accuracy of polls today. >> predicting that donald trump has a 30% tramp -- 30% chance not because national polls will be wrong but because the race is close in key states. i do wonder if every person in the media understood that 30%, meaning these polls, if you had three elections, the are going to be wrong one time. if your sample size is 18 elections, you have a pretty good chance the polls are going to miss enough to lose a presidential candidate could end up winning. i wonder how the tone of the campaign would have been different and what the people would have thought. >> elliott morris with his book, tonight at 8:00 eastern on c-span's q&a. you can listen to q&a on our

free c-span now app along with our other podcast. >> we continue our look at the midterm elections with two guests joining us to talk about various races and the factors that will determine power in the house. we are also joined by jacob serving as a reporter analyst. thank you for joining us. >> your recent analysis takes a look at where things stand today. how would you break that down? how would you break that down? guest: what can we say about the midterm elections, now just two days away? we currently see republicans as the favorite to take back the house of representatives. they need just 5 seats. in the senate, we see much more of a tossup. there is the possibility for democrats to expand their majority, the possibility of republicans to expand as well. it is clearly the republicans' to lose it on the governor side,

there are quite a few dynamics at play. we are looking at a situation where we potentially have competitive races in deep blue states like new york and deep red states like oklahoma. it really goes to show the politics that play out in d.c. not always in the states -- guest: right now, we have three tossup's, nevada, georgia, and pennsylvania. we believe these three races will be determinative when we look at senate power next year. arizona and new hampshire we believe tilt democratic. we believe north carolina tilt republican paid wisconsin as well here there are quite a few races. that is why we have our strange -- range. host: i believe three presidents in pennsylvania shows --

guest: earlier in the summer, it was clear john fetterman, that democrat, was losing in a lot of the polls, so folks were worried come on the republican side, that oz was falling behind. but it is clear he is gaining momentum. we kept in th tossup category throughout the summer, even as it looked like federman was in a clear lead, just looking at pennsylvania and the partisan lien --- lean. host: what is a factor at play as far as why it is so close? guest: all of these races have a couple things in common. if you look at the presidential race in 2020, all of them were decided by a couple of points. nevada and pennsylvania also within a two point margin. off the bat, we are looking at states that have shown themselves to be very evenly politically divided. beyond that, you have an interesting mix of candidates. take a race like nevada, which

is probably the republicans best pickup opportunity at the moment. this is a state that can break hard for republicans. and they have one of their better candidates in the cycle, one of the only republican candidates to run statewide. pennsylvania is an open seat, which always makes things competitive. then these two candidate, each with their own strengths but also weaknesses, battling it out there. in georgia, one of the most evenly divided states in the country can we saw how contentious that 2021 runoff was. herschel walker, raphael warnock battling it out, potentially to go to a runoff there as well. that is one of the reasons why this race is sticking in tossup, because if neither of those two men get 50% of the vote tuesday, we are back here for another month of overtime. host: in pennsylvania, did the

debate matter as far as standings? guest: there is always a debate as to debates as to how much they matter to voters minds. i think the initial reaction after that debate, which was rough for federman, after his stroke in may, to battle in that tv environment -- what we have seen in the polling data since then is, while voters tend to agree always won the debate, it is not clear it has actually -- to agree oz won the debate, it is not clear -- perhaps we continue to see it tighten, but the is nothing to suggest the debate specifically was an inflection point where oz suddenly took the lead. to the extent that the race tightened, it was tightening before, not necessarily caused by the debate performance. host: if you want to ask our

guests questions, call us at (202) 748-8000 for democrats. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8002 for independents. you can also text us at (202) 748-8003. we will show you some of the ads currently playing in pennsylvania. [video clip] >> this is frank o'hara's from steel country data has been a while since we have had a senator from western pa, and those years have not been great. washington forgot us. that is why i am with john fetterman. he has been fighting here for 20 years. washington sees us as runts. john sees steel. john will cut taxes for working people and make sure no one forgets our home. >> i am john fetterman, and i approve this message. >> pennsylvanians are in pain. i see it in your faces, your eyes. inflation is hurting everyone. gas prices, time and savings

