mobile app, and that c-span .org/campaign2022. c-span is your unfiltered view of government. we are funded by these television companies and more, including cox. >> homework can be hard, but squatting in a diner for internetwork is even harder. that's why we are providing lower income students access to affordable internet. so homework can just be homework. cox conct to compete. >> cox along with these other television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. >> with the election day on tuesday, both president biden and former president obama are on the campaign trail. today there in pennsylvania campaigning for senate candidate john fetterman and john shapiro.

you can also follow along on c-span.org or with our free video app, c-span now. " continues. host: we will focus on key battleground states food will focus on wisconsin, arizona, and other states today. joining us to start this discussion is jonathan tamari of the philadelphia inquirer. he is there political reporter. thank you for joining us. tell us what is at play as of today. guest: you got two major races that have national implications, both at very different stages. the governor's race looks like the democrat over republican. but this is really one of the most consequential elections possibly in the whole country. there is a republican legislature, so republicans are said to with the governor's office as well. they could drastically change abortion laws in the state, voting laws, and the winner of

where the governor's will point the secretary of state, who oversees the certification of the 2024 presidential election. as we all know, the 2020 pennsylvania election results were challenge. they will be a major swing state in 2024. oversight and control over that election apparatus is at stake. at the moment, it looks like josh schapiro has a pretty great lead. we have seen that in pennsylvania before, so we have to wait for that real results. the next race that is also of national importance is the senateac that one looks and can between democrat john fetterman and republican men met oz -- mehmet oz. this is the opportunity to gain a seat anywhere in the country. it could very well determine who controls the senate next year. there is a lot of money pouring in nationally, a lot of attention on this race. at the moment, it really looks like it could go either way on

election day. host: where are both candidates getting support within the commonwealth? what parts of the state are at play there? guest: from what we see, the breakdowns are pretty typical from republicans and democrats. they're getting support in suburbs which have become increasingly blue over the last few years. the more conservative places, the central part of the state, the northeast and southwest have trended more republican and appear also to be still staying that way. they've tried to make inroads in the other person's territory. federman made a big deal about being a democrat that he says can appeal in rural areas. oz has been in campaign events in philadelphia. he clearly made an appeal to suburban voters by talking about crime and trying to portray himself as something more moderate than other republicans. i think we are yet to see that

make a big dent with the races so close, that if one candidate could shave even a couple percentage points off here and there, it could really make up a difference. host: we saw that playoff between both gentlemen last week. how does that go into who pulls ahead? guest: we are waiting to see that. it is essentially tied going into that debate. by most accounts, it was a difficult night for john fetterman. people may or may not know he is recovering from a very significant stroke that he had in may. he seems to be cognitively ok, but he has speech problems and auditory problems. he struggled to really make his points during that debate. his speech was halting at times and he struggled to respond to criticisms. we are waiting to see some polling to see what effect that had. did that really move voters or has there been a lot of polling after the debate that has become public yet? there are times that folks watching, we have one impression, and voters have a

different impression. a lot of people think it was a bad night for john fetterman. while it was already a close race, we are waiting to see some data that can show us whether that is really backed out. host: our look at pennsylvania as we started week long look at battleground states leading up to the midterm elections. if you want to ask our guess questions about how pennsylvania is playing out, it is (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. and (202) 748-8002 for independents. if you are a resident pennsylvanian want to give us a call us at (202) 748-8003. you can also text as well. what about the separation of the governor's race between republican and democrat? guest: there are probably a few factors there. josh schapiro is someone who has won a number statewide, but he has been someone who is just admired from a political perspective for his own skill at building coalitions to being a

relentless campaigner, fundraising, doing all the basics of politics, even gaining and building support from republicans in pennsylvania. he has just run a relentless campaign and seems to know what works in pennsylvania. he also has the benefit of running against doug mastery anna, who is a pretty far right figure for anyone, particularly a state as moderate as pennsylvania. he has very far reviews on issues like abortion and voting, and other topics. because of that, he has really struggled to raise money. he has run virtually no television ads in this past week did -- past week. pennsylvania is such a big state, there are so many media markets, so many people to reach, it is not something you can really win by knocking on doors spared you have to be on tv. schapiro has been the only one on tv. he has been running an efficient

