piece on congressional delegation trips on the impact they have on members work. and i guessed on the state of the u.s. economy and recession concerns. on c-span or c-span now, our free mobile app. join our conversation. "washington journal" continues. host: joining us is larry sabatino, the founder and editor-in-chief of sabato's krystal ball. thank you for your time. we are talking a lot about the midterm elections. where do you see things going? guest: until several recent developments i think just about

everybody thought a fairly sizable republican wave was building for november. that may still turn out to be true. we have had curveballs. the horrible mass shootings that have taken place. even with the very modest gun safety bill that passed congress and the president biden signed before july 4, it is clear people are still outraged, puzzled, frustrated this problem continues when no other country on earth has this kind of situation, certainly no industrial democracy. and the overturning of roe v. wade and the supreme court in the dobbs decision. this will be an earthquake. it will have an effect, not on every race, i do not think it will affect races in the deeply red states, but the purple

states, absolutely it is having an impact. certainly in states that are normally democratic. these things may work to the democrats benefit. i hate bringing politics into mass shootings. they should simply be denounced and we ought to mourn the victims. i am here to discuss politics and that is why we are mentioning that dimension. for those -- host: for those who vote in november, how much of that is a sway versus matters of the economy which republicans say people care more about than the ones you have listed? guest: there is no question. the reason the republican wave is building is not just because it is a midterm election. it is true the opposition party almost always does badly in midterm elections. the question is how badly. that is where these new issues come in. potentially balancing inflation,

rising food prices, rising gas prices, and other things that relate to the economy, many economists are debating whether we are in a recession or maybe going in one, others will have to tell you whether we are in a recession. you have to weigh those. you look at the scales and uad issues that help the republicans and the democrats. this is a big shock. republicans will tell you inflation, gas prices, and food prices matter a lot more than gun control and abortion rights. democrats will tell you abortion rights and gun control give them a shot of minimizing losses in the house and potentially holding the senate by some margin, maybe even what it is right now. host: larry sabato joining us until the 10:00 hour.

if you want to ask him questions, (202) 748-8000 free democrats, (202) 748-8001 for republicans, (202) 748-8002 for independents. host: your ratings are updated in june on the senate races. you highlight four tossup's. can you break those down for us. guest: it is important to note, i will tell you how they appear to be leaning today. we need to remember it is early july. if i could diverge very briefly to a historical example, the first midterm iver paid attention to was president kennedy's only midterm in 1962. even though kennedy was still relatively popular in the 1950's and occasionally in the 1960's before that election, republicans were still expected to do reasonably well in the midterms. richard nixon had a pretty decent chance to win the

california governorship that year. then something happened. right in the middle of october. it was called the cuban missile crisis. it did not resolve until shortly before the midterm election day. back then almost nobody voted absentee. everybody voted on election day. united states was seen as the victor in the cuban missile crisis. the soviet union blinked. the democrats ended up having a wash in congress, a wash in the house and the senate and they did reasonably well in gubernatorial elections, including the defeat of richard nixon. we all know he came back but that was a terrible setback for him. my point is you cannot bring down the curtain on an election before it is over. everybody tries to do that almost every day and i refuse to do it because i too old to do

it. as far as this november, voting starts in late september in a number of states and goes through the november election, i would say in those senate races right now, they are very close, and i think they could go either way. if you're looking for the current front runner, current front runner, then it would be democrats in pennsylvania and georgia and nevada is unclear. maybe the abortion rights issue helps the incumbent democrat there. arizona, probably the democrat has a slightly. in those four states the democrats are doing reasonably well. that is a gain of one. if they actually carried all four democrats would potentially gain a seat and they would have absolute majority.

they would not always did the vice president to break the tie, although as we know well there are two democrats who often do not vote with the other democrats. senator manchin from west virginia and senator sinema from arizona. that is where those four races stand. those are tossup's. there are others close to tossup's. wisconsin is leading to the republican, but you have to wait and see who the democrats nominate. we do not know how that primary will turn out. we do not know how united or divided democrats will be. new hampshire will be another one where there is an incumbent democratic senator who otherwise might have been in deep trouble. may still lose, but right now is ahead because of the abortion rights issue. these things are fluid. this is something people do not seem to understand. they think in the spring or the

summer of a midterm year you can predict what will happen. host: of the four you mentioned, which interests you the most? guest: everybody is looking at pennsylvania for obvious reasons. that is a republican seat that could go democratic. you have a republican nominee who democrats say is not a resident of pennsylvania, actually lives in new jersey. that is dr. oz. the democrats nominated a candidate, i do not want to diss him in the slightest, he had a stroke before the primary. it is obvious it was more serious than the campaign admitted. we still have not seen the candidate out on the campaign trail. they keep saying he will appear in july, so i guess yes another

