tackle climate change. bloomberg congressional reporter eric wasserman will join us to talk about that. also reporter david wasserman will join us on political races around the country. we invite you to join the conversation with your phone calls, text, and tweets. ♪ host: it is friday, august 12, 2022. yesterday attorney general merrick garland defended the fbi search of former president trump's mar-a-lago estate. he also revealed in light of the intense public interest in the case he wants to unseal the warrant. last night president trump says he also once a warrant released. we are getting your thoughts on all of this on phone line split by political party.

(202) 748-8001 for republicans, (202) 748-8000 free democrats, (202) 748-8002 for independents. you can also send us a text at (202) 748-8003. if you do please include your name and where you are from. otherwise catch up with us on social media at [video clip] -- at @cspanwj or c-span wj -- four facebook. the attorney general took no questions from the reporters present. here is that statement in its entirety. [video clip] >> since i became attorney general i've made clear the department of justice will speak through its court filings and its work. the justice department has filed a motion in the southern district of florida to unseal a search warrant and property

receipt relating to a court-approved search the fbi conducted earlier this week. that search was on premises located in florida belonging to the former president. the department did not make any public statements on the day of the search. the former president publicly confirmed the search that the, as is his right. copies of both the warrant and the fbi property receipt were provided on the day of the search to the former president's counsel, who was on-site during the search. the search warrant was authorized by a federal court upon the required findings of probable cause. the property receipt is a document federal law requires law enforcement agents to leave with the property owner. the department filed the motion to make public the warrant and receipt in light of the former president's public confirmation of the search, the surrounding circumstances, and the

substantial public interest in this matter. faithful adherence to the rule of law is the bedrock principle of the justice department and our democracy. upholding the rule of law means applying the law evenly, without fear or favor. under my watch, that is precisely what the justice department is doing. all americans are entitled to the evenhanded application of the law, the due process of the law, the presumption of innocence. much of our work is by necessity conducted out of the public eye. we do that to protect the constitutional rights of all americans and to protect the integrity of our investigations. federal law, long-standing department rules, and our ethical obligations, prevent me from providing further details as to the basis of the search at

this time. there are certain points i want you to know. first, i personally approved the decision to seek a search warrant in this matter. second, the department does not take such decision lightly. where possible, it is standard practice to seek less intrusive means as an alternative to a search and to narrowly scope any search that is undertaken. third. let me address recent unfounded attacks on the professionalism of the fbi and justice department agents and prosecutors. i will not stand by silently when their integrity is unfairly attacked. the men and women of the fbi and the justice department are dedicated, patriotic public servants. every day they protect the american people from violent crime, terrorism, and other

threats to their safety while safeguarding our civil rights. they do so at great personal sacrifice and risk to themselves. i am honored to work alongside them. this is all i can say right now. more information will be made available at the appropriate way and at the appropriate time. thank you all for your questions, but as i said, this is all i can say at this time. host: attorney general merrick garland. that was yesterday at about 4:00 eastern. just before midnight in a series of posts on his truth social social media site from the former president. this is what donald trump had to say. "not only will i not oppose the release of documents related to the un-american unnecessary rate and breaking of my home in palm beach, florida, mar-a-lago.

i am going a step further by encouraging the immediate release of the documents even though they have been drawn up by radical left democrats and possible future political opponents who have a strong and powerful vested interest in attacking me." he went on to post that "michael numbers are the strongest they have ever been. fundraising by the republican party is breaking all records at the midterm elections are fast approaching. this is inappropriate and highly unethical in the world is watching as our country is being brought to a new low, not only on crime and energy and national security, but also with respect to our sacred elections." the former president yesterday try to wrap midnight eastern time. we will likely find out what is in those documents today if in fact both sides want to release that warrant. the washington post with some reporting late yesterday on what

could be in those documents, writing classified documents related to nuclear weapons were among the items fbi agent's thought and that search of the former president's florida residents, that is according to people familiar with the investigation. they say those people who described what the agents were seeking noted they did not offer additional details about what type of information the agents were seeking, including whether the weapons involved belong to the united states or some other nation, nor did they say such documents were recovered in the search. that is the reporting from the washington post, getting a lot of attention. the federal judge involved ordering the justice department in the former president's lawyers to confer and alert the court by 3:00 eastern today about their decisions on this warrant. more news today on that front. right now we are getting a reaction to all of this. our phone line for republicans, (202) 748-8001, democrats, (202)

748-8000, and independence -- and independents, (202) 748-8002 . tom is an independent. you are a first. caller: i feel blessed to be the first one. host: what are your thoughts? caller: my thoughts is merrick garland and the democrats like to wait until the last minute. they wait until after the republicans and the donald trump put out with all kinds of fabrication before they come out and start letting people know what is really going on. i do not understand why people in this country, especially on the republican side, cannot see these people have given their life to this man, they have given up their freedom for this man. whether he is a democrat or

republican, he is a man, and people have given up their freedom or their life for him. i was told everyone who voted for donald trump is not a racist, but everyone who is a racist voted for donald trump. you asked good questions and i hope you have a great weekend. thank you. host: this is jim in south dakota. line for republicans. good morning. caller: how are you doing? thanks for having me. i'm am getting kind of tired of the underhanded nest. why would you attack a president? host: why would you attack your president, keep going. caller: why would you attack the president and what was the reason? i think the doj is corrupt.

and has been. why did we hire 80,000 irs people and ask them to use deadly force? what is that for? you were doing my taxes are looking at my taxes. why do you need a gun? that is ridiculous. host: we talked about that a bit yesterday. a posting from earlier this spring for the law enforcement arm for the irs, that posting well before what this expansion that is expected to be voted on today. the house coming in at 9:00 today to vote on this package, this health and climate package. among the provisions is the expansion of irs enforcement, money for that. that is jim in south dakota. we will talk more about the

inflation reduction act in just a little bit. a shorter time we will be with you because the house coming in at 9:00 as opposed to the usual 10:00 start time to get the jump on this boat today. back to your calls, this is kevin in south carolina, line for democrats, good morning. caller: good morning. can you hear me? host: yes sir. caller: thank you for taking my call and a longtime washington journal supporter. kudos to general garland for his stance in talking about what is going on in the reason why, after giving president trump the opportunity to make light of the matter of what was taken and he did not. you have to look at it. the fbi would not make a move like this if there was not of serious nature. when we are talking about top secret and above, top-secret

stop on an unsecured property where there have been foreign nationals breaking in, on a beach house property, who knows what is in the waters or whatever is out there. why aren't the republicans calling out other breaches of security. mcconnell, mccarthy, jordan. what is going on? you're not saying anything about the breach of national security. in this call -- is it for the troops? -- is it for the truth? if it is standing up for what is true, that is good, but if it is false or false. the former administration is under strong delusion. are you supporting somebody coming in, knocking over your head, and giving your conscience

to someone who is your enemy? that does not make any sense. host: john in texas, republican. good morning. caller: good morning. thanks to c-span. we have to discuss the hate in this country. we have to learn to respect each other again. my dad taught me to each his own. the fact that the progressives are trying to cram this stuff down our throat has to stop. lenin coined the phrase called useful idiot. they will believe anything they say. the fact that the fbi and the department of justice and the whole democratic party has been after trump and his supporters since he came down the stairs is unbelievable. if we do not get back to the rule of law and if hunter biden did not go to jail and if hillary does not go to jail,

this will take us down a path we do not want to go down. it is time to say enough is enough and get on with us. host: john in texas. here is a sense of how this is playing out in the political media. from breitbart, cards on the table is the headline. trump calls the doj to release the search warrant that led to the mar-a-lago rate. this is from red state.com, the headline "merrick garland place chicken in trump responds by slamming on the accelerator." slate, the other side of the political aisle, "merrick garland just took a blow torch to the gop attack on the mar-a-lago raid." one more from the atlantic. "now they are calling for violence" is the headline. "trump loyalists have reacted to the search of the ex-president's residence with unhinged fury."

