>> buckeye broadband support c-span is a public servic along with these other television providers giving you a front row seat to democracy. >> this morning on washington journal after a look at the news and some calls inside elections jacob and aaron break down tuesday's elections and key races to watch. robin talks about efforts by the federal reserve and biden administration to control inflation. join the conversation with your phone calls, text messages, facebook comments and tweets. washington journal is next. ♪ host: this is the washington journal for november 6. a gallup survey found one out of

every three voters describe themselves as an independent voter not tied to one party. others were described himself as swing voters. both are being closely watched this election cycle especially as it will help determine who holds power in the house and senate. this hour we want to hear from you -- from independent and swing voters and like to find out how you plan to vote on this eltion day. call and let us know for independent and swiers only today. if you right, 202-748-8001 -- 202-748-8000 ishe number to call. if you lean left, 202-748-8001 if you are undecided, 202-748-8002. you can text us at 202-748-8003. you can follow the show on facebook and on twitter and also follow the show on instagram. gallup poll does regular surveys of their respondents about where they are as far as parties concerned in the recent poll in october, early october from the third to the 20th, here's how it

broke down with independent inc. 35% of respondents one, to party affiliation. that's followed by republicans at 3%. democrats at 29%. ifou go to news out of utah they did aoll asked about how independents choose candidat. 33% event appended voters said republicans do a better b at choosing candidates versus 28% by 25 percent said neither party did a good job choosing th. 65% said they were excited about the preferred candidate for the house. 60% saying the same about their choice for the senate. so for the first hour for independent and swing voters as we hear from you, tell us what you're thinking as far as election day is concerned and who you're planning to vote for. 202-748-8000 if you lean right. 202-748-8001 if you lean right. if you're undecided,

202-748-8002 is how you can contact us. as we wait for your calls, we will talk with rich, the moderator of on the call the swing voter project joining us now. thanks for joining us. guest: thank for having me. host: tell us about your project. guest: it's a project we do every month in conjunction with axios the news organization along with an organization called the/intergroup recruits swing voters in focus groups. what we do is conduct online focus groups with people who voted for donald trump in 2016 and then flipped to joe biden and 2020. >> so when it comes to defining as these things probably are not as clean as far as the definition is concerned and your talk with these people, how is it set to understand who and independent is or is swing voter is. guest: we've a pretty narrow definition of swing voter to people who voted for trump in 16 to biden in 20.

other people use other definitions. voting for the same party consistently in election over election. there's other ways of defining independent or swing voters. we use this definition because it gives us a specific targeted group we can recruit month after month who have a proven track record of voting for two different parties in the last two presidential elections. >> talking with these voters what did you learn about, what motivates them and what drives them as they make a decision? >> a few characteristics stand out. they often vote much more for the candidate than they do for the party or the issue. so the looking at personality more than may be typical more partisan voter would. that's really an important characteristic. another one is a lot of them tend to be in a perpetual state of dissatisfaction. oftentimes people voting for obama and got sick of him and

voted for trumpeter sick of him and now voted for biden in 20. so there's a sense that there's always disappointment, they wanted someone a person didn't work out and they have to go on to someone else. >> is it easy for them to make these decisions as far as a very swing voter voting for a of another party or an independent going from one to another, is it an easy decision for them or something they struggle with. guest: summing the wrestle with but not necessarily for partisan reasons but the fact that they basically have to look at the candidates, their personalities, whether trustworthy or not and they often do wrestle with those. i think it's not an easy call for a number of them but they are to make up their mind. and i think part of it is if they come to an election cycle and they look at whose disappointed them, who has come through if anybody has and they try to wait in terms of expectations met versus expectations not met.

>> we've been talking to several of these types of voters in the key states that we've all been watching. tell us about your experience and you talk with a group of voters in pennsylvania. tell us what you learn from them. guest: to give your viewers a sense, since april we've done focus groups in pennsylvania, georgia, florida, north carolina, arizona and wisconsin. we circled back to pennsylvania couple weeks ago. so for a lot of these voters, they are not particularly in love with the choices they have for senate candidates and gubernatorial candidate sprayed i will say because a lot of people flipped from trump to biden, that there's a real dissatisfaction with trump as well as biden. so if a candidate is trump-endorsed with a number of these people that makes the candidate less enticing to them as opposed to more.

that's true with a number of focus groups. did not want trump or biden to run again in 2024. the looking for fresh faces, people who they think and move the country forward and they don't want people who are as old as trump and biden are to be in office. so the looking for new blood and i think candidates who are able to talk to them about what matters to them, issues like the economy, inflation, jobs as well as crime and abortion, that does matter. these are all over the place in terms of the issues that matter to them. >> about the issues that are involved, we hear from reporting and other sources also the economy of the top of this list. is that what you found. >> in some month that fluctuates. i have seen certain months that abortion has been a top issue but most of the time for most of these people across these various states that i mentioned,

the economy in particular inflation is the number one issue. host: when it comes to swing voters in your talking about as far as they approach election day how involved are they talking about being part of the election cycle but do they go out and vote do you find that people hold off from voting altogether. >> most of the people say they are very likely to vote in tuesday's midterms. so these aren't people sitting by. i would say probably 90% of them intend to vote. >> as far as what you're watching for on tuesday looking at these groups of voters, what holds your interest? >> curious about what i heard in the states that i mentioned there seems to be a bit of a lean towards the democratic candidate for senate and governor. i'm curious to see whether or not these races that are close in the state that i mentioned, whether it's democrat or republican candidate wins and whether the voting by the swing

voters i'm talking to wouldn't anyway determine the outcome. it will be hard to know that but one reason i do this project is that these people can be our weathervane. there being heard by the voters. which arguments are the ones that are persuasive and what's in a push these people to the polls in one direction or the other. one thing i find is a lot of the messaging that comes from the candidates never makes it to the voters despite the millions and millions of dollars in advertising. a lot of these folks are not aware of the candidate and what they stand for. so i'm always intrigued by what makes it through and what drives this decision. >> our guest is rich. how can people find your site and research that you do. >> all the focus groups we've ever done and that goes back to focus groups with obama to trump voters before the election. we started in march of 2019.

all the focus groups we've done every single month are up at swingvoterproject.com. you can watch all the videos with monthly highlights and then each focus group is broken up by topic area within each month and all the focus groups are archived on the site. host: thank you for your time this morning in talking about this. so you've heard our guests talk about independent and swing voters. if you describe yourself as either of those things we want to hear from you and your thoughts on election day. 202-748-8000 if you tend to lean right. 202-748-8001 if you tend to lean left. give us a call if you are undecided at 202-748-8002. you can also text us at 202-748-8003. johnny new york leans right on this hour for independent swing voters. go ahead.

>> thanks for having me pedro. i definitely lean right. i've crossed the line many times and voted for democrats and republicans and try to focus on the candidate. i look at the situation today and i don't think there's any other choice. i'm looking at the inflation in the economy at the top of the list. i'm very concerned about the border and what's been done under this administration. what's particularly disturbing a lot of times, and i was horrified by the january 6 incident of course like most americans were. but the democrats are beating a dead horse and calling this attack on democracy. it seems no one's ever paid attention to what kind of an attack on democracy social media entities have committed. the deplatforming of the president, just the hunter biden

scandal. i believe i heard and someone can fact-check this for me. but about eight to 10% of the vote would have been changed in favor of trump if the hunter biden laptop incident was exposed. another real concern is the fbi involvement in this. i'm really concerned about that with these institutions and organizations, the fbi apparently, the irs have been weaponized. host: let's go to holly in washington, d.c. on our line for those undecided. good morning. caller: good morning. i'm undecided as to whether i will vote at all because i don't like either of them. i'm very disappointed -- i wouldn't say disappointed because i didn't have expectations but i'm not happy with what biden is doing with

his continued support of ukraine and his pouring money into weapons there and fighting that war until the last ukrainian. last night i listened to donald trump speech in pennsylvania which was just attacking biden but then when he comes out with his own positions he only says well putin would never have gotten away with it. he's not going to admit to the fact that we overthrew the ukrainian government in 2014 and we have been pressing on this. so it's war mongering and supremacy from either party. i just don't see how i could vote for either of them. host: do you have to vote for anyone in particular where you live? >> while there's local elections and i really am not very invested in that. let that go the way it will. we don't have any kind of vote in the senate or the house that registers one way or the other.

host: that's holly in washington dc. all of them making their travels to pennsylvania yesterday for a rally in support of those candidates particular in the senate and governors races. it was joe biden yesterday talking about his support of the democrats in that race talking about the overall importance of the election. you can find in our website. here's a portion from president biden last night. >> i think -- when i think of characterizing of john fetterman. this endorsement of him the philadelphia inquirer said john knows what his values are. it reminds me what have been saying for a long time. born and raised in scranton.

but for the longest time like many other small places did not have a television station. so philadelphia tv covered pennsylvania senators. i was known as pennsylvania's third senator. my point is i know pennsylvania well and john fetterman is pennsylvania. he is pennsylvania. [applause] and oz and pennsylvania? i lived in pennsylvania longer than oz has lived in pennsylvania and i moved away when i was 10 years old. host: lines on the screen if you want to pick the line that best represents you is your calling in those independent and swing voters. 202-748-8000 for those leaning

left, 202-748-8001 if you lean right. 202-748-8002 if you're uncided. mike leans left in saratog springs. >> good morning. this year i think it's most important than ever to vote straight democratic. i do believe we ar ready point in our history that we need to save democracy and it's just not honest to blame biden for everything. all yo to do is look aroundorld. lo at putting much every untry. so to blame biden for this is ridiculous. the democrats puome great changes that will take effect in next few years and hopefully republics n't get to take credit for everything. >> are you truly an indet or swing voter? have you voted from a republicans for time to tim >> yes.

i votedohn anderson way back when and i voted for ican. i tend to lean left that i've to vote straight democratic.. >> that would include the governce in new york. don't really like one icular businessmillion to put all these hate adshat governor holcomb was put on a much more fair and balanced advertisement. and what type of person leaks out with this. >> one of the other races in states to watch in the next couple of days, georgia we have a call later on on our lean right line. hello. >> go ahead. caller: my wife leans a little

left. because were also can a vote for the libertarian candidate and vote for camp for governor. and were going to vote for warnock for senator. she's can vote for the democrat for the local congresswoman who displaced carolyn bourdeaux. it's going democrat. the main reason why were doing that is because were not in a support any republicans who supported the stop the steal contest and to that end were not can a vote for herschel walker. i think he's a flawed human being in any case. more republicans lose elections maybe they will get their state

-- sanity back and start picking some candidates who are actually concerned about the future of this country. >> living in a household where one leans one way or the other. >> we've been doing it for years. so we've got it worked out. >> richard up next to new york on arlene right line. go ahead. caller: normally eileen laughed. i supported bernie. but this year i'm leaning right and in terms of our governors race i thing it's a pretty good indication of what may happen on tuesday because everyone i know is voting for lee zeldin.