diminished. john fetterman would raise everyone's taxes, making inflation that much worse. we need more balance and less extremism in washington. i am not a politician. i am a heart surgeon. more importantly, a husband and a dad. i am running to improve people's lives. it is what doctors do. host: probably no surprise to you, the economy and issues like that playing top in pennsylvania and races like that. guest: from the beginning, we knew the economy would be a key issue in the midterms care that was clear up until this summer, when the dobbs decision shook things up. i think these two ads show the economy has clearly won at -- out at the end of the day. voters believe republicans are

best equipped to deal with the economic issues they are facing. you can see someone like federman is going on offense on the economy, as dr. oz accuses him of raising taxes and doing things that would increase inflation and the cost-of-living problems that have plagued this country for the last two years. you are seeing fetterman has to focus on that. host: what is the best way to understand that the senate races close by the governor -- governors race is a different story. guest: in statewide races like senate and governor races, it can be a bigger factor, particularly in governors races. a lot of times, these are little more divorced from their national outcome, and you have two states that elect red governors and red states that elect democratic governors, and that is not too uncommon. in a swing state like pennsylvania, make sense that someone like the attorney general, josh shapiro, would

leading at this point. the republican candidate was not someone who they wanted -- it left all the candidates in a weak spot. doug mastriano was part of the january 6 insurrection, was involved in sending buses of trump supporters. most republicans have pretty much given up on that race. you do not see republicans actively spending there, which is a sign they do not believe mastriano is able to win. host: our first call comes from pennsylvania, independent line. this is bill. go ahead. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i have three points to make. one is about inflation. i truly believe there is a lot of collusion and price gouging going on. my heating oil supplier, the lady who owns the company, said

the refiners are holding up production of heating oil to keep prices up. that is one thing. inflation is collusion and gouging. my second point has to do with dr. oz. he tries to portray himself as a unifier, more of a middle-of-the-road candidate. but his ads not accurately portray who the real extremists are in this country, namely trump and his allies. so i think he is trying to pull the wool over our eyes big time. but the main reason i will be voting for fetterman -- well, schapiro is a no-brainer. but i will vote fetterman because i believe, in the end, when you get to the senate, he will be more of a pain in the butt to schumer, whereas oz, if he gets there, would be more of a kiss the butt for mcconnell. host: anything from that?

guest: the caller hit a number of interesting points. the question of dr. oz and where he is in his political beliefs and how he is portraying himself is one that has persisted from the beginning of the race, or when dr. oz got in. this pennsylvania race was quite unsettled until really early this year when dr. oz and dave mccormick, the hedge fund ceo, faced -- entered the republican primary. oz faced a lot of questions over whether he was a true conservative, and he had to work hard to win over conservative voters. he only won that primary by a couple hundred votes per there's already deep skepticism about where he is coming from, what his true beliefs are. it is an interesting question as to how he has been portraying himself in the general election versus how he had to portray himself to win the primary fear that may come back to bite him

in a couple days. the thing about fetterman is, like the caller said, he is not known to be a friend of the democratic establishment either. he really made his name running in 2016 as an insurgent candidate. his whole brand is about bucking authority. that is a central part of his appeal to voters, especially at a time when voters are clearly dissatisfied with what is going on in d.c. to have a guy like fetterman, who himself has positioned himself in opposition to the democratic powers here can be helpful in a year when democrats are running into headwinds. host: anything to add? guest: no, jacob hit the nail on the head. to bill's point on price gouging, you have seen that in democratic ads as they try to respond to the dam -- economic situation. it is clear when democrats control washington, they have to

talk about this issue in an offensive way, and that has been difficult for a lot of them. some have to flutter to the price gouging point as well. host: dan in concord, new hampshire how are you? caller: fine, how are you? host: fine. go ahead. caller: i am 63 years old. i've been a republican since 1980. voted for ronald reagan. i've never seen a democratic party go so far over the line. i really do not know how anyone right now could vote for that party whatsoever. the damage they have done the last two years is incredible. host: ok. dan in new hampshire. we have to talk about that states because it is an interesting one. guest: this is an interesting senate race. folks in the cycle earlier

