welfare. to do that, you can't just keep cutting checks. that is never going to work. so she has created a care four. -- care portal. someone comes in. those bureaucrats are now considered hope navigators to try to link the the mother with resources in the community. the portal allows churches to plug in businesses, nonprofits, volunteers. so maybe the mom has been displaced from her apartment, she couldn't afford the rent. that goes in. you could have a local church, and put them up. and guess what happens, when those same moms end up in the hands of churches and community groups, they don't come back from the government assistance. they get on it pathway to prosperity and self-sufficiency. it is a model for how we would do this nationally, to recognize government cannot be the answer

to these problems. how many trillions have we spent since the 1960s saying we were going to end poverty? and it hasn't happened. it has made it more entrenched. so, harnessing community groups, the faith community, doing that, that gives people a sense of purpose and that is how you end up becoming more sufficient. [applause] >> washington journal o, editor of national journal hotline. welcome to the program. in talking about where congress is going for the next election, i want to show on the screen real clear politics. this is their polling average for a generic congress vote, which means not specific to a candidate. 43% of respondents said they

would vote democrat, 43% republican. what does that mean? guest: it reflects the reality in congress. we are very nearly divided. democrats have the majority by one seat in the white house -- in the senate. the race for the house and senate will be extremely competitive and it will be on the margins. host: president biden's approval rating is at 43%. how are democratic congresspeople reacting to president biden? are they distancing themselves, embracing him? guest: they are still embracing him. they are dancing with the one that brought him -- that brung them. they are not fully running away from him yet and running on his popular platform.

the infrastructure bill. you will see president biden touting that a lot. they are not running from him. president biden has the line, do not compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative. democrats are looking at the alternative of former president trump and the more extreme views on some of these republicans and saying this is what we have now. host: we will take your calls for our guest. democrats can call (202) 748-8000, republicans (202) 748-8001, and independents, (202) 748-8002. i want to show you something president biden said in chicago last week talking about biden omics. here's a portion of what he said and then i will get your response. [video clip] >> guess what? bidenomics is working.

supply chains were broken millions of people unemployed, hundreds of thousands of small businesses on the verge of losing after so many had already closed. today, the u.s. has the highest economic growth rate, leading the world economy, since the pandemic. the highest in the world. [applause] we have created 13.4 million new jobs, more jobs in two years than any president has ever made before. it is miraculous. that is bidenomics in action. bidenomics is about building an economy from the middle out and bottom up, not the top down. there are three fundamental changes we decided to take in with the help of congress have been able to do. first, making smart investments

in america. second, educating and empowering american workers to grow the class. third, promoting competition to lower costs and help small businesses. host: that was the president in chicago last week. kirk, how is that playing in congress? guest: the employment -- the unemployment rate is down, the economy is in pretty good shape, but are voters feeling that? right now, in survey after survey we have seen, voters rank the economy and battling inflation as their number one and two issues and they are not feeling the same effect that resident biden -- that president biden is talking about now. the president has very little control over those things so that is why he's having the investments in making things in america but it's about transferring that to voters and that will be challenging as he ramps up his reelection campaign. host: let's talk about the house.

democrats will need five seats. how is that looking? guest: it looks about like that real clear poll we showed earlier where it is equally divided. we have had a few supreme court cases these last few weeks that have kind of upended what we thought the redistricting process would look like. it looked like republicans were going to be able to draw themselves a few more seats in ohio or north carolina, but after these rulings that broke in democrats favor, we will have 's in alabama, probably louisiana. it will almost be a wash. it's a tossup. the biggest races where both parties will be looking will be in the 23 crossovers seats, where representatives from a different party hold the district that the presidential candidate of the other party won, 18 republicans, five

democrats. the republicans are mostly in new york and california and that will be the center of the race for the house. host: going back to that supreme court case, the alabama case, does that mean that alabama and louisiana are most likely going to pick up a seat for the democrats? guest: the ruling found how the gop drawn maps in alabama violate parts of the voting rights act. they will have to redraw the lines by july 21. and it has to be a black majority district because there's only a single black majority district in alabama right now. democrats will likely be favored in those seats. it depends on if -- on in this game of redistricting which republican ends up in a seed that is not in their favor. the same thing in louisiana.

but those seats should favor democrats in a redraw. host: i know it is still too early to make a prediction about control of the house, but it looks like it is in play for the democrats to retake it. guest: absolutely. when you have narrow margins and summary districts -- and so many districts that president biden won, they are in a strong position to retake the house. we could have a scenario where both changers -- both chambers flip. host: let's have a look at elise stefanik. she outlines gop priorities and its stance toward the biden administration. [video clip] >> the biden administration continues to weapon -- to weaponize the executive branch.