that's because we have a crime wave that's happening. no one takes the subways alone anymore. it's extremely dangerous. career criminals literally in the subway and it was manufactured. this is what made me switch. our former mayor bill de blasio on june 15, 2020 he took the police out of the subways. on june 7, 2020. and not only that, took $1 billion away from police and that -- all that happened in 2020. do you see these trends where you live. >> that's a great question.

because the crime that used to be just inner-city is now going to the suburbs and its spreading fast. i had to get out here for a while during the lockdown. one thing i had to say about her, no one elected her. and that's one thing about new yorkers. no one elected kathy. so yes, and you know where she was saturday -- on thursday, she was in barnard college with ultraliberal women speaking out -- for an hour and a half and they spoke about abortion for an hour and a half. no one cares about abortion. >> by the way, as far as events for today that you can keep a track of that will point you to at 5:00 this afternoon, a president trump you saw him in

pennsylvania, you will travel to florida specifically miami f a stop to support marco rubio and his race there. u can see that event at 5:00. and our c-span.org website. when it comes president biden i new york he will be traveling to new york today in westcheste county for an event at sarah lawrence college featuring the governor. that you can see on the main channel at and our website 6:00 this evening is where you can watch that. if you miss these events you can go to our website at c-span.org to find them and if you download or c-span now app you can see them live as they stream they archived there for a short amount of time. in kansas on her undecided line we will hear from mitch next. >> good morning. how are you today. host: go ahead. caller: thank you so much for c-span paired what a wonderful

channel we. now let's get down to it. after moth the line define who kamala harris is. i don't know who that person is. secondly, i agree with the issues that the second previous caller was talking about in terms of money and specifically that we are not the only country that's facing all of this. it's a worldwide thing. joe biden has nothing to do with it. >> what does that mean for you this election cycle? >> you know what that is going to mean on tuesday? it's going to mean that in kansas, i'm get a vote for every democrat that's on the ballot,

i'm get a vote to retain all of the supreme court justice is that are up for election, that six of seven. i'm going to vote for local people on things like school board, etc., city council. who have reasonable arguments. >> we will go to john on arlene left line. caller: yes. >> you are on, go ahead. host: fine thanks, go ahead as far as would you define yourself as an independent or swing voter? caller: absolute -- actually i'm more of a democrat. i voted for republicans in the past, but that's when they were a little bit more sane.

before trump. host: so in this cycle you wouldn't define yourself as either one of those things. >> i would define myself as more of a democrat only because i hear the republicans talking and their blaming inflation on biden and their blaming everything, but not one of them has a solution. you ask of them and they tell you ok there's this problem, what's your plan. and then they go on about another thing that somebody else is done. host: ok. caller: instead of addressing the question. host: ok that's john in california having us a call. if you would, turn down your televisions getting on the air. that makes conversation go a lot more smoothly.

in pennsylvania last night former president trump traveled there to talk about not only the governors race there in the senate race as well, here's president trump from yesterday. [video clip] >> everybody i promise you in the very next, a very short amount of time, you are going to be so happy. [applause] >> and one of the reasons, i don't want to do that right now. but i really mean this, i want to focus tonight to be on dr. oz and on doug mastriano. . i want the focus to be on dr. oz and doug and the others that are running. i would say kelly is in pretty good shape.

leading by 39 points or something. he's leading by about 39. so i want the focus to be on that absolutely. now you can sit down everybody. that's quite exciting. >> you can find more on our website looking at partisan leaners, those who lean one way or another going to this election cycle. partisan leaners who identifies independent or something else but lean democratic or republican will nearly negative views of the opposing party as to partisan identifiers. nine in 10 republican leaners had a negative view of the democratic party while in a nearly identical percent of democratic leaners have a negative view of the gop. far less likely to hold favorable views of the party they lean towards. these are much more negative than years ago. about half of the democratic leaning independence now have a

favorable opinion of the democratic party down from roughly six in 10. and for republican leaners, a 53% now say they have a favorable view of the republican party as recently as two years ago. . so that's some of the research from pew especially when it comes to the independent and swing voters that we want to hear from in this hour. in pennsylvania on our line for those leaning right. caller: hello. i am leaning to the right because the democrats are too radical. we have an influx of illegal immigration and the prices have gone skyrocketing and i do believe that biden is responsible because he destroyed the gas lines, oil lines, he's taken away that sector of energy

and you can totally rely on solar and wind energy which are weather dependent sources. and i believe that we need to be more diversified in our energy sector. host: have you ever voted for democrats in the past? caller: no i haven't. the matter of fact the first time i voted was for donald trump because i see that he's for the middle class and i support his views. host: on her undecided line, this is from ken in kentucky. ken in kentucky go ahead. one more time for can. -- ken. do not forget if you are listening to the television you are listening on a delay. make sure you turn down the television as you are waiting to get on the line that way you can

jump right in as soon as we call your name. ivan is next in massachusetts on caller: hi, good morning. political junkie to be alive in america. i am having a ball. i am retired. i st watch this over and over. i am just mesmerized by this it has been fabulous.y. lifelong massachusetts liberal who now, you know, has k seen the light later in life. i haiend who i had not seenars, and he saidl has frozenver. i've always been a reliable liberal. now, not so much. i want to talk about new hampshire. i can follow that, becau we are a neighbor here massachusetts. believe me, i know new

hampshir this general -- he cleaned that ladies -- that lady's clock in the general election. he will win. host: what previous democrats have you voted for in massachusett caller: all of them. i used to thinkun rose and set on elizabeth warren. pen c-span used to say i wasemocraticctor, because i have for years, since the first time you went . now i am the other way. it is the poli are the democrats are ruining the country, and you have to accept it it somehow went offherack. i know there are a lot of people o feel like m, in massachusetts even, which is a veryal place. i just think the democrats a going to have a bad night, and u will see that in new hampshire, where i think the ge is definitely going to

easi defeat the woman there, kate hussan or whoever -- host: are yking about senator maggie hasn ere? caller: yesdid very poorly in the debates. he cleaned her clock -- host: l's hear from bruce in lorado springs, a viewer who leans left. hello. caller: good morning. thanks for taking my call. i am leaning pretty much more towards e left. i really do not understand -- you know, you vote the way you vote. but when you get a of people who have pretty much told you -- and i lis this show a lot. when people ca saying is causing inflation, i cannot afford anything, to me, it is like you need to learn how to budget yourself. me and my wife have been doing pretty good with this high

inflation or whatever you want to call it, trt of thing. we have our ut here who would not vote for if she was running for dogcatcher. but ng -- i listen to on the right who s, you put us back in,e will fix medicare and social security pair then you hear peoom the right who say my medicare and social security help me live, and you want to vote for people who want to take it away from you -- host: would you characterize yourself as an independent or swing voter? caller: i am an independent. i switched many years ago. i actually voted for mccain over obama many years ago. host: what made you do that? caller: experience. i thought he had more experience pair i went with a guy who i thought would be more helpful for the country. turned out obama was not bad. i voted obama the second time.

i try looking more at the issues. i do not go off of the emotional hate. you still have to drink milk and buying stuff. and a lot of these people, who say the economy is high -- i am not picking on them, i am sorry. but when i hear people talk about how the economy is bad, it is not too bad, because i see a whole lot of people in texas and everything, you are buying jerseys that ran we hundred dollars, you're going to buy for beer that cost $10 or $12 a pop, and you say you cannot afford groceries or gas and say it is biden's fault, look at your budget. host: ok k let's hear from president obama, one of the people there in pennsylvania. [video clip] >> josh'opponent -- josh's opponent.oh. he is willing to take the most

extreme positions on pretty much everything. i mean, you name it. global warming? he says it is fake science. doesn't matter what the thermometers say. should gay people be allowed to get married or adopt children? no, he doesn't think so. he does think it is ok to dress up in a confederate uniform for a staff photo at the college where he used to teach. and it wasn't even halloween. it was like casual friday or something. listen, pennsylvania, let's remember what century it is. [cheers]

and listen. this would be funny, it would be an "snl" skit, if it weren't so serious. you cannot let somebody that detached from reality ru your state. so let's get out and vote for somebody you can trust, josh shapiro. host: "the boston globe" takes a look at swing voters within racial groups as part of information they received from the swing voters project. 13% of latino voters say they are swing. 1.5% in blacks. a little over 6% amongst whites. overall, when it comes to swing voters, among those they surveyed, percent within those groups.

tell us what you think about this election cycle, the issues you are involved with. if you lean left, (202) 748-8000 . refueling right, (202) 748-8001. and for those undecided at this point, (202) 748-8002. john is next in north carolina. caller: hi. i am a democrat, and i am leaning right now, primarily because while i know global warming is an issue, and i know we need to be doing something about it, i do not believe that we need to be moving as quickly as biden has been moving, because the damage with us not being energy independent as we were a couple of years ago has caused gas prices to rise. of course, when gas prices rise,

then the transportation to get goods from point a to point b, no matter what those goods are and no matter where they are going across the country, they are going to increase. and when they increase this quickly, people just don't have time to adjust. and regarding the gentleman who called earlier about not giving a solution, the solution to that problem, which would solve, i think, most other problems, would be to go back to drilling more here in the united states, opening up our pipelines, and slowly moving toward issues resolving the global warming issue. there is just no need to move as quickly as is done. and regarding the blurb you just did on obama, you know, i did not hear him mention inflation.

i did not hear him mention anything about the border. i did not hear him mention anything regarding the main subjects that into be concerning most americans right now. he is just busy attacking other people, republicans. and i understand that they have to do that, but let's talk about some of the issues that is concerning the pocketbooks of all of us, because those are the things that really matter right now. host: that is john in north carolina. the bbc reporting, when you talked about climate change and those issues, just to let you know that the u.n. and you will climate change summit opened in egypt all on countries to move from -- to implementation, saying world leaders are due to make speeches at cop27.

some activists are staying away over concerns of egypt's rights records. abel in new jersey on our line for those who lean left. caller: good morning to you and everyone. i am independent. i voted before for a republican and i voted democrat. but i am voting democrat. because the whole world is going to inflation. if it were not for the war, all these prices and gas prices and everything would not be happening. if we lose democracy, nothing will ever happen. all these things about money and we need guns and everything -- if we use trump and all these other republicans, none of these problems will be solved. that is what obama will say. because women's rights, black

people's rights, we will not be able to vote. they are taking away our right to vote care that is what will happen if we do not vote for the democrat party. you can do all you want to say about inflation and gas prices, but as long as they take away our right to vote and everything, all of this is not going to stop -- host: ok. let's hear from ken in ohio, undecided line. caller: yes, this is ken. i'm independent, because i do not know who to vote for. i will vote for local -- i will actually stick with biden. trump, i don't trust him with what's going on. i'll never vote for trump. host: what about the senate race between representative tim ryan and j.d. vance?