20 or 25 days to appear. there are two candidates who are damaged and we will see what happens. the gubernatorial race is leaning democratic, maybe that is helping in the senate race. if i do pick one i would pick georgia because senator raphael warnock was elected just two years ago, one of those two democratic seats in georgia that were elected in the special election in early january, the day before the insurrection on capitol hill. they both went democratic in georgia after biden carried georgia narrowly and they turn the senate very slightly blue. the vice president is on the road right now to breaking the all-time tie-breaking record for vice presidents. she will probably do that by the end of the year. those two seeds mattered enormously. senator warnock right now is

ahead. a lot of people thought georgia would bounce back in a republican year, and maybe they still will, but in the senate race herschel walker, the republican nominee, well-known football star, has had some problems. i do not intend to go into individual scandals, i'm trying to avoid that, at least for this program. herschel walker is not as strong as some had expected him to be. he has been pushed throughout by former president trump. senate minority leader mitch mcconnell has severe doubts about him and did not want him to be the nominee, though he eventually came around, probably because he accepted reality. this may be a republican tied in georgia, but it may not be enough to pull herschel walker across. we will see what happens.

host: this is carol in new york, democrats line. go ahead. good morning. caller: good morning. i would like to ask a question about new york state. claudia tenney is my representative in congress. she is in the center of the current 22nd district at the western edge of the new 19th. it is about the 19th i would like to ask a question, specifically how does he rate the democratic candidate to be, i will let him choose either one , compared to the republican, and i would also like to ask about his take on the gubernatorial election in new york. thank you very much. guest: the gubernatorial

election, at least right now, appears to be leaning substantially to the new governor of new york, kathy hochul, who is the democratic nominee. it will be a big surprise if she does not maintain that lead and if she is not elected to a four year term of her own. the republican is a well-known republican congressman who won the republican nomination going away, but even in a republican year it is difficult for a republican to win statewide in new york. that appears to be holding true in the gubernatorial contest. in the house race, i guess he was asking about claudia tenney. her district is leaning republican. she is favored for reelection. we have to see what develops. this is very early in the house

races, shortly after the new york primary. host: allen in mississippi, republican line. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i would like to comment on the insurrection on january 6. the main question is -- nobody asks the reason why it happened. i would like to comment and say the reason it happened was that people are absolutely fed up with the corruption of the government that are in power at the moment. how can the president of the united states after two years become a millionaire? they all become millionaires,

and i would like to say that president trump said in his speech we will march down to the white house peacefully. let me repeat that. host: we got the point. larry sabato, to the impact january 6 impacts voters this november. guest: notice i did not include that in the list of factors because i do not know what they will finally say. i think they have been more groundbreaking than people expected, and some of these earrings have been riveting, including the most recent one featuring cassidy hutchinson. my sense is this committee, once the final report is

released, will have two major effects. first of all, effecting the midterm election, they will not change any republicans mind. it will not change a lot of independent minds, at least the republican leading independence. what it will do is energize democrats to turn out and vote. democrats will use that report to point out that if the republicans take over congress, the voters will be rewarding people who tried to overturn the legitimate results of the 2020 election, which of course joe biden won by 7 million votes and a decent margin in the electoral college. there is no question about it unless you have a partisan filter that does not enable you to see reality and the facts. the second effect january 6 committee will have is on president trump. we are all familiar with the

polls. he leads and all of them. he seems to be the favorite for the republican nomination in 2024. it is so far away. maybe he will get it. i have seen and heard myself and have seen suggestions in certain polling and focus groups that republicans who actually like trump in favor him are turning their eyes elsewhere. they want a nominee who is less controversial and has a better chance to win. let's remember, president trump lost the popular vote substantially in both elections by 3 million in 2016 and by 7 million in 2020. those are facts. if you believe otherwise you need to cut down your online time. you are reading things on the internet that are utterly false. host: the viewer asks about the