campaign. they seem to think it is a lost cause and are not putting money behind mastriano. oz is personally wealthy and has put his own money on television to compete with federman. federman is well-funded from small donors he has had to add his campaign. it is pretty evenly matched between the two of them with the money they have. national republican groups has poured money into that state to support oz. oz has made an attempt since the primaries to head toward the metal, to swing the voters who are indecisive in pennsylvania. he is not just financially, but strategically different from mastriano. that looks like a classic pennsylvania race, and can for the republicans. host: we're going to see other candidates coming in. we saw president biden and the vice president last week. we will see them again. i think president obama also

expected to pay a visit. i think former trump is going to visit as well. guest: this coming weekend is going to look like a very busy week and, as it often is in pennsylvania this time of year. president trump is coming out from that southwestern area where he had a lot of success with rural working class voters. he will be up there to try to rally republican support. president biden, we expect him to be back. he was just there this we can. president obama is expected to be in. the final details have not been firmed up yet, but we expect him to come. we expect obama and biden will likely go to democratic strongholds. resin biden's ratings overall are not great, but if he goes to deeply boot -- deep blue areas, he can likely turn i democratic base. the fact that you are seeing the current president and former president, and former president

before that are coming to pennsylvania, it tells you how important these elections are both now and it's all most like we are seeing a proxy for 2024, when the state will be crucial to the next presidential election. host: for those of you who live in pennsylvania, we have a line for you. that is where our first call comes from. mike, you are on with our guest. go ahead. caller: good morning, gentlemen. i am first going to say that i'm going to support federman basically for the fact that yeah, he did have a stroke, but for the whole state, the republicans pick a guy from new jersey who hasn't even lived in pennsylvania. i think that should be something that is brought up to all the viewers. how can you support someone from new jersey, who just moved into his mother-in-law's? he says he cares about pennsylvania, but i just don't see that as a legitimate claim. guest: that has certainly been

one of the major weights that weighed on oz's campaign he spent more than 30 years living in north jersey, working in new york as a surgeon, and he moved to pennsylvania in late 2020, where became clear that there was going to be an open senate seat after the current person said they were going to run for reelection. they argue it goes to a bigger issue when they say that oz is not trustworthy or not authentic , and he is basically in this for himself, that's the argument. i will say his wife's family grew up in suburban philadelphia. he went to the university of pennsylvania for his medical degree and business degree. he said that he cares about the state, obviously, but democrats have been hammering this fact that he did not move back to the state until this senate seat came open. his image has really taken a beating. federman's has, too, but oz has been much worse in polling. immigrants hope that is maybe

the thing that sways these undecided voters in the final days, that they don't feel like maybe they can trust oz, and maybe that pulls them toward federman and makes a decisive difference. host: a neighbor to pennsylvania, delaware is our next stop. that is frank on the republican line. go ahead. caller: i would just like to say that when it comes to these democrats, they don't care who they put in office, just as long as he says yes when they want to pass a bill or ask for money, or whatever. biden is a very good example. he can't do nothing. look at him. he is impossible. now he's going to pride to put -- going to try to put federman in there, too. come on, wake up. thank you so much. guest: federman has said that he would be the 51st vote for a number of things that democrats have tried to do. he would end the filibuster, he would vote for the women's

health protection act, which was codified in roe v. wade. he wants to vote for the proactive, which is a significant bill for union laws. he would support much of the democratic agenda. he has supported bidens agenda, so that is his addition. he is putting that out there. host: some of the ads have been playing out in pennsylvania, with the federman and oz campaign. let's start with john fetterman. >> this is joe harris from stew country. it has been a while since we had a senator from western pa. those years have not been great. washington forgot us. that is why i am with john fetterman. he has been fighting here for 20 years. washington sees us as rugged. john sees steel. john will fight to make more stuff here, cut taxes on working people, and make sure no one forgets our home. >> i am john fetterman and i approve this message.