the unequal application of justice by joe biden's doj must be stopped. there cannot be one set of rules if your last name is biden or clinton and another for everyone else. house republicans will continue to deliver much-needed oversight to cut out the rot in these federal agencies and deliver accountability and transparency for the american people as we continue to work hard to implement our commitment to america. last week, while it should not have taken a threat of contempt, the oversight committee reviewed critical documents from the fbi relating to joe biden's corruption. we will hold the administration accountable by standing up for the american people to stop the outrageous and insane that idea that started in new york is now being embraced by every democrat and the biden administration. we will pass acts.

house republicans will stand up for second amendment rights with a resolution restoring constitutional rights, especially for our disabled veterans, our wounded warriors. host: she talks about a lot of stuff there. how is that playing? are those good general election issues? guest: the gives you a reminder of the benghazi hearings in 2015 that were designed on paper to hold the then secretary of state, hillary clinton, accountable, but were really about bruising her up a little bit were the primary -- a little bit before the primary. she mentioned the different applications of the law. these are important things and oversight is important but if

you are a voter who is deciding whether or not to vote for a democrat or republican based on gas, you are probably not a swing voter. host: let's talk about the senate. what are you watching? what seats could be in play? guest: the senate is just as divided as the house and it's a tossup. the map does favor republicans slightly. there are 23 democrats up for reelection, 11 republicans, and the top seats republicans are targeting our jon tester in montana, sherrod brown in ohio, and joe manchin in west virginia. of those 23 democratic held senate seats, those are the only three were trump has blown them out of the water. 39 points in montana -- in west virginia, 18 in montana and eight in ohio. those will be vulnerable seats. however, it is not just the map

that is your destiny here. it is also the candidates. republicans had a big issue last year in the senate with poor candidate recruitment and some more exotic nominees on the republican side who were able to sail through a primary but were a little unpalatable to general election voters. republicans are trying to counter that. host: i want to ask you about recruitment. there are some states struggling with that. guest: yes in second-tier competitive seats. we mentioned montana, ohio and west virginia. republicans have gotten big recruits in all three. they have tim she he in montana. ohio has a few competitive people there too. then there's the next level of competitive seats, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, even nevada. they are struggling to field a solid general election candidate there.

in wisconsin, mike gallagher, former moderate republican, said he's not going to challenge tammy baldwin. in michigan, a democratic representative who has won competitive race after competitive race, a fund-raising juggernaut, is the only major candidate in the democratic primary without much of a republican challenger. she would be tough even in the best conditions and republicans are not putting themselves in the best condition. host: you wrote an article for the national journal called courting disaster about the supreme court's decisions. tell me about what you think that would be -- how you think that is going to play in the congressional campaigns? guest: we mentioned the redistricting cases.

so those were big decisions on their own. if you look at these other supreme court cases that dealt more with cultural wedge issues, affirmative action, student unforgiveness. in that article, i wrote about how progressives are going to start calling for biden to expand the court, to do something about this, and president biden has said we are not going to expand the court. the most he can do is kind of shake a fist at the supreme court while he is getting these defeats. it just shows him to be, at least in some voters eyes, ineffectual. you have all these questions about his age, about how

dissatisfied voters are with him. this could trickle down to congressional races, where younger voters might end up staying home. in a presidential race, that's influential, but has effects down ballot as well. host: what about roe v. wade? how big of an issue will abortion be? guest: massive. i think we might have underestimated it last cycle. the democrats really seized on that issue. after the court overturned roe v. wade, republicans really did not have an answer for it. they were able to talk about, you know, our stance on abortion is we do not like it but this is the precedent. they don't have that anymore. they have struggled to find a

palatable message that gets them to their primary -- gets them through their primary, was voters who are a little more extreme on abortion, and the general election. voters are still uncomfortable with even a 15 week abortion ban. republicans have not found a good talking point to solve that issue and democrats are going to seize on it. host: let's talk to callers now. henry is first up, a democrat in alabama. good morning. caller: good morning. host: go ahead. caller: yes. i would like to speak about a thing that happened in alabama.

