♪ host: from pressing a year-long process into a frenzy of one week. the senate passed a short-term bill yesterday, buying them a

week. fiscal year 2023 spending is still in the air. good morning. it is friday, december 16th. we would like to hear your thoughts on that. here are the numbers. republicans, (202) 748-8001. democrats, (202) 748-8000. independents, (202) 748-8002. send us a test if you would like. that is (202) 748-8003. we are on facebook and on twitter if you would like to post something. what are your concerns about the process and your thoughts on the fiscal responsibility of it all. go ahead and start calling.

from politico, senate clears a spending bill averting government shutdown. it gives more time to flesh out $1.7 trillion in a year and spending package that congress is racing to clear before the holiday. negotiators involved however are keeping spending details under wraps as not to endanger support for the bill. the majority leader seeming pretty positive, >> we have not had a single government shutdown during the entire 117 congress and we are not starting now. today's resolution will keep the government open long enough to give our appropriators a chance to finish their work on a year-long funding backend.

this is about taking a very simple and exceedingly responsible step to ensure we finish the year with minimum drama. one week gives us time to keep working. i want to think my colleagues on both sides of the for their cooperation. next week overly we will finish the job. having a package that will keep the government funded into next fall. nobody will get everything they want. but the final product includes winds everybody can get behind. including investment for our small businesses and military families. no drama, no gridlock, no government shutdown this week. it is a win for the american people. host: your thoughts and comments on the spending process. republicans, (202) 748-8001. democrats, (202) 748-8000.

independents, (202) 748-8002. we will get to your calls momentarily. joining us to talk about the spending debate in the passage is a reporter with the hill. alex, or stop to the passage of the ndaa. the senate sense that defense will, -- bill was the hold up in getting that bill passed? >> one of the biggest holdups was that conservatives were demanding language in the bill that was opposed by the biden administration to repeal the covid-19 vaccine mandate for service vendors -- members in the military. mccarthy was threatening to block the bill and had a group of conservatives that would hold

up in the senate. this was a mandate around august 2021 that requires service members to get the vaccine. more than 8000 service members have been forced out because they are noncompliant with that mandate. they have various reasons not to do it so conservatives including russia blackburn -- marsha blackburn and mike lee sell this -- sell this as a personal rights issue for service members and they pushed hard. in the end chuck schumer and nancy pelosi agreed, because they want to get the defense bill done. if it was blocked they would not be able to get it done either. those major pieces of legislation were seen as going hand in hand. the major leverage that they have over republicans to pass it.

host: the policy bill has $858 billion which is part of the $1.7 trillion package. the timeline we now have his next -- through next friday. schumer said hopefully what are some of the potential roadblocks for that bill? >> the it hundred $58 billion includes $11 billion outside of the jurisdiction as well. so it would be 847 billion. he said the spending in it will mirror what is in the ndaa so we have a pretty good idea of what

the defense numbers will be. it will be slightly higher than the discretionary number. it is already something republican leaders are saying it is a win. in terms of what is the major hold up of the omnibus, extraneous provisions that the leadership are still trying to jam in there. in particular, the safe banking app which is a high priority for senator schumer which will prohibit from -- federal regulators of cannabis -- from penalizing financial institutions that do business with legitimate cannabis businesses. it is something mcconnell blocked from being included in the ndaa.

as you noted there has not been a official announcement of the numbers. lead the way it works is you do not unveil the bill until rick 40 pass it because you do not want to provide the opponents anytime to whip up more opposition. i think the bill is largely agreed to. it is just a matter of logistics . you do not want to unveil this a day to soon -- too soon. host: when will they see the text of this massive bill? guest: i would guess on tuesday. i am just guessing. as mcconnell has set a hard deadline of the toy second edges -- which is tuesday.

if thursday at midnight is your deadline to get this passed the senate you would think you would have to unveil it tuesday evening. that is just a guess. host: the headline at theill, the government shutdown averted as senate passes spending bill. this spending bill seems to be similar train people attach cars to. the one thing that comes to mind for example to private government employees from having tiktok on their device.

guest: that popped out of nowhere to been government employees -- from having tiktok on their government phones -- ban government employees from having tiktok on their phones. the information is going to the chinese government and conservatives and some democrats see it as a serious security risk. marco rubio has called for banning tiktok altogether. he is a senior republican and now mark warner is not willing to go quite that far but he also expressed concerns yesterday.

so banning of tiktok is ahead on legislation. some of the biggest ones, submental funding for ukraine -- supplemental funding for ukraine. in the other big item is the electoral count act which attempts to address what happened on january 6th. it will clarify the role of the vice president that they cannot overturn the results of the election. it also sets up a fast-track judicial review if there are complaints. there will be riders attached to the omnibus. there has been talk of including

extenders of tax policy or adding trade provisions or adjustments. we are all waiting to see what will be in the package next week and there will not be a lot of time to review. is expected to go to the said first and then the house. host: you can follow his reporting at the hill.com. i appreciate you being up early with us this morning. on the phone lines. republicans, (202) 748-8001. democrats, (202) 748-8000. for all others, (202) 748-8002. joe in northern georgia,

republican. caller: good morning, i love c-span. i've been watching for years. i just have to say, there's too pending in washington. i think r mccormick will someday be elected president united states. he wil the fight to cut spending and that is what we have got to do. i think that will be done with the republican congress. c-span does a super job. i love your network. keep up the great job for the taxpayers. host miami, florida. call good morning. i appreciate you listening to my question. regarding the resolution, with

interest rates going up and ming more expensive does the resolution in terms of funding deal with finanhe interest part of that? 3 trillion of debt. host: thank you for that. james on the democrats line in newark, new jersey. caller: i am not a democrat. i am independent. your city has 1.5 million people living with less water etc. the

appellations have four people. all of this spending on things that is not necessary. for people that need help it is stupid. host: mike on the republican line. patterson, new jersey. caller: good morning everybody. i believe we are spending too much. i just saw the three things that they passed. do them is for money. they are not even part of nato they are not even going to win.

they are killing people. i don't understand why they keep going. because of the ulterior motives of this were being what it is -- war being what it is. and we have an open border which means our government is opposing american people. they are against us and what to change america. why is the border wide open? because they don't love americans. i wish joe biden would get a head on his shoulder because we are losing america. you see the flux of people moving in. it is not for america and the american people. host: in the washington times, president that insists united -- citizens united. he writes another holiday season

is among us and they have mismanaged their way into a crisis. and responsible omnibus -- and and irresponsible omnibus. forget that there will be time for meaningful debate. forget that it is being done behind closed doors, just vote for, they say. there -- in a post covid-19 world it is imperative our country gets back to a transparent appropriations process. on the floor of the u.s. senate utah senator talking about what

was rejected last night. calling 48 cut spending. here is mike lee. >> we have been through this also see her after year. i have been here 12 years. it seems more often than not we are in a similar circumstance. two days away from christmas and we are being asked to move the deadline for the expiration for government funding leading to a shutdown. today we are asked to move it to the day before christmas eve. obviously we need to keep the government funded. we don't want to shut down and no one wants to shut up. it will be bad for at this time of year people who rely on the government for a paycheck for this or that program. we all feel the weight of that. we also feel the weight as we approach christmas of wanting to

be able to make good on our promises to our families and spend holidays with them rather than in washington. every year there seems to be people that want to make spending decisions wrapped into one spending bill. they are often wrapped into one spinning package in then hold off until a day or two sometimes just hours before it is about to shut up. that is bad magic. that is when the twin threat of sacrificing christmas and the shutdown operate like paired scissor braids. that task involves convincing senators to vote for bill 3000

plus pages long likely this year containing 7500 or so -- a bill that does not exist without ever having seen it. we all know this is wrong and a corrupt way to run a government. this is a corrupt process. it brings about all kinds of special interest giveaways. in the absence of the light of day they passed with the threat of a government shutdown were canceling christmas -- were--or canceling christmas. that is why my amendment is simple. gives us the flexibility to make these decisions not under duress . to make them with clarity of mind without the dual threat of the shutdown and cancellation of christmas.

host: it would have pushed the short-term spending bill into march of 2023. it failed last night. instead they passed a short-term bill for one more week until next friday. a covered spending for all of fiscal year 2023. their final deadline on this is next friday in the u.s. senate. back to the piece about the scores possibility, he says it is malpractice that these multitrillion dollar spending negotiations take place with complete disregard for the $31 trillion national debt. as taxpayers are struggling with the most expensive christmas ever republicans must say no to this democrat driven fiscal literacy. comments on twitter.