>> pennsylvanians are in pain. i see it in your faces, your eyes. inflation is hurting everyone. gas prices, food prices, retirement savings, diminished. john fetterman would raise everyone's taxes, making inflation that much worse. we need more balance and less extremism in washington. i'm not a politician, i am a heart surgeon. more importantly, a husband and a dad. i'm ready to improve people's lives. that is what doctors do. i am dr. oz and i approve this message. host: the statements made in those ads, when it comes to john fetterman, he talked about this idea of making things and that washington forgot us. that has been a theme of his campaign. guest: exactly. he picked two really good examples for how this campaign is running. john's campaign has been less about specific legislation and specific policies, and more about this feeling, one that honestly trump tapped into in a different way, that there are

communities in pennsylvania that have been left in high -- left behind. him kind of saying that he is going to fight for these forgotten communities in a very different way than trump, but kind of try to reach some of the same voters in the same sentiment that a lot of economic prosperity's and cultural power has gone to these big cities and that other places have been lost. he is making that case from a democratic perspective, which is interesting because you haven't seen any democrats make that effectively, may be given the fact that he is the mayor of a very small steel town outside of pittsburgh that has struggled economically. he has had a different image than most politicians and maybe he can reach those voters in ways that other democrats from big cities can't. do you want to talk about allies? -- always -- oz? host: yeah, go ahead.

guest: he is talking about being against extremism, being a doctor that is pragmatic. that is the kind of tactic that usually works for republicans in pennsylvania. they have a slight registration disadvantage in the state. overall registration in slightly more democratic. they need to reach swing voters in order to when. that is clearly what he is attempting with these ads. host: a tear from another pennsylvanian. this is rod, hello. caller: good morning. just like the wizard of oz, dr. oz is a fraud. he is a snake oil salesman and he has been sued by many other organizations. at least john fetterman, he may have had a stroke, and the debate was really a joke. when you are a senator, you have more than 15 seconds to look over a bill and then pass it.

that was really kind of a disingenuous way too grade a potential senator. i think that pauses really going to stand for the trump administration. four years of term, western pennsylvania has not gained anything. all the promises of infrastructure never happened and they probably never would have happened. even if he had had a second term. the guy was a joke. so, yeah, let's keep john fetterman in their. i think some of the advertisements against him were definitely phony, especially when it said he didn't work. he worked. he was a teacher, a mayor, lieutenant governor for eight years. he paid taxes. they say he didn't, but he had to pay taxes if he was getting payroll. host: thank you, caller.

we want to clarify some issues. guest: talking about them it which questions of awes and -- oz and the way those things go. there has been attempts to cut john fetterman's working-class image. he was a mayor, $150 per month was his only salary pair his family supported him significantly in his 30's and deep into his 40's, basically prop him up financially, helped him purchase his home, pay his expenses. we don't have the exact extent of that because it was only disclosed for one year, considering a ballpark of about $50,000. we don't know if other years were more or less. that is the way republicans have tried to undercut him. as the caller said, john fetterman would argue that he was doing work, even if it did not pay a lot of money. he was serving a community, working as mayor and a nonprofit

as well. he said he could have went on and made a lot of money, but he chose to dedicate himself to public service. public and say you don't know what it is like to be a working person because you did not have to live paycheck-to-paycheck. you are seeing these contrast. when oz is talking about inflation and the strain that is putting on people, that is where you get to the question of his image. voters are concerned about inflation, we know that. but do they trust that he is someone who understands them and will fight for them? that is one of the major questions. host: considering the commonwealth and mining energy, when it comes to fracking and other related issues. guest: oz has been very pro-fracking. that has been his answer to everything. he said let's put a liquid natural gas plant in philadelphia i get more money for school spirit he ask him