current president, joe biden, this is bobby asking will voters blame the president for inflation problems and vote for republicans despite the fact that republicans offer no solutions? guest: my answer is probably. that is our history at least. they're been 19 midterm election since world war ii. in 17 of the 19, the party in power in the white house lost seats in that midterm election in the house. what about the senate? in 13 of the 19 contests, the 19 midterm elections, the party in power in the white house, currently the democrats, lost seats. the senate is not as settled at the house. there is more question in the senate. those races tend to be idiosyncratic.

people get a chance to learn about the candidates like the candidates in pennsylvania. they learn about the individual candidates and some voters, particular independents who do not lean strongly in either direction can be affected, the turnouts of democrats versus republicans can be affected. long story short, it will be a surprise if voters do not blame president biden for the inflation rate, whatever it turns out to be by then. probably it will still be high. they will probably blame him for food prices. and gas prices. and any other economic problems. is that fair? i have told students and others for my 50 plus year career, if you are looking for fairness, don't go anywhere near politics. there is no fairness in politics.

that has nothing to do with politics. it may not be fair but that is what voters in general will do. i do not think democrats will but it could lower their turnout. if they are disillusioned and paid ridiculously high prices for gas and food, maybe they do not turn out the same rate. you have to look at the issues that are favoring democrats. it is a complicated process. that is why various models of elections are fascinating. i love to read them and thinking about them and we publish a lot of them in the crystal ball. but they are flawed, as we all are. host: the crystal ball, by the way, senator -- centerforpolitics.org. in louisiana, this is debbie, independent line. caller: this is debbie speaking.

host: you are on, go ahead. caller: i am calling as an independent bank in louisiana. john kennedy is up for reelection and i am in such chaos in the state. many people i speak to our republicans. you cannot change their mind, you cannot make them look at anything other than fox or newsmax. you cannot give them an opinion to even open up a dialogue. as an independent i cannot vote in the primary. my question is what can i do as an independent voter that wants you to look logically at what we have in front of us? john kennedy is not a friend of this state. he is a trump 100% supporter. he follows the guidelines. the republican thoughts, not the

thought of the states. help me figure a way we can alert others in this situation to try to find a way to be in the primaries as independents. ideal at a loss. i feel like i am not counted. i am tempted to change registration to republican so i can vote john kennedy out. host: we got the gist, thank you for the question. guest: i do not think debbie likes senator john kennedy. that is my evaluation. i hear this frustration a lot in states that are very strongly leading to just one party, although it should be noted louisiana has a two term democratic governor. he did not win by much either time, but he won. states can switch parties temporarily, and particularly for the governorship, because that is seen as a more

down-to-earth pothole filling position, if you will. it is all about the services. as the saying goes there is no democratic or republican way to fill a pothole. that may be minimizing governors and i apologize to the governors. back to john kennedy. he is heavily favored for reelection. could there be an upset? there are upsets all the time. i am always open to upsets. i do not think it will happen. what can you do? you can do what you suggested, and people do this in other states. there are a lot of democrats in wyoming who will change party to vote for liz cheney in the republican primary to thank her for what she is doing on the january 6 committee. that may not be enough to save her in the primary, which is tantamount to election in

wyoming, just like the republican primary for senate this year at least in louisiana is tantamount to election, probably. you could always work for the democratic candidate or you can support a third-party candidate or you can write in somebody. you can give money, you can volunteer time and go door-to-door. you could always do things and should do things as an active american citizen. i know it is frustrating. if it is any consolation, 35 to 40 states are not one party but substantially one party, that is a shame. i think two party competition is a good thing. i would like all candidates to be insecure about whether they can win reelection. it makes them more responsive. there is less corruption when that happens because they are on their keys and cues -- they are

on their p's and q's. most of us could list 35 to 40 states and how they will go in the 2024 presidential election and we do not know who the nominees will be. that is the reality of american politics. host: looking at how selections, crystal ball has six tossup republican races. looking at the democrats, 21 tossup races, 17 leading democratic and lightly democratic -- and likely democratic 21. as far as where the house stands, your thoughts? guest: the house is clearly leading republican and probably will go more substantially republican. a net of five has to switch from democrat to republican for the republicans to take over the house. they will have to try extremely

