>> book tv, every sunday on c-span2, features leading authors discussing their latest nonfiction books. at 9:00 p.m. eastern manhattan institute fellow raffaella ming wall shares s book, wre he argues that defunding the police and introducing more leniency in the criminal justice stem would disproportiotely harm black and brown americans. at 10:00 p.m. eastern, brandi collins dexter looks at the relationship between black voters and the democratic party, with her book "like skinhead." she is interviewed by journalist leslie lowery. watch book tv every sunday on c-span2, and find a full schedule in your program guide, or watch online at booktv.org. ♪

>> the c-span shop holiday sale isoi on now at c-span op.org. save 15% on t-shirts, drink ware, and more. there is something for every c-span fan, and every purchase helps support our nonprofit operations. scane co at the right to start ng n at c-spanshop.org. our first guest of the morning kyle kondik is the managing editor of the crystal ball. welcome to the program or welcome back i should say. reminds people of a crystal ball, but it is. guest: it is a newsletter about american campaigns and elections. it is free to sign up. we will be making picks in the

election and cover the recap and get ready for 2024. host: what is it take for the house to turn over to republican control? guest: democrat majority in both chambers are tight. it's going to take the republicans to win five more seats than they did in 2020. and they just need that one seat in the senate. kamala harris breaks ties. host: as you see trends happening what is the likeliness of one of those things happening? guest: i think the chance of flipping the house is very high. maybe like a glimmer for the democrats, a little bit earlier in the cycle. i thought the republicans were favored the whole time, i think that continues to be the case. the senate, i think it will be a tossup. i think it has gotten better for republicans. i think they are using midterm as a segway.

dobbs decision happen, a few other factors, i kind of but the senate would flip to the republicans earlier in the year now i view it as a tossup. things kind of sort of content -- continue to get better. host: what do you attribute that to? guest: it is a midterm election. particularly if the president -- which this president done. there are problems that the republicans are on offense about. ultimately, the democrats talk about abortion a lot which i think has helped them to some degree but it kind of seems like the so-called fundamentals, basic factors that the election, you know of democrats hope the white house midterm elections the president as unpopular those are important. host: you wrote a recent piece

on taking a look at this issue you said there are weird things going on out there. could you describe that? guest: you have like a red state governor from oklahoma that seems to be really close. there are also signs that the eunuch -- new york governor race is more competitive. sometimes the polls will kind of understate republicans or your state -- understate democrats. that's what i said it sort of weird, so the recent analysis taking a look at the senate sides some of those other races they get talked about a lot the reset of iowa chuck grassley. describe that. guest: there is a great poster

out of iowa have and she had a poll where he was up by three points in that race. i think grassley is going to be fine but i think it's worth watching. host: murray has gone from almost democrat it. guest: interesting thought mary should be fine host:. this is kyle kondik joining us. if you want to ask questions about what he has seen (202) 748-8001 for republicans, (202) 748-8000 for democrats. (202) 748-8002 independents and you can also text esther comment at (202) 748-8003. guest: a lot of people are focused on the democrats

pennsylvania it is search of -- it is sort of dicey. there are others that are important. arizona, new hampshire. wisconsin, ohio, republican side. that seems reasonable to me. host: we saw president biden campaigning for john fetterman where does that race extent specifically? guest: i thinko is still ahead by a little bit. i think federman has taken a lot of incoming hets republicans are tough on crime -- talk about crime a lot.

he has taken a hit but i don't think it's worse in terms of favorability. that wouldn't necessarily prevent oz from getting over the finish line. host: as far as spending in this race, who is the bigger supporter outside of the campaign? guest: the republicans have had an outside spending advantage in a lot of the key races but the democratic individual candidates have been raising more money so in terms of like over all, off the top of my head i think it is probably balanced at this point. whenever you are looking at the spending stuff, the candidates more bang for their buck and more ads than the outsiders do. that is because a federal law going back to the late 60's, early 70's that the candidates themselves are guaranteed a lower rate.