thought it would be more competitive, because republicans wanted the governor to run for senate. republicans really struggle to consolidate around a nominee during the primary care because new hampshire also has such a late primary, it only happened mid-september, that gave the democratic incumbent, maggie hassan, and advantage and the ability to fund raise and build up her warchest ahead of this race. new hampshire is also a little more blue than some of these swing states we talk about, like georgia, wisconsin. it was always going to be a little bit harder for a republican to flip. but polls have shown that this has been tightening. republicans nominated don bolduc, a retired general. he is also ready far to the right, but a lot of republicans believe that this could potentially be a pickup opportunity, and this may be a lot closer than some democrats were expecting. host: how close?

guest: polls have short anywhere to a tide race to a lead for senator hassan of about 10 points. i think it is somewhere in the middle, a load to mid single-digit lead peer on the governor's, governor chris sununu is poised to win reelection by a significant margin. still double digits, so that is a boost to all republicans running in the state. the reality is this is a state that has close elections. it is not, however, a majority maker. there is a difference between a majority maker in the senate and icing on the cake. the majority maker's are those three seeds in the tossup category, pennsylvania, nevada. whichever party wins two of three will win the majority, and weber wins these democratic states -- tilt republican -- and whoever wins these tilt states --

those are secondary races at the end of the day. whoever wins this tossup category will be the one walking into d.c. with control next year. host: how would you describe the struggle senator cortez -- guest: this is a race a lot of people were not paying attention to because they consider nevada is a democratic state. it is not. it is a purple state. senator cortez masto is in her first term. she is not super well known in the state. the thing about nevada, there is such a high turnover rate, so many of the voters there now were not there in 2016 when she won her last election. and she only won with about 37% of the vote. so not starting off in a particularly strong position. she is facing adam laxalt, who is one of the republicans'

better candidates this cycle. he has won a statewide election before. this is an incredibly close race. nevada's economy has been particularly hard-hit by the covid-19 town direct -- pandemic, the slow recovery, especially on a state so dependent on tourism. it is really a perfect storm for republicans to try and come in and flip some of these seats. they are competitive in three of the four house districts, the fourth one they already have. nevada looks primed for republican expansion. but it is still quite close at all levels of the ballot. host: she has hispanic and latina roots. where is she with that group? guest: in 2020, republicans made a lot of gains with latino

voters, but it was not all across the map equally. it was definitely specific to a lot of regions. obviously, it is important to remember we are having these conversations that latino voters are not monolithic. a lot of times, folks like to think of them as either based democratic voters or, maybe now, more likely to vote republican. but they are really more independent and a lot of these parts of the country. in nevada, we have seen cortez masto has been pulling decently well with them. but nevada is a hard state to pull and has undercounted democratic performance in the past. hard to tell whether -- what it will play out. republicans have a decent chance of winning all three of those, and they control the fourth, a safe republican seat, so they could have a clean sweep of the four nevada house races. these three other districts are districts biden would have won

by a couple points in 2020 p these are right in the middle of the republicans map in the house this year. host: new jersey, republican line. go ahead. caller: i am the opposite of the last caller. i am still in high school. i think the republican party is really old and democrats are the future. i think democrats should -- republicans are not progressive at all. i think -- i am in new jersey. all of our ads are about oz and john fetterman and stuff. fetterman, the debate was really bad that he had. i think he had a stroke before -- it was really bad. i still think he is -- he's

pretty radical, but -- other than that, i think democrats should be sweeping for the next 10 years. the republicans are way too last century. host: quentin in new jersey. anything there? guest: that is always the question. will younger voters turn out? we did see in 2020 they turned out in record numbers. but polls have shown in this cycle that probably will not be the case. particularly earlier in the summer when biden's approval numbers were really low. at that point, we really saw a lot of democrat base voters, including younger voters, were

