c-span as a public service along with these other television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. this morning on "washington journal", your calls and comments live. then cnbc consumer reporter melissa repko joins us to discuss consumer confidence, this year's holiday expectations, and the u.s. economy. paragon health institute president brian blase talks about open enrollment under the affordable care act as the 2024 sign up period begins. "washington journal" starts now. ♪ host: good morning anwelcome to "washington journal". it is black friday and many americans are out this morning looking for those sales and bargains. that makes this the perfect time to talk about the u.s. economy. as we head toward the christmas

season how is your wallet doing? will you be buying more this year or less than you did last year? is your dollar going further than it did last friday or are you cutting back and hoping for better times in 2024? that is our question this morning. are you optimistic or pessimistic about the u.s. economy? if you are pessimistic about the economy, your number is going to be (202)-748-8000. if you are optimistic about the economy, your number is going to be (202)-748-8001. keep in mind you can always text us at (202)-748-8003. and we are always reading on social media on facebook at facebook.com/c-span and on x @cspanwj. today is black friday and many people are looking for shopping bargains or other computers looking online for sales.

but are you optimistic or pessimistic about the u.s. economy? where do you think it is going? well, we asked that same question to moody's chief economist who is on this program earlier this week. here is what he had to say. [video clip] mark: i am optimistic. i think the economy is performing well. a year ago there was concern about a recession, meaning lots of lost jobs and rising unemployment. that did not happen. the economy created lots of jobs and unemployment has remained below 4%. the thing that has been bothering americans, rightly so, is the high inflation and we have gotten good news there as well. inflation has moderated. still too high but clearly moving the right direction.

stock prices, housing values, things that matter to people and their wealth have held their own despite the higher interest rates. i am pretty optimistic. i think the economy has performed surprisingly well. i am hopeful it will continue to do so in the coming year. >> does that mean we are out of the woods for a post-covid recession? mark: not out of the woods yet. i would not declare victory yet. we will wait for the federal reserve to start lowering interest rates. once they start lowering interest rates they are saying inflation is back to something everyone can feel more comfortable with. once that happens we can feel -- breathe a sigh of relief and feel we have got to the other side of this. but the risks have receded. if you go back a year ago and ask, what is the probability of recession?

i would have said close to even. now i would say 25%. still too high but clearly receding. host: with mark zandi being optimistic many americans seem to be pessimistic. there is a story from brookings this morning that tells you what people think. here is why so many americans are unhappy about the economy. i will read a couple of paragraphs. for many months economic pundits and biden administration officials expressed their belderment that the president has received poor marks for the economy. there has been near full employment over the last year and an increasing number have entered the workforce.

labor force participation has risen above what pessimists regard as the ceiling. president biden has negotiated landmark economic legislation to invest in infrastructure and advanced manufacturing. what is not to like? a report just released by the u.s. census bureau helps answer this question. corrected for inflation the earnings of most u.s. households declined significantly last year. for households in the middle of the economic distribution the decline was 2.3%, from $76,330 to $74,580. about seven in 10 households representing three quarters of the electorate experienced reduced incomes. that is from brookings. i want to bring even more from brookings to you to get specific data about what is going on in the economy.

this comes from the brookings institute. corrected for inflation the earnings of most u.s. households declined sigficantly last year. for useholds in the middle of the economic distribution the decline was 2.3%, from $76,330 to $74,580. is decline was across the board. it included men as well as women, married as well as single households, and full-time as well as part-time workers. it did not reflect a decrease in wo effort. on t contrary the number of full-timeorkers increased twice as fast as did the workforce as a whole. nor did it reflect a decrease in

the pay, which rose 4.6% in 2022. the rate of inflation, 7.8%, tstripped the rate of pay increases so that the income of most households did not buy as much as it had in the previous year. that comes from the brookings institution. it explains a little bit about how and why so many americans are not happy with the economy. what is it looking like for you? are you pessimistic or are you optimistic about the economy? let's go to our phone lines and start with ryan calling from orange, massachusetts. good morning. caller: how are you? host: doing great. how are you doing today, ryan? caller: i am doing very good. i tend to be pessimistic about the american economy because of

taxation rates, our government and out-of-control spending, and our government continuing to give money to illegal immigrants when it comes to housing and real estate taxation both at the local level and state level, as well as the federal management of the economy and the borders in general. host: today is black friday. are you doing any kind of christmas shopping? if you are, what are you seeing out there? are you seeing things being more expensive, less expensive? caller: more expensivecaller: because of bad monetary policy. the reality is bad monetary policy is because of the bad taxation policy. if you want to do anything for the economy, the best thing is to vote for trump. host: let's go to steve calling from ormond beach, florida. good morning.

caller: good morning and thank you. i am sorry but i am pessimistic about the economy. the reason why is because, as far as inflation goes and the lack of goods we are receiving, we are trying to control inflation by raising the interest rates but what is really causing inflation is these corporations have become so large that they really have no accountability. they raise their prices, they lower wages because they are basically in control of the whole industry. there is less than a handful of corporations that control each industry. if the wages go up, they move their manufacturing overseas.

if somebody wants them to pay their fair share of taxes, the move their operations overseas. the leverage buyouts by private equity firms, i do not think there are too many americans that have not felt the negative impact. we need to put our corporations in check. they have handed over our manufacturing base the last three or four decades. i do not think our economy is going to be back in check until we hold these corporations accountable and bring them back under control. host: my question to you is what would you consider a good economy? would it be lower inflation rates? would it be a high dollar? tell me what a good u.s. economy would look like for you. caller: a good economy is not

where we get things for free but where we have things that are affordable. a good economy is a free market where every industry has a good number of small businesses -- i mean, corporations and small businesses -- to where the competition is present and the consumer rules the market. host: ok. let's go to john calling from tampa, florida. good morning. caller: good morning. i am calling because i kind of disagree with you are previous caller. our economy is a consumer driven economy that relies on people spending money on goods and services. goods and services create demand. by creating demand you create jobs. as far as people coming into this country goes, the first

thing people become when they enter this country is a consumer. they have to have a place to live, the have to buy food, they have to get a job. along those same lines are birthrates. it has been declining for decades. we have a problem with social security. there are two ways to fix that -- raise taxes or widen the tax base. people come into this country, they start paying taxes, they start paying social security. if you want to solve a lot of problems in this country -- there is a labor problem. there is jobs that people in this country don't want to do. they do not want to pick fruit. they do not want to pick vegetables. if you want to solve a lot of the problems in this country, the thing to do is start accepting people into this country and telling them, look,

as long as you obey the laws, as long as you are willing to work hard, then you are welcome to come to this country. it would drastically solve a lot of the problems we have. host: you started out by talking about how you think it is consumerism that we need. are you doing any shopping today? are you planning on buying more than you did during the last black season? or are you cutting back, waiting for interest rates to go down? caller: my wife and i are in our 70's. our work years are behind us. we are living on fixed incomes. we are not the big consumers. we buy what we need to get by. host: ok. let's go to beth calling from new york city. good morning. caller: hi.