hard not to win at least five seats. they are very likely to get multiples of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25. pick a number. my terrific house editor kyle conduct -- kyle kondik keeps up with the races. we change events. sometimes there is a scandal, a candidate has to withdraw, you need to keep up with the crystal ball, we come out once, twice, or three times a week. and by the way it is free. we do not charge the way other prognostication groups to. i am not criticizing them. they have every right to make a profit and pay for what they are doing. we are a state university and proud to be a state university and we are into public service and we provide this as a public service for free. just google sabato's crystal

ball, give us any email, and you will start getting these emails and we do not give the emails to anybody for solicitation purposes. if you're going to bet, you would obviously bet now the republicans would take the house , and probably by a substantial margin. conditions can change. they would have to change radically for the democrats to keep control of the house. they could change. host: let's hear from michigan. democrats line. caller: how's it going? my question was kind of brought up two calls ago but i have narrowed it down a little bit. for those of us that are not truck in the trump -- not stop in the trump -- not stuck in the trump called and have been trying to keep up and trump may well be indicted.

do think that may dissuade democrats coming out because they see an indictment and they think things are handled, or do you see more republicans that were standing by wanting to get more into voting for their candidate? i'm sure somebody will come out in their campaign talking about they will free trump and yada yada yada, politics. thank you. guest: trump comes up a lot. for my lifetime, a former president in politics seems to be mentioned more than the incumbent president. that is both good and bad, because we know why he is mentioned. i do not know whether he will be indicted for anything by anybody. the january 6 committee is collecting a lot of evidence but it will be up to the justice department to pursue criminal charges against trump and anybody else, whether they will do so is anybody's guess.

what effect that will have politically depends on what he is indicted for. i want to say, and it is important to note, there are tens of thousands of people indicted for various crimes every year. some fraction are convicted, but only a fraction. most people who are indicted end up plea-bargaining or being found not guilty. you need to keep that in mind. indictment is not conviction. we will have to see whether trump and associates are indicted and for what. it could anger republicans and they could have an enormous turnout, or it could anger democrats and they could have an enormous turnout. it could anger both of them and we could have a stupendous turnout. all of that is possible. i do not think it would turn off any voters from voting. they might be ackley -- they might be angry but they are much

more likely to vote in that circumstance. if a voter is feeling love, hope, hate, or fear, then that person is likely to cast a ballot. those are the rules, that is the way it works out. host: david, south carolina, republican line. caller: good show. i will try to make three quick points. the independent who called exemplifies why she cannot engage with republicans and she did it on the phone. almost always democrats cast aspersions in personal attacks on republicans where republicans wish to debate issues. number two, i am tired of hearing about a president using a popular vote. they campaign based on the election system. if we had a popular vote, candidates would campaign for the popular vote. they would appeal to people who live in major metropolitan areas

as the democrats do. that is not how they are elected. i am tired of curing about presidents losing the popular vote it or maybe not legitimate because that is how they campaign. when the rules change you campaign accordingly. number three, i want to demonstrate how illegal immigrants telephoto entire red states. they do it by the representation -- illegal immigrants outvote entire red states. they do it by representation in congress. they do it by the senses and article one. the house members that represent them outvote entire blue states. this probably should change. host: you got your points out. thank you very much. guest: i will plead age because i will undoubtably forget one of the three. let me focus on two. one i will agree with the gentleman, the other i will disagree.

i agree about his point concerning the electoral college. it is certainly true the electoral college produces certain strategies and presidential campaigns that could have substantial effects on the popular vote. i still remember george w. bush, after the 2000 election, when he lost the popular vote by what seemed to be a large number back then, but pales by comparison to today, i think he lost it by 500,000, almost 600,000 votes. he said if i had known that mattered, that i would've spent a lot of money getting out the vote in texas. i knew i would win in texas, i did not spend money, i would've produced a bigger republican vote that got me what i needed to win the popular vote. that argument has validity and that our system, whether you like it or not, i have criticisms, relies on electoral college.

