university. live coverage today on c-span and our free mobile app, c-span now or onle at c-spaorg. host:fter a look at the news and viewer calls, education writer mark walsh previews today's supre court oral argument on affirmative action in college admissions. philadelphia inquirer's jonatn tamari discusses key races to tc in pennsylvania's midterm elections. more on pennsylvania midterm elections with meulenberg which discusses whats play in the keystone state. join us, "washington journal" is next. >> ♪ host: october 30 first, several

polls including one out from cbs predicting republicans will regain control of the house after next week's midterm elections. another poll, concerns about divided government. if that would lead to gridlock. for this next hour, we want to hear from you about the possibility of a divided congress and if it would be good for washington and the u.s. here is how you can call to let us know. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. for independents, (202) 748-8002 . if you want to text us this morning, (202) 748-8003. post on facebook and twitter and follow the show on instagram. cbs releasing their forecast when it comes to who will control the house after next

week's midterm election. they predict a 15 seat again according to their forecasters, saying the pole forecast republicans will clock in at 220 eight seats to democrats 207 seats, a 21 seat difference. the margin of error, 28 seats. the races remain in net. a surge in voter turnout could give democrats a shot at keeping control if novembers elections see a turnout of young color -- young voters and voters of color. if there is an uptick in turnout of white voters without college degrees, republicans could clinch a bigger win. that is from the hill, courtesy of cbs. if -- if so did a poll asking people of the possibility of a divided government. divided congress, specifically and what they thought and the

concerns they might have if that should occur. here is some of those results. 53% of americans worried about divided government, one party controls the senate, the other the house of representatives. 64% of democrats are more worried about this than republicans. concerns about either party having total control of congress are relatively even at 49% say they are somewhat worried democrats will remain control of both senate and house of representatives after midterms. similar percentage, 46%, worry republicans will take control of both chambers. predictable partisan divides of both three fourths republicans and democrats worry both chambers of congress. when it comes to this idea of divided congress, particularly after next week's midterm elections, do you think it will be good for not only washington, but those of us in the united

states. you can call us, (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. (202) 748-8002 for independents. you can text us to at (202) 748-8003. on our republican line, fort lauderdale, florida. good morning. caller: i guess the real question should be is, is this election about rejecting west wing economics and left-wing policies? that should be the question this morning. how come it is never that question? we have had two years of seeing a different trajectory of policy from this administration. the democrats are in full control of all the levers of government. the media cannot demagogue the issue. the american people are getting hit with a reality. the fantasy of left-wing

economics does not work. this went on in the late 1970's. we had the reagan revolution. so, those that believe in these policies are being hit with reality. this election is really about rejecting left-wing economics. host: you talked about trajectory. say the republicans do when the house. where do you see the trajectory going if democrats maintain control of the senate? caller: let me remind everyone, you are leaving $31 trillion to your grandchildren trade if we do not care about yourself, what do you think inflation will be in 10 years when the government has continued to print money? which party has been advocating for more government the last 50 years? host: that is al on our republican line. our two -- democrat line about this idea of divided congress after the midterms.

rob, what do you think? caller: good morning. thank you for c-span. what malarkey that previous caller, the inflation is global. the factors include coming out of covid and the ramped up need for everything from travel, cars , food, the whole gamut. what that caller just said is ridiculous. left-wing -- i mean, you are in an economic cycle. host: what happens if republicans take control of the house, democrats stay in control of the senate? what do you think of this idea of a divided congress? caller: i cannot really imagine that we are going to have -- i think we will, by the way, a congress dominated by can searcy -- by conspiracy theorists. those that just insist on the

big lie, the lie that trump somehow did not lose and that biden did not win. the conspiracy, the world we are moving into where one must show allegiance to falsehoods, that you have to show allegiance to alternative facts as kellyanne conway would have said. it is a scary world. if we cannot come to some sort of, get back to ourselves where, agree to disagree but certainly not have any disagreement over what are facts and what are not -- and the fact that we have militias now patroling ballot boxes and the like.

we have to get a handle on this. we have to come together. host: phil, orange park, florida. republican line. good morning. caller: thanks for letting me talk. mr. musk ought put her --bought twitter. mr. west owns power. mr. trump has his social media giant. if these three get together, i do not care if you've got are already -- rrd in front of your name. if these three guys, musk, west and trump get together, everything is going to straighten out. there is one man smiling down, that is mr. king. his dream has got to be realized. host: what do you mean by that? caller: he had a dream where whites and blacks could get together. host: i understand that part. how do you equate that to twitter and possibly republicans

controlling the house of representatives? caller: i do not care who controls it. if west, mr. musk and trump get together, i do not care who controls it. you are going to have to live by the rules. you are not going to have more fake news, no more of this shootings on the street and this kind of stuff. they are going to bring back law and order. host: some of you responding on social media. off of our facebook page saying, how can getting nothing done good for the country? \ alyssa saing, united we stand, divided we fall, there is a reason for that phrase. bill adding, no, not with republicans as is constitutively represented and led. our democracy is at risk, please do not vote for a election denier. i would like to see a historic turnout against the new normal democratic party.

future direction of this country, the possibility of republicans holding the house and democrats holding the senate. what that divided government, that divided congress would mean for washington and the if it is good for united states. you can call us on the lines, (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. independents (202) 748-8002. it was the house minority leader kevin mccarthy on fox news yesterday, spoke about what he sees happening if republicans take the house. he becomes house speaker. here is a portion of that from sunday. >> in nine days, we will roll out on the next day things we need to start happening then. you've got to curtail the runaway spending, curve inflation. you've got to become energy independent, opening up leases. that means greater production. you have got to take away the

discouragement or people to work to get the supply chain and productivity back in. these are pieces of legislation. on that first day, we will repeal 87,000 irs agents. i think governments should be here to help you, not go after you. the part about crime, you've got to secure your border. you have been on the forefront of education, educating america what is happening down there. or people on the terrorist watch weeps, fentanyl that is now killing our next generation of americans and it is in every single community. we have got to secure that border. you've got to stop defunding the police. you've got to find these woke prosecutors who are going to -- are they upholding the law, small crimes create big crimes. we are seeing it ravaging across this country. i will be in washington state later today. you are washing these blue

states, washington, oregon, new york, others. why are republicans rising in new hampshire, i think it is these policies. people are looking for common sense. not just republicans, independents and democrats. you are watching new people joining this party. an expansion of his party in hispanic communities across this country. this is an opportunity to take your country back and put it on a path where the next century will be ours. host: we will show you other responses from other legislators. some of you on twitter, a viewer said divided congress, divided government will guarantee the nation will remain in paralysis. it doesn't take a genius to figure out who that benefits. divided congress has no other pathway other than deadlock. nothing will get done, little money will be spent doing nothing. @cspanwj is how you want to reach out to us on twitter.

this is from lester. our line for democrats. good morning. caller: good morning. how are you? host: fine, thank you. caller: you just got mccarthy up there running these fear tactics. he ain't going to do nothing. he is republican. for the last four years, all they do is get up there, fear monger and live. america, if we allow these republicans to hold office, you thought we having it bad now. you wait until these peanuts get back into office. only thing they are talking is running their mouth, they do not care anything about the american people. anybody who vote republican get what they deserve, the republicans is not going to do anything for nobody but themselves. host: kathy is next, from new jersey. republican line. hi. caller: good morning. i think invited congress is good for our country -- divided congress is good for our

country. one party rule proves that it leads us towards socialism, which is not a good thing. host: when you say divided government, are you concerned that things will get done in washington if one party controls one party and the other controls the other? do you think anything will get done? caller: i do. i think it will put a check on our -- the congress controls the money. with the senate, i do not know. i think divided congress will have a better chance of getting what the people want. if the president does not sign it, it will not get done. i just believe that divided congress has been the way, it has always worked for the checks and balance. we cannot have one party rule

over everybody and everything and control the country. host: kathy in new jersey. hawthorne, new jersey. or from that says hole to show you saying among those worried democrats will keep control of the senate and house of representatives, there is a single point of concern. economy and inflation getting worse. 43% of respondents saying they are worried the economy and inflation will get worse if democrats take control of both chambers of congress. driving this belief are americans 55 and older. married americans, 51%. those earning over $100,000, 49%. other issues black far behind the economy, second of issues including -- lag far behind the economy, second issues including donald trump, no checks on president biden's powers, and declining confidence in government. let's hear from john, clifton

park, new york. independent line. caller: good morning. how are you? host: i am well, thank you. go ahead. caller: i do not believe --congress is going to accomplish anything. it is going to be more gridlock. as people mentioned. crime, law and order, things like that. your previous republican caller essentially said democrats want to defund the police. at the same time, there's 10 states with the highest level, highest rates of crime in this country who are already states. when you think about it, which states are really defunding the police? they do not have the money to enforce, to reinforce their establishment. they lead the country in a lot

of areas things. essentially, these statistics are not just personal protections. everybody can look these up if they have the gumption to. look the statistics up before you make these false accusations. and then decide who you want to be in congress. host: let's go to allen, brooklyn, new york. democrats line. caller: thanks very much. there are so many things to be said about this. would love to have more people of the other party in congress who are committed to their oath of office than they are to their party. people like kinsinger and liz cheney. we have nothing in the constitution about party. washington was clear when he left office, he warned against the danger. the idea that the constitutional role of the speaker of the house

is specified as one of the successors to the presidency in the event of death of higher officers. yet, we have the possibility of having gerrymandered states put in the speaker's position and next in line to the presidency after the vice president. someone who may have been selected by congressman, picked by maybe 40% of the population instead of 50% or 60% as a result of gerrymandering. our founders would never have tolerated that idea. it is a total operation, a distortion of what they intended. i would suggest even if it is not likely to pass soon, have democrats get up and say based on constitution's intent of who the speaker of the house should be, the person representing the majority of americans in the house, he should be picked by a congressman representing a majority of voters and not just someone representing the party

that won, majority of seats. right now, allowing a minority to control the senate and house is not a democracy anymore. host: let's go to greg in california. republican line. caller: hi. first of all, i wanted to say good morning. i have been watching c-span since we both had brown hair. [laughter] host: quite a while, then. [laughter] caller: thank you for being there for us. i want to say first off, i cannot foresee it being divided, congress at least, in the sense that there is a big red wave coming. whether like that idea or not. it is going to be as big as 2010, if not 1994. i just hope that when the republicans are in charge, they have a libertarian agenda that is focused on smaller government

