don't be afraid to take risks. january 20, 2023.entries is for rules and tips on how to get started, visit our website at studentcam.org. >> he is national correspondent for nbc news. you see him often on campaigns and election nights in front of what the network calls the big board. he recently finished a seven-art podcast series called "the revolution," a story of how the republicans took over the house of representatives for the first time in 40 years. that happened in 1994 and was organized and leby former speaker of the house newt gingrich. steve kornacki on this episode

of footnotes+, available on the c-span avenue or wherever you get your podcasts. >> there are a lot of places to get political information, but only at c-span do you get it straight from the source. no matter where you are from, or where you stand on the issues, c-span is america's network, unfiltered, unbiased, word for word. if it happens here, or here, or anywhere that matters, america is watching on c-span, powered by cable. >> looking at the u.s. economy with mark zandi, he is with moody's analytics, he is their chief economist. welcome back to the program. moody's is and your role in it. guest: moody's analytics is part of the moody's corporation which includes the rating agency.

moody's analytics does work in providing support for a large number of companies and financial institutions around the world. the economy matters to these institutions. that is where i come in, helping these institutions understand where the economy is headed and the risks they face as part of the economy's performance. host: you put a look into where the economy is going to review developed a new term called slow-cession. can you describe that? guest: in my view, 2023 going into 2024 is going to be tough for the economy. it is not going to be easy. inflation is high. federal reserve is raising interest rates quickly to quell the wage and price pressures. that environment, the economy is going to struggle. i think we have a good chance of getting through the next year or so without a actual recession.

a recession is a broad-based across lots of industries persistent more than a few months, a few quarters, decline in economic activity. i do not think the are going to see that. we have a good chance of not seeing that. it will be slow, the economy is going to be soft. not a recession, a slow-cession. that better describes the path forward for the economy, in my view. host: one of the driving forces behind this idea of slow-cession? guest: the slowdown is clear. that is, ok, we got mailed to the pandemic, the russian invasion which caused oil prices, agricultural prices, food prices, commodity prices to jump. crated this high inflation we are suffering right now -- created this high inflation we are suffering through right now. the federal reserve, high inflation is not consistent with a well-functioning economy in the longer run. they are raising interest rates

to slow things down, cool things off, get job growth to something that will allow the inflationary pressures to abate. that is the slow part of the slow-cession. not recession, recession means you are going back, the economy is contracting and getting smaller. i do not think economy wide in an aggregate sense that is going to happen. a lot of risk here, obviously. a lot of things can go off the rails. i think we have a fighting chance with a little luck that nothing else goes wrong, and with reasonably good policymaking, debt policymaking by the fed, raising rates high enough, fast enough to bring in that inflation but not too high is best to push the economy into recession. that is the backdrop for this. one other thing that we can go to. the fundamentals of the economy, the things, the balance in the

economy that does the economy in during a recession or exacerbates a economic downturn are not evident today. generally speaking, leverage -- over a bill, the banking system is highly capitalized. the government is flush with cash. generally before a recession, you see imbalances. you do not see them at this point in time. it is not a recession, but a slow-cession. host: this is mark zandi joining us, if you want to ask him questions. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8002 for independents. if you want to text us your thoughts, (202) 748-8003. you talked about the fed, its attitude towards rates. we will see rates, maybe not as high this coming year. if that is the case, what does it reflect as far as the fed's confidence in what it is doing?

guest: the fed is going to raise rates more. they increased interest rates aggressively last year. it is hard to believe when you go back to this time last year, the federal funds rate target, the interest rate the federal serve controls, that was close to zero. now, it is sitting somewhere 4.5%. that is a big change in a short period of time. it is sort of signaling strongly that it will continue to raise rates early in 2023. investors in financial markets are expecting the fed to raise rates another half percentage point over the next couple of three months. by spring, the federal funds rate target which was at zero a year ago will be close to 5%. for context, best estimates of the interest rate consistent with not supporting the economy or not straining the economy is 2.5%. the rate we are going to in the

