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democracy. " continues. host: joining us is roben farzad, the host of public radio's "full disclosure." he discusses all things about the economy and he is here to talk about that. guest: good morning. host: for those who don't know your program, a little about it. guest: it is broadly about the business of culture but we delve into policy and politics and creatives, media entertainment, hollywood, people i am fascinated to talk to. i love to bring to the center in. actually listener in -- bringing the listener in. i try to demystify that for the audience. host: there is a lot of talk about the economy, but how do you look at the economy and where it stands? guest: it is a bizarre economy. if i told you unemployment is

naggingly low, that is a high-quality quality first world problem to have, around 3.5%. we have been visited by inflation that has not been filled since the 1980's -- not been felt since the 1980's. i was at an einstein's bagel this morning -- you will forgive me for always invoking fast food. it is a good touch point. people overwhelmingly are not masking and the fed is no longer at zero interest rate policy. the dining room is still not open and they don't want people using the dining room. they want a doordash table and a grubhub table. the place is way too big for that kind of business. the landlord is trying to hold on to them. when i spoke to the manager he said there are so many people working from home that we would

bankrupt ourselves in terms of the free coffee policy. they cannot staff the place because it is impossible to get motivated employees to show up. every day there is any person there preparing my bagel. it is a broad metaphor for what is going on. there is a hangover. the federal reserve would gladly trade higher unemployment for lower inflation and more people motivated to get back to work. it is definitely not normal. host: in that context, this week cpi comes out. it is a look at inflation. explain that and then relate that to the audience where it stands today. guest: in "trading places" everyone was worried about the future's report. this is the metric everyone is paying attention to because we want the fed to solve inflation and for the market to know that

this rate hiking cycle, which has been painful, zero interest rates to 5% in a year, that caused a couple of bank failures. people want to see that is over. that is hurting people with variable debt. younger families are getting locked out of the mortgage market. to the effect that the fed sees inflation invading -- inflation abating, maybe we are closer to that period where they can start taking interest rates down again. ever since powell's testimony that inflation is transitory, this is not an omniscient person. these guys don't get it nine out of 10 times. it is an imperfect science and we have not had a pandemic in the modern period with a modern federal reserve and the experience of ppe and stimulus

and all of that. let's see. host: the consumer price index, 2.3% last month. it was lower than 3.7% in september. the coolest since july. when you look at that number, people want to say look at core inflation versus the other things. what is a way to look at that for the average consumer as they think about what it pays for bagels or groceries. guest: it is still price increases but better than 5% to 9% which is inflation the likes fed wants to fight. inflation fed wants to target is 2% inflation. i don't know if that is fairytale inflation. the perfect titration would be higher unemployment, people to go back to get jobs -- people wanting to go back and get jobs,

but lower prevailing wages and that would have a low impact on inflation and wage price pressures. host: if you want to ask questions about the economy and things of that nature, 202-748-8000 for democrats. 202-748-8001 for republicans. 202-748-8002 for independents. you can text us thoughts at 202-748-8003. a speech before the international monetary fund that jerome powell spoke about lowering inflation rates and the target inflation rate and a spoke about what the fed is prepared to do. i want to play you a little bit of what he had to say. [video clip] chair powell: demand continues to move it into better balance. gdp growth in the third quarter wasn't strong but we do expect growth to moderate in coming quarters. that remains to be seen and we are attentive to the risk that stronger growth could undermine

further progress in restoring balance to the labor market and ringing inflation down which could warrant a response from monetary policy. the fomc is committed to obtaining a stance that is restricted to bring inflation down to 2%. we are not confident we have achieved such distance. we know progress towards our 2% goal is not assured. inflation has given us a few head fakes. if it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so. we will continue to move carefully, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data and overturning. we are meeting it meeting by meeting based on incoming data and applications for the outlook for economic activity, inflation, and the balance of risk as we determine the extent of additional policy that may be

appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time. we will keep at it until the job is done. host: he has said these things before, cautiousness as the fed moves forward. what did you take away from that? guest: what he cannot say is i need more pain. pain helps his job. when you had a bank failures earlier in the year and banks seize up and are worried about virtual runs and people taking their deposits elsewhere and becoming fbi see seizure material -- fdic seizure material, they are not making months. there are people write about car payments, making rent, health care payments, they will be motivated to get a job and keep a job. the problem is that you need more pain to make this possible. there is a lot of confidence and may people being on the