, efficient government. also, investigating all the folks who have been investigating the trump administration for the past six years. i think that is what is galling. three or four colors back, my friend from newark on the democratic line talked about the big lies being sold to the american people. the big lie started in 2016 when hillary clinton never admitted defeat and said the election was stolen from her by donald trump. the big lie was by stacey abrams in 2018 that never admitted she lost the governor's race to governor kemp in georgia. the big lie has been perpetrated by all those folks who were pushing to impeach donald trump for having a phone call with the president of ukraine, but have not had a peep out of them over

president bidens phone call with the prayer -- crown prince of saudi arabia asking him to hold off on oil reduction until after the midterms. if that is not collusion, i am not sure what is. the democrats have been persecuting the trump family for the last six years and ignored any and all of the activities of hunter biden and james biden. it is that hypocrisy i think people get fed up with. elections are cyclical, they swing back and forth. i cannot foresee anything preventing the republicans taking over the house and senate. host: ok. that is greg in california. the hill takes a look at possibly what happens leadership wise should the house go to republican hands after next week's election. theyrite a republican takeover here would instantly shift the

lower chamber without lies of biden to his fiercest adversary. nowhere is that shift expected to be more pronounced than the judiciary committee, representative jim jordan from ohio, a staunch supporter of former president trump is poised to take the gavel. a founder and former head of the far right freedom caucus has made clear his intent to use the panel to launch what would certainly be the most high-profile investigations next year into operations of both the white house and the broader administration on that shortlist our probes to scrutinized mr. biden and his sons business in foreign dealing, the justice department's oversight of local school boards and the fbi's seizure of documents president trump took with him to mar-a-lago after leaving the white house. that is how things could shake out if republicans take the house. we are asking you this idea of the divided government, looking

at the possibility of the house going to republican hands and the senate staying in democratic hands. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. (202) 748-8002 for independents. sean patrick maloney, democrat from new york, the head of the democratic congressional campaign on the sunday show talked about the issues democrats are promoting this cycle and how they contrast with republicans. here is a portion from him yesterday. >> the top three issues when we talk to voters, economy, inflation and crime. half of voters according to our poll think democrats would cut police funding. i saw a add the ccc bought in your district, it opens with you talking to a policeman. you are aware of this. why hasn't your party been able to shake that perception of being soft on crime? >> because a lie gets halfway

around the world before the truth gets its shoes on. in my case, i brought $7 million for local police departments, supported the invest to protect act which would fund police departments in my district. all 125 officers. that is the most support we have done or police in 30 years. we should listen to police for begging us to do something about the gun violence, which is at the heart of so much rising crime. the maga crowd is in a pocket of the nra and will not touch -- bipartisan gun safety legislation, which we have had through the house. we have a record of results supporting good policing and going after gun violence. that is what people need to know. >> in our poll, 46% of voters believe rep -- republican policies will protect them. 53% of voters believe gas prices will go up under democrats. 21% say the same of the gop.

since you are talking strategy, in these closing days, how do you change these perceptions and how do you get out younger voters? >> people need to know we have a plan for cheaper gas, cheaper groceries, cheaper housing, cheaper health care. we have a plan for safer streets, supporting good policing and attacking gun violence, which is so much of the problem. and supporting our reproductive freedoms and voting rights. that -- those are real plans. you can take a poland take a snapshot at any given time. your former guest had no plan for the economy, gun violence and no plan to move our country forward, protecting voting rights, protecting reproductive freedoms. i would say, do not punish the people fixing your problems and do not reward the people trying to exploit the problems for their own political power. that is the difference right now.

we are engaged in the hard work of bringing our country forward. the other side is working on their own power. host: code a divided congress be good for the united states? park in michigan, democrats line. caller: how are you doing today? i want to touch on a couple of things. when you look at the republican message, it is always the democrats, the democrats, the democrats are the problem. but, they do not put forward any solutions. if you listen to what they say, they have no plan. they have no idea. they have no ways for the american people to actually look forward to something, especially during these midterms coming up. the democrats, we have our problems like any other party does. when you look at as far as the solutions that joe biden put forward, build back better and the infrastructure plan, republicans criticized that.

they have no plan of their own. if you look at -- they are running on this platform as far as the economy. what is their solution? what have they put forward towards it? they say, these people are the problem, but they cannot fix it themselves. they want to get elected in power. they have no idea for the country. as far as the border crisis, they keep talking about this. bush, clinton, obama, trump. they have all had border problems. not one solution has been put forward to fix borders. they want to blame the democrats for every problem. host: do you think these parties can work together, if that is the case after next week if republicans take the house? caller: of course. that is the only way things will get done is if people work together. if you continue to criticize one side when you have no ideas and

no solutions yourself, you are part of the problem. more than the problem itself. it is not going to get resolved. host: let's go to charles in washington, d.c. independent line. caller: good morning. this is my first time calling. i think a divided congress or government is good. i think both parties would be forced to work together and have to negotiate. in my opinion, between ronald reagan and bill clinton, they did well as presidents. they could get things done because they were working bipartisan-wise. we made more bipartisan bill writing. those not just written in back rooms. that way, we can have less extreme bills, more centrist type bills. host: that is charles. do you think both sides are going to be willing to yield to what they want ultimately to put

something out there that they can agree on in a bipartisan fashion? caller: if the house goes to the republicans and the senate stays the way it is, they will have to -- they are going to have to negotiate and work through to make things happen. if the house and senate go to the republicans, the presidency -- the only way a bill is going to -- unless, you know, it has worked across. host: that is charles and washington, d.c. a viewer on twitter, he says you want to socialist health care for rich republicans only? helen off of twitter says congress not invited as a single party congress, synonymous with autocracy. dictatorship, midterm elections may reveal americans do not want open borders, green energy but want a police force to deter the bad guys.

rebecca says candidates run for office for as many reasons as there are candidates. i hope more good ones get into office than bad ones. another viewer says, there are many a bill that would and if it you or me that would never be allowed on the senate floor. that twitter feed at cspanwj is how you can reach us there. if you want to text su can -- text us, you cannot (202) 748-8003. we showed you the results of that if so's poll that cited concerns of midterm elections if there is a divided congress. would that lead to gridlock? you can find that ipsos.com. republican line, hi. caller: i think on a divided congress, i do not think would be helpful at this point due to

the president we have in the white house now. i think it would be a gridlock. i feel we need the republican takeover at this point. i think when biden took office, there were many changes that hurt a lot of the american people. in regards to the southern border issue, the national drilling, the list could go on and on with everything. supply chain, so yeah. i do not think a divided congress would be a helpful move. on everything. so hopefully, the republicans have that red wave coming. that is all i had to say about that. host: that is a viewer from nevada. here is a viewer from california. , democrats line. caller: how are you doing? host: good. caller: i am upset about social

security, medicare and vets. the republicans want to take it away from us. my husband is 100% disabled vet. i am disabled. we are in our late 70's. who is going to take care of us? the children? do republicans realize the children may have to support the parents if we take this away? that is upsetting. we do not hear hardly anything about the elderly. we have young -- we hear about young people with six kids getting paychecks all the time. what about elderly people? host: if republicans take control of the house and democrats keep control of the senate, what do you think about divided government? caller: divided government is not doing well right now. especially -- my family was -- they came from russia. they say the dictators, fake

news, fake news, and many of the people. you only listen to what the dictator has to say. i do not think, things are not working out. i do not think it is going to long time to straighten things out again. host: fredericksburg, virginia. republican line. you are next. caller: i do not think anybody needs to be worried about anything in the united states except illegal immigration. the reports out of different think tanks are saying we have close to 100 million illegal immigrants. i do not see how that is possible. if that is true, and they say we have closer to 700 million people in the united states, i do not think anybody is connecting what is going on here. democrats should have no other problem with anything other than that. we have open borders. we have open borders in our

country. we have open borders. that is incredible. i love democrats, i love people. i can tell you this. open borders inc. it -- ain't it. host: a couple things to watch out for, particularly in this lead up to the midterm elections. things you should be watching out for. you can see in our twork when it comes to the senate race in new york, you can see senate mari leader chuck schumer debate hishaenger. sponsored by spectrum news, watch att 6:00 tonight on c-span. our c-span now app, at c-span.org. 6:00, georgian governor race. kemp and his challenger, stacey abrams go head-to-head in their final debate fo the election. heinover to the west coast in washingtoste. p.m., democratic senator murr a her challenger tiffany smiley taking on issues

in talking about those issues. 8:00 is where you can see that on our platform. you can see the round up of everything we have taken in this cycle at our campaign 2022 website c-span.org. grace in west virginia, independent line. caller: yes. i would like to make a couple comments. one is, the most important thing about the next election is about voters actually voting on the basis of reality rather than a bunch of nonsense that is been -- has been propagated on social media, the press. we need a congress -- we cannot afford government by people who believe various myths and

various kinds of political propaganda. there voters cast them on the basis of misinformation. that is where a government begins to get in trouble. host: are you saying that will take place if republicans win the house next week? caller: they are particularly -- at this point in time, to believing the big lie and other kinds of propaganda that has nothing to do with reality. i have heard a lot of it in the comments of people who had called in this morning. we as voters need to start getting real information from real journalists, instead of propaganda from social media and one thing or another. the congresspeople we elect need to be people who are

data-driven, who can make valid assessments of the real problems of this country and the real dangers that it faces. and cast their votes on the basis of logic and evidence, rather than simply getting in line with whatever lie each party is pushing at the moment. host: john, california, republican line. you are next on the topic of this divided congress and what that might result in next week. caller: i would like to say it would be a good idea to have a divided congress. i think a lot of things would get done. look at ronald reagan, key had a divided -- he had a divided and he got things done. i would like to respond to that guy from michigan. the republicans do have a plan, that is why they are gaining momentum. they want to explore more gas, drill more, bring the gas prices

down and address inflation. the gas prices affect packaging, it affects deliveries and everything related to our infrastructure. if we can bring those down, we can bring down inflation. that is one thing republicans are going to do different than democrats. they are going to close the border. they have had a track record of closing the border. the wall works. they are not coming through where the wall is built. they are coming through where the wall is not built. republicans plan to build a wall and secure the southern order is a solid plan. that is why they are getting momentum. host: if you think the senate remains and -- in democratic hands, do you think anything republicans put out will see the light of day as far as votes are concerned? caller: i think you will see bills written differently, without a lot of spending tacked onto it and stuff like that. i think you will see commonsense sense bills come out of the house.

if the senate rejects them, they are going to look bad because these bills will be good, solid bills that will help the american people. i think we are going to bring down inflation. i think we are going to have crime bills. the democrats -- they cannot put in a illegal immigration program together. i think this will put together immigration legislation. if the democrats do not vote for it, they have got to show their colors. i think the whole thing about showing colors and where you stand, i think a divided government will help that. host: that is john and california giving his thoughts, the personable -- the person responsible for getting republicans into the senate is rick scott, head of senate congressional campaign committee. he talked about midterms next week and what happens after that should republicans take control. >> we will pick up georgia, nevada, i have every reason to believe we will pick up arizona

and probably new hampshire. we have possibilities with smiley in washington, colorado, and connecticut. we have a lot in play. the democrat agenda is unpopular. the rallies i have been traveling, the chairman of the republican national committee, unbelievable support on the republican side. turnout better for republicans than democrats. i am optimistic we are going to win. we have rate candidates. >> i want to ask you about colorado. you said republicans have a shot in colorado. we spoke to the republican candidate, john o'day. he has called himself the republican no manchin and is not a fan of former president trump. are you concerned he will buck the party if he wins? >> i support joe day. i believe in people who believe in the republican agenda. he wants to secure the border.