next few months is double that rate consistent with the policy that is neutral with respect to the economy. the fed is working hard to bring in that inflation. after that, it is hard to know what has to happen. what has to come in for the fed to stop raising interest rates. i think that is going to happen, the most likely scenario. if i am wrong and inflation continues to remain high and persistent, the fed will have to raise rates more later this year. higher rates are coming. it is a question of how much higher they are going to go in 2023. host: here is part of your analysis. you may have to explain it. coming downturn would he consistent with many indicators leading to recession, most notable is the deepen version of the treasury yield curve. can you explain that? guest: sure. economists rely on lots of

leading indicators to gauge whether we are going to go into a recession in the future. looking at history, identifying indicators, variables that historically have recessions. one of those very and prescient leading indicators is the shape of the -- the difference between the long-term interest rates, the 10-year treasury yield, and short-term interest rates, the federal funds rate. typically, long-term interest rates and the 10 year and short-term interest rates and federal fund rates part, there are points historically when it is so-called -- it so-called inverts. short rates raise above long rates. the federal reserve is raising rates aggressively as they have been the past year. net yield curve inverts, when the federal fund rate rises above the 10 year treasury curve in a consistent way, historically, we have had 12 recessions since world war ii. you can look at what happened in

those 12 recessions. you go back and look, typically, the yield curve inverts, short rates rise above long rates above -- about a year before recession hits. that 10 year treasury yield less than federal fund rates target inverted in december. if you were taking the yield curve literally and assuming it is a perfect guide, it would suggest recession by some point late this year. i can give you more technicals. i think there is reasons to be cautious about interpreting the yield curve. the literal interpretation would be, recession dead ahead. that is why a lot of economists, any people in financial markets inc. a recession is likely in 2023. host: you talked a lot about the federal reserve. if it had reacted sooner with

the economy, would results be different? guest: probably. they were slow. last time -- this time lester, interest rate was zero but federal reserve was becoming an issue. unemployment was climbing. i had -- a russian invasion of ukraine was not on the radar screen going back a little over a year ago. russia did not invade ukraine until february. in my view, that was a significant, global economic event. it caused oil prices to skyrocket. remember, go back to the summer of last year, june to be precise. we were paying five dollars nationwide for a gallon of regular unleaded, a all time record high. that directly goes back to the russian invasion, the sanctions we put on the russian oil, the british put on russian oil, the european union put on russian oil. that caused prices to jump.

the fed could not have predicted that or made policy based on that. yeah, if they had been more aggressive earlier on, probably the situation today would be less serious. we still have issues with inflation and recession risks will probably still be high. we probably would not be in as difficult of a spot. hard to be critical of the federal reserve given the uncertainties. i should also say, the pandemic -- hard to remember back, but this time lester, we were dealing with the omicron wave of the virus. that was doing damage to global supply chains, the job market, creating inflationary pressures. difficult to gauge how that would play out. i do not want to be too critical of the fed and their policy. host: first call for mark zandi is from california. rick on our line for democrats. go ahead.

caller: good morning. my question is, the republicons are talking about busting through the debt ceiling, not raising it. how will that affect my retirement, my pension and investments? guest: thank you for the question. it would be a cash profit to your investments, to your wealth. let me step back for a second to make this more clear. the debt limit is the limit on the amount of treasury debt that can be outstanding. we are now bumping up against that limit. if we hit the limit and the treasury runs out of cash it has in its bank accounts, it cannot issue more bonds -- treasury bonds to finance the government

spending and tax policy. someone is not going to get paid. the treasury cannot cut a check to somebody. it could be someone in the military, a social security recipient, bondholders. from you, you may have it in your pension plan to afford investors. middle eastern investors, japanese investors, chinese investors. if someone does not get paid, that is going to send a bomb throughout the global financial system. one of the bedrock principles of a well-functioning, global financial system, is the u.s. pays its debts on time so it is risk-free. if you buy a bond from the u.s. treasury, you are going to get your money back and interest no questions asked. if someone does not get paid because of the debt limit bridge, that blows that out of