i think he made a legitimate point. i do not think it is illegitimate to the popular vote because those are actual votes. they matter a lot more than polls. those are actual votes of real people. they are real people. this is not fraudulent. the other one about negative campaigning, i cannot disagree with you more. both parties engage in negative campaigning and character assassination until the cows come home. i do not know what you been watching, and i cannot speak specifically to your congressional congress -- contest in your district. nationally both parties are as guilty as sin. host: we talk about george's senate race. can you take a few minutes to give your thoughts on georgia's governors race? guest: that is fascinating

because normally in a very partisan age, and we are in a very partisan age, polarized eire, when a party does well at the top of the ticket it tends to carry down the ticket. it goes from the white house to the courthouse. people would end up voting for the same party. there are exceptions. they tend to happen more in nonpresidential years than they have been in presidential years. this is a nonpresidential year. you will have some mixing and matching across the country. you may get a democratic governor and republican senator. you may get a republican senator and a democratic governor. in georgia, right now the governor, who of course was strongly opposed by president in his primary, he won the primary going away. he was boosted by that.

even though he won by a sliver four years ago against the same candidate, stacey abrams, that was a good year for democrats. 2018 was a good year for democrats. this one looks like is going to be a republican year, but how republican? i would say brian kemp is favored at the moment. not heavily favored. we haven't leading to him. sometimes -- we have it leading to him. the senate race is leaning democratic. maybe we will go back to vote in the same party from white house to courthouse this fall and that could happen easily in georgia as it happened with the two senate races, that both went democratic in january 2021. right now you have a republican for governor in georgia and a democrat leading for u.s. senate in georgia. host: let's hear from jeanette in maryland, independent line.

caller: i am a first time caller and debbie's remarks from the independent line registered with me because in maryland i do not vote for anybody in the primary outside of the board of elections. i think more independents are becoming disenfranchised in the primaries. in ohio you can walk in and ask for one ballot or the other. i feel like the political system is becoming polarized similar to our economic system where you get more of the wealth distributed between the polar opposites within the two parties , and the two party system has served america pretty well 30 years ago. as more and more people are polarized, the independent section and voting across the aisle has disappeared. very few people will stand for

ethically right decisions rather than following the party line. i have to really admire the lady who is heading up the republican on the january 6 committee, and mike pence. i would vote for both of those people for president, liz cheney is the person i think of. i am a democrat leading -- i'm a democrat leading independent -- i am a democrat leaning independent and i would vote across the line for either of those because they stand for their principles. you see this political field coming to a head so in the end it will fraction our system into a three party system where people who are in the middle-of-the-road on certain things, or like some things economically or something socially, you think that will

ever raise to ahead to fracture our system? host: that is jeanette in maryland. thank you very much. guest: she gave me an out. she said you think it will ever happen? i say yes. i hope millennia. despite all of the talk about the united states breaking up up and we hope that never happens. i can see a third party becoming more important. they have been quite important. the most recent was ross perot. he got 19% of the vote in 1992 and 7% or so in 1996. it had an impact. teddy roosevelt is the only independent who got a higher percentage of the vote then ross perot.

he got 21% in 1912. it can happen. i would answer it that way. in the long span of time i have been following politics and talking about it, i get this question frequently. we have never had a third party develop with any staying power. the bull moose faded, the progressives that succeeded the bull moose faded, the socialists faded, george wallace's party faded, ross perot's party faded. it is not easy to set up a third party and haven't work. i want to add one note. you brought up a subject about party registration. in 29 states you have to register by party, plus the district of columbia. there you are more or less stuck to the party registered in unless state law specifically says anybody can vote in any of the primaries.

the other 21 states, and virginia is one of them, does not register by party. i like to say in virginia we are all independents. do not register as a republican or democrat or a green or libertarian and you can go vote in whatever party primary wish this year and switch next year and switch again the following year. we have elections each year in an off year election system. there are ways for you to do this. you have to lobby your governor and legislature to do away with party legislation. there is a split. 29 versus 21. that is an opportunity for people if they want to pursue the option of voting in either party's primary in a given year. host: let's hear from arkansas, cindy, republican line. caller: hello. i am a first time caller and i