i'm going to support joe day. the election is going to be about inflation, the border and crime. michael bennet is on the wrong side of that. i think joe day has every opportunity to win the election in colorado. >> if republicans take control of both the house and senate, what will you next two years look like? investigations, undoing what joe biden has done, what do you see? >> what you hope is we figure out how to get inflation down. we have to live within our means. we hope we get a secure border, we can get reform done. you hope we start supporting our law enforcement. i know republicans do. i hope the democrats start. i think they are going to get a rude awakening on november 8. high inflation, high crime, open borders, not what the american public wants. i hope republicans will pass

good legislation and joe biden will sign it. host: -- to question the legitimacy of 2020 election. the ranks of the house freedom congress has been recruiting members and is on track to post at least 46 next to her, an all-time high. the likely next us speaker kevin mccarthy, made clear the other trump out the lights will gain under his speakership. another perspective from the brocade's center rights, from a small government perspective, divided government typically has a small advantage. moving away from this toxic environmentill require politicians on both side of the aisle to work together to address our challenges. based on past efforts, i wo congress will only work together

to pass a counterproductive ild tax credit. i will hope they fd practical means of dealing with the crisis at the border. it will not get resolved without republicans and, democrats working together. let's hear from james in florida. democrats line. caller: hello. i believe in a divided government. i would like to apologize. for rick scott, the man who stole millions from welfare, medicare. that man once to take our social security away from us. how do republicans reason that? host: why do you believe in a divided government? caller: i think we need republican and democrat leaders in congress. host: why do you think that works better? caller: because they have to get along with each other. we are tired of the fighting. host: jeff in cleveland,

tennessee, republican line. hello. caller: good morning. how are you? host: i am fine, thank you. caller: i would like to say we already have a divided congress now. host: how did you --go ahead, you are on. caller: i would like to say, we already have a divided congress now. the only difference, if the republicans should take the house -- which, i hope and pray they do, it would still be divided but it would be divided in a better way, in my opinion. as far as this caller from michigan, there is not any way to say this, i think he is probably as dumb as his democratic governor. he, along with her, seems to believe that a lie becomes a

truth. you hear people blaming the republican party like they are the ones that are the liars. the democratic party is the liar. joe biden said he was campaigning in prison. host: you said congress is divided now. what do you mean by that? caller: i mean, should it become a tied vote, kamala harris is the one that decides the vote. host: ok. let's go to eric in tucson, arizona. independent line. hi. caller: yes. morning. this is eric. divided government is not working for us. it will never work because of orange hitler, who has come into play here. we know where he is coming from. the main thing these congressmen need to look at is the gun

violence in this nation. there is no deterrence that they even try to have. the only thing i can see is, do like some of those nations that, hey. you commit a crime, especially murder, you get chains. everyone looks at that as cruel and unusual punishment. it is all cruel punishment. host: senator chris croons, democrat from delaware, talked about his party and the chances of they winning after november. one of the things he talked about, issues like inflation and crime. here is a portion of that from yesterday. >> inflation is worse in the united kingdom and european union because of the ongoing impacts of the covid pandemic

and russia's war of aggression against ukraine. our inflation rates are lower. that does not make a difference of what you are seeing at the pump is high prices. gas prices have come down one dollar 20 five cents since summertime here and we are seeing progress in reducing gas prices. we have taken actions to address the prices at the grocery store. democrats have concrete plans. we have taken action to address the prices i hear from voters they care about. health-care costs. we have candidates on the other side of the aisle who said they would work to repeal what the president has just signed into law that would help with prescription drug prices. i think that is a sharp contrast. >> a lot of that doesn't kick in for years now. millions have already voted as they wait to see how those pieces of legislation play out. they say, democrats are in trouble because they nominated too many candidates with views

on crime, immigration and the economy that are all but impossible to defend in competitive races this year. how worried are you about how far the progressive element of your party has pulled to the left, how that is resonating with voters and what that may potentially cost in the midterm? >> joe biden has a strong record on crime as president. he said, i do not support in defunding the police, i support funding the police. the american rescue plan provided funding for state and local governments to keep law enforcement officers. in delaware, we have three police agencies that just got a federal grant, as have hundreds of others across the country to hire officers. host: code a divided congress be good for the united states? let's hear from another tennessean. on our democrat line, this is

charles. caller: yes, i would prefer a democratic congress. i do not think it is going to happen. i think it could work. he could check and balance each other. look at what the republicans are proposing here. can you hear me? host: you are still on. go ahead. caller: look at what republicans are proposing. republicans and democrats, we all have people on social security. this is going to be devastating to the older people. look at what we are going to do to the college kids. college kids better get out and vote if they want -- vote. freedom is at stake here. if we didn't have what happened in washington on the sixth, we wouldn't have what is happening now. look out for the seniors and old

people. the republicans and democrats have people on social security. thank you, have a good day. host: youngstown, ohio. publican line. this is dan. caller: republican -- divided government will not work if you've got somebody ruling by executive orders. there was never a vote taken to open the border. joe biden decided to open the border and the democrats went along with it. everything that is happening here is by executive order. let me give you a dose of reality. terrorists have come into the country. they are coming to the country and are so stupid that they do not know the border is wide open, they can walk into the country. do you think they are not going to do it? we are in danger here, it is because of the policies of joe biden. in addition to this, joe biden

just went on television the other day and said the price of gas was five dollars. he said, the gas price was five dollars when he took office. truth is, the price of gas, the average price according to aaa was -- host: sorry about that. that's hear from don in michigan, independent line. caller: good morning, pedro. how are you? host: i am fine. caller: divided government is better than one side in the majority, personally. right now, our economy is the worst i have ever seen it. i voted for carter. i lived through the gas line, it was horrible. right now, when they shove the oil down, the oil industry is actually the lifeblood of the world. i am all for green, but you

cannot just shut off the oil. you have to go into green energy slowly and make a plan. this administration has not done that. therefore, we have inflation that i have never seen before. host: how do you think a divided government changes that? caller: i think it forces people to work together and make decisions for the whole country. both sides putting in their input and listening to one another. host: don in michigan, giving us his thoughts. we will take a few more calls. i wanted to show you what was said yesterday about the attack on paul pelosi from last week. it was on the 29th at speaker of the house nancy pelosi sent out this tweet saying, please know our prayers and warm wishes from so many are a comfort to our family. they are helping make paul -- give progress to his recovery.

it was yesterday on the sunday show minnesota democrat senator amy klobuchar was on nbc, talked about the attack on paul palouse, describing what he says as -- she says is the cause. >> a vicious attack in which he has been villainize for years. surprise, it has gone viral and it was violent. it is important to note if you mention, the homeland morning this has been going on for years. the attacks on her and this group of maga extremists who are putting up candidates on the ballot that donald trump supports. have been not ending when donald trump office. they have been expanding into our politics. many people have stayed silent during this time, not liz cheney , not adam kissinger, within their own party. it is important people realize

it is not just this moment of this horrific attack, but we have seen violence perpetrated throughout our political system. people showing up at polling places, intimidating election officials. one in six local election officials have received threats of violence. doubling the number of threats against judges in the last four year period. you've got elected officials and congress 10 times the amount of threats in a five-year period. this has to end. host: that was democrat amy klobuchar, democratic center -- senator from minnesota. -- was asked about it and talked about what she saw behind it. here is a portion of that. >> for many democrats, the attack on nancy pelosi's husband represents the all but inevitable conclusion of republicans increasingly violent

and threatening rhetoric toward their political opponents. a lot we do not know about this case, but what do you make of that accusation? >> i think that is unfair. this is eight arranged individual. you cannot say, people say let's fire closing, let's do violence. that is unfair. we need to recognize violence is up across the board. we had an assassination attempt against brett kavanaugh. democrats did not repudiate, joe biden didn't talk about the assassination attempt against brett kavanaugh. if this were not paul pelosi, this criminal would probably be on the street tomorrow. we saw lisa and attacker was on the street after he attacked him. we wish paul pelosi recovery, we do not like this at all and we do not want to see attacks on any politician or many political background. host: a few more calls on this idea of a divided congress. is this good for the united

states? california, democrats line, this is tom. caller: thank you for taking my call. i do not have a problem with invited congress, we have had them for decades. i remember when both sides would debate the issue. they would come up with a compromise, they were working for the american people. who are they working for now? are they working for the american people, or some small, political group within their own party? the other thing i would like to comment on, the bill to repeal social security. i do not know who came up with the idea of, you can repeal something we have been paying into -- this is not an entitlement. social security was set up like an insurance plan to make sure people would have something to live on after they are retired. they think congress owes the people, all of us money they

have been taking from social security's. i do not know how you can possibly say we are going to end it when we have been paying into it. host: i know there is a proposal out from a couple of republicans on the idea of how social security will be fought out. it has been making news over the last few weeks. jim in st. louis, missouri. republican line. hello. you are on. caller: i want to make a comment. the divided congress would be a great thing. joe biden needs to be stopped. when people talk about inflation, to help inflation would be to drill for more oil and fracking, which he keeps talking about that there is permits out there -- or, leases, that they give no permits. refineries, they will not have

more built. and, the open borders. one other thing, when people are talking about the violence and the rhetoric from the republicans and what went on with trump, it started when hillary clinton and the rest of them said he was some russian agent. that went on for five years. your station, cnn, nbc, kept putting it on, putting it on, putting it on. there has never been a total response of, we made a mistake and we should have researched those things before we put it on air. host: back to your original point. do you think republicans are going to work with -- if the democrats remain in power in the senate, do you think they are going to work on those issues like immigration? caller: i think it might be possible if chuck schumer do not

dig into the ground. apparently, every time the democrats have control, when they are talking about the border and stuff -- maybe they didn't like the way donald trump handled it, but these people coming across, he sent them back to mexico and then researched their claims. just turning people lose, millions of people into the united states. where you have veterans on the street. that is nothing, but you are going to put in people to come into our countries, put them into hotels, give them health care, give them free phones. it is costing the taxpayers billions. host: one more call. this is minnesota, independent line. caller: good morning. hi. divided congress. if the partition, the republicans would gain is used

to distract and investigate the investigators and claimed the field for the 2024 elections, i do not think it is good for the country. if they really cooperate and do something, which i have not seen the last, whatever, 2, 3 years -- then, no, it is not good for the country. host: minnesota, independent line finishing off this round of calls. all of you who participated, thanks for doing so today. guests joining us at the morning, our first is mark walsh, the can to beating writer for education week. he will talk about the supreme court hearing, two cases about affirmative action at colleges and universities. later on in the program, we look at key battleground states, this

election cycle leading up to this election. later on as jonathan tamari of the philadelphia inquirer. ♪ >> this election day, november 8, the balance of power is at stake. will republicans retake the house? can republicans maintain control the senate? from now until election night, follow c-span coverage of key races, with our coverage of debates, rallies, and candidate events. the c-span now app, on demand on our website, ad our data rich tapes. ♪ >> be up-to-date in the latest