dissatisfied with the way president biden was handling things. i think some of his actions on things like student loan forgiveness could have impacted rings, but it is still up in the air whether that will actually make these voters turn out. host: as far as messaging, the caller said democrats should be doing better in this process. as far as messaging they have delivered to potential voters, have they done a good job of that? guest: we are in a midterm election. the historical trend suggests the party in control has a bad return. you are hard-pressed to find instances in which the president's party gained seats in either the senate or the house. only 7 of the last 25 midterm elections, the president's party did not lose seats in the senate. 23 of the last house midterms, the president's party law seats. heading into this election, we all somewhat new this was in the

cards are the question of whether democrats have been successful messaging to the voters they need is a little unanswerable until we get to wednesday morning or perhaps a week from wednesday or wherever we have full results, because again, there is plenty of indicator to suggest republicans are poised for a really good year. the difference will be in the question of whether it is a great year for republicans or if it is a mediocre year but still good enough for them to take back the majority. if we wake up wednesday morning and republicans have won seven house seats and lost a senate seat, that is a perfectly reasonable outcome, and it would mean that republicans took back the majority in the house, but it would also be quite a disappointing result for a party that is expecting to do much better. i think democrats are very, very good at getting very, very nervous. it has been interesting to see the same exact thing happen in 2022 as happened in 2020, as

happened in 2018. final weeks of the race, you start seeing all the stories about democrats worried they are not speaking to the right voters, they will not turn out their base. maybe that is true, maybe that is not, by that kind of attitude seems to be independent of actual results at the end of the day. that is something that is always going to happen in these contests. we will see when we get the results. but at the moment, the fact that we are even talking about democrats potentially expanding their majority in the senate and limiting republicans to a single seat or low double-digit seat gain in the house suggests they have done something at least to limit the damage from the historical perspective. host: david is in florida, republican line. caller: good morning. i was watching their previous segment on the independents, and those people are mixed up your they should not even be voting. that is not why i called. i have a quick comment and then

a question. i watched c-span a little bit. i worked, so i do not normally watch it but the weekend. but watching it yesterday, the visceral hate for donald trump is unbelievable. most people need to go outside and take a hit of fresh air or something. there is a quote out there that hate destroys the vessel that contains it, and they may want to take that into consideration. my question is -- in this country is literally saturated in left-wing propaganda, from the mainstream media to the schools to the entertainment industry, sports and tech. do you think there is any long-term future in the republican party if this trend continues? host: let me take apart what he had a stan smart is the election is concerned. this year, is this still a referendum on former president trump? guest: it is definitely a referendum on free -- it is definitely a referendum on president biden.

the question is how much of a referendum it could be on former president trump? i think not. a couple months ago, the supreme court decision on dobbs made this less of a referendum on biden and more of a choice i think it has reverted to being a referendum on president biden. he had a huge role in turning out republicans. a lot of these competitive states like iowa the other weekend. at this point, you are not seen trump in any of these campaign ads. yours inc. president died in. on the democratic side, you will see people like kevin mccarthy, or members like marjorie taylor greene, but you are not seeing trump at all. host: is january 6 still a part of the cycle? guest: january is playing out in

the minds of voters. the party and power struggles to turn out there base and struggle to motivate their voters. a disaster for democrats up and down the ballot because voting was so low. not just independent voters or lower propensity voters, but those you would normally expect to support democrats were nowhere to be found. january 6 is still playing out in voters' minds. those four years were an incredible watershed moment for organizing. people were dragged into politics anyway that they were not previously. to keep some of that fire alive, i think january 6 is incredibly help to democrat on a base motivation level.