the water, that confidence out of the water. investors will say, i am not sure i'm going to get paid. this is not risk-free. pay me more from this treasury to compensate for that risk. that means everything is going to be worth less. stocks will be worth less, bonds will be worth less. housing will be worth less, commercial risk -- commercial real estate, everything will be worth less. that goes to your retirement savings. it would be so catastrophic, it is hard to imagine -- the dysfunction we are observing in washington, that lawmakers would allow that to happen on that path. obviously, we have had a rising risk of content of difficulties we are observing in congress today. host: this is from texas, cameron, independent line. caller: hi, thanks for taking my call. i am a listener to the podcast. my question is, i have heard

some people talking about how, once we get through this initial bout of inflation, we could go back to a more normal relationship with inflation and interest rates because of on shoring and near shoring and labor shortages. i wanted to know what your thoughts are on that. guest: thank you. caller: thank you for listening to my podcast, inside economics is my podcast that we do every weekend. thank you for calling that out. there is a reasonable debate about where inflation is going to settle after this. clearly, the federal reserve is going to win the day, one way or another. they are going to raise interest rates high enough, long enough to get inflation back down. they have a target, they are calling for consumer price inflation, cpi inflation, the

inflation number most people focus on. they -- it is about 2.5%. we are about 7%, we are going to it another cpi number this week and it will probably show inflation continues to moderate. let's say six point 5% year-over-year consumer price inflation, the rate of price increase in goods and services we are purchasing the past year. we need to go from 6.5% to 2.5%. the fed is going to do whatever it takes, potentially pushing us into a recession, to get that done. once it occurs, probably not in 2023, but probably in 2024, there is a lot of crosscurrents, restraining inflation it is unclear where that will settle. my own sense is, cutting through those crosscurrents, the tailwinds, headwinds that are buffeting inflation going forward, the federal reserve is

going to get what it once. they are going to manage monetary policy, interest rates to calibrate the gross rates in the economy so that we get inflation that is close to their target. if it is 2.5%, they get 2.5%. maybe going forward having to battle more to keep inflation down. i think there are longer-term inflationary forces that might be strong tailwinds to inflation the fed will have to battle. one as you mentioned is the near shoring, re-shoring. because of the supply chain issues during the pandemic and the geopolitical issues between china and the u.s. right now, there is an effort by businesses to bring back supply chains closer to home in the u.s. and north america, mexico, canada. that means it is going to be more costly to produce those goods, that may add to inflation in the longer run. federal serve can calibrate monetary policy, interest rates to get the inflation rate they want. they will have to keep rates

higher if this broader inflationary forces are pushing on inflation. host: a lot of people called this program to take a look at inflation through the lens of desolation -- gasoline prices, food prices, the cost of eggs. how do you factor those into a economic picture, particularly those who do not follow economics like you? guest: the one thing most people focus on to gauge where inflation is and how big the cost of a gallon of regular unleaded, that is the litmus test for most people. it is clear why. for most people, you see that every single day. if you are driving to work or going to's cool -- going to school, going shopping. driving by your local gas station, looking at that price. good news there, one reason to be more optimistic that inflation is going to continue to come in and we can avoid a

recession, we are back down close to three dollars for a gallon of on -- of regular unleaded. at june of last year, the all-time high as a result of the russian invasion of ukraine and sanctions, we had five dollars on the nose, a record high. we are down to three dollars. three dollars is good. we were at three before russia began to invade, it became clear that russia would invade ukraine. i think it was perfect and everything well, we would be at $2.50. it continues to move lower. prices are going lower. a lot of crosscurrents here, the sanctions on russian oil are pushing up prices. we are seeing a week chinese economy because china consumes and commands a lot of oil.