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♪ >> there are a lot of places to get political information, but only on c-span do you get it straight from the source. no matter where you are from or where you stand on the issues, c-span is america's network. unfiltered, unbiased, word for word. if it happens here or here or here, or anywhere that matters, america is watching on c-span. powered by cable. >> washington journal continues. host: this is mark walsh. he is a contribute in writer for education week. he is also a contribute writer for the ada journal. he is here to talk about the supreme court as they hear cases day on affirmative action. good morning. the cases at hand both deal with universities. can you set those up for us? guest: this is the long-awaited battle over the future of race

consideration in admissions, affirmative action. we are talking about harvard university, the oldest private college in the united states, and the university of north carolina, the oldest public institution of higher learning in the united states. both are very selective, both like to have diverse student enrollment, and they both consider race in their somewhat complicated admissions plan and program. they are defending those plans against a challenge by the group "students for fair admissions," which has been fighting this for many years now. host: the group put out a statement leadingto the case. they wrote, "there is formative action and the cases are not

nging pipelines to improve underperg high schools and outreach to underrepresented students, accounting for student ability. no one is questioning their legality. the practices by harvard and unc, challenged by the group, our racial preferences that make some students with weak credentials and rejecting others with strong credentials just by what racial box they checked." guest: the challengers, this is an organization where they don't have individual plaintiffs in this case, but they do allege that harvard in particular has a plan that discriminate against asian american applicants. the federal district court found there was no discrimination. if you look at the statistics

for student preparedness, they would say that higher qualified black applicants -- i'm sorry, lower qualified black applicants are accepted at a higher rate than asian american applicants who are more higher qualified under harvard's own admission criteria. but again, two federal courts have upheld harvard. one held up the university of north carolina's plan. the supreme court kind of grabbed that to be heard before a federal appeals court could rule. host: what we know about the group? guest: it is founded by edward bloom, who is well-known around supreme court litigation. he has been involved in voting rights challenges, shelby county case which greatly limited the

voting rights act, the formula that required certain states and localities have their voting changes approved. he has challenged affirmative action, including the university of texas case, which he ultimately lost, or his organization ultimately lost. there is a narrative that he is this one person, and he is, a former stockbroker, and someone who ran for congress who is not a lawyer. there's been some pushback about the narrative because he gets funding from a lot of right wing and other sources. host: our guest is with us until 8:35. if you want to ask him about the cases to be heard in the supreme court, you can do so. republicans, (202) 748-8001.

democrats, (202) 748-8001. independents, (202) 748-8002. after this show, you can stay with our channel if you want to listen to those cases. one talked about the constitutionality of those things. guest: harvard university, as a private institution, is not really governed by the equal protection clauses of the 14th amendment, but it is covered by title vi of the civil rights act of 1964, which prohibits race discrimination. the university of north carolina would be governed by both, the equal protection clause and title vi. there has been some discussion among legal experts about whether that might lead to differing rulings. in that famous 1978 case that struck down quotas that allow

colleges and universities to consider race for creating diverse student enrollment, the court kind of equated the two provisions. we will see what the discussion is today between the two cases on the current thinking on that. host: what is the thinking on the supreme court on these types of cases and how that is because the supreme court has change based on who's coming in and off the court. guest: as i said, the one case is when the court first considered this issue with higher education level. as i say, that was a complicated result. justices were of similar opinion, but the justices of the court became the controlling companion. most experts would say that they endorsed and embraced student

diversity as a rationale. roughly 25 years later, 2003, there are two cases coming to the court from the university of michigan, one involving the undergraduate college, the other law school. the court struck that down. but the law school considered race as part of a holistic process in the supreme court. it was held in opinion by sandra day o'connor, and she wrote in that case that it has been 25 years and we expect that 25 years from now, from 2003, these kinds of measures will no longer be necessary. but in the meantime, there have been a few other cases. by the time this decision comes out, where 20 years out and we have a different court. we know at least three members of the court are highly skeptical of these kinds of uses

of race that they accepted in the case that upheld the university of texas's program. they have a stand against affirmative action by chief justice roberts and justice clarence thomas. now, two members of the majority are gone. justice anthony kennedy retired and it justice ruth bader ginsburg died in 2020. they were replaced by more conservative members, who have some track record of skepticism about these, but they have not specifically rule. host: the latest justice, kentucky brown jackson, has ties harvard. how will she respond? guest: she will respond by not participating. she will actually sit out the harvard argument, which will be held second, because she will take the bench this morning in

court. the unc case is getting a little bit more attention because they were consolidated. she will take the bench for the university of north carolina case. she is practically said this at her confirmation hearing, that it is because of this that she was on harvard's board of overseers, one of its covering bodies, until just earlier this year. she is recusing herself of the harvard case. that is one less vote harvard case. we don't know if that is going to be significant and how the court handles the two cases were not. host: mark walsh of the ada journal here. you can hear the oral arguments on c-span. george in st. louis, missouri, independent line, your first up for our guest. go ahead with your question or comment. caller: i read recently in

article advocating affirmative action for disadvantaged people of all races, rather than making it by race. it said 71% of the hispanic and black students at harvard are from fairly well-off families. it makes sense to me to do it that way instead of by race. what do you think about that? guest: this is an argument that is made by a fair number of people, that instead of considering race, if you want to bring about diversity, you can do that without taking race into account. you can look at socioeconomic status and that will bring a certain amount of disadvantaged white families and it may be asian american students, as well as potentially being an advocate

for saying you can achieve your diversity goals by doing this. but the universities say no, it is not going to get us there. there is evidence in the states that do not permit the consideration of race, like california and michigan, that maybe you can do this. but the entire structure of american higher education wants to continue to be able to consider race for now. host: an economic professor from harvard writes a piece about affirmative action saying it does not work, but it could. is not targeted at the individuals. because of disadvantage, 71 percent of harvard students come from wealthy backgrounds. it is a true meritocracy. how can minority applicants with lower scores but high potential be distinguished from those who have just low scores? the answer is simple, use data more rigorously. the problem is not affirmative

action, per se, but lazy implementation of it. you cannot read his work in the "washington post." do you have a sense of if this will be part of their argument or a sense of what the argument will be? guest: that has been part of the argument. one of their leading experts in both cases someone has brought this about quite thoughtfully. he makes these arguments about socioeconomic status. in the question of, what kind of underrepresented groups do we want? that has been a major set in these cases. university of texas was once arguing that we want not just

poor black students, but black students from wealthy families, essentially. so, what do you mean by diversity, that's the big question in these cases. host: marilyn, independent line. -- maryland, independent line. caller: i would like to see the supreme court today or in the next few months turn back the clock on racial admission and correction of the inequity. to expect congress could someday reverse that -- can we expect congress could someday reverse that and what can we expect the supreme court's rulings will have on the success of a

congressional remedy? thank you. guest: that's a good question. as i was talking a little while ago about the distinction between title vi of the civil rights act, which was an act of congress, the court ruled largely on the basis of that. congress could act and make some changes, and there are arguments in this case that because congress has not responded to rulings upheld, the consideration of race has essentially gone along with that. but if the court makes a constitutional ruling based on the 14th amendment, there's a not -- there's not a whole lot conversed can do. host: michael from florida, democrats line, hello. caller: hello. you have such an interesting mix of supreme court and then education focus. i am down here in desantis's florida. obviously, there is some leeway

on the supreme court. down here, we are deciding things when it comes to education. we had grandparent genocide by covid-19. one and 100 kids, according to scientific americans, lost a primary caregiver to covid. this has a huge fact -- a huge effect, but we don't talk about how baboons will respond to a crying infant by grabbing them. we had primary caregivers dying. we heard people say on videotape that they were intent -- that does not require a degree in law . they are not calling this out, this social signaling writ large. host: ok, michael, we will leave it there. guest: i think i will leave it

there. florida is a place where a lot is going on with education law. but the caller's will not come up today. host: it depends on how the court decides on this. is it just universities and places of higher education that are affected, or it is a go further than that? guest: it does probably depend on how the court decides the scope of the ruling, but certainly k-12 groups have boundaries. they are concerned and already restricted on how much they can use race a little more than universities are. but they can do a few things, and they're worried about these briefs. one thing when it comes to a wider view, for those who are willing to settle in for a few hours today and listen to the arguments, you will hear about brown versus the board of education i think a fair amount.

it was about the in elementary and secondary schools. the challenges here have said that it essentially called for colorblindness in consideration of race. there's been a lot of pushback on that from the defenders of affirmative action. you are going to hear about brown v. board of education. host: republicans, (202) 748-8001. democrats, (202) 748-8000. independents, (202) 748-8002. k-12 groups, what's their concern? guest: there are instances where they still take race into account when deciding where to put a school. that something the supreme court said they could do after this landmark decision in 2007 which

otherwise kind of struck down the voluntary consideration of race when it comes to assigning students to schools, like you're going to this one, you are going to that one, drawing boundaries. there are also instances of selective schools at the k-12 level, magnet schools, so there are cases in the suburbs of washington, in boston, san francisco, new york, where sometimes race is taken into account. that is probably going to be affected by this as well. host: harvard, it looks like theyut out as part of their ement about this case, the supreme court will review the unanimous decisions of the lower federal courts. it puts at risk 40 years of legal precede university flex ability - bank. ll a bang. -- flexibility.

neither the court of findings or the application of the supreme court precedents to those findings warrants further review. can you expand on that? guest: harvard defended what has been doing. the university of north carolina defended what it has been doing. they one in the lower courts. these judges knew their rulings were going to be reviewed very likely by the u.s. supreme court. they were meticulous and they went through the evidence. there were trials in both cases at the district court level.

in both cases, the judges said students have some good points. there are some things to be concerned about, but ultimately, there was no discrimination here. >> i tell you one thing, if we

as america would learn to stop with the black, white, black and why, and learn to love each other as people, we would not have to go through all of this crab that this man here is talking about. i am so sick and tired of white people talking about black people. host: hold on, caller. we're talking about the supreme court cases and reflecting on the reporting aspect of that, just to clarify that for you. mr. walsh, when it comes to what we are going to see play out in the court, tell us a little bit about what you are expecting, what you're watching for coming from the various justices. guest: once justice jackson, the newest justice, made clear that she would not be part of the harvard case, the university of north carolina case is going to go first, there are different aspects about that case being a

public university, a university that once prohibited black students, african-american students from even applying. there is a history there. but we are going to hear in both cases a lot of talk about the military's need to have diversity in its ranks. there may be talk of business. those were kind of influential in the machine cases. we are going to hear a lot about the particulars of the particular plans and we will hear from quite a few people over several hours. but we should know, i think, by the end of it where this is headed. host: university north caroline

of putting out a statement applicants based on dozens oftes factors, including academic performance, essays, andther considerations such as socio-and makeishop socioeconomic -- such as socioeconomic status. guest: with students, we have arguments that race consideration permeates the process from the port of trying to recoup. the university would say no, it is a factor in a very small percentage of cases.

if a student chooses to disclose their race, while they are certainly asked, but the government does not require that. there is a brief in this case about david bergstein, if you're interested in looking that up. host: why is that interesting? guest: because the races we see similar to the census and other forms, why do we use those? that is a federal government decision in the 1980's to try and be more consistent with race statistics and so forth. some argue that these classifications don't make sense. host: mark walsh of the education week and ada journal. democrats line, go ahead. caller: hello, thank you. am i on? host: you are. go ahead. caller: thank you.

