risk if the party nominates what he calls unacceptable candidates. what is mitch mcconnell worried about? guest: back in 2010, the obama midterm election, and the tea party movement was really coming-of-age, and you had this fabulous year for republicans, and yet, they lost two key u.s. senate races in delaware and nevada because republican primary voters nominated exotic and potentially problematic candidates. republicans had a great year but they were short of a majority because of who they nominated in

those two states. two years later in 2012, it happened again. indiana, missouri. again, they came up short of a majority because they nominated candidates who had kind of unusual views. if you nominate the wrong person, it can make a difference even in a great environment. i think that is what senator mcconnell is interested in. you can love him, you can hate him, but there is no gauze. he is a very clear-eyed person. if you are a republican voter, you are curious, who is the most electable candidate? i would look and see which way mcconnell's super pac, the senate leadership fund, that

would be a good tipoff on who they think would be there strongest candidate. host: let's go back to our phone lines and talk to gary calling from jacksonville, florida, on the democrat line. good morning. caller: good morning. it also happened in 2020 in georgia. no message got through to the people. i called about mccarthy and his cowardice behind the scenes, how he complained about donald trump and his actions led to the insurrection in 2020, january 6 of 2021. just the cowardice. they censored adam kinzinger and liz cheney because they had the guts to stand up against trump. what he did was absolutely wrong and unconstitutional. there is no republican backbone among the leaders. thank you. guest: to me, the reaction

various elected republican officials had in a week or two afterwards was like a truth serum. lots of them said what they thought. but when they started seeing their base was not reacting in that way, you saw some of them jump back in and start currying favor with then president trump. you saw others that would quiet down and decided to keep it to themselves. liz cheney sort of kept it up. you look at mccarthy and mcconnell where mcconnell has not spoken to donald trump since that day.

mccarthy said critical things about president trump after january 6 paid when he realized the base did not react that way, he comes back into the trump column. mcconnell basically decided not to yell as loudly and be as critical as he was. liz cheney showed the acorn does not fall for far from the tree. she is not going to run from a fight. you can agree or disagree with her, but she is just like her dad. host: quickly, democrats or republicans take the senate? guest: i think both the house and senate are going republican. what ought to scare the heck out of democrats is let's say republicans have a 52-48 majority, you go into 2024, there are 23 democratic seats up, 10 republican seats. what is worse for democrats is there are seven democratic senate seats up in states donald

trump carried in 2016 or 2020. there is not a single republican seat up that hillary clinton or joe biden carried. whatever bad happens to democrats this november could be compounded in 2024. there's never a good time to have a bad election. this is a bad time to have about election. host: we would like to think charlie cook of the cook political report and national journal for coming on with us this morning discussion campaign >> c-span's "washington journal," every day we take your calls live on the air, on the news of the day, and we discuss policy issues that impact you. coming up monday morning, ebony make morris with american

urban radio network and discussing the week ahead in washington. will look at the biden administration's national drug control policy with the drug policy researcher for the rand corporation. watch washington journal live at 7:00 eastern monday morning on c-span, or c-span now, our free mobile app. join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, text messages, and tweets. >> on saturday, trevor noah headlines the first white house correspondents association dinner since 2019. president biden is also expected to attend, making it the first time since 2016 that a sitting president has made an appearance. our coverage begins at 8:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. we will have sights and sounds from inside the ballroom and highlights from past dinners ahead of the speaking program. coverage on c-span.org and the c-span now out begins live at

6:00 p.m. where you can watch guests and celebrities walk the red carpet. live saturday on c-span, c-span radio, c-span.org, and on the c-span now video app. susan: talking about the publication date of your new book, "the right." tell me about this project. matthew: i always had an interesting old journalism. when i