is close and key states. i do wonder if every person in the media has understood that 30% as meaning these polls if you have three elections, they will be wrong one time. if your sample size is 18 elections, you have a pretty good chance that the polls will miss enough that the losing presidential candidate could end up winning. i wonder how the tone of the campaign would have been different and what the people uld have thought what happened. >> elliott morris with his book "strength in numbers." you can listen to q&a and all of our podcasts on the free c-span now app. >> there are a lot of places to get political information. but only at c-span do you get it straight from the source. no matter where you are from or

where you stand on the issues, c-span is america's network. unfiltered, unbiased, word for word. if it happens here or here or here or anywhere that matters, america is watching on c-span. powered by cable. >> battleground series now with a focus on the grand canyon states. a professor at the university of arizona. professor clark, first on arizona status as a battleground state. arizona's status as a battleground state, went to that happen? was there a particular election that signaled arizona had arrived as a swing state? >> i think 2020 is when we had national attention on arizona as a swing state but it did not happen out of nowhere. this was an outcome of a longer progression. the proportionate democrats increasing. an even greater change in the

republicans. we have seen them win by smaller and smaller margins over time. in 2020, when arizona voted for biden and r. kelly for senate for the two democratic candidates, we started to realize that arizona had become a swing state. host: help me understand some of these numbers. these are registered voters in arizona, the number from the secretary of state's office. republicans have a distinct advantage, more than 1.4 million rub -- register republicans to under 1.3 free democrats and another 1.4 million other or not registered. who is in that other category? guest: when you look at the registration numbers, republicans have always had a numerical advantage in arizona. it's about 38% republican, 35%

independent, somewhere like that. republicans at the top, democrats and independents are vying for second place. it is not necessarily people who don't prefer a party, they are just registering as an independent. that could be because they don't prefer either party, that is pretty unusual. the vast majority of independents do have a preference and tend to support one party, that they may not necessarily want to identify with the image of the party, they may not fully support the entire platform. that is a large chunk of arizonans who are more serious in the campaign. there are a lot of independents out there and there is a big appeal toward moderates in arizona. particularly among democratic candidates, it has been a successful strategy, think of mark kelly and kyrsten sinema, to appeal to the middle-of-the-road. host: in terms of demographic

trends in the states, what should our viewers know about the grand canyon states? guest: arizona is rapidly growing, particularly phoenix. it is one of the largest most rapidly growing cities in the past decade, as well as small towns in the phoenix metro area have been booming. arizona is also radly urbanizing which means we are seeing a big population decline in our world, typically republican counties and the biggest increases in maricopa county which houses phoenix as well as tucson. we are seeing rural areas and urban areas, a lot of immigration to arizona internationally and in the united states, domestic migration. and a growing portion of the electorate identifies as hispanic or latino. all these things are helping

arizona switch from a reliably red state to purple. host: battleground arizona is our topic today in the battleground series, it is a weeklong series and we will see it tomorrow as well. i want to focus on arizona. democrats call in at (202) 748-8000, republicans at (202) 748-8001, independence -- independents at (202) 748-8002 and one for those in arizona, we want to hear from you, (202) 748-8003. samara klar from the university of arizona is our guests. as folks call in, for our viewers, the viewers of election results when they start coming in next tuesday, what should they know about the state of arizona? where will the results come in? how quickly and how do you watch

on election night? guest: i prepare myself at least a couple days before official results because our races are so close. both the gubernatorial race in the senate, both races are not often outside of the margin of error in the polls so it could be a couple of days before we know who wins. arizona relies heavily on mail-in voting so in previous elections 90% of arizona voters vote by mail. -- some of the earlier counties will favor democrats more heavily and people are out of the polls until the last wee hours, those will tilt more toward the republicans as we have seen in previous elections. host: how has the accounting process changed since 2020? there is so much focus on arizona in election night in

election night and the days after. guest: absolutely. 2020 led to a lot of election denial in arizona. we had a lot of time and money reviewing election results and the evidence has shown that the election outcome in arizona was legitimate. there was no fraud or reason to doubt it. so i think in 2022 there will be added attention on the election. election officials have done all they can to show voters every vote counts, they need to vote because their vote will be counted. host: what time do the polls close in arizona? guest: that is a great question. everybody mail-in voting so 7, 9? i need to check. it is the last week to mail-in voting choose a relevant question in arizona. it will be largely potentially more republican voters that are