this is gina out of missouri. good morning. are you with us? host: to southpoint, ohio. independent. good morning. caller: good morning. i think search warrant's are just fine. as simple as that. everybody is a citizen. we do not have royalty in this country. we do have politicians that are supposed to serve. i do not care who you are, homeless, president, we all should have the same laws, the same rights, the same things happen, you get a search warrant, that is the way it goes. these republicans sound like schoolchildren, so-and-so did this, that makes it all right. he took the candy, but my little brother took it too. crazy people.

host: arlene in new orleans, independent. caller: top of the morning to you all. i have two important messages. trump has brought us down to i don't know where. january 6, from the time he started running. the bible said we will have people like this. we have to be prepared. this man is evil and his followers is evil. people used to say show me your company and i will tell you who you are. we try to raise our children to know right from wrong and think for their selves, but do not let nobody change the way you think and your mind. if you know this is true in your heart, not because these people do not like these people and these people do not have this or that, we all have to go one place.

we all have to go one place. we was brought here and we will be taken out of here. host: that is arlene in new orleans. phone lines: as we wrap up -- phone lines as we wrap up all the statements yesterday, the actions surrounding this warrant , the potential release of that warrant sometime this afternoon. phone lines for republicans, (202) 748-8001, democrats, (202) 748-8000, independents, (202) 748-8002. we will step away from that conversation for just a second to focus on the house floor today. a signature package by democrats they are trying to move on health, on taxes, on climate change. that vote set to take place this morning in the house. we are joined by clawson, congressional -- joined by erik

wasson, congressional reporter from bloomberg. a familiar face. walk us through the timing and what democrats are thinking about whether they have the votes to pass this and send this $840 billion deal to the president's desk. guest: $740 billion revenue, spending is more like 437, a big deficit reduction. that accounts for the difference. the houses looking to come in at 9:00 and start debate and they have a vote around 10:00 that sets up the debate. the debate is it to go on until about 2:00 or 3:00. that is unless there are republicans -- we can always call the motion to adjourn for multiple ones. host: how many votes can democrats lose? who are you watching for potential democrats will vote no? guest: there is going to be --

they can only lose four. the house passed a larger version of this bill in november and the only no vote was made. -- was maine. he has been saying on that that he is the only one who stood up to the party. i reached out to jared golden. democrats would like to have unanimous support but he would be the one most likely to vote no. host: the expectation from what i have read is there could be a lot of members who are voting by proxy, who will not be on the floor for today's vote. why at this stage, i know the proxy voting system is originally instituted for health reasons during covid, why are they still voting by proxy? guest: it has become a real convenient crutch for them.

in the middle of their august research people are on congressional delegations abroad spending time with family. 170 members could possibly vote. we see familiar names on the republican side also proxy letters, one of your colleagues will read your vote to make sure it is authentic. we can see 130 members vote by proxy. it is a historically high number , especially on a bill like this. host: if this bill is passed and sent to the president's desk to sign, your take on who the key winners and losers of this particular package would be? guest: it is a win for president biden and chuck schumer. they saw a year of infighting among democrats that would be damaging. i asked nancy pelosi. it could help turnout debate.

the largest climate change package in u.s. history for them is politically motivated. they argue 2005 levels. as far as the changes that were made, there were taxes on the rich that were going to go to the original proposal. those were all taken out, certainly the lobbying campaign exceeded. there are business taxes, a 15% corporate minimum, but there is no longer an exception for accelerated depreciation. there is now an exception for subsidiaries of private equity. it will be hard to enforce that 15% minimum and taxpayers will be finding ways around that. host: before we let you get

started on a busy day, democratic leaders were also hoping for a vote this week on a police funding package. remind us what happened to that. guest: this has been a goal for moderates in the party who are always opposed the idea of defunding the police and view that as a terrible political and policy choice promoted by a handful of members, and to insure themselves against that they want to boost funding for local police departments. there is a compromise with the congressional black caucus to increase accountability measures and ways to crackdown on behavior. it looked now like it would come together. there are still holdouts in the party. they can only lose four votes. the decision was made not to go through with that. it could be looking for a big win where it increases accountability and boosts funding but there are some

progressives who having previously supported defund the police are uncomfortable going forward with a fund the police strategy. host: for our viewers looking for a good way of following the blow-by-blow on capitol hill, i suggest you follow him on twitter @elwasson. erik wasson, bloomberg reporter, thank you for your time. host: back to your phone calls. we are talking about the attorney general merrick garland defending that search on monday of former president trump's florida home and it was the former president last night who said he would not oppose the release of the warrant that federal agents used to enter his home. we will see what happens today. phone lines for republicans, democrats, and independents are on your screen. this is bob in tennessee. republican. good morning. caller: thank you for taking my call. i've a statement about the

washington post article about trump and the highly classified top secret documents with nuclear weapons. he is headed for a year and a half and nobody knew it? -- he has had it for a year and a half and nobody knew it? what congress needs to do -- to find a cure for trump derangement syndrome because half of the country has got it. this is ridiculous. they've been after president trump every day for seven years. these people are crazy. thank you for taking my call. host: bill in midland, michigan. democrat. caller: good morning. i think we have to ask the first question is what does trump have

-- what business does trump have taking any documents to an unsecured place or anywhere other than to make money for himself like he does all the time? look at his fake defense fund where he took in $250 million and who knows where that money went. look at the state college, look at the state foundation, all he does is make money. maybe he plans on selling any documents he has to a foreign agent. he is a crook and always has been a crook. thank you. host: baltimore, maryland. this is many. good morning. caller: good morning. i have to say that trump started out crying, crying about obama -- ic. lock him up.

just like they were hollering about locking hilary up, lock him up. host: montana, republican, good morning. caller: good morning. i have a different take on this. i think the january 6 commission is actually failing and that is why they have to start a new way to get trump. that is what that invasion was for on his private house. host: that is don in montana. here are comments from members of congress yesterday in the wake of merrick garland's comments before reporters defending the fbi and noting the justice department was seeking

to release that warrant. this is senator marsha blackburn. "merrick garland personally approved the search warrant to take down joe biden's top political opponent. this is a clinically motivated witchhunt." congressman jeff -- saying the statement would have far more credibility if he at least a college the recent corruption at the bureau and department responsible for running the public's trust. the public's declining confidence in the fbi and doj has not happen without cause. liz cheney, a member of the jittery six committee, one of the cochairs of that committee, "i have been ashamed to hear members of my party attacking the integrity of the fbi agent involved in the recent mar-a-lago search. these are sickening comments that put the lives of patriotic public servants at risk." does fillmore comments. seth moulton, "if you want to argue trump was correct in

making classified documents, make that case, do not falsely claim that the justice department and the trump appointed fbi director are driving political persecution. conspiracy theories do irreparable harm to democratic institutions. and elaine luria says "any attacks on law enforcement are unacceptable and the attacks are despicable. i strongly condemn the attempted breach of the fbi office in cincinnati and i'm praying for the safety of our officers and agents." referring to the armed man who was killed yesterday after trying to preach that fbi office in cincinnati. the reporting from the washington times noted in the man is believed to have been in washington in the days leading up to the january 6 riot and may have been present at the capital on the day of the attack according to law enforcement officials. the suspect was identified as ricky shiffer, 42 years old.