this one, we will come back to that. just remind you of our phone lines. republicans, (202) 748-8001. democrats, (202) 748-8000. for all others, (202) 748-8002. let's go to al in waterton, tennessee. independent line. caller: comments and suggestions. we have decades of strategy. mainly democratic but republican too. we just had an election. if their source of financial survival is the government itself then you want these bills passed. you had them passed on time every time. that brings me to a suggestion. you have republicans, democrats,

and independent calling lines. you will get a complete different profile if you have two numbers. one is if the government provides for your financial you have one number and another number is if you pay for your own way and another way. that is another calling number. the classic case of republican, democrat, independent will not reveal what needs to be revealed in this regard. host: sure, that is an interesting way to divide it. a good suggestion. let's go to lou in florida, democrats line. caller: i have a,. --a comment. we are concerned about debt. we seem to overlook the trillions of dollars of tax

revenue that has simply disappeared. $8 trillion this year in total. that is all i have to say. host: david is up next in san francisco. democratic line. caller: i have studied the economics and up and history to realize that the techniques of the old currency speculators are at play here. the republicans pretend to be thrifty but in fact they are basically trying to ruin the american economy so that currency speculators can cash in. their pretense is backed up. they pretend to be fiscal conservatives where they will ruin the repetition america so the currency falls in the old days. they will pretend to be christians when they basically

divide the old parables about jesus and how to manage money. that you don't buried in the ground and you keep in circulation so it can be increased. i see them as saboteurs and that they have no desire to be patriots. they are basically trying to cash in on the collapse of the nation. host: how does that, when they are in charge next year of the house. they have to get some sort of spending measure to fund fiscal year after. how does that happen? caller: i don't think they will do anything that is actually an investment. if you look at the past 15 years the republican party has refused to do infrastructure spending.

the infrastructure helps our lives, the levees on the rivers, the airports, the beaches, the roads and bridges. all of the schools and libraries and universities that have funded and make our lives better , but they have refused to take part in the investments in our property. just maintenance. not even the brand-new stuff. if you are asking me do i expect them to finally get around to developing an introductory bill that will take care of america? no. they basically do the rotor book on disaster economics where they will allow a thing to fall apart and then privatize it. they will sell the schools to betsy devos. they will sell the universities to trump university. they will sell the roads and

bridges to toll roads. they have no desire to invest in america and to diminish the american economy. they are ruining our reputation at this moment i have a a refusal to think of long-term spending. nobody would want to invest in america except for scoundrels who will bite cheap at tax option. host: go to johnny in missouri. democrats line. caller: i wonder why they did those reversal tax breaks gave the corporations. that would give us more money to spend for the debt. and then the republicans always vote for medical insurance for themselves but they don't think about the people or contingencies. that is all i have to say. host: an issue related to taxes

came up in a proposed amendment by rick scott to cut the funding of the irs. here's a look from the senate floor. >> mr. president. everyone in this chamber spoke about the pain americans are feeling due to inflation. shocking demand, when they approved $70 billion. that means more on families and small businesses just as they struggle to get by. what is worse is that the biden administration is changing standards to begin tracking financials to things like cash out, benbow and paypal --cash app, venmo, and paypal. i urge americans to protect.

host: the senate approving a policy bill and approving a short-term spending bill to fund the federal government through next friday as they work out the final omnibus spending measure. we welcome your calls at (202) 748-8001 four republicans. (202) 748-8000 four democrats. and for others (202) 748-8002. on social media. dave in orlando florida, both the bill and worry about it later. republicans will be in congress. you cannot let the government shutdown. mike from new york says it seems the people who are complaining about the process of the people who can change the process. and d.c. says it is impossible to find fiscal responsibility in congress. this look at the compensation packages they look that's they gave themselves. have no say in the matter. look at the all incumbency --

incumbency -- encompassing. let's hear from richard on the independent line. caller: it is a joke. they should've had this done by october. it was in charge of republicans, democrats? all they want is give me give me give me. the corporations. people can even see it. they don't want to work. we need a dictatorship.

host: in wyoming, ruben on the republican line. caller: it is terrible how they want to do this with irs agents instead of dealing with the gratian issue. terrible, all of the spending. let's compare the spending. democrats outspend. terrible. thank you. host: he mentions the migration issues. from the wall street journal, migrants search overwhelm el paso. migration authorities continued to release immigrants by the thousands. local charities are near a breaking point in the city. large group of migrants including a contingent of nicaraguans who pass the border on saturday has streamed across the rio grande.

and roughly 1700 migrants were released according to the data from the city of capasso. -- el paso. >> 30 expect the and may be a factor. federal authorities have warned that it could and at least initially lead to significant border crossing. a federal judge has ordered the biden administration to stop expelling migrants under the law but summer 21st. from low, maryland. the independent line. caller: where to begin?

i'm a military vet. did not really pay had to to politics. my dad was good at keeping that out of the house. a simple man. my four brothers and i via himself. -- by himself. right listen to your conversation and writing me an episode of the substance --sim psons. he's running around trying to finish his taxes. that is what it reminded me of, what is going on with this bill. what they are trying to do is kind of ridiculous. everything is all about money for this country. what i'm seeing in the last three years is just embarrassing.

it is all corruption and money politics. we go to work we go home we see her skins and repeat. these guys are missing stuff up. -- messick stuff up. it is all about money. host: did these annual spending fights bring a certain amount of uncertainty into your year ahead? that military pay raises would go through for example? caller: as a military vet, the way i grew up, nothing was really different to me.

the only difference i noticed was every four years my paycheck would be smaller or bigger. politics was a bunch of stuff i did not want to get into. and now i see why i wish i never pay attention to. they just bicker back-and-forth and never take care of the people. we go to work and we die. we pay taxes and they do not want to take care of it. the big guys all observers have all the money. -- upstairs have the money. people want to believe what they want to believe and the world goes on. host: thank you for your call this morning. we will go to sarah in michigan, republican line. caller: i will just say to america. if you notice this is a china

initiative. our government if you want to call it a government keeps telling us how china is an and then me -- enemy. they are not an enemy. our country has been sold off and it is unfortunate. and you don't have to have a civil war. all you have to do is on fund them. if they want collapse then let's do it. let's see where they will go then because then you will see where you really go on. you do not have leaders per you have civil servants. they are hyder -- hired by us. they are supposed to be providing services because we pay taxes. they give excuses everyday. the media is propaganda-ing you with tactics. they are so desperate in the media that they are bringing

back kennedy. john f. kennedy is dead. america does not care about the bomber. these diversions are not working sir. you are not selling your future. ev's are rolling computers. the banks are trying to force you to do things. this is something that again give people want. --a gang of people want. bringing up india was always the plan. host: going to san diego. patrick, democrats line. caller: yes hi good morning. i just wanted to say another couple of things. about loans. they are grants to colleges.

it is the department of education that does not qualify the armor on the front end. i believe they have no right to bankruptcy on the backend. i wish you a happy holidays and merry christmas. go see loan justice. host: from the washington post, and people as he prepares for her exit at her work will endure the opinion. the speaker held what could be her final news conference on capitol hill yesterday and was asked about what she thinks legacy may be.

>> nothing compares to the affordable care act and expanding health care to tens of billions of more americans and families having better benefits and lower costs. with no pre-existing conditions risking their access and time limit. that was essential because it is a health issue. it is an economic issue and financial health issue. it is a value issue for our country. that's to me was the highlight. the fact that it took inside outside mobilization as mentioned with the lgbtq issues was demonstrated also. and when our guest spoke about

what meant to her to have a child with disabilities. $3 million within the first six month of her life but with the knowledge of the other care and she would be charged with a pre-existing condition. so what we do together as a country, we had 10,000 with those lobbyists and that is what she was resenting. 10,000 events in the country in support of saving the affordable care act. it was not only passed building up to it but saving it. that took a lot of my time. host: on the spending bill that passed in the u.s. senate last night the headline from roll call. one week stopgap clears as appropriators were to close out omnibus. they write that the senate on thursday clearly one week continuing resolution to keep the government funded through

december 23. as appropriations committee leader distributed final allocations to their dozens subcommittees for a sprawling omnibus package they plan to unveil monday afternoon. it cleared on a 71-19 vote in the senate. likely more support on the omnibus next week. that measure will start next week where it is to attach to a vehicle on tuesday. the chair expressed confidence that they will be able to clear the obvious once it comes back to her side of the capital. quote we are going to get omnibus next week. and i can't a quote for -- account for crazy things that come up. asking your thoughts. republicans, (202) 748-8001. democrats, (202) 748-8000. independents, (202) 748-8002.

