i have a comment about the democrat who is running for senate, a gentleman named john fetterman. host: yep. caller: everybody can tell, just recognize him at a glance. he looks like a homeless guy down here at the quarter in austin, texas. he has no respect for the senate or anything else. he looks like a bum. host: jim in georgetown, texas. our last form -- caller in this open forum. it is centerforpolitics.org/crystal ball. what is the crystal ball telling you about --

>> the odds heavily favor -- there have been 19 midterm election since world war ii and in 17 of the 19, the party out of the white house gained seats in the house and you can argue forever about how many seats there will be but whether it is one or 50, one assumes the party -- the republican can organize the house so what i think it will be -- i think it will be a decent number. you can argue whether it is 15 or 20 or 25. the house, i think, that is probable for the republicans and the senate, we go back and forth most any day. it is very close and it is -- if something happens, even this weight that could spend the election to the dark -- democrats or away from them, it

is -- it will determine the center for the next two years or at least until a vacancy or vacancies occur and maybe there is a change in that so that is the one to watch and i think everyone is -- depending on how you count, five or six or seven seats that are in play and some are at the next level and they could potentially be in play but it seems to be at the moment -- and that is interesting to me. the most interesting races are the governors races and there are quite a few competitive ones. host: what will you be watching for? what this someone like yourself whose job it is to cover the races, what interests you in this sprint? guest: i focus on october

surprises and i remember so many and people assume there is one big giant october surprise that changes everything and occasionally that happens. this is the 60th anniversary of the cuban missile crisis, which occurred in october 1962, right before john f. kennedy's only midterm election and it did help the democrats and there was no change in congress. they held the house by a wide margin in the senate as well. -- and the senate as well and i wrote -- the republicans might have done better if not for the cuban missile crisis which appeared to be a victory for the united states so he gave a glow to the kennedy administration and there are so many people that don't remember because they can be small and affect one state or one demographic.

i am up for those because they can be significant when you have very close races as you do for the senate. host: have we seen some october surprises? guest: the first one is the dobbs decision. we use the term october surprise and it could be earlier than october and even in the first week of november. this election is a late one, the first tuesday after the first monday in november and it could be as early as november 2 or you can have it i believe on november the eighth. everyday matters and the final days better a lot but they don't matter as much as we used to because we have a lot of early voting. in a few's -- few states, it is election six weeks.

people are determining their votes based on what they know on the day they mark their ballot. over the years, i have talked to more registers -- registrars that i can tell you. they have people that come in and say i change my mind, can i full for the other candidate? you can't because they separate your vote from the envelope you sent it in and they have no idea which one is your vote. you can't get it back so that is the downside of voting early. they miss some of the october or november surprises. host: how much does the crystal ball focus on mail-in voting numbers, and how have you had to account for that in recent cycles? guest: we look at them and love stats. everyone in politics does and that is why so many people in politics follow sports.

do we determine our races based on that? no because we are in a transitional period. although the fit was spurred by covid and some of it was underway before the pandemic. we are moving from an electorate that mainly voted on election day to an electorate that much prefers to vote by mail or early in person. something other than election day and there is an upside. i mentioned the downsides and you can cast your ballot before some major event happens but the upside of doing it is when people wait for election day, life is crazy for most people at your child -- and your child made get sick --may get sick or you may have all flat tire or your boss calls you in and you don't have time to go to the polls. when it is all stacked on one day, it is possible for a lot of

people to miss voting and at least with this, you could work it into your schedule over a month's time depending on the state. host: the crystal ball brings ratings for all the senate and gubernatorial races and we are talking about this our -- based during this hour. republicans, "washington journal" continues. --(202) 748-8001. democrats, (202) 748-8001. independence, (202) 748-8003 -- (202) 748-8002. what should we be meeting in the polls and what advice do you have for viewers? guest: none of us ignore them