i do not have anything that lofty to say. isele craft -- i sell crafts, one-of-a-kind things. the people i sell to tend to be on the cautious side. one of the ladies that was buying one of my hats has been sniffing around a lot and she finally spent a lot of money. she said, this is crazy. everybody says we are going to have recession. we are doing fine. [laughs] she spent a lot of money, she left happy, she bought a lot of presents. i am happy. it just means they are careful consumers which is fine by me. host: you sell crafts. what are you seeing right now? are you open on black friday? do you see people looking for things, looking for the christmas season?

caller: right now, well, i am selling one-of-a-kind and i am selling person-to-person. it is not a lofty kind of thing. i look people right in the eye when i am selling and i have relationships with people when i am selling to them. it is a little bit different than a lot of the people who are calling in. a lot of people who buy from me are people i have known for a while. they come back which is very nice. and i know how they have done sometimes over several seasons. i have seen them when they have not done well and they have been hanging on before and after covid. they are doing a little bit better.

they are cautious. they are buying. they are doing their own gift wrapping. they are talking about spending more money but they are looking forward. they are not looking over their shoulder. they are not walking hunched. they are carrying themselves looking up which is very nice. there has been a while when people were not doing that. host: would you say you are doing better than you were this time last year as far as sales go or worse? caller: i was not out all that much last year for personal reasons and health. i could not be. but definitely doing better and the people that i have been seeing are doing a little bit better. host: all right.

let's go to bonnie calling from lancaster, pennsylvania. good morning. caller: good morning. thank you so much for taking my call. i am a news junkie, so to speak. i will say this. i listen to c-span quite a bit. i listen to the hearings. i am pessimistic even though i am a senior and the reason i am saying this is because the younger generation, the x generation, i think they are just spending and charging and i do not think in the future they will be as comfortable or have the savings that the seniors today have. the utilities are higher, to raise a child is higher, and i do not know how we are going to be able to continue to pay for the immigrants coming in that we

have to subsidize, that we have to house, that we have to feed. i think our government does not understand. they just do not understand the day-to-day even though we are there constituents. we are going to continue to spend until inflation will go crazy and we are going to keep making money, as far as i can see. the lady who just called, she lives in an area where people have extra money and will buy personalized crafts and items. but in general, you see more people shopping in your marshals or your khol's or even your thrift stores. they are not buying retail and if they do, they are going to charge it and they have to pay down the road. host: are you doing any type of

shopping for the christmas season this year? or are you going to sit back and wait for better times in 2024? caller: i generally get gifts for some of my relatives that are seniors and this year i am not going to do that. i have to pay my utilities. i have to pay my taxes and the money is not there. it is just not there for me. i am on a fixed income as well. the younger people, i see that also. i do not see them going crazy and if they do, they are charging it. charging it is not the way to go because if you do not have the money, you should not spend it. host: all right. earlier this month louisiana senator john kennedy attacked the biden administration for its

policies on wages and inflation. here is what senator kennedy had to say. [video clip] sen. kennedy: the average wage of the average american has gone down after inflation. the appropriate way to look at wage increases is not to look at the aggregate increase. it is looking at the increase after inflation. if you take all of the average wage increases in the united states of america, and you look at the average inflation in the united states of america, workers have actually lost ground. workers today in november of 2023 are actually making less per hour after inflation than they were of february 2021.

do not let anybody tell you wages have made up for this. they have not kept up with inflation and do not let anybody tell you, mr. president, that we are winning the war on high prices. we are getting inflation down. no thanks to the biden administration, and quite frankly, the united states congress. that is thanks to the federal reserve. they had tightened interest rates which has hurt a lot of people but they have gotten inflation down. they had to do it with one arm tied behind their backs because the other way you attack inflation, and the only way we have successfully gotten down, is to have congress do its part and reduce the rate of growth and spending, but we have not done that. we have not done that. since 2019 the population of the

united states of america is up 1.9%. our country has grown 2% since 2019. you know how much our budget has grown? 55%. this inflation is man-made and the man's name is joe biden. host: let's see what some of our social media followers are saying about whether they are pessimistic or optimistic about the economy. here is one from x that says, i am optimistic. i am nearing retirement and have a fixed pension thanks to my union. a post from facebook that says, definitely optimistic. barring unforeseen circumstances we are headed in the right direction. the american economy is like a huge ship that does not easily change direction. five years ago it was headed onto the rocks.

president biden has had the rudder hard over since he was elected to office. that rudder is not gradually returning to midships. another post from facebook that says, optimistic. the economy is a good indicator of how the people of our great nation are going to vote. it is abundantly clear the overall majority have witnessed the epic fail of the joe biden presidency, henceforth, americans are looking for something much better than the abject failure provided by the democratic party. another post from facebook, free market economy goes up and down. nothing to do with biden. one last post. i am hopeful. . inflation is still too high and people cannot afford the basics or any extras. we are resilient people but the government is spending too much and does not have illegal immigration under control, and that hurts the economy.

we want to know whether you are pessimistic or optimistic about the economy. as we begin our black friday and enter our christmas shopping seasonlet's start with chris callingroeastern shore, virginia. od morning. caller: good morning. i am optimistic. i think biden has been masterful at trying to guide this economy out of the nightmare we experienced with covid. people forget covid caused a shutdown across the world. our inflation is amongst the lowest in the world and we, you know, consumables were not being produced. there was very little demand. in trying to climb out of this, it has taken a long time.

this takes time. our response under trump to covid was a disaster. he denied it. we finally addressed it and we are climbing out of it. we are climbing out of this nightmare. there was no recession that was predicted and i am very optimistic. host: how is your personal economy doing? do you find yourself buying more during this upcoming shopping season or are you holding back, hoping for a better year next year? caller: i always save money but it is certainly better than during covid. better than what we experienced in the past. so, i feel that when i talk to people as well. they are feeling a little better even though the republican side

is touting the increase in crime and their immigration and how much the government spends. but trump increased the deficit. he increased our debt and did not get anything done. biden has gotten so much done with climate change, the inflation reduction act. there is building going on everywhere. even in red states he helps everybody. he has done a masterful job. he is like a wise man. host: let's go to fred calling from goose creek, south carolina. good morning. caller: good morning. host: are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy? caller: i could not be more pessimistic. all i have to do is go into the grocery store. all i have to do is go to the gas pump. it is inevitable that we are

going to continue to manufacture money as fast as we can to take care of the two wars we are involved in. to say joe biden is a wise man is hilarious. we are going to continue to print money and we are going to continue to cause inflation, and eventually we are going to have a terrible depression. host: how is this affecting you personally? the shopping season for christmas really begins today. do you see yourself not buying as much as you would have in previous years? or is your wallet about the same and you see it being about the same? caller: my wallet is the same but the money is not as valuable. all you have to go was into the grocery store and look at the price of the things you buy. you see that people are driving used cars over extended periods

of time because they cannot buy a new car. host: all right. let's go to steve calling from st. louis, missouri. good morning. caller: yeah, i am pretty pessimistic. not for myself. i am retired. my wife and i were well taken care of financially, but this is what i think people have to -- look at the young people. i have two kids. all of the people who are optimistic calling in trying to get a mortgage, see what you are going to pay. see what you are going to pay for that interest rate. i think all too often we look at ourselves.