this is my first time calling. i'm asian american. what i learned about those cases , given all the information about this, they say internal studies and harvard actually found out that when it comes to race, they do have a formula to the overall scores. so, to subtract the number of asians, they actually assign negative scores for asian applicants. the personality score is leadership, those kinds of things, so all of that actually. to know that is really hurtful for us. if they want to increase diversity, it is hard to define diversity and what they want to achieve with the implementation

of those practices. if you look into that, it is really against people based on their race. could you comment on that? host: trinity, thank you. guest: there is part of the case that there is a personal score in the valuation of applications . the charge from "students were fair admissions" is that african-americans were given lower scores, somehow suggesting that they had lower personal qualities, and i forget all the categories that made that up. the federal district court rejected that there was any discrimination with regard to that. when we talk about the university north carolina once excluding black students, and harvard has a history of trying to reduce its jewish student

population, and has not acknowledge that, and it did that for a time by working the numbers, not just saying we want to reduce the number of jewish students. those are legitimate concerns for race by the challengers. it's just that the courts have held that harvard did not discriminate in that way. host: catherine in minnesota, independent line. caller: i have been hearing about discrimination and the different factors. i guess i'm concerned about how affirmative action does this, because i think we have no way of making sure that whites aren't disadvantaged. i came from a very poor white background and we did not have a lot, and i don't feel like i was given any preference or that sort of thing. i think especially now, there

has been such an increase in diversity that people when they see someone who is poor and white, they don't see them as needing balance also. i guess that is just a concern. a lot of these affirmative action efforts, they say in a lot of ways they got rid of it in california because it just wasn't working. if you let students that aren't ready for college into college, it is not going to make them successful at it, and i'm concerned about that, just wasting the effort, although i do want to see some balance. i want to see some effort for kids who maybe don't have top scores or a lot of money or things like that, and it would give them this advantage. i would like to see them get some support because if they had the brain cells and they deserve to be there, then they should be there. just letting people in based on color, to me it just seems like it is a flawed response.

i guess i like to see everyone have the opportunity. i think that is where we're going to get our strength, letting everyone who deserves to be there, be there. i don't mean that anybody doesn't deserve to be there, but some people may need to do more work before they are ready. host: you put a lot out for our guest. catherine from minnesota, thank you for your call. let's let our guest respond to that. guest: i understand our concern and it is a valid concern. a couple of things. one, and california, it was a matter of popular vote where they eliminated use of race in admissions. it is just tricky when it comes to selective colleges about who deserves to get in, because no one is entitled to admission. harvard, looking at the figures here, 35,000 applicants for 1600 spots in the class of 2019, which is probably the class graduating this year.

university of north carolina, 44 thousand applicants for 4200 spots. north carolina is a public institution. they can only give about 18% to out-of-state, so they have a lot more out-of-state applications. but they are trying to build what they feel are diverse enrollments in many respects. geographically, socioeconomically, and racially is a tricky business. host: joe in maryland, republican line. we are running short on time, but go right ahead with your question or comment. caller: to be clear, you said i'm on the republican line. i meant to be independent. but with that said, thank you. we are so blessed, all of us? host: we are running short on time, so go ahead quickly with your question or comment. caller: my comment would be that i have lived in the dmv,

washington, d.c. my whole life. i've been involved in politics whole life. i believe we will get it figured out eventually. i believe that goodness will win . trying to pick others over others has never worked. we are all mostly victims of busing, unless you are able to afford to stay away from it. but you are still a victim of busing because now you've got one neighborhood and a suburban neighborhood, so we are all victims of whatever goes on. host: we have to leave it there. we will let our guest respond to that as he wishes. guest: busing is something that takes place in k-12 schools. we are dealing with the legacy of that in some places. but it is a divisive and difficult issue. we will see how the court deals

with that at the higher education level. host: if you want to see his work on education week, he is also a contributing writer for the ada journal. guest: that is the magazine of the american bar association. i'm just a freelancer for that. i do not represent them. but i am covering the court. host: mark walsh, thank you for your time. coming up, we are going to start a week of looking up at various battleground states with this midterm election. our first stop is pennsylvania. we will start with the philadelphia inquirer's not then tomorrow. latern in the show, christopher boric discusses upcoming elections. those calls coming up on "washington journal." ♪

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>> there are a lot of places to get political information, but only at c-span do you get it straight from the source. no matter where you are from or where you stand on the issues, c-span is america's network. unfiltered, unbiased, word for word. if it happens here or here or here, or anywhere that matters, america is watching on c-span. powered by cable. ♪ >> "washington journal" continues. host: we will focus on key battleground states food will focus on wisconsin, arizona, and other states today. joining us to start this discussion is jonathan tamari of the philadelphia inquirer. he is there political reporter. thank you for joining us. tell us what is at play as of today. guest: you got two major races

that have national implications, both at very different stages. the governor's race looks like the democrat over republican. but this is really one of the most consequential elections possibly in the whole country. there is a republican legislature, so republicans are said to with the governor's office as well. they could drastically change abortion laws in the state, voting laws, and the winner of where the governor's will point the secretary of state, who oversees the certification of the 2024 presidential election. as we all know, the 2020 pennsylvania election results were challenge. they will be a major swing state in 2024. oversight and control over that election apparatus is at stake. at the moment, it looks like josh schapiro has a pretty great lead. we have seen that in pennsylvania before, so we have to wait for that real results. the next race that is also of national importance is the

senate race. that one looks and can between democrat john fetterman and republican men met oz -- mehmet oz. this is the opportunity to gain a seat anywhere in the country. it could very well determine who controls the senate next year. there is a lot of money pouring in nationally, a lot of attention on this race. at the moment, it really looks like it could go either way on election day. host: where are both candidates getting support within the commonwealth? what parts of the state are at play there? guest: from what we see, the breakdowns are pretty typical from republicans and democrats. they're getting support in suburbs which have become increasingly blue over the last few years. the more conservative places, the central part of the state, the northeast and southwest have trended more republican and appear also to be still staying that way.

they've tried to make inroads in the other person's territory. federman made a big deal about being a democrat that he says can appeal in rural areas. oz has been in campaign events in philadelphia. he clearly made an appeal to suburban voters by talking about crime and trying to portray himself as something more moderate than other republicans. i think we are yet to see that make a big dent with the races so close, that if one candidate could shave even a couple percentage points off here and there, it could really make up a difference. host: we saw that playoff between both gentlemen last week. how does that go into who pulls ahead? guest: we are waiting to see that. it is essentially tied going into that debate. by most accounts, it was a difficult night for john fetterman. people may or may not know he is recovering from a very significant stroke that he had in may. he seems to be cognitively ok, but he has speech problems and

auditory problems. he struggled to really make his points during that debate. his speech was halting at times and he struggled to respond to criticisms. we are waiting to see some polling to see what effect that had. did that really move voters or has there been a lot of polling after the debate that has become public yet? there are times that folks watching, we have one impression, and voters have a different impression. a lot of people think it was a bad night for john fetterman. while it was already a close race, we are waiting to see some data that can show us whether that is really backed out. host: our look at pennsylvania as we started week long look at battleground states leading up to the midterm elections. if you want to ask our guess questions about how pennsylvania is playing out, it is (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. and (202) 748-8002 for independents. if you are a resident

pennsylvanian want to give us a call us at (202) 748-8003. you can also text as well. what about the separation of the governor's race between republican and democrat? guest: there are probably a few factors there. josh schapiro is someone who has won a number statewide, but he has been someone who is just admired from a political perspective for his own skill at building coalitions to being a relentless campaigner, fundraising, doing all the basics of politics, even gaining and building support from republicans in pennsylvania. he has just run a relentless campaign and seems to know what works in pennsylvania. he also has the benefit of running against doug mastery anna, who is a pretty far right figure for anyone, particularly a state as moderate as pennsylvania. he has very far reviews on issues like abortion and voting, and other topics.

because of that, he has really struggled to raise money. he has run virtually no television ads in this past week did -- past week. pennsylvania is such a big state, there are so many media markets, so many people to reach, it is not something you can really win by knocking on doors spared you have to be on tv. schapiro has been the only one on tv. he has been running an efficient campaign. they seem to think it is a lost cause and are not putting money behind mastriano. oz is personally wealthy and has put his own money on television to compete with federman. federman is well-funded from small donors he has had to add his campaign. it is pretty evenly matched between the two of them with the money they have. national republican groups has poured money into that state to support oz. oz has made an attempt since the

primaries to head toward the metal, to swing the voters who are indecisive in pennsylvania. he is not just financially, but strategically different from mastriano. that looks like a classic pennsylvania race, and can for the republicans. host: we're going to see other candidates coming in. we saw president biden and the vice president last week. we will see them again. i think president obama also expected to pay a visit. i think former trump is going to visit as well. guest: this coming weekend is going to look like a very busy week and, as it often is in pennsylvania this time of year. president trump is coming out from that southwestern area where he had a lot of success with rural working class voters. he will be up there to try to rally republican support. president biden, we expect him to be back. he was just there this we can. president obama is expected to be in.

the final details have not been firmed up yet, but we expect him to come. we expect obama and biden will likely go to democratic strongholds. resin biden's ratings overall are not great, but if he goes to deeply boot -- deep blue areas, he can likely turn i democratic base. the fact that you are seeing the current president and former president, and former president before that are coming to pennsylvania, it tells you how important these elections are both now and it's all most like we are seeing a proxy for 2024, when the state will be crucial to the next presidential election. host: for those of you who live in pennsylvania, we have a line for you. that is where our first call comes from. mike, you are on with our guest. go ahead. caller: good morning, gentlemen. i am first going to say that i'm going to support federman basically for the fact that yeah, he did have a stroke, but for the whole state, the

republicans pick a guy from new jersey who hasn't even lived in pennsylvania. i think that should be something that is brought up to all the viewers. how can you support someone from new jersey, who just moved into his mother-in-law's? he says he cares about pennsylvania, but i just don't see that as a legitimate claim. guest: that has certainly been one of the major weights that weighed on oz's campaign he spent more than 30 years living in north jersey, working in new york as a surgeon, and he moved to pennsylvania in late 2020, where became clear that there was going to be an open senate seat after the current person said they were going to run for reelection. they argue it goes to a bigger issue when they say that oz is not trustworthy or not authentic , and he is basically in this for himself, that's the argument.

i will say his wife's family grew up in suburban philadelphia. he went to the university of pennsylvania for his medical degree and business degree. he said that he cares about the state, obviously, but democrats have been hammering this fact that he did not move back to the state until this senate seat came open. his image has really taken a beating. federman's has, too, but oz has been much worse in polling. immigrants hope that is maybe the thing that sways these undecided voters in the final days, that they don't feel like maybe they can trust oz, and maybe that pulls them toward federman and makes a decisive difference. host: a neighbor to pennsylvania, delaware is our next stop. that is frank on the republican line. go ahead. caller: i would just like to say that when it comes to these democrats, they don't care who they put in office, just as long as he says yes when they want to pass a bill or ask for money, or whatever.