your thoughts on the process of this yearly delay of passing the spending bill to the last week possible in the last week of the 117th congress as well. i'm obese is amazing how the perpetrators of our nations, largest medicare cheating case has the audacity to suggest we do not find the irs. and frank in the bend oregon, just think the taxpayer gets to pay for the democrat ages and their failed economy. in florida, kevin is next that. republican line. caller: host: mute your volume and go

ahead with the next question. caller: my question and concern is twofold -- threefold. i believe i have been wanting to have these irs agents and they will attack the no class and working people went they should be on corporate. and then the spending bill. for them to push it through right at christmas. a 3000 page document. imagine how much barrels are in it. you would think surely those bills would be observed prior. a couple weeks so they could have a proper debate. and then the border.

why are we such an open border? remind me of a story nbc news did a couple of months ago. in their progress and where they were carrying the banner of biden. -- in nicaragua they were carrying a banner of biden. three factors and three different opinions. i appreciate you listening and have a merry christmas. host: upper show your call. independent line is next. from louisville, kentucky. caller: the worst waste of taxpayer money i have ever seen. we have a prosecutor in northwest tennessee chasing people with a spy drone that

costs have a million dollars a day. it is a terrible waste of money. i just don't know how to help out. host: let's hear from edwin in newborn, north carolina on the democrats line. caller: the person that has been around the federal government for 40 years and retired, this has been going on for decades. i can't believe june and july of each year republicans and democrats can't get their asphalt together and get a spending bill passed on time. this one-week extension or two week extension looks so sad. that's all i have. host: washington georgia is next. republican line. caller: i am 90 years old and 40

years ago the democrats used to to be the greatest party that ever was. but now they have complete turnaround and if we don't get rid of it, we need to put john f. kennedy up from the dead to put this country back together. host: in those 40 years what you think changed in the democrats to where you are now i republican? caller: everything they gave away. you can give everything away. you have to work for what you get. they are killing the bank to all these regulations. host: jackie is up next on the democrats line. ime, florida.

caller: good morning america. merry christmas to you all. i would like to give america some food for thought. as we go and talk about all of this spend he and -- spending and money going here. i want you to think about this. this country is blessed and all of the resources and money is here. it is just the mismanagement and greed and selfishness. and i want to add, you member when barack obama was the president and he was psaki about programs -- talking about programs he was going to implement. and they were asking him how he was going to pay for this. and he said he had a finetooth, and 10 -- had gone to the pentagon and had found trillions of dollars that are just sitting there.

money that is not accounted for. this money -- country has enough money to take care of anyone and it and immigrants too. it is just that we are not managing right. we need to think about helping one another, loving one another. he call ourselves question -- christians. ask yourself, what would jesus do? try to do things he would do. i love you america and i am praying for us that we will get our act together and we can live in peace. thank you and have a blessed day everybody. if you want to send us a tax it is (202) 748-8003. a text from new york, publicans what major cuts in social security and medicare so they can continue to do cut taxes for corporate americans. don't be by their earnest concerns.

danny and boston, what else do republicans gain by banning tiktok? where does their concern about the first amendment come from? when it comes to the government banning entirely social media platforms is a completely about those concerns. i want to read you part of the daily news later available on capital l. punch bowl news, what may be ahead in the head -- coming weeks. they write this. other republicans will what against the omnibus although this may be a case of a vote no

but hope yes. they also say that pelosi is advocating for senator josh parlays bill banning tiktok. he added to the omnibus package. our guest talk about that as well and are --in our earlier conversation as well. another call from the independent line. caller: this bill they're going to pass, it is every cycle. we can't come together, we can't come together and it is continuous. they can come together when there is something they want to pass real quick to keep the

newspeople off of their back or keep from answering questions. if they wanted a gun-control bill, leave you me that thing would pass within 72 hours and it would be done. they don't want to pass a spending bill because they know the people will not stay on them like they do for all of these other bills that they want passed. and none of them knows how to say no. if i look at my budget and say i can't afford that, i tell myself know--no. host: do you think it is harder with a deadline? caller: no they do it on

purpose. that way they throw out a 3000 page bill out. nobody reads it. they are deciding it so they can hurry up and get out of town. host: let's hear from mike in west virginia. democrats line. caller: i am 77 and i got out of high school and was in the service for four years and i turned 21 and was still in the service and i got to vote. i voted for nixon because i did not know who to vote for. when i got out of the government i worked 33 years for the federal government and i went through a couple shutdowns. and guess what? there was one during the clinton administration. they keep about 5% to 8% that are essential in the rest gone. well three weeks, and update.

same thing in the trump administration, they all got paid. the government continues to operate. second thing about the irs, that is who i worked for. in the 87,000 employees, that will take five to 10 years. it is a big job to hire somebody. you have to have interviews and then you go on. 45,000 or more of those employees will be replacing people who return within the next five years. because of the cutbacks with the irs when i started we had 260,000 employees. now they are under 80. and those are being replaced with people because they are retiring. they will not be going after middle-class or poor people.

that is just another big joe. the government shuts down and everybody gets paid. it is just a congressional issue so they can get votes from somebody and keep everybody split and upset. host: a must have driven you crazy every year not knowing if you are going into work the next week or what. caller: working for the federal government is a fed -- pretty good job because you do not get laid off and things of that nature. and when there is a shut down, you can think about it. but you realize it will a few weeks because again, the federal government is the biggest employer of the united states of america. and when they let 90% of people go home, those people come back and they get paid.

it is just nothing but a political issue. host: thank you mike. we will go to harry in california. caller: hello. good morning. host: good morning. caller: merry christmas. host: merry christmas. caller: when it comes to the economy, i know the federal reserve and washington, d.c. it seems like they are only printing currency issues prior to 2017. the reason i'm saying that is because the united states has been operating on a plantation economy for quite a while. that is why this shutdown and funding and the tax, the

plantation economy set up, i just wanted to let you know. thank you. host: here's a comment from virginia via text, republicans are trying to get back to their fiscal conservative ideology until they have the presidency again. steve on twitter says how can republicans be physically sponsored but when they get major corporations major tax cuts. not to mention tax cuts for the richest 1%. funding deadlines again up against the deadline, when will our government start working together to plan the betterment of america. work together with real care to show us. and a in illinois says, i do not relish inking and verbalizing this but our congress is totally incompetent.

it is a bad idea to let democrats continue to destroy our economy. on twitter, is this exactly what families do when the bills have to pay? let's put it on the credit card and worry about it tomorrow. people works.com they write about another piece of this omnibus. the clock is ticking on a chance to fix the electoral count act. writing that the effort to reform it is on capitol hill but remains uncertain whether the bill which makes changes experts consider results of the integrity of future elections will be an act to before time runs out on democratic control. here's robert and fresno, california. democrat line. caller: thank you. i was wanting to talk about in

1998 ago got past that accepted loans and how that has affected me and america. i recently watched a documentary that shows how deadly that has been for student loans. and our youth today are struggling. there are a lot of forces coming against the spirit yet tiktok and all of these attacks and he's 18-year-olds getting loaded up on debt to pay for education and become good citizens.

i feel like they need to be passed. and need to be included in the bill. when the student loan payment comes back on it will be devastating for the economy. that is $2 trillion that could be spent in the economy to try to boosted up -- use it up. host: davis up next. independent in las vegas. caller: percival, all of those congressman make 100 $70,000 a

year and get benefits. second of all when the shutdown happens because of the republicans, they have a race. all those congressman, you don't take away from the people getting military checks and a social security print what you should do -- security. what they should do is -- i am trying to get my point out, i am sorry. what they should do, the congressman, they should not get their checks but all of them should because people on social security and medicare need them. do you understand? host: thank you. we will hear from greg in san antonio, texas on the democrat line. caller: good morning. i wanted to speak a bit about a government shutdown and respond to the gentleman who said that -- his word was a farce and that

everybody gets paid. that is not accurate. everybody in the government gets paid. back in 2013 when senator cruz orchestrated the government shutdown i was a government contractor and i was sent home without pay for three weeks. and three weeks with no pay, you could not take vacation because the company was not being paid so they did not want to incur additional costs and the number of senior people took a 50% pay cut and they never recoup that money. it is easy to say federal employees will be paid, and they will. but a number of them have to work without pay until the shutdown ends and that is a tremendous stress. and then according to a gao statement it cost the government $20,000 to shut the government down, so it is not without pain

