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c-span, your unfiltered view of government. announcer: washingtol continues. host: we have 80 days to go until election day 2024. we welcome al weaver -- you just recently released a piece about the five most likely to flip. when you mean five seats, you mean virginia, wisconsin, and others. and no republicans it's currently in the five seats of what is say about the senate battle in 2024? guest: republicans have a unique opportunity. they are playing with the territory with a bunch of red states. you have virginia, and the same in montana and ohio. it is gotten more red over the years.

it is a prime opportunity in those seat for a pick up where they think they probably should take majority. in the last cycle, and a host of democratics also said that they think this could be the year. host: 49 and -- one independent. democrats making of the razor thin majority. and joe manchin is at the top of the list, why? guest: a couple things unlike esther he is a little more vulnerable this time around. he has not announced that he is running for reelection. his numbers are not fantastic. when you look at the approval ratings, they are not doing too great given his work for [indiscernible] last year. but that is the main thing for mansion right there -- joe

manchin right there. and chief justice is running for the group of republicans. he is in really good shape there and one of the voices of the primary challenge. they are feeling really good out there. host: you mentioned that joe manchin might run for president? guest: there has been some chatter. host: is that why he is holding off on announcing a bid? guest: i don't think so. what you here with him is they expected to do this in 2018. 2018 he went until the day before in january and then announced he was running again. they expect the same again. and that lines up with that. most people seem to think that no matter -- no labels and third-party presidential bid that he owed to mentally will not do it. host: on the republican side jim

justice and alex mooney set up a potential i marry battle -- primary battle. and that is one through the republican race right now. guest: justice is a wealthy man, to turn -- two-term governor, and extremely popular. he just took maryland and now west virginia. he beat a establishment election against mckinley last year. he is one tough racist and he has admitted that before and he has overcome that. and so -- he says that he's going to have to get some support. and it is a matter of if they want better not because he is very formidable and he is a top

candidate in the state. host: i want to invite viewers to join the discussion as usual from the line for the democrats --democrats (202) 748-8000, republicans (202) 748-8001, independents (202) 748-8002. you said you put joe manchin just above jon tester in the country. so why would chester be right there? guest: because he is also in this type of state where republicans think they have a massive advantage. there are so many more republicans than democrats and this is also the presidential cycle. no matter what some of the democrats want to do they have the -- presidential year. you have president biden on the ballot next year and potentially former president trump and ron desantis. it will be a big driver for

republicans of who will be at the top. right now they are excited that they got -- viz. businessman in the race. he's been in the deck -- race for a decade now. a war veteran and he is likely running against matt rosendale. or rabble-rouser who made life difficult for kevin mccarthy early this year. we will see what happens in the race but republicans feel good about him and i think this could be the year finally. host: jon tester 03 term -- a three term -- how will he win in a state that is usually more friendly for republicans? guest: he ran in 2018 which was not a bad year for democrats. senate race was not as good but he prevailed. he is a strong candidate and a montana and that is one argument that they will make he is more

of a montana native compared to others. an tester has been born and raised there. that will be the democrat debate he will be the right person for the right state at the right time. host: people who are calling who want to talk to you, but let me ask one more. for a state that is turning more red, should they try to -- should sherrod brown try to win this election? guest: absolutely. he is tough to beat. he is a good fundraiser. he identifies with the state very row -- very well. and people on the ballot that represent their state very well they pop up -- they talk about this with brown. -- sheriff brown is another one

in this tester mold who is very tough to beat. he is a democratic incumbent who is a good fundraiser. he identifies the state very well. that is a big thing democrats are looking for for sure people on the ballots that represent the state well. they talk about it with brown and others. he will be a tough out and probably be as tough as brace -- in 2018 he ran and defeated a candidate who is not a great candidate back then. host: he won by six points back then that trump carried by eight points in 2020. guest: correct. when you look back to 2016 when trump won big and he won by double points. host: talking about the senate battlefield with the seats most likely to flip. we can talk about the races you