federal investigators are examining whether he may have had ties to far-right extremist groups, including the power boys -- including the proud boys. shot and killed by a police officer as he fled the scene. shot as he fled the scene and engaged in a standoff in a rural part of the state. ohio state highway patrol. you probably heard about that incident yesterday. that your phone calls. this is mac in maryland, good morning. caller: first of all, for the republicans and don the con, a clear mind, a clear balanced mind is probably the biggest blessing anyone can have, instead of letting fox news censor the information you receive. when don the con comes out with

his preemptive strike, everything is crooked, everything is a woe is me, they are after me. when this thing first hit, the first thing to come out of his mouth other than crying the blues as usual is to send me $45. i would like to challenge all of the republican people, do not just stop at the $45. send them your mortgage, send them your car payments, send your grocery bill. send him your kids college tuition because that is your leader. this is nonsensical and if you think back with a clear mind and see how you really look, you will be ashamed. one last thing for all of you who follow this man in attendees glorified klan rally, one day skip one and see what kind of pressure your peers put on you for not sticking with the cult. guest: gary in virginia.

republican. good morning. caller: it is good to talk to you, i am calling because your first question of the year, why am i a republican? i am a republican because president eisenhower shook my hand. that is the reason i am a republican and i admired his ship of state. it had a plank of common sense. host: how is the ship of state today? how did you feel about the raid on mar-a-lago? caller: like president trump says, what will be will be. the ship of state, the course is the advancement of humanity. there are two problems we have,

common sense and nonsense. that's it. you know what common sense is, you at half of the population take advantage of you and if you don't think any of them will, you obviously didn't know my mother, but host: -- but -- host: michael, new york city, independent, good morning. caller: it is interesting that i always call on the independent line because i feel so disenfranchised with being a republican or a democrat. at this time, it doesn't get us anywhere. from a technological standpoint,

modulation because these calls can divide us further. trump is basically a version of the chinese culture which basically is only one. in coding we have brain capacity and it is split to trump between two things, which is usually the version of himself and a artificial intelligence version of himself. we need to update ourselves. host: deborah, south bend, indiana, republican. caller: this is a conversation i

had with my grandmother. i asked her -- what is it that i could do to get to her. she said don't fear and be afraid of change. it seems like donald trump policies were to change the policies for america. i don't think we were satisfied with the weight things were going. we wanted change. but i think basically we are resistant to change. let they say, you can't teach an old dog new tricks. we need to just look at it from we are changing from 200 years up to the 21st century and we are going into a new era. what are our policies going to

be like? it is not about personality. it is about, are we ready to change? host: do you think this country is ready to change? caller: yes. why do you think there is so much resistance to change? human beings don't like to change. who wants to change when you are comfortable. whether you are miserable and the comforter happy in the comfort. host: from the new york times today, a look at how they describe the years of conflict between president trump and the keepers of u.s. secrets. going back into the early days of the term administration, during an oval office meeting with top russian officials they write, it was the president at the time who yet highly classified information about in

islamic state plot that the government of israel had provided to the united states which put israeli sources at risk and angered intelligence officials. a kremlin agent was pulled out of moscow in part out of concerns that trump's white house was a leaky ship. mr. trump received a briefing about an explosion at a space lunch facility in iran. he was so taken by it he wanted to post it on twitter but aids post -- pushed back saying it would give adversaries insight into the americas sophisticated surveillance capabilities and he posted the photo anyway saying that the united states was involved but wished iran good luck figuring it out. he set i have the authority and i can do anything i want. as we focus on what could be in

the documents fbi officials were looking or, that story from the new york times. joseph in keystone state, independent. caller: good morning. i one thing i would like to say. i am an army veteran and i am really ashamed to say that nowadays the way this world is going. i think we really need to start getting rid of a lot of these career politicians and start having people like mr. trump in. business people seem to do a lot better in the world who have come up from nothing and build themselves up to something. this country, we built ourselves to be a major player. host: after being president for four years, is president trump still not a politician? caller: he wasn't a career

politician. joe biden is. host: this is sylvia, owings, maryland, democrat. caller: i am calling because i would just like to know, everyone is outraged about the secret service doing the search warrant on mr. trump's home. host: fbi doing the search. the secret service where there, the fbi showed them the search warrant. caller: my question is -- where is the outreach for the january 6 right that the capitol that took the lives of people. here we are ranting and raving about a person who really has just a couple of months ago went against the law but has been

going against the law ever since he has been in there. people need to get in and read the history books and see where we are going because he does want to make this an authoritarian country. some of the representatives and congressmen on capitol hill need to be held accountable. they all took an oath to serve and protect this country and they are not doing it. it is all about money. if mr. trump is such a billionaire, why is he always begging? begging for people to give donations to every little cause that comes up. book, you need to wake up. if you think what he is doing is hurting one culture, it is going to affect all of us. you have children and great-grandchildren. if you don't know the history in the constitution, you need to

read. don't let this man fool you. but like couple said before, he is a con man or occult leader. host: plant city, florida, independent. caller: at this stage of the game, if anyone attacks us, they are attacking the people of the united states. what people have to understand is they are manipulated. they are not thinking rationally for their own selves we were taught to think for ourselves. these people are not thinking for themselves. what is going on in america is a dangerous situation because these people have power and they can steal. that is all it is about.

these so-called christians in the bible belt need to be ashamed of themselves. host: cindy, norwalk, connecticut, good morning. caller: i just want to say if somebody does something wrong, they should be held accountable. i am not defending trump. the problem i have with this whole thing is everybody is talking about how trump is such a dictator and authoritarian. he actually is not the small man everyone says he is. his doj could have gone after hillary went in and he said, i am not going to prosecute her and go after her. and he didn't do it. he could have he had a lot more

on her than they have on him. why don't democrats see this? does anyone see that she was in violation and lied, destroyed subpoena evidence? why is that lost on democrats? i just don't understand it. please someone explain that to me. why isn't there a raid on her home? obama had documents that the national archives wanted back. we don't know exactly what they want and i think a lot of this is speculation. let's just wait and see exactly what they were looking for. the idea that they might have planted the something. maybe they did put forth a phony dossier in front of the fisa court to get a warrant. why is that lost on everybody?

host: an earlier caller brought up the "lock her up" chant at rallies. that caller saying it is time to lock him up what did you make of those chance at the time? caller: it was kind of in good fun. we have no since of humor in this country. everybody is all, you did this in you did that. i could say on my side that things on the republican party i don't like. i would like to hear some democrats speak about some of the things their parties are doing, the extremism on their side. do you think i like republicans curbing is crazy abortion. i am pro-life and i don't like late-term abortion. this is different topic, but this is my point.

republicans make a mistake when they say six weeks, and banning the morning-after pill and birth control. i am not afraid to admit it because that is my party. people need to be honest about the crab the party does -- krapp -- crap there country does. host: focusing on the raid and the warrant and what could and could be in it. this is roland scarborough from the washington times. they have always had a target on trump's back, writing that the news that mr. trump was planning a return triumphantly to the white house and a launch of a war on the bureaucratic washington must have rattled the biden political loyalist and mr. garland's justice department. mar-a-lago was designed to find

what they were looking for and he is a sure winner with the d.c. area. the editorial board calling it garland's warrant by sanctioning a mar-a-lago search, they say he has broken a political norm that has stood for 232 years. he better have enough evidence to justify it in the end or have unleashed political forces and a precedent that democrats as much as donald may come to regret. and one more from the washington post, ruth marcus saint merrick garland is no cowboy saying he is the opposite of a cowboy he is more inclined to worry and issue to death and to shoot from the hip, writing he is a stickler for procedure. if anything, his missteps at the department have stuck to -- more

fundamentally, there can be no accusation more unfair than the merrick portland of all people is introducing politics into the justice department. he began there in 1979 as an aid to the then attorney general, helping to write rules adopted in the aftermath of the water -- watergate scandal with contacts that were designed to insulate the apartment. it has been aimed at repairing the damage to the department inflicted during the trump years . you can read more in the washington post. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 for dems. (202) 748-8002 four not independent -- for independents.

