producers of synthetic opioids. later, members will work on the first spending bills. funding the agriculture department, the fda for next year. current governntunding expires september 3 the senate gavels inat today at 3:00. senators will work t annual defense programs and policy bills with votes on more amdments scheduled for 5:30 p.m. a final vote is expected by the d the week. watch live coverage on c-span. you can watch all of our congressional covere th our free video app. >> healthy democracy doesn't just look like this. it looks like this.

americans can see democracy at work. get informed straight from the source on c-span it. from the nation's capital to wherever you are. this is what democracy looks like. c-span, powered by cable. going to kick things off by chatting with brendan peterson, he is a financial services reporter for punch bowl news. good morning. guest: good morning. host: thank you for joining us. we know that federal reserve is meeting today and tomorrow. what are analysts expecting from the meeting? guest: we are expecting a 25 basis point hike. this is pretty much in line with how things have been going for

the past 16 months or so. the federal reserve has been embarking on a historic interest rate raising campaign to bring down inflation. we paused last time, economists expect the fed to hike again. the real question looking forward is what the fed does after this. officials have projected they want to hold interest rates higher, rather than raising them every time. the question will become how long do we hold interest rates as high as they are? if the fed hikes tomorrow, we are looking at an interest rate between 5.2 5% and 5.5% of the federal level. host: we hear a lot about this softly ending the federal reserve is trying to create or accomplish. what does that mean, and how does that impact rate hikes? guest: something you might hear

folks say on business cable and in general is the phrase immaculate disinflation. what that means is the fed successfully raising rates and ringing down inflation at the same time without seeing a significant increase in unemployment or other metrics of economic pain. raising rates usually has a cost. it has been correlated with lost jobs and higher levels of unemployment historically. that has not happened at this time around in large part because the labor market has been so tight for so long. if we achieve a soft landing, that means we get lower inflation without losing a whole bunch of jobs. i think we are a little ways away from declaring victory on that. inflation is a long process to bring down and the real friction of the fed interest rate in the economy is going to take place

over the next several months, if not years, as we keep rates elevated. host: speaking of the elevated rates, what is the impact on consumers if the fed does move forward with hiking interest rates today and tomorrow? guest: in the short term, i do not think consumers will feel that much difference. we are kind of in matter of degree territory. a lot of fed officials have said we are feeling comfortable with where we are at, some fed officials want to push us past the 5.5 percentage point and get us closer to 6%. in general, a lot of the effects of higher interest rates have been moving their way through the economy over the last several months. consumers will probably see higher interest rates on various types of loans, like mortgages and credit card payments. you might already be

experiencing that. other ways will be harder for regular consumers to gauge. for example, big companies will probably be borrowing less money as interest rates get higher. that might translate down the line to fewer opportunities or smaller pools of investment. in general, with rates already being so elevated, i think today's hike would just be a little on top, rather than a significant event. host: testing your historical knowledge, i am curious -- he said between five point 25% and 5.5% could be the interest rate after this week. people like me who are not experts, we do not know how that compares. ? ? is that really high historically is this kind of normal?

is it hard to compare? that is my question. guest: it is not that hard to compare. part of the issue is consumer expectations. for the last decade or so, interest rates have been really low, especially coming out of the financial crisis. we are talking about interest rates that were at or below zero , which is free money. because inflation has been so stubbornly low over the past decade up until after the pandemic, rates stayed pretty low. my adult lifetime, i am not used to seeing interest rates this high. that said, we saw much higher interest rates in the 70's and 80's. famously, paul volker, the previous chair of the federal reserve really had to campaign

against inflation. had to crank up interest rates to stamp it out after inflation was stubbornly high for much of the 70's and 80's. interest rates were in the teens, i want to say. i do not know the exact number off the top of my head. people paying out for 15% mortgages, which we are getting there in the housing market, but we are not anywhere near that level any meaningful sense. it has definitely been worse in the past, but expectations are everything and interest rates have gotten higher in a short period of time. host: let us talk about the political impact on president joe biden. he has been talking up the economy, painting a pretty positive picture. but one of the political stakes for president biden as we know consumers are still worried about inflation? guest: it is a tricky dance,