that demand is down, weighing against oil prices. at home, we are getting more efficient. just to give you a sense of that, if you go before the pandemic, we as a nation were consuming 21 million barrels of oil a day, about a fifth of oil consumed across the globe. today, we are consuming about 20 million barrels a day. we have reduced our consumption of oil since before the pandemic by one million barrels a day. that is consequential and another reason why we are seeing downward pressure on oil and gasoline prices. that is the key price i think most people focus on. one other quick point, oil prices and tagged on diesel prices is critical to food prices. a big part of the cost of food, those eggs, milk, meat, vegetables, a lot of that is the cost of getting it from the

farm, the ranch to the store -- to the store shelf. if diesel prices are high, food prices are high. if diesel prices are starting to come in, a lot of risk of what is going on with oil prices. they can go back up quickly. for the moment, it feels good. three dollars a gallon feels like a good price. i think people are feeling better about inflation right now as a result. host: you did talk about jobs. december numbers came out last week, three .9% unemployment rate. what did you make of the numbers? guest: i thought they were very good. going back to that context of the fed wants to raise rates high enough to slow things down but not raise right -- raise rates so fast it undermines the economy, that jobs number was consistent with that effort. job growth is slowing definitively. if you go back a year ago, the economy was creating 600,000 jobs a month on average.

we are now seeing job growth as about half that, between 200000 and 250,000. if you look into the numbers like i do, you can count that down into the data and see the leading indicators of future job growth indicate that job growth will slow. it sounds weird to people, i am rooting for slow job growth. typically, people want jobs. right now, the economy is low unemployment. 50 year low, three point 5% unemployment rate. labor market is tight, a lot of businesses are having trouble finding qualified workers. that goes to the inflationary pressures. at this point in time where we are today, it is better if we see some slowing in jobs. we do not want to see job losses , significant increases in layoffs, but we want to see a moderation in jobs growth. that was the message and the jobs report, that is what is happening. we need to see more of it, but i will take it.

that is why the stock market, it had a good day last friday because stock investors interpreted the numbers like i did. host: this is brenda in washington state. democrats line. good morning. caller: good morning. two comments, one on inflation, one on interest rates. inflation with covid spending, where would we be if we had not helped people put food on the table and stay in their homes? second on interest rates, historically, i believe they are low. i feel for younger people, they do not know different. old folks know better. i can remember in the 1990's, under 9%. after 9/11 when they were plummeting, they were kept artificially low for long. that is why i feel for the young folks, they do not know any different.

it is hard to get a home. older folks know better. thank you. guest: thank you. i am old, too. my hairline has receded a bit. you are right. the best interest rate to illustrate that is the mortgage rate, the 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate. that is sitting about 6.5%. for anyone who has been in the job market the past 15, 20 years, that feels high. if you go back a year ago when interest rates were at their low, you could get a 30 year straight mortgage loan for probably 2.5%. that was a record low. here we are now. it feels uncomfortable. it is a problem for potential homebuyers. when rates were very low, they

created a lot of demand for homes. that to stop house prices. here is a statistic for you. between -- the month before the pandemic hit to june of last year, which was the peak and house prices, they rose 40%. with that surge in house prices, combined that with the 6.5% mortgage rate, housing is not affordable. you get a mortgage at 6.5%, your mortgage payment is $800 more a month then it was about a year ago. that is for most people, it is not affordable. 6.5% feels uncomfortable, even though it is low by historical standards. you go back to the 1970's and 1980's, we were seeing mortgage rates in the double digits. it is much lower than that, but higher than people are used to. host: it was the national

association of realtors who put out that existing home sales dipped 7.7% in november. is that something to watch, is that cause for concern? guest: 6.5% plus the high house prices, affordability, mortgage payments have jumped, affordability has collapsed. you cannot afford this. sales have fallen, demand has fallen. single-family housing is the weakest part of the economy, which should not be a surprise. the federal reserve is raising interest rates in an effort to slow down, cool off the economy and of the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy will feel it the most. nothing is more interest rate sensitive than housing. to buy a home, you have to get a mortgage. those mortgage payments are high. so, very sensitive to moves in

interest rates. housing is in recession, it is contracting. that part of the economy is going backwards, sales are down. wilting is down. house prices are starting to fall in many -- building is down. house prices are starting to fall in many parts of the country. that is something to watch. there is very low probability that we see something that is serious in the housing market like we did in the financial crisis, that will not happen for lots of reasons we could talk about. we do need to watch when house prices start falling. people who got mortgages recently make it into a situation where there house value is less than the mortgage debt they owed on the house, that is not a good place to be, particularly if income is disruptive for unemployment or some change in life circumstance. so, it is something to watch. host: in florida, republican