next caller, go ahead. caller: i was told a couple days ago that because i did not serve in the military that i am less of an american than somebody who did serve in the military. that bothers me that somebody would say that. this guy is one of these fanatical republicans and i know a lot of veterans watch this show in the morning. i just want to know from all of your listeners if you have a comment. am i less of an american because i did not serve in the military? host: sorry about that interaction. you have any thoughts on the topic we are talking about, the mar-a-lago rate in what has happened since?

caller: there garland said it right. the justice department is doing its job the way it does its job. we have got to wait and see what is going on, whether it is nuclear stuff or whether it is just bs. we have to wait. host: the judge in this case ordered the justice department to confer with lawyers for the former president at 3:00 p.m. today. and we heard from merrick garland yesterday he wants the warrant released. the former president sang he wants the warrant released. we will see what would be in that warrant. the washington post taking a note in their questions about these kinds of warrants to talk about the information that is generally revealed to the public. they talk about the inventory

list that is included in warrants like this. investigators like a list of all of the materials they took from a person or property and when that give a copy of the inventory list to the person whose property they searched or his or her lawyers and file a second copy of the list in court. if agents took classified property, the list would not be very specific. agents would write it up with the assumption that it would eventually become public and not reveal any classified specifics. we don't know if that list will be released and we do not know what is going to happen. the deadline they gave the want of justice in president trump's lawyers. jerry in georgia, republican, you are next. caller: people have to understand that every single president except for george

washington, the only one who didn't get to live in the white house, but before the laws were in place about what they could and couldn't take out of the white house, every single one of them had and was told they had to return certain items fact to the white house. we have to understand that even as of today, we have presidents who are still living that have items and document that have been requested that they should be bringing back to the white house. this is something that has been going on for years and years and years. let's understand that the corruption has reached a level so high, i am talking about the fbi, cia, cdc and then i.s. have all lied it to us and misled us, and in some cases they have killed americans. please be aware this is just the beginning of the new world order and the antichrist movement here

in the united states. caller: bobby, carolina, republican. caller: -- host: bobby, caroline, republican. caller: i called on the democrat line i was a republican and then switched democrat and now i am back to a republican. i have been watching the news and listening to the attorney general has said and russia collusion, they have been looking at him the whole time he was in office and have not convicted him of one thing. i don't know why they keep going

after him. the followers have been called deployable -- deplorable it is not right. everyone on the other side is stirring this stuff up. god knows what is going to happen if it keeps going like this. host: two minnesota, independent , good morning. caller: you partially public levels going to say, but we are going to wait until 3:00 until they open the seals. so we are dealing with facts and

not just he said she said. host: we don't know if it will definitely be unsealed. it could be argument. indications right now are that merrick garland wants them released and donald trump wants warrant released. we will see what happens from there, but go ahead. caller: i am looking forward to the opening to know what is going on. but maybe the truth will set us free, so to speak. host: this is jim in plainfield, illinois, independent. go ahead. caller: i just think there are a lot of people out there who think that trump stole something that we still don't have. i'm just wondering if what was

taken from his home was digital or physical documents and if it is physical, i would think it would be hilarious if he stuck in some things about investigative things with hunter biden and when it comes out they will have to ask about all of the information about hunter biden. i do want to know if it is digital or physical. host: it seems like the washington post has gone the farthest in what could be in these documents saying that these documents were relating to nuclear weapons, not much more than that in the reporting, although they did note the effort to retrieve 15 boxes from former president trump's mar-a-lago property back in the spring, and back in january of

this year. a former senior intelligent official said that those boxes did include information that included intercepted communications including emails of foreign leaders. that is the type of information that could have been included in the 15 boxes back in january. the person included of the inventory it signal intelligence included in them and the precise nature was unclear that is a quote from the washington post. that as ashes as far as the public reporting has gone. this is heather in mississippi, independent. caller: good morning. whatever they of a sleep took,

it had to be important for a federal judge to sign off on it. they want to sit and bring january 6 into this and call it a witch hunt, everybody interviewed on january 6 everybody that was a part of trump's actual team and there were a group of democrats that were there in my think is, white are they believing one person and considering him god and they will have to answer to the real got one day that they treat him like a god and quite he has done nothing wrong and they believe it. they aren't going to believe what anybody says matter what. if they believe one thing he says out of anybody else, i don't understand why they are like this. the country is the way it is because of him doing what he does and spitting out lies.

i don't know what else they can do to make them change their mind on anything. host: this is debbie, flint, michigan, go ahead. caller: typical donald trump, delay, deny, litigate or lie. everything he does can be put into one of those categories. this is a great conversation today. probably the most bizarre thing i heard was the lady that said when they were saying lock up hillary, she said it was all in good fun. i bet the secret service agents think it was all in good fun. we had a guy from michigan call and he is the first person that really talked about donald trump's love of money. you know he was going to do something with these documents to make money. the last paragraph you said about the signals transmission,

i heard on another station that what that is our phone calls and texts that they have the other heads of state. so would he use that to blackmail somebody? you bet he would. host: four much more on the fbi search of the -- for much more on the fbi search of the former president, there will be a press conference with the ranking member of the house intelligence committee at 9:30 a.m. eastern. set to speak about the rate. watch it -- raid. watch it on c-span.org or our app. we are going to be joined by david wasserman, senior at us --

editor of the cook report will talk about camping 2022. we will be right back. ♪ >> book tuesday, every sunday on c-span two features leading authors discussing their latest nonfiction books. emergency room dr. thomas fisher gives insight into providing patient care inside the covid 19 pandemic with his book "the emergency: a year of healing and heartbreak in the chicago er." a war veteran shares about, invisible storm, describing living with ptsd and how his mare for -- on how it affected

his run for mayor. watch anytime at book tv.org. >> over the past few months, the january 6 committee held a series of hearings revealed the findings from its investigation. all week, watch c-span as we look back at the hearings featuring never before seen evidence, depositions, and witness testimony into the attack on the u.s. capitol period monday at 8:00 p.m. eastern, u.s. capitol police officers caroline edwards, who was knocked unconscious during the first breach of rounds, shares her story alongside a filming crew. >> there are a lot of places to

get political information, but only at c-span do you get it straight from the source. no matter where you are from berea stand on the issues, c-span is america's network, unfiltered, unbiased, word for word if it happens here or here or here or anywhere that matters. america is watching on c-span, power by cable. >> washington journal" continues. host: glad to be joined by david wasserman, cook political report editor. let's start the news of the foxhole that came out yesterday finding that 41% of respondents to this poll said they would vote for a republican on the generic ballot.

