c-span, the c-span now free mobile app and at c-span.org/campaign2022. >> c-span now is a free mobile app featuring your unfiltered view of what is happening in washington live and on-demand. keep up with the day's biggest events with live streams of floor proceedings and hearings from the u.s. congress, white house events, the courts, campaigns and more from the world of politics, all at your fingertips. also stay current with the latest episodes of washington journal and find scheduling information for c-span's tv network and c-span radio, less a variety of compelling podcasts. c-span now is available at the apple store and google play. download it for free today. c-span now, your front row seat to washington anytime, anywhere. >> there are a lot of places to get political information. but only at c-span do you get it

straight from the source. no matter where you are from or where you stand on the issues, c-span is america's network. unfiltered, unbiased, word for word. if it happens here or here or here or anywhere that matters, america is watching on c-span. powered by cable. sean trende is with us this morning here to talk about campaign 2022. we are one day away sean trende. the end is near for you. i'm sure you are looking forward to the end of this cycle given how busy it is for people like you. what do you predict for the senate? guest: the senate is tough. there are 5 legitimate tahoe's upper races -- tossup races.

republicans are playing defense and pennsylvania. you have the big 4 democratic races in arizona, georgia, new hampshire, and nevada. right now we are looking at probably 52 or 53 democratic seats, but these races are so close. it would not be surprising if a republicans swept them all. it wouldn't be surprising if they lost them all. host: tomorrow night as the election results are coming in, what are you watching for that could be an indicator of one party controlling the chamber? guest: miles coleman had a great graphic that he put up, a graphic -- the stages of a wave. the first one is virginia's second district. heir -- their polls close relatively early. it is a swingy district.

if republicans win that district, it will be a good night for republicans. if they end up winning virginia's seventh district, abigail spanberger is representing, it is a wave night. if they end up winning the 10th, which is abide in heavy district, the unfavorable -- it is like something we have not seen before. that is where i will be watching first. host: going up to the state of new hampshire, how does that get onto the list of the top five to watch? guest: the incumbent senator has never been terribly popular. she has been pulling below 50% the entire time. the problem is the republicans once again nominated a problematic candidate for she had a 10 point lead.

steadily those undecideds have broken in towards the republican. now we are in a dead heat. our average has hassan up just a little bit. that could easily go either way. host: on election night tomorrow are there some counties you are watching in the state of new hampshire to give you an indication of where this is headed? caller: there are a bunch of rural counties in the north and that is the really interesting place to watch because rural america has been swinging in the midwest. that transition isn't completed in the mideast. if that starts to swing towards republicans, you know that will be a rough night for democrats everywhere. host: what about the state of georgia?

what is happening there? early voting, a lot of turnout for early voting in georgia. what do you think happened? caller: we have to be careful when we talk about early voting. -- guest: we have to be careful when we talk about early voting. you can get an idea of how they will vote. we have no idea what will happen on election day. republicans could turn out in force because they have a president or former president who has been disparaging early voting and mail-in voting, or maybe they don't turn up. we have to be careful with the early voting number. with that race, herschel walker was closing in on the incumbent, raphael warnock, but then he got hit by a couple of horrible stories for his candidacy that he paid for girlfriends' abortion, he denied it. we did not see warnock's number

improve. walker's number dipped. they swung back and now that race is no can as well. it is probably going to a runoff election, but there is a chance that brian kemp could end up dragging walker across the 50% mark. host: explain that phenomenon. guest: if no candidate gets to 50% of the vote plus one, you have a runoff election, but what we think might be happening in this race is the governor brian kemp is projected to win pretty handily over his opponent stacey abrams. with these undecided voters who are going into the polling booth who will be pulling the lever for camp, will they also turn around and vote for warnock? there is a chance that they go

in and pull the level r for camp and then they pull an r for walker as well because that is how they started with. given that this race is so close and walker is close to 50%, it is a real possibility. host: in the state of pennsylvania, why is this race tight right now and what are the polls showing? what are the averages? guest: that is another race that is can act. dr. mehmet oz is up a little bit. that race is just a mess. you have a national environment in the state that is increasingly right at the center of american politics. the democrats nominated john fetterman, who is probably a little too liberal for the state. republicans turned around and nominated dr. mehmet oz of oprah winfrey fame.