not as interested in mail-in voting, but both parties in arizona are supportive of vote by mail and have been doing it. host: to las vegas, nevada, the line for republicans, this is ray. that morning, you are on with samara klar. (202) 748-8002 -- caller: good morning. i have a question about arizona. with that one lady -- do you think this is damaging to the democrat party? guest: that is a question that has been asked so much in arizona as democrats are looking back over the campaign. where hobbs has done well and where she is not. one of the biggest talking points here is that the democratic gubernatorial candidate refused to debate the

republican candidate. katie hobbs has argued that kari lake is peddling misinformation, she outright lies about election integrity and hobbs did not want to dignify those statements with a formal debate. the problem for hobbs is that it may have affected her name recognition a little bit. she has not been quite as out there as kari lake so when people are watching the news and hearing the news, we are not hearing as much about her. it is possible doing something like a debate, getting out there would have raised her profile a little bit. but only time will tell. this is the kind of thing we all look back on our election day and decide what the missteps were on either side of the aisle. but it is something that has been really troubling i think to democrats and all those in arizona, they have been relying on campaigns, ads, all the traditional ways we are learning about our candidates. but the fact that she did not

debate is a sticking point in arizona and across democratic candidates. host: thank you, enough time to get the whole opening and closing times, polls open at 6:00 a.m. in arizona and close at 6:00 p.m. -- 7:00 p.m. central time. on the east coast, they will close in arizona at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. harry in arizona, good morning. are you with us this morning? caller: yes. host: what is your question or comment? caller: who is counting, they decided to hand count the ballots, the two republican county supervisors, how do you think that reflects on the rest of arizona? guest: right, there are some

small counties that have decided to do a headcount of the ballots. as i said, it is a ctiary measure. each county is trying to fire out how they can assure their voters that their vote will count, there are no fraud issues in the election. hand coding -- accounting raises its own issues, essential user error, there is no sure fire way to do it. but most of arizona will not be hand counting ballots so that is not the method we will see across the state. some counties are taking it across the -- taking it upon themselves to have an alternate method to ensure that the election is free of fraud. host: the issue of roe v. wade is an issue the democrats have focused on quite a bit in this election. individual state laws now. the law of the land on that issue. what is the law on abortion in arizona and how have you seen it impact this election cycle?

guest: the abortion laws in arizona have been dramatic and fluid. when it was first overturned, arizona resumed a 15 week ban on abortions prior to roe v. wade. there was a decision by arizona state officials to return it to a pre-territorial law, before arizona joined the union, before women could vote for example, which banned abortion at six weeks. so almost a complete ban on abortion. that was challenged and is temporarily paused. arizonans are not sure when and if the six week ban will be resumed. at this point there is a 15 week ban. a lot of confusion and concern. as you mentioned, democrats have been discussing abortion a lot more than republicans have. the vast majority of democrats do not support the spam and a small majority of republicans

also oppose the ban. so it is not a particularly popular decision among democrats or republicans. the question is whether it is going to be important enough to motivate people to vote. that is important, individual response. republicans, abortion may be less important. what we do know the ban is not well supported here in arizona. we will talk about the been much more with hobbs. kari lake understands it is not a winning issue among her base so she does not mention it much. host: republicans certainly focusing on the issue of the border and border security. what is the issue of the border and that issue in the campaign cycle? guest: arizona is a key border state, it always comes up in election cycles. in between it. the precedent for 2022 is that the border has taken a backseat

to issues like the economy and inflation which have taken a grip on arizona voters this year. but the border has always been important, particularly as both parties try to show they are tough on the border, their concern for immigration issues but they also have to appeal to a population that in many ways is more supportive of immigration then we see nationally. polling shows that arizona republicans are more supportive of a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants than what we see naturally. arizona does rely on immigration and flowing through the border for our economy and culture. most republicans in arizona believe that immigration strengthens the culture of arizona, they support citizenship, but there is a concern that we do not want to elect -- let's crime a thorough -- we do not want to let crime

flow to the border. host: we are focusing on the grand canyon state of arizona in our battleground series. next in california, the line for republicans, good morning. caller: i have a question. i have noticed the democrats are using social security and medicare quite a bit and with this information, they are always saying the republicans want to end social security and medicare. that is a falsehood. the washington post pointed out that that is a pinocchio moment. he wants to look into different proposals, but not end it. could you remark on this? guest: sure. issues of social security and medicare are going to be especially salient in states