line. good morning. one more time. we will go to ken in south dakota, independent line. you were on with mark zandi, go ahead. caller: good morning, thank you. you are a good teacher. i am wondering, what is the intuition behind normally lower short-term interest rates versus long-term? thank you. i would have thought it should be the other way around, i am sure there is a good reason. maybe you can explain, thank you. guest: thanks for those kind words. [laughter] i am a pretty impatient teacher if you ask my kids, but i will take it.

the intuition is that if you buy a long-term bond, going back to the 10-year treasury yield -- treasury bond i was talking about earlier, you are extending -- you are buying a bond that returns in 10 years. a lot of things can happen in 10 years. compared to say a three month treasury bill, something that expires or pays off in three months. that 10 year bond, you are considering that relative to the three month treasury bill, you are saying a lot of stuff happens in 10 years. you could be higher, there are a lot of things that can affect the prevailing interest rates that exist 10 years from now. to compensate for certainty, that risk, you demand higher

interest rate. that interest between -- difference between long and short term is significant for a treasury bond, -- the federal funds rate target is the short rates to short rates. that should be somewhere around 2.5%, that is neutral with respect to the economy. neither adding or subtracting. the 10-year treasury yield should be about 4%, 2.5% fund rate, one point five percentage points is typical different -- difference between long and short rates that has prevailed historically. host: there is if viewer off of twitter who asked can you explain why china japan switched to little or no inflation, what are they doing differently? guest: in the case of japan, there inflation rate is pretty

high. it is low by our standards, but they are looking at inflation around 3%. you go back before the pandemic, they were flirting with zero. they were always battling deflation, declines in prices. that is the situation they have been in going back into the early 90's. their economy is more or less, in terms of the working age population, declining. people did not come to japan like to come to the united states. the size of the nation is declining, that puts downward depression -- downward pressure on demand. so 3% is pretty high by japanese standards. they would view that as a feature, not a bug. they do not want low inflation,

they want inflation close to our target in the 2% range. they see this as a positive development, but inflation has picked up. in the case of china, they have been crushed by the covid pandemic. they've been on lockdown since the pandemic hit three years ago , they never recovered. so there demand has been hit hard, they are flirting with recession. they are buying cheap oil from russia, russia's diverting oil from the western economies in europe and that is going into india and china, putting oil prices down in china and keeping inflation low. host: we may see some news today, the lifting of order cuts and applications for passports up in china. we may see some differing trends. guest: exactly right. they are trying to open up, it

will take time. the so-called no covid policy, they are getting sick like we did a year or two ago. that will delay things until the spring or summer. by the spring or summer, when they are on the other cited illnesses, that economy will start to ramp up again and grow more strongly. going back to something i said earlier, that is probably when oil prices will start to not hire because china will be by more oil. host: independent line, good morning. caller: good morning. i get real frustrated listening to these political hags for the democratic party. our economy two years ago, before biden came into office, was streaming along. it blows me away how you accept

for dollar gas prices -- fo dollar gas prices when the situationur make sure you believe, mr. andi is full of crap like his dog walking around with a diaper on. host: no need to insult the guest like that. if you want to respond to the bided administration and his policies, go ahead. caller: sorry about the dog, he is old. he is 17 years old, so sorry about that. cannot control him. in my view, the run-up in oil prices and higher gas prices, they are back down again. they are three dollars a gallon, that is close to where it is expected to be based on historical norms.

higher oil prices goes right back to the russian invasion of ukraine. when it became clear russia was going to invade, there was a lot of discussion back in 2021 when oil prices started to pick up. there's been a lot of concern about policies around energy development, fossil fuels. that might be constraining the ability of u.s. producers, for occurs -- frackers to invest and put in more oil rigs. that is not happening in the data, you can look. if you look, the number of oil and natural gas rigs in place today is exactly equal to where it was before the pandemic hit.