caller: i'll go with ryan. he seems like he cares for the people. host: ok. you will hear next from fredericksburg, virginia, those who lean right. caller: good morning. i think that the slogans or the talking points from a lot of the so-called independents and ex-democrats -- or not ex-democrats, just democrats. it is unbeli. it is like they have a mental defici i am going to vote straight republican forever. because of the fact that the cruelty that the democrat states -- and i am talking about local, state governments -- enforced unto the child and the old people in thntry. and the democrats always

bringp medicare and social security? that has been brought up for 40 years. they have been lying, lying, lying forever -- host: so if you are an independent or swing voter and so you will vote republican forever, does that make you an independent or swing voter? caller: if there was a really bad republican, yes, i would vote for a democrat, or i would not vote. that is the way i've always voted. i mean, i did not vote against john warner -- not john. what's the other warner? host: mark warner? mark warner was the republican -- was the democrat, but john warner was the time. caller: well, john warner was not running against mark warner. mark warner won because of his last name, i think. he was a telephone mogul that drove up prices for telephones and cable forever. in this guy, -- and this guy, i didn't vote, at

that time, i did not put because at that time, i think it was ken cuccinelli. i didn't ovte that -- no, that was against caine. caine, the guy here who ran for governor, he closed all of the virginia rest stops. truckers had no place to park. the same thing happened in 1992 with boston come up in massachusetts. they closed down all of the rest stops in massachusetts, and there was toilet paper all along the highway. host: next we go to anthony in virginia on our line for those who lean left. caller: good morning. how you doing? host: good. caller: i am in virginia visiting my parents. but i am from queens, new york. you had a guy call from utica talking about how all democrats

are voting for -- that guy's a trump supporter. when covid hit, it hit hard. we had all those trucks in clean -- in queens. trump, when someone interviewed him and trump knew it was coming, a lot of new yorkers -- host: as far as the closeness of the race, you do not think, in that case, he could win? caller: no. no. there is no way he will win new york. and the republicans, i am listening to them every day. they sound like batman villains. it's a cult -- host: ok. let's go to ed in ocean city,

new jersey, on our independent -- undecided line. caller: i will remain undecided until tuesday morning, because i want new people who are physically and mentally healthily. most politicians are physically and burnt out until ep of those who voted independent involved not believe people should stay in forever. host: what races we vote in tuesday? caller: u.s. senate and congress and governor of pennsylvania. host: how will he that from new jersey? caller: well, i am just at the beach now. i want candidates who feel like i did when i got out of the each yesterday. host: let's go to new york on our lean right line. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. it is sad. i am an upstate new yorker. it tells the whole difference

between upstate and new york city. they are so washed up with the democratic kool-aid, it is not even funny. they are not feeling what we are feeling upstate inflation, the out-of-control spending, the lack of leadership from the democrats have showed in the two years they have taken over. i don't know how anyone could even consider voting democratic. you have to take our country back, otherwise, we will not have a country. so you do not consider yourself an independent or swing voter event i am a republican right down the line. host: ok. we will hold off now for that and hear from our undecided line, raul in florida on our undecided line. caller: hello. thank you for allowing me to voice my opinion.

yes, i am from florida, even though i grew up in new york, went to school in new york, went to city college in new york. we have never, unlike any of our precedents -- i don't like our president, and i don't like obama. obama gets up there and say the thing we have to worry about is democracy. he went to cuba, the most communist country in the world. i don't know who i'm going to vote for. as far as governor, i already know who i will vote for. i will not vote for somebody who changes party two or three times. host: you also have a senate race there with marco rubio and val demings. where are you there with that? caller: probably vote yes --

even though i know marco rubio fort miami. he was commissioner, so i know him from back then. but i have not decided on that yet. host: what do you think will be your deciding factor in choosing one of the other candidates? caller: i am not sure. i just have to wait and see what happens between now and tuesday. host: let's hear from justin in california on our line for those who left, independent and swing voters. caller: thank you for taking my call. just to be clear, i used to be a republican. i consider myself a conservative. but i am so disgusted by the republican party, i changed the way i vote. i don't like a lot of the biden policies, but i believe donald

trump is a traitor to the united states of america. stealing an election is something our country cannot put up with. that has to be opposed. i think we can survive a lot of the biden policies that i oppose, but you cannot survive a traitor getting back into the oval office -- host: what about on tuesday? as far as races on tuesday, are you going to vote in any specifically? caller: where i am in california , the democrat who wins the primary is going to win, so i will be voting that. i will be voting that way, voting for the left. even though i consider myself a conservative. and it is all part of simply opposing the republican and what it has become. host: that is justin in california. here is more from president trump in pennsylvania last

night. [video clip] >> just three days from now, the people of pennsylvania will elect dr. mehmet oz to the united states senate. and you're going to send the great -- you are going to send the true republicans -- we are going up and down the ballot like we have ever seen before. we will end crazy nancy pelosi's political career once and for all. [cheers] you know, they had a little rally here -- nobody showed up to their rally. look at this rally. and then they will say how many votes they got -- this is the biggest poll you could have. we was out this poll, except now it is bigger and better and

stronger than we have ever had it before. under biden, pelosi, schumer, and the radical democrat congress, your commonwealth is totally being destroyed. our country is being destroyed. biden and the far left are waging war on pennsylvania energy, guiding pennsylvania communities, and strangling pennsylvania families soaring prices like you have never seen before. inflation is costing the typical household nearly $800 every single month. congratulations. who the hell voted for these people? what are we doing? the southern border is wide open. millions of illegal aliens are pouring into our country. your commonwealth is enduring a massive and a bloody crime wave. and the far left is indoctrinating our children with twisted race and gender insanity

in our schools. other than that, they are doing a fantastic job. host: you can find more about on our website at c-span.org, our app, too, at c-span now. there is a recent piece in the new york times by two fellows -- they write about swing voters, us to --wing voters hold and it some are enomically liberal and socially consee, wle others are the reverse. many adoutm anher political era, democrats and republicans who no longer feel at home their part of -- but who have not yet switched to the other side. moderates are just as likely to hold extreme positions. the only differences these posters and -- positions do not immediately align with one party.

let's hear from kurt on pennsylvania, a reline for those who lean right. you are next up. caller: good morning. how are you? host: i am doing well. caller: i've been ok. independent. i was classified as a nonpartisan, which no one can explain to me the difference between a nonpartisan and and independent. 30 something years ago, before it was invoke -- in vogue. i vote basically, and i have chosen democrats and republicans over the years. but my values are god, family, and country. if you can fit within those values, you have my vote. host: do any of those values fit neatly with the senate -- candidates for senate currently? caller: absolutely. but i can't, in good conscience, being here in pennsylvania, vote

for oz. host: why is that? caller: oz is basically an outsider. he is a carpetbagger. he came in, he just wants the power of the senate. i understand he is backed by tron. i voted for trumpcare but i cannot, in good conscience, vote for oz. that said, i cannot, in good conscience, vote for fetterman either. so i will vote for the libertarian candidate. host: as far as the lieutenant governor, why not him? caller: the lieutenant governor? josh shapiro -- host: no, i'm sorry. lieutenant governor john fetterman. why can you not vote for him? caller: because he supports a policy of abortion. host: when it comes to libertarian candidates, is it

just that policy that aligns with yours or is it other policies that aligns with yours as well? caller: there are other ones with the libertarian candidate that aligns with me as far as small government and more freedom to the people and less government over the people. the libertarian candidate expressed the fact that he believed that come a supreme court overturned roe v. wade, that it should be left to the voters to decide, which i can more aligned with that than i can the other two. host: kurt in pennsylvania giving us a call about where he is as far as that senate race is concerned. let's hear from missouri, a viewer who leans left. this is anita. caller: hi. i would like to comment on several topics that are all tied together of why i am leaning left. the southern border is about 2000 miles. texas is about half of that,

with the rio grande all along it. both trump and abbott knew they could use eminent domain in order to get the ability to put a wall up there. but neither of them were willing to do that, because there are rich ranchers who own all the land along texas. so no wall was built there. there was only three miles from 2016 to 2020 of actual new border wall that was built. in 2016, ceo's made 71 times what average worker day. by 2020, they earned 351 times what the average worker got. according to tammy duckworth, it is now down to 250 times the average worker, but that is still an awful, awful lot of

money more than the average worker. ceo's send jobs overseas to get cheap labor. there is no surprise that governor abbott is sending buses -- host: with all that said, how does that impact your vote tuesday? caller: well, we would not need a left-leaning party if the right-leaning party was not causing a greater and greater disparity in income, including all the tax cuts for the ceo's and 1%. i remember, when i was a child, gas prices were $.19 a gallon. gas stations gave people steak knives with your purchase. my first house had a 7.75% interest rate on the locate i paid an extra .5% because i was female. back then, there were fewer guns than there were today. crime did not take out the amount of people like guns like

ar-15's do now. but again, ceo's needed to make money, so we needed to make more manufacturing of guns -- host: ok. got your point across. let's hear from ron in pennsylvania, last call on this, our lien right -- lean right li ne. caller: good morning keita enjoy your show and your work. a big fan. i lean right, but i am also splitting my vote. i will not vote for fetterman. in pennsylvania, there is so much crime here this morning, you had a mass that happened. krasner and his group do that. i am also voting schapiro because the republican candidate is too extreme. extreme candidates will not win the swing voters' approval. host: have you made these kind of decision before, where you went one way on one and one way

on the other? caller: yes, i have. actually, obama, but i voted for trump the first election in 20 16. was disappointed in some of the things that happened. i tried to make my way through these choices. host: what kind of issues that disappoint you, is a policies, the character of the candidate? where do you guys far as figuring out you get disappointed by candidates that you support? caller: i think the everyday person, including myself, looks at the things that affect them. kitchen table issues. afghanistan was a big disappointment in the national elections, national situation, the way we left afghanistan. that kind of put a fade over

democrats nationally. i do like some of the policies during the covid challenge we had, where people were supported. but what happened, i think, has created a culture of people with their hand out, and i do not like that. host: ron in philadelphia, pennsylvania, finishing our call out. we will continue on talking about issues in the days leading up to election day. joining us for our next conversation, taking a look at specific races and issues as they factor into how people who vote are two experts from inside elections, jacob rubashkin and erin covey, here to join us and talk about those issues. later on, we will discuss matters of the economy with public radio's roben farzad. we will talk about the rate hike this weekend how it impacts things like jobs and the economy. those conversations coming up on "washington journal." ♪