$1 million from john fetterman goes further. host: you mentioned georgia, where is herschel walker after the story came out about him paying for his girlfriend's abortion? guest: he is probably a little bit behind but i don't think raphael warnock is super close to 50%. georgia you are not just running against your opponent. we learned about the runoffs in 2020. the two senate routes that the democrats one, this time it will be in february and not in january. i think the likeliest outcome there is a runoff and may be that race will decide the senate. if there is a runoff i think it resets that race. it looks like brian kemp, republican governor there is doing pretty well.

probably he can still the one without a runoff. it seems like both candidates are solid. host: as far as the incumbent senator, why do you think he is not reaching over 50? guest: it's a tough year. georgia is more of a purple state this is a republican leaning midterm. however, i think is a candidate, it's easier to have the sorts of problems now then 10 or 20 years ago because i think voters, they think more about party and national trend as opposed to people sometimes say i vote for the person, not the party. a lot of people like about that. they know that georgia last time they can win the senate back.

i think it's also possible that if you had a strong republican candidate may be the person will be tied or leading at this point. but herschel walker is still in the game. host: you talk about the governors race and rain cap attack about stacy abrams and the comment she said about abortion. guest: think the primary there has been a blowout i think that was favored ever since then. nothing has happened to sort of change our mind about that. host: first caller comes from maine. you are on with kyle kondik. caller: thank you, good morning. kyle, is that your first name? can you prognosticate who's winning in 2020 in georgia with

the crystal ball? we kept it as a tossup for election day. i thought democrats just won the presidency, the motivation would not be there and it turned out i think trump sort of complained about the election probably depressed republican turnout a little bit so democratic turnout was more robust. host: this is jeffrey from north carolina. caller: thank you for taking the call. a lot of topics going on and i want to address a couple of things. it's obvious that right now with these races and runoffs and people who are all participating in it, you hear a lot, so much

negative and promises. it seems it's all connected to when you run for office. then the republican party, i just don't understand it any longer to where no one is absolutely not holding the ex-president responsible on numerous infractions, numerous examples of what should be the protocol of the republican party. for the united states, whatever side, someone who is in of the right thing make changes, this country has fallen apart. it is care -- clear it is still a high debate which it is said to say white and black in america. there is no separation, there is so much tension between the two lies that exist differently and

then you have clearly what transpired on january 6 that the republican party, the whole party would not announce. host: we got the point, thank you. guest: it's interesting that donald trump seemed like he would be a candy -- handicap for republicans. i think he probably was in those georgia runoffs in 2021. but i think the democrats have focused a lot on january 6 like the hearings going on on capitol hill. but, ultimately, it just seems like the public is not as much focused on that when it comes to the election as they are sort of the sort of standard things that happen in midterms. he said that's a good thing, you can say it's a bad thing it just seems to be, you know the reality is donald trump is still the leader of the republican

party. he could be gearing up to run for president himself. i think in that immediate aftermath it just hasn't happened. host: washington times taking a look at the senate race. where does that stand? guest: i think the favorite to win it's a good race. north carolina has been a state is just broken more towards the republicans. that's the state kind of thought would carry in 2020 wasn't able to do it. it's interesting there has been this sort of realignment as some of the states in the atlantic. virginia is a gamble. if you think virginia is sort of a democrat leaning state from a federal standpoint, and you thought that north carolina and georgia sort of teaching into a

similar kind of way. georgia has moved to be of a 50-50 state. while georgia has atlanta, the metro atlanta growing so much in starting to get a lot more blue north carolina still has, it doesn't have that sort of dominant population. this just a little bit of a different dynamic for north carolina. it remains a center-right kind of state. host: kyle kondik joining us for this conversation. this is sue, independent line. caller: i have a question. i think the republican party controls the legislation here in michigan. with abortion on the ballot do

you think the mayor will get reelected and if she does, if she turns a couple of legislation seats? guest: i think governor whitmer's favorite for reelection. there have been some, some other similar states like pennsylvania it feels like josh shapiro has a stronger edge at this point. but this might be the one difference is sort of the big outset standing for republican governors. they are involved in michigan and not in pennsylvania. i think witmer is still favored and the abortion issue is likely or not likely to pass. both chambers are competitive. if she does well enough you can see the democrats when the house and senate. thursday we had a piece about

competitive state legislative chambers. so kind of the overlap in key swing states. host: 40% for republicans and 45% for democrats the gallup to pull of party affiliation 43% of those say they are independent. where did they fall? guest: all independents are sort of closet partisans. this a yearly more democratic relay more for republicans. you leave the number it will be reduced significantly. however, independents are still important there are people who swing between the two parties. democrats have been holding up ok with independents in senate races the question is what continues to the finish line? host: that's hear from ted. ted in boston.