and we consume them constantly, at least those of us in the political field but i think we have learned something important since 2016. which is, just as an early generation discovered in the true man-do we --truman-dewey race, we learned with the trumpet misfire in 2016 when everyone predicted that hillary clinton would win. polls aren't quite as accurate as he thought they work and while they tried to reform in his -- and i salute organizations who try to improve the process, they have still been inaccurate. there is actual reason for reading them and looking at them but not assuming that it is god

handing the tablets to moses on the mound. they can be flawed in many ways and you can see that as you look at the individual polls. they are all over the lot. you have a certain number of polls and many partisan, showing the partisan candidate ahead and they are trying to flood the zone for the pulling averages and to keep their volunteers and their partisans excited because bases on a good --the s eize on a pole --poll. what i tell people this -- is, what polls really do is tell you in aggregate. is the race close or not? if it is within a few points and

the margin of error is probably too restrictive. that is the statistical margin or ever -- of error but when you look at the ways the polls can be off track, the margin of error is larger. . you get -- if the lead for a candidate that is within the margin of error, even an expanded margin of error, you can say this is indeterminate. it suggests as of today, maybe this candidate is ahead but it is close enough that turnout patterns could change and last-minute events could change it. mobilization could change it and so on. read the polls and no one will tell you not to. don't take them quite as seriously as he once did. -- you once that. host: this is the racecourse on

patrick maloney -- race on sean patrick maloney. your thoughts on that race and the larger story of what that pole could mean? caller: -- guest: who took the pole? host: i will let you know -- guest: i need to know who it is. sometimes they are right but they do have an agenda. they have an ax to grind and they tend -- almost always to show their candidate -- parties candidate doing better than polling average. they could be right but it causes you to be suspicious and they are -- there are polling groups on the republican and democrat sites --sides who do that and maloney has been controversial in his role with

the democratic campaign and he has aggregated democrats in new york but the democratic leadership in the house seems to be pleased with him. his district is not overwhelmingly democratic. it is theoretically possible for him to be defeated. maybe more than theoretically possible. on a compass, q usually that a little less on them in the districting -- redistricting gears --years. garp was a prime chase of the system of redistricting -- new york was a prime case of the system of redistricting. the polls are -- two's -- to unsettle the political class and give inspiration and motivation to the partisans on the side that was expected to lose. you want a definitive answer and

there is no definitive answer except the one coming on november 8. host: i want to go to grand gorge, new york. line for republicans. caller: i wanted to respond to mr. sanders comments about the cuban missile crisis and president biden said that he wants to give us -- give up the lease on what tom no bay -- on guantanamo bay because it is too expensive even though we are spending money like you wouldn't believe and i am concerned about the danger about who would occupy this territory if we give it up. host: you care to jump in? guest: the very next time that you have a foreign policy expert on the washington journal, i

encourage the lady to call. that is an excellent question. i stick to electrical -- electoral politics. host: i appreciate that. and dependent line -- independent line. caller: i have been shortchanged about the historical context of october surprise. it is from a book -- specifically on women's issues in had to do with the fact that at the time, about 80 americans are being held hostage in iran by the new regime that had taken over the iranian revolution in 1979 and there was concern that if president carter, if his administration had secured release of those hostages, it would have given him just enough edge to win that election of 1980, and his administration had

failed in the areas of inflation but the people running the campaign of ronald reagan, which was george herbert marshall -- george herbert walker bush and others, negotiated a secret agreement with the new revolutionary regime -- in iran. host: you want to bring us up to the midterms? caller: i think the context of october surprise is important because it can be minute related. host: got you. guest: i could name you october surprises be -- before the term became a common one like lyndon johnson's bombing in north vietnam. announced at tv before the election which helped to propel you but humphrey with a near tie

-- hubert humphrey with the near tie with nixon. i will dispute one thing you said. that did not -- that was not the key event that produced jimmy carter's 10 point loss. he was behind by two to three points. already and that was more than enough, in that particular year, to elect one of reagan even if the collapse of the negotiations with the iranian regime had not occurred at the sunday before the tuesday election. and probably helped to bring in a pumpkin senate -- it's probably helped to bring in a republican senate. there were consequences to it but these things are always layered and they are more complicated than they appear on