i am ok. i could probably spend a little more this christmas, but i look at the young people, my kids and their friends. i hear what they are saying. i hear what they are saying. cars and mortgages -- excuse me -- that is the big drivers for your income. that is all i got to say. host: the associated press has a story this morning focusing on black friday and what americans are spending. let me read a couple of paragraphs. expect big discounts and other enticements to lure shoppers to stores. retail is worried those may not be enough. consumers are coming under pressure as their savings dwindle and their credit card debt grows.

although they have gotten some relief from easing inflation, many goods and services like meat and rent are still higher than three years ago. barbara lundquist, 85 from illinois, say she and her husband expect to spend about $1000 for holiday gifts for her three adult children, 13 grandchildren and great-grandchildren. but barbara, who continues to work at a local church, says she will be more focused on deals given still high prices on meats and other staples. she plans to buy more gift cards which she helps will stick to her budget. retail is offering big deals for black friday but will shoppers spend? are you spending this year? let us know whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about

the economy. if you are pessimistic, your number is (202)-748-8000. if you are optimistic, your number is (202)-748-8001. keep in mind you can also text us your opinion at (202)-748-8003. let's go back to our phone lines and talk to renell calling from atlanta, georgia. caller: good morning. how are you? optimistic. i think your last caller kind of hit it more on the head for me. i am optimistic. my stocks have done well the last few weeks. i am seeing a positive trend. i think kennedy made a comment about congress not acting. that is the biggest issue. but as the caller mentioned, the

mortgage and the housing market is when i am watching to make sure we are out in the clear and moving back toward a pre-covid state of the economy. but i am optimistic. i think if you look at it through a political lens, you are going to be pessimistic. if you look at it as ones and zeros, you have to be optimistic. host: is it fair for us to judge the economy based on what the economy was during the pandemic? or should we be looking back to pre-pandemic times and saying, hey, this is what it was before covid and we are just coming out of it? should we be comparing what is going on now during what happened last year? caller: no, everything is different since before covid. what people call the new norm is

what you have to use as a filter. i think folks who were fine before covid are fine now. folks who were not prepared or not financially astute or secure in their finances before covid, it impacted them more. it has taken them longer to recover. i am absolutely noticing higher prices in grocery stores and across various markets. but anyone that was ok before covid and had their finances in order, i think they are fine. host: tom calling from jacksonville, florida. good morning. caller: hi, how are you doing today? host: just fine. go ahead. caller: i appreciate "washington journal". i would like you to pull up on the internet what they call the goldilocks zone in economics. that will tell you where

macroeconomists would like the economy to be and how it affects the average person versus the rich. and then ask people where they want to go. that is all i have to say. i appreciate "washington journal", but please pull up the goldilocks zone. host: let's go to andrew calling from new jersey. good morning. caller: yes, good morning. thank you for taking my call. first of all, you look at pre-pandemic or post-pandemic. this country has been floating since richard nixon took us off the gold standard. we continue to print money. the markets goes up and down because when they raise interest rates the only one that gets hurt is if you are getting a mortgage or buying a car or you

have credit card debt, which the average credit card debt is climbing. as far as congress taking any kind of role, they have their own special interests to take care of. it does not affect them when they go into a grocery store. as far as black friday shopping, i am going to do about the same as last year. i limit the gifts i buy for the kids. the adults do not need anything. as far as th stores enticing us by having these discounts, first of all, if anyone worked in retail, they know clothing ores or department stores mark up their products 100%. they are still making money even if they slash to 50%.

the pandemic was all manufactured by big business. host: andrew seems to think covid was caused by big business. john is calling from virginia. good morning. caller: thank you for taking my call. i just want to say that i think everyone is predicting recession. they know what is coming. i am not blaming this economy on joe biden. he is doing the best he can. but people need to realize that this economy is interconnected everywhere. every country that you see today are struggling economically. we are in good shape right now, but i am seeing the way banks are doing business. our economy comes from the banks, how they give loans to the people. they know the recession was on

the way and they will cut every loan they can imagine. i want to say one more thing. whether it is black friday or white friday do not spend money that does not belong to you. do not go out and charge credit cards more and think you are special. americans, we are sick people that are controlled by things we do not need. i think this housing market is absolutely outrageous. when you see a townhouse cost a million dollars something does not add up when my income does not go up. how can i afford a million dollar house when my income did not go up? but again -- host: let me ask you this. you brought up the fact that the banks are predicting recession for next year. if i remember correctly, mark zandi said the banks were predicting recession for 2023.

we are almost at the end and there is no recession. . how much do we believe what the banks are saying? all they said in 2022 was that there was going to be a recession in 2023. no recession. now they are saying there is going to be a recession in 2024. if they are predicting a recession in the future, yeah, at some time there will be a recession, but how do we trust with the banks are saying when they were clearly wrong about 2023? caller: let me say this. people thought -- these people are the ones that gave the loans to the people. they are giving loans to the customers and they see you are not going to get what you are supposed to get in the bank does not give loans to small businesses. that means small businesses are filing for bankruptcy.

once they file for bankruptcy their property will go to the market and we will go into recession. they close down. that is why they have seen that the housing market is not workable. they know the interest rates are high and more people will file bankruptcy, more people will close their houses, like 2007. they're going to take these houses back and resell them. that is my opinion. thank you for taking my call. host: earlier this month president biden went up to belvedere, illinois and delivered remarks on the administration's efforts to boost unions he talked about the economy and who helped build america and got us to this point right now. let's hear what president biden had to say earlier this month.

[video clip] [applause] pres. biden: i called shawn to congratulate him and he said it goes to all of you out there, and it does. it does not hurt to have a leader with a backbone like a ramrod. [applause] the uaw proved what i always believed. wall street did not build america. the middle-class built america. >> yeah! [applause] pres. biden: unions built the middle-class. [cheering and applause] it is still true today and americans know it. that is why unions are more popular today than they have been in decades. [applause] six weeks ago i went to belvedere, michigan to join your brothers and sisters on the picket line. i brought back memories of when i was a senator.

but i've did not realize it was the first time a president ever did that. [cheering and applause] it was second nature and i did not know that. >> it looks good on you. pres. biden: thank you. i have worn the shirt a lot. i have been involved in the uaw longer than you were alive. [laughter] you guys sacrificed to save the automobile industry. that is a fact. some of you are not around. you were too young. i mean it. but the financial crisis more than a decade ago, now the auto companies are doing well. auto workers should be doing well. [applause] you saved the auto industry. they should step up for you. a simple proposition. you kept the picket line going for 46 days. you cap negotiations working around the clock.

in the end, the deal you reached set a new standard. over 30% increase in wages and cost-of-living adjustments. bigger pay increases over the next 4.5 years than the last 22 years combined. host: let's see what some of our social media followers are saying about whether they are pessimistic or optimistic about the economy. here is one from facebook that says, recession is likely in the near term. presuming the neoliberal era is over in which the government has been sabotaged the future could be relatively light. here is a post that says, i am optimistic i am going to spend more on groceries, gas, and essentials under this reverse robin hood. another post that says, the economy and i are doing good. another post that says, i am

pessimistic. my husband and i continue to use our credit card for unexpected expenses even though we both work full-time. we do not go out, we do not buy excessively, we need new appliances but no hope of upgrading soon. one final post that says, my pocketbook disagrees with the economists every time i go to the supermarket. our question to you this morning -- are you pessimistic or optimistic about the u.s. economy? if you are pessimistic, it is (202)-748-8000. if you are optimistic, (202)-748-8001. you can keep texting us at (202)-748-8003. we are always reading on social media on facebook at facebook.com/c-span and on x @ cspanwj. cindy is calling from connecticut. good morning. caller: good morning. happy thanksgiving weekend.

