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announcer: comcast supports c-span as a public service, along with these other levision providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. . host: sean trende is with us this morning here to talk about campaign 2022. we are one day away sean trende. the end is near for you. i'm sure you are looking forward to the end of this cycle given how busy it is for people like you. what do you predict for the senate? guest: the senate is tough. there are 5 legitimate tahoe's upper races -- tossup races. republicans are playing defense and pennsylvania. you have the big 4 democratic races in arizona, georgia, new hampshire, and nevada.

right now we are looking at probably 52 or 53 democratic seats, but these races are so close. it would not be surprising if a republicans swept them all. it wouldn't be surprising if they lost them all. host: tomorrow night as the election results are coming in, what are you watching for that could be an indicator of one party controlling the chamber? guest: miles coleman had a great graphic that he put up, a graphic -- the stages of a wave. the first one is virginia's second district. heir -- their polls close relatively early. it is a swingy district. if republicans win that district, it will be a good night for republicans.

if they end up winning virginia's seventh district, abigail spanberger is representing, it is a wave night. if they end up winning the 10th, which is abide in heavy district, the unfavorable -- it is like something we have not seen before. that is where i will be watching first. host: going up to the state of new hampshire, how does that get onto the list of the top five to watch? guest: the incumbent senator has never been terribly popular. she has been pulling below 50% the entire time. the problem is the republicans once again nominated a problematic candidate for she had a 10 point lead. steadily those undecideds have broken in towards the republican. now we are in a dead heat. our average has hassan up just a

little bit. that could easily go either way. host: on election night tomorrow are there some counties you are watching in the state of new hampshire to give you an indication of where this is headed? caller: there are a bunch of rural counties in the north and that is the really interesting place to watch because rural america has been swinging in the midwest. that transition isn't completed in the mideast. if that starts to swing towards republicans, you know that will be a rough night for democrats everywhere. host: what about the state of georgia? what is happening there? early voting, a lot of turnout for early voting in georgia. what do you think happened? caller: we have to be careful

when we talk about early voting. -- guest: we have to be careful when we talk about early voting. you can get an idea of how they will vote. we have no idea what will happen on election day. republicans could turn out in force because they have a president or former president who has been disparaging early voting and mail-in voting, or maybe they don't turn up. we have to be careful with the early voting number. with that race, herschel walker was closing in on the incumbent, raphael warnock, but then he got hit by a couple of horrible stories for his candidacy that he paid for girlfriends' abortion, he denied it. we did not see warnock's number improve. walker's number dipped. they swung back and now that

race is no can as well. it is probably going to a runoff election, but there is a chance that brian kemp could end up dragging walker across the 50% mark. host: explain that phenomenon. guest: if no candidate gets to 50% of the vote plus one, you have a runoff election, but what we think might be happening in this race is the governor brian kemp is projected to win pretty handily over his opponent stacey abrams. with these undecided voters who are going into the polling booth who will be pulling the lever for camp, will they also turn around and vote for warnock? there is a chance that they go in and pull the level r for camp and then they pull an r for walker as well because that is

how they started with. given that this race is so close and walker is close to 50%, it is a real possibility. host: in the state of pennsylvania, why is this race tight right now and what are the polls showing? what are the averages? guest: that is another race that is can act. dr. mehmet oz is up a little bit. that race is just a mess. you have a national environment in the state that is increasingly right at the center of american politics. the democrats nominated john fetterman, who is probably a little too liberal for the state. republicans turned around and nominated dr. mehmet oz of oprah winfrey fame. he is well-educated, but he also happens to live in new jersey. it is kind of an immovable force

against an irresistible object to their. federman had a stroke shortly after winning the nomination -- fetterman had a stroke shortly after winning the nomination in the spring. performed well in some interviews elsewhere. everything has gone wrong for both parties. our suspicion is that the national environment is the tiebreaker, but that is a race where it wouldn't surprise me if it ended up either way. host: before we get to the arizona-nevada races, ohio -- you didn't mention the senate race there. the hill newspaper said it could be one of the upsets if democrats win it. guest: i would be genuinely shocked if the democrats won that race. that is a race where the polling