running for reelection as the president when you had an economy where voters pretty widely agreed it is not the most comfortable thing in the world right now, but everything is getting better. when you are talking about the president and economy, it is everything right now. until the economy craters out or unemployment starts to go up, stock market, any of the little metrics we like to talk about -- republicans do not actually have all that much to run against biden on. they have made a big stink about inflation and the economy for good reason, because republicans know people care about that, because they do. as long as things are getting better, those attacks will carry less water. that is part of the reason why we are seeing so many republicans leaning into cultural war fights over lgbtq

issues, what is happening in schools, things like that. without the economy, republicans do not have as much to fall back on and that could be a defining characteristic of the 2024 presidential race. host: before i let you go, the million-dollar question. just in your analysis, are we still at risk of inflation? you said it is too early to claim victory for a soft landing. what indicators are you looking for? guest: unemployment, certainly, is the big question on everyone's mind. i do not think anyone would be surprised if unemployment goes up a little bit over the next several months. the fed itself has projections on the books saying by the end of the year, they expect it to go up enough that potentially millions of people could be out of work in this country. we are a big country, one

million is not the largest number. it is significant. losing a job in the u.s. is one of the most disastrous things that could happen to you as a personal-finance matter. the other thing is wages. people want to know that their wages are keeping up or exceeding what we are seeing in inflation. under the biden economy, low and middle income workers have seen income rise as historically fast rates. they are closing the inequality gap with the upper thresholds of our economy. upper to upper middle-class americans have certainly seen their income go up. they have not seen it go up as fast as low and middle income folks, so they are feeling the economy in a different way than the lower end middle-class, which is always been the case. but the shoe is on the other foot this time, so that is what we are tracking in terms of quality of life as well as with the macro unemployment rate. host: that has been great

information you shared with us this morning. again, plentiful news financial services reporter brendan peterson, thank you again for joining us. we are back to the phone lines, because our question this morning is what is the impact of inflation on your personal finances? do you see things getting better or worse, and how is your household impacted by inflation? the numbers to call, democrats (202) 748-8000. republicans (202) 748-8001. independents (202) 748-8002. you can also send us a text message at (202) 748-8003. include your name and where you live. we want to hear from you. first up is john all the way in

hawaii on the democratic line. you were up early to chat with us, tell us what you think. caller: hi. about inflation -- i do not think it is getting any better where i live. it just seems like everything is pretty much stabilized pretty high. i do not see anything going down over here. that is pretty much what i have got to say. it does not look good for the democrats. they own this. i voted for the democrats, i was expecting way more than what is coming out from what they are passing. not good at all. host: when you say the impact,

where do you see it most where you live? is it the grocery store? tell me more about the impact you are seeing. caller: absolute the grocery store, going out to dinner, even getting fast food. gas prices are crazy. houses are unbelievable, rent. pretty much all across-the-board, every single thing the average american needs to do to survive every day. i expected more for the democrats, i am telling you. i hope they can get their act together, because they promised a lot and it is not happening. host: let us go to kentucky now on the republican line, go ahead. caller: i agree with the last caller, i agree with everything he says.

yesterday, has been takes his lunch to work every day. we use aluminum foil and baggies. i told him yesterday, aluminum foil has gotten so expensive, bring this home. let us wash and reuse it. host: interesting. so aluminum foil even, appreciate your call this morning. greg in north carolina, independent line. caller: that man u had on a few minutes ago was saying how things are getting better. the problem is, it does not play out in reality. when you go to the grocery store, prices of food are still high. a box of cereal is six dollars. with the biden administration is saying and what is really happening to people every day, it is a contradiction.

whatever they are saying politically, people do not see it in their everyday lives. it will be interesting to see how things play out in 2024. host: let us go to alabama, larry is calling on the democratic line. caller: hello, how are you doing my favorite host? host: good morning. caller: my opinion, based on what i heard from the gentleman, they guest you had on the show, somewhat agree with him. one part that is not the president's fault inflation is going on. if you look back when former president george bush was president, the interest rate was so high it was almost 11%.