about crime, he says let's put a liquid natural gas plant in philadelphia and there will be more jobs and better employment opportunities. he is all in on that. he brought in rick perry, who was president trump's energy secretary, to support him. he is very pro-fracking, even though he has made comments or bylined a newspaper column in the past that raised concerns. he says that was her advice colleague and not him, but his name was on the story. caller -- fetterman has also made negative comments about fracking in the past, even as recently as 2018 said he was not for, and now says he is for it. in his view, environment or concerns, but also jobs and economic stimulus that the industry supplies. both of them have kind of reversed themselves a little bit. there are both in favor of it. fetterman might tell you little more about them are mental concerns, while oz is a drill,

drill, drill. host: in may of 2022, there were 8.7 million registered voters within the commonwealth. 4 million democrats, three .4 million republicans, about one million plus other parties. how many of those have voted already leading up to the election? guest: we are getting up to the tens of thousands. i have not looked at the most recent numbers. there are tens of thousands with mail-in voting. the belief generally among political operatives is that those voting early on by mail probably knew who they were voting for from the very start of the race, people who are very engaged in politics. they have a strong feeling whether it is democratic or republican. in pennsylvania, the mail-in voting tends to be much more heavily democratic. president trump sold a lot of doubt about mail-in voting for

republicans. 2020 -- like in 2020, mail-in voting can be counted a little later because it takes longer for them to show up. we will probably see republican numbers first on election night. host: what about the 2020 process, how much has been corrected through this cycle? guest: there still a challenge and that they are not allowed to begin counting mail-in ballots until election day. that means there is a pile of mail-in ballots that are waiting to be sorted through. that is what can lead to some of those delays. host: let's hear from emma. she is in north carolina. you are on with our guest. good morning, emma. go ahead. caller: yes, i am a first-time color. i would like to know if it is true or not that dr. oz is a citizen of turkey. and did he vote in turkey's 2018 election? i would also be interested in

knowing if he was involved with michael flynn in his business in turkey. thank you. i will take my answer offline. guest: it is true that he is a dual citizen of turkey. his parents were born in turkey, emigrated to the united states. he says he maintains his dual citizenship so that he can very easily go and visit his mother over in turkey, who lives there, and i believe she is older and ill. that is his argument or his statement. he has said during the republican primaries, he said he would give up his dual citizenship if he is elected to the senate. this came up significantly during the primaries as publican apartments -- republican opponents brought this up. fetterman has not pressed that case against him. i believe that oz did recently vote in a turkish election. that has may come up during the

primary. it has not come up as much during the general election. he would be the first muslim elected to the u.s. senate ever. but again, he has not talked about that, fetterman it has not been an issue, but it would be a historic first, if he was a -- elected. host: our next caller is buzz. caller: i have not called in a long time because i have noticed how slanted c-span has become. we have a -- i am amazed that anyone is considering voting for federman. we already have one invalid in the white house.

even if he could talk, his views are so far left, it is amazing. i keep hearing these people say that oz isn't from pennsylvania. where is hillary clinton from? no one bitched about that. federman is making such a big deal about oz. oz did live in pennsylvania. he went to school in philly. host: thanks. when it -- guest: when it comes to federman and his speech and his stroke, there is some concern that, that will be the lasting impression of him. most people do not get to see him on a regular basis. that debate may be the one time people see him taking questions

. i have in him much more able to express himself than he was on that debate stage. people recovering from an illness will have some good days and some bad days. we have talked to some medical experts who say that that kind of pressurized setting can be particularly challenging for someone who has speech issues. we have not seen anything that says federman has cognitive issues. we do not have the full picture from all of his doctors but there is the impression that that debate left and other people have not necessarily seen his rallies or interviews. as far as oz's, there it -- as far as oz's residency, there is

a history of people moving to new states to run their. he is in the area much more affiliated with new york. pennsylvania has a very parochial feeling. a lot of people who live in pennsylvania were born there. there are not as many people who migrate in and out of pennsylvania. there is a chip on the shoulder in certain parts of pennsylvania. that might make it more difficult to run as an outsider there. new york state is used to seeing people come from all over the world to live in manhattan and places around it. would -- oz wouldn't be the first person to move to run for public office. host: jonathan tamari joins us.