i will not be buying anything on black friday. i have not done it in several years. i find the quality of stuff is junkie for the money. everything is expensive. i give my kids money every christmas so they can pay their bills. one small one bedroom room for rent is maybe 15 by 30 and almost $1000 a month. rents is unaffordable, housing is unaffordable, especially for the younger generation. i am kind of pessimistic for them. they are discouraged. they do not see them ever owning a home. they can barely afford to eat. that is how i see it by my own family and what their struggles are. and we have decent paying jobs. but everything is going up. car repairs are double what they

were two years ago. everything is double and tripled in price. it is hard for them to keep up. i give my kids money to help them out. host: let's go to ramona calling from georgia. good morning. caller: hello. thank you for taking my call. i wanted to say i paid $2.67 per gallon for gas and that is remarkable to me. i appreciate that. another thing i wanted to say is i just bought a 2017 nissan versa. $800 left on it and i got a loan for $2000 and they wanted me to pay back $2700, and i did.

and i got 22 grandkids and four kids. they are all over 40-years-old -- they are 40-years-old down to 25-years-old. they are all working and doing good. i am optimistic. i have a mind of my own. i am not gubbels. i am not stupid. sometimes you have to have common sense and not listen to everything you hear. use your common sense. everybody got an interest, everybody got a reason, and they want your ear, they want your mind. i love biden and that is who i

am going to vote for. host: let's go to harmon calling from seattle, washington. good morning. caller: good morning. host: go ahead. caller: i am optimistic. and i am very disillusioned by why you, one of my favorite channels, not do more stories about good things joe biden has done. all of the big-time news stations, all they do is run him down and say he is not doing anything. that is not true. you need to do some stories about some of the good things he has done. why don't you do some stories, you know, tell the true story about some of the good things he has done? bringing down the cost of medicines and all these kinds of

things. you never do any stories about that. why is it always the negative about joe biden? you want that moron trump to come back because they make more money was all of their commercials and things. i would like for you to do some stories about optimistic things going on in the country. host: all right. let's go to lawuane calling from georgia. caller: can you hear me? host: go ahead. caller: i watched this program the last 15 years since i retired. you can tell the republican from the state they come from. you got florida down there. i just went down there, me and my wife, looking at a brand-new vehicle.

$73,000. i retired from a union job. i made $55,000 retired. my wife made about $30,000 a year. been all over the world the last two years. my son, my baby boy, cooked a big thanksgiving for their family. my daughter and her husband down in florida with his family. they make half a million, three quarters of a million. my baby boy and his wife make about a quarter of a million. i hear these people calling from florida. you cannot even afford house insurance in florida. my dad in law just died two

years ago. he had the house at 80 something years old, he had it all tied up with reverse mortgage. we offered them more money than they accepted because they thought they were going to hustle us. they took less money when it went on the market. we stayed 250 miles from daytona. we went and looked at a car last friday for $73,000. my wife did not want to pay for it brand-new. i brand-new lexus. i, on here and i listen -- i come on here and listen to these white republicans and they want to bash joe biden. joe biden took over an economy that absolutely collapsed. you have donald trump telling people not to wear a mask during a pandemic, a pandemic, can you

imagine? how ridiculous is that? you have the governor down in florida stopped taking the death toll down and fired the woman taking them. you cannot believe some of the things going on in the usa today. host: earlier this month senate minority whip attacked biden omics. here's what senator thoone had to say. [video clip] >> prices have increased 17.6%.

their purchasing power has eroded almost 20%. food is 21% increase, energy 40% increase, gasoline 55% increase. this is what you get. this is bidenomics in action. president biden is meeting with president xi this week and china is a huge economic competitor of ours. i think if we are going to be competitive with china economically, we have got to do several things. one is we have got to increase domestic energy production. we have huge resources here at home. the president and his administration have taken us off the playing field when it comes to domestic energy supply, and that has a huge impact on inflation. we need to reengage on trade. this administration has been missing in action when it comes to trade, particularly in that region of the world where china

operates. if the united states were engaged and doing business with other countries in that part of the world, it would make us not only much more competitive but more secure, because trade is a national security issue as well. i would hope that tomorrow when the president meets with president xi that he talks about and gets america on offense on issues that will impact our economy in a positive way, make us more competitive with china, and lower the cost for american workers. that is dealing with energy, trade, and that is engaging on economic issues that are important to the pocketbooks of every american. host: let's go back to our phone lines and talk to mike calling from portland, oregon. good morning. caller: morning. i am autistic.

85% of people with autism as adults are unemployed. i was on c-span at one time. we were talking about getting money out of politics. i said that all you have to do -- you can solve it today. taking it back to the 1970's when every candidate was able to speak. and the broadcast was legally obligated to give equal time. the corporations will give equal

time to every candidate, even if it is like 40 different candidates. host: i understand what you are saying but we are talking about the economy this morning. are you pessimistic or optimistic about the current u.s. economy? caller: i am autistic and i think that if we were to have more people like me in the economy, in other words, working , then we would get more income going into the government through taxes.

we go and recalculate the tax system to where it was in the 1970's where people making a billion dollars paid 90% of their taxes above their income level of, say, $1 billion. host: patricia calling from indiana. good morning. caller: good morning. i would like to say i am very optimistic, very pleased with president biden, but the mistake they are making is they need to advertise and put the names up of all the republicans who voted against the price gouging bill. president biden does not set gas prices.

that is done by the saudis. they determine what the price is going to be. but kroger, publix, they are showing massive profits. if the democrats do not use this, well, they should, because that is going to get to some people at least. host: let's talk to lee calling from florida. good morning. caller: good morning. i am on the pessimistic side. i worked all my life, saving my money, and with this new trillions they passed in un funded taxes how were they going to pay for it? they have not got the taxes. they are getting more and more people in that are not on the tax rolls. i do not know what they are going to do. i have no idea what to do. host: when you say they are

getting citizens not on the tax rolls, who are you talking about? caller: we have got, from what i understand, we have approximately 4 million illegals in this country. they are not on the tax rolls. host: but they pay taxes. caller: maybe the local taxes but they are not paying it into the federal government tax end which they collect in the end. is that not correct? host: let's go to ray calling from pittsburgh. good morning. caller: good morning. i don't really have a line you could put me in as optimistic or pessimistic. i do not think inflation exists. i think it is a word people use to get themselves off the hook. you look at corporations and the government. corporations raise their prices as high as they want and you say, why? inflation. the government says, oh, we

cannot do anything about this, it is inflation. they just talk and talk and talk. the talking heads on the news talk about inflation. now, i believe it is just corporate greed. an example or two i can give you -- and please let me give them, because people have to start thinking this way. there was an egg shortage supposedly. the avian flu and all this other crap so the price of eggs went up from a dollar a dozen to six dollars a dozen. i just heard a little while back but this one producer was making millions more post-pandemic than pre. why would that happen? if inflation is only 8%, he would only have to raise prices 8% to make his profits. instead they are making millions more than they may before.