what they did was they put in a law where if you help any person fill out their absentee ballot, it's a felony. host: let's get a response. guest: i know there have been some ways that especially republican-controlled state legislatures are trying to regulate more the mail and and ab the ballots -- the mail in and absentee ballots. it's part and parcel of what we have seen after the 2020 elections. host: debbie is in pasadena, maryland. good morning. caller: good morning. i would like to ask a question about the unemployment and they say it's the lowest it's ever been and i know that the reason is the lowest is because people

were collecting it a year ago getting $600 or -- $600 more on top of their unemployment a week. and you cannot collect unemployment again until you have worked a certain amount of time. i think it is three quarters of a year. so of course unemployment is going to be low because the fact that people cannot collect it now. they have already used all they can use. i was wondering why don't they tell us the reason that this is happening? host: any response? guest: how we calculate unemployment is so interesting, where we make a big deal out of the first of the month, where the new numbers, and. it's a big political event. a month or two down the line, you look at the revised numbers. in terms of how we calculate the unemployment numbers, i am kind of wait and see. host: we have a tweet.

this was sent via twitter. it says, will new york be able to change the gop four seat gain? guest: that is kind of the ballgame now for democrats. you have the democratic super pacs and house majority pacs already committing to spend $45 million in new york alone to get back those seats in districts that president biden carried. that will be the center of the house battlefield right now. there are lawsuits and legal pushes to change the map in new york. democrats at the state level, including governor kathy hochul, are pushing to redraw the lines again after last year's redistricting fiasco delayed the primary. we are waiting to see how that plays out right now, but the question is 100% correct that

this will be the center of the battlefield. democrats and republicans will make a lot of investments there. in a presidential election year, when turnout will be high, democrats have a good chance of flipping at least a few of those seats. host: john is calling in maryland. good morning. caller: how is it going? i want to tell you how things are going out there. i have been self-employed since 1982 and made anywhere from 50,000 to $100,000 a year. on my way to my minimum-wage job now because of this economy. you could call it anecdotal, but -- it is not that biden is wrong on all aspects. you have to do these things in baby steps. the lunatics are running it. you talk about issues, you know, abortion, all that, but you don't have food and money, people look at it differently. that's all.

thank you. host: what do you think? guest: i am sorry you are having tough times. that is what we were talking about earlier, where president biden and democrats can tout this low unemployment number, look at all these rankings and indicators that the economy is in strong shape, but if voters like john are not feeling that, what is it worse for them? host: there's an article in the washington post titled swing district republicans strike back and it's about more moderate republicans in seats that could be flipped. they are pushing back against their voters on the more conservative side. guest: we are starting to enter into it. we are in the third quarter of an off year. reelection campaigns.

it was like a scenario in the senate where joe manchin and kyrsten sinema where the most powerful politicians in washington because they needed those votes. you are kind of not seeing that play out in the house even with it so narrowly divided. you are seeing kevin mccarthy is being led a little bit by the more extreme members of his party. they have the biggest microphones, the loudest voices. they got the biggest concessions. moderate republicans, the majority makers, the republicans we are talking about in new york, are feeling the squeeze. they don't want to move certain things onto the floor and they are pushing back because they want to go back to their districts and say i'm showing

you what i have brought. send me back to congress. host: let's talk to marion in cincinnati, democrat. good morning. caller: good morning. i was interested in what you said about ohio. there's been so much corruption in ohio on the part of the legislature in ohio. the previous speaker of the house in ohio was just convicted and sentenced to 20 years in prison for bribery. a $5 million bribery. and it is beyond me how people cannot see past all this gerrymandering and ignoring supreme court rulings that the ohio legislature has been doing. and i just wondered how much

influence the state legislature has on the presidential campaign, especially in ohio. thank you. guest: thank you for the question. ohio has traditionally been a more swing state, battleground state. it has become less of that in the trump years and now, but there's been more political investment in ohio for both parties. republicans in the state are pushing for a special election to change the rules on how you can change the state constitution because of the push in the state to codify abortion protections in the state constitution. so ohio republicans said we now need to change the constitution to change the

threshold for how we change the constitution. you have the republicans in ohio trying to make it harder for abortion changes to happen. at the presidential level, i don't quite know yet. we will have a competitive senate race with sherrod brown up for reelection. you are already seeing joe biden, former president trump making tons of trips out there now. i don't think ohio will be a swing state. however, the conditions are getting there or it could be competitive potentially. host: i want to ask you about arizona and kyrsten sinema, now running as an independent. is it possible we have a three-way race now? guest: what is going on in arizona is like a political scientist's dream. it is so interesting to see these unique conditions. you talked about the condition of a third party presidential candidate playing spoiler. you could have a legitimate

third-party candidate or independent in kyrsten sinema. and so far senate democrats have to play a tricky game. they are annoyed by kyrsten sinema for any number of things. they would probably prefer the democratic candidate to be a comfortable vote and not come up the works like kyrsten sinema does -- not gum up the works like kyrsten sinema does, but they need her. you are starting to see that crack a little bit. you saw nancy pelosi saying she would hand -- would headline a fundraiser for the democratic candidate.