need to make a comment on liz cheney and the january 6 committee. i feel like she is a disgrace to our country, not only republicans but democrats and our whole country because i think she is an angry person and she hates donald trump so much. i think it is more personal than political. all she is doing with this is to try to keep them from running again, and 70 people can see that. -- and so many people can see that. she has ruined her whole career. the lady before me said she would be her person. i cannot see how that would happen. joe biden is one of the biggest dividers. he said he was going to bring everybody together. all he has done is divide our country and he puts blame on everyone else for every single thing he has done wrong. the whole biden administration

is a disgrace and a complete failure to our country. i am so happy that we have, i thank god we have newsmax and fox news as the only truth out there that we have that we can get the right information. host: cindy, we will stop you there. she did mention liz cheney's race against her likely challenger. you see liz cheney winning reelection? guest: is going to be very difficult for her to win. she would be the first to acknowledge that. that is a 70% plus trump state. this is a republican primary so the overwhelming percentage of people voting, even with the option of changing a registration on election day, the overwhelming majority of people voting will be republicans, therefore people who voted for trump twice. she knows the odds and she is

doing what she thinks is right. i am not going to start an argument with the lady about what her motivations are. she has said the motivation is she believes donald trump should never again even visit the oval office, much less residethat is. she believes he violated constitutional principles, not to mention american traditions, when he was president. that is her right. she's an elected official at least until the new congress takes over in early 2023. so as far as that race goes, i've got to say this, one of the first books that i ever read in the 1950's was profiles encourage by john f. kennedy and ted sorensen. i think some of the stories were exaggerated a bit and maybe

one-sided, but i admire, and i think millions of other people admired the idea that there are people of courage and politics who are willing to sacrifice their own seats to do what they think is the right thing. maybe it is the wrong thing, but they are acting on their principles and beliefs. that is something we should admire, even if we disagree strongly with someone, whether it be liz cheney or some democrat like joe manchin would be an example. if they are doing what they think is right, and they define right, that is worth a bit of admiration. host: let's try to squeeze in one more call. joseph in texas, democrats line. caller: good morning to both of you. what was your best year you ever had in particular? and what tools do you use for your assessment? is astrology one of those tools? thank you very much to both of

you. guest: well, i don't use astrology. nancy reagan used astrology, and you could understand after president reagan was nearly killed by an assassin who was just released in full, she consulted an astrologer even about her husband's schedule. she had every right to do it. i don't happen to believe in astrology. other people do. i don't want to get into an argument about astrology, so no, we don't use astrology. we have had a pretty consistent record of picking elections well , with the exception of donald trump in 2016, for which we had loads of company. you may have noticed that. every prognostication agency i am the mill you're with thought hillary clinton was going to defeat donald trump. so with the exception of 2016, we have had a very high

percentage. we keep all of that on our website. the crystal ball, center for politics, so that people can see where we were right, where we were wrong. it is part of the record. and by the way, it doesn't matter. prognostication is interesting, and we use it because this center is dedicated to civic education. we use it as a hook to get people interested and involved in politics. that is why we predict elections. it is not because it is important. everyone is going to know the result on election day. well, usually on election day. host: the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia joining us for this conversation. as always, thanks for your time. guest: i enjoyed it very much, and they were very good questions.

announcer: thursday morning, the ceo of physicians for reproductive health discusses maternal health care after the supreme court overturning roe v. wade. andrew desa dario talks about his piece on congressional delegation trips and the impact they have on member's work. luber news reporter read figure on the u.s. economy and recession concerns. watch washington journal live at 7:00 eastern thursday morning on c-span, or c-span now. our free mobile app. join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, text messages and tweets. announcer: c-span now is a free mobile app featuring your unfiltered view on what's happening in washington. live and on-demand, keep up with

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announcer: during this morning's prime minister's questions, labour party leader starbird accused prime minister boris johnson of knowing about inappropriate behavior by his deputy chief whip but promoted him anyway. in response, the prime minister said he removed the colleague from officer after he became aware of the allegations. esther johnson's appearance came after a handful of government ministers resigned in protest over his leadership after a series of controversies including parties at 10 downing street during covid lockdowns. at the end of the session, the british health secretary read a personal statement on his decision to step down. this runs about 50 minutes. >> before we come to prime minister's questions i would like to point out that the reddish sign language interpretation is available on live tv. >>