independent line go ahead. caller: i was just sitting here remarking, you know, after i see this guy on tv i'm saying while we have to deal with this. like i used to call into c-span and it used to be higher-quality because we were presented with higher quality topics of discussion and candidates. i'm sitting here wondering at one point does your guest take a stand with respect to the really low quality here that we have on america in terms of political discussion what would it take for that guy to stand against the other, i don't know, garbage that we are presented with? the topics of discussion, people like oz and bible thumper republicans and maga terrorists. guest: it's up to primary

collectors to pick the candidates. the parties don't exercise as much control as the use too particularly the republican party over his getting nominated. so if you ask during the cycle who handpicks the senate candidates i don't think he would have selected the candidates that were produced but he didn't have the power to do that. and it had been different in that republicans had been nominated, a lot of them don't have experience running for office. dr. causes the tv dr. and pennsylvania is a good example of that. you mentioned ted, he's a house member. senate challenger in nevada, former attorney general, again, a lot of these candidates don't have election backgrounds.

that seems to be what republican primary voters prefer and also donald trump has endorsed a lot of these candidates. if he hadn't endorsed dr. ross david mccormick probably would have won that race. these are the choices the parties make. if they don't when the senate it's probably because the candidates were not as strong as they could've been. maybe they will. host: caller from kentucky on in the caller: independent line. people seem to have an age problem. 2016 roughly six -- 56% were over 50 years old. time they would've been 71 in the six years since then the life expectancy is 77 you can imagine how many of those voters

have passed away. the other half, of the democrat voters that's over 50 years old, a lot of them were between the ages of 18 and 24 so you can imagine how many young people were 12 years old in 2016 and would have been 18 years in 2022 is that something you looked at? guest: there is a age cap in american politics older voters tend to be a little bit more conservative. particularly the midterms you will see the older voters turn out at a higher rate and i think also there is i thought that there would be this realignment in american politics because nonwhite voters are our growing segment of the population also the 18 to 29-year-old crip are the most diverse group. but it just hasn't happened and

i think these sort of, you have to think about the realigning trends. while a lot of people's political beliefs and voting habits are basically set there are people changing their minds. you know, the eastern part of the state, it is much more democratic than it is now. even if the candidate is older you may have someone who voted democratic and that's been enough to keep kentucky as a red state. even the democrats have gained in places like louisville, there's just too many republican small-town voters. host: university of florida's election project spent over $2 million in this upcoming cycle. what does that tell you as far as the number and who is

actually participating in early voting? guest: i'm pretty sure it was 2018, that was a democratic leaning electorate. this is sort of, conventional wisdom of the democrats to have a higher turnout and is not necessarily true. just one example, the governor's race was a very good turnout but it was also a republican leaning electorate. it will always be lower turnout in the presidential election you know, the early voting you're going to have a lot of people showing up. some people will tried, i don't necessarily know if it helps anything about what might happen different kind of people, different cans of voters will

put different ways. there is a polarization by voting method that i have seen, i think we saw it in 2020. democrats like to vote by mail. host: we hammered out mail-in voting are there still concerns about it? guest: i think there is concern about how long the council take. if you are in pennsylvania i don't think it's called until the weekend. it can take six weeks to finalize the vote count. there could be some important house reese's that we may not know unless the house is really close it won't make a difference to i'm just reading something yesterday they are sort of hoping we will know pennsylvania on election night early wednesday morning but of course the races are close.

i think people think the vote takes longer so it's a rigged or something like that. particular -- patient they are cash properly. that is probably what happened in california too. they are trying to make sure that the votes are cast properly. host: our guest is the editor of cristobal. what is the book about? guest: the growth of the republican power. all the way through the republican soup in 1994 so the book starts in the early 60's it starts with the supreme court decision the one person one

vote. it really effectively did not have to have population in the states but it was a good starting point. pretty high points for 300 seats they won when the johnson plant -- landslide. it sort of goes through different factors. we moved to a. were democrats nominated the house we are in a more competitive time now or republicans are likely to hold the house majority. it looks like they will recapture in a few weeks. host: let's go to danny from south virginia. >> good morning, i just want to call in and talk about the election donald complains all the time that he won he really didn't beat hillary clinton. and he beats about -- he

complains about hubie ivan. he wasn't even close. and another thing, people that want to vote for the republicans, they better watch what they are voting for because they are going to kill social security. and that's about all i have to say. guest: i would categorize that is pretty close. joe biden wrote like 4.5. the margin in the key states is kind of complicated to go with the math but it is smaller than it was for trump in 2016 it's sort of depending on how you look at it. we are at a. in history where you have two parties of problems, two parties that hit each other from year-to-year and we are in warm

strut -- stretch. maybe we will have, may be party will breakout in the coming elections or something but for the time being very closely competitive. host: i want to show you two ads from the race for new york governor one from the republican channel and one criticizing this one focuses on crime and viewers should know some of this may be a little graphic. [video clip] >> it israel. there were no warnings, actual violent crimes caught on camera in new york. and it's getting much worse. on november 8, felt like your life depends on it. it just might.