if you want to keep your right to choose, remember what is a set who decides. >> local political leaders. >> and what that means for you. >> is that at accurate? >> it is accurate of best part is what he said about local political leaders being involved.

pennsylvania may have a different lot than new jersey, may have different law than massachusetts, may have a different law than massachusetts. democrats feel like this is a giant gap that is going to offend a lot of voters, particularly suburban women voters, and that's why they emphasize it in such a high-profile ad. democrats feel like that moment might give them something. there's an argument for that. there's an argument on the others that most voters know where he stands on abortion, so even that one statement is not kind of going to change anybody's opinion that if you really care about abortion, you

probably already know which way you are voting, but that's a moment democrats will keep replaying until election day. caller: i just want to say that i hope viewers understand that if federman gets in, he will not be serving his term, his wife will. it is an unspoken thing that they have. he will not be able to finish his term or do his term because of his health concerns and his wife will be doing it for him. democrats have a history of doing that. the husband dies or has health issues, and the wife steps in and takes the role, so that's the goal, to get his wife in there without her having to campaign. host: if i may ask, how do you come to that? caller: i do a lot of reading, let's just say that. i read all kinds of websites, left, right, in between.

host: when it comes to that fact, where did you come to that specifically? caller: it popped up on different places i was reading. i cannot tell you one specific area. and it makes sense. it makes sense. guest: i have not heard any reporting to that effect or anything. there's always speculation about candidates, but there have been senators who have had strokes, who have recovered and served out their terms. if federman for some reason did have to resign, i believe the government of pennsylvania would appoint a replacement and there would be a special election. his wife is a major presence on the campaign trail, but to say that there is a plot to replace him, i don't think we have any facts that back that up right now. host: in indiana, democratic line, we will hear from judith. caller: first thing i want to do

is apologize for the gentleman that called. c-span is known to be fair and let everybody air their concerns. i want to apologize to you guys because you do a great job letting the general public express themselves. my call is about the gentleman and the female that said even though federman has had a stroke, he can do the job. donald trump was in there for four years. believe me, united states. come on, america, search your souls and hearts and do the right thing for the country and the constitution. thank you, c-span. host: i guess one of the aspects is looking at the whole job of the senator, not just the ability to give speeches, and that is maybe a concern for some. guest: there is.

in a state as large as pennsylvania, you might hope 3, 4, 5 events in a day. it is a vast state. there's a lot of work. there's a lot of communicating with people, with constituents, with interest groups, with other senators, and just making the case for the policies you support, for the party you support, so there are a lot of questions about how effective -- of if federman can keep up that schedule. his campaign schedule has increased, but is not as active, as you would expect, before the stroke. he is for five months into his recovery. medical experts tell us this is still a pretty early stage of his recovery, so i think we are still waiting to see kind of where the endpoint is. i don't think anybody knows that yet. host: mary is in pittsburgh. good morning. caller: thank you so much for

putting me on air. it is my first time calling c-span. i have been thinking about how much of this race and dr. oz's campaign specifically, is built on a foundation of misinformation. we forget his entire career has been built around selling people misinformation. he is not a real doctor. he is -- he was selling people lies when he was working on oprah's television show and i think he has been selling misinformation to people in pennsylvania who have felt so ignored and forgotten by people in the sea i urge voters in pennsylvania to look at nonpartisan, factual information when voting dark opinion about who they are going to vote for next week -- voting their opinion about who they are going to vote for next week. host: you say he is not a real doctor. what leads you to that opinion? caller: he has the credentials, but he has been selling misinformation for so long. guest: that is representative of

what democrats hope is an attitude or belief that will work against us, that he cannot be trusted. that his history means you cannot believe what he says. he does have a history on television of selling questionable products, questionable advice that a lot of doctors have problems with and was just not accurate, and in some cases, may have had some financial price for the kind of advice he was giving out. that is accurate. before he had a tv career, he was quite renowned as a heart surgeon in new york, taught at columbia university, practiced medicine at new york presbyterian. did some very high-profile surgeries, patented a number of devices and medical procedures, so he was actually very renowned as a doctor, but there are a lot of people in the profession that had a big problem once he had his television show.