41 sensing they would vote for a democrat in election 2022. do you want to put -- 41% saying they would vote for a democrat in the election in 2022. guest: we typically see democrats do a little better on this generic ballot holes than they end up doing at the ballot box but we have seen some narrowing in the past few months. this is a complicated election cycle because ordinarily you would look at a president with 39% approval and high inflation would say they are headed for historic losses. democrats have gotten a boost in the last couple of months. the enthusiasm gap has closed significantly as a result of dobbs. the longer exists when you look at special elections we have seen in races in nebraska and minnesota last week, or democrats actually did better

than the 2020 presidential margin in those red seats. we have seen gas prices come down and that put a percent drop has taken a little bit of a bite out of the republicans' message of the biden inflation. we are in the midst of primary season and a lot of the republican polls have produced some nominees who may be a little too far right for swing districts. whereas a coldness ago we might have said that republicans were on track for a 20 percent to 35 seat -- 20 to 35 seat gain. host: the house right now, democrats held at 221 to 214 c advantage. how many seats -- seat advantage. how many seats do you see it switching hands?

guest: pc 34 races as tossup's in our nomenclature and another 26 races as either leaning democrat or republican, competitive but one party had an advantage. if you were to split the tossup's down the middle, republicans would gain 17 seats, right in the middle of our range. host: and well more than they need. guest: well more than they need but redistricting makes the cycle more complicated. if democrats hadn't suffered a crushing string of legal defeats toward the tail end of the 2022 redistricting process, including in florida, new york, and ohio, we might actually be talking about democrats having a good chance to retain the health majority. bernie is, if democrats hadn't won legal victories overturning republican gerrymander's in the past five years in pennsylvania,

north carolina, florida, and virginia, they probably wouldn't be holding a house majority narrowly today. host: did the primary season do more to put seats in play that democrats might be able to grab or did it do more to put seats in play that republicans might be able to pick up? guest: primary season has altered the outlook in more than a handful of seeds, but in some seeds it has had a big impact. in michigan's third district, or one of the 10 pro-impeachment republicans, peter mayer, narrowly lost his primary in grand rapids to a trump-endorsed former head later -- hud later had redistricting. that part is trending towards democrats. under the own lines, it was a seat trump won by three points and now it is a seed that widened would have one by eight point and republicans have a nominee who is a hard-core mag a

candidate. democrats have a strong candidate. we assume more broadly republican -- we see more broadly republican primaries in swing districts, there been some nominees with positions on abortion that are a little out of the mainstream. vega won virginia's for seventh district republican primary to face the democrat candidate, a gift to her because vega has been endorsed by the house freedom caucus and has expressed skepticism toward acceptance of abortion and they will pursue that against her and other candidates who fit that mold. host: for the rear viewer who has not seen one of david wasserman's 49 appearances, is

what he can do. chapter and verse on any district in this country. let me invite viewers to join in the conversation. if there is ray she want to talk about, go ahead. republican's (202) 748-8001, democrats (202) 748-8000, independents (202) 748-8002. he will be with us until the house gavels in. they will be coming in early to work on the inflation reduction act. start calling in. other trends you saw for primary season, and i know primary season is not over yet. guest: on the republican side, we are seeing two effects. we are seeing a defamation of the trunk skeptic winning of

house republicans. there were 10 who voted for impeachment, so far we have seen three lose primaries and we will see a fourth lose their primary when liz cheney is on the ballot next week in wyoming. then we have four of the 10 who opted not to seek reelection, leaving two remaining, one in washington state who just had a win over a trump-endorsed candidate who different put together a series campaign. and then the central valley of california who is up against a tough democratic challenge in a district that got more blue and the remap. we could see one out of 10 pro-impeachment republicans survive. we are seeing a number of more moderate republicans doing well in swing districts, people like tom kane junior in new jersey or zach non-in iowa's third district, -- zach nunn and i

was there district. in these seats we will see more traditional or moderate republicans emerge. and a lot of the safe republican seats in primaries, you are seeing the party be remade into trump's image. on the democratic side, we have seen a snapback from the progressive turn of 2018 and 2020, when you saw squad members in. we have seen on omar in the house almost lose primary for reelection in minnesota actually won shortly -- narrowly. you are also seeing groups play a lot in democratic primaries against progressives who are perceived as specific that it toward health and the rights.

as helped to blunt the movement of democrats and toward the left. host: charles is up in colorado, independent. caller: this isn't regarding any one race, but correct me if i'm wrong. i think all of this redistricting and gerrymandering is just hurting democracy, because if they are not balanced districts, you are not going to get fair elections. i just don't see where it has anything to do with democracy. a good example is a trump district is 80% trump, all trump has to do is call that person a rhino and he is out of office -- a rino and he is out of office.

i am just very disheartened. guest: logically, if we were living in a sane society, redistricting would be handled by a group of nonpartisan bureaucrats in every state capital or by a census commission. that is not the system we have. and as a result we have a great deal of asymmetry in the way that drawing boundaries is handled from state to state. and that is hurting democrats, because in a lot of lou estates like california, new jersey, washington, junior, colorado, voters have passed reforms that have taken the power to draw lines out of the hands of politicians and put them into bipartisan or nonpartisan commissions. the result is even though the maps might lean a little towards democrats, they are not the same type of jerry manders we are seeing in red states that have

hyperinflated the republicans' share of seats in place like texas and tennessee, florida, and ohio. publicans at this time were able to do an end around of commissions in ohio and utah by either neutering reforms passed by voters or waiting or stalling until deadline and passing a map at the last minute when it was too late for a lawsuit to overturn the map in ohio. in florida you saw government -- governor ron desantis overpower his own legislature in a map that will expand republicans' advantage there. redistricting does have the power to predetermine outcomes in a way that voters don't understand and has shifted competition from general

election to primaries and made them ideological cage matches the caller alerted to -- alluded to. a great deal of the polarization is attributable to the rural divide that has become more stark that has nothing to do with redistricting. democratic voters are clustering in suburbs in college towns. republicans have gained strength in small towns, rule areas -- rural areas and in cities and has given republicans an advantage where they can win a greater share of territory with a smaller number of votes. host: david wasserman so steeped in redistricting is that his twitter handle is at redistrict. this is john, south bend, indiana, republican. good morning.

caller: i wanted to ask about the special election in minnesota to replace jim hagedorn. do you think it would wrong to read into this too much as see it as a bellwether for the fall should republicans be tempering their expectations because this is a safe red seat that came within several single digits out would it be wrong to do that because of low turn out in that election. guest: we are in the midst of a string of house special elections that will give us clues is to if this post dobbs bump for democrats is durable into the fall. so far it looks good for democrats in that regard. four days after the supreme court district, in nebraska we saw the candidate come within six points of winning a special and a district that had voted for trunk -- trump by 11 points

and we saw that repeat in southern minnesota, another fairy will -- fairly rule all district but -- rural district and trump carried it by 10 points in 20 but the democrat came within four points of flipping that to democrats. publicans point out that this is a place that has some history of voting for democrats down ballot , represented not long ago by governor tim walz, a democrat, came within three points of beating the mayor in 2020. the republicans nominated an appealing candidate. this is not a race that i would have expected to be particularly close before the dobbs ruling, but the democrat was the former ceo of hormel foods and ran on cutting the cost of food and his

experience in dealing with inflation and consumer goods and it was a good message for democrats there. we will be watching the upcoming race in new york's 19th congressional district on august 23, a closer district and a seat biden carried by two points in 2020. if it democrats managed to turn the tide and win that race, and that would be an even better sign for their rebound. host: you mentioned nebraska. let's head to anthony in omaha, democrats. caller: i live in nebraska's second congressional district, the newest ranking from over in cook. they moved it a likely republican victory and justice week, an internal poll had bacon

up 15 which caused a firestorm. i wanted to know whether you had that information or whether that changes your mind. guest: i get asked more about this district then just about any other. bacon is a pragmatic republican incumbent, retired brigadier general who has advocated in one of 13 republicans to vote for the bipartisan infrastructure package and has won his last two elections narrowly from a very progressive democrat. this time around, democrats nominated tony vargas, who is a former public school teacher who moved to nebraska from new york city. he does have a more moderate