like arizona where we have a larger older population. a lot of americans like to retire to arizona for the weather and the lifestyle. so it is an issue that resonates. last couple of years, republicans are starting to lose some of their stronghold over older voters. in 2020, voters over 65 voted for the democratic party at the highest rate that we have seen in any presidential election. they are trying to appeal to older voters. this sort of represents a lot of what is frustrating voters about both parties in the election. they make dramatic sweeping statements that don't necessarily align with what most voters believe. it comes down to a tight race and a close election were both candidates and both parties are trying to appeal to voters in whatever way they can. the way they are informed on these issues and keeping themselves informed on what is and is not accurate, that is

what everyone should be doing. host: in durango, colorado, you are on with samara klar. caller: i'm trying to find out what the tax payers of arizona pay for -- to recount all of the ballots. they found out that even still biting not more ballots counts than the recounts that happened three other times. host: remind us of cyber interest. guest: yes, this is an online drama in arizona where the republicans were challenging the results, estate republicans in arizona led an effort to look into the results and they found that republicans actually lost arizona by more than they had

initially thought. so if there had been any miscount it was actually in the republicans favor. the true result was that democrats had even more votes. you're hinting at the fact that arizona taxpayers were stuck paying for this incredibly expensive audit at a time -- and the time it took in the state legislature. this is on the minds of a lot of voters. kari lake continues to discuss the misinformation and election integrity, she will remind people about this that will not -- was not popular with a lot of voters in arizona. host: timothy, the line for republicans, good morning. caller: i'm sorry. i would like to piggyback off of that last caller, what they were talking about. i don't live in arizona. and i understand this -- there's probably a lot of frustration there. my question is if i am an arizona voter and i've got

someone running to lead my state who swears that the election was faked or fraud or whatever but yet the proof is that none of that is true, i think as an arizonan i would be a little offended at this person suggesting that my vote was erroneous in some form or fashion. i think i would be a little uptight about voting for someone as an election to nayar, especially in a state that absolutely -- election denier, especially in a state that absolutely voted for joe biden. could you help me? thanks. guest: sure. there is a lot of messaging around the big lie is people call it, it is not a great strategic vote -- move and there is evidence support and what you're saying. the fundamentals of the arizona

election right now suggest the republicans should be doing well. we have a plurality of voters in arizona who are republican, some of the highest inflation rates in the country in arizona, phoenix reported the highest inflation of any state in the past 20 years out of the country, and we have low approval for joe biden in the state. in these factors you would think the republican candidates would be walking away with it. instead we are seeing carrie and -- we are seeing them and, they are trailing on kelly for most polls and the caller is correct. republicans in arizona appear to be underperforming how they should be given the state of the arizona electorate right now. one important factor is that people are somewhat sick of hearing about lection integrity issues when we spent so much of our taxpayer money proving that everything was fine. host: a republican prospect in

arizona, you probably know who the columnist is at the arizona republic, has column in today's wall street journal, trump as a shadow over arizona's gop is the headline. i want your reaction. in 2018 while mr. trump was president, democrats took both of the u.s. seats. last time both of the state's u.s. senators were democrats was 1953. the gop margin in the state legislature was formidable, tracking to a single member of each chamber. republicans no longer win statewide elections in arizona by turning up the base, pulling them and picking up a small number of independence. guest: that is right. the words right out of my mouth. we are seeing republicans winning in arizona by smaller and smaller margins and the loss

of their vote margins does not match the decrease in actual republican voters. arizona is where is--losing republican votes a lot faster than republican voters. republicans are very split in arizona when it comes to donald trump. he is not overwhelmingly popular in arizona. he did not win arizona in 2020. by having him back candidates for the republican ticket in arizona is a gamble for the republican party. host: a republican in arizona, mike in cave creek. good morning. caller: yes. should i go ahead? guest: -- host: yes sir. caller: ok. i notice when they were discussing the audit and the vote count etc., i have watched the actual audit and it looked to me like -- the security --

host: we are going to work on your audio so stay on the line because you were going in and out a little bit there. as we tried to do that, david in flowery branch, georgia, republican. good morning. caller: yes, i have it question about the strategic oil reserve. donald trump had it for at 50% a gallon when he left office. -- at $.50 a gallon when he left office. but joe biden said we will defend taiwan and china tax, why are we releasing the strategic oil reserve? we are down to 25%. he is saying he is going to fill it back up at $.74 a gallon, which is lost is money. he spends money like he is

printing it. how do the democrats not understand what he is doing, trying to lower this before the election? thank you. host: mark, with energy issues in arizona. guest: yes, gas prices in arizona. we still have some of the highest rates of increase in the country in arizona. my friend in california it was shocked at how cheap it was, but it was four times more expensive than arizonans are used to. there were some of the highest increases in cost of living, gas, electricity cannot real estate, childcare. and the caller is mentioning that these are important things to voters. want to know what the party is going to do to get the cost of living back in control to make sure that inflation in arizona stays stable and gas prices come down. want to make sure this is not an