you have the federal reserve, run by jerome powell raising interest rates. for those who got credit cards, those who got a loan, these credit companies and banks, they are the ones who make money off of the working poor. the rich folk get money to spend when they raise interest rates. it is not the president. every time jerome powell raised interest rates, he is raising it on the people paying the taxes. not these big companies. i was listening to your guest, i guess some people do not care. it is not the president, people. host: we appreciate your call

this morning. speaking of president biden, i want to show some video. this is the president in philadelphia last week, where he gave a defense economic agenda, they started to use the term bidenomics. he is talking about that and its impact on the economy, including inflation. here is a portion from last thursday. [video clip] >> inflation has slowed every single month for the last 12 months. the lowest point of inflation, the lowest point in over two years. the u.s. has the lowest inflation rate of any major economy in the world. less than two thirds of what it was a year ago, down from 9% to 3%.

it is going to go down lower. at the same time, pay for low-wage workers has gone up at a faster paced, wages are growing faster than inflation. a lot of working folks are beginning to have a little bit of breathing room. job satisfaction in america is at a 36 year high. we have got more work to do, people are coming off the sidelines to work. the working age is the highest it has been in 20 years, including every single day under my predecessor. it is not an accident, it is my economic plan in action. host: that was president joe biden speaking in philadelphia on what he calls -- what his administration has coined bidenomics.

we want to hear more from you, how inflation has impacted your personal finances. democrats, your line (202) 748-8000. republicans (202) 748-8001. independents (202) 748-8002. we are going to the independent line in connecticut. you are on. christine, are you with us? christine, last call. we are going to nancy -- let us see here. let's try nancy in florida. caller: good morning. i just wanted to make an

observation that what i see around town's middle-class people spending all kinds of money. you can go to a restaurant, it is packed. $29 a meal, for a family of four you feed to teenage kids. the restaurants are full. people are spending money. my life is good, i retired, i paid off my house and car. my social security and pension pay for the good lifestyle that i have. host: appreciate your call this morning. the next caller is in kentucky, john, independent line. caller: yes, i was looking at the airports, full of people taking vacations.

they are spending money, they've got money. -- sorry, i muted my phone. host: you are fine, keep going. caller: we have floods on one side of the united states, droughts on the others, tornadoes, hurricanes. i am trying to understand -- when they have fireworks, people spend thousands on fireworks. they are buying furniture. the food is high because of the war. the russians are holding up the grains, one third of the world

gets their food from there. everything is blocked off, that is where it is coming from. it is not from biden. if it was from biden -- basically, they need to study up on what they are talking about. host: let's go to carolyn on the democratic line from charlotte, north carolina. caller: i think it is the republicans whole agenda to attack biden's economic plan, it has been pretty good. i think that most of the corporations are causing high prices at the grocery store, wherever. it is advantageous for them to raise the prices. they are making record profits while people are suffering and nobody is looking at the back end, they are looking at the

front end and blaming biden. biden has a great economic plan. as far as the war in ukraine, it was advantageous to attack ukraine because it is the breadbasket of the world and he was really wanting donald trump to be in power. he did not attack under donald trump, he attacked under biden because he knew would create a world economic crisis. these people need to read. host: next up on the republican line, rick in tennessee. caller: thank you for taking my call. i am not here to play the blame game or anything. all the parties have been a party to this type of thing, all down through history. the biggest thing of inflation, the reason that prices are high

is mainly because of fuel costs. it costs extra money to haul everything across the country. i was a truck driver for a while and a contract there outside that type of business. every time the fuel prices went up, supplies went up and we had to go up on our prices. biden did stop some of the pipelines when he went into office. i do not know what the thinking was behind that, i'm sure they have some kind of reason they thought was legitimate. but the real crux of the problem is that fuel prices are so high. host: trina is next in indianapolis, democratic line. caller: where i have a problem is none of the businesses have

stopped -- people are still out shopping and taking trips and everything. if you go out, the stores are still full, the trucks are still going. amazon trucks are everywhere, pulling up to people's homes. fedex truck's are rolling and people are shopping, taking trips. the airports are full. when you see all of the planes, people are full in the airports. that's why people are complaining when flights are getting stalled, they are spending money. we understand that prices are higher, but the large corporations, they are making huge profits. so i agree with the president. bidenomics is truly working.

i do not understand what the problem is. people are making higher incomes , it is working. things are from the middle working out, just like the president is saying. i agree the democrats are doing their work, it is hard of congress is not working together. those constituents higher congress to do their jobs and they are not doing with the constituents vote them in for. it is ridiculous. thank you. host: let us go to the republican line, george in ohio. caller: good morning. just a couple quick points on inflation. i actually do not think this inflation situation really is joe biden's fault. but it is his problem and i do not think he really understands it too much.