why is that? host: let's talk to carl calling from alabama. good morning. caller: good morning. i am optimistic. president biden is doing a pretty good job. if you listen to the republicans, the maga republicans, people want you to believe the sky is falling. falling. they talk like everybody in america is living in poverty or about to and i do not think the country or the economy is that bad. we have challenges, but i do not think it is that bad. prices are high. they talk as if everything was peaches and roses under trump. that is the play. they will do whatever they can to get trump back into office.

i think joe biden has done a decent job. he has room for improvement but i do not think the country is in that bad of shape. host: let's talk to paul from yuma, arizona. caller: good morning. we sure have a bunch of chicken littles. the last house i bought was 1998 and 1999 and i had 11.2% mortgage rate. these people, i am 77, i have bought and sold many houses. most of them were in the 5% to 7% range which was normal through the 1970's and of 1980's. now let's talk about the economy. if the people, these chicken littles who keep thinking the sky is falling and biden has so much power, he sets food prices

come every price in the country is set by the president, he is busy in that oval office. let's look at recessions. clayton, great economy. bush, massive depression. obama, great economy. trump rides it for two years and does not do anything but give a massive tax cut to the rich. he played one year of golf out of those four years if you add up the totals. if we elect a president and he comes from the republican party -- host: we like to thank all of our callers who participate in our segment. we be used by cnbc retail

reporter melissa repko will be here to talk about the economy and consumer confidence as the all-important holiday shopping season begins. and later, open enrollment for health insurance through the affordable care act is underway. paragon health president brian blais joins us to ask how these exchanges work and if they are a good deal for consumers. we will be right back. >> american history tv, saturdays on c-span two, exploring the people and events that tell the american story. a look at how a community in ohio has addressed the issue of racial segregation. and at 6:30 a discussion on

president kennedy's mystique with university of virginia president ken hughes and the host of the washington times history as it happens podcast. exploring the american story. watch american history tv saturdays on c-span2 and find a full schedule on your program guide or watch any time at c-span.org/history. >> author and uc berkeley law professor joins book tv to talk -- the bush and trump administration and more. in the recently published politically incorrect guide to the supreme court.

join for phone calls, facebook comments, and texts. in depth with john yoo on book tv on c-span2. >> c-span's campaign 2024 coverage continues with the presidential primaries. watch live on the c-span network as the first votes are cast in the upcoming presidential election. beginning with the iowa caucus on january 15 and the new hampshire primary on january 23. campaign 2024 on c-span, your unfiltered view of politics. >> citizens are truly informed our republic thrives.

get informed straight from the sources on c-span. unfiltered, unbiased, word for word, from the nation's capital to wherever you are, because the opinion that matters the most is your own. this is what democracy looks like. c-span, powered by cable. >> "washington journal" continues. host: we are joined by cnbc consumer reporter melissa repko who is joining us to discuss consumer confidence, holiday retail expectations, and the economy. good morning. guest: good morning. host: i have been doing a lot of talking about black friday it in the back of our minds we see these people standing at the doors when the stores open trying to rush into get good deals. is black friday really a thing anymore in the u.s. economy in retail? guest: that is a fair question.

black friday is more of a state of mind because it is starting earlier than ever. a lot of these sales have been pushed up to early november and that has held over from the pandemic when retailers offered those deals much earlier. this is a year when promotions matter. we know consumers are being more budget conscious so it makes these holidays more meaningful. today is supposed to be the biggest in-store traffic day. we are hearing from a lot of ceos and cfo's that these promotional events are what is causing shoppers to respond. host: how did the pandemic change black friday? did that push many people to online sales instead of being in-store fighting with other consumers? guest: there are two keyways the pandemic change black friday. already before the pandemic a lot of retailers were pushing up the start of the season and they were opening stores late on thursday night and people would

go after their thanksgiving dinner to stores. with the pandemic retailers were trying to spread out those sales. they ended up pushing the start date of black friday deals even earlier and that is something that has persisted. the something -- the second thing that has changed is as people shop online more it changes the pattern of when people go to stores and when they shop. a lot of the deals hitting around cyber monday when it was a traditional online shopping holiday are combining with black friday and people are shopping and more of a hybrid way, sometimes in stores, sometimes using curbside pickup, and those habits have stuck around. host: what kind of year are we predicting for retailers? do they expect to see more consumers, fewer consumers? guest: the holiday forecast is supposed to rise 3% to 4%.

on the one hand that is much lower than the double-digit gains retailers saw in the past two years. the 3% to 4% forecast, if it ends up being accurate, would be on par with the pre-pandemic level of growth. we are going back to some of that pre-pandemic pattern where consumers are being choosier and not spending as freely as they did the past few years. host: earlier we had a caller called in and said they were not seeing many discounts because they thought the retail owners were raising prices before black friday so they could pretend to cut them down. our shoppers finding any real bargains right now? guest: it depends on what you are buying. in some categories prices are lower than they were before the

pandemic. the best buy ceo mentioned most of their consumer electronics are below what they were two years ago. that is how promotional the environment has become because people are not buying consumer electronics like laptops and phones like they were. a lot of people -- those are items people make and do not make for a while. that categories seeing deflation. other areas are elevated. the walmart ceo said that even as things like eggs are cheaper there are a lot of drive pantry food items that are more expensive and that means people make trade-offs as they pay more for some grocery items they are going to have to get a cheaper christmas present or look for ways to save on their christmas decorations. you are seeing different categories where there is some inflation and some price relief.

host: this is a good point to stop and see if any of our viewers want to take part in this conversation. will open up regional lines. if you are in the eastern or central time zone we want you to call (202) 748-8000. if you are in the pacific or mountain time zones, your number will be (202) 748-8001. once again, eastern or central time zones, (202) 748-8000. mountain and pacific time zones, (202) 748-8001. keep in mind we are always reading on social media on x at @cspanwj and on facebook at c-span.com -- at facebook.com/c-span. i want to tell units. sigh had. i was trying to buy -- i want to

tell you about an experience i had. i went to a store to buy a mouse and keyboard and could not find anyone on the floor to open the box. i headed up waiting about 15 minutes. what is the retail labor market looking like? is there anybody working in the stores to help consumers? guest: by and large we are not hearing as many retail executives speak about a labor shortage. it seems to have eased. that being said there is pressure on the customer service experience, especially some of the retailers are locking up more items than they did before to prevent theft and that makes having the right employee ratio important. it is also a factor that in some cases companies are being more careful. it is not just an issue of our their candidates available, but we are in a period where retailers are being more cautious about their spending.