has been the can that, but if you look closely both the democrat tim ryan and the republican j.d. vance were pulling around 45%. in a state like ohio that liens read, they will vote for -- that leans red they will vote for dewine. i expect he ends up winning easily. unless the polling error leans away from the republicans this time. i think ryan comes up short. it has been a fascinating race to watch. vance didn't raise a whole lot of money. he has been absent from the airwaves. ryan has been running ads are bragging about voting against a nancy pelosi and lining up with trump on wanting

to cut taxes. it has not been your traditional left-right race. host: let's talk about nevada. what are you watching on election night to give you an indication of which party could win this seat? guest: nevada is another interesting state. about 70% of the vote happens in clark county, which is greater las vegas county. we expect that cortez-boster will do well in clark county. very few people live elsewhere. those will be overwhelmingly read for the republican, former attorney general. what things come down to is reno, which is a midsized county, 10% to 15% of the vote. if black salt wins there, he is

a senator. if he loses narrowly, it is a very close race. if cortez-bosco can win by more than a few points, she will keep her job. host: what are you watching on election night in the state of arizona. guest: arizona is another state where candidates have problems. after masters one the nomination, -- that is a state where most of the vote is cast in maricopa county, which is greater phoenix. that is where i am going to be laser focusedon election night -- focused on election night. masters has a real chance. kelly has been ahead in the polls, but not by much. he has the lead, but if things

go poorly for democrats, masters would notch up the upset. host: could the governor's race have an impact on this senate race? guest: that is an interesting question. this is not a state like georgia or ohio where the incumbent republican has a massive lead and could be pulling candidates over the finish line. this is a race where the republican kari lake is favored to win, but you will probably win narrowly by a couple points. a very -- in a very tight race that could be the difference maker, but i don't think she is a political force enough to pull him over the finish line. host: let's talk about the house. what are your predictions for which party controls the house and by what margins? guest: the first question is much easier than the second. the simple story is that the

democrats lost the house on election night 2020 when they lost 13 house seats setting up a very narrow margin of control. republicans only need 5 seats to take the house and there have only been 4 elections going back to the civil war where the president's party did not lose 5 seats. that is that. as far as the margins go. it is really tough -- as far as the margins go, it is really tough. the parties have gutted the swing districts. there are no cities at the middle of the national vote. one corollary is that is there are these levees on either side of the swing districts where there is a bunch of districts that biden won by 10 points.

if things go bad enough for democrats that love the -- levy gets swamped. we are saying somewhere in the 20's for republican gains, but if you end up with a slight break towards republicans, you could start seeing republican gains in the 30's. host:host: which races will you be watching on election night ? those virginia races? guest: that is the key thing i will be watching. there is also an election in indiana in the gary area where there is a white democrat facing off against a republican lack female. it has swung against the democrats in recent years.

that is an indication there'll be problems for democrats across the midwest. we will be watching that race in new hampshire. there is a competitive race in the first district republicans didn't get the nominee they wanted but it is a young, former trump staffer running an energetic campaign. if she wins that district it is a good indication this will not be a good night for republicans. that virginia seventh and 10th districts --n if the in a situation -- if the 10th flips we are in a situation we have not seen in a long time. host: which voter or which voters will have made the difference? guest: there are 2 groups i think are interesting.

the first group is hispanic voters. i think a lot of people were surprised how well republicans did among hispanic voters in 2020 and if they can hold onto those gains there are a series of districts in south texas that could end up flipping. one of them elected a latina republican in a special election in june. there are a bunch of districts there -- they are biden districts but not heavily so and if there is a continued movement towards republicans by letting -- latinos, it could flip. after the dobbs decision to reverse roe v. wade, we are getting reports that college-educated females have been swinging back towards republicans. in a close race differences are made at the margins.

if some voters do swing back somewhat towards republicans that will be one of the major storylines of the night that dobbs had an immediate impact on voting patterns then faded over the stretch. if democrats over perform that is a story as well. host: let's get our viewers to join in on this conversation. we went through a lot of states. if you are in one of those states and you agree or disagree ,: and let us know if you are going to vote and why. democrats, (202) 748-8000. republicans, (202) 748-8001. independents, (202) 748-8002. we had a couple independents call in and say it was the economy, but then they said " i am not going to vote."

