c-span brings you when unfiltered view of government. our newsletter word for word recaps the day for you from the halls of congress to daily press briefings to remarks from the president. scan the qr code at the right bottom to sign up for this email and stay up-to-date on everything happening in washington each day. subscribe today using the qr code, or visit c-span.org/connect to subscribe anytime. journal" continues. host: joining us is larry sabatino, the founder and editor-in-chief of sabato's krystal ball. thank you for your time. we are talking a lot about the midterm elections. where do you see things going? guest: until several recent

developments i think just about everybody thought a fairly sizable republican wave was building for november. that may still turn out to be true. we have had curveballs. the horrible mass shootings that have taken place. even with the very modest gun safety bill that passed congress and the president biden signed before july 4, it is clear people are still outraged, puzzled, frustrated this problem continues when no other country on earth has this kind of situation, certainly no industrial democracy. and the overturning of roe v. wade and the supreme court in the dobbs decision. this will be an earthquake. it will have an effect, not on every race, i do not think it will affect races in the deeply red states, but the purple

states, absolutely it is having an impact. certainly in states that are normally democratic. these things may work to the democrats benefit. i hate bringing politics into mass shootings. they should simply be denounced and we ought to mourn the victims. i am here to discuss politics and that is why we are mentioning that dimension. for those -- host: for those who vote in november, how much of that is a sway versus matters of the economy which republicans say people care more about than the ones you have listed? guest: there is no question. the reason the republican wave is building is not just because it is a midterm election. it is true the opposition party almost always does badly in midterm elections. the question is how badly. that is where these new issues come in.

potentially balancing inflation, rising food prices, rising gas prices, and other things that relate to the economy, many economists are debating whether we are in a recession or maybe going in one, others will have to tell you whether we are in a recession. you have to weigh those. you look at the scales and uad issues that help the republicans and the democrats. this is a big shock. republicans will tell you inflation, gas prices, and food prices matter a lot more than gun control and abortion rights. democrats will tell you abortion rights and gun control give them a shot of minimizing losses in the house and potentially holding the senate by some margin, maybe even what it is right now. host: larry sabato joining us until the 10:00 hour.

if you want to ask him questions, (202) 748-8000 free democrats, (202) 748-8001 for republicans, (202) 748-8002 for independents. host: your ratings are updated in june on the senate races. you highlight four tossup's. can you break those down for us. guest: it is important to note, i will tell you how they appear to be leaning today. we need to remember it is early july. if i could diverge very briefly to a historical example, the first midterm iver paid attention to was president kennedy's only midterm in 1962. even though kennedy was still relatively popular in the 1950's and occasionally in the 1960's before that election, republicans were still expected to do reasonably well in the midterms. richard nixon had a pretty decent chance to win the

california governorship that year. then something happened. right in the middle of october. it was called the cuban missile crisis. it did not resolve until shortly before the midterm election day. back then almost nobody voted absentee. everybody voted on election day. united states was seen as the victor in the cuban missile crisis. the soviet union blinked. the democrats ended up having a wash in congress, a wash in the house and the senate and they did reasonably well in gubernatorial elections, including the defeat of richard nixon. we all know he came back but that was a terrible setback for him. my point is you cannot bring down the curtain on an election before it is over. everybody tries to do that almost every day and i refuse to do it because i too old to do

it. as far as this november, voting starts in late september in a number of states and goes through the november election, i would say in those senate races right now, they are very close, and i think they could go either way. if you're looking for the current front runner, current front runner, then it would be democrats in pennsylvania and georgia and nevada is unclear. maybe the abortion rights issue helps the incumbent democrat there. arizona, probably the democrat has a slightly. in those four states the democrats are doing reasonably well. that is a gain of one. if they actually carried all four democrats would potentially gain a seat and they would have

absolute majority. they would not always did the vice president to break the tie, although as we know well there are two democrats who often do not vote with the other democrats. senator manchin from west virginia and senator sinema from arizona. that is where those four races stand. those are tossup's. there are others close to tossup's. wisconsin is leading to the republican, but you have to wait and see who the democrats nominate. we do not know how that primary will turn out. we do not know how united or divided democrats will be. new hampshire will be another one where there is an incumbent democratic senator who otherwise might have been in deep trouble. may still lose, but right now is ahead because of the abortion rights issue. these things are fluid. this is something people do not seem to understand. they think in the spring or the

summer of a midterm year you can predict what will happen. host: of the four you mentioned, which interests you the most? guest: everybody is looking at pennsylvania for obvious reasons. that is a republican seat that could go democratic. you have a republican nominee who democrats say is not a resident of pennsylvania, actually lives in new jersey. that is dr. oz. the democrats nominated a candidate, i do not want to diss him in the slightest, he had a stroke before the primary. it is obvious it was more serious than the campaign admitted. we still have not seen the candidate out on the campaign trail.