biden is a very good example. he can't do nothing. look at him. he is impossible. now he's going to pride to put -- going to try to put federman in there, too. come on, wake up. thank you so much. guest: federman has said that he would be the 51st vote for a number of things that democrats have tried to do. he would end the filibuster, he would vote for the women's health protection act, which was codified in roe v. wade. he wants to vote for the proactive, which is a significant bill for union laws. he would support much of the democratic agenda. he has supported bidens agenda, so that is his addition. he is putting that out there. host: some of the ads have been playing out in pennsylvania, with the federman and oz campaign. let's start with john fetterman. >> this is joe harris from stew

country. it has been a while since we had a senator from western pa. those years have not been great. washington forgot us. that is why i am with john fetterman. he has been fighting here for 20 years. washington sees us as rugged. john sees steel. john will fight to make more stuff here, cut taxes on working people, and make sure no one forgets our home. >> i am john fetterman and i approve this message. >> pennsylvanians are in pain. i see it in your faces, your eyes. inflation is hurting everyone. gas prices, food prices, retirement savings, diminished. john fetterman would raise everyone's taxes, making inflation that much worse. we need more balance and less extremism in washington. i'm not a politician, i am a heart surgeon. more importantly, a husband and a dad. i'm ready to improve people's lives. that is what doctors do. i am dr. oz and i approve this message. host: the statements made in those ads, when it comes to john

fetterman, he talked about this idea of making things and that washington forgot us. that has been a theme of his campaign. guest: exactly. he picked two really good examples for how this campaign is running. john's campaign has been less about specific legislation and specific policies, and more about this feeling, one that honestly trump tapped into in a different way, that there are communities in pennsylvania that have been left in high -- left behind. him kind of saying that he is going to fight for these forgotten communities in a very different way than trump, but kind of try to reach some of the same voters in the same sentiment that a lot of economic prosperity's and cultural power has gone to these big cities and that other places have been lost. he is making that case from a democratic perspective, which is interesting because you haven't seen any democrats make that

effectively, may be given the fact that he is the mayor of a very small steel town outside of pittsburgh that has struggled economically. he has had a different image than most politicians and maybe he can reach those voters in ways that other democrats from big cities can't. do you want to talk about allies? -- always -- oz? host: yeah, go ahead. guest: he is talking about being against extremism, being a doctor that is pragmatic. that is the kind of tactic that usually works for republicans in pennsylvania. they have a slight registration disadvantage in the state. overall registration in slightly more democratic. they need to reach swing voters in order to when. that is clearly what he is attempting with these ads. host: a tear from another pennsylvanian. this is rod, hello. caller: good morning.

just like the wizard of oz, dr. oz is a fraud. he is a snake oil salesman and he has been sued by many other organizations. at least john fetterman, he may have had a stroke, and the debate was really a joke. when you are a senator, you have more than 15 seconds to look over a bill and then pass it. that was really kind of a disingenuous way too grade a potential senator. i think that pauses really going to stand for the trump administration. four years of term, western pennsylvania has not gained anything. all the promises of infrastructure never happened and they probably never would have happened. even if he had had a second term. the guy was a joke. so, yeah, let's keep john

fetterman in their. i think some of the advertisements against him were definitely phony, especially when it said he didn't work. he worked. he was a teacher, a mayor, lieutenant governor for eight years. he paid taxes. they say he didn't, but he had to pay taxes if he was getting payroll. host: thank you, caller. we want to clarify some issues. guest: talking about them it which questions of awes and -- oz and the way those things go. there has been attempts to cut john fetterman's working-class image. he was a mayor, $150 per month was his only salary pair his family supported him significantly in his 30's and deep into his 40's, basically prop him up financially, helped him purchase his home, pay his

expenses. we don't have the exact extent of that because it was only disclosed for one year, considering a ballpark of about $50,000. we don't know if other years were more or less. that is the way republicans have tried to undercut him. as the caller said, john fetterman would argue that he was doing work, even if it did not pay a lot of money. he was serving a community, working as mayor and a nonprofit as well. he said he could have went on and made a lot of money, but he chose to dedicate himself to public service. public and say you don't know what it is like to be a working person because you did not have to live paycheck-to-paycheck. you are seeing these contrast. when oz is talking about inflation and the strain that is putting on people, that is where you get to the question of his image. voters are concerned about inflation, we know that. but do they trust that he is

someone who understands them and will fight for them? that is one of the major questions. host: considering the commonwealth and mining energy, when it comes to fracking and other related issues. guest: oz has been very pro-fracking. that has been his answer to everything. he said let's put a liquid natural gas plant in philadelphia i get more money for school spirit he ask him about crime, he says let's put a liquid natural gas plant in philadelphia and there will be more jobs and better employment opportunities. he is all in on that. he brought in rick perry, who was president trump's energy secretary, to support him. he is very pro-fracking, even though he has made comments or bylined a newspaper column in the past that raised concerns. he says that was her advice colleague and not him, but his name was on the story. caller -- fetterman has also made negative comments about

fracking in the past, even as recently as 2018 said he was not for, and now says he is for it. in his view, environment or concerns, but also jobs and economic stimulus that the industry supplies. both of them have kind of reversed themselves a little bit. there are both in favor of it. fetterman might tell you little more about them are mental concerns, while oz is a drill, drill, drill. host: in may of 2022, there were 8.7 million registered voters within the commonwealth. 4 million democrats, three .4 million republicans, about one million plus other parties. how many of those have voted already leading up to the election? guest: we are getting up to the tens of thousands. i have not looked at the most recent numbers. there are tens of thousands with mail-in voting. the belief generally among

political operatives is that those voting early on by mail probably knew who they were voting for from the very start of the race, people who are very engaged in politics. they have a strong feeling whether it is democratic or republican. in pennsylvania, the mail-in voting tends to be much more heavily democratic. president trump sold a lot of doubt about mail-in voting for republicans. 2020 -- like in 2020, mail-in voting can be counted a little later because it takes longer for them to show up. we will probably see republican numbers first on election night. host: what about the 2020 process, how much has been corrected through this cycle? guest: there still a challenge and that they are not allowed to begin counting mail-in ballots until election day. that means there is a pile of mail-in ballots that are waiting to be sorted through.

that is what can lead to some of those delays. host: let's hear from emma. she is in north carolina. you are on with our guest. good morning, emma. go ahead. caller: yes, i am a first-time color. i would like to know if it is true or not that dr. oz is a citizen of turkey. and did he vote in turkey's 2018 election? i would also be interested in knowing if he was involved with michael flynn in his business in turkey. thank you. i will take my answer offline. guest: it is true that he is a dual citizen of turkey. his parents were born in turkey, emigrated to the united states. he says he maintains his dual citizenship so that he can very easily go and visit his mother over in turkey, who lives there, and i believe she is older and ill. that is his argument or his statement. he has said during the republican primaries, he said he

would give up his dual citizenship if he is elected to the senate. this came up significantly during the primaries as publican apartments -- republican opponents brought this up. fetterman has not pressed that case against him. i believe that oz did recently vote in a turkish election. that has may come up during the primary. it has not come up as much during the general election. he would be the first muslim elected to the u.s. senate ever. but again, he has not talked about that, fetterman it has not been an issue, but it would be a historic first, if he was a -- elected. host: our next caller is buzz. caller: i have not called in a

long time because i have noticed how slanted c-span has become. we have a -- i am amazed that anyone is considering voting for federman. we already have one invalid in the white house. even if he could talk, his views are so far left, it is amazing. i keep hearing these people say that oz isn't from pennsylvania. where is hillary clinton from? no one bitched about that. federman is making such a big deal about oz. oz did live in pennsylvania. he went to school in philly.

host: thanks. when it -- guest: when it comes to federman and his speech and his stroke, there is some concern that, that will be the lasting impression of him. most people do not get to see him on a regular basis. that debate may be the one time people see him taking questions . i have in him much more able to express himself than he was on that debate stage. people recovering from an illness will have some good days and some bad days. we have talked to some medical experts who say that that kind of pressurized setting can be particularly challenging for someone who has speech issues. we have not seen anything that

says federman has cognitive issues. we do not have the full picture from all of his doctors but there is the impression that that debate left and other people have not necessarily seen his rallies or interviews. as far as oz's, there it -- as far as oz's residency, there is a history of people moving to new states to run their. he is in the area much more affiliated with new york. pennsylvania has a very parochial feeling. a lot of people who live in pennsylvania were born there. there are not as many people who migrate in and out of pennsylvania. there is a chip on the shoulder in certain parts of pennsylvania. that might make it more

difficult to run as an outsider there. new york state is used to seeing people come from all over the world to live in manhattan and places around it. would -- oz wouldn't be the first person to move to run for public office. host: jonathan tamari joins us. we go to terry next on the -- next from winter spring on the republican line. caller: i watched the debate, and it was sad to watch. oz has got so much going for him. i don't understand how pennsylvania would even consider that this guy is someone you can vote for. he has never had a job. his family supported him.

i'm in florida. we are a republican state. we will continue to vote republican. pennsylvania, do not send this guide to the senate. please don't do it. host: are democratic leaders within the state expressing concerns after the debate? guest: they are worried. things were trending against federman for a few weeks. they are concerned, but they still think it is possible for him to win. they do not think that this is suddenly a lost cause. it truly seems like either candidate could win this race. the color brought up federman and why he has had -- caller brought up federman and why he has had this support. he established a brand as this

unusual looking politician. he was featured in rolling stone and a levi's ad as this rough-and-tumble democrat. he has a lot of brand for lack of a better word that has been established in pennsylvania for a long time now. that has carried him even during times when he is off the campaign trail. even though he was not able to make his points very well in that bait, there is a certain amount of sympathy. most people know someone who has been through a health crisis or has been through one themselves. that is a real part of real life, and to some people will be more understanding of that. others will look at it, like this caller did, and wonder how effective he will be, but there is a flipside to that debate. host: we go to mike in nevada,

democrats line. caller: good morning. i was wondering, has anybody ever watched dr. oz when he was on oprah? the oprah winfrey show -- as a surgeon, he was asked about losing weight. " if you lose weight, what will happen?" if you lose 5 pounds, a male will gain one inch on his peanut's -- penis. host: we will leave it there. where are the concentration points for fetterman and dr. oz? caller: they will focus -- guest: they will focus on the big blue cities. we expect president obama to come to those places.

they will be turning out philadelphia, turning out pittsburgh, and those suburbs that have become part of the major democratic coalition. the democrats have to do more because of that voter registration disadvantage. they need to get the deep red parts of the state. they also need to be in those suburbs, trying to reduce the democratic margin in those suburbs too. they have to stretch themselves more than a democrat has to in the final weekend. host: how are both campaigns reaching out for those who are not necessarily affiliated with the democratic or republican parties? guest: he is talking about not being extreme, trying to reach those people who do not feel strongly democratic or republican. fetterman, a lot of his message

has to do with the fighting for places that feel left behind. that is a nonpartisan appeal, and also criticizing oz as someone you cannot trust with your vote. you cannot trust that he is really a pennsylvanian. you cannot trust her that he will not change his position on things. the proactive " i'm one of you, i am going to fight for you and oz is not." host: where is oz on abortion? guest: they are pretty far apart. fetterman supports abortion rights. he has said multiple times he would not vote for any limits. he said he would vote for the women's health protection act, which would codify the law as it stood under roe v. wade. there would be limits on later term abortions. oz says he is against

abortion in the cases of -- abortion, except in the cases of rape, incest. he has not said yes or no. he said it should go to the states. he has not explicitly said if the bill is in front of him whether he would vote yes or no. host: let's hear from sheila in youngstown, ohio, democrats line. caller: i'm a big fan of fetterman. fetterman is earnest and honest. oz sounded like a slick con man in his responses. he never gave a straight answer. he basically said he wanted local politicians to be in the doctor's office deciding on women's health care. he wants to criminalize women's

health care and their doctors. that means you will go to jail, if you need an abortion. if you have a miscarriage, they you have a miscarriage. who will one to -- who will want to become a gynecologist? will i want to become a gynecologist, if i might go to jail for it? when he talked about the minimum wage, pennsylvania has the lowest minimum wage in the area. it is lower than west virginia. how did oz answer it? " i want it to be really high. let the free market decide!" host: ok, we will leave it there. guest: oz has skirted his exact position. he want to say he is against

raising it, but he says it should be up to private businesses to raise it. as far as abortion i believe he has said he does not believe in prosecuting doctors,but he is very much against most abortions except for those 3 exceptions. host: there was an ad that aired only once. it was against oz on the topic of abortion. we will show our viewers the ad [video clip] >>oz thinks that the decision belongs to doug must drown out. if you want to keep your right to -- host: is that ad accurate?