he is well-educated, but he also happens to live in new jersey. it is kind of an immovable force against an irresistible object to their. federman had a stroke shortly after winning the nomination -- fetterman had a stroke shortly after winning the nomination in the spring. performed well in some interviews elsewhere. everything has gone wrong for both parties. our suspicion is that the national environment is the tiebreaker, but that is a race where it wouldn't surprise me if it ended up either way. host: before we get to the arizona-nevada races, ohio -- you didn't mention the senate race there. the hill newspaper said it could be one of the upsets if democrats win it. guest: i would be genuinely

shocked if the democrats won that race. that is a race where the polling has been the can that, but if you look closely both the democrat tim ryan and the republican j.d. vance were pulling around 45%. in a state like ohio that liens read, they will vote for -- that leans red they will vote for dewine. i expect he ends up winning easily. unless the polling error leans away from the republicans this time. i think ryan comes up short. it has been a fascinating race to watch. vance didn't raise a whole lot of money. he has been absent from the airwaves.

ryan has been running ads are bragging about voting against a nancy pelosi and lining up with trump on wanting to cut taxes. it has not been your traditional left-right race. host: let's talk about nevada. what are you watching on election night to give you an indication of which party could win this seat? guest: nevada is another interesting state. about 70% of the vote happens in clark county, which is greater las vegas county. we expect that cortez-boster will do well in clark county. very few people live elsewhere. those will be overwhelmingly read for the republican, former attorney general. what things come down to is

reno, which is a midsized county, 10% to 15% of the vote. if black salt wins there, he is a senator. if he loses narrowly, it is a very close race. if cortez-bosco can win by more than a few points, she will keep her job. host: what are you watching on election night in the state of arizona. guest: arizona is another state where candidates have problems. after masters one the nomination, -- that is a state where most of the vote is cast in maricopa county, which is greater phoenix. that is where i am going to be laser focusedon election night -- focused on election night. masters has a real chance.

kelly has been ahead in the polls, but not by much. he has the lead, but if things go poorly for democrats, masters would notch up the upset. host: could the governor's race have an impact on this senate race? guest: that is an interesting question. this is not a state like georgia or ohio where the incumbent republican has a massive lead and could be pulling candidates over the finish line. this is a race where the republican kari lake is favored to win, but you will probably win narrowly by a couple points. a very -- in a very tight race that could be the difference maker, but i don't think she is a political force enough to pull him over the finish line. host: let's talk about the house. what are your predictions for

which party controls the house and by what margins? guest: the first question is much easier than the second. the simple story is that the democrats lost the house on election night 2020 when they lost 13 house seats setting up a very narrow margin of control. republicans only need 5 seats to take the house and there have only been 4 elections going back to the civil war where the president's party did not lose 5 seats. that is that. as far as the margins go. it is really tough -- as far as the margins go, it is really tough. the parties have gutted the swing districts. there are no cities at the middle of the national vote. one corollary is that is there are these levees on either side

of the swing districts where there is a bunch of districts that biden won by 10 points. if things go bad enough for democrats that love the -- levy gets swamped. we are saying somewhere in the 20's for republican gains, but if you end up with a slight break towards republicans, you could start seeing republican gains in the 30's. host:host: which races will you be watching on election night ? those virginia races? guest: that is the key thing i will be watching. there is also an election in indiana in the gary area where there is a white democrat facing off against a republican lack female.

it has swung against the democrats in recent years. that is an indication there'll be problems for democrats across the midwest. we will be watching that race in new hampshire. there is a competitive race in the first district republicans didn't get the nominee they wanted but it is a young, former trump staffer running an energetic campaign. if she wins that district it is a good indication this will not be a good night for republicans. that virginia seventh and 10th districts --n if the in a situation -- if the 10th flips we are in a situation we have not seen in a long time. host: which voter or which voters will have made the

difference? guest: there are 2 groups i think are interesting. the first group is hispanic voters. i think a lot of people were surprised how well republicans did among hispanic voters in 2020 and if they can hold onto those gains there are a series of districts in south texas that could end up flipping. one of them elected a latina republican in a special election in june. there are a bunch of districts there -- they are biden districts but not heavily so and if there is a continued movement towards republicans by letting -- latinos, it could flip. after the dobbs decision to reverse roe v. wade, we are

getting reports that college-educated females have been swinging back towards republicans. in a close race differences are made at the margins. if some voters do swing back somewhat towards republicans that will be one of the major storylines of the night that dobbs had an immediate impact on voting patterns then faded over the stretch. if democrats over perform that is a story as well. host: let's get our viewers to join in on this conversation. we went through a lot of states. if you are in one of those states and you agree or disagree ,: and let us know if you are going to vote and why. democrats, (202) 748-8000. republicans, (202) 748-8001. independents, (202) 748-8002.