they realize overall sales are under pressure and that means there watching their cost more carefully and that means the store -- rather than had trouble hiring job candidates. host: i want to read more from a story you have out today and talk about how these retailers are doing because this is from your story, retailers try to convince reluctant shoppers to spend. you write "over the past two weeks, many retailers have said shoppers have made fewer store trips, postponed big purchases, or held out for better deals. this week close, best buy, and polls, all cut their sales forecast. even some retailers such as dick's sporting goods referred to dynamics outside of their

control that can dampen spending." are we seeing a bad shopping season for these retailers today? guest: it is too soon to say. the biggest weeks are still ahead of us. that being said, there seems to be a shift to later in the season compares to a year ago. walmart had a week back half of october. a year ago it had seen shoppers trying to buy gifts earlier. that dynamic has shifted. as the early holiday shopping is being delayed it puts more importance on events like black friday, cyber monday, and the weekends ahead. host: something you've already mentioned is something you're watching is deflation. we have heard a lot about inflation. explain to us what you mean by deflation and how it matters. guest: deflation, we are

starting to see early signs in some categories of deflation. we mean prices going down, not just leveling off. we have seen government numbers indicating inflation is cooling. inflation cooling means prices are not going up as much. they might be leveling up. -- they might be leveling off but not decreasing. if people are paying the same price for milk that is not necessarily -- walmart says they are seeing some signs of deflation. best buy is seeing that with consumer-electronics. other giftgiving categories are seeing signs of deflation. walmart mentioned that with toys, some of the general categories people tend to shop during the holiday season are seeing relief because there is less demand than before. it is a combination of consumers buying fewer items so prices are

coming down, but also retailers have been able to pass along savings to customers because they are not spending as much on supply chain costs as they were during the pandemic. they can cut the price of the barbie dream house in the case of walmart or other items to ease the pressure and be able to afford holiday gifts. host: lets let some of our viewers join the conversation. tim is calling from new york. good morning. caller: good morning. i would like you to address three points. number one, i think it is a good thing that consumerism is cooling because -- was it because of joe biden's economy the fed was raising interest rates? there is a correlation there.

two, joe biden does not control the economy as much as some people would like to believe. he has nothing to do with gas prices. that is right there. here is another thing. all of the naysayers that disapprove of joe biden's economy, i promise you, move out of the country, go elsewhere and see what their economies are like and what you would be paying in taxes. if you do not like what you are doing here you will hate what is out there. good luck. thank you very much. guest: the point about pulling consumer spending -- the point about cooling consumer spending is interesting and as mentioned the fed has been raising interest rates to cool the economy because interest rates -- because inflation has been going up so much.

if consumers are spending less that could be good news for the soft landing. the soft landing is the theory that we will end up in an economy where the inflation rate is cool but we are not to into a recession. that is the bowl of the federal reserve and it is a tricky thing to achieve. if consumer spending is slowing down that could be good news for the economy because it may signal to the federal reserve they can stop raising interest rates because they are comfortable with the level of inflation cooling, and that may make for the end of this rate hike period. that could be the silverlining of a potentially more modest holiday season. host: here is a question you brought up earlier when we were talking about the big companies. we were talking about supply chain issues. during the pandemic, that was a big thing, we saw all of the trouble at the ports and the truckers moving threes through

the country -- moving things through the country. where are our supply chain issues into the shopping season? guest: it is dramatically different than a year ago. last holiday season retailers were entering with way too much inventory because they were coming off a period where people were buying tons of throw pillows and pet toys and a lot of things for the home and working from home, all of the different categories. all of that inventory was arriving late. retailers like target were dealing with a glut of inventory into last holiday season because all of the different freight arriving at the wrong time and people starting to shift away from those popular pandemic categories. this holiday season retailers are in good shape when it comes to their inventory because they are back to more predictable shipments and they very much pulled back on the amount they are ordering because they are more nervous that as consumers

are more budget conscious they will not be buying as much stuff, so they've been placing bets on certain items more strategically. it does amount to a different dynamic where the supply chain is back to what it was pre-pandemic and that means for retailers, they are in a healthier position with not too much inventory in a conservative bet on different categories for the holiday season. host: one of our social media followers has a question on what the shopping season now looks like versus the shopping season pre-pandemic and i will read the question. "how is the 2023 shopping season comparing to the 2019 pre-pandemic shopping season per person per region? what part of the spending moved to online shopping and how are the small stores been hurt by

the pandemic forced closure? " can you address some of those? guest: the majority of retail sales still happened in the store. that is a supplies to people. even now a lot of sales still happened in the store, the vast majority. retailers have had more of a blurring between online and in-store. curbside pickup has become a tremendously big business for a lot of retailers, including small business that have added this option and found people like it. during the pandemic curbside pickup orders were used to keep people safe. now people are using them as they have a busier life to have a convenient option. pickup sales are a good example -- in some cases people would

consider that a store purchase because people are coming to retrieve it by walking to the store, but they are made online. it is a good indication of how the shopping world has become more blurred and how a lot of those popular pandemic shopping options have persisted because people are having more busy lives. one example of how that has affected small businesses is walmart has started selling services, including to small businesses. small businesses like a bakery can buy walmart's technology platform to run its own curbside pickup. it is a way walmart is making money but also bakeries and small shops could potentially use that software to power a business that is more similar to what a big publicly traded company may have. host: how are small businesses -- what are small businesses looking forward to in this

retail season as opposed to the big box stores and corporations? are they doing just as well? guest: that is a good question. i do not follow the small businesses closely because they're not publicly traded. one thing that could work to small businesses advantage is there's more pressure to motivate shoppers. one thing that could motivate shoppers is the feeling what they are shopping for is unique. some small businesses excel and having something that is a unique item, something that is local, something that is special. in this climate where shoppers are being more selective, that could help them stand out from the big box store where that item is available across the country. host: let's go back to our phone lines and talk to john from lincoln, nebraska. good morning. caller: thank you for taking my call. i am not too optimistic about the economy.

i think it is been going downhill for a while. i feel the middle class is shrinking. i see a lot of millenials and gen z, some of them are buying houses and not following through with the payments. life happens. people lose their jobs. the reality of the situation is things are getting more expensive and our population is not shrinking. i think it is growing. i think there allowing immigrants across the border. i think both sides are letting this happen so the population does not drop in that place an important part in the economy. i feel like that is the reason prices will not drop. it is a capitalist society, you can charge whatever you want. let's get rid of all the regulations and see what happens. we know what happens if you look at history.

poor people become violent and then they get money and they come into power. they don't want to lose their power. you look at the mafia. immigrants come. i hope someday some illegal immigrants give me a decent paying job. it is not happening under the people running this country right now. host: are things getting more expensive as we look to the shopping season? are prices going up or going down? where are we as far as prices in the shopping season goes? guest: the last consumer price index report showed inflation had been the same month over month from september to october. that is a potentially hopeful sign. that being said, walmart ceo has acknowledged there are parts of the store that are seeing sticky inflation. walmart is the largest retailer in the world. if it is saying is having a hard

time negotiating with vendors to bring down prices, it just speaks to how sticky inflation can be. even if prices are not going up and they are staying at the same level, that is hard for consumers that is something retailers are aware of. target has been touting it has a lot of hot toys for under $25. we are seeing that value message across the board because retailers are aware consumers have been feeling more than a year of inflated prices. even if there is some relief coming where they are feeling some relief in categories like consumer-electronics, that is still after month after month of higher grocery bills, higher housing costs, and now we are seeing higher mortgage rates, higher costs for borrowing on a credit card. all of those things add up and it can make things feel more expensive even as categories are seeing things level off or go down. host: are there areas that

consumers listening to c-span right now should be looking to find gifts and deals? is it television, is it toys, is it clothing? where should our viewers be looking to find the best deals? guest: general merchandise, the nonfood categories, toys would be one, apparel would be another , consumer-electronics would be another. those are the areas where you will see deals. adobe in a licks looked at the online sales -- adobe analytics looked at online sales ended october discounting levels were higher than a year ago. there are a lot of good deals to be had and it is often in more of those nonfood categories. even if you are paying less for a toy, if you're paying more for groceries that may make you want a cheaper toy. you may want 50% off instead of 20% off.