caller: it is accurate. he was being asked about the proposal by senator lindsey graham to ban abortion nationally. he did say he thinks it should be up to the states to decide. then he said it should be up to doctors, women, and local political leaders. local political leaders set the laws for each state. pennsylvania might have a different log than massachusetts, a different -- a different law than massachusetts, a different law than missouri. that is why they emphasize it in such a high-profile ad. host: -- democrats say that

moment might give them something. there is an argument for that. there is an argument on the others that most voters know where he stands on abortion. that one statement is not going to change anyone's opinion. if you care about abortion, you probably already know how you are voting. host: here is a viewer from missouri, marty. hi. caller: i hope the viewers understand that if fetterman get in, you will not be serving his term. his wife will. it is an unspoken thing. he will not be able to do his term because of health concerns and his wife will be doing it for him. the democrats have a history of doing that.

the husband either dies or has health issues and the wife gets in. host: how did you come to that? caller: well, i do a lot of reading, let's just say that. i read all kinds of websites, left, right, and between. host: where did you come to that conclusion from specifically? caller: i don't remember where. it popped up on different places i was reading. it has come up 0- -- and it makes sense. guest: i have not heard any reporting to that effect. there is always speculation about candidates. there have been senators who have had strokes who have recovered and served out there terms. if fetterman for some reason

had to resign, i believe the governor of pennsylvania would appoint a replacement. his wife is a major presence on the campaign trail, but to say that there is a plot to replace him, i do not think we have any facts that back that up right now. host: we will hear from judith now. caller: first thing i want to do is apologize for that gentle man who called. c-span has been known for years and years to be fair. it is fair to democrats, republicans, and independents. i want to apologize to you guys because you do a great job letting the public express themselves. my call is about the gentleman and the female who said that fetterman can do the job. if president donald trump was in

therefore 4 years -- do the right thing for the country and the constitution. host: that is judith in indiana. one of the aspects is looking at the whole job of the senator. guest: you give speeches, but senators in a state as large as pennsylvania, they may hold 3, 4, 5 events and a single day. it is a vast state. if you have ever driven across it, you know that. there is a lot of work, a lot of communicating with constituents, interest groups, other senators, and making the case for the party you support. there are a lot of questions about how effective -- of whether fetterman can keep up that schedule. his schedule has increased as

the campaign has gone on, that it is not as active as you would have expected before his stroke. he is still just 4 or 5 months into his recovery. we are waiting to see where the endpoint is. host: mary is in pittsburgh, good morning. caller: good morning. this is my first time calling c-span. i am thinking about how much of this race and dr. oz's campaign is built on this foundation of misinformation. i think we forget that his entire career has been built around selling people misinformation. he is not a real doctor. he was selling people lies when he was working on oprah's show. people in pennsylvania have felt so forgotten by people in d.c.. i really urge voters in

pennsylvania to look at nonpartisan factual information when building their opinion about how they will -- who they will vote for next week. host: you said he was not a real doctor. how have you come to that conclusion? caller: he is so harmful. guest: marion pittsburgh -- host: mary in pittsburgh, thank you for the call. guest: that is a belief that will work against the offense -- he cannot be trusted. history means you cannot believe what he says. he has a history on television of selling questionable products, of questionable advice that a lot of doctors had problems with that was not accurate. in some cases, he may have had some of his own financial ties to the information he was giving out. that is accurate. before he had a to be career, he was quite renowned -- tv career,

he was quite renowned in new york city. he patented a number of devices and medical procedures, so he was very renowned as a doctor, but there are a lot of people in the profession eho have a problem -- who have a problem with what he did after he had his television show. host: our next caller is from kentucky. caller: i am a registered republican, but i am not voting republican. we had another carpetbagger come in our state. he look shiny, new,. he -- looked shiny, new, he made a lot of promises. he promised a big aluminum deal

in eastern kentucky. there was no way for people to file claims for unemployment. he was just a carpetbagger coming in. stay with your local politicians who you know. kentucky has the pumping days with the -- popping jays with the curly hair who have been voted in over and over again. host: you said this could be what we see play out -- you said what we see play out in the coming week could -- guest: pennsylvania is one of the main states donald trump tried to overthrow the results in, in 2020. he targeted the philadelphia vote. he wanted to have the results thrown out in congress. it was one of 2 states that was

formally challenged on january 6. pennsylvania will again be one of the most pivotal states in the 2024 presidential election. whoever the 2 candidates are -- there are two factors -- certifying the results. that can come down to the governor. wherever the governor is picks the secretary of state. we saw in 2020 a democratic secretary of state resisted pressure from trump to stop counting votes. that is the governor'd sids -- governor's side. in 2020 republican pat toomey, although he supported trump for

president, opposed throwing out pennsylvania's electoral votes. you had bipartisan opposition to it. oz will replace him or fetterman will replace him. if there is another attempt to decertify results, how will the pennsylvania senators vote? * has -- fetterman has made clear that he would not vote to throw out the votes. o has raiised questions about the 2020 vote during his campaign. one of them could very well have a say if there is a repeat of 2020 in 2024. host: we are starting a long look at states, beginning with

pennsylvania. john thain tamari, thank you for your time -- jonathan tamari, thank you for your time. chstopher fetterman, we will -- we will speak to christopher borick of mullen berg college next on washington vernal. -- we will speak to christopher borick of mullen berg college next on washington journal. ♪ >> if you are enjoying book tv, then sign up for our newsletter using the qr code on the screen to receive other discussions, book festivals -- author discussions, book festivals and more. television for serious readers. ♪ >> middle and high school

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c-span radio, " and listen to washington journal every morning. catch washington today for a fast-paced report. listen to c-span anytime. just tell your smart speaker, " play c-span radio." >> washington journal continues. host: we continue our look at pennsylvania, the battleground state with chris borick. he is director of the institute of public opinion. mr. borick, thank you for your time today. talk a little about the institute, your job in poland. -- in polling. guest: meulenberg is a college on the eastern side of pennsylvania.

we do a lot of public opinion polling. we do some national surveying on issues like the environment. host: when you do a poll, can you tell us about your process? who you talk to, how many people you talk to? caller: -- guest: the methods we use in polling pennsylvanians, right now our standard methodology is still telephone, primarily cell phone in terms of contact points for individuals. our sampling is based off of voter files as airframe. we use -- as ou framer -- as our frame. we use voter file -- are sample sizes are usually around 400 to 500 based on our capabilities.

there are various races throughout the state. this fall we are looking statewide with polling, including one we will be releasing this week. lehigh valley is one of them more focused on swing districts in the state right now. host: what is important for voters to know about pennsylvania as they approach the midterm election? guest: i was listening in on jonathan. it is a purple state in so many metrics. a lot of people look back on our presidential performance since the 80's up until 2016, it has been won by democrats. if you look down ballot, senatorial races, gubernatorial races, which we have talked about, statehouse races, a

really competitive state, which makes it from a polling perspective always challenging to look at because in any particular race, it could be close. we saw that in 2016. we saw that again in 2020./ there will be some races that will be very close. host:: if you want to ask questions about the midterm elections in pennsylvania. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. if you are a resident of pennsylvania, call us at (202) 748-8002. you talked about that governor's race. at the time people said they would go for schapiro over doug must rihanna -- doug mastriano.

guest: that was september. a lot of poles came out since then. it looks like -- a lot of polls came out since then. it looks like it has stayed where we last saw it. this race is one where in many ways the democrats have selected a candidate i think is there ableist -- their ablest candidate in the state. he is a very managed candidate. you knows how to raise funds and has set himself up in this race in a cycle that is good for republicans as the best of the democrats could have offered. doug mastriano won a contested

republican primary. while it was an impressive win in the primary, he may not be the best candidate even in a great cycle for republicans to match a statewide general election audience. i think he struggled. he struggled in fundraising to get his message out. he has not been on the air while josh schapiro has been on the air almost since the beginning of the general election, even primary in some ways really building an image that mastriano is too extreme for pennsylvania. host: in that september poll when it comes to the senate race, at the time you compiled it, it was the democrat john fetterman.

that has changed. you heard our previous guest talk. why do you think of this is a close race? guest: there is this disparity there, which leads us to the belief that there is a significant portion of split ticket voters in the state, and that seems to be the rule, if you look at the polling, not only ours but other polls. candidate quality obviously matters. john fetterman is this unique brand of pennsylvania politics from his image, his appearance, and the way he positions himself in contemporary democratic politics as a progressive, but with a twist. he has attracted a lot of individuals to his campaign. he has an interesting brand. dr. oz rose to fame with

oprah. he has his own unique brand. what limits his chances is his relationship to the state. he has spent his life elsewhere. that is a big hurdle for him to get over. he has been successful in many ways in keeping this race tight and tightening it more than other polls have shown this month i attacking -- by attacking fetterman and his brand, making the case that fetterman is weak on crime in an area where the issue is salient and making fetterman to be less attractive to older, less

moderate -- more moderate voters. that has closed the race from september into october. the debate performance a week ago raised more questions about the lieutenant governor's ability to hold office as he recovers from a stroke he had in may. i think this race is by almost every measure we can see very competitive and different than the governor's race i just talked about. host: we hear from chris in pennsylvania. you are on with our guest. go ahead. caller: i will be short and sweet. how come things were better under president trump? taxes were lower, food was lower, gas was lower, and now we have a new president and all that stuff is skyhigh.

you go to the grocery store, you cannot get out of there for less than $100. you have to spend at least $50 or $60 to put gas in your car. why can't anybody see that? host: mr. borick, you talk about categories of interest for those you polled, the economy was top of the list, 22% showing that. guest: it is an and norma's issue -- enormous issue. they say " maybe things were better economically." there is evidence of that. republicans, if you look at their messaging in pennsylvania and beyond, they are increasingly focused on that as an issue. when we break it out and we look

at people who say that is their number one issue, republicans overwhelmingly are in front and it set them up in many ways, given a positive historic cycle and an issue like this to make gains this year. chris's perspective is one that republicans are counting on voters aligning with. host: inflation, 12% of those responding, immigration 4%, abortion and reproductive rights, 20%. is that a new future because of the roe decision? guest: it is relatively new. there is a segment of voters in pennsylvania and beyond that have reproductive rights, abortion as their number one issue. it is important to a segment. in this cycle that changed

post- dobbs. 3% -- 3% of pennsylvanians said it was their top issue in 2018. there is no guesswork why that is the case, what happened in june with the supreme court elevated that issue significantly. it might not change the overall outcomes we see in 2020 but it, it -- but it has given the democrats a boost. host: hanover, pennsylvania, sharon, hello. caller: thank you. i am a senior citizen.