host: ramona in kentucky, republican line. caller: hi, there. i am registered republican but i don't intend it to vote republican. we had another carpetbagger come in our state a few years ago who ran for governor. he looked shiny, new, he made promises. he cut the unemployment agencies in lots of smaller cities. he promised a big aluminum meal in eastern kentucky. when the pandemic hit there was no way for these people to get in and file claims for unemployment. he was just a carpetbagger coming in. stay with your local politicians that you know. kentucky does have those popping jays with the curly hair that have been voted in over and over. i hope this will be their last year.

host: tomorrow you said this could be what we see play out in the next week or so could have implications in 2024. could you expand on that? guest: there are two ways. pennsylvania was one of the main states donald trump try to overthrow the results in in 2020. targeted the philadelphia vote. he wanted to have the results thrown out in congress. it was one of two states formally challenged in congress on january 6. the challenge in pennsylvania happened after the right -- the right -- the riot. whoever the two nominees are they are going to see pennsylvania as the key to winning the presidency.

counting the votes on election day, certifying the results, that could come down to the administration of the governor. whoever the governor is, takes the secretary of state, the secretary of state decides how those votes are counted and certified. we saw the secretary of state resisted pressure to stop the count of votes. the republicans were not able to send in an alternate slate in their place. that is the governor's side. the senate side, congress certifies the final outcome. in 2020 republican pat toomey, you had bipartisan opposition. even from someone who supported trump and supported trump's policies. oz will replace him or federman will replace him. if there is another attempt to overthrow the results, how will pennsylvania senators vote?

federman has made it clear he will not vote to throughout the results of the election. oz has raised questions about the 2020 election during the primary. he has also said he would have voted to certify the votes anyway. he has been endorsed by donald trump. one of them could very well have a say if there is a repeat of 2020. one of them will have a say in 2024. host: a long look at battleground states, starting with pennsylvania. our guest, jonathan tamari is a national reporter for the philadelphia inquirer. thank you. ♪ >> we are in philadelphia as we

wait for today's event to begin. president biden and former president barack obama were originally scheduled to start speaking at 4:30. they are running behind. we will have live coverage when the event begins starting here on c-span. ♪ >> ♪ and losing ♪ ♪

>> ♪ all my ladies popular back with it -- pop your back with it ♪ >> he is director of muhlenberg college's school of public opinion. thank you for your time today. talk about the institute, your job with pulling, especially when it comes to election years. >> muhlenberg college in allentown, pennsylvania, eastern side of the state. we do a lot of public opinion polling, primarily in the commonwealth, but some national

surveying to on policy issues like energy and the environment. host: can you talk about your process, who you talk to, the amount of people you talk to. guest: right now, our standard methodology is still telephone, primarily cell phone in terms of a contact point for individuals. our sampling is based off of voter files as our frame. in other words, we use voter files to give us a sense of past voter records of the individuals we will be calling. a little background information demographically about them, too, we can help in our modeling. our sample size are usually around 400 to 500 based on our capability, and there are

various races throughout the state. of course, this fall, we are looking statewide with polls, including one we will be releasing this week, but also, locally, here in the seventh congressional district, which is the lehigh valley, and the seventh congressional is one of the more focused on swing districts in the country right now. host: because you do this quite often, what do you want viewers to know about pennsylvania? guest: i was listening in on jonathan, who knows the state really well. it is a purple state in so many different types of metrics. a lot of people look back historically at our presidential performance since the 1980's up until 2016 when donald trump won the state, it has been won by democrats, but if you look down ballot, senatorial races, congressional races, gubernatorial races, which we can talk about, statehouse races , really, really competitive state, which makes it, of course, from a pulling

perspective, always challenging to look at because in any particular race, it could be incredibly close. we saw that in 2016. we saw it again in 2020, and i imagine there will be some races this year both statewide and at the congressional level that reflect that. host: call us again if you want to ask questions about pennsylvania. in september, you did a poll statewide taking a look at various races. talk about the governor's race, at the time, 53% of those who pulled saying they are going to go for the democrat, josh shapiro, over doug mastriano, 42%. how much has that changed, and why do you think that is?