an independent voter saying the economy is the biggest issue for them and they are not going to vote. guest: that is the fault of the parties. i think republicans have done a good job complaining about the state of the economy but they have been short on solutions. bernie sanders i think was right on the mark when he criticized the party's messaging about dobbs and threats to democracy. however real those issues are they are not the issues the american public are saying they are saying they're interested in. biden's closing argument should have been more focused on the economy. i heard the last caller. he is obviously open to voting for democrats but he is not hearing the message on what democrats will do and what they have done. they have had a fairly productive congress so the parties are talking past the

american people right now. it is not good for faith and elections frankly. -- faith in election. host: we are hearing from henry. how do you plan to vote? caller: i already voted. i voted a straight democratic ticket because i believe in president biden's agenda of college debt forgiveness, o trying to getf -- of trying to get childcare tax credits for women who want to go join the workforce. i believe in his build back better plan, the infrastructure bill he had passed a was bipartisan. president biden is doing a fantastic job and this economy and the inflation question, i am reminded that satan is the author of all lies, and i here on c-span every morning, people

calling in, saying "i love to satan -- host: i'm going to jump in. what about the first part of what he had to say? guest: there are two interesting things there. you are asking about the governors race, but he immediately transitioned to a conversation about president biden. that is very typical. it is a good reminder for us. these elections are often referenda on the people in power, although people are pulling the lever for state representative or school board, they are doing it with presidential performance in mind . that is a state where the governor has been controversial, but she has lined up well, done a good job explaining her position. she is in a solid position. i also think it will be close. when the caller was talking about things he liked about president biden, apropos of our previous conversation, it was

all about economic issues, kitchen table issues. it was about the tax cuts and build back better. this color is obviously well educated -- this caller is obviously well-educated. why was the closing speech about democracy, which is incredibly important, but when you are in the final stretch and you are trying to motivate your voters to go to the polls, i don't know it was the right message. this caller was motivated by the president's accomplishments on kitchen table issues. i think that is true of a lot of other people who will turn out to vote, or may be turn out to vote republican. host: " everything this guy is saying is not what i am hearing now. the polls are wrong because of gen z and x not answering the

phone. most are based on land lines, which are the boomers, and we know how they vote." guest: there is something to be said for that, and something not to be said for that. there are real challenges to the polling industry. people have transferred to mobile phones, and everyone has caller id, so response rates have plummeted. at the same time, there are things posters can do to account for those issues with waiting -- weighting. the problems we have had with polling over the last few cycles have been trump supporters not answering the phones. they don't trust media companies, don't want to take their polls. i think people should understand that, yes, there have been 2% or 3% point errors that have favor democrats over the past few cycles. it could easily be two or three

points going the other direction like we saw in 2012 where obama over performed the polls. the polls are rough indicators, not precise instruments. host: what about the youth vote? caller: youth voters have been -- guest: youth voters have been heavily democratic since 2004 and they are the lifeline keeping the democrats afloat. if they turn out in force, they will help democrats, but things like -- we give examples from mobile phones and increasingly people are figuring out how to use internet samples. i'm not worried that there are noma lineal or gen z in the samples -- no millennials or gen z in the samples. it will take some time to figure out. host: paul in port st. lucie, florida, independent. good morning. caller: good morning.

i just have a question for the analyst. what what happened to the majority -- there is no majority. it is always 50-50. a small or one or two percentage rate. what would happen if the people knew that the government was them? what would happen to the majority? host: sean trende? guest: i think you do have a sense of alienation from politics that is pervasive in america today that is affecting the way people vote and the way people turnout. it is hard to imagine the universe the caller is describing where people understand that they get the

government we vote for. our politics would look very different -- so different that it is really difficult to predict. i think the underlying intuition that voters either do not understand or believe that their vote matters really is a real issue in democracy today. host: carol in alabama, republican. caller: i agree with you. people should get out and about. what happened in virginia not too long ago, is going to happen across this country tomorrow. i don't know why democrats are in denial about it, but they are. the fact that you keep calling these republican candidates problematic, the fact that you don't think they are good candidates doesn't mean other people don't think they are good