that is the trickiest of people making trade-offs as they juggle a lot of things in the budget. host: let's talk to nick from baker, louisiana. caller: good morning. that pandemic made a big difference in what we are doing. i want to say president biden has been doing an excellent job of curtailing what we are doing. this is the thing. i cannot get anybody to understand that a millionaire and a billionaire control this market. it controls the market, the way things go. republicans always was with the

millionaires and billionaires. the economy will always be the economy. the pandemic has made this economy the way it is. i looked at the 1930's on up. every house has to have some kind of bargain, you have to bargain with yourself what you buy and how you by. host: go ahead and respond. guest: he is like that the pandemic did change the way a lot of things are done. we talked about the shift to e-commerce and the embrace of things like curbside pickup. the other things the pandemic changed his people were buying a lot of things and now do not

need to replace those things. if you've got a new refrigerator, this came up on a recent call i had with the lowes ceo, they are seeing much lower sales on appliances. if your refrigerator is not broken or your dishwasher is not broken you will not upgrade during a period like this when you're trying to watch the budget. that being said you may have already gotten a more high-tech refrigerator or dishwasher and that is the same thing with a computer monitor or laptop or new tv. people made a ton of purchases during the last few years andyoe thinking of something you have not already bought for your sister-in-law. it does create a challenge for retailers when they are following a period of extreme spending. they were stuck in their houses for multiple years and there has been a priority on experiences. we have seen that with the popularity of taylor swift

tickets. people want to have those experiences meaning that they are taking their brother out for a nice meal instead of getting him a new set of headphones. and so that is the dynamic that the retailers are facing. the pattern of shopping and what people want was turned upside down by such an unusual period of spending and people buying so many goods and now over correcting and potentially not needing a lot of those things as budget consciousness also hits. host: sale from -- phil from maryland. good morning. caller: good morning. a few things. on walmart, i can tell you -- host: we seem to be having a problem hearing phil, so we are going to mike from georgia. good morning. caller: good morning. my question is that i would like

melissa to make some comments about restaurant pricing, and the way that it started with the pre-pandemic, through the pandemic and what the outlook is for it now. it is supposed to be very out -- very elevated. guest: can you speak to that? a little bit. i do not cover restaurants like retail. that is another part of the economy that has seen inflation. you are not alone in noticing that restaurant bills have gone up, even a lot of quick service restaurants have raised prices. so if you buy the same burrito before the pandemic you will notice the difference. that is another example of part of the budget that has become more significant for people as they pay more for restaurants. they might not pay as much as a trip to walmart. one of the things that the chief financial officer told me is that walmart was seeing some signs of people buying more of

those little kitchen appliances, a smoothie maker or toaster oven because there was evidence that they were cooking more at home. that could be because they are trying to save and not go out as much and instead make their own meals. host: quickly before i let you go. we talked a lot about how shopping and retail changed during the pandemic. what we consider this season our first real true post-pandemic shopping season? is this the new normal? guest: i think that is fair to say. i think this is the first year that year-over-year holiday shales -- sales are supposed to be in line and we are seeing a return to the same kind of discounting level three pandemic. that being said there are a set of unique factors. we are following a year of elevated prices, so that is going to be a big factor and the way people shop has changed from the pandemic.

it is hard to say if this is the post-pandemic world or another twist on an unusual time. it will be a definitely very interesting holiday season to watch. host: we would like to thank melissa who is a report -- a retail reporter for cnbc for discussing holiday retail expectations. thank you so much for being with us this morning. guest: thank you and happy holidays. host: coming up next, we will take more of your phone calls on today's questions. are you optimistic or pessimistic about the u.s. economy? later on, open enrollment for health insurance through the affordable care act is now underway. paragon health institute president brian blase joins us to talk about how the aca exchange works for and whether they are a good deal for consumers. we will be right back. ♪ >> avoid the crazy store rush

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at c-span.org or download the podcasts on c-span now, our free mobile app, or wherever you get your podcasts. c-span's studentcam documentary is back celebrating 20 years with the theme looking forward while considering the past. we are asking middle and high school students to create a video addressing one of these questions. in the next 20 years what is the most important change you would like to see in america? or over the past 20 years, what has been the most important change? as we do each year we are giving away $100,000 with a grand prize of $5,000 and every teacher who has students participate has an opportunity to share an additional $50,000.

the competition deadline is friday, january 19, 2024. for more information visit studentcam.org. >> a healthy democracy does not just look like this. it looks like this, where americans can see democracy at work, and where citizens are informed, a republic thrives. get informed straight from the source. unfiltered, unbiased, word for word. the opinion that matters most is your own. this is what democracy looks like. c-span, powered by cable. >> washington journal continues. host: we are back and we are going back to our question of the day. are you optimistic or pessimistic about the u.s. economy as we enter the christmas shopping season. we will open up special lines.

if you are pessimistic about u.s. economy you want to hear from you at 202-748-8000. if you are optimistic about the u.s. economy, your number is 202-748-8001. keep in mind that you can always text us at 202-748-8003. and we are always reading on social media on x and on facebook. earlier this month, one group that said it was somewhat pessimistic about the u.s. economy is the financial services, moody's. they lowered their outlook on the u.s. credit rating. we have a story about -- about this and i want to read a couple of paragraphs to you. "moody's lowered its outlook on the u.s. credit rating to negative but stable citing large

fiscal deficit and a decline in debt affordability, a move that grew immediate criticism from president joe biden's administration. the move follows a rate downgrade of the sovereign by fitch, which came after months of political brinkmanship around the u.s. debt ceiling. federal spending and political polarization has been a rising concern for investors contributing to a selloff that took u.s. government bonds to the lowest level in 16 years. it is hard to disagree with the rest -- with the rationale, but no reasonable expectation for physical -- fiscal consolidation said christopher. deficits will remain large and as interest costs take up a larger share of the burden -- the budget, the debt burden will grow." this coming from "reuters" with

moody downgrading u.s. credit from stable to negative. now some u.s. officials disagree with what the financial services are saying about our economy. earlier this month, janet yellen held a news conference in san francisco. she explained why she disagrees with moody, and the shift to the negative outlook to the aaa credit rating. here's what she had to say. [video clip] >> with the moody's decision, they maintain the u.s. aaa rating, but indicated that there is a negative outlook. this is a decision that i disagree with. the economy is fundamentally strong and treasury securities remain the world's premier asset. we have enjoyed over the past

several years a historically fast economic recovery from a deep recession, and unemployment rates near historic lows, inflation has come down significantly, and our economy grew by almost 5% in the third quarter. it is true that resilient economic growth has been a factor pushing up interest rates recently but this underlines the fundamental strength of the u.s. economy and not weakness. it is true that higher interest rates if they last do create a challenge, and additional challenge to sustainability. the president and i are completely committed to a credible and sustainable fiscal path. the president has signed into law $1 trillion over the next

decade in deficit reduction which has made very meaningful investments that will raise our tax collections by investing in the internal revenue service and put in place a corporate minimum tax and limit spending on prescription drugs. the president has proposed an additional $2.5 trillion of deficit reduction over the next decade in addition to what has already been done with reductions in the bipartisan agreement earlier this year. [end video clip] host: once again our question for you, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the u.s. economy. if you are pessimistic, 202-748-8000. if you are optimistic, 202-748-8001. keep in mind that you can always text us at 202-748-8002.