i think 740 rigs in operation. it has come up since the bottom of the pandemic hit. maybe the energy regulation is having some impact on the margin, pretty hard to see. russia produces a lot of oil, they asked for a lot of oil. you put price caps on it, that is appropriate to me in context of the invasion of ukraine, then you see higher prices and higher cost at the pump, that is what we saw. host: you wrote a piece taking a look at the stock market, give your analysis as far as expectations for 2023. guest: i feel a great deal of trepidation. trying to say sending about the stock market, a degree market -- equity market is difficult.

you should be invested in the long run. you should be saving and investing in a consistent way every month. if you are in the stock market, you should not need the money anytime in the future. that is something for 5, 10, 25 years down the road. at the end of the day, when you make an investment in the stock market, you are investing in the future of the american economy. that has always been a good bet. we have our problems, things go up and down, we have recessions like every other economy. long run, we do well and stocks do well. in the near term, if you buy into what i am saying, first at the federal reserve will raise rates more -- we are close to the end of the rate hikes, inflation will continue to come in. second, if you buy into the slow

session few of the world, it is going to be a strobel, but we are not going to a blown out economic downturn were session that sure recession, that suggests stocks are not coming going back soon. -- not comingroaring back soon. should be investing for the long run. host: california, republican line. caller: good morning, i appreciate you having me on. what we are hearing here is the left-wing view of economics. there is more conservative view of economics. it would be catastrophic if the government defaulted on its debt and things like that, i agree.

it is also going to be catastrophic if we continue to print this money, there is nothing to back it. you can point to germany in the 1930's and that is the path we are on. republicans will get hammered about holding the line on the debt limit, but i wonder if mr. zandi has an opinion about what happens when you print one $100 bill to many, which is what we are doing. the bills are going to get paid, people who get their social security checks, including myself. the question is, is it going to be worth anything? is the couple thousand dollars you get from the government going to cover your prescriptions cost for a month or something like that? c-span, you need to balance this thing up. my respects to mr. zandi, i

listen to his podcast. you are a staunch left-winger. to attribute the rise in gasoline to the war in ukraine, which is eight democrat talking point -- a democrat talking point, biden raised the price of gas the first day in office by limiting the amount of drilling for the first time we were energy independent in my lifetime. host: we will leave you there because we are running out of time. when it comes to economics, we present a lot of different perspectives on this program. you can look back and see it for yourself. mr. zandi, go ahead. guest: i appreciate the perspective. one area where i think we can agree on, it sounds like we agree on the debt limit, that is great. that would be catastrophic for everyone.

i do think if we implement fiscal policy, that means government spending policy, tax policy, and lawmakers do anything that would increase spending above that already in the budget or cut taxes below anything already in the budget, i think that does need to be paid for. we cannot increase the size of our deficits, we need to bring them in. i agree if we are not more fiscally prudent, that will be a problem. i do not think the issue right now -- we provided a lot of support during the pandemic, that was, in my view, necessary. every country on the planet did roughly the same thing. the government is there for us when we are in crisis, the pandemic was a crisis. here we are today on the other side of this, we did borrow a

lot of money. we do need to be fiscally prudent going forward. if we come up with a new package of increased spending for whatever it is, we have to come up with ways to pay for that. i there with cuts in other spending or increases in texas. -- either with cuts in other spending or increases in taxes. we need to come up with spending cuts or reduction or increases in other taxes to pay for it. i think that was coming through in the caller's remarks and i am 100% behind that. host: mark zandi, you can find the work at economy.com if you want to check out his work, including a look >> c-span's "washington journal", every day we take your

calls live on the air on the day. and we discussed policy issues that impact you. tuesday morning, a florida democratic congresswoman on her priorities for the 118th congress. and a congressional correspondent talks about house republican efforts to create a judiciary subcommittee to investigate the biden administration, law enforcement and national security. an an author on gop-led government spending and the battle over raising that spending. watching "washington journal" tuesday morning at 7 a.m., join the discussion with your phone calls to my facebook comments, texts and tweets. >> this year off shopping our new year's sale, starting tuesday at c-spanshop.org.

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