to other people. host: in 2013, you were a contractor, did you get back pay? caller: no. it was a $6,000 loss, and after three weeks of staying home i was called back but you do not receive back pay at all. host: thank you for sharing. stan, staten island, new york. democrat line. caller: the bottom line is that this is beginning to become a farce. i am sick and tired of this, they cannot reach consensus. this one-week funding bill and i imagine that i am getting your retirement and going through this whole medicare thing to get that straightened out, and it is a joke and a half. the bottom line is that it is sad, you know what you do, bring back the c-span on crisis point, you had the book thing on orrin

hatch about how the legislators were able to come together and talk to each other and reach consensus and that look on tight that was written -- titans that was written on orrin hatch. that was excellent, and then that crisis port thing -- point thing a couple of years ago was really excellent because the bottom line is that nobody is talking and that is the problem. they do not want to talk to each other so we go to extremes time and time again. thank you very much. host: alex bolton in "the hill," "gop tempers flare as mccarthy pans o'connell's spendings strategy. the republican leader criticizing the omnibus spending plan and here is what kevin mccarthy had to say. [video clip] >> we have a bill that takes 12 appropriation bills and put some together and adds the baseline

somewhere about $100 billion. for christmas season, the talk of the majority who wants to put a small continuing resolution to bump all the numbers up two days before christmas, to try and vote on a package that they cannot read, written by two individuals who will not be here on spending for the entire government. the democrats have been in power, they have had the house, senate, and the presidency. they did not do their work but they should not jam us now. they should not jam the american public. we cannot afford it. we should not move on the terms as they are, should move further into the new year.

allow the american people what they said a month ago, to change washington as we know it today. we cannot afford to continue to spend the way that the democrats have. [end video clip] host: final thoughts on the spending process on capitol hill. on twitter, "they have to keep what is in the omnibus under wraps so they do not lose support for it. is it me or do something sound wrong with that? shouldn't they all know what it is -- what is in it before they vote on it?" "all the more reason for congress to pass the budget as americans are tired of being held hostage by politicians threatening national economic suicide." "i am ok with the one-week funding and i am hoping for a one-month bill next. what i would really like to see is not fund anything unless 50% of democrats and republicans supported with no extraneous -- extraneous attachments at all."

coming up next, we will try and make some sense out of the economic data and whether or not the u.s. is winning in the right against inflation and the potential recession. that conversation with mike conkle --konczal. next nick miroff an investigation into the surging fentanyl epidemic and the failures to stop it. ♪ >> there are a lot of places to get political information, but only at c-span you get it straight from the source. no matter where you are from or where you stand on the issues, c-span is america's network,

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be sure to watch all of the past hearings in their tity anytime online at c-span.org/januarysix. >> washington journal continues. host: we will spend the next 50 minutes or so talking about the state of the u.s. economy. we are joined by mike konczal, a macroeconomic analysis director at the roosevelt institute and michael strain, the economic policy studies director at the american enterprise institute, welcome to both of you, thanks you for being on the program. if we could get your thoughts, we are talking about the state of the economy. let us start with you mike, where do you view economic conditions in the u.s. especially with the new numbers out? guest: the labor market is going strong and unemployment relate -- remains below 4% and we are

adding jobs at a rapid clip and wage growth is strong. the most exciting news is that we had two consecutive months of inflation. in particular it is coming down in ways that people wanted it. we see things like automobiles and furniture in deflation particularly for used cars. housing has probably peaked, there are some things going on but the worst of it is behind us and core service is which -- people tend to worry that those could continue with high wage growth, has started to cool down. those were the three conditions that jay powell put out for wanting to see a pivot slower rate of high-growth and that is what we saw on wednesday. host: same question for you, where do things stand economically in the u.s.? >> i agree with that. i think we have had some good news on inflation. two months make a trend -- do

not make a trend but this is a good start for a trend and this is a good start towards lower inflation. i think it is. i disagree a little bit with mike's assertion that we are seeing really good news for core services. i think we might be. i am ready to declare victory on inflation being much less of a problem for goods and things like washers and dryers and microwaves and automobiles and things of that nature. i agree with him that it is good news about services, dining out, restaurants, personal care services and things of that nature, but we have seen some things in the past and i am worried that services inflation is going to remain a problem in the -- into 2023.

that matters because services inflation is what drives wages, and to the extent that wages are pushing up inflation or to the extent that they might be pushing up inflation, that is the place to look to keep an eye on. we are in good shape with goods and with housing, it is the services and the prices of services that concerns me. host: let me follow up on that with mike. you expressed some optimism on core services and michael strain defining what those are. where is the optimism that you are seeing and are you concerned about the potential pushing up of wage growth and being recessionary? inflation. guest: given that we knew that it would take some time, the past two months where the best that we could have.

we have had a couple of single months where it was a good number and that it was a bad number and at this time we were still reopening and trying to get prices under control and they were increasing at a rapid clip. services is a lot of things, energy, fuel prices, wages, a lot of transportation, things like medical. it is a lot of different things. wages is an important component of it. we have seen wage growth decelerate from high nominal rates. i am not ready to declare victory but i am thinking that the signs point towards optimism and if this continues there is a good taste -- good case for relaxing a lot more and real wage growth might increase and people might see wages in their pocket again and that would be a good place to move off of the panic road -- panic mode. host: those -- the wage growth

that we saw particularly during covid, for some industries, have they remained and continued for those industries and sectors? >> on average wages are growing 5%. that is pretty much what it has been for the past several months. you are seeing stronger wage growth among lower wage workers and among industries in the economy that employ workers who have relatively lower wages. i think that is because those are the services industries that we are talking about at least to a large extent. and so, i think this is a double-edged sword. the strength of the economy has led to high prices for consumers

and rising prices. at the same time the strength of the economy has led to a reduction in wage inequality, the gap between wages has been narrowing. and the strong economy has led to what he said in his opening remarks, a rapid labor market recovery. more than we typically do. we have seen almost a full recovery in the employment rate among workers and -- in their 20's to 30's, and early 50's. and a lot of good news as well. so, a hot economy really helps lower wage workers disproportionately, but the hot

economy, or one as hot as we have, also leads to price inflation that requires a monetary policy response. host: making sure we go out with the phone lines. republicans, 202-748-8000. democrats, 202-748-8000. and independents and all others, 202-748-8002. we are talking about the state of the u.s. economy and we have two experts to do that, michael strain with the american enterprise institute and mike konczal with the roosevelt institute as well. let me ask you, a front-page story of "the washington story" migrant shortfall hampers the economy. they say that "a shortfall of immigrants is hobbling the u.s. economy at a time where 10 million jobs remain unfilled and low-paying and physically demanding industries such as

hospitality, agriculture, construction, and health care." guest: it is a real issue, immigration numbers are down which sounds about the order. we should be a little careful to understand its impact. we know that workers would come here and work jobs and they would spend money that creates new job. so that might be ambiguous. we know that there are sectors that have had bottlenecks in transportation over the past two years that have hampered the recovering of their prices. we know that right now we want to expand the economy and it is exactly the moment of having a market of unemployment under 4% with a lot of job openings. that is a time when we want to bring more people into the labor force domestic and people from other countries who can provide important skills and expand productivity. host: your reaction to that story as well, the adding jobs that are -- at a pretty good clip.

we added 263,000 for november? >> we are adding jobs at a good clip. we are adding jobs at a faster rate than we need in order to keep up with the growth of the working age population. so as people age into their 20's and 30's they need to have jobs and we are definitely exceeding the number of jobs every month that we would need in order to absorb those new entrants. i think the post is exactly right. we need more workers, and we need more workers for a lot of reasons. we need more workers right now because at this stage in the business cycle, labor demand is still outpacing labor supply. so for the labor market to reach equilibrium we need more workers.

we need more workers all over the longer term for more reasons including the desire to grow the economy and the desire to advance broad-based prosperity. there are not enough nativeborn americans to push economic growth as far as we need it to go. and that means we have to turn to foreign-born workers and increase immigration. there is a lot of of debate about by how much and what types of workers do you let in and people can disagree about that. in my view we need more workers today to deal with the labor shortage that we are experiencing and over the longer term in order to advance economic growth when everything happening today is a memory. host: we have calls waiting and we will get to those momentarily and i would take to get both of you to react to the fed strategy

of raising interest rates with brief comments from jerome powell after the fed raised the interest rates .5% and then we will get your desk reef thoughts from each of you. [video clip] >> the inflation data received so far were -- so far in november and december show a reduction in price increases but it will take more evidence to bring confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path. price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods of services. russia's war against ukraine boosted prices for energy and food and boosted pressure on nation. the median projection for total pce inflation is 5.6% and falls 3.1% next year. 2.5%, 2024 and two point 1%, 2025.