packaging. i met with him a couple months ago and was skeptical of his chances, but we have seen polling conducted for both parties that indicates it is a real race and may be assigned that the last few times democrats simply nominated a week candidate rather than don bacon demonstrating a lot of strength. this is an urban district turning toward democrats. biden won it in 2020 and they believe the abortion issue, the fact that they can fill out a right to life questionnaire which indicated opposed exceptions for rape and incensed could be the silver bullet to finally put this district in their column. i think it is going to be a very competitive race. host: for visual learners, we can show the race ratings chart you can find at

cookpolitical.com, these two great boxes are the most competitive races according to david wasserman and his colleagues are 26 seats, eight were publican seats in the tossup category. how much of this is science, art in making these race ratings from tossup to means one way or another to likely and safe? guest: it is a mix of art and science and we make as many qualitative assessments of strengths and weaknesses as well as quantitative. if you are only looking at these races in quantitative terms, you are missing half of the picture. if you're only following the gossip in the district, you are also missing half of the picture. my approach for the last 15 years has been to blend those two disciplines. as much time i -- as i spend in spreadsheets with redistricting, i am meeting with the

candidates. i've met between 800 and 900 congressional candidates in the last 15 years. the cycle alone we have been interviewing most of the competitive candidates on both sides of the aisle, sizing up with her their biographies fit the districts well and what the lines of attack might be with their opponents. candidates still do matter. that's why we don't assign a particular percentage odds but have more broad categories for these races that attempt to characterize where they stand in relation to each other. there will be a few surprises on election night. i fully expect that some races will go the other way, but if that didn't happen, then politics wouldn't keep us on our toes. host: 800 and 900 interviews,

who is the most memorable? guest: i really got to look through my notes. i have had my share of really strong candidates and also -- i will never forget a candidate from mississippi who went i asked the reason why he was running for congress told me that he was sick and tired of the bipartisanship plaguing washington. it was a wealthy, so funding executive. he had an a dude attempted to step in and correct him and said that mr. so-and-so is sick of the partisanship and not the bipartisanship. he turned and said which one is it? what am i supposed to say? it is those times that give you an indication of the level of experience. host: good morning. caller: there is a matter of art

and science and selecting as you mentioned and there are factors that cause candidates to lose and i'm interested in during the correlation between the folks that vote against -- voting to impeach lose their district. i am interested in how many trump-endorsed candidates have lost. i don't know what the correlation is saying they are losing because of voting to impeach. i would like to hear how many you think have lost that are trump endorsed. and finally the walker in warnock race in georgia, i would like to hear your opinion on that. guest: all great questions. donald trump had lost his for share of primaries of endorsed candidates. in-house races in georgia, we saw into runoffs, donald trump indoor sees lost to other

republicans, but in those cases, everyone running in those primaries was ardently pro-trump and maga oriented peer in may been the case of one being more -- oriented. it may have been case of one being better funded or a former democrat so it was tough to sell to an electorate over publicans. trump had endorsed katie arrington -- over republicans. trump had endorsed katie arrington over nancy mays who had voted to certify the 2020 election. i think the more meaningful primaries for determining the future of the republican conference aren't the ones that involve the pro-impeachment members, because we pretty much know they fell on their sward by voting for impeachment. they involve the members like mace who crossed trump in some

other way, either by voting for an infrastructure bill of the january 6 commission or simply voting to certify the results in arizona and pennsylvania last january. we have seen a mixed record for these members. some have hung on, nancy mays, chris smith, members from texas, but we have seen some lose. rodney davis and illinois's 15th district or david mckinley in west virginia's second district. we are going to see the party move anymore -- in a more trump direction. host: let me go back to liz cheney. i want two back and play a video from democratic congressman dean phillips of minnesota encouraging democrats to temporarily switch and vote republican in the primary in

wyoming for liz cheney. [video clip] >> i am dean phillips, a democratic member from minnesota you might be surprised i would be supporting liz cheney for wyoming u.s. house here but principal aust always come before politics and -- principal must always come before politics and no one has shown more integrity encourage then she. patriots will put it on the line to protect our country and liz cheney has done that. it is far more important than any policy changes. so i encourage you to please switch parties and vote for liz cheney. we would send a message to donald trump and protect our democracy. host: how unusual is something like that? guest: we are in an unprecedented time where we had republican members vote to impeach a president of their own party for his behavior. so we are seeing some democrats

express support for liz cheney. we are also seeing dick cheney cut and add where he calls trump a coward and that seems to be the closing message in the waning days of this campaign. there aren't enough democrats in wyoming to make a meaningful dance in the rebuttal can primary. wyoming is a state that voted for trump 70% of the vote in 2020. a couple months ago, the only elaborate hail mary pass to reelection for cheney involved accommodation of democrats reregistering to participate in a primary and a third pro-trump candidate taking votes away from harriet hagman who is the trump-endorsed see. as soon -- trump endorsee. polls show hagman ahead by 30 or more points. host: who is she?

guest: she is an attorney in the cheney camp has criticized for diverting water -- hoping well-heeled industries divert water from wyoming in the past, but she is the consensus tick of the pro-trump forces in the state and rather than attacking pigman, cheney has been more focused on defending her work on the january 6 commission and attacking donald trump. her real goal here is to affect how she will be remembered by his street more than it is to try and win the election. another irony -- in 2020, liz cheney could have chosen to run for an open senate seat and probably could have waltzed into that seat, but she told me at the time that she believed that the battle between freedom and

socialism would be fought in the house and wanted to climb the house readership ranks and now is on the verge of being out of a house. host: in georgia, this is niles, independent. caller: a caller took my question so i will ask another. michigan seven will be one of the more barnburner races. you have elissa slotkin who in 2018 was apprised democratic recruit going up against tom barrack, a state senator. that race is going to be one of the closest races in the country. but given the fact that michigan governor gretchen whitmer is by all accounts favored to win reelection, i am curious to know what your thoughts are on that

race and if governor whitmer could have any down ballot effect on members like slotkin and tillby. guest: michigan is a fascinating state, a cycle, in part because it had a new redistricting commission, bipartisan, who redrew a lot of competitive districts. if a lot of those were like michigan, we would see more. the seventh district held by alyssa slotkin, this is a race that is on the tossup list. she is facing state senator tom barrett. slotkin has run flawless campaigns the last two cycles and is one of the democrats who got elected in the blue wave of 2018. she has run as a pragmatist with

national security experience and run on populist message of stopping corruption in -- stopping corruption in washington working across the aisle. republicans have a financial advantage of the super pac level. kevin mccarthy has raised over $200 million for house republicans at the committee level this cycle, but the place where democrats have an advantage is at the candidate level, where they are frontline incumbents who have about $3.5 million on hand on average, whereas republican challengers are coming out of primaries a little bruised and broken and have had to replenish their warchest. so the next month or so, we are likely to see airwaves

unanswered against republican tom barrett. she is going to make the case that he voted the legislature against tax plans that would have gm to the district, so in democrats use this basically the cap all of these republicans -- kneecap all of these republicans had set a mousetrap where they cannot escape their high negative when it is finally their turn to go up with ads in october? host: not to get too deep into the strategy, but isn't this the place where the national republican congressional committee is supposed to come in and fill that gap if there is a place like this were something is done unanswered? there is a national party here spending money on these ads, right? guest: that's true. that is why republicans have gone in some districts where they don't think candidates can afford to be up yet, but keep in mind, committees and super pac's pay higher rates for as

the candidates. candidates are guaranteed the lowest unit rate of advertising. that can impact the calculus here. typically, messaging is more effective when it comes from the candidate. host: steve in rockville center, new york, republican. good morning. steve, you with us? sounds like you are there, but just not on your phone. this is donna in york, maine, democrat. good morning. caller: good morning. i'm so glad to be able to talk to an expert who is this passionate on this really important subject. i think i am a novice about it because i'm wondering who wields the power for redistricting? visit the legislature? -- is it the legislature? is it a commission? i think i heard you say that they overruled or vetoed the