we had a couple independents call in and say it was the economy, but then they said " i am not going to vote." an independent voter saying the economy is the biggest issue for them and they are not going to vote. guest: that is the fault of the parties. i think republicans have done a good job complaining about the state of the economy but they have been short on solutions. bernie sanders i think was right on the mark when he criticized the party's messaging about dobbs and threats to democracy. however real those issues are they are not the issues the american public are saying they are saying they're interested in. biden's closing argument should have been more focused on the economy. i heard the last caller. he is obviously open to voting for democrats but he is not

hearing the message on what democrats will do and what they have done. they have had a fairly productive congress so the parties are talking past the american people right now. it is not good for faith and elections frankly. -- faith in election. host: we are hearing from henry. how do you plan to vote? caller: i already voted. i voted a straight democratic ticket because i believe in president biden's agenda of college debt forgiveness, o trying to getf -- of trying to get childcare tax credits for women who want to go join the workforce. i believe in his build back better plan, the infrastructure bill he had passed a was bipartisan. president biden is doing a fantastic job and this economy

and the inflation question, i am reminded that satan is the author of all lies, and i here on c-span every morning, people calling in, saying "i love to satan -- host: i'm going to jump in. what about the first part of what he had to say? guest: there are two interesting things there. you are asking about the governors race, but he immediately transitioned to a conversation about president biden. that is very typical. it is a good reminder for us. these elections are often referenda on the people in power, although people are pulling the lever for state representative or school board, they are doing it with presidential performance in mind . that is a state where the governor has been controversial, but she has lined up well, done a good job explaining her position. she is in a solid position. i also think it will be close.

when the caller was talking about things he liked about president biden, apropos of our previous conversation, it was all about economic issues, kitchen table issues. it was about the tax cuts and build back better. this color is obviously well educated -- this caller is obviously well-educated. why was the closing speech about democracy, which is incredibly important, but when you are in the final stretch and you are trying to motivate your voters to go to the polls, i don't know it was the right message. this caller was motivated by the president's accomplishments on kitchen table issues. i think that is true of a lot of other people who will turn out to vote, or may be turn out to

vote republican. host: " everything this guy is saying is not what i am hearing now. the polls are wrong because of gen z and x not answering the phone. most are based on land lines, which are the boomers, and we know how they vote." guest: there is something to be said for that, and something not to be said for that. there are real challenges to the polling industry. people have transferred to mobile phones, and everyone has caller id, so response rates have plummeted. at the same time, there are things posters can do to account for those issues with waiting -- weighting. the problems we have had with polling over the last few cycles have been trump supporters not answering the phones. they don't trust media companies, don't want to take their polls. i think people should understand that, yes, there have been 2% or

3% point errors that have favor democrats over the past few cycles. it could easily be two or three points going the other direction like we saw in 2012 where obama over performed the polls. the polls are rough indicators, not precise instruments. host: what about the youth vote? caller: youth voters have been -- guest: youth voters have been heavily democratic since 2004 and they are the lifeline keeping the democrats afloat. if they turn out in force, they will help democrats, but things like -- we give examples from mobile phones and increasingly people are figuring out how to use internet samples. i'm not worried that there are noma lineal or gen z in the samples -- no millennials or gen z in the samples.

it will take some time to figure out. host: paul in port st. lucie, florida, independent. good morning. caller: good morning. i just have a question for the analyst. what what happened to the majority -- there is no majority. it is always 50-50. a small or one or two percentage rate. what would happen if the people knew that the government was them? what would happen to the majority? host: sean trende? guest: i think you do have a sense of alienation from politics that is pervasive in america today that is affecting the way people vote and the way people turnout. it is hard to imagine the

universe the caller is describing where people understand that they get the government we vote for. our politics would look very different -- so different that it is really difficult to predict. i think the underlying intuition that voters either do not understand or believe that their vote matters really is a real issue in democracy today. host: carol in alabama, republican. caller: i agree with you. people should get out and about. what happened in virginia not too long ago, is going to happen across this country tomorrow. i don't know why democrats are in denial about it, but they are. the fact that you keep calling

these republican candidates problematic, the fact that you don't think they are good candidates doesn't mean other people don't think they are good candidates. just because they they have not run for a race before does not mean they are bad candidates. i think republicans are going to sweep this space if they do not count ballots that are not legal. biden saying it is going to take days to determine how many -- determine who one is a problem for many people. in france they counted 80 million ballots. they do not do mail-in ballots over there, which is different from absentee. host: sean trend go aheade. guest: i agree with the final statement. we have states that get their ballots counted quickly.