guest: that was september. lots of polls have come out since. we will be releasing some numbers that show that race has more or less stayed where we had it september and lots of other posts since with our attorney general democratic nominee, josh shapiro, holding a double-digit lead or high digit -- high single digit lead over doug mastriano. this race is one where in many ways, democrats have elected a candidate that i think is there a list candidate in their state. josh shapiro has won statewide office before, is a prominent figure in democrat politics, very managed candidate, knows how to raise funds, and has set himself up in this race as probably the best the democrats could offer. on the others, state senator doug mastriano, won a very contested republican primary, has the support of

pennsylvanians that fall into the populist wing of the maga movement, if you will. while i think it was an impressive win in the primaries, he might not be the best candidate statewide, even in a great cycle for republicans, to match a statewide general election audience, and i think he struggled. he struggled in fundraising to get his message out. he has not been on the air while josh shapiro has been on the air almost since the beginning of the general election, even during the primary in some ways. targeting mastery auto and building an image that he is too extreme for pennsylvania. host: at the time you compiled this, democrat john fetterman had 49% of support.

talk about why you think this is a close race versus what you are seeing for republicans in the governor's race? guest: there is a disparity there, which leads us to the belief there is at least a significant portion of split ticket voters in the state. that seems to be the rule if you look at the polling, moving not only ours, but other polls. why is that closer? again, candidate quality of course matters. john fetterman, as many people would know, is this unique brand in pennsylvania polish -- pennsylvania politics, from his image, his appearance, and the way he kind of positions himself in temporary politics in pennsylvania, as a progressive, but with some twists. he ishe has attracted a lot of individuals to his campaign. he is an interesting brand. dr. mehmet oz, the republican nominee, is a national figure, a tv doctor that rose to fame.

he has his own unique brand. one of the big defining features for him that i think limits his ability in the state is his relationship to pennsylvania. he to medical school met. most recently, new jersey and that has been a big hurdle for him to get over. lay in the philadelphia media market -- largely in the philadelphia media market making the case that john fetterman is tough on crime where the issue is salient and making john fetterman less attractive to older, more moderate voters where his brand may not be a natural fit. i think this certainly close the

race over september into october. the debate last week, then a pay for performance -- the debate performance about a week ago raised more questions about the lieutenant governor's ability to compete or hold office. as he recovers from a stroke he had in may, i think this race is, by almost every measure we can , really competitive.

>> in the september survey you talked about categories of interest and the economy was top of list. guest: it is an enormous issue. the hopeful republicans in this cycle is they look back two years ago, three years ago, whatever the reference point. and say, maybe things were better economically. certainly on a metric like inflation there is evidence of that. republicans, when you look at the messaging in pennsylvania and beyond, it is focused on that. they are increasingly focused on that as an issue. they have democrats on the defensive. when we break it down and look at people to that say that is their number one issue,

inflation and economic issues, publicans overwhelmingly are in front.

we went back to our 2018 polling. 3% of pennsylvania said it was the top issue in 2018. when we we were: last months it was over 20%. there is no guesswork why that is the case. what happened in june with the supreme court elevated the issue significantly. in many ways, it might not change the overall outcomes in 2020, but it changed the race significantly, giving democrats a boost in terms of energy. look in the gubernatorial race in pennsylvania where the issue has been front and center given real differences between the two party nominees on the issue. host had overcome of pennsylvania. sharon, hello. sharon: i am a senior citizen

and my friends and i are blue dots in a red sea, central pennsylvania. aside from strategic oil reserves, presidents do not control the oil markets. it is a complex, global system. furthermore, in the debate, dr. oz had a huge list of things. he kept saying, i will not do this and that. well, we believe if he is elective he will cave to intense republican right-wing pressure to get into lockstep. finally, the, excuse me, i am sorry. that's all. i mean, as far as doug mastriano