sidelines when unemployment is this low. he would gladly trade 4% employment for this, if fable 2% inflation rate. 2% seems to be any arbitrary target but they are fixated on it. we are told there is a natural rate of unemployment and it seems he is defective saying this should be a natural rate of inflation. host: i always ask what is the magic thing about 2%? guest: i don't know, but 4% or 6% -- argentina or other countries routinely put up with 50% inflation. that is the big taboo, we don't know how well to fight it. paul volker from the 1980's had to break the back of the economy to bring inflation. it sent us into a bruising early 1980's recession. we did reap the rewards of a bondable market and all thought -- bond bull market because of

that. but you have to take your pain. that is a hard thing for a government agency agent to say, i need more pain out there. host: robert farzad is the host of "full disclosure." michael in south carolina starts. you are on with our guest. go ahead. caller: good morning and thanks again for c-span. specifically, would you speak to the concept of greedflation and corporate earnings and the effects that might be having on liquidity that people are feeling? there have been a lot of wonderful policy actions and i know that takes a while to get to us but i also know there is a gap. would you speak to that? guest: sure. working with my metaphor, i

remember in the pandemic the grocery store, kroger or publix, through my mask i remember looking for the starbucks called brew, the large size in the copy section. it was always a $4.50, maybe $4.99. since all of the supply chain worries, it has been $6.50. i wonder how much of that is starbucks passing on actual costs. not starbucks but the packers and the joint venture they have, versus opportunistically pushing through price increases to pad margins which they have not been able to do. there was always this tug-of-war between brands and a walmart which every year is saying justify your price because the

most valuable thing is a shelf space. we have private label brands. i know i have annoyed you with aaa -- chipotle examples, but that extra cost for a scoop of guacamole. how much of that is opportunistically price patting versus we are getting hit by inflation like everybody else, it behooves us to push through price increases? that is a multi trillion dollars question. host: that just makes me hungry and i cannot do anything about that. let's go to kentucky, republican line. darrell, go ahead. caller: i heard one of the callers say the economy is bad. he knows it and everybody knows it. joe biden ruined it. cost of living is high. gas prices are high.

people are coming across the border. they are coming here for free, getting free jobs and free money from us. president trump, if he was in the office, our economy would be lower -- inflation would be lower. everything would be running properly. what i am saying is it is time for him to go straight to hank. -- heck. our economy is out of control, losing jobs. host: to take his point, the reality of the economy versus the perception of the economy. guest: everybody started this year thought it was complete we were going to have a recession. in the article said there was a 100% chance of it. it was pressed in, advertisers were pulling back, people laying off in anticipation. it did not happen.

the job numbers were stubbornly good. if you go back to the powerful testimony, he is saying we have a plan here, but there is a good chance that the news might be too good to hurt our plans. you have a misery index. in the real world, there is the bureau of labor statistics which pays -- outside of that, people feel inflation. they feel the price at the pump, they see tables that cannot be served at restaurants, they see the airports and the condition they are in. they know what a basket of groceries could cost them. they are in a foul mood. if not, the president's rating numbers would be higher. most people would be running victory laps around this is a standard job growth -- this sustained job growth. misery has been high and there

have been wars going on and people coming out of pandemics. governors and state office candidates running on parents' annoyance at the lockdown industrial complex and kids being in zoom school. it is not a perfect economy the likes that bill clinton could run on in the mid-90's. it is peculiar. a lot of people are in a bad mood. host: to what degree does policy decision factor into inflation such as pandemic spending as it was in previous administration and the more spending we saw from this administration for infrastructure and the like? host: jerome -- guest: jerome powell was a trump administration pick and he took rates down. there was a freefall feeling in the spring of 2000. the argument was he kept them there too long and that was a visionary. the stacker step of waiting,

before hiking out of the interest-rate policy, combined with fiscal policy and ppp. we nationalized business interruption insurance. there are companies who took that money to protect their payroll and within six months were having a gangbusters year. you follow the rules and you did not have to pay back a loan, it was forgivable. on top of that, the biden administration followed through with infrastructure spending and fiscal stimulus. i don't think this is a function of $2000 checks being given to people. this is trenches of capital by the fed and pp that remain out of their -- ppe that remains out there. the fed has had a hard time shutting it off. host: this is from nevin in florida. caller: the world situation with