florida is extremely efficient and counting its ballots. i don't know enough about election administration to know why other states don't do it like florida does. i think states, at least in that respect, should strive to be more like florida. as far as the comment about problematic candidates, if you have run for office before, there is value to experience when you are running for office. there is value also do not being in the d.c. bubble for a long time. you learn how to run a campaign, you learn how to interact with voters. there is benefit to that experience. as far as the problematic candidates, the truth is republicans have nominated candidates who have problems. it is a problem that oz did

not live in pennsylvania for very long. i don't think you can spin that or believe that. he might still win, but it is a real issue. one thing that gets overlooked is that the democrats have problematic candidates. as well i tried to emphasize this when we talked about pennsylvania that it is a problem that fetterman had a stroke. it is a problem in wisconsin that the democrats didn't seem to that their senate candidate as well as they could have hoped. that is a race where they would be in a much better position if they had gone through mandela barnes twitter feed and seen some of the things he had tweeted early in his career. there are candidates that are fairly noncontroversial and

there are candidates that raise red flags with voters and republicans have nominated a fair number of them in some of these races. host: william in georgia, democratic caller. tell us about the governor's race there. what do you think? caller: i am a democrat, obviously. i support stacey abrams, but she is pulling behind -- polling behind. i concede she will probably lose that race. herschel walker, there is a litany of things that herschel walker has an issue with. he lies about his education, his business, he has a violent background, which he admits to. children of of wedlock. -- children out of wedlock. when you talk about republicans putting forth problematic candidates, that is the perfect

example. it is hard for democrats to compete if that is the standard that republicans will settle for. there is no messaging that can overcome that, unless you have a better voter base. even with that messaging does not try to convince the other side to support you. you want your own base to rally behind you. i think democrats have to do a better job of not defending themselves, but talking about their record and the record of their opponents. host: what do you think voter enthusiasm is like for democrats in the state of georgia? caller: my wife and i, we voted early. the line was fairly long. every night on the news, they show a long line out there, lots of voter enthusiasm.

personally, and i'm just going to stay what i feel on television, i'm not putting any other emphasis on it, but i have seen a very high minority turnout, which i think speaks loudly. another issue is you see just as many signs supporting warnock, stacey abrams, in all areas, in affluent areas. even though the polls are tipping towards republicans, i don't think they are an exact indicator of what is going to happen. host: sean trende, which counties, which areas are you watching in georgia tomorrow? guest: i think there are 2 things. there is the turnout issue. we will be watching some of the rural areas, george's black belt

. -- georgia's black belt. atlanta has gotten so big. you have to be watching the counties in the greater atlanta area, counties like forsyth, and cobb counties. see if they underperformed. it was such a close race in 2020. your democratic callers have said they have already voted. they voted early. the previous republican caller expressed discomfort with mail voting and early voting. that is a warning flag for people who are trying to parse these early voting numbers. the democrats have embraced the idea where were -- whereas republicans seem skeptical of it. that is why there is drama and uncertainty about election day. because early voting numbers may be badly skewed? maybe not. host: john in geneva, ohio,

independent. caller: i'm independent because like both parties in my opinion -- we elect representatives to go down there to actually, you know, represent us, and you get down there and do you see this big bunch of fighting, back-and-forth. i went independent because both sides as far as i'm concerned don't represent the people. one thing i would like to see, and i think both sides would agree with this is just to have -- where we have like, what do i want to say here? term limits on these offices where they do not get the power

from the different industries or whoever feeds them the money. host: are you voting? have you voted? do you plan to vote? caller: i have not voted yet, but i plan on voting. host: which candidate? caller: i probably would have voted ryan, but i'm leaning more towards j.d. vance. it is refreshing to me, whether you be democrat or republican, you just see somebody new, someone who wants to represent people. it is refreshing. what about the governor ? who will you vote for -- host: what about the governor? who will you vote for in the governor's race? caller: undecided. host: why undecided? caller: i'm just undecided. there are issues on both sides that i agree and don't agree with.