my question is who do the republicans have on the ticket now? the governor passed on the senate run. the only candidate i have seen mentioned seriously lost the governor's race in a winnable state. she has not necessarily moderated since she lost. if she is on the ticket, you could have sinema and ruben gallego in the general next year. host: good morning. caller: i have a comment i would like to make about our election ballot systems. i don't want to oversimplify it, but i think it is time we all put our thumbprint on our

ballots when we cast our ballots. i just feel like you should be able to know two years after the election how you could actually go to that person and say how was it that you voted in that election? as it is now, when you leave the ballot box, you have no copy of your vote. you don't know where your vote goes. you don't know how it is cast. i think a thumbprint will illuminate a lot of the -- will eliminate a lot of the worries from the people at vote. you could call your election bureau two years later and say i want to review my vote for two years and i want to know how it was cast. thank you very much. host: what do you think? guest: i don't know if thumbprint verification is the most effective and efficient way to increase election security. i know it's a huge issue for

republicans and democrats. states have really struggled to find that balance of making it easier to vote but harder to cheat. that is kind of the line that people use. i think what we are going to see in the next election is different innovations in the process of how we count ballots and everything that previous elections kind of laid bare. host: let's talk to tom in connecticut. republican. guest: -- caller: yes, ma'am. good morning. it's going to be a total republican sweep in 2024. the election process will report back to same-day election -- will revert back to same-day election, all 50 states, paper

ballots. the only exemption will be absentee ballots, the same as essentially jury duty, someone is in the military and have under penalty of law an injury or disability that prevents them to go to the polling place. host: why do you think there's going to be a republican sweep? guest: i live in -- caller: i live in connecticut. it's a totally democratic state. we have zero congressional representatives. our senators are democratic. but i have many hispanic friends. we have a significant hispanic population. i happen to be white, military veteran, and they are all to a person, male and female, and young, college educated, hispanic people are definitely

voting republican. they are appalled at what happened with respect to religion in the roman catholic church and applaud the recent decisions of the united states supreme court. the repercussions from that will be parents who cosigned on student loans will start losing their homes and they are going to lose their suvs and they won't be able to take their dogs to the overpriced veterinarians. host: we will get a response. he mentioned the latino vote. guest: republicans are really trying to court the latino vote now, especially after they made some significant inroads in that community in texas and florida, even arizona. what i see with tom's question is about reverting to same-day , only paper ballots and everything. that is a deal within the

republican party now. when former president trump announced his campaign, he was saying that. but now you have the rnc starting to invest in their mail-in voting infrastructure, voter education, changing the stigma, at least in the republican party, over vote by mail and mail-in ballots, because there's a huge gap between them and democrats on that and it's easier to vote. you can vote at your convenience. you are not at the whims of the weather or some emergency to go vote. that type of disconnect, voter education from the top of the party, making sure that trickles down to voters, is something i will be watching closely, because that has huge implications for the presidential race and the balance of congress. host: zach is next, harrisburg, pennsylvania, a democrat. good morning. caller: thank you for taking my call.

i can tell you we have things that make our vote in pennsylvania very safe. i want to put that out there. i hear people lie about -- in my opinion, it's all about suppressing the vote by coming up with this bogeyman that does not exist. the mail-in voting -- talking about kitchen table issues. in this day and age -- and i'm also a military veteran. people, especially handicapped, i have to accommodate at my polling place. they will sit at their kitchen table and put in their ballot. they can get on their phone or laptop, research the candidates. the people who do mail-in ballots are probably more informed than the people standing in line.

in places like georgia, you are going to put somebody in jail for giving a bottle of water to exercise their constitutional right? you know? and at the same time, these guys are gerrymandering and taking money from pacs and all this stuff. the corruption has never been on the side of us patriots. host: let's get a response. guest: well, to his point -- first of all, thank you for your service and for overseeing these elections. is a tough job -- it is a tough job a lot of the time, especially with rising threats to pull workers. pennsylvania was extremely secure and it will be secure in 2024. the difficulty here is pushing back on a lot of those conspiracies about either widespread fraud that the former president pushes -- and that is, again, kind of almost voter

suppression. you saw that in georgia, where former president trump said this is rigged in georgia, sow in the 2021 special senate election, you had a lot of republicans stay home in those red leaning districts and everything. it is kind of a dangerous game republicans are playing. host: i want to show you a headline from nbc news that says trump's gop lead grows after latest indictment, poll finds, but a new poll shows the party is split over whether trump should remain the leader of the gop. what are you seeing as far as the trump indictments and impacts on congressional leaders? guest: congressional leaders, especially on the republican side, largely mimic what trump is saying. kevin mccarthy is calling it politically motivated right now. he is standing by trump, even