the two conflicts, how is that impacting? is it actually beneficial for the u.s. economy with us providing these armaments to the conflict? guest: it is a great question. it adds to volatility. you see it in oriole, you have seen a comeback in the oil market. wti crude is around $75. brent is closer to $80. there is volatility and the prevailing data point is weakness in the u.s. economy that would send oil prices lower. inventories are popping off too high. there is more concern. if you see an expanse in the middle east, if you see the saudis get involved, the iranians get involved in the mediterranean through lebanon, this will effect to the war premium of crude oil prices -- effectively -- effect the

premium of crude oil prices. we saw this in 1973 with the embargo and how that multiplied and created an efficient. there is always concerned that could have been. think to the russian invasion of ukraine and what that did to oil markets and gas prices. we are always mindful of that but i think the economic forces are bigger. china is dealing with potentially a hard landing. so many empty buildings, so many arrested workers. how does that effect economy and oil prices? we overwhelmingly import from them, but china is a buyer of also the commodities we compete with. host: you said hard landing in their case. in contrast, there has been reporting about is augmenting taking place when it comes to the economic issues here in the u.s. what does that mean?

guest: you don't have to crash the economy, you can ratchet up rates from 0% to 5% and we can land this thing. we can trundle along and then grow again as opposed to crashing everything. interest rate hikes are a blunt instrument and more often than not they will send the economy into a recession, almost by design. you have to have the pain in order to have creative destruction. the whole prices go down, we remember that cartage in 2009 and 2008 -- that carnage in 2009 and 2008. this is a time when fortunes are lost. professionals look for volatility like that. right now in the u.s., you have companies that are in and out of trillion dollar dominations -- trillion dollar valuations. host: from colorado, democrats'

line. caller: hello? host: go ahead. caller: the problems that america is seeing now, we are going to recover from them. we are the world leader because we are a nation of god. president joe biden has done a great job. that is what you see the president of china coming here. that is why ucs is standing up against russia. america is the world leader. we had problems in our past but we get over them because we are a nation of god. america is the world's leader and we will continue to be the world's leader. i commend c-span for the people speak. we are not going down because we are powerful nation. thank you, c-span. host: we will get over it eventually. is that the sentiment we are hoping for? guest: we are resilient,

whatever the we is. a shirt is stacked a week ago that blew my mind -- larry shared a statistic a week ago that blew my mind. a u.s. young man is going off to war in 1917. he takes his life savings which is $1000 and puts it in a jar in the city deposit box. by 2023, that would be $1000. in inflation-adjusted terms, it would be a 6% lower -- 96% lower. had he put it in the s&p analytic compound not just through world war i but the ensuing great fluke, the crash of 1929, great depression, world war ii, the missile crisis, the korean war, the cold war, vietnam, the crash of 1987, 911, all of these things, that $1000

would have turned into more than $30 million. had you told him, i would have put it in the jar. i would have been terrified. it explains how resilient corporations are. we increase the standard of living, things that would kill you in 1917 are routine and treatable. can we solve the climate crisis and sea level rise? can we do things about inequality and certain other pernicious things? that is the best we are making. -- the bet we are making. if i had told her this is what the 20th century and beyond is holding, you would be terrified. rightly so. host: the headlines about the stock market expressing a third week of weekly gains.

is there a connection there to what we are seeing on these other indicators as far as where the economy is? guest: companies have pricing power and over time the stock market has been a hedge against inflation. there are other expectations that the market can -- if you can get a 10 year treasury at 5%, why would you go and look for the dividend yield in the stock market when you can get it from a supposedly risk-free treasury? that competes with the stock market. you have companies that have pricing power. you think all of the fomo in hospitality and leisure, how miserable it is to go on an airline. every seed to come every drink, every pretzel, they have pricing power. that is being passed on to shareholders. people are paying a high premium for u.s. quality companies. we had a lost decade to begin this century, but certainly