candidates. just because they they have not run for a race before does not mean they are bad candidates. i think republicans are going to sweep this space if they do not count ballots that are not legal. biden saying it is going to take days to determine how many -- determine who one is a problem for many people. in france they counted 80 million ballots. they do not do mail-in ballots over there, which is different from absentee. host: sean trend go aheade. guest: i agree with the final statement. we have states that get their ballots counted quickly. florida is extremely efficient and counting its ballots. i don't know enough about election administration to know

why other states don't do it like florida does. i think states, at least in that respect, should strive to be more like florida. as far as the comment about problematic candidates, if you have run for office before, there is value to experience when you are running for office. there is value also do not being in the d.c. bubble for a long time. you learn how to run a campaign, you learn how to interact with voters. there is benefit to that experience. as far as the problematic candidates, the truth is republicans have nominated candidates who have problems. it is a problem that oz did not live in pennsylvania for very long. i don't think you can spin that or believe that.

he might still win, but it is a real issue. one thing that gets overlooked is that the democrats have problematic candidates. as well i tried to emphasize this when we talked about pennsylvania that it is a problem that fetterman had a stroke. it is a problem in wisconsin that the democrats didn't seem to that their senate candidate as well as they could have hoped. that is a race where they would be in a much better position if they had gone through mandela barnes twitter feed and seen some of the things he had tweeted early in his career. there are candidates that are fairly noncontroversial and there are candidates that raise red flags with voters and republicans have nominated a fair number of them in some of these races. host: william in georgia,

democratic caller. tell us about the governor's race there. what do you think? caller: i am a democrat, obviously. i support stacey abrams, but she is pulling behind -- polling behind. i concede she will probably lose that race. herschel walker, there is a litany of things that herschel walker has an issue with. he lies about his education, his business, he has a violent background, which he admits to. children of of wedlock. -- children out of wedlock. when you talk about republicans putting forth problematic candidates, that is the perfect example. it is hard for democrats to compete if that is the standard that republicans will settle for. there is no messaging that can

overcome that, unless you have a better voter base. even with that messaging does not try to convince the other side to support you. you want your own base to rally behind you. i think democrats have to do a better job of not defending themselves, but talking about their record and the record of their opponents. host: what do you think voter enthusiasm is like for democrats in the state of georgia? caller: my wife and i, we voted early. the line was fairly long. every night on the news, they show a long line out there, lots of voter enthusiasm. personally, and i'm just going to stay what i feel on

television, i'm not putting any other emphasis on it, but i have seen a very high minority turnout, which i think speaks loudly. another issue is you see just as many signs supporting warnock, stacey abrams, in all areas, in affluent areas. even though the polls are tipping towards republicans, i don't think they are an exact indicator of what is going to happen. host: sean trende, which counties, which areas are you watching in georgia tomorrow? guest: i think there are 2 things. there is the turnout issue. we will be watching some of the rural areas, george's black belt . -- georgia's black belt. atlanta has gotten so big. you have to be watching the counties in the greater atlanta

area, counties like forsyth, and cobb counties. see if they underperformed. it was such a close race in 2020. your democratic callers have said they have already voted. they voted early. the previous republican caller expressed discomfort with mail voting and early voting. that is a warning flag for people who are trying to parse these early voting numbers. the democrats have embraced the idea where were -- whereas republicans seem skeptical of it. that is why there is drama and uncertainty about election day. because early voting numbers may be badly skewed? maybe not. host: john in geneva, ohio, independent. caller: i'm independent because

like both parties in my opinion -- we elect representatives to go down there to actually, you know, represent us, and you get down there and do you see this big bunch of fighting, back-and-forth. i went independent because both sides as far as i'm concerned don't represent the people. one thing i would like to see, and i think both sides would agree with this is just to have -- where we have like, what do i want to say here? term limits on these offices where they do not get the power from the different industries or whoever feeds them the money. host: are you voting? have you voted? do you plan to vote? caller: i have not voted yet,

but i plan on voting. host: which candidate? caller: i probably would have voted ryan, but i'm leaning more towards j.d. vance. it is refreshing to me, whether you be democrat or republican, you just see somebody new, someone who wants to represent people. it is refreshing. what about the governor ? who will you vote for -- host: what about the governor? who will you vote for in the governor's race? caller: undecided. host: why undecided? caller: i'm just undecided. there are issues on both sides that i agree and don't agree with. tomorrow i will make a decision i guess. host: can i ask you one last question. president trump is coming to your state tonight.