participants see risks and inflation as weighted to the upside. [end video clip] guest: that was surprisingly hawkish given the two months of good news and the general trends. i think the federal reserve felt that it had under reacted and it wanted to react if not overreact this year. there are a lot of question marks about its plans and they communicate that the market should be expected to be more aggressive and the fed a little more aggressive. there was a good please -- peace on bloomberg how wall street is surprised given the news that the fed has updated its projections to have lower growth and higher unemployment and then it will go up a full percentage point, whether or not that is still in a technical recession, even as inflation numbers are coming in better than six months ago. i am a little surprised and disappointed by how hawkish it

was that i applauded moving down. host: your thoughts? >> this is an area where mike and i disagree a bit. you know, we have had two months of good news and that is great. if you made the yes, i would -- guess i would say that the worst is behind us but a big problem -- part of the reason why is because of aggression -- aggressive actions that the fed is taking even though we have had two months of good news. the rate of inflation is still roughly three times. when the fed communicates dovish signals what that does is leads to equity prices increasing. that eases financials and that

is something that happened over the fall. i think unfortunately the fed needs to communicate to markets that we have seen some good news, but we have a long way to go with inflation too high with two or three times above the target, and that the dead in you -- fed needs to continue to slow economic activity. host: we will get to konczal on some of the causes of inflation, a paper that came out from your organization, but let us hear from cap lien on the democrat -- excuse me, david, concord, north carolina. democrats line. caller: i am glad that i took mont -- that you took my call. i was listening to the inflation and passing a stopgap thing for

a week. we still have what 11 million jobs unopened, unfilled sense covid -- since covid and we are still paying people to stay home. and if you want to fight inflation you need to get people back to the jobs and working. as for me, i am 76 years old. i worked my whole life. and the government has not handed out to me when they said they would. i started my jobs, the government that you pay your taxes, you pay the fic and all and when you get to 65 we will take care of you. they lied to me. this is what i have paid since my time dealing with a federal government that will not hold their word. host: michael strain, to his

point about tenured payments to covid related -- covid related payments. is that still a factor. >> a number -- the american rescue plan which president biden signed into law in march of 2021 continued with previous bills and sending checks to households and continued with previous covid related laws in sending checks to households and increasing the generosity of unemployment benefits. in my view, those payments both to unemployed workers and to everybody in america did contribute to people not going to work as quickly as they would had. those payments have stopped. so that is not a problem in the labor market right now. you could argue that $2 trillion

of excess savings, household savings over and above what happened in the actions of the pandemic is still keeping people on the sidelines. that might be true, but i think that is a relatively minor issue right now. and the unemployment benefits have stopped. host: on the cares act, another government spending on covid, do you think that added to inflationary pressures? guest: i do not think it played a major role. if you look at things like supply chains and russia's invasion of ukraine and the spike in energy prices, to the extent they might've raised inflation up one or two percentage points and increased on the order of 3 million jobs and reduced unemployment when it still would be five or 6%. and this year it meant that we

are in a better situation to handle a global slowdown then places like europe who did less for school support and are facing greater recessions. even if the fed's recession comes to pass it will be milder than the rest of the world. i think it is an incredibly important wise investment. host: kathleen, indianola, mississippi. democrats line. you are on the air, go ahead. caller: everyone is saying that the fed is keeping interest rates getting higher. but you are telling a big lie in which everybody believes. yet live in indianola, mississippi, you do not live in arkansas, alabama.

we are the tribute states and we still do not have what we made. that is what happens when you cut everything to give to the rich and you take everything from the poor, what is left? tell me. host: we will let you go. what would you say that these interest rate hikes are affecting middle-class america dozens -- americans? guest: the primary effect is raising mortgage rates, that was a quick and most obvious way and it has raised the cost of people who were seeking out mortgages and those with adjustable rate mortgages. i think the more stable thing is that the goal from the federal reserve's point of view is to slow down the rate of spending and investment. it will be harder to find a new job and you would have slower wage growth. the hope is that that lowers

inflation but that is not the only cause and it is not clear that those pressures are the core causes. without also looking at rings like getting energy prices under control and the food trade up and going. getting goods and services back into reasonable lines and tackling the supply side, that isn't incomplete agenda. and if the fed continues on its current pace we will be in a real capacity. host: your thoughts on the path that the fed is on in terms of several months raising that interest rate. what are your concerns? >> this has definitely increased mortgage interest rates and that has been a huge part of what the fed has been doing, trying to cool down the housing market. we had housing prices growing at 20% the annual rate so we needed to slow down the housing sector and the fed is doing that.

another big effect has been massive declines in stock prices. the last time i looked the stock market was down 18% over the year. that is hurting the middle class and the upper-middle-class and the rich more than it is hurting lower income americans. as rate increases continue or the effect of sustained high levels of interest rates continue to filter through the economy, that i think will lead to layoffs and an increase in the unemployment rates. and they are you will see lower wage workers and households with lower incomes bear the brunt of the effect. so, right now i think that the middle class and up are experiencing most of the harm from this. but in 2023, i think that will

be more on lower wage workers and income households. host: in terms of housing it is a double-edged sword? if the interest rates go up housing prices come down somewhat but aren't we in a situation in this country where we need more houses being built? does this stifle the production of new housing in the u.s.? guest: it absolutely has. we have had a huge boom in construction over the past two years that has slowed dramatically. host: because of the hikes? guest: and also, there were some studies by the friends -- san francisco federal reserve and half of them are about working from home and people wanting to live at home. and that is an important development. a lot of places where housing is constrained in big cities where a lot of people move to get more

space to be able to work from home particularly more affluent household are living in places with not a lot of housing slack but they can build housing quicker. so part of it is demand from low interest rates and part of it is about an important change post-covid that the fed will stamp on. host: was there a comment you wanted to make on housing supply? >> i completely agree with that, and we have a significant imbalance, too much demand for housing and too little supply, that was true before the pandemic and it will continue after the pandemic. my pulse -- i think the policy exacerbated that paula -- that problem. but even with monetary policy attempting to cool off the market the long-term trend is here to stay for at least the next several years. host: lakeland, florida.

elijah on the independent line. go ahead. caller: i have three talking points. the first i guess, how come you all get out here and do not provide any power points of what jobs are? you have one million jobs but you are not able to provide clear data as into what company it is and. and even when you talk about individuals coming from out of the united states into the united states to work, how come they do not have to have the same educational levels as u.s. citizens which do not allow u.s. citizens to take those jobs. and i guess the other talking point is about the fed, raising or whatever.

you always put it on as housing, goods and services are going up, and the u.s. citizens -- i am trying to get it out here before you cut me off. the u.s. citizens are taking the hard part of trying to live within the united states. host: thank you for the call. several things. we will show the november job numbers, the unemployment rate pretty much stayed at 3.7% and we mention the jobs added at 263,000. a couple of things there. guest: so, i think it is interesting. one of the big concerns during the great recession and before was the idea that it was hard for workers to find jobs and to switch jobs and their jobs, it was called labor market dynamism

or not just having a job or a good wage but being able to find better jobs and we think it is important for productivity, growth, workers and their wage growth with their career ladders. that has really accelerated. so much so that i worry that it is too much, and there are too many job openings available. it is still hard for people to find jobs particularly people -- we checked -- we talked about lopsided wage growth and wage growth is growing at the bottom end of the distribution, people in service industries and with high school educations. people are having trouble to keep at it and find the opportunities because they will be there for a while. the fed has not stopped out the labor market just yet. >> i have agree -- i agree with that. there are a lot of opportunities and we see significant wage growth among middle wage workers

and businesses with lower wage workers. and we have seen a lot about motored mobility. -- upward mobility, workers who had a job that did not pay well, leave and go to another employer and get a big raise. that type of dynamic is certainly still possible to achieve, and it is something that workers should take advantage of. host: judy in indiana. republican line. caller: good morning. maybe i am confused or dense, but since biden became president , more than 6 million people have come into the country illegally. and you tell me we do not have enough migrant workers or immigrants. you did not say illegal. so my question is where in the world are these 6 million people working? what are they doing, sitting

around and watching us work? are they drawing money from the government? when i see them coming across the border they look like they are between 18 and 30, and they look very healthy. they are dressed well. i am under the impression that they are given a phone or they might also have a phone given to them. i am just confused. i have to work to make money and i pay taxes. if these people are working, are they working underground? are they working without paying taxes or into social security? are they just working cheaply to keep somebody in business? where are they and what are they doing? host: michael strain, you want to address that? >> we typically have immigrants coming into the united states, that has happened under president biden.