>> tonight on "q&a," data journalist elliot morris examines political polling going back to the 19th century. >> predicting that donald trump has a 30% chance of victory in the 2016 election, not because national polls will be wrong, but because a race is close in key states. i do wonder, if every person in the media had understood that 30% as meaning these polls, in

three elections, they will be wrong one times it if your sample size is 18 elections, you have a pretty good chance that the polls will miss enough that the losing presidential candidate could end up winning kate i wonder how the tone of the campaign would have been different and what the people what i thought happened. host: elliot morris with his book "strength in numbers" on c-span's "q&a." you can listen to "q&a" and all our podcasts on our free c-span now app. >> this fall, as part of our extensive campaign 2022 coverage, c-span showed debates. house, senate, -- were provided by civic media

organizations. these organizations are also allowing c-span to archive these debates on our video library at c-span.org. c-span thanks these organizations for sharing their debates, key elements of the democratic process. c-span, your unfiltered view of politics. ♪ >> middle and high school students, it is your time to shine. you are invited to participate in this year's c-span studentcam documentary competition. in that of the upcoming midterm election, picture yourself as a newly elected number of congress. we ask this year's competitors would -- what is your top priority and why? make a 5 to 6 minute video that shows supporting and opposing choices. be bold. among the10000 total prices,

there is a $5,000 top prize. is it our website at studentcam.org for competition rules, tips, resources, and a step-by-step side -- guide. ♪ >> c-spanshop.org is c-span's online store. shop our products. there is something for every c-span fan. every purchase helps support our nonprofit operations. shop now, or anytime, at c-span shop.org. >> there are a lot of laces to get political -- places to get political information. but only at c-span you get it straight from the source. no matter where you are from or where you stand on the issues, c-span is america's network. unfiltered, unbiased, word for

word. if it happens here or here or here or anywhere that matters. america is watching on c-span. powered by cable. >> "washington journal" continues. host: we continue our look at the midterm elections with two guests joining us from inside elections to talk about various races and the factors that will determine power in the house and senate. erin covey is a reporter and analyst for inside elections can also joined by jacob rubashkin of inside elections, also reporting -- also serving as a reporter and analyst. your recent analysis takes a look at how things stand today. how would you break that down? guest: what can we say about the midterm elections, now just two days away? we currently see republicans as the favorite to take back the house of representatives. they need just 5 seats. in the senate, we see much more of a tossup. there is the possibility for democrats to expand their

majority, the possibility of republicans to expand as well. it is clearly the republicans' to lose it on the governor side, there are quite a few dynamics at play. we are looking at a situation where we potentially have competitive races in deep blue states like new york and deep red states like oklahoma. it really goes to show the politics that play out in d.c. not always in the states -- guest: right now, we have three tossup's, nevada, georgia, and pennsylvania. we believe these three races will be determinative when we look at senate power next year. arizona and new hampshire we believe tilt democratic. we believe north carolina tilt republican paid wisconsin as well here there are quite a few races. that is why we have our strange

-- range. host: i believe three presidents in pennsylvania shows -- guest: earlier in the summer, it was clear john fetterman, that democrat, was losing in a lot of the polls, so folks were worried come on the republican side, that oz was falling behind. but it is clear he is gaining momentum. we kept it in the tossup category throughout the summer, even as it looked like federman was in a clear lead, just looking at pennsylvania and the partisan lien --- lean. host: what is a factor at play as far as why it is so close? guest: all of these races have a couple things in common. if you look at the presidential race in 2020, all of them were decided by a couple of points. nevada and pennsylvania also within a two point margin. off the bat, we are looking at

states that have shown themselves to be very evenly politically divided. beyond that, you have an interesting mix of candidates. take a race like nevada, which is probably the republicans best pickup opportunity at the moment. this is a state that can break hard for republicans. and they have one of their better candidates in the cycle, one of the only republican candidates to run statewide. pennsylvania is an open seat, which always makes things competitive. then these two candidate, each with their own strengths but also weaknesses, battling it out there. in georgia, one of the most evenly divided states in the country can we saw how contentious that 2021 runoff was. herschel walker, raphael warnock battling it out, potentially to go to a runoff there as well. that is one of the reasons why this race is sticking in tossup,

because if neither of those two men get 50% of the vote tuesday, we are back here for another month of overtime. host: in pennsylvania, did the debate matter as far as standings? guest: there is always a debate as to debates as to how much they matter to voters minds. i think the initial reaction after that debate, which was rough for federman, after his stroke in may, to battle in that tv environment -- what we have seen in the polling data since then is, while voters tend to agree always won the debate, it is not clear it has actually -- to agree oz won the debate, it is not clear -- perhaps we continue to see it tighten, but the is nothing to suggest the debate specifically was an inflection point where oz suddenly took the lead.

to the extent that the race tightened, it was tightening before, not necessarily caused by the debate performance. host: if you want to ask our guests questions, call us at (202) 748-8000 for democrats. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8002 for independents. you can also text us at (202) 748-8003. we will show you some of the ads currently playing in pennsylvania. [video clip] >> this is frank o'hara's from steel country data has been a while since we have had a senator from western pa, and those years have not been great. washington forgot us. that is why i am with john fetterman. he has been fighting here for 20 years. washington sees us as runts. john sees steel. john will cut taxes for working people and make sure no one forgets our home. >> i am john fetterman, and i

approve this message. >> pennsylvanians are in pain. i see it in your faces, your eyes. inflation is hurting everyone. gas prices, time and savings diminished. john fetterman would raise everyone's taxes, making inflation that much worse. we need more balance and less extremism in washington. i am not a politician. i am a heart surgeon. more importantly, a husband and a dad. i am running to improve people's lives. it is what doctors do. host: probably no surprise to you, the economy and issues like that playing top in pennsylvania and races like that. guest: from the beginning, we knew the economy would be a key issue in the midterms care that was clear up until this summer, when the dobbs decision shook things up. i think these two ads show the

economy has clearly won at -- out at the end of the day. voters believe republicans are best equipped to deal with the economic issues they are facing. you can see someone like federman is going on offense on the economy, as dr. oz accuses him of raising taxes and doing things that would increase inflation and the cost-of-living problems that have plagued this country for the last two years. you are seeing fetterman has to focus on that. host: what is the best way to understand that the senate races close by the governor -- governors race is a different story. guest: in statewide races like senate and governor races, it can be a bigger factor, particularly in governors races. a lot of times, these are little more divorced from their national outcome, and you have two states that elect red governors and red states that elect democratic governors, and that is not too uncommon.

in a swing state like pennsylvania, make sense that someone like the attorney general, josh shapiro, would leading at this point. the republican candidate was not someone who they wanted -- it left all the candidates in a weak spot. doug mastriano was part of the january 6 insurrection, was involved in sending buses of trump supporters. most republicans have pretty much given up on that race. you do not see republicans actively spending there, which is a sign they do not believe mastriano is able to win. host: our first call comes from pennsylvania, independent line. this is bill. go ahead. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i have three points to make. one is about inflation. i truly believe there is a lot

of collusion and price gouging going on. my heating oil supplier, the lady who owns the company, said the refiners are holding up production of heating oil to keep prices up. that is one thing. inflation is collusion and gouging. my second point has to do with dr. oz. he tries to portray himself as a unifier, more of a middle-of-the-road candidate. but his ads not accurately portray who the real extremists are in this country, namely trump and his allies. so i think he is trying to pull the wool over our eyes big time. but the main reason i will be voting for fetterman -- well, schapiro is a no-brainer. but i will vote fetterman because i believe, in the end, when you get to the senate, he will be more of a pain in the butt to schumer, whereas oz, if

he gets there, would be more of a kiss the butt for mcconnell. host: anything from that? guest: the caller hit a number of interesting points. the question of dr. oz and where he is in his political beliefs and how he is portraying himself is one that has persisted from the beginning of the race, or when dr. oz got in. this pennsylvania race was quite unsettled until really early this year when dr. oz and dave mccormick, the hedge fund ceo, faced -- entered the republican primary. oz faced a lot of questions over whether he was a true conservative, and he had to work hard to win over conservative voters. he only won that primary by a couple hundred votes per there's already deep skepticism about where he is coming from, what his true beliefs are.

it is an interesting question as to how he has been portraying himself in the general election versus how he had to portray himself to win the primary fear that may come back to bite him in a couple days. the thing about fetterman is, like the caller said, he is not known to be a friend of the democratic establishment either. he really made his name running in 2016 as an insurgent candidate. his whole brand is about bucking authority. that is a central part of his appeal to voters, especially at a time when voters are clearly dissatisfied with what is going on in d.c. to have a guy like fetterman, who himself has positioned himself in opposition to the democratic powers here can be helpful in a year when democrats are running into headwinds. host: anything to add? guest: no, jacob hit the nail on the head. to bill's point on price gouging, you have seen that in

democratic ads as they try to respond to the dam -- economic situation. it is clear when democrats control washington, they have to talk about this issue in an offensive way, and that has been difficult for a lot of them. some have to flutter to the price gouging point as well. host: dan in concord, new hampshire how are you? caller: fine, how are you? host: fine. go ahead. caller: i am 63 years old. i've been a republican since 1980. voted for ronald reagan. i've never seen a democratic party go so far over the line. i really do not know how anyone right now could vote for that party whatsoever. the damage they have done the last two years is incredible. host: ok. dan in new hampshire. we have to talk about that

states because it is an interesting one. guest: this is an interesting senate race. folks in the cycle earlier thought it would be more competitive, because republicans wanted the governor to run for senate. republicans really struggle to consolidate around a nominee during the primary care because new hampshire also has such a late primary, it only happened mid-september, that gave the democratic incumbent, maggie hassan, and advantage and the ability to fund raise and build up her warchest ahead of this race. new hampshire is also a little more blue than some of these swing states we talk about, like georgia, wisconsin. it was always going to be a little bit harder for a republican to flip. but polls have shown that this has been tightening. republicans nominated don bolduc, a retired general. he is also ready far to the right, but a lot of republicans

believe that this could potentially be a pickup opportunity, and this may be a lot closer than some democrats were expecting. host: how close? guest: polls have short anywhere to a tide race to a lead for senator hassan of about 10 points. i think it is somewhere in the middle, a load to mid single-digit lead peer on the governor's, governor chris sununu is poised to win reelection by a significant margin. still double digits, so that is a boost to all republicans running in the state. the reality is this is a state that has close elections. it is not, however, a majority maker. there is a difference between a majority maker in the senate and icing on the cake. the majority maker's are those three seeds in the tossup category, pennsylvania, nevada. whichever party wins two of three will win the majority, and weber wins these democratic states -- tilt republican --

and whoever wins these tilt states -- those are secondary races at the end of the day. whoever wins this tossup category will be the one walking into d.c. with control next year. host: how would you describe the struggle senator cortez -- guest: this is a race a lot of people were not paying attention to because they consider nevada is a democratic state. it is not. it is a purple state. senator cortez masto is in her first term. she is not super well known in the state. the thing about nevada, there is such a high turnover rate, so many of the voters there now were not there in 2016 when she won her last election. and she only won with about 37%

of the vote. so not starting off in a particularly strong position. she is facing adam laxalt, who is one of the republicans' better candidates this cycle. he has won a statewide election before. this is an incredibly close race. nevada's economy has been particularly hard-hit by the covid-19 town direct -- pandemic, the slow recovery, especially on a state so dependent on tourism. it is really a perfect storm for republicans to try and come in and flip some of these seats. they are competitive in three of the four house districts, the fourth one they already have. nevada looks primed for republican expansion. but it is still quite close at all levels of the ballot. host: she has hispanic and latina roots. where is she with that group?