tomorrow i will make a decision i guess. host: host: former president trump is coming to your state tonight. will that swing it one way or the other? caller: when it comes to trump, i liked a lot his policies. i think with twitter and everything else, he just needed to shut up. i don't know. i would like to see somebody else run instead of him. i'm sick of career politicians. i think that is where a lot of america is. if they want somebody that is going to represent them. host: all right, sean? sean: the color gets at the discomfort and malaise in america right now -- the caller gets at the discomfort and a

malaise in america. government is not working for them. the people that get sent to washington are not related thereto represent them. and this is an environment where some of these outsider candidates really can flourish. i also saw the insight that the voter had, that a real problem with president trump -- a lot of people who his messages and policies resonate with but do not like him personally. that is going to be interesting. i do we are here to talk about 2022, but we will be talking about 2024 into days. that could be an interesting thing to see how it plays out. i think there are people who like donald trump, who likes that he fights. but do not night -- necessarily like the way he does it. it'll be interesting to see if there is a candidate who can exploit that freedom. caller: i just want to think

outside the box. nobody has ever mentioned that one of the worst since it -- decisions this up in court ever made is that donating money to a campaign is tantamount to free speech as opposed to bribery. you cannot tell me if an organization donates a lot of money to a political campaign that they are not expecting anything in return. it is very similar to that if i get stopped speeding on the highway and a trooper pulls me over and i say i know you're having a tough time paying for college and your kids, so here is a hundred bucks. you cannot tell me that that is not classified as bribery. no one is going to mention that. and this is what bothers me. donating money to a political campaign is tantamount to bribery. i do not think it is free speech because it really warps the information for the public. host: more on your point, sean? sean: the issue of campaign

finance is a complex one. we could do an entire show talking about it. the one thing that i think is important for the caller to understand is that there are limits on how much -- at least for now limits on how much you can contribute to federal candidates. so the days where you could give a million dollars to a candidate and hope that you would have them in your pocket are largely over, although there are ways to manipulate that. the bigger issue is that we are going to have candidates who are dependent on donations. how are candidates going to get their message out. do you favor public financing of elections. if so, do you favor limitations on it? the other thing to understand is incumbents raise money easily because they are incumbents. and so, if you are too strict about the amount of money that people can have in their campaigns, it ends up hurting the challengers and becomes a

bit of income and protection. you have to ensure challengers would be able to give an adequate amount of money to fund their campaigns. again, this is just scratching the surface of this issue. the caller's instincts are absolutely correct. money can be corrupting in politics. there is a question about the alternative and how you address this issue, that is something that is very, very difficult to work out neatly. host: illinois, tammy is a democratic caller. hi, tammy. caller: hi, good morning. first of all, i completely believe that it is not just -- the whole world is in so much turmoil. having said that, i absolutely agree with what sean said. i watch four to six hours of news every day.

and i was so frustrated until they said he needs to start talking about the issues that people are talking about. the economy and everything else. and as far as all of this other stuff, i mean, i was a republican for years. i was an ultra-right conservative. i mean, far right. i was a john bircher. and i have been voting democratic for years now. and if i were republican today, i would be completely ashamed of my own party. as far as trump and all of his people, it is an abomination. host: sean? sean: yeah, i mean, i think again, there is some frustration that the news media and the messaging that the parties are pushing comes out of a bubble in d.c.. about what people at cocktail parties are interested in or people who live on twitter are

interested in. it is tough because i am not here to say that the discussion about democracy and election denying and all of these things is not a legitimate cause for concern. it is. but at the end of the day you have to go out. if you want to have the power to affect changes on these issues, you have to go out and convince the voters that you care about the issues that they care about. so, if you spent 18 months making a pitch on democracy and happened to cost voters interest, in the run-up to the elections you have to talk about the issues that are important to them. the economy, the things that the biden administration has accomplished. and go from there. it really makes me scratch my head. maybe i will be proven wrong. maybe there are surprises and we will see democrats over perform.

we will say it joe biden had the right idea with the closing argument, but i am not so sure about that right now. host: what about some sleeper races that you think are going to surprise everybody? sean: a lot of them right now, because policy has been scarce this cycle. a custom that we are kind of looking at, the michigan governor's race is closed. we could see an upset there. we have seen some real last-minute closing in the washington senate race. that was probably done for the democrats but if there is a pole error of two or three points, kind of the margin that we saw in 2020 or 2016, that would be uncomfortably close. for patty murray. going the other way, in oklahoma, the governor, republican governor, one of the most republican states in the nation, the republican is controversial and unpopular.

the democrats did something very clever. they got a republican official who has won statewide twice to run against the governor. so i think for independence you might lean republican but not be comfortable with some of the more liberal policies of some democrats, it is reassuring that this is a former republican. she is not likely to go out on a limb. and of course, we have polls narrowing in new york. i do not think lee zeldin is going to pull it off. i think the state is just too democratic, but boy, that base is way closer than any of us thought it would be two months ago. host: let's hear from gary in kentucky, a republican. caller: -- >> we're going to leave this program. right now to maryland where president biden is campaigning for democratic candidates for governor for the