he is claiming victory, claiming that biden not makes has caused inflation to go lower. but really it is higher interest rates that's causing cpi to go down. the money supply has shrunk year-over-year since probably last july. that has caused cpi to go down, but it is only due to higher interest rates. i do not think a lot of people really understand that. once we start lowering interest rates again, which the federal do, once they start lowering interest rates again, inflation will probably go in the double digits in people are not ready for it. we are living off of credit cards, people are paying for groceries with credit cards, paying for gas to get to work with credit cards. that bill is going to come

through sooner or later and we will not be able to afford it. i think the worst of it has yet to happen. people really are not prepared, they are saying how great everything is, how everyone is shopping. but we will have to pay the piper sooner or later. host: i want to bring up an article we've been talking about the federal reserve meeting this week, this is today's wall street journal. fed has yet to declare victory on inflation. i'm going to read down in the article, starting in the second paragraph. it says some fed policymakers and economists are concerned the easing in inflation will be temporary. they see inflation slowdown is long overdue after the fading of pandemic related shocks that pushed up rent and the price of

transportation. they worry underlying price pressures could persist, requiring the fed to lift rates higher and hold them there for longer. other economists say that thinking ignores signs of current economic slowing that will gradually subdue price pressures. they argue inflation will slow enough to push inflation-adjusted interest rates higher in the coming months. that would provide additional monetary restraint, even if this weeks rate increases the last of the current tightening cycle. that is today's wall street journal as the federal reserve prepares to meet. i want to read a few of the responses we are receiving on social media to today's question , what is the impact of inflation on personal finances? andrea writes on facebook immense.

the cost of food, even staples like milk and eggs, is obscenely expensive, especially for those of us on fixed income. so glad my kids are grown because i cannot imagine buying groceries for a family. dining out has become a luxury since groceries and gasoline are expensive. i fear this has become the way it is going to remain for forever. josie ward on facebook says i am making a lot more than i was pre-pandemic. inflation has not been bad for me. it has been hard on retirees with fixed income. everyone in the workforce should be making more money. also on facebook, the car i was going to buy back in march is now more than double its original monthly payment. i needed time to save for a down payment, but the fed raise the rate, which was 2.5%.

it is well over 5%. i will read one more from facebook, tammy writes that housing costs are the big problem. i am disabled after surviving a ruptured brain aneurysm in 2001, my social security covers my rent, electricity and phone, that is it. i work part-time as a cashier so i can buy shampoo and toilet paper. i am in my 60's and paying 80% of my income for housing. it is ridiculous. we want to hear from you, what is the impact of inflation on your personal finances, and do you see things getting better or worse? democrats (202) 748-8000. republicans (202) 748-8001. independents (202) 748-8002.

we are going to go to the independent line now, michael is calling from buffalo, new york. caller: thank you. i am an average person, i do like to use analogies for people to try to understand things. inflation is because of government overspending. a year ago when democrats decided to put out over $2 trillion of spending and printed all that extra money, that drove up inflation like crazy. like gaining 300 pounds in the matter of a couple months. biden says everything is getting better, it is only getting better because people are losing 10 pounds a month, but they are still morbidly obese. inflation is not getting better.

they still have not lost all the way they put on a year ago when you spend almost $2 trillion printing money. the government cannot just print that money and not expect inflation to go up. they say this plan is working, it is not working at all. you need to lose a lot more than 10 pounds a month. the government needs to stop spending so much money. if you do not stop spending money, you have to lose the weight you gained a year ago. you are never going to catch up. democrats want new sending money over to ukraine to fight a war against russia. you cannot keep renting money and expect inflation to come down. host: we got your point this morning, appreciate your call. next in chicago, democratic line. caller: yes, i am calling and

because all of you guys are talking, but no one is addressing the main issue. the feds are getting ready to roll out a fed coin, a digital coin. this is not no conspiracy theory. every last one of us calling today will be crying on your knees praying to the good lord. this coin is going to take away our freedoms and it is going to be sad. joe biden, trump, there is no physical man going to save us from the chaos that is coming. i am glad you are addressing the situation about inflation. i am 69 years old, i have seen the value of the dollars evaluated and the dollar has collapsed. after the fed coin is rolled