they keep saying he will appear in july, so i guess yes another 20 or 25 days to appear. there are two candidates who are damaged and we will see what happens. the gubernatorial race is leaning democratic, maybe that is helping in the senate race. if i do pick one i would pick georgia because senator raphael warnock was elected just two years ago, one of those two democratic seats in georgia that were elected in the special election in early january, the day before the insurrection on capitol hill. they both went democratic in georgia after biden carried georgia narrowly and they turn the senate very slightly blue. the vice president is on the road right now to breaking the all-time tie-breaking record for vice presidents. she will probably do that by the end of the year. those two seeds mattered enormously.

senator warnock right now is ahead. a lot of people thought georgia would bounce back in a republican year, and maybe they still will, but in the senate race herschel walker, the republican nominee, well-known football star, has had some problems. i do not intend to go into individual scandals, i'm trying to avoid that, at least for this program. herschel walker is not as strong as some had expected him to be. he has been pushed throughout by former president trump. senate minority leader mitch mcconnell has severe doubts about him and did not want him to be the nominee, though he eventually came around, probably because he accepted reality. this may be a republican tied in georgia, but it may not be enough to pull herschel walker across.

we will see what happens. host: this is carol in new york, democrats line. go ahead. good morning. caller: good morning. i would like to ask a question about new york state. claudia tenney is my representative in congress. she is in the center of the current 22nd district at the western edge of the new 19th. it is about the 19th i would like to ask a question, specifically how does he rate the democratic candidate to be, i will let him choose either one , compared to the republican, and i would also like to ask about his take on the gubernatorial election in new york. thank you very much. guest: the gubernatorial

election, at least right now, appears to be leaning substantially to the new governor of new york, kathy hochul, who is the democratic nominee. it will be a big surprise if she does not maintain that lead and if she is not elected to a four year term of her own. the republican is a well-known republican congressman who won the republican nomination going away, but even in a republican year it is difficult for a republican to win statewide in new york. that appears to be holding true in the gubernatorial contest. in the house race, i guess he was asking about claudia tenney. her district is leaning republican. she is favored for reelection. we have to see what develops.

this is very early in the house races, shortly after the new york primary. host: allen in mississippi, republican line. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i would like to comment on the insurrection on january 6. the main question is -- nobody asks the reason why it happened. i would like to comment and say the reason it happened was that people are absolutely fed up with the corruption of the government that are in power at the moment. how can the president of the united states after two years become a millionaire?

they all become millionaires, and i would like to say that president trump said in his speech we will march down to the white house peacefully. let me repeat that. host: we got the point. larry sabato, to the impact january 6 impacts voters this november. guest: notice i did not include that in the list of factors because i do not know what they will finally say. i think they have been more groundbreaking than people expected, and some of these earrings have been riveting, including the most recent one featuring cassidy hutchinson. my sense is this committee,

once the final report is released, will have two major effects. first of all, effecting the midterm election, they will not change any republicans mind. it will not change a lot of independent minds, at least the republican leading independence. what it will do is energize democrats to turn out and vote. democrats will use that report to point out that if the republicans take over congress, the voters will be rewarding people who tried to overturn the legitimate results of the 2020 election, which of course joe biden won by 7 million votes and a decent margin in the electoral college. there is no question about it unless you have a partisan filter that does not enable you to see reality and the facts. the second effect january 6 committee will have is on president trump.

we are all familiar with the polls. he leads and all of them. he seems to be the favorite for the republican nomination in 2024. it is so far away. maybe he will get it. i have seen and heard myself and have seen suggestions in certain polling and focus groups that republicans who actually like trump in favor him are turning their eyes elsewhere. they want a nominee who is less controversial and has a better chance to win. let's remember, president trump lost the popular vote substantially in both elections by 3 million in 2016 and by 7 million in 2020. those are facts. if you believe otherwise you need to cut down your online time. you are reading things on the internet that are utterly false.

host: the viewer asks about the current president, joe biden, this is bobby asking will voters blame the president for inflation problems and vote for republicans despite the fact that republicans offer no solutions? guest: my answer is probably. that is our history at least. they're been 19 midterm election since world war ii. in 17 of the 19, the party in power in the white house lost seats in that midterm election in the house. what about the senate? in 13 of the 19 contests, the 19 midterm elections, the party in power in the white house, currently the democrats, lost seats. the senate is not as settled at the house. there is more question in the senate.

those races tend to be idiosyncratic. people get a chance to learn about the candidates like the candidates in pennsylvania. they learn about the individual candidates and some voters, particular independents who do