want to talk about as well it does not have to be these five. aloe weaver -- owl weaver -- owl -- al weaver discusses campaign here to take your calls. caller: with this agreement court decisions, and the economy they will be big issues in the 2024 campaign. what will the republicans actually do -- what will be the posse that they will actually run on? host: thank you for the call in minneapolis. you bring up a good point. in 2022 a lot of credit for democrats unexpected success was

due to the dobbs decision in overturning roe v. wade. the supreme court in 2024. guest: you will see a couple things the abortion argument is not going away anytime soon. in the house races, you see it on the senate ballot as well. people message on abortion and do it with what they think is success. democrats had a big turnout for that a couple years ago. i think you will see a lot especially, this issue is not going away. every week there is a new battle of -- at the state level. seems like every couple weeks you have a new staying with the six week and being thrown out. it will stay in the news and democrats will make sure it is in the news. i think you will see that and the other thing you will see is this [indiscernible] throughout the affirmative action and the president land on student debt. -- plan on student debt.

i expect visiting on that as well. host: let's focus on one who is not caucus with either party. the state of arizona. guest: it is the turkey of the four states at this point. there's a lot of moving variables and whether cinema runs again --sinema runs again, she fundraiser like she should in q1, we have not seen the q2 numbers yet but republicans will likely be stuck with kari lake would whether they like it or not. she has not announced that she will run but all signal is -- signals are pointing in that direction. it might be more palatable to some national republicans taste. it will be an interesting race and the democrat running out there is ruben gallego is doing

everything he needs to do and fundraising at a strong label -- level. he's doing everything in the kratz want him to do at this point. -- democrats want him to do at this point. -- not at this point they are waiting to see how this shakes out. democrats are still wary across sinema at this point because they still need a lot of things. they have judicial nominations they still need her support on to get over the edge. and they have her with number of other issues where they need her support. they do not want to anger her. host: the expectation is they probably will not be running negative ads sponsored by the democratic editorial campaign? guest: everything is cbd they have kept open everything at this point.

-- tbd they have kept everything open at this point. host: july 15 we will start to see those numbers and how these races are shaping up. guest: we saw this over the last week how people want to put out good numbers. host: those that did not do so great wait until the 15th. the friday before. guest: yes, you see that and it all comes out at one time in. host: this is james for republicans. we are speaking with al weaver about the senate battle. go ahead. caller: my question is if you look at the polls in 2022 looks like republican will win by a red wave. they only have five seats. my question is if the republican party don't learn how to lay the election game -- play the election game that democrats do, [indiscernible] already 800,000 votes before -- it does not matter who we put

up, if we do not learn to get out and get to early voting, we ain't gonna window. i don't care who we put up. we put jesus up, but if we don't get the votes, we will lose. that is why we did not do well in 2022. it had nothing to do with the candidates, we just couldn't get voters out on election day. thank you. guest: that is an issue republicans will have to deal with this cycle. former president trump is out there saying you cannot trust anyone to vote early. you have to wait until election day. issues for republicans last time created chaos. and we have heard speaker mccarthy in the last couple years voting early. this is how you get this done and it is effective and nonfraudulent. host: one c-span viewer ask how

tim ryan how ohio is looking j.d. vance winning that race. and does senator portman draw anything from the 2022 race or does he have enough experience in ohio to know what he needs to do? guest: round the last couple cycles has gone ahead and done everything he needs to do. he's made the case to ohio saying he is the guy -- that is needed in congress, he fights for unions, fights for the little guy, and that his argument he will make this time around. he raised a lot of money in the last quarter about $5 million and you will see more of that. they need to win that race but the trendline in ohio is unmistakable. whether a republican presidential candidate can wash them away is a great question that democrats will ramble with. host: how many terms is sherrod