guest: in 2020, republicans made a lot of gains with latino voters, but it was not all across the map equally. it was definitely specific to a lot of regions. obviously, it is important to remember we are having these conversations that latino voters are not monolithic. a lot of times, folks like to think of them as either based democratic voters or, maybe now, more likely to vote republican. but they are really more independent and a lot of these parts of the country. in nevada, we have seen cortez masto has been pulling decently well with them. but nevada is a hard state to pull and has undercounted democratic performance in the past. hard to tell whether -- what it will play out. republicans have a decent chance of winning all three of those, and they control the fourth, a safe republican seat, so they

could have a clean sweep of the four nevada house races. these three other districts are districts biden would have won by a couple points in 2020 p these are right in the middle of the republicans map in the house this year. host: new jersey, republican line. go ahead. caller: i am the opposite of the last caller. i am still in high school. i think the republican party is really old and democrats are the future. i think democrats should -- republicans are not progressive at all. i think -- i am in new jersey. all of our ads are about oz and john fetterman and stuff. fetterman, the debate was really

bad that he had. i think he had a stroke before -- it was really bad. i still think he is -- he's pretty radical, but -- other than that, i think democrats should be sweeping for the next 10 years. the republicans are way too last century. host: quentin in new jersey. anything there? guest: that is always the question. will younger voters turn out? we did see in 2020 they turned out in record numbers. but polls have shown in this cycle that probably will not be the case. particularly earlier in the summer when biden's approval numbers were really low.

at that point, we really saw a lot of democrat base voters, including younger voters, were dissatisfied with the way president biden was handling things. i think some of his actions on things like student loan forgiveness could have impacted rings, but it is still up in the air whether that will actually make these voters turn out. host: as far as messaging, the caller said democrats should be doing better in this process. as far as messaging they have delivered to potential voters, have they done a good job of that? guest: we are in a midterm election. the historical trend suggests the party in control has a bad return. you are hard-pressed to find instances in which the president's party gained seats in either the senate or the house. only 7 of the last 25 midterm elections, the president's party did not lose seats in the senate. 23 of the last house midterms,

the president's party law seats. heading into this election, we all somewhat new this was in the cards are the question of whether democrats have been successful messaging to the voters they need is a little unanswerable until we get to wednesday morning or perhaps a week from wednesday or wherever we have full results, because again, there is plenty of indicator to suggest republicans are poised for a really good year. the difference will be in the question of whether it is a great year for republicans or if it is a mediocre year but still good enough for them to take back the majority. if we wake up wednesday morning and republicans have won seven house seats and lost a senate seat, that is a perfectly reasonable outcome, and it would mean that republicans took back the majority in the house, but it would also be quite a disappointing result for a party that is expecting to do much better. i think democrats are very, very

good at getting very, very nervous. it has been interesting to see the same exact thing happen in 2022 as happened in 2020, as happened in 2018. final weeks of the race, you start seeing all the stories about democrats worried they are not speaking to the right voters, they will not turn out their base. maybe that is true, maybe that is not, by that kind of attitude seems to be independent of actual results at the end of the day. that is something that is always going to happen in these contests. we will see when we get the results. but at the moment, the fact that we are even talking about democrats potentially expanding their majority in the senate and limiting republicans to a single seat or low double-digit seat gain in the house suggests they have done something at least to limit the damage from the historical perspective. host: david is in florida, republican line. caller: good morning. i was watching their previous segment on the independents, and

those people are mixed up your they should not even be voting. that is not why i called. i have a quick comment and then a question. i watched c-span a little bit. i worked, so i do not normally watch it but the weekend. but watching it yesterday, the visceral hate for donald trump is unbelievable. most people need to go outside and take a hit of fresh air or something. there is a quote out there that hate destroys the vessel that contains it, and they may want to take that into consideration. my question is -- in this country is literally saturated in left-wing propaganda, from the mainstream media to the schools to the entertainment industry, sports and tech. do you think there is any long-term future in the republican party if this trend continues? host: let me take apart what he had a stan smart is the election is concerned. this year, is this still a

referendum on former president trump? guest: it is definitely a referendum on free -- it is definitely a referendum on president biden. the question is how much of a referendum it could be on former president trump? i think not. a couple months ago, the supreme court decision on dobbs made this less of a referendum on biden and more of a choice i think it has reverted to being a referendum on president biden. he had a huge role in turning out republicans. a lot of these competitive states like iowa the other weekend. at this point, you are not seen trump in any of these campaign ads. yours inc. president died in. on the democratic side, you will see people like kevin mccarthy, or members like marjorie taylor greene, but you are not seeing trump at all.

host: is january 6 still a part of the cycle? guest: january is playing out in the minds of voters. the party and power struggles to turn out there base and struggle to motivate their voters. a disaster for democrats up and down the ballot because voting was so low. not just independent voters or lower propensity voters, but those you would normally expect to support democrats were nowhere to be found. january 6 is still playing out in voters' minds. those four years were an incredible watershed moment for organizing. people were dragged into politics anyway that they were not previously.

to keep some of that fire alive, i think january 6 is incredibly help to democrat on a base motivation level. positioning this as important is a good way to keep your voters engaged. as to whether it is bringing any swing voters, i think there is less evidence to suggest that, but in order to win, you have to do both. you have to turn on your base and win them over. host: to be guests joining us for this conversation. you can ask them questions for the remaining half hour. >> inside elections is a nonpartisan organization that decides how competitive we believe that we are and we also do our own reporting and analysis.

we are looking at different factors. we are also looking at what president biden's current numbers look like. midterms are typically a referendum on the party's power. we are also looking at the polls . we are talking to the candidates themselves and the campaign. we're are just putting that together to use the data and the factors to make a decision about how competitive the races are. host: we will have you talk about it a little bit. >> every year, they are grown in georgia. that is nuts. that is half of america's peanuts.

we needed somebody to fight back. >> eliminating the regulations and standing up for farmers. i approve this message because i will do anything, if it means helping georgia. >> now that is really not. >> under democrats control, violence. police targeted and chaos at the border. a weaker america and a failing president. >> two years ago, we were strong and respected around the world. then joe biden came along. it is time to take our country back and start thinking about greatness again. i humbly ask for your vote on tuesday. host: what is the best way to understand what is currently going on in the senate race in georgia? guest: i think the most likely

outcome for the georgia senate races that it will probably go into a runoff. with a third-party candidate on the ballot, it is unlikely that they will be able to hit the percent. the senate race went to a runoff. this year, the runoff is scheduled for early december. we will know the results a little sooner, but there is a decent chance that control of the senate could come down to georgia. if it goes to a runoff, we may not even know into the beginning of december. guest: we saw the senator talking about his ties. he is a democrat running in georgia.

i think those ads were interesting because they demonstrated the appeal that they are trying to make. he is focused on a very georgia specific issue. he is shown that he is working on it with republicans, one of the most conservative republican in the senate. looking at the herschel walker ad, talking a lot about biden and inflation, and national concerns. decently well-liked. voters really do not like democrat. the goal for walker is to tie to

joe biden every step that he can. we saw this over and over again. he's not doing better because joe biden has a 40% approval meeting -- meeting in this -- in the state of georgia. republicans are doing everything they can to tie them together. we always knew this would be incredibly close, even with all the stories about walker. they continue to play a prevalent role in the news. these are candidates that are very close to each other. both of them have low ceilings in terms of how much they can get. host: this is on our mind for democrats.

caller: i'm listening to the conversation you have and i have gotten off my track. this is definitely a referendum on president biden. what i believe is that he has done a good job. if people could open their eyes and see the things that he is trying to get done -- but people do not do that. they think more on what president trump did. he divided our country. by dividing our country, made it a lot harder for joe biden to get things done. he has tried to get the gas prices down. i think the grocery prices, the gas prices are all set by a market that is going crazy right

now. people do have money to spend. the money situation is the same for the whole world. we are all in a downfall. prices are ridiculous and makes it hard for a regular citizen to get by. guest: they are hitting a couple of really good points. they feel frustrated with the lack of intention of things that have happened. but i think it speaks to the limits of what the administration has been able to do. it speaks to the prominence of a

certain set of issues like inflation that overrides a lot of the concerns and accomplishments that the biden administration has put on the table. inflation in prices is something that voters are confronted with every day. they are constantly being hit over the head with this same thing. it is not enough to win over voters by saying, here is this bill that i passed. so it does underscore how difficult it has been the democrats to focus on their accomplishment because there is an encompassing issue right in front of them. democrats want to talk about the relief packages.

a lot of these things happened in early 2021. they are no longer talking about it because it is on the backseat for inflation. it is important that they have those accomplishments. people live for democrats. he did not want to be in a position where they are not happy. why do i show up to vote? i do not like what is going on either. i will not take time out of my day to take off work, go to my polling place and wait in line. it is important that you have your base, but you also have to win over the voters. host: how are you watching the governor's race play out? guest: we recently moved it,

which is an indication of how competitive it has gotten in the last couple of months. we do believe that it will probably be closer than what we expected a couple months ago. we have seen it play out on the congressional district level as well, where the governor is not pulling well and a lot of these congressional races. some of the democrat are worried that she may be driving them down. that race will be a lot closer than expected. those polls have shown that she will win by mid to single digits. there have been a lot tighter polls way she is only up. we do believe that it is more competitive than a couple weeks ago.

caller: good morning. i meant to call on the independent-minded we are all a part of how. in 1972 -- i was 19 years old. in any case, i had an epiphany. i feel lucky. it is difficult not to hate dick cheney, but i have managed not to hate him because of his daughter, liz cheney. i'm grateful that i did not fall into that trap. donald trump would make an absolutely fantastic reality tv president.

he has the skills for that iq could not believe, but i could not vote for him for president. i know how to count cards. i played blackjack. i got too much money from his casinos playing blackjack. when you are president of the last, the people around you do not work for you, they work for the taxpayers. they are meant to accommodate you. host: thank you. we will take the fact that he is from ohio. guest: this has been an interesting senate race. it is a lot more competitive. pulling a couple points behind, but that is a lot closer. trump won ohio in 2020.