, anyone could see that he is psychologically upset. host: that is sharon from pennsylvania. she used the term blue dot in a red sea. how do you respond? guest: that is a good analysis. sharon is right. where she lives in hanover township, i think in south central pennsylvania, it's overwhelmingly a conservative area of the state. it is part of the picture of pennsylvania. jonathan talked about some of the state demographics and landscape.

it is a big state and very diverse. with the southeast being largely democratic. allegheny county, pittsburgh, largely democratic. there are pockets in other smaller urban areas. but, you have a lot of rural areas, townships across the state. one of the country's largest rural population is in pennsylvania. we often think of it as an urban state with places like philadelphia and pittsburgh. host: opinions of president joe biden. at the time you took this it was a 43% approval rating and a 50 2% disapproval rating. how much is president biden -- 50 food -- 52% disapproval rating.

how much is president biden a part of the cycle? guest: it is a big part of the cycle. we call them midterms for a reason. it is mid presidential term. elections are being held. often we think of midterms as a referendum on the president's party. there is a reason historically the president's party has suffered. because the factors of american politics. our dna. we often move away from what we did in the past election to some degree. presidential approval ratings add to the challenge for republicans. historically presidents have had strong approval ratings add their party still loses. when they have weaker approval ratings their party tends to lose more. i think those conditions are present in the cycle making it a challenge for democrats are pennsylvania and nationally.

host: it is jeanette in pittsburgh. jeanette: thank you. are you my first time caller. -- i am a first time caller. my question is, what is the percentage for the state of pennsylvania? they talk about the economy. what is the percentage from donald trump's administration and biden's administration and how the economy is good or bad. host: that is jeanette. just great -- guest great question. it depends on the election cycle, but the black vote is

between the highest single digits to 10%, 11%, 12% depending on the race at the cycle. -- in this article. that is a crucial electorate, by far the most democratic already pennsylvania and nationally. black voters are throughout pennsylvania with heavy concentrations in pennsylvania and pittsburgh, certainly in philadelphia. the share of the vote is important. the turnout among black voters in pennsylvania is a driver for democratic candidate statewide. that's why you see a lot of attention there. former president obama in town

in philadelphia. president biden. other surrogates focusing on philadelphia to make sure democratic turnout in this article that often -- in this cycle that often includes a significant portion of black voters in philadelphia is higher and competitive in the state to ensure that once you get the overall picture, that portion is added in. host: you asked about the likelihood of them voting. do you see those turnout numbers in a midterm cycle? just -- guest: it is high. our modeling poles start by looking at past voting behaviors as we establish a sample firm to identify people who have voted a lot in other midterm elections or other elections. among that group, we ask specifically, as you said, pedro, what they think.

then we go back over time and we look and there are signs, clear signs turnout in the cycle will be high. voting goes on in the state already, other measures we see in terms of voter enthusiasm give us the suggestion that this will be a higher end midterm election. we saw in 2018 that this was very much the case in pennsylvania. our turnout approximated past presidential elections. i think 2022 will look more than 20 -- 2018 that 2014. host: from muhlenberg college, the director of the institute for public opinion. terry, you are on with our guest. caller: good morning gentlemen. good morning america.

i have a problem, here. everybody is saying about how good the economy was when joe biden took over. which, for some of us, the economy was not so bad. there were also millions upon millions of people that were laid off. there were thousands upon thousands, if not millions of people waiting in food lines for food. how was this good for the people of america is my question. host: that was terry in wellsville. guest: terry, bringing up the economic views of americans, how they feel about the economy, certainly there are measures of economic performance from gdp to unemployment to inflation that give a mixed bag about where we are as a country, where we are in pennsylvania on these issues. often, it comes down to perception of where you are,

which things you are elevating, and which things are most salient to you as a floater. i think this is where public opinion polling comes in. we look at how people are viewing the economy and there are significant concerns. americans are not pleased with the state of the economy. i think inflationary pressures have really taken a toll on public sentiment. even with some pretty low unemployment levels nationally. but as economics measures look, wage increases, in relation to the increases already prices, that gap, i think is wave on a lot of voters towards election day.