decision by a commission in florida. the second part of my question is, it seems to me that it matters a lot, but maybe it matters less than i think. thanks a million. waiting for your answer. guest: redistricting is hugely important to determining house races, especially in an era where we have far less split ticket voting than we used to. there used to be a competitive range of districts that was quite wide, where it was routine for democrats to win seats in the south or rural areas that the republicans won by 20 points. and we saw a number of republicans win suburban seats that were barack obama and bill clinton had carried in the past. now, when local news has faded and there are fewer opportunities for candidates to differentiate themselves from

their parties, and electorates are demanding purity, we see fewer conservative democrats and moderate to liberal republicans. as a result, it is parliamentary. it is straight ticket. that means decisions about how to draw boundaries, even within a few miles, can predetermine which party has the advantage i n a decade. who gets to draw the lines? it depends on the states. in sum, there are commissions who are allowed to draw lines but not all are created equally. for example, in virginia and washington state, and new york state, commissions that were empowered with equal members of democrats and republicans, they simply reached a stalemate and courtside to intervene. but in other states, the process is relatively nonpolitical. for example, california is

prohibited from taking into account a partisanship or where incumbents live in their process. colorado and arizona have provisions encouraging the construction of competitive districts. and then in the majority of states, it is really up to partisan state legislators. that is where there is really a lot of opportunity to manipulate boundaries in favor of one side or the other. democrats were most successful the cycle in illinois, new mexico, and oregon in gerrymandering the boundaries, and nevada republicans successful and texas, florida, tennessee, and several others. host: you mentioned a most pure method of doing this. what state comes closest in your mind to that? guest: you know, i don't think there is a way to go about this that is absolutely perfect. but, i think a couple states have done a reasonable job of taking politics out of the

process to the extent possible. iowa has a nonpartisan legislative services agency that is tasked with drafting districts that the state legislature, which is partisan, can either accept or reject. this time around, they drew a set of plans of their first draft that probably would have given democrats a slight advantage over the current map. the republican legislature rejected that. they went back to the drawing board. finally, a map was adopted that is pretty similar to the plan that exists now. but california and colorado are prohibiting that political data in that process and have a system that is enviable because if other states went about it according to the same set of criteria, i think we would have far more competitive districts. we would have far more incentive

for members of congress to work with the other party. host: good morning. caller: good morning to you and all. let me share context for the question. 160 years ago, this country was involved in a horrendous civil war, which was more than anything else a war between political parties. since 1900, and you can go back farther, every holocaust in the world, where millions of people have been murdered, has been under the authority of a political party. it seems to me political parties are potentially at least very dangerous things. can you imagine in america a political system without political parties? that is my question. guest: i cannot from where we sit today. look. there is a reason why the nation's founders were skeptics of political parties and the factionalism they can create.

there was a time not so long ago when the political parties were not so ideologically coherent. think of the 1950's and 1960's, when there were big divides within both parties. now we see alignment between them and polarization that is reinforced by our residential patterns. americans tend not to want to live in places where there are a lot of people who disagree with them politically or publicly. we have seen a bifurcation between where college graduates tend to live and on college graduates live. we have seen -- non-college graduates live. we have seen social media give rise to a distant from debt make were distant from it -- disinfo demic where this information runs rampant.

and we have districts backed up that help reinforce that notion of living in echo chambers. or than anything else, i think their geographic polarization of the electorate and overconsumption of partisan news are threats to the long-term health of our democracy and discourse, and that is one of the many reasons that proceeds them. host: holly, pennsylvania, mike, independent. caller: good morning, dave. wondering if i can get a twofer for pennsylvania 7 and pennsylvania 8. i know you have susan wild currently as lead republican and mark cartwright as a tossup. i'm wondering what you're thinking was behind that and how you think the dobbs decision can play into that race because susan wild really has her agent college education but her and

give her a boost on the abortion issue this file. host: we have a lot of on-topic colors this morning. guest: eastern pennsylvania will be a key battle for the house. the lehigh valley, which is the seventh district, where susan wild is the democratic incumbent, you know, that has some areas that are trending bluer as some that are more blue-collar trending towards trump. the scranton district that cartwright represents to the north, the eighth district, that has more of a pure red trend. we have seen that district move from what used to be solid blue and our district that trump carried twice, so mark cartwright needed help from the redistricting process. in pennsylvania, the state supreme court, with democratic geordie, selected the next congressional maps. that map helped cartwright marginally by moving east

stroudsburg in monroe county, pennsylvania, a college town, from the seventh district, though wild district, into cartwright's district. what that it is made the eighth district little bit bluer and provided a little bit of help for cartwright. keep in mind, cartwright and wild only won reelection by two points or three points in 2020, and are facing the same opponents in 2022. it also made wilds district a little redder. she absorbed carbon county, jim thorpe, pennsylvania, which is a 2:1 trump county. if she had run for reelection in 2020 under the new lines, she probably would have lost against lisa schaller. it is possible both will lose this fall, what i think wild is in a little more trouble. host: to the garden state, catherine in west orange,

democrat. good morning. catherine, you with us? i think catherine is chatting with somebody else. jerry in inglewood, california. good morning. you are next. caller: good morning. host: go ahead, sir. caller: thanks for taking my call. i had a couple of questions for your guest. i was wondering, yes, i'm here. host: go ahead, what are your questions? caller: my first question is, do you think house democrats are going to lose more seats than the historical average for the president's first midterm? and the second one, what do you think are the most affirmed redactors in terms of outcomes for this midterm? thank you. guest: both great questions. the historical average is in a post-world war ii era, the president's party has lost 26 how seats and two senate seats

in midterms. a month ago, i might have taken the over or two months ago i might have taken the over on that 26 seats. keep in mind, republicans are starting from a very high floor. the actually picked up a dozen house seats in 2020, so they are only four seats away from the majority, that's a big difference versus 1994 and 2010, when republicans were deep in the minority and took back the house by winning 54 and 63 seats respectively. this time around, we would expect a smaller game to begin with, but now, i ranges closer to 10 to 25 seats. i would take the under on that based on the indicators we are seeing. i'm not a big believer in the generic ballot for forecasting the house outcome. and that is what we talked about at the beginning. host: news poll got so much attention yesterday. guest: correct. when you are talking about that poll showing 41-40 one, there

are way too many undecideds unaccounted for in that. i think if you are looking at one pole consistently, maybe it offers a measure of which way the wind is blowing and how strong, but i don't think we can superimpose that on the nation and say, the parties are going to win and even share of votes this fall. host: republicans have this take advantage going back to the springtime, when they started doing generic ballots. should we be reading it that way? guest: i would look at an average of polls. i think 538 does real good job and real clear politics does a great job of coming up with an average. what we can see is that republicans might have had a two point 43 point advantage on the question before dobbs, and now it is basically dead even between the parties. that tracks with what we are seeing in the partisan private surveys that party committees are taking to gauge where to spend money. we have seen maybe a bump for democrats of 1, 2, 3 points.