this should not be one that republicans or democrats are competing seriously for. but we see that tim ryan has been able to make this a closer race. this is where the nominee currently is represented. it will be one to watch. host: what are we looking at? guest: in the senate, we have covered the talks. the state of oregon, the governor's mansion the last 40 years -- 40 years, but they are in danger of losing it this year. this is one of the closest gubernatorial races in the country that speaks to some of

the issues in urban areas. we have seen that they have to distance themselves. we have some interesting dynamics going on. it is fascinating. we have 20 races in our category. republicans favored 216 c. there is a universe where democrats run the table. they will end up with 219 seat, one more than they need for the majority. even though we think that republicans are poised to pick up seats and have a really good night in the house, there is

still a slim possibility. the table is still there for democrats. we are not in a position where we see republicans favored. these tossup races in the house will be incredibly important. history would suggest that they are all going to break one way or the other. quite a few to watch their. i think a lot of people are treating this as a foregone conclusion. where they win races just as important. host: we have seen the polls. how do you trust polls in this process? guest: in 2020 they undercounted

republican voters. we saw that with how large the margins were, but we also saw that they ended up picking up a lot of seat that most were not expecting that they would win. they do account for those errors and try to adjust for them. we are looking at their methodology and track, whether they are partisan or nonpartisan i think it is important to look at the larger trend and see if they fit within or if they are outlier. host: from pennsylvania on the independent line. caller: good morning. now, let's get to the issue here. i have a couple points to make.

with the democrat party and publican party -- when bush was in the white house, i wanted to address this. they do nothing. they did not test the reserve. let's move on to afghanistan. we have 2000 taliban. we trained 300,000 afghans and gave them weapon. you want us to stay there and fight? 300,000 -- [indiscernible]

let's talk about inflation. [indiscernible] host: i think the larger topic at hand is -- guest: withdrawal from afghanistan was an interesting point. pre-afghanistan joe biden, his approval rating was solid, bid to low 50's -- mid to high 50's. it was an inflection point. in particular, the images that we saw this first couple of days . that seems to be where he lost the confidence of a lot of the

country. even though the data suggests that it was time. they are more than happy to hold one particular position. when that comes to fruition, they take a look at the outcome and say, i disagree with that. it is a reason to be more circumspect and technical about assigning political impact to what we see in the pulling numbers. just because people say they want one thing does not mean that they will be happy when it happened. the afghanistan moment was one that was major at the time. we saw in that one had, footage of the kabul airport. this has stuck in the minds of

voters, especially republicans, over the last year. we tell a story, that will be an important milestone as to when the country began to be more skeptical of the administration. host: this is from sydney. caller: one of the things that i notice, you did not mention with afghanistan that it was a suicide bomber. when that kind of stuff happened , it has nothing to do with the president. they have been really addressing problems that have been happening. from the pandemic to inflation that is built off of that.

the cartels are part of that. i hear the negative stuff about this administration, but the reality is that making those assertion are the same ones that were in office before, even when obama was in there. mitch mcconnell said our job is to make sure that he is a one term president. host: what would you like to address with our guests specifically. caller: that they are reporting how they -- the polls are going but nothing in terms of how they got there. you have the whole republican party unified to basically

destroy the image of the present demonstration, the presidency, so that they could then come in and do what they are doing now. host: duck-soo. -- got you. guest: it was definitely an inflection point, but around the same time, we started to see cost rising and supply chain issues ratcheting up. the approval ratings continued, and initially earlier in the cycle, a lot of people saw him as a difficult figure to criticize. they were more likely to criticize people like nancy pelosi. approval ratings really static going down among independent voters.

they were able to use biotin effectively in a way that would hurt their chances. it is clear that a lot of these and would not be doing that if biden was more popular. host: this is out of arizona. >> i am the mayor of mason and a republican. the last few years have been tough and our community needed help. we may be from different political parties, but that is not matter. we are all on team arizona. that is who mark is. mark does not look for ways to blame republicans. he looks for a way forward. >> two years ago, our border was

secure and our economy work. we have high prices and violent crime. why? because kelly votes for the agenda every time. we are sick of seeing things going the wrong direction. send me to the u.s. senate and i will put arizona families first. host: what is most interesting about the space to watch? guest: we see this race roughly the same way we see the new hampshire race. a decent position going into the election. approval ratings remain fairly high and remain popular among voters.

when he won the special election, he campaigned and had the kind of background that appeals to a pretty wide spot voters. his republican opponent has been doing a lot better in the polls he lies. he emerged from a contentious primary and it took well -- it took time to pull well. this was a pretty close race and could be dividing. guest: it looked a lot like georgia. senator mike kelly and that incumbent focusing on local issues, one of the more conservative cities saying he was bipartisan.

we look at blake masters and he is talking about joe biden and the economy. we can really see the delineation here. republicans are doing everything that they can to nationalize and pull and add, even a republican house candidate. chances are they will be getting the same issues, no matter where they are. democrats, you are not going to see the mayor of arizona -- you better believe he will be front and center in everything that mike kelly is doing. these parties are trying to win their races, one of them trying to keep it local and the other national.

host: what do you watch for and what you think the interesting or something that the viewers should watch out for? guest: we are in bermuda triangle, watching at the moment. all the big decisions have already been made. everyone is flying a little bit blind. i tend to be a little more skeptical of numbers. the reality is what i will be looking for. there are a bunch of different -- right across the river in virginia, there is a trio of districts with a solid

barometer. second district, a maze that we can see. we think they are a slight underdog. if democrats win the race, it would be a better race. we are looking at better territory for them. if republicans are winning that seat, we are looking at a 30 to 40 seat gain. depending on who wins the trio and how they break down, that will be a key indicator early on. guest: along with those races, i would note that the race we mentioned earlier only won by a

couple of points. we have seen that this is still a pretty close race. it will be interesting to see what it will be. republicans are doing disproportionately well in blue states. and pulling a lot better, which is an interesting trend to watch. in michigan, she is doing fairly well. she might be able to win. you see other congress people running by 11 points. a tighter race first some. it will be interesting to see

how this breaks down. host: thank you for your time. guest: thank you for having us. host: coming up, we will speak about the decision from the federal reserve and what it might do for the economy overall. we will take your calls for a set of open forum. we will take those calls way washington journal continue. ♪ >> this fall, as part of our

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if it happens here, here or anywhere that matters, is watching on c's and. --on c-span. host: you can participate on the lines or you can send us a text. we will show you some of the top seven or election cycle, starting with george. his group donated 10.5 million to the majority. also gave one million to j street action and planned parenthood super pac. the affiliation with republicans. one of the nations privately owned companies. they merged as a major force

republican. one of the most powerful conservative super pac. the ceo of one of the wealthiest mega donors. it makes him the top individual donor. our next guest -- republican line, you're up first. caller: i am a republican and i hooted for trump and 2016. i did not vote for him in 2020. to me, he was a hitler's.

you do exactly what i say or you cut -- he could see from his policy. biden, i think is getting -- all of this was brought on him and it had nothing to do with inflation. host: all right. you will have to stop listening to the television, viewers. make sure that you you were television -- mute your televion. caller: i do not know who i will vote for. like neither party think about the middle class we are not getting anything for our 40k). that is opping. can someone tell me something about raising the interest rates? it is just killing the

middle-class, but you still have money to send to ukraine. can somebody expla to me what that is all about? why are we hurting in america but we are so free with their money to send to other countries? thank you. host: our next guest will join us a few minutes from now to talk about rising interest rate and how it impacts people at home. anna is next. >> thank you. i grew up in inflation. i have four children who were in college. in texas, i do not know about anybody else, but i'm talking about texas. people are buying cars and buying homes.

and to make sure. inflation is not a big deal. if a company increases salary, they will also increase prices. the border reactive i am 74 years old and my grandparents -- that stupid wall that we talk about has been there for ages and they have been building on it. when they talk about oil and an, i drove to see granddaughter. guess who is working on those highways. those are people that come from the border and they bring them here, so we lie about it.

they basically -- they are trying to correct that. host: republican line. caller: good morning. i have watched c-span for a long time. i am very impressed with the programming. i would like to point out that last name, you covered live the democrat rally with the former president, the candidate for governor and candidate for senate. there was also a republican rally.

not a word. i'm just calling out nonpartisan stands from this and, if there is any sort of explanation. host: we heard that this morning. caller: on c-span or one of the other channels? host: it might have been on one of the other channels, but we aired it. caller: well then i apologize. i saw it as broadcasting live. and then the rebroadcast of the democrat. host: i understand that, but there are a lot of other venues break and watch these events. we did take in that event and we did show it, so you can view it

on the website, if you missed it. joe on the independent line. caller: thank you. i love the whole ecosystem of c-span. i consider myself to be independent. i voted for my first republican couple days ago in indianapolis. she will probably not win, but i like her stand. she does not want to give all her money for what we might need ourselves. we did not aid the rebels in

syria, so i'm not sure if that is because they are more white and christian or white. although vocal nonsense that they have been touting -- i know it is stereotypical to say that, but it is kind of true as well. all the covid hysteria and the lockdowns, the democrats behind that. host: all right. democrats lying. caller: they keep talking about president biden and the soldiers that died in afghanistan. they never bring up reagan.

host: from south carolina, republican line. caller: first off, i would like to thank c-span. this is one of the only places we can hear an honest opinion. i wish that we could have more conversation about the quality of candidate. we are in the mess that we are in because we as voters only have a choice between two bad candidates. if you go back and look at obama, hillary clinton, trump -- it does not matter which one. they are either incapacitated or unqualified. phentermine has no business running for office. it is not going to make much difference for the midterms, but the next general election --

thank you so much. host: donald trump speaking in florida today for marco rubio. you can live. you can also follow along on c-span now or c-span.org. you can watch that even live. we will hear from barbara. barbara is from new york city. independent line. caller: i hope voters both consider writing in the name donald j. trump governor, as i did. we remember the political party.

because. i hope the party forced chemical injections on people. no job, no job, resulting in thousands of deaths from myocarditis and blood clots. i saw a report that said it was caused by a true fibrillation, but i would like to know if he was vaccinated and how long after he was exited he had history. i want to know which political party put muzzles on our children and instructed the education of our oldest children. i will be watching to see if they are led to the gate of biden once again. host: you are next.

caller: i just wanted to say that i did. when i voted, it was for the future of our country. with all the election deniers, i think that if the people who believe that way get into office, i think there could be a constitutional process at some point. i am saying because i think there is a affability that could be -- with everything going on today with everybody being shot and people harass the election prove, i think it is going in the completely wrong direction. if there were more balance or

, but it seems like everything is so radicalized. the future of our country is in the balance with this election. host: washington post takes a look at how they have treated those on their platform. facebook and twitter have pledged to attack questionable and this untrue cycle, many candidates have posted claims, but they have done nothing to refute them. that is in contrast to the 2020 election cycle. the post from donald trump that pointed leaders to the electoral process alerted readers that information was misleading.