it's time our families feel safe again. >> on january 6 this officer was on the front line defending the u.s. capitol. he was one of the officers injured and died the next day resulting -- refuse the investigation against violence against bullies. he doesn't support law enforcement and puts his politics before the police. >> not -- no comments requested by agencies or agents. guest: you have seen a lot of republican folks reporting on crime. they say republicans have criticized it's interesting there are a lot of competitive congressional districts democratic gerrymandering, that

prevented that from happening. republicans are featuring host: --hokel. if this governors race disinfecting close she probably what a lot of those constraints even though she sort of would do well in new york city. and, so that's typically good enough that's why new york has become such a democratic state. the messaging you have seen in this race, you can see the sort of advertising across the country, democrats ted a response -- respond by issuing their own. here we have at the capitol sort of attacking lee for not being protective of capitol police.

but you also see they are using law enforcement to sort of validate themselves to try to push back against crime messaging or republicans. host: you mentioned governor youngkin in virginia we saw it come close that surprise happen in new york? guest: i think the door has cracked open a little bit. . she still leads is just her lead is more in the single digits. pulling did mention to watch out for the pulse to underestimate democrats in a blue state. it has been more competitive. you do have the state holds coming back and they are finding closer rates. host: william in texas, good morning. caller: i have to ask you a question.

tell me one program that the republicans have given the american people within the last 50 years? nothing. they have given nothing. you're telling me that america is going to vote for [indiscernible] host: you caller: are breaking up. caller:can you hear me now? host: yet, go ahead. caller: why would they vote for a republican they haven't done anything. all they have been doing is cutting programs. tell me why anyone would vote republican. medicare and medicaid, are you crazy? host: ok. guest: as some of to me to decide whether they should or they shouldn't. i analyze what i see is going on up there and what she was also

talking about which is pretty common, democrats are using republicans and a saying republicans are going to cut the programs. there has been some discussion about using the debt ceiling as a weapon to try to get the white house to accept cuts. it has not been a consensual fact. i think it would be a problem for the country internationally speaking but that could come up next year. host: gone from pennsylvania, hi. caller: i disorder, on the morning joe that is the candidate for governor. that has a higher crime rate then new york city, california,

and some of the other red states which have higher crime rates per capita. here st. louis leads the nation in violent crime and that's in a red state the democrats have really used it for capital basis but it gives you, obvious he new york city is going to have more crime because of the population but on a per capita basis, some of the red states lead the crowd. also the important issue is rock the cradle controls the vote. i think pennsylvania people are going to have a democratic senator and a democratic governor. the lives perpetrate on john fetterman he is not going to stay away from working for 29 years.

i'm sure he paid his taxes, they say he hasn't paid texas for 67 times. i don't think you can hold a job and not pay taxes. host: john in pennsylvania, thank you. it's interesting he didn't agree with the tagline guest: people are out there they sort of internalize some of the things they said they hear whether they are accurate or not or whatever. so for the abortion question i do think abortion is important in this election and even if republicans do very well it doesn't mean their position is popular or that it will be an issue any the future. it will be an issue coming up in the future. host: we will show you some ads in a little bit on various issues.

auto -- in colorado michael bennet. where does that stand? guest: that would be part of a pretty big wave. then it is still with the pretty big league. his kin his opponent is a pretty decent candidate. i think some of the other republican candidates are sort of middle ground on abortion. democrats say he doesn't feel that way but colorado also trends more blue in recent years. it is probably a single digit race. host: and another one you mentioned it in the senate. guest: i thought that was the most vulnerable. that is one place you think about polls and one not, generally i think it's more

republican in recent years. democrats are sometimes underestimated and that is where the early voting doesn't talk a lot what will happen. but your phones can be helpful in nevada. he disagreed daily look i think it starts tomorrow. i am thinking is that unless the early voting really shows them democrats doing better than we think and better at the polls i think republicans will probably favor out there. host: what if the incumbent and struggling? guest: i think a big part of it is demographic. democrats are holding up better people have a four-year college degree, people have formal education.

under atlanta, phoenix, etc., nevada is not the kind of state and that of a little more working class. people may be tough for themselves but they don't have a four-year degree. there has also been some thought that democrats are falling off a little bit with latino voters. so you think demographic political trends are not really positive for the democrats out in n announcer: you can watch this program and its entirety if you go to our website, c-span.org. we will take you live now to republican senator john boozman and his two challengers in the arkansas senate race, democrat natalie james, and libertarian kenneth cates. hosted by arkansas pbs.