that is probably not enough to save the house for them. but it is enough to cut republicans' losses significantly. as far as good indicators that we are watching, you know, i like to look at hard votes. and the washington state primary has typically been a pretty good indicator of how the fall is going to go because it is a blanket primary, where all voters are voting for folks or candidates of all parties on the same ballot. there was typically high turnout because all voters are automatically sent to ballot in the mail in washington state. judging by the results we saw last week, you have got a pretty neutral political environment in at least washington state, where it is not as democratic a year as 2018, not as republican a year as 2010 or 2014, but some

are in line with any 16 or 2020. and that would -- with 2016 or 2020. that would suggest democrats are in a better position than they were last november, when you had republicans like glenn youngkin run a table in virginia that took back control of the house of delegates, and they ran well ahead of biden in new jersey. host: about 15 minutes left with david wasserman with the cook political report. it is all available online. go ahead, keep calling. we will take you to the house when they gaveling this morning, expected about 9:00 a.m. eastern. this is will and the volunteer state, democrat, good morning. caller: good morning. i just had a question concerning ohio one, the cincinnati area district, where steve shabbat is the incumbent. that race has been made or that

district, rather, has been made slightly more democratic from what i understand, so i'm just wondering, dave, what do you think about that district's race and if you think he is in much danger? thank you. guest: yeah, steve shouted -- steve shabbat has been a survivor for a long time, first elected 19 -- steve chabot has been a survivor for a long time, first elected in the 1990's, and one of the provisions in ohio's reform was that the city of cincinnati could not split. for years, republicans were able to gerrymander this so they could split cincinnati down the middle to dilute democratic votes. that made this district a republican leaning seat. this time around, the best that republicans could do in their

gerrymander was to attach the city of cincinnati via an awkward string to warren county, which is a heavily republican suburban county, although, it does have some parts that are becoming more asian and more diverse. now, the democrat lanson was the only on file. i was surprised more democrats did not want to run here. he is a cincinnati councilman who republicans are attacking for trying to ban soda on kids menus in cincinnati. i think given the new contours of this seat, which biden ould d have won by eight or nine points, it is smack dab in the tossup range. he has a good chance of beating chabot despite the republican leaning year. host: pagosa springs, colorado. sean. a republican. good morning. caller: good morning, how are you guys doing? i just had a question for this

guy about the 2020 election. do you think that $470 million were put into this election? what is going on now that trump is crazy? it should be hanging the cuban flag behind you because this is not america when you can rate a president. -- raid a president. it is crazy what is going on. guest host: in this week's events on mar-a-lago, will the impact 2022? guest: i'm not sure what impact the raid will have on the election. trump voters were already very engaged and hostile to joe biden and the administration before this raid or before this search, i should say. the enthusiasm on the republican side, i'm not sure it can get that much higher with what we

saw in virginia and new jersey in 2021. but, to the extent that trump is part of the election calculation, part of the news, or even dominating the news in 2022, that tends to make it just as much of a choice between biden and trump as a pure referendum on biden, and that benefits democrats. look, if trump were to announce a campaign for 2024 before the midterms, that is something republicans were we would hurt their chances in congressional races. host: why? guest: because he is as unpopular as biden. a vast majority of voters believe that trump did something illegal during the course of his presidency or afterwards. and they personally dislike him. voters have a different impression of biden.

they believe he is ineffective and has done a poor job on the economy, but they still tend to think highly of his morals unlike him personally. it is more of a malaise on the democratic side, and trump has the potential to energize democrats as much as republicans. host: some of the ads out this cycle, this from the gop affiliate american action network. the theme here, inflation and government spending. this ad targeting democratic congressman greg stanton of arizona. >> prices on everything up, up, up, so why is greg stanton making things worse? while arizona families were struggling with rising prices, stanton teamed up with pelosi and biden to stem trillions, pet projects, luxury resorts. stanton bailed them out and left you holding the bill. call greg stanton and tell him

no more spending because you cannot afford his liberal agenda. host: this is the message republicans went to pound home to election day. guest: this is a calculation because biden is at 39%, 40% approval, and most of the democratic incumbents have significantly higher approval ratings. the legislative action we have seen in the past couple of months has probably boosted democratic voters' favorability towards their own member of congress on the democratic side. in arizona's fourth district, this race would not be competitive had it not been for the new lines pushing this district further out into mesa. back at the democratic advantage from biden plus 22 to biden plus 10. republicans in d.c. that they had a strong candidate in tonya we list, -- tonya wheeless, a

very pro-term candidate, so now greg stanton probably has a bigger advantage than he did before the republican primary. host: north carolina, haven't been to the tar heel state so far today, lewis, democrat. good morning. caller: top of the morning to you guys and c-span. we already know that i think a wet mop in the corner can be donald trump right now with anything he runs with because of biden received 8 million votes last time, i'm sure it is probably double that. do you think that the women who protest and marched and set all these things about the supreme court ruling on abortion rights, do you think those women are going to vote republican and

complain after they voted for republicans denying them their rights? guest: you know, for the first year and change of biden's presidency, a lot of democrats were wondering, where is the enthusiasm from the women's march of 2017? where is the enthusiasm from the 2018 lou wave? -- blue wave? and even the 2020 election when joe biden be donald trump. i think the answer was there was exhaustion on the democratic side after four years of fighting donald trump and countering all of his antics on social media or otherwise. now, i think that democratic energy is coming back a little bit. you know, remember in 2018, the kavanaugh hearings energized republicans with just a little while ago about a month ago before the midterm elections, and i would argue how to keep

them from losing more seats and gain seats in red states. i think the search for democrats has been stronger in reaction to the supreme court and in reaction to a trump being back in a big way, so that has pushed this from a red wave into something that is a bit more competitive. host: democrats, the house majority, pac, the key funding arms for house democrats trying to capitalize on that. here is one of their ads targeting house republicans. >> for republicans, it is all about control. control of our bodies, our rights and congress. we have to stop them. republicans supported overturning roe v. wade, punishing women traveling for abortion care, and voted against access to birth control. if republicans win, they will ban abortions in every state. they will not stop there. control at the state. vote democratic.

house majority pack is responsible for the content of this ad. host: house majority pac, for nancy pelosi, focusing on this message. guest: that is right. democrats have found their message for the fall, and it is abortion. this is an issue that puts republicans in a bind. it divides the republican coalition more than democrats. 28% of trump voters leaned pro-choice on the abortion issue , so it is a wedge that democrats can exploit, particularly where they have nominated people with flat bands are no exceptions. a key contest is in washington states third district where jamie herrera butler, a pro-impeachment republican lost the primary to a far right former green beret, goldstar husband named joe kent. kent is a synthetic figure on some level because he served 11

combat tours. at the same time, he has called abortion a slaughter of the innocent. he is anti-vaccine and activist. he is out of step with what is essentially a swing suburban district on a couple of levels. can the house majority pack, will democratic groups invest in races like these where a couple of months ago the democratic candidate in this race, who is an auto mechanic and owns an auto body shop, on their radar, it takes millions of dollars to put a district like this in play, but if they believe they have an effective message, they might take a chance. host: the house is getting ready to come in, in a few minutes. i cannot get you to washington, but i can get you to oregon. stan, republican. good morning.

caller: the question i have for mr. wasserman. host: what is your question, stan? caller: good morning. i was watching c-span last week, last night, [indiscernible] they were asking questions about who they would pick for president. what about the midterm election? and about the votes? the guy said we are thinking about planning on expanding the ground. host: expanding the ballot.

i'm not sure what that means. perhaps mail-in voting? guest: i had a hard time hearing the caller. host: is it oregon state that has mail-in voting? guest: it does, and oregon has been one of the pioneers with washington state on mail-in voting and colorado and several others. oregon is fascinating and the cycle because there is a competitive three-way governor's race between a democrat, republican, and betsy johnson, who is an independent who has gained traction. there is also a new congressional map. democrats got to draw it, but there could be as many as three competitive races there. so it is a place that has not been a battleground in the past, but both parties will spend. host: i'm certain we will have you back before election day to talk more about it. david wasserman, u.s. house senior editor at the cook political report,

cookpolitical.com and on twitter @redistric. that does it for our program today. the house will get ready to gavel in. we will take you live there now for gavel-to-gavel coverage.