brown at this point? guest: i believe it is his fourth. he's been there -- a while. host: good morning caller from washington dc. caller: good morning. the president tends to -- the candidate tends to pick somebody from the opposing party with different views. for the vice president in order to bolster and broaden some of their campaigns. in the case of desantis, if he took gabbert who is the most researched person in the democratic debates, she is a little bit more left, she brings , definitely brings the middle and some of the left. and the far left are only concerned about skin color and genitalia, she will also bring them in. so that will be a match that will be personally impossible to beat. that is my recommendation for

desantis. anyway, thank you. host: would you like to talk prep -- vice presidential picks or is it too early? guest: i think you will see desantis first up he is down by 30 point in the polls right now. he is hoping he can make his way through iowa. host: only two points according to -- politics polls. guest: allow it is higher. he needs to givens of credit for that. he desantis is trying to work his way out about but it is a long game for presidential politics. everyone's mind is on iowa. the republicans that do not like donald trump, they think they can get a foothold there a little bit. we will see what happens with desantis and it is a good story with vice presidential politics. we have a story over the weekend with kim reynolds, she is staying neutral but tight with dissenters in recent years.

under a republican governor. that is one of the things to watch. host: we are talking vice presidential politics, cal tullis -- cal tom is in his article in the washington times says vice president harris unknown language makes it hard to articulate at times. that is a headline there. -- about 20 minutes left without weaver and he will be with us -- with al weaver he will be with us another 20 minutes. you can call in democrats (202) 748-8000, republicans (202) 748-8001, independents (202) 748-8002. your column has wisconsin as number five which is tammy bollen. guest: she is a strong democrat a tough one for the republican cycle.

this is a presidential year and republicans do well in wisconsin. they have a chance and that is that simple. they look at a couple of those -- and a businessman in wisconsin. he lost in 2012. they are hopeful that they can take her down but it will be tough. baldwin is in a group of -- a cluster of democrats who all share the same traits. you have her and bob, and jackie. they are all in those states. republicans could do well. given the trendline and whatnot. and republicans are trying to get there feel. there trying to get mccormick in the race there. and they got sam brown in the race out8 in nevada to take on

jacky rosen. i think we will see all of the races and republicans have a tense in all of those. they may but right now democrats have a competitive in vantage -- competitive advantage in all three states. host: democrats claim they can go in offense this cycle. texas debate have a shot at ted cruz? guest: they may think they do. but we have heard this story of how democrats pick it roads in texas, but whether they can knock off one of the candidate is a toll order. they tried this in 2020 with hager and cornyn. and in 2018 they came in closer than any democrat in recent memory. raise more money as well. and ted cruz still beat him by

10 and he was unpopular at the time. he was not a great candidate and now he is stronger. host: from the newspaper this morning roland gutierrez democratic state senator has been outspoken gun control component since that massacre in uvalde, texas. representative: an congressman from the dallas area declared his candidacy in may. so that primary will have to play out who will take on cruise. -- ted cruz. guest: that is correct but they are casting with all red. it is a strong candidate -- in any other state he would be a good candidate for senate but ted cruz in texas it will be extraordinarily tough. he is well-liked individual, but the issue is that he has that ted cruz can message on him easily and say we voted for nancy pelosi x percent of the time the last couple years and that is a little tougher in 2018

. he was a moderate at the time not saying he will take your guns. he ran a strong race where he lost and ran for president. it will be interesting to watch but i think it is a high nomenclature. host: delay have nancy pelosi -- x number of times when she is not speaker anymore area guest: absolutely that is not going anywhere republicans still message against her. i do not see that going anywhere anytime soon they know more about her than they do hakeem jeffries. host: tennessee you are on. caller: have been listening to corporate media spread the word again. what you're doing is underestimating these young voters. they young voters are not going for republican, i do not want nobody discriminating against transgender. they want school rights and they want to be left alone. the way republicans have this

country, the young voters will change it in this election they showed it in the last election and that is all i have to say. guest: yeah, i think college students and young [captioning performed by thenat, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2023] >> we're going to break away here to keep our commitment to live coverage of congress. you can continue watching if you go to our website, c-span.org. we take you live now to the floor of the u.s. house here on c-span. the speaker pro tempore: the house will be in order.