does that sway you one way or the other? caller: no. when it comes to trump, i like a lot of his policies. i think with his twitter, he needed to shut up. i don't know. i would like to see somebody else run instead of him. i am just sick of career politicians. i think that is where a lot of america is. host: sean trende? guest: i think this caller once again gets out a lot of the discomfort and malaise, to use a horrible word, in america right now. there is a sense, especially among independent voters, that the government is not working for them, that the people who get sent to washington are not there to represent them.

this is an environment where some of these outside candidates can flourish. i also thought the insight the voter had that a real problem with president trump -- you have a lot of people his message and policies resonate with but do not like him personally. i know we are here to talk about 2022, but we will be talking about 2024 in 2 days. it will be interesting to see how that plays out. there are people who like trump, who like that he fights, do not necessarily like the way he does it. it will be interesting if there is a candidate who can exploit that. host: hi margaret. caller: i want to think outside the box. no one has mentioned that one of the worst decisions the supreme court ever made was that

donating money to political campaigns is tantamount to free speech. you cannot tell me a fan organization donates money for a political campaign they are not expecting something in return. it is very similar to that, " if i get stopped speeding on the highway, and a trooper pulls me over, and tells me -- and i tell him 'i know your kid is struggling in college, here is $100'" that is tantamount to bribery. it warps the information for the public. guest: the issue of campaign finance is a complex one. we could probably do an entire show talking about it. one thing that is important for

the color to understand is there are limits on how much you -- caller to understand is there are limits on how much you can give to a candidate. the days of giving $1 million to a candidate and having them in your park it -- your pocket are over. how will candidates get their message out? do you favor public financing elections? do you favor limitations? incumbents raise money easily because they are incumbents. if you are too strict about the money that people can have in their campaign, it ends up hurting the challengers and it becomes incumbent protection. you have to find a way to make sure the challengers would be able to get an adequate amount of money to fund their

campaigns. it is scratching the surface of this issue. the caller's instinct are correct that money can be corrupting in politics. the question about the alternative and how you address this issue is something that is very difficult to work out neatly. host: dixson, illinois. tammy is democratic caller. caller: good morning. i completely believe that it is not just us. the entire world is in so much turmoil. having said that, i agree with what was said and what trende said. i watch 4 to six hours of news every day, and nothing has been said. i was so frustrated until gavin finally said it. start talking about the issues people are talking about!

the economy and everything else -- as far as all this other stuff, i was a republican for years and i was an ultra right conservative. i mean far right. i was a john bircher. i have been voting democratic for years now. if i was a republican today, i would be ashamed of my own party. as far as trump, it is an abomination. host: sean trende? guest: i think again there is some frustration. the news media comes out of a bubble in d.c., with people at cocktail parties are interested in. i'm not here to say that the discussion about democracy and

election-denying and all these things are not a legitimate cause for concern. it is. at the end of the day you have to go out. if you want to have the power to affect changes on some of these issues, you have to go out and convince the voters that you are listening to them and care about the issues that they care about. if you spend 18 months making a pitch on democracy, and the run-up to the election you have to talk about the issues that are resonating with them, the economy, the things that the biden administration is accomplished, and go from there. it makes me scratch my head. maybe i will be proven wrong. maybe there are quiet geniuses and we will see democrats over perform and we will look back and say joe biden had the right idea with his closing argument. host: what about some sleeper races you think could surprise

everybody? guest: there are a lot of them right now. pulling has been really scarce this cycle -- polling has been really scarce this cycle. that michigan governors race, we could see an upset there. we have seen some real last-minute closing in the washington senate race. that probably goes to the democrats but if there -- but there is a poll error that could make it uncomfortably close. going the other way in oklahoma the governor, the republican governor -- this is one of the most republican states in the nation -- but the republican governor is abrasive and unpopular. the democrats did something very clever. they got a republican official

to run against governor stitt. for independents who might lean republican but might not be comfortable with some of the more liberal left-wing policies of some democrats, it is reassuring that this is a former republican. she is not likely to go out on the limb. we have these polls narrowing in new york. i don't think lee zeldin is going to pull it off but that races way closer than any of us thought it would be two months ago. host: let's hear from gary in kentucky, a republican. caller: how are you doing? host: good morning. caller: you are chatting it up there in washington. host: members are back in their states campaigning for the election tomorrow. caller: everybody is gathering money. that is what it is all about. i will -- i am down here and