positioning this as important is a good way to keep your voters engaged. as to whether it is bringing any swing voters, i think there is less evidence to suggest that, but in order to win, you have to do both. you have to turn on your base and win them over. host: to be guests joining us for this conversation. you can ask them questions for the remaining half hour. >> inside elections is a nonpartisan organization that decides how competitive we believe that we are and we also do our own reporting and analysis. we are looking at different factors. we are also looking at what

president biden's current numbers look like. midterms are typically a referendum on the party's power. we are also looking at the polls . we are talking to the candidates themselves and the campaign. we're are just putting that together to use the data and the factors to make a decision about how competitive the races are. host: we will have you talk about it a little bit. >> every year, they are grown in georgia. that is nuts. that is half of america's peanuts. we needed somebody to fight back. >> eliminating the regulations

and standing up for farmers. i approve this message because i will do anything, if it means helping georgia. >> now that is really not. >> under democrats control, violence. police targeted and chaos at the border. a weaker america and a failing president. >> two years ago, we were strong and respected around the world. then joe biden came along. it is time to take our country back and start thinking about greatness again. i humbly ask for your vote on tuesday. host: what is the best way to understand what is currently going on in the senate race in georgia? guest: i think the most likely outcome for the georgia senate races that it will probably go into a runoff.

with a third-party candidate on the ballot, it is unlikely that they will be able to hit the percent. the senate race went to a runoff. this year, the runoff is scheduled for early december. we will know the results a little sooner, but there is a decent chance that control of the senate could come down to georgia. if it goes to a runoff, we may not even know into the beginning of december. guest: we saw the senator talking about his ties. he is a democrat running in georgia. i think those ads were interesting because they demonstrated the appeal that

they are trying to make. he is focused on a very georgia specific issue. he is shown that he is working on it with republicans, one of the most conservative republican in the senate. looking at the herschel walker ad, talking a lot about biden and inflation, and national concerns. decently well-liked. voters really do not like democrat. the goal for walker is to tie to joe biden every step that he can. we saw this over and over again.

he's not doing better because joe biden has a 40% approval meeting -- meeting in this -- in the state of georgia. republicans are doing everything they can to tie them together. we always knew this would be incredibly close, even with all the stories about walker. they continue to play a prevalent role in the news. these are candidates that are very close to each other. both of them have low ceilings in terms of how much they can get. host: this is on our mind for democrats. caller: i'm listening to the conversation you have and i have gotten off my track.

this is definitely a referendum on president biden. what i believe is that he has done a good job. if people could open their eyes and see the things that he is trying to get done -- but people do not do that. they think more on what president trump did. he divided our country. by dividing our country, made it a lot harder for joe biden to get things done. he has tried to get the gas prices down. i think the grocery prices, the gas prices are all set by a market that is going crazy right now. people do have money to spend.

the money situation is the same for the whole world. we are all in a downfall. prices are ridiculous and makes it hard for a regular citizen to get by. guest: they are hitting a couple of really good points. they feel frustrated with the lack of intention of things that have happened. but i think it speaks to the limits of what the administration has been able to do. it speaks to the prominence of a certain set of issues like inflation that overrides a lot of the concerns and

accomplishments that the biden administration has put on the table. inflation in prices is something that voters are confronted with every day. they are constantly being hit over the head with this same thing. it is not enough to win over voters by saying, here is this bill that i passed. so it does underscore how difficult it has been the democrats to focus on their accomplishment because there is an encompassing issue right in front of them. democrats want to talk about the relief packages. a lot of these things happened in early 2021. they are no longer talking about it because it is on the backseat

for inflation. it is important that they have those accomplishments. people live for democrats. he did not want to be in a position where they are not happy. why do i show up to vote? i do not like what is going on either. i will not take time out of my day to take off work, go to my polling place and wait in line. it is important that you have your base, but you also have to win over the voters. host: how are you watching the governor's race play out? guest: we recently moved it, which is an indication of how competitive it has gotten in the last couple of months.

we do believe that it will probably be closer than what we expected a couple months ago. we have seen it play out on the congressional district level as well, where the governor is not pulling well and a lot of these congressional races. some of the democrat are worried that she may be driving them down. that race will be a lot closer than expected. those polls have shown that she will win by mid to single digits. there have been a lot tighter polls way she is only up. we do believe that it is more competitive than a couple weeks ago. caller: good morning.

i meant to call on the independent-minded we are all a part of how. in 1972 -- i was 19 years old. in any case, i had an epiphany. i feel lucky. it is difficult not to hate dick cheney, but i have managed not to hate him because of his daughter, liz cheney. i'm grateful that i did not fall into that trap. donald trump would make an absolutely fantastic reality tv president. he has the skills for that iq could not believe, but i could not vote for him for president. i know how to count cards.