we really got down to zero during the pandemic. we are up from zero at this point. the question is not whether there are any integrated -- immigrants coming to work, the question is whether or not there are enough. one way to measure enough is to compare immigration levels to the trend in immigration prior to the pandemic. another way to measure enough is to simply look at sectors of the economy that rely on immigrants. if you look at agriculture, for example. i cannot talk to an agriculture business without them bringing up that they really need more immigrant workers and they have. so, no matter how you measure whether or not we have enough workers who are born abroad, do not. and we need more.

and that is not to say that we do not have any, but relative to what has happened if we would not have the pandemic, do not have enough and relative to current needs we do not have enough. host: i want to get your thoughts on a report, this headline from cnbc about the amount of people or number of people living paycheck-to-paycheck and they now say a share of americans rises to 63% with inflation eroding wage gains. "the number of americans living paycheck-to-paycheck is increasing and six-figure earners are feeling stressed spike from the previous month. guest: one is that inflation is real and particular for people in the middle income, the effects have lowered their wages and have negative real wages and that is an impact and inflation is a serious priority and policymakers are taking it seriously.

a variety of things including the american rescue plan, households have stronger savings than in years past. there other surveys and make a $400 payment on short notice and those numbers have gone up dramatically. so, in terms of fiscal security a lot of households are stronger than they have in because of the support that the biden administration gave them and the fact it means that they are not spending it which pushes against the idea that those are the primary tribute -- contributor. host: konczal mike konczal is the -- mike konczal is the director of economic policy at roseville institute and then michael strain's with the american enterprise institute. jerry, virginia. on the independent line. caller: i wanted to know isn't

like half the inflation that we are experiencing caused by corporations raising prices over the unit production and the costs of shipping them and all of that stuff? i saw a video and i think it was on c-span or youtube where there was a committee hearing and some guy had a study done to -- and found that 53% of inflation is caused by corporations using disaster capitalism to raise the price of their goods? host: let us start with you and point out that the roosevelt institute had a paper published the -- of the causes and responses of today's inflation? guest: the person that katie porter was talking to and i've

had neighbors talk about it so i feel like it is resonating. it is absolutely the case that a lot of inflation is reflected in corporate profit balance sheet. that is not a causal statement. but when you look at where a lot of elation and zap it is not workers' pockets but corporate balance sheets. is that too much demand, limited supply and corporate read? that is an empirical question. we have seen that individual firms have higher markups before the pandemic were able to raise more. i do not think it is the major majority because it is an important part of that are market structures have helped contribute to inflation. notably i saw that in 2021. i thought those margins would can paris -- would can press as more competition came online instead has increased further and certainly not declined.

so, i think in so much as we have to take a whole of government approach, the fed is asking with the inflicted -- inflation reduction act, there is a role for competition policy. host: what are you seeing at the american enterprise institute? >> i think that the causes of inflation are too much demand for goods and services relative to the economy's ability to meet the demand and then factors holding back the economy's ability to meet the demand. i think we want competitive markets and i agree with mike that our competition policy efforts need to be ramped up, but i think that is true regardless of the current situation and regardless of what

happens with inflation. it is in the interest of consumers if antitrust provisions to the law are enforced a little bit more aggressively than they have been. i do not get is a major contributor to the inflation we are having. i think it could be a good thing to look at. host: we really have not addressed it, but percentagewise how much of a factor is the war in ukraine? >> the war in ukraine is a big factor. if you look at the inflation we have experienced, we had a lot of inflation in 2021 prior to russia's invasion. i think that inflation was mostly driven by excessively strong economic demand, not entirely. if we had had normal levels of demand there were still a lot of issues with global supply chains

and issues with the supply of workers for the labor market that still would have led to inflation. and then of course russia invaded ukraine and that had a major impact on inflation, particularly for the price of energy, oil, and the price of other commodities. if you look at inflation over the last six months or so, you see oil prices have come down and some commodities prices have come down and there are various ways of trying to answer that question. but i think that my view is that the demand is still a major factor in the inflation that we are experiencing in the last six months. not the only factor, apply issues are real and problematic. so i guess i think it is both. host: and what happened in february of this year with the

invasion of ukraine in terms of inflation? guest: there are a lot of different inflation numbers. the one that is probably the most relevant for consumers, that contributed half of the inflation, energy and food crisis -- prices. a lot of the economists can strip out economy -- energy and gas prices but when you look at it more narrowly although on some things like airline prices you saw the rise and fall. for economists and things at they can put it out of their minds and look at narrow categories that tell us more about wage pressures and supply chains. but for everyday people it has played a very important role. host: lucy, republican line. in new york. caller: on one hand you say if there is a recession people will lose jobs and say we need all of

these immigrants because we do not have enough labor. i do not understand that. also the kind of labor we need is skilled labor. like in canada they see what kind of skills they have so that they can add to the economy. how do all of these unskilled immigrants, cross the border is not going to be helpful? i can tell you what they do. the men go to construction sites, they work and then the women stage motor vehicle accidents and then they sue the insurance companies and that is what is going on with the labor -- illegal immigrants. host: to the previous points, what is your response? guest: i think if the worry is that immigrants are undermining low skilled american workers i do not thanks you see that in the jobs numbers. i think it is a very good time

if you wanted to work and services, leisure and hospitality, wage growth is 10%, very high numbers pending on what you are looking at. the big thing is that a lot of workers who were here in 2019 moved into higher productivity and higher wage jobs and goods and services, transportation, and warehousing. there has been upgrading. there is a lot of work still to be done in services. so we would love for more americans to come off of the sidelines and hopefully that is happening. but there is still a vast gap between what we need to do and the workforce available. host: joseph and new york on -- oh, joseph, there you are. i will try that one more time. i will get it right eventually. caller: yes, this is addressed to mike. what did we have before

macroeconomics and -- microeconomics and when did microeconomics take into effect? is there a school for that economics? guest: there are a lot of resources online to learn more about macro and micro economics, and it is interesting. obviously economists get a lot of things wrong. they got the financial crisis wrong although i think that the discourse around what has been happening is strong. people have worked hard to understand what is happening. and even though there is a lot of disagreement and for good reason, the script and the data we get from government agencies based on microeconomic data, at times i find myself blown away by the high quality services. host: johnstown, pennsylvania, independent line. caller: good morning.

i have several points to make but some of the previous callers made them for me. i believe that there is some gouging going on, more so than the economists want to give credit. for instance i.e. gluten-free bread, that is a small market, but the price of gluten bread is up 40%. and i just do not understand why with the cost of transportation dropping. if prices should drop back why haven't they done so? another point to talk about the immigrants and drug issue, this goes back to supply and demand. if there was not a demand for drugs there would be no drugs in this country. so they ought to talk about the supplied side, people bringing it in, but why aren't we addressing the demand side? host: we will be talking about

the crisis with our guest in our next segment, what is your response to the question about prices bouncing back and falling back down to some previous levels, any indication of that happening? guest: it will certainly happen for some goods and services. we saw last month that on average, look at goods prices the inflation was negative. and so not only did we seedis inflation where the rates came down we actually saw deflation where the rate of inflation was negative. i do not think that will happen for every good and service or even for most. what is most important is that the overall rate of an elation return to something close to the target. in any given month, some prices go up by 10 times as much as the

fed's target and some prices fall so you will see that kind of thing happening if you look beneath the hood of the inflation numbers. host: on retail sales, the black friday sales was not totally expected. on a headline from reuters " labor market still tight" and in general how retail sales are doing and why should we pay attention? guest: we could have a soft recovery where inflation comes down without unemployment or a recession and the way we do that if -- as if consumers keep spending, it is the divergent of how upset people are and how people are spending and normally dale's -- normally those are still connected. the fact that consumers are still spending even as housing

investments fall off, there is a happiness people find it being able to keep the economy going with spending down and with some of the savings. host: they are spending, their credit card debt is up. guest: some of it as a reverse in the trend and there is so much savings that people are able to pay down debts and refinance into better conditions. so, household balance sheets on the whole are very strong. host: david, st. petersburg, florida. good morning. caller: how are you doing this morning? you know, mike i totally envy you for the job. it must be tough the job that you do. i can tell you this, i can sum it all up. i know that over two years ago the economy was doing great, we were doing really good. and since joe biden has taken

office the economy has tanked. and there is no other excuse for it other than the fact that joe biden has done the things he has done to our energy, with the open borders and all -- we are spending millions of dollars for people to come into the country and we have to pay for that. and it is good for the labor, they are good, hard-working people. i am not going to say anything bad about the aliens coming into this country. but, let us call it the way it is, it is joe biden's fault. host: i will give you both a chance to respond, the biden versus the trump economy. michael, your thoughts? >> i think that the major thing that president biden has done with respect to the issues we