what we call the flyover states. i feel sorry for the poor guy in indiana who said, " i won't vote because i don't believe it will help." i am a vietnam vet. wake up and see what is happening besides what they say. i have been in 2 or 3 spots where we have -- we have china sitting up there and everyone else is coming up through the bottom. people need to wake up. trump is my man. i have worked for employers that were worse than trump, but the man got the job done. my employers got the job done. we were paid well for what we did. this is what it is all about. that is the american dream to me. i am raising a family.

god knows how many kids i got, grandkids, and great grandkids. it is so hard right now. these democrats are fixing to lose all this money. republicans are fixing to lose this money, if they get beat out. everyone is worried about saying the right word. when i was in the service and you were in that foxhole you did not care if you were gay, lesbian or whatever. protect my ass and get me home. host: we are going to hear from an independent -- dennis. caller: to be honest with you, if you have not decided who you are going to vote for right now, you are kind of lost. you cannot fix stupid, you know? you have to look at all the facts.

you either believe the election was fair and was for the good of the country, or do you elect a bunch of deniers who are bad for the country? there is no, " this is good, this is bad." host: let's take that point. the pull from pew research conducted some surveys in october. this issue of saving our democracy, what president biden is arguing, is resonating with the democratic base. they do rank that is one of their top issues -- as one of their top issues. host: i want to say back to the caller from kentucky, he says no one cares. this is my favorite show of all shows because i get to hear what the american people care about. i live in a bit of a bubble. i am in ohio, but don't think that no one cares! this is my real chance to hear

what real voters in america think, so i welcome it. on the question about democracy, it does resonate with the base. part of what biden is trying to do is motivate the base because they need base voters. they particularly resonate with white progressive voters, but at the same time i look at the senate rate here in ohio. why has tim ryan been performing so well? his commercials are not about j.d. vance is an election denier. his -- he is talking about taxes. he is talking about kitchen table issues. that is really resonating with some voters who otherwise don't think people are really listening to them. i understand what the caller from michigan is talking about. if you don't make your voice heard, you are letting other

people -- other people will make their voice heard. you might not like the people who end up going out and being hurt. -- being heard. i understand the psychology of nonvoting, but i think it is flawed psychology. i think you go out, whether it is democrat, republican, or a third party candidate, be heard. host: according to chris christie,, a former republican governor of new jersey, he is predicting on the sunday shows yesterday that bennett, the democratic incumbent in colorado could get unseated. guest: i'm not as convinced with that one. that is a race that has been breaking a little towards the republican. his numbers have not been overwhelming by any stretch in

the polling. that might be out there on the fringes. the problem is joe bennett has been getting trashed because he was not sufficiently supportive of president trump. president trump has trashed him in messages, which may well be hurting him with republican voters. i am more skeptical of that state. i think it is fair to call that race on the fringes. if we end up with a republican performance of enough points it could conceivably happen. host: nina and mick elson, florida -- mick elson, florida. caller: my comments are mainly we need middle-of-the-road republicans and democrats. everyone is left or so right. trump is so right.

he has really burst it my bubble these last couple years. president biden is so negative and always yelling at people. we need to get back to the middle-of-the-road, here is what we need for our country and quit hating each other. i have already voted. i did not vote based on who endorsed who. i looked at my research and i voted that way. host: before you go, you called on the democratic line. did you vote for all democrats? caller: no i didn't. i didn't vote for all republicans either. host: how did you vote in the governor's race in florida? caller: i voted for governor desantis. i'm sorry that trump last, time in florida wedding give him a shout out because -- wouldn't give him a shout out. he wouldn't even give a shout out to or what our governor has

done for florida for the senior citizens in our state. i want it -- host: why not charlie crist? caller: he was governor before, and he has been up in washington dc. it is just like a retread. i'm so tired of old, white politicians trying to retread their careers. host: what about the senate race? marco rubio or val demings? caller: i went with marco rubio, and i was astonished that trump put him down so bad when he ran for president and then last night was like embracing him. i didn't think marco needed to do that, but val demings -- she says she is not for crime, but everything she has done is to increase crime, so crime is another big factor. host: sean trende, what do you