when he said that former president trump is the strongest candidate they have, but he might not be the strongest. even floating the possibility president biden might beat him, trump was outraged. he went on this long apology tour about it. mitch mcconnell is keeping quiet, as he is wont to do, to see how the chips play out. you have hakeem jeffries fundraising office a lot -- fundraising off this a lot, trying to tie republicans in congress to trump. democrats are painting the republican party as a party of extremes and they point to the indictments of trump as evidence of that, that they are not distancing themselves from this politically vulnerable, at least on paper, former president. they are looking for an opening there. i pulled the real clear politics polling averages at this point in time in 2016 and 2020, and

it was kind of, at least at the presidential level, a done deal at this point. president biden was leading in 2020, president trump in 2016 at this time. it seems like these other presidential candidates on the gop side, if your best case scenario is ben carson in 2024, i think you are in trouble. host: next caller is in new york, a republican. caller: i would like to hear a little bit more. most of your criticisms on the republicans, the extreme republicans, all their weaknesses, what they are doing wrong. let's turn the table a little bit and be more bipartisan about your criticism. what about the democratic extreme ideas, like doing away with fossil fuels, open borders,

indicting somebody that's, you know, he's a former president and they rushed this special counsel through. it took a couple months to come up with 39 indictments. we have not heard anything about the special counsel looking into biden. i cannot even tell you who he is. i didn't see any photos of the documents they found, what the makeup of the documents were. and are there any extremists that affect the senate, they keep the senate kind of -- you know, with their ideas about student loan cancellations, reparations? i can go on and often, but how about putting a little light on with the democratic party is going through instead of just focusing -- and, ok, you read the washington post.

everyone knows what the washington post is. in bc, everyone knows what nbc is all about. the new york times, we don't even have to discuss this, because it won't go anywhere, but let's shine some light on the democratic party so i can get an idea of both sides. if i hear only one focus on just this, that, and the other -- i want to hear both sides. host: got it. guest: let's look at some democratic vulnerabilities. you stop at the top of the ticket with president biden. these losses in the supreme court are showing he's a little bit ineffective. it reminds me of the summer of 2021, when congress was not moving on his agenda at all. he tried to be the senate president and chief and was really just not getting anywhere there. his age is an issue as well. that could drag down democrats. and as a voter in new york, as our caller was, he would know

that the defund the police stigma on democrats really hurt them in the last election. one of the big reasons you saw at the national level surprising republican wins in the house was because republican successfully painted democrats the party of the fund the police -- of defund the police and the state legislature there pushed through a cash bail reform program that was unpopular with voters. that kind of soft on crime reputation democrats have struggled to shake really took effect, especially on long island and some of the outer borough races. that is a huge issue, huge issue for voters, especially -- even in new england, where there's a massive amount of fentanyl coming across the border. that's a political issue democrats have struggled to answer. host: stephen is on the line for

democrats. caller: good morning. i find it funny that the republicans have -- are trying to mess around with the opportunity to vote, so they have, like, 70 places where you can vote in a county in texas, and they cut it down to three places, so now it takes a lot more money just to be able to get in your car and drive to the new polling place if you can find it at all, and they say, well, you still have the opportunity to vote. you still have the opportunity to vote. by the time you get to this new voting place that's now small in numbers, you have to wait in line six or eight hours in order to vote. which of you white guys on the republican side would even consider doing that? so i have a hard time dealing with the democratic party not fighting. they have so many opportunities.

the republican party -- i cannot even recognize this as being a republican party anymore. i don't even know what they are. it just continues. and what are we hearing from joe biden? well, when we all work together, that is when we get things done. how about a little bit of passion, joe? if you said, if we all work together, that is when we get things done. that is when america comes to its best and when we really get things done in a logical way. anyway -- host: all right. a lot of criticism there of joe biden on the left. guest: a lot of passion on that call that apparently joe biden needs. this is going back to what we said about some criticism from the left of joe biden. his approval ratings are underwater even in the democratic party. part of that criticism is he's

not taking the fight enough, not talking about expanding the court, not saber rattling like former president trump did, but that is not his style. that's never been his style. he has been in washington for 50 years. he's a dealmaker and a back slapper and everything and he knows how the sausage is made. if you are looking for him to change that at almost 80 years old, you kind of know what you are getting already. host: kirk bado, thank you so much. editor of national announcer: you know to a virtual discussion on voting rights and election laws hosted by jews united for democracy and justice. this live event is just getting started here on c-span. announcer: coming up thursday morning, a messenger reporter discusses president biden's reelection campaign.

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