have been discussion -- discussing was the american rescue plan and i think that that contributed significantly to the consumer price inflation that we have had. it has become very troubling and it is leading the fed to slow the economy down and will probably end up the fed to actually -- accidentally cause a recession in 2023. the flipside of the american rescue plan is that it had a very -- it led to a very strong labor market recovery and we put people back to work very quickly. we saw credit rates increase quickly. we were covered all the jobs we lost during the pandemic very quickly. if we had had a better divide and smaller stimulus in early 2021, we could have had a lot of the good things from the

american rescue plan without inflation being nearly as troubling as it has been. so i think that there were good aspects to some of the angst that president biden has done and bad aspects to some of the things that president biden has done. host: mike. guest: i on -- i recall an employment being 15%. if we want to do straight causality. whoever is elected president would have to deal with the reopening and three trends that really contribute to inflation, the shift from services to goods which overwhelm supplies chain -- supply chains and caused prices to jump in goods while not decreasing in services. i think that would have happened whether or not president biden would have passed his plan or reelected. long covid and some of the difficulties in disability and of course russia's invasion of ukraine. those things played a huge role in inflation. given that the american rescue

plan, if you compare him to other countries like canada or the u.k., even before later this year our country was growing faster and stronger and projected to grow faster and stronger and those other countries had the same inflation we did even independent of their energy prices. the american rescue plan put us in a particularly good spot to survive the recovery. host: debbie in maine. independent line. caller: good morning. with the economy it is like, i am 67 and on social security and i have to balance my budget. washington does not do it. the funny thing is is that when congressmen get to washington they build their egos and bank accounts and they are not held accountable, so with biden, what has he done? he is a demented president, run

by the progressives and nobody gets that. all the democrats out there are spoonfed with what they want you to hear, because nobody listens to anybody else except the media and the journalists that do not tell the truth. host: before we wrap up i want to ask each of you and i might have heard it from you, but you can tell us your thoughts or predictions on when we see a recession likely in the united states in 2023. michael strain first. >> i think we well. if we did not have a recession in 2023i would not be shocked. i do not think it is a sure thing, but i think the sare larger than -- the odds are larger. but i expect it will be relatively mild and relatively short-lived. i think we are very concerned

about a recession because we think of what happened in 2008, but i do not think it will be that bad. guest: i think there is a lot of room for inflation to come down instead of the five or 6% or something at the 3% which is not where the fed once2%, but it wos a lot better off and at that point it is a question of how hard that wants to push for an arbitrary number. other countries have wider targets and do just as good as us if not better. host: is the u.k. currently in a recession? guest: i have no. -- i don't know. host: thanks to both of you for being here and sharing your insight with our audience. there is more on the program ahead on washington journal.

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continues. host: joining us next is nick miroff who covers the department of homeland security for the washington post, one of several reporters on a major investigative story the post is running. the piece is called cartel rx. fentanyl's deadly search. 170,000 died of drug overdoses in 2021. what was behind the team of yours investigating this story and how long did it take you to get it ready for publication? guest: the statistic you just read was what drove us to want to dig into this and find out what was going on. when i saw more than 100,000 people were dying a year from drug overdoses and that was the highest total ever, it just seems like something people were not paying close attention to. we were coming out of the pandemic.

we were aware this trend was going on, that fentanyl had spread, that it had deepened the opioid crisis in the united states, but we wanted to understand it and explained it and tell the story to the people who are affected by it. our team came together. it was reporters here and in mexico working with photographers, videographers, graphic artists, designers, and we work on this for the whole year. very intensely the last few months to bring it to print. host: i will point to a very in-depth story at washington post.com, lots of important video there as well. you are one of the half-dozen reporters writing this piece. in your writing, it has been pointed out that going back to the bush administration, mistakes were made in terms of

dealing with the drug trade across the u.s.-mexico border. what are some of the key mistakes you see that have been made over the years? guest: when something this big it is too easy to blame it on one administration or one failure. what we found is this accumulation of mistakes and errors that have led to this point and it has been administrations of both parties and they invoke multiple institutions. the big thing is when confronted with the most lethal narcotics crisis in american history, a lot of the institutions that were created to manage and confront something like this have fallen down. that includes the dea, which has gone through five acting temporary leaders between 2015 and 2021, when this fentanyl surge was going on.

the last administration spent billions on a border wall that does not do anything to stop fentanyl trafficking because the majority of the fentanyl is coming through legal points of entry. we do not have the scanning technology that would help u.s. customs and border protection to detect this illegal fentanyl production. there have been plans, but those are years behind. it includes the white house drugs are -- the white house drug czar that the t administration was primed to aluminate in the obama administration removed from the

cabinet and our health and human services. we have an inability to understand how many people are dying from no, how many people are using it -- how many people are dying from fentanyl, how many people are using it, how to stop it, and the statistics are staggering. host: our phone lines are open for your questions and comments with nick miroff. (202) 748-8000 for you in the eastern and central time zones. (202) 748-8001 mountain and pacific, and if you and your family have been impacted by the fentanyl crisis, the line is (202) 748-8002. we would be very interested in hearing from you. explain how the crackdown on pharmaceutical opioids led to a spike in the production and availability of fentanyl in the u.s.. guest: many of your viewers will

remember, this is not the beginning of the opioid crisis in the united states. it was the opioid manufacturers a generation ago that got millions of americans hooked on prescription painkillers. when the dea and other law enforcement finally did crackdown, it left a vacuum in the market that that was something the mexican drug trafficking organizations recognized as a lucrative opportunity and they fill that vacuum first with illegal heroin and then they transition into sentinel and they soon realized -- into sentinel and they soon realized that by importing chemicals and setting up clandestine laboratories they could make it illegal fentanyl abundantly and with much greater ease and fewer logistical hassles then having to pay farmers and control land and smuggle something bulkier than

fentanyl. fentanyl is extremely potent, compact, easy to smuggle, and as a result very cheap. one of the most surprising things we found in reporting this is let's say a generation ago when prescription pills were being diverged onto the streets and used by opioid addicts, they were priced at one dollar a milligram. an oxycontin pill would sell for about $30 a pill. pretty expensive. a fake oxycodone pill that is really a fentanyl pill made by mexican trafficking organizations cells on the streets of phoenix or los angeles for just four dollars or five dollars. the price of being addicted has gone way down, even as the potency of these opioids has increased as well as their lethality. host: i want to ask you about

the m 30, the fake opioid pill. is there any evidence that users are aware that these things are really deadly? there is a potential for them to have an overdose is pretty strong, it would not be atypical opioid pill of that strength. it is much stronger. guest: i am glad you brought up the m 30. the m 30 was manufactured by one of the big u.s. opioid manufacturers and the cartels are making fake m 30's called blues on the street, and they look completely identical to the actual prescription pills, except instead of being oxycodone pills, they are illegal fentanyl pills. the dosage that some of the cartels have been able to perfect is pretty consistent.

someone buying those on the streets is playing with their life because there is always the chance it contains an even greater dosage of fentanyl and a lethal dosage. there are two larger groups of people who are dying in this epidemic, and the first is people with opioid addictions who are taking too much for whose tolerance has gone down, and they suddenly go back and try to take the same amount, and they are dying, but also people with no opioid tolerance who do not know they are taking fentanyl, like these five friends we wrote about today in the washington post who were partying in an apartment in colorado. they thought they were sharing cocaine but the cocaine was laced with fentanyl. they did not have any opioid tolerance and they were all

killed in this tragic event. it is an extremely deadly drug. we are seeing record numbers of americans die as a result. host: you touched on the ports of entry. here is the story about the colorado deaths. they talk about the accessibility to major freeways and geography plays an important role. there is also a piece and you are serious about the huge spike in a town like st. george, utah. >> one of the things we found that almost all of the fentanyl in the united states come through the ports of entry, the official border crossings in the san diego area, or southern arizona. from there it goes to stash houses in las vegas, los angeles, and then spreads across the country. new england, appalachia are some of the hardest hit areas.

you find little trafficking cells all over the country. one of our stories takes readers to st. george, utah, where the dea filled a major case and busted a fentanyl trafficker working with the cartel in mexico. these drug cartels are illegal pharmaceutical companies at this point. they are bringing chemicals from asia into mexico, they are manufacturing pills, they have logistics networks across north america, they smuggle the drugs across the country and distribute them to hubs around the united states, just the way any large profit open business would do. host: i want to ask you about the response of the mexican government but we have calls waiting. let's get to those. we go to kathy on our line for those impacted by the crisis. good morning. caller: good morning.