my friends and i are blue dots in a red sea, central pa. the last caller, i would say, except for strategic oil reserves, our presidents do not control the oil markets, even the food markets. it is a complex global system. furthermore, in the debate dr. oz had a huge list of things he./ -- he kept saying, " i will do this and that." we believe that if he is elected, he will cave to the intense, republican, right-wing pressure to get into lockstep. lastly, -- excuse me, i'm sorry. that's all.

as far as mastriano, anyone with functional hearing and site can see that he is site-- sight can see that he is psychologically unfit to serve public office. host: that is sharon from pennsylvania. she used the term " blue. in a red sea -- blue dot in a red sea." guest: sharon is right. where she lives in hanover -- i think she is mentioning one in south-central pa, which is overwhelmingly a conservative area of the state. large republican advantage in registered voters, which is part of the picture of pennsylvania. i heard jonathan talking about

the demographics and landscape. it is a fairly big state and very diverse in terms of its regions, in terms of partisanship with the southeast being largely democratic -- allegheny county, pittsburgh being largely democratic, pockets in urban areas like the lehigh valley, harrisburg, but you have a lot of rural areas, townships across the state. one of the states in the nation with the largest rural areas. that makes it hard for the pockets sharon described where it is overwhelmingly red. host: " at the time you took this it was a 43% approval rating. how much is president biden a part of this cycle? guest: he is very much a part of

this cycle. those numbers have been consistent with his national numbers in the low to mid 40's. we call them midterms for a reason. it is mid-president terms. often we think about those midterms as a referendum on the president's party. there is a reason historically that the president's party has suffered because of a bunch of factors in american politics, in our dna, if you will where we move away from what we did in the last election. the president's approval ratings add to the challenge for republicans. when they have weaker approval ratings, the party tends to lose even more. i think those conditions are present in this cycle. it is making a challenge for

democrats here in pennsylvania and nationally. host: here is jeanette in pittsburgh. caller: thank you. first-time caller. my question is what is the percentage of the black vote that will be counted or not for the state of pennsylvania? they talk about the economy. what is the percentage from trump's administration and biden's administration on how the economy is good or bad? for me it is better now than it was when trump was in office. host: that is jeanette. guest: it is a great question from jeanette about the black vote in the state. it depends on the election

cycle, but it is somewhere between the high single digits --10%, 11%, 12% depending on the race and the cycle. it is a crucial electorate of a racial ethnic group. it is by far the most democratic in pennsylvania and nationally. in many races it will be 90% plus for democrats. black voters are throughout pennsylvania, but heavy concentrations in philadelphia, pittsburgh in particular. often, the share of the vote is important but the turnout among black voters in philadelphia is a driver for democratic candidates statewide. i think that is why you see a lot of attention being paid

there -- president obama in town, surrogates focusing on philadelphia to make sure emma craddick turnout in this cycle, which often includes a significant portion of black voters, is higher and competitive in the state to make sure that once you get the overall picture in the state, that portion is added in. host: you asked people in september what the odds are of them voting in the election. 16% said very likely to vote. you see those kinds of turnout numbers in a midterm election cycle? guest: the modeling in our polls, we look at past voting behaviors, people who have voted a lot, voted in other midterm elections. and amongst that group, of

course, we go and ask them specifically what they think. by comparison metrics, there are signs that turnout in this cycle will be pretty high. there is voting going on already in the state and some other measures in terms of voter enthusiasm gives us the suggestion that this will be a higher end midterm election. we saw in 2018 that was very much the case and pennsylvania. where turnout surpassed some past presidential elections. 20 --turnout will be high. host: christopher borick joins us for this conversation. from wellsville, terry, you're on with our guest.

go ahead. caller: good morning, america. i have a problem here. everyone is talking about how good the economy was when joe biden took over. the economy wasn't so bad, but there was also millions of millions of people that were laid off. there were thousands upon thousands, if not millions, waiting in food lines for food. how was it so good for people, america? that is my question. host: that is terry in wellsville. guest: we are bringing up the economic views of americans and how they feel about the economy. certainly, there are measures of economic performance from gdp, to inflation that give a mixed bag, if you will about where we are as a country, where we are in pennsylvania on these issues.

it comes down to perception of where you are, which things you are elevating, and which things are most salient to you. this is where public opinion polling comes in. we look at how people are viewing the economy. there are significant concerns. americans are not pleased with the state of the economy. those inflationary pressures have really taken a toll on public sentiment. even with some pretty low unemployment levels nationally. as economics measures look at the wage increases in relation to the increases and prices, that gap is weighing on a lot of voters as we head towards election day. host: the new york times say " it is fighting over the white working class and pennsylvania that is taking up a lot of the

exercises these days for both candidates. guest: it is a very large segment of the pennsylvania electorate, depending on how you count it. it has been a challenge for democrats. it is a group they have done well in. republicans made incredible inroads and dominated this important segment of the electorate. democrats have tried to be more attentive to that with some degree of success. in 2020, while joe biden did not win that group by any means, he performed better than hillary clinton in a state that was ultimately decided by 1000 votes. that was crucial to the president at that time candidate biden. in this cycle you see great attention. someone like john borick who has built -- john fetterman who has

built his campaign on working-class issues, can he break in and do better among that cohort than other democrats? if so, could that propel him to victory? it might push him away from the new base in some ways of democratic power in pennsylvania, educated, suburban folks in southeast and sylvania. -- southeast pennsylvania. host: from hawaii, this is diane, independent line. caller: can you give me a concise breakdown of corporate sponsorships of each candidate? could you also elaborate for me

on the disenfranchisement of voters? guest: yeah. they voter, -- yeah, they are 2 big questions we can look at. investment by corporations, interest groups, others in this race have been really significant. it is a costly race. it is going to set records. in pennsylvania, fetterman and oz have incredible amounts of money coming from outside groups. pennsylvania is an expensive media market. the philadelphia market by itself is one of the most expensive in the state. the candidates have been reaching out.

if you look at some comparative ways of looking, fetterman has done better at raising small amounts from around the state. relative, if you look at all of his contributions, he does pretty well among individual contributors at smaller levels. dr. oz has not done as well among smaller amount donors and has relied more on more outside groups and spending overall large contributions. in the gubernatorial race, josh shapiro has fund raised extremely well, including from corporations and businesses in the state. senator mastriano has not.

he has gotten small donations, but his coffers are not large overall. in terms of felony disenfranchisement in pennsylvania, it is an issue nationally. in pennsylvania, individuals who are convicted felons can vote after released, not when they are in jail but it has certainly been an issue here. host: do we know -- will we see results on election night in pennsylvania, do you think? guest: it depends on how close the race is. pennsylvania adopted mail-in balloting a few years ago. local governments learned that prepared election -- that

election officers were not all that prepared. there is a rule that does not allow pre-canvassing, meaning counting the ballots before election day. we might see a similar scenario. the counties have gotten better. the number of votes in this cycle will not be at the same level they were in 2020, giving the counties more capability to catch up. if the races are fairly wide in terms of margins, they will probably call it on election night. we have a chance that we will not have resolution o election nightn. host: this is ann. caller: i do not believe one man can serve 2 masters and dr.

oz being a dual citizen of turkey concerns me. turkey may have already purchased defense systems from russia. will erdogan pressure oz to give up our most sensitive information? it would be for any country. guest: it is an issue that has not been prominent in this election with dr. oz's citizenship in turkey. he is an american citizen, perfectly eligible for running for office. we have not seen that issue being highlighted in ads.

there has never been this challenge of his loyalty to the united states or relationship to turkey. i have not seen it play a prominent role, which may be an interesting aspect of this race. host: here is kathleen, massachusetts, and chestnut hill, independent line. caller: the woman before me stole my thunder. i can't believe they have not made a huge issue that he goes over to turkey and votes! i don't have a problem if he has dual citizenship here in the u.k., but over there in turkey -- there is just a couple other silly things he has done. people have not taken him seriously. his father was a physician.

he is an entertainer! he likes the spotlight! he was on jimmy kim about 8 years ago. he tells about his father being a physician and one time sticking a needle in his sister's head into some of the silly things he did on his show, coming out with a wagon with 100 pounds of fat. so commercial. that woman stole my thunder! the democrats come to a fight with a butter knife. they just don't know how to fight! i'm done. host: that is kathleen. to that point, have these races, would you describe them as nasty? guest: they have been pretty hard, pretty negative.

the amount of ads are extensive and most of them negative. dr. oz is trying to make fetter man to be extreme and a fraud, he is not working-class, he came from a wealthy family. and of course fetterman hitting oz that he is not from pennsylvania. he is an elite hollywood dr. dropping in. the attacks from outside groups try to raise this question of turkish citizenship and his relationship to turkey. i think the last caller is fair. would the politics be same if it was the democratic candidate? i don't have an answer for that. it has been a pretty lighting campaign -- biting campaign.

host: david is from pittsburgh. hello. caller: first time caller. i think that turkish issue, i have seen that issue raised on social media. it is not directly in the political ads. following up on sharon from hanover previously, that, lo -- blue dot in a red sea, i think reducing some of the margins in those areas is another possibility, particularly for fetterman. there is this perception that it is only pittsburgh and philadelphia, but even where john is from, york county, the city of york is not a red area. lancaster,, scranton of course -- if margins are not so wide in

those areas, that is another positive for the fetterman campaign. there was talk that fetterman might bring down shapiro. you might see the opposite. there is a real distaste mastriano. you could see shapiro help carry fetterman. host: thank you, david. guest: great analysis. in pennsylvania, those midsized cities often get overlooked. the eries, the yorks, scranton -- my hometown! the turnout there, there is still democratic enclaves in regions that have become increasingly republican. in those places we see some republican gains. people get tired of me saying

that in a state like pennsylvania the margins matter. all these little things add up when it is that close. we are going to see those situations moving forward. host: we had talked with her previous guest about president biden expecting to visit. he visited last week. we will see president trump's visit this guest: i think either former president trump or president biden's ability statewide to really change the dynamic is probably fairly limited, both with current polling data with president biden and president trump's numbers in the state. they both have high disapproval ratings. both can do some work in the area of getting out voters,

targeting voters in regions where there is still an affinity for them, so they can play a role. i think fundraising is one area where we have seen president biden help federman in a very costly race. they can do some things to help boost the basics, if you will, for both parties. but their reach broadly is pretty limited. host: we are about a week away or so. what are you watching for data-wise, professor, and the next week or so? guest: i think we are still going to see a bunch of polling come out on the debates in the senate race. we will see where that is. the senate race was close before and i imagine we will see a pretty competitive race moving forward. and we will talk about the schapiro fetterman and the mastriano "washington journal" continues. oz --/cause.

we sought on state ballots where statewide, people like josh schapiro were winning, while other republicans were winning -- other republicans were winning other parts of the state. have got a feeling that is going to be a pretty significant part of the broader picture in 2022 in pennsylvania. host: chris borick is the professor joining us today. thank you for your analysis today. that is it for our program today. another edition of "washington journal" comes your way tomorrow at 7:00 paired right now, we will take you to the arguments being presented at the spring course -- supreme court taking a look at affirmative action

admissions policies.