make of that? guest: i think it is important to remember, if you are someone who lives on twitter or in the media world where we are a little bit bubbled, and most people in our bubble have neat, ideological divisions, that is not how it works when you get out into the voting world. you get people who consider themselves democrats who vote for a lot of democrats, but something like crime really resonates with them, or charlie crist having been governor, having been in d.c. as something that resonates with them so it does not, line up as neatly with ideological views as it might for us. voters view things in a different way. that is why this is such a great show. it inevitably illustrates the

way people think. i do not think there is a whole lot of doubt about the outcomes in florida this election. we have really seen a break towards rubio and desantis. i think the fact that both of these are breaking off some traditional democratic voters as an explanation for why these races look like they're opening up at this point. host: we will go to hampton, virginia, terry, an independent. caller: i say independent. i voted for trump. i am not for the way he is now. i would vote for ron desantis, if he was there. this world has gone to hell in a handbag, our country, and i cannot hear what you are saying. host: we were listening to you. how do you plan to vote?

if you have already voted, how did you vote in your congressional races there in virginia? caller: in our races here it doesn't matter. scott all the way. we are one of those cities that are still giving away -- i can't believe we are in '22 and they are still doing food stamps. no one is doing anything. i still have to pay my full taxes. nothing for us seniors or homeowners, people who have worked all their lives. it is everybody who is poor, but not everybody is poor, they're just taking advantage. i am sick of it. i think all the old people up in the senate. enough is enough. they need to flip them all, but i will vote republican. host: sean trende.

the caller is right. it is a heavily democratic district. it is hard to craft a republican district. i think it is -- one of the difficult things about what we have, which is you do not just vote for the party and the -- a lot of other countries have that system. it is called proportional representation. one of the downsides of district-based representation is what this caller describes. it can be frustrating to be a republican and a heavily blue area, or a democrat and a heavily red area, and know that when you vote you will cast your ballot, but it is highly unlikely your preferred candidate is going to win.

a lot of people consider themselves independent. that does not mean they are wishy-washy. a lot of independents have very strong views on politics and certain orientations can lean fairly consistent partisan voting. that does not mean they are partisan or that their vote is not up for grabs. they may feel strongly for one party or the other. host: karen in new york, republican. caller: how are you? host: morning. caller: i already voted. i went republican. right now if i was to vote in 2024 i would vote for florida, desantis. i think he has a better shot at it. all these democrats who keep saying the border is closed, the border is open, and i do not know where the baby formula is.

i have a four-month-old child who is having a problem with breastmilk and you cannot find formula on the shelves and i have another grandchild on the way at the end of this month. host: 2 colors in a row said they would vote for ron desantis -- callers in a row said they would vote for ron desantis over donald trump. i know campaign 2024 hasn't started quite yet, but as you said it will start the day after tomorrow when campaign 2022 e nds. guest: former president trump is doing well in republican polling. hei take most of these callers,f not for president trump himself, have affection that he has brought issues to the forefront

that republicans have previously ignored. the question is, how many of these voters have trump fatigue? they like what president trump has done but they are tired of the drama. and that is kind of what i hear in some of these callers. they are tired and they don't want to go back to the days of angry tweets at 2:00 in the morning that they have to fight about with friends and family. that is where i see governor desantis, if he has an opening, is with the voters saying they are going for trump but they are looking around and would prefer a version of trump who does not make controversial comments the former president is fond of making or is more measured in their use of social media. host: sean trende, thank you for the

>> coming up at 8:00 p.m. eastern, fmer president trump campaigns in ohio. including u.s. senate j.d. vance. both of these events live on c-span. also on c-span now, our free video app and online at c-span.org. >> election day, starting at 8:00 p.m. eastern, watch c-span's live election night coverage to see which party controlled congress. senate and governor races from around the country. see victory and concession races on c-span, c-span now and at c-span.org/campaign 2022.

c-span is your unfiltered view of government. it we are funded by these television companies and more. while supports c-span as a public service. giving you a front row seat to democracy. >> next the discussion on what affect online content moderation needs. the discussion touches on free speech and sermons and the role of congress at setting policy. this conversation on elections and online disinformation is hosted by the american enterprise institute in washington dc.