people are obsessed with our stock and our debt. host: from greg in florida, independent line. caller: good morning. i would like to make one question. have you ever read the definition of a ponzi scheme? if so, how can you tell me that is any different from the stock market? every single product a person uses on their daily basis is a product that is in some way or another touched by a publicly held company. host: thanks. guest: if i am taking money from investors to pay older investors and convincing older investments -- investors there is returned, that is any understandable argument. if you are a public company, you

have shareholders that own it, stock behalf of millions of individual shareholders and small institutions. u.s. and the owner of an s&p index fund would be a fractional order of apple, google, ford, bank of america. they don't have a full self-determination. there using your capital to why other companies and by box stocks and issue dividends. you are a very small owner. if you are civil enough control in stock, you can dictate in terms. in disney, there are shareholder activists saying i don't like how you are dealing with the destruction to hollywood -- with the disruption to hollywood. i would push back against the idea that is a ponzi scheme. host: let's go to a viewer in oklahoma.

go ahead. caller: i am a retired officer. i have seen a lot of things from pentagon to the foxhole. this economy seems to be self-explanatory. if you look at the quotes from smart citizens in the past like mark twain and will rogers, will rogers was rather outspoken about the economy. a lot of quotes are still applicable. host: what would you like to ask our guest?

caller: to quote mark twain, there are lies, dam lies, and then statistics. host: let's go to andrew. caller: i have a simple question. i am wondering what the $8 trillion deficit created by the last administration has as an effect on the present administration? guest: we are not getting punished for it yet but there are murmurs that when you talk about interest rates being higher, the carrying cost of deficit and indented going forward is unsustainably high. you cannot find your defense,

you cannot have any dry powder in the event of a world war or god forbid another pandemic. what are you going to do, throw another $5 trillion or $6 trillion on? it damages flexibility. that is a conversation that seems to be on the back burner. until we get spending and control. the argument is that it is more performance art than anything. are you going to see jerome powell at some point to say i have done my job and you need to go back and help us bring it down? much like in the way alan greenspan gave bill clinton and others the cloud cover to go and focus on the budget. that is not front and center right now. it is being mired in politics -- in partisan politics. host: duties -- moody downgraded where the u.s. is as far as credit is concerned.

what did you make of the decision and the impact it had? guest: isn't it amazing how little the impact had? if you look at your show in 2011 when they downgraded the debt, that was a big black eye. that was so taboo. we have seen so much yawning. what is a blow up a moment where people stop and pay attention? i think high interest rates keep that honest. we are not as worried about interest rates as we were two weeks ago. host: bill, republican line. caller: i would like to get your guest's opinion. it is a question i have. we all know how everyone is hurting right now. anybody who goes to the grocery store or if you go to a diner, you are paying $15 or $16 for

macaroni and cheese. we know that things are high, we know our checking account balance and we are using our saving account balances lower. anybody can feel that, except probably the very rich or whoever is on a fixed income. here is my question. i am trying to use common sense. i remember when the executive orders -- and i looked up executive orders. i did not go through any articles or newspaper. when the executive order was given to put a pause on drilling oil in the u.s. and not becoming energy independent. an executive order was given not to stop that. what happened at that time, i remember saying gas is going to go up. nobody seemed to say anything

about it. sure enough, look what happened? the price of gas almost tripled and that does affect companies. they have developed their trucks to bring food tomorrow. it is going to cost them $3000 to get the trucks filled up versus $1000. that cost has to be passed on to us. host: got your point. thank you. guest: there is prettier -- plenty of oil in the market. you can see the price at the pump, including seasonality. you can talk about correlation and causation forever. the u.s. is drilling and producing like it has never been before. do we need the incremental arctic drilling or deep into the golf? probably not.

it is open to debate. you remember sarah palin and drill, drill, drill. there is plenty of oil right now, the question is how much in the global economy. china's demand is going to affect what the normal price is going to be going forward. host: talk about the consumer here, just to show two headlines, marketwatch said when it came to real tail sales, the u.s. seeing -- retail sales, the u.s. seeing a fall. the government accountability office saying it was over the summer credit card balances reached $1 trillion. talk about the consumer role in the economy. guest: people are using credit cards much more to make ends meet and putting monday and balances on it anytime of higher interest rates and higher variable moving credit card interest. that is risky business.