the first of january 2020, according to a study -- they question the validity of the voting process. next, illinois on the republican line. caller: it is great to talk to you in the morning. the biggest thing i see is a lack of common sense. looking at president trump, the documents that he took out of office, it made it sound like we have politicians it did you see -- in d.c. walking around with this information. they talk about the last person that we got in with the conflict of interest because her family

was in wail and i look at the things that they vote on like term limits. i also think that when it comes to their raises and their health care, we as american people should decide if that is the case and you look at right now, insider-trading information, looking at do something about that, nothing has been done yet. i know they brought it into legislative, but i think back to it. host: independent line. caller: i want to ask you, what is the name of that inflation act that they passed? it is also comical. this program on msnbc mentioned

other republicans -- it is sad that they have fought over this situation, but she mentioned that the republicans are guilty, yet the democrats passed a bill about the inflation act. i thought that was hilarious. there was a call earlier from florida. i wanted to call in about that as well. do not interrupt me about this, but c-span is biased because they have been showing obama and biden, all the rallies, endorsing their candidates from all leaks come alive. if you have covered from one time. because i have been looking for.

host: end we will show him today live. although showing today at 5:00 trump has had plenty of rallies, which our network has aired and you can find because we still think he is part of the electoral process. as far as how that shakes out, you can go to the website. that is at c-span.org. the host of disclosure talking about inflation rates and how they may be impacted by the federal reserve. we will have that discussion when washington journal continues. ♪ >> election day. starting at 8:00 p.m. eastern, c-span's live coverage to see

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unfiltered, unbiased, word for word. if it happens here, here, or anywhere that matters, america is watching on c-span. powered by cable. >> c-spanshop.org and's online story. browse through our elitist collection of apparel, books, or and accessories. there is something for every c-span fan. every purchase helps support our organization. >> c-span now is a free mobile app featuring your unfiltered view of what is happening in washington, live and on-demand. keep up with for proceedings and hearing the congress has even, campaign and world politics, all at your fingertips.

you can find scheduling information for the c-span radio network, plus a variety of compelling podcasts. it is available on the apple store and google play. download it now. your front row seat washington, anytime, anywhere. >> washington journal continues. host: the host of liquidity is full disclosure joining us from richmond, virginia. guest: angie for having me on. -- thank you for having me on. host: explain the show. guest: it is about business and the business of culture. we tried to find business type story where you would not typically expect to find them. host: how would you explain the current policy?

guest: trying to play catch-up. it set off this conflagration of uncontrollable prices. it is brutally difficult to get it back into the jar. you've seen jerome powell saying that this is transitory pressure. but it is more than that. they have been pushing through several rate hikes. those are supposed to be extraordinary. typically, policy happened in quarter-point increments. we do not know what terminal rates will be. the entire market, bond market, stock market, housing market is in a state of collective consternation right now. host: as far as the chair is,

how much further can he go? guest: you want to tap down consumer demand. i call it -- a lot of people wanting to travel and. they are still saving left over from the pandemic. ppp turned out with pretty inflationary. dry powder of caches out there. the fed, by increasing interest rates once to make it difficult for you to seek out capital spending or big purchases. it is problematic in that it publishes the poor and, probably more than it does the wealthy people. host: the cure is almost as hard

or worse than the actual disease? guest: yes. you have to throw the economy into a deep recession to cure it of the scourge of inflation. you have that call earlier talking about sending her children to college. think about the troops from that era. we have not been talking about this more than to be a decades. they took inflation for granted, that it was an overrated looking in. when it weird it's hennigan, it was like to get to know me. it is hitting us at the grocery store. obviously, the housing market right now, where mortgages are north of 7% after seeing last year, some people had to present mortgage. these are shocking increases.

host: you can call the lines. you can text us at (202) 748-8003. we will play you a little bit of what jerome powell had to say and then we will have your comments on that. >> our message is clear, that we think have a ways to go. we have to get to that level of interest rate that we think is restrictive. putting that in a statement is an important step. let's put that as the important one going forward. the level of rates that we estimated in september may suggest that it will be hired. that has been the pattern.

if we made forecast today, the s been one after another they go up and that will end where it ends, but there's no sense that inflation is coming down. if you look, i have a table of the last 12 months of twelve-month readings and there's really no pattern. we were where we were a year ago. i would also say it's premature to discuss pausing and it's not something we are thinking about that's really not a conversation to be had. we have a ways to go. host: a ways to go. guest: if you want to take out the high-minded economic jargon, bloodletting is ahead. try to bleed out some of the economy. i've thrown so many metaphors at it i've completely forgotten to

keep track of them. if anything more fine tune then throwing the economy into a recession. that is the $15 trillion question right now. i think everybody is thinking about it. what would happen if you had a deep recession and suddenly unemployment shot up again. people would gladly take jobs at muted wages and come back to work and you wouldn't have people hiking wages but a lower market clearing price for wages paid that would be just inflationary. your knocking to see prices shoot back down again, they tend to be sticky upwards but you will see an increase in promotions. we see the return of the five dollar foot long at subway. i don't know how this plays out. i just know history tells us that oftentimes you have to throw an economy into a nosedive to rid it of inflation. host: a viewer on twitter says what, if any alternatives exist

the fed raising interest rates when it comes to curbing inflation? guest: i was thinking about this. it's not like you can get the white house or congress increasing taxes. it's really the fed pushing everyone out of the way right now and saying this is what we are doing. these are the biden white house try to shake its fist up against oil companies a week or two ago about oil profiteering. there are things on the margin that can help may be numb prices for the time being but nothing is as powerful as the federal reserve's cudgel. host: let's hear from viewers. robert and maryland. silver spring, democrats line. caller: can you hear me? host: yes, go ahead. caller: i wanted to say in my opinion regarding inflation in the economy, the problem is corporate greed.

conservative economics would be very happy with more tax cuts for the rich and lower wages. that just doesn't work. i'll be voting democrat for the economy, for workers rights. it could get -- they could get tougher on crime. but in terms of the economy i trust the democrats because the economy is only as strong as its weakest members and republicans have abandoned low-wage workers, immigrants, the poor, senior citizens. i trust democrats on the economy. guest: i do suspect corporate avarice is an issue here. if you're publicly traded and you see inflation out there you want to push through price increases that the economy hasn't let you pull off for the longest time so maybe you look at headline inflation is giving you cloud cover if you're a procter & gamble orate food a

restaurant company to push through price increases. i always cite chipotle because it's an example many are familiar with. you go in there you not as price-sensitive as you might be. you does knows the price of the readers have gone up so much in the 20 years since you've known the brand or guacamole used to be a dollar, now it's at 250 right now. chipotle has a problem with hiring and keeping workers it's having a problem with maintaining its margins with food prices going up and so much variability. so pushing through whatever he can with price hikes. you're seeing that across the board. visiting us every time we go to the grocery store. the orange juice i'll, the dairy aisle, all manner of people left and right can't believe the prices have gone up. >> this is william in florida. caller: i wanted to call, the

young lady and the gentleman was saying something about the debate, but actually i did see the republican debate but it was at 3:00 in the morning. so that's a big difference than playing the democrat debates in prime time. i also wanted to add this gentleman is on their discussing these prices that are inflated, we are petroleum based economy. so that all reflects the prices. these companies can just eat that. biden says he got in and shut off all the fuel and made it very difficult, that's what it takes to supply this nation is petroleum. there was something else i wanted to say. when they talk about the threat to democracy, that's already been taken place. when they label a parent that

goes in to speak up for a kid is -- , when they raid an ex-president's home with the fbi, there's already a threat to democracy. host: the jobs report came out this week 260 1000 jobs added. unemployment of 3.7%. what does it suggest to you about the economy in particular and all these rate hikes we've been talking about? guest: the economy is resilient. it keeps creating those jobs. if you put that on 2019 or 2018 you would be thrilled. the problem is we are not wanting for job creation. 3.7% pre-much close to what they call the natural rate of unemployment. they're worried about inflation and the fed mandate is full employment versus price stability which we don't have. so i think it would gladly trade

higher unemployment, lower job creation for prices to come down from this range. that's a yawning gap. that's where you get into the perverse nature of financial markets and late stage economic cycle is the routing for bad news. you see the dow and others rally if the job number comes in at lower than expected. anything that gives you evidence , could you imagine one day taking rates down again. host: from diane in ohio, let's hear from her. she calls us, good morning. go ahead. caller: good morning. i was listening to the chipotle blurb that you did. i think all companies will push prices to see how high they can do it and we still tolerate it and that's where they will stay.

i wanted to know and wanted to ask, i agree with robert from maryland as far as corporate profits. i wonder why we the taxpayers are bearing the burden of interest rate hikes and the impending doom of the recession, but why does congress only rely on the fed when congress can put pressure on corporations to share with us little guys prayed maybe do the look -- maybe do the american thing, giving us a break. i know it makes sense, therefore we won't do it. thank you. guest: there is this idea of collective punishment and collective beneficiaries. if you took ppp money or fiscal stimulus during the worst of the slowdown in the pandemic you are a beneficiary. the beneficiaries were not all equal. people who had money were able to afford homes at capital

assets, stocks and depreciating and the frustrating thing is you point out on the way down is everybody being asked to subsidize the inflation and interest rate hikes that are the results of i think a lot of this profit we see an freespending and easy money. it's difficult for congress to pass something. if you want to have a windfall corporate tax or anything that requires unanimity in congress, the senate and the white house which you probably won't have after a few days from results on tuesday night, it results in unintended consequences if you punish corporations. i'm not being an apologist. but they'll produce less or they'll seek regulatory arbitrage or do something that's less pressured or penalized congressional fiat and that's just a problem time and again. corporations have powerful lobbies, a tremendous mode of money and influence and cloud

and the consumer is a this advantage. host: a viewer asked if inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods and services federal reserve policy which targets interest rates, they can target interest rates and supply the same time anymore the one can shoot two birds with one arrow. >> you can hike rates and make them attractive, even 10 years which is not a short-term, above 4% are talking 4% or 5% there are people who will gladly take their pandemic winnings and park it at a 5% risk free rate. we saw a lot of press about the government with saving bonds that were yielding more before the end of october expiration even with the new reset rate. of course you're limited to $10,000 but clearly is demonstrated by the crashing website, there's a lot of people who would like to park their money in a risk-free asset at 6%

or more. that was a test the federal reserve was facing record inflation had to take rates up to the mid teens to choke off housing and capital formation and to get people to park their money and not invested and spend it. that's really scary when you look, he doesn't know what the terminal rate is. he doesn't want to make a prediction as to when we might be able to stop. host: the federal reserve's actions on one side and president biden's effort to increase employment and things like that on the other, how do they work? guest: you don't want to be a fed chair, he was appointed by trump but you are still an independent body and is supported by biden and they have more of a cordial relationship ben powell had with trump. the former fed chair is a very close adviser right now, janet yellen the biden administration.