electoral ploy to make one party look good before the election. this is a big issue a lot of people are talking about. concern for inflation seems to be an advantage for the republican party. voters tend to be somewhat split on whether or not republicans will be better than democrats but we see that split even amongst typically democratic blocks such as latino voters. we start watching the gas prices go up and we are wondering how much longer we should wait before things return to what we feel is normal. host: in arizona again, that was mike going in and out. i think we have fixed it. go ahead. caller: ok. basically what i watched the detailed audit reports here. they were discussing use of the password and whether or not any of the equipment had been

connected to the internet. and they did find that the servers were connected to the internet. and also that maricopa county used one password for the entire system. so nobody could be held accountable for any changes. anybody could have made any changes using one password. that is the integrity of the count. also they were not availed the legal voting list to compare the election results. in the audit. so they were not able to substantiate whether they were legal voters voting in that last election. host: samara klar, do you want to take those concerns? guest: absolutely, this is a big

we have discussed many times. you can either trust the republican but inquiry or not. -- lead inquiry or not. people are wondering whether or not they can trust the results. but given how thorough the audit was and how many republicans particularly were involved in it , who if anything probably would have benefited from finding some sort of evidence, i think we can rest assured that election integrity in arizona is safe and every vote will count. i encourage you to vote no matter your party. host: going back to 2018, i believe that was the year kyrsten sinema one in arizona and the republican won governor. how likely do you think it is that this time around that could happen again, either that a republican would win one office and the democrat would win the

other? guest: the polling is making it seem that is the most likely outcome. if we can make predictions, and i hesitate to make predictions when we do not see the outcome or the margin of error. but kelly has been maintaining a consistent lead. mostly substantial. on -- i have yet to seen any polls showing masters in the lead. as it gets closer and closer, we look to the governor race we see a bit of an opposite scenario. hobbes was in the lead for much of the early campaign but lake has been trending upward. she is now largely not outside the margin of error. a couple of outlier polls have her in the lead. but we have two or three percentage point advantage.

want to look at the trends in the most recent polls. lake might be a little more comfortable than hobbes. kelly more comfortable the masters. that would suggest we have people voting republican for governor and democrat for senate. but don't put your money on what i'm saying because we don't know what is happening in arizona. everything is so close in these races. host: we focus so much on these statewide races, are there house races we should focus on? guest: absolutely, as quoted by the wall street journal today, state legislatures have been losing republican seats every year. used to be an overwhelmingly republican chamber and now we are seeing a republican in the lead, two seats above the democrat. especially when it comes to things like school funding in arizona, abortion rights of course, if there's one thing

americans have been learning it is that politics make a crucial difference in our lives. we are seeing the state policies of arizona moving overwhelmingly republican to about 50-50. it will be interesting to see if the trend continues or republicans will be able to take back seats they lost in recent years. host: we will wrap up with the house of representatives. guest: i am so sorry. absolutely, we have congressional seats up for grabs in arizona as well as this will make a huge difference. at the federal level, everything is so close. every state right now, especially in swing states, we are not sure what is going to happen. there was redistricting in arizona making some districts more competitive than they were the past. that is why some of these races are so much less predictable than they used to be. host: just a couple of minutes left in our program this morning

at a couple more calls, this is sam in north carolina, independent. you are on with samara klar. guest: thank you for take -- caller: thank you for taking my call. i wanted to say i'm in north carolina so i can vote in arizona. but i think the abortion issue is really killing -- telling of what republican led legislature on the national level will do as they please. because most people wanted to keep roe v. wade. judge roberts even offered a solution that was not acceptable to the five justices. we sent it back to the states,

putting people in turmoil and near death. i'm 74, soon to be 75. it does not matter to me. i had childbearing age. but if i could help somebody else i would like to. host: back to the abortion issue. guest: it is a very puzzling issue from a public opinion perspective, as the caller was suggesting, most americans do not want this overturned or support abortion bands. even republican primary voters, and potentially ideologically conservative ones in arizona, 45% oppose the abortion ban and only 20% strongly supported it. we are seeing not a lot of support for these bands which makes people wonder where they're coming from. in kansas the referendum overturned the band which people

found surprising given it is a fairly conservative voter base. we are going to see whether state legislature and governor's decide to work with public opinion on this or the vested interests lie elsewhere. host: samara klar, a professor at the university of arizona school of government and public policy, on twitter at