they are not doing it out of a pump or crop -- a bumper crop. you look at the uaw and finally all of these things, people can expect upwards of a 25% wage increase over four years. you started to bend as if you have that money. you might extend yourself more in terms of credit for the time being. i don't think it is a good indicator. at some point you see deteriorating credit quality. people will have a harder time. they call these nonperforming loans. they're not paying interest on something and after a certain structure they have to write down this balance. we have not seen this yet. the fed has its eyes on that because it is indicative of recession. host: now that we are heading into the holiday season, is there a sense of what retail is expected and what consuming might be like? guest: so much has been muddied by the amazon effect.

we used to pay attention, there used to be cameras outside of coals and the mall -- outside of the mall. online has changed that so much, the free shipping paradigm. black friday is black friday and retailers depend on it, but i am not waiting with baited breath as if that is the most important metric. there has been so much seasonality. target has had a rough year. there are structural issues, labor issues that eclipsed what a couple of days in november mean for these companies. host: let's go to illinois, independent line. caller: the part that is killing us on inflation is health care and health insurance. we are spending 30% of our income for it in 2014. today we are going to spend 31 to 33% of our income for health

care. i don't see anything controlling the cost. the bad parts of the affordable care act is it encourages insurance companies to increase total premiums because they only get to keep the percentage. there is nothing in the system trying to control costs. there is consolidation in the health care industry which means there is limited supply which means they can charge more. as a result, the premiums keep going up every year. that is what this really squeezing people in the middle. the bottom people are subsidized, at the top they can afford it. we are getting killed by that is my only question. these are great points and i would encourage everyone to read the series in the new york times about the debilitating cost of long-term care. as baby boomers age, caring for parents and figuring out that

medicare doesn't really cover anything and you have to be really poor to avail yourself of medicaid and you have to show you have no disposable income there are wealthy people who can afford it and everyone in the middle get squeezed. even after obama care, they have had pricing power. they were able to survive the pandemic and there were a lot of doctors who are not doing elective care during that time. we still have not come to the brass tacks of controlling costs. the most infamously shared graph is what we pay versus our outcomes versus scandinavian countries or japan and it is staggering. at some point it takes away from other things you can do in terms

of long-term care, what you have to pay out-of-pocket and how much it hits your own savings and what you give your kids and grandkids. these are real crises and it's important for congress to get back to talking about them because we are nowhere near a solution. host: this is from the kaiser family foundation about spending in the u.s. versus other countries. as you look at that we will hear from terry in pennsylvania. caller: thank you for taking my call, i appreciate it. i've got something here that has been bugging me for years now. lumbar was between 200, $300 per share and now it's a $1000. when trump signed the tire thing

it went up to $1700. that is still having a direct effect on housing. since housing is up so much, people can afford it. thank you, have a nice day. guest: it's one of so many inputs that goes into the inability for this country to do anything with the new housing formation needed by demographic growth. can you believe this is a lingering effect from what happened between 2006-2011. they thought this would be a generational catastrophe but of course corrected. there was a renaissance fair housing during the pandemic and interest rates were at zero and now more than ever, we have a scenario of haves and have-nots

in boomers hanging onto inventory. if older people's start accepting lower bids you will see homebuilders be more rational about it. there has been hoarding from lumber, copper pipes with people who have money who could make cash bids for the opportunity. host: i imagine the renters are feeling that pinch two. guest: if you're in an environment where you feel like you have clout as a landlord. it is so out prize for renters and homeowners. if you were to develop a price model what you're able to learn in the job market and what you pay to be there there are some places that have untenable pes. we prayed about it in vancouver, austin, westchester county.

rents go up as a function. if you realize you can rented out to tech burroughs in miami you jump on the opportunity. caller: this inflation is about blue-collar wages. we have to lower our wages and work for less. for an economist to not mention the expansion of the money supply in regards to inflation. we spend so much for our temporary covid budget and were still at the same budget level. guest: i hope i hit those things which is why jerome powell can't

talk about this. one real estate executive said once we hear higher unemployment we will see wage pressure come down. if anything there has been some comeuppance with labor versus capital. the fed is focused on the money supply, the issues with ppe and fiscal stimulus have to be mopped up. host: the guest program can be found

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