i played blackjack. i got too much money from his casinos playing blackjack. when you are president of the last, the people around you do not work for you, they work for the taxpayers. they are meant to accommodate you. host: thank you. we will take the fact that he is from ohio. guest: this has been an interesting senate race. it is a lot more competitive. pulling a couple points behind, but that is a lot closer. trump won ohio in 2020. this should not be one that republicans or democrats are competing seriously for.

but we see that tim ryan has been able to make this a closer race. this is where the nominee currently is represented. it will be one to watch. host: what are we looking at? guest: in the senate, we have covered the talks. the state of oregon, the governor's mansion the last 40 years -- 40 years, but they are in danger of losing it this year. this is one of the closest gubernatorial races in the country that speaks to some of the issues in urban areas. we have seen that they have to

distance themselves. we have some interesting dynamics going on. it is fascinating. we have 20 races in our category. republicans favored 216 c. there is a universe where democrats run the table. they will end up with 219 seat, one more than they need for the majority. even though we think that republicans are poised to pick up seats and have a really good night in the house, there is still a slim possibility.

the table is still there for democrats. we are not in a position where we see republicans favored. these tossup races in the house will be incredibly important. history would suggest that they are all going to break one way or the other. quite a few to watch their. i think a lot of people are treating this as a foregone conclusion. where they win races just as important. host: we have seen the polls. how do you trust polls in this process? guest: in 2020 they undercounted republican voters. we saw that with how large the margins were, but we also saw

that they ended up picking up a lot of seat that most were not expecting that they would win. they do account for those errors and try to adjust for them. we are looking at their methodology and track, whether they are partisan or nonpartisan i think it is important to look at the larger trend and see if they fit within or if they are outlier. host: from pennsylvania on the independent line. caller: good morning. now, let's get to the issue here. i have a couple points to make. with the democrat party and publican party -- when bush was

in the white house, i wanted to address this. they do nothing. they did not test the reserve. let's move on to afghanistan. we have 2000 taliban. we trained 300,000 afghans and gave them weapon. you want us to stay there and fight? 300,000 -- [indiscernible] let's talk about inflation.

[indiscernible] host: i think the larger topic at hand is -- guest: withdrawal from afghanistan was an interesting point. pre-afghanistan joe biden, his approval rating was solid, bid to low 50's -- mid to high 50's. it was an inflection point. in particular, the images that we saw this first couple of days . that seems to be where he lost the confidence of a lot of the country. even though the data suggests that it was time.

they are more than happy to hold one particular position. when that comes to fruition, they take a look at the outcome and say, i disagree with that. it is a reason to be more circumspect and technical about assigning political impact to what we see in the pulling numbers. just because people say they want one thing does not mean that they will be happy when it happened. the afghanistan moment was one that was major at the time. we saw in that one had, footage of the kabul airport. this has stuck in the minds of voters, especially republicans, over the last year.

>> c-span's washington journal, every day we take your calls live on the air on the news of the day and discussed policy issues that impact you. monday morning, sean trendy, senior elections analyst talks about campaign 2022 and tuesday's midterm election. then rachel, elections project associate director discusses the roles, safeguards and potential security issues and at this year's midterm election. watch washington journal live at 7:00 eastern on c-span or on c-span now our free mobile app. join the discussion with your texts and tweets. >> tomorrow, the midrm -- ahead of the midterm eleions president biden and former president trump continue on the campaign trail.

at 8:0 former president trump is in ohio campaigning for gop candidates includi u.s. senate candidates j.d.ance. you can watch both of these evts live monday here on c-span, c-span now and were free video app, and online at c-span.org. >> tuesday, election day, starting at 8:00 p.m. eastern watch c-span's live election night coverage to see which party will control congress. here it results as they happen. see victory and concession speeches from the candidates on c-span, the c-span now free mobile app and online. at c-span.org/campaign 2022.