you want to have a church and state divide but certainly something you need a bullet in the head for the fed to be increasing rates by chunky increments well into an election year we are excited to lose police one chamber of commerce. host: scotland on our independent line. caller: hello. host: you are on, go ahead. caller: thank you. i'm just calling, i been looking a lot of the midterm coverage. it just seems that biden's being blamed a lot for inflation and the cost-of-living crisis going on. i wanted to say with just how bad it here -- it is here as well. inflation 11% here, people literally can't cope and it's

terrible. i know it's like that across most of europe. it seems like that across the world. that he'll be punished for something that is a global problem, it's everywhere. and they're working on things that could actually help people with the cost-of-living. don't never get that through a favorite huge wave of republicans. to me that's just a real shame. host: thank you. guest: yes, inflation is global, that's what people are forgetting. as much as it's politically pungent to blame the administration and power for the surge in inflation, a lot of these were set in motion from the pandemic.

joe biden didn't cause the pandemic. donald trump didn't cause the pandemic. donald trump and congress pushed through ppp and other benefits. an of system of business since -- interruption. the government, uncle sam has to bailout millions of employers and millions of workers nationwide. they didn't really have a precedent to deal with this pandemic economy crash. and people forget in the spring of 2000 we were nearing mid 10's unemployment. there was footage on the nightly news about long bread lines and people seeking out help with unemployment and everything else that people were terribly nervous about losing their jobs, there was no one at home to help the kids. there was kind of this weightlessness, this feeling of falling. the government, trump was in power. they had to arrest that.

the supply chain issues, not the issue of washington could you imagine a chip or a break sensor would've held up the auto industry so much over two years and caused all sorts of pricing inflation for used cars and new cars. it was certainly global and if you look at other countries, we can not, there's attempt to export inflation. everybody is feeling it and everyone's trying to deal with it and it's a problem for every government and central bank. >> christian in connecticut in woodbridge. caller: hello, thank you very much for taking my call. if i could get a few points out i would greatly appreciate it. i would like to talk about the federal reserve and central banks. now they, when covid started and they were doing qe before covid.

so they printed about $9 trillion. and if you count that printed money, about 30% of it ever printed since 1913. that's pretty insane. so i think tim grant said it the best. he said the federal reserve is both the arsonist and the firefighter. now the federal reserve has been a bubble creating machine arguably since the days of alan greenspan. they did that through low interest rates after 2008 the used qe to boost asset prices. no boosting asset prices with massive inflation prices before the covid epidemic, the difference was that $9 trillion that was printed went out of the public and they spread the inflation throughout the rest of the economy. now when we are analyzing this, i know --

i'm no fan of jerome powell but inflation, inflation is the most dangerous thing for a civilization. there is no greater threat to a civilized society than inflation and it's brought down all the great empires host: over history. host: we will leave it there. thank you, caller. >> there's a clear argument of federal reserve has intervened excessively at least is the time of alan greenspan and the ascension of alan greenspan. when you look at the last 30 years. we've traded bubbles for crashes and other subsequent bubbles that came out of excessive fed spending. i think they were accused of keeping rates too low for too long well into the housing bubble. and that's the housing bubble we certainly had terrible unintended consequences with subprime and wall street toxicity and foreclosures and everything and the fed is the caller noted had to come out with quantitative easing.

extraordinary measures of conjuring money out of thin air. the quantitative easing we saw out of the pandemic the fed was buying assets left and right, backstopping corporate bonds and everything and that led to unbelievable amounts of risk-taking in the markets in hindsight looking at crypto and nft's when you suppress rates and bring them down to zero. people go out and are induced to sometimes 2020 hindsight reckless things. and breaking the spell of the resulting inflation is difficult talking with the trillions of dollars that were added to the economy. the multiplier effect of money still in people's pockets. people taking money out of their homes with home equity lines of credit. i just don't know if 4% or 5% interest rate will solve that. host: we now have a viewer from london, england on her independent line. caller: thank you very much for taking my call. i'm calling from london.

my question is europe as an extension of the u.s. economy, yet it is not in the total conversation discussing the effect of this with recession and what would happen, what impact that would have on the u.s. economy. the other thing i would like to mention is the problem in europe is lack of access to cheap energy. no one is expressing that issue. how europe can have access to cheap energy. thank you very much. guest: the problem is europe also wants to d carbonized and the developed world and if you could get the liquefied natural gas of the united states to europe it wouldn't have this impending energy crisis over the winter. but you can have your cake and eat it too. if you want to de-carbonized includes natural gas, a gateway energy source with less carbon

intensive than burning oil or burning coal. but it's not getting to where renewables will need to get you. you see all sorts of mothball coal-fired plants being lit up again temporarily hopefully to get europe from the brink and this is cause all sorts of inflation that shows you how complacent and dependent develop europe has become on russia which turned out to not be so reliable. got easy to think that way that it's in their interest to sell us cheap natural gas and are interested take it. maybe you took the eye off the ball of energy independence. the u.s. felt that this time around. the last thing joe biden want to do is go to saudi arabia and give that fist bump to mohammad bin salman after talking about isolating the regime. this remains a problem and the longer energy prices remain high. economists would tell you that

would continue inducing investment in nonfossil fuel energy. host: a couple more minutes with our guest. talk a little bit about the jobs report. what does it say about wages? guest: wages are still going up in a more muted fashion. you see people out there do not want to lose workers. there's this wildcard now that maybe i'm halfhearted about certain workers. may be i'm not in love with the quiet quitting mentality or people demanding more of me. maybe a want to reassert my own leverage as a business owner. who are you going to hire to replace them? that's the reluctance preview given it all a wage hike that's not at inflation levels. in a perfect world you as see inflation nearing 10% you want to get an annual hike at or above that so you can maintain your purchasing power. it's not the case right now. using certain pockets of the

economy has more cloud than others. housing is falling. hospitality and some manufacturing remains strong. it remains to be seen pretty you want to truly express that, how would wages look like in a true economic decline? unemployment going up to the double digits. where would wages be. in a perfect world you want to take that academically or theoretically but practically i think that would make the market very honest very quickly. you see true price discovery with wages. host: here is brad in minnesota on the republican line. caller: good morning. an interesting conversation and we are talking about inflation, but i think that's kind of a way to manipulate the whole system here is the real problem is we are devaluing. we are devaluing our dollar and that's where we are at today and now we are and $30 trillion of debt that we will -- that will

never get repaid and we've taken from funds like the social security fund and rob trillions from that. we are in a bad position because of in most cases democratic policies and now i think with this being turned on, you'll see in the midterm they are going to get shellacked in the midterms because of that. people don't want to wait for things and one is on energy thinking we need to go to this clean energy. they have to have it now. those of the same people that never saved a nickel, never saved to buy a house or buy a car or buy something that they wanted. it's that people want instead of taking care of their needs. so as we devalue the dollar, this is where we are at today because, people think of

inflation it's worth more, it's not. host: thank you, brad. guest: the dollar is strong. and fact that's the problem. it's strong bear to the other currencies. it's great if you want to visit turkey or travel to scotland or buy things, buying imports, it's not great if you are united states exporter or a caterpillar , if you are a company that wants to sell parts to the u.k., to germany, europe-based economy. it makes it prohibitively difficult. this is another consequence of fed policy. taking operates at a faster clip than other developing and central banks are, you will see money moved back to the united states away from these economies and that can cause a price -- host: we saw the fed take rates to 20% in the 80's, correct me if i'm wrong.

could we guest: see repeat? guest:guest: nobody is suggesting that, but what if the problem is worse than the powell fed let's on. for the longest time they were saying inflation is transitory. i'm not a believer that the fed necessarily knows what it's always talking about. you can look at the data in early 2007. none of them are really thinking about this impending systemic wall street crash. terrible levels and required epic bailouts. maybe they just don't see how deep this money runs and how very difficult it is. if with the highest inflation in 40 years we certainly don't have the highest interest rate in 40 years. paul volker moving well into the high teens to break inflation. generationally for people to benefit from inflation really not being an issue for the better part of four decades. host: this is what came out from

something, the committee will continue to monitor the implns of incoming outlook. the, he will be paired to adjust the stanceonetary policy if that could impede al. the committee takes into account a wide range of information including labor market conditions, inflation measures and inflation expectations and financial and international development. guest: in plain english, we are doing our best. this can be more pain and we have to rid ourselves of inflation. earlier in the game rather than later because the belated policy remedies are more painful. >> in georgia this is debbie, independent line. >> good morning. i've called a few times over the years and i put my house up for sale because i'm at the point where i couldn't afford to keep going with my little benefits and apply -- this is breaking

down. so i put my house for sale. i got three offers. they were all from chinese corporations. not american citizens. and they came very close. what i refuse them because i know my neighbors, i love my neighbors and i didn't want to subject them to who knows what they would've brought in this house. so i wanted to keep the neighborhood peaceful, i rejected the offer and i would just want you to know putting your house for sale, american citizens can't afford to buy it is a shameful thing for this country. in the interest rates keep going up makes it even worse for the american families. i am broken hearted that communist chinese corporations are buying up our houses and

farms and properties. instead of americans. host: that's debbie in georgia. guest: people also want real assets at a time of inflation and you'll see even with the dollar being so strong we are the readout of safety when economies are devaluing. we see the likes of venezuela and the u.k. suffering, people of means want the whole part of the u.s. assets including and especially real estate, farm land. those are pillars of strength. host: tell us more about your program. what are you working on these next couple of weeks? guest: we are still covering inflation. we are going to post an episode tonight of a coffee shop owner in richmond, virginia called alchemy that decided to convert into a collective because they were watching starbucks in real-time try to unionize and trying to offer disability and promotions to your employees and

there is a level of upside and participation so is willfully converting into a profit sharing collective and that's a fascinating experiment trying to get in front of inflation, to get in front of the wage price tug-of-war battle between capital and labor, i think that's fascinating. and i think you are going to see a lot of people with eyes on starbucks and the two pulleys the world. labor is becoming, it's being asked of much more. if true worker to starbucks right now dealing with the drive through, dealing with walk-up customers, you're dealing with clearly the app pickup and delivery gig workers and everything and you're trying to get your head out of the water and ask for better working conditions and something approaching a living wage where we have inflation and that's becoming difficult for starbucks

which is looked at as the benchmark for all manner of hospitality and service sector employees. so i think the conversation continues as the fed is doing what it's doing. host: the host of full disclosure, thank you for your time today. guest: my pleasure always. host: former president trump and president biden both in rallies today in florida and new york respectively you can go to our website for more information and follow along in our app. that's it for our program. another edition of washington journal comes your way at 7:00 tomorrow morning. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2022] >> c-span is your unfiltered

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at c-span.org. >> tonight on q&a, elliott marsh examines his book "strength in numbers" looking at the polling in the 19th century and the accuracy of polls today. >> renee silver at "the times" is predicting donald trump has a 30% chance in the 2016 election. and the race is close in key states. i do wonder if every person in the media had understood that 30% as meaning these polls, thesis three elections, they're going to be wrong one time and if your sample size is 18 elections you have a pretty good chance the polls are going to miss enough, the losing presidential candidate could end up winning. i wonder how