this is all tragic with the fentanyl killing all of these people from the border. i think biden needs to be impeached over all of this. it is their fault. it needs to come out more. it is sad. host: what steps has the biden administration taken to address this issue in particular? guest: before i get to that i want to correct a misperception that i frequently hear that suggest record numbers of migrants who are crossing the border are bringing fentanyl. the truth is that is not accurate. while there are record numbers of migrants coming into the country over the last two years, all of this illegal fentanyl is being smuggled by trafficking organizations and they hide it in vehicles and cars and commercial trucks and they drive

it the official ports of entry. it is two separate phenomenon that are both created major challenges forhe department of homeland security. you ask what the biden administration is doing. the new dea administrator who was confirmed last year has placed more focus on fentanyl than any predecessor, and the agency says it has redoubled its efforts to go after the cartels, to dismantle their financial networks. they are making more cases. their prosecutions are up. they are fighting against a formidable enemy we are deep into this crisis. we did not detect a lot of optimism. it does look like we will be with this for a while.

host: let's go to warren in florida. caller: i just have a statement to make. i went through surgery and they gave me five days of painkillers once i got out. you can get addicted in five days. the problem is they hated them out like candy and then all of a sudden they stop handing them out. people in pain go to the streets and that is how they get poisoned by that drug if it is mixed. the problem comes in is when you crackdown and sue everybody for this, when you created the problem, the system did come and everybody else is trying to get pain relief. guest: a similar sentiment expressed by -- host: a similar sentiment expressed by stephen on twitter sing the opioid

crisis was never addressed. people who need pain medication were cut off in the illegal opioids filled with fennel became a booming business in the u.s.. guest: that is right. the number of people who needed to continue getting opioids in order to fend off withdrawal symptoms is very large and they have turned to the street. on the streets you can find these extremely cheap fentanyl pills. the danger is these pills get more and more potent. one of the things we have seen is the average dose of fentanyl and one of these fake oxycodone pills, the blues, the average dose has gone from 1.3 milligrams to 2.2 milligrams, and that is a reflection of the nation's opioid tolerance going

up. the market is demanding stronger and stronger pills because so many people are building up a tolerance. that makes the baseline dosage a lethal dose for somebody who does not have an opioid tolerance. people who are addicted are demanding stronger and stronger dosages and people who do not know they are taking fentanyl or do not have a fennel tolerance are at greater risk of dying. host: let's hear from austin on the line for those affected by the fennel crisis. caller: i was going to say the same thing is that guy. my doctor was my drug dealer with the fentanyl. i have another twist on this. united states was in afghanistan for 20 years. this problem started about 20 years ago.

they never burned the poppy seeds. that is where fennel comes from. -- that is where fentanyl comes from. another spin on it. host: what is the origin of fentanyl? what was it originally intended for? guest: fentanyl is a powerful synthetic opioid. unlike heroin, fentanyl is made in a lab. it has legitimate medical usages. people may be familiar with fentanyl patches. doctors have always known it is very dangerous. if it is not administered by a physician in a controlled setting, the risk of death goes up.

one of the most astounding things about what has happened over the last few years is heroin has almost disappeared from u.s. streets. initially fentanyl was being added to heroin, but it is now replacing it in illegal drug markets. users who are not necessarily looking for fentanyl before are seeking out. there have been seizures of what they call rainbow fentanyl, the pills look almost like candy. one of the theories behind why the cartels are doing that as they are trying to signal these are fentanyl pills rather than fake oxycontin pills. host: i have heard stories that say in the past the drugs are manufactured by china, imported by the cartels in mexico. your reporting reveals the cartels have labs all across the southern border area, below the

southern border area. guest: that is right. in the initial stages of the fentanyl crisis most of the fentanyl was coming from china and coming through the mail in the united states for going to mexico, the cartels were buying it and trevor get across the border. over the past -- and trafficking it across the border. over the past several years, there was a crackdown in china, so now the cartels are bringing the chemicals from china but also india and other nations and their making it themselves. it is not that complicated. they can set up these labs in a storage unit in an apartment and they can crank out massive quantities of this stuff and then they obtain pill press

equipment and they get the fillers, like lactose or other fillers like that, and they make these pills and assemble their loads and smuggle them into the united states. host: let's hear from wesley in miami, florida. good morning. caller: thank you for taking my call. for as long as i've lived we've always attacked the suppliers of illegal drugs as the culprits, yet we are the ones were buying it. it seems an additional solution would be to attack the demand side of it from federal, state, and local governments to try to educate kids as young as five years old all the way up the danger of this stuff because if the demand is there the suppliers will find a way. you can chase down the suppliers for as long as you want but they will still find a way.

if we do not have the demand you would not have the suppliers. host: any thoughts on that? guest: he makes a great point and that is something we heard over and over from the law enforcement and federal agents on the front lines of this. if americans were not buying drugs then we would not have this problem. they emphasize the importance of parents and teachers talking to their kids about the dangers of fentanyl and not buying these legal products from people mexican drug cartels. -- from evil mexican drug cartels. i will say only looking at demand is also an oversimplification because there is a way supplied contrived demand. when supplies -- way supplied can drive demand. when supply is so abundant it can take demand. a lot of drug dealers are taking this illegal fentanyl and using

it to lace amphetamines and cocaine and other illegal drugs to get their customers addicted, to boost the potency of the drugs they are selling to give them a commercial advantage in the marketplace. there is an effort to create new addicts with fentanyl being so cheap and so plentiful, it really facilitates that. host: you quote former drug czar john walters on the lack of information thenment has on the drug problem in the countrysaying "without hensive data the federal government is driving blind. this is like tracking the epidemic by visiting ries." he says " are not measuring what ing into the country in real time, we are not measuring what is happening with the health consequences. our drug control strategy is an embarrassment and does not begin

to propose way of reversing the problem." let's hear from leslie in hillsville, virginia. go ahead. caller: thank you for taking my call. i live in southwest virginia and have lived here my whole life. i am a health care worker. have been in the therapy industry for 30 years and i have watched this epidemic evolve. the other caller that said this has been going on for over 20 years is correct. this is not something that is just coming out now. i started out in my therapy career working with orthopedic patients and they were not prescribed these high level opioid medications for post surgery or moderate pain. now they are prescribing these things for just moderate pain for something that was designed for end of life treatment. for me personally, my best friend lost her son almost one

year ago to an accidental overdose from something that was laced with fentanyl. it is epidemic in my area. we are losing a generation of young people to this. i do not see things being done to take care of it. host: thanks for that, leslie. guest: thank you for your call. i remember going down to buchanan county in southwest virginia in 2007 when the prescription pill crisis was taking off. a lot of people in the community were struggling, trying to go to methadone clinics, trying to get off it. not getting the support and the resources they need. she points out that this is a problem that has been with us for a while. what is new is the potency and the legality and abundance of fentanyl -- and the lethality

and abundance of fentanyl. we did not get into the statistics beyond the annual death figure, but i want to point out fentanyl is the leading cause of death for americans between 18 and 49. it is killing more than gun violence, then suicides, and car accidents. this has come up on us really fast and it has gotten significantly worse during the pandemic. just since 2019 fatal overdoses from fentanyl in the united states are up 94%. in less than three years the number of people dying from this drop in the united states has doubled. host: we have a couple of minutes before the u.s. house comes in. we want to give you a chance to respond. one of your pieces in this series deals with the response of the mexican government. the headline is how the u.s.

lost a key ally in mexico as fentanyl took off. what is the current status of mexico and the united states in terms of mexico's efforts to stop the influx of fentanyl? guest: one of the key elements of this crisis is the u.s.-mexico security partnership fell apart around 2018 just as fentanyl was taking off and the cartels were making this transition from plant-based drugs like cocaine and heroin and marijuana into synthetics, may fennel and methamphetamine. for 10 years the u.s. mexico partnership was driven by an initiative, but by the time the current mexican president got into office, his new government declared that agreement dead and wanted to renegotiate a new one -- social programs, trying to

discourage young people from getting involved in drugs. it created a rift in that partnership and to this day u.s. agencies like the dea are still trying to re-accommodate themselves to this new reality. it has certainly limited their ability to operate in mexico and by many accounts it has strengthened mexican trafficking . host: nick miroff, hope we get more times with you. his reporting, cartel rx, fentanyl's deadly search. thank you for being with us. we take you to the house floor for a brief pro forma session.