-- 202-748-8003. and we are always reading on social media on facebook.com/c-span and at c-spanwj. the "wall street journal" has a story about how the american -- that talks about the american dream and how americans feel about it and how thoughts about the economy are affecting the economic outlook. i will read a couple of paragraphs to you before we get started on the calls. "the american dream that says that anyone that works hard can get ahead regardless of their background has slipped out of reach in the minds of many americans. only 36% of voters in a new " wall street journal" survey says that the american dream holds true. substantially fewer 53% who said so in 2012 and 48% in 2016 in similar surveys of adults.

when the pole asked last year were the people who work hard were likely to get ahead in this country, some 68% said yes, nearly twice the share as in the new pole. the survey offers the latest evidence that americans across the political spectrum are stealing economically fragile and uncertain that the ladder to higher living standards remain sturdy. even amid many signs of economic and social progress." that comes from "the wall street journal" where the american see the american dream slipping out of reach. this comes as we hit the black friday and christmas shopping season. where are you when you look at the economy? are you pessimistic and do you think it will get worse? or are you optimistic seeing that better days are right around the corner. let us start by talking to grayson from north carolina.

good morning. caller: hello there. for the article, i am optimistic. and i am optimistic not so much on real estate or homebuying, but on retail because of the -- what was i going to say -- i want these millenials that went to community -- i am one of these millenials who went to community college. truck driving, train lines and airline freight, if they can deliver goods, most of our basic retail should be ok for the average kind of millennial age rate -- age range consumer. that is about it. you all have a good one. host: let us talk to steve from oak ridge, tennessee. good morning. caller: good morning.

i am optimistic. i will tell you why. i am 74-year-old, i taught school for years, i had a good education. we have social security and we have not had a house payment since 1994. we have been through good times and bad times. i want to talk for one second about inflation and what has happened. i will give you three good examples, it is called price gouging. my friend was in a one-room accountant -- apartment and she was paying $500 a month. and then the landlord raised everybody's rent $200. i had an electrician come who tried to double charge me for what i did. i called bs. i had a friend who was a widow who had a faucet leakage and mr.

good wrench charged or $900 to change her faucet. what is going on is price gouging. i bought a new car, and i bought a 2022 and i got a good deal and 2.9% financing. so you have to get out there and hang in there because things are turning back around. biden did not cause this, the pandemic dead. thank you, jesse. host: cj from bloomington, minnesota. caller: good morning to you, good morning america, and i hope you had a happy holiday. i want to say that started this whole thing for the credit rating for the country was during the obama administration when they shut down the country and that lowered our aaa credit again -- credit rating and all

of this time it has been going die own, and through all of his eight years in office, the congress was going against their own leader and they did not care about losing the credit rating and they did not care about nothing but stopping him. and then they put trump in there that made it worse. of course we are queuing to keep moving down as long as leaders do not step up to the plate. we will get purged from the system completely with the leadership who does not want the current president and that it will always keep going down. that is what ica -- that is what i see. host: antonio from wisconsin. good morning. caller: good morning. i believe that the economy is -- i am very hopeful about the economy. i believe that the economy is fundamentally sound. and secretary yellen spoke about it being fundamentally sound.

host: ok. well, we asked the same question whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about the economy to moody's chief economist on the program earlier this week. i want to bring you what mark said when we asked whether he was pessimistic or optimistic about the economy. here is what he said. [video clip] >> i am optimistic. i think the economy is performing well. a year ago we probably did not. there was a lot of concern about a recession meaning lots of lost jobs and rising unemployment in 2023 that did not happen. the economy created lots of jobs, almost 3 million and unemployment remained low. the thing that really has been a bothering americans is a high inflation and we have good news there as well, inflation has moderated.

it is too high, that it is moving in the right direction. and stock prices and housing values, things that matter for people they have held their own despite higher interest rates. all in all, i am optimistic. we have done surprisingly well, and i think it will continue to do so in the coming year. >> does that mean we are out of the woods for a post-covid recession, because that was a conversation for a long time? >> not out of the woods yet. i would not declare victory. we will wait for the federal reserve to start lowering interest rates. once the federal reserve starts lowering interest rates they are saying that the coast is clear. something that everyone can feel more comfortable with. once that happens, i think we can breathe a sigh of relief and feel like we have gotten to the other side. i will say that the risks have

receded. and a year ago if you said what was the possibility of recession i would've said close to even. and now may be 25%, one in four. still too high, but receding. [end video clip] host: let us talk to clive from oklahoma. you are on. go ahead. caller: it is kind of like the devil's economy. it will get better. things are still high with food and stuff like that. but when you are dealing with a bad economy, it will get better. covid-19 started it. and that is a fact. we are dealing with the political devil over the government, you know? what can you do?

host: let us look at the u.s. inflation and the consumer price index and see where it stands where it comes to inflation. this comes from the new york times. the overall consumer price index fell in october on a year-over-year basis. lower than the three point seven reading in september, and the coolest since july. that is owed to more moderate energy prices. even with volatile food and fuel prices, a closely watched measure rose to 4% in the year for october, slower than the previous reading and weaker than what i expected. inflation has come down meaningfully after peaking at just 9% on an overall basis in

the summer of 2022. this is from the new york times. so looking at the consumer price index, is showing that inflation is down from the 9% where it was in the summer of 2022. but is it to the point where you are optimistic about the u.s. economy? or does inflation and other issues have you concerned? let us ask jack from virginia. good morning. caller: i have a couple comments real quick. prices are -- [indiscernible]

we have the largest oil field in north dakota in the world and they are not releasing the oil. used cars went up approximately $7,000 in the last year. and we have prices that are going up on everything. thank you, and have a good day. host: let us talk to lou from florida. good morning. caller: i would like to say that i think overall the economy is doing well. it is getting better, as you hear the reports coming in. and i have been noticing it going down. and i feel pretty optimistic that it is coming down. and i think biden is doing the

best he can to do that. so, that is all i have to say. thank you very much. host: levi from louisiana. levi, morning. are you there? caller: yes, i am here, can you hear me? host: speak up a little bit, and go ahead. caller: i am optimistic about the economy. i do not know why a lot of people are pessimistic about it. that is all i have to say today. and thank you. host: well, we had on the show earlier today melissa, a retail and consumer reporter from cnbc. and i want to read a couple of paragraphs from her story this morning that talks about where

the retail shopping season sets. so, here is from melissa from this morning. "the chief industry advisor for the market research firm says this year will bring a complex christmas for retailers. the average credit card balance is at a 10 year high. all of it was exceedingly warm in many parts of the country sending -- delaying the need for sweaters or winter coats and a strategy -- in a steady drip of black friday deals started early in november and many retailers have delayed the rush as some shoppers bet that the best deals were coming. early holiday sales have lagged despite many early promotions that coincided with amazon's prime deal event in october and black friday sales in october according to the market research more -- firm. holiday shoppers spent 70 -- 7% less in dollars and 6% less in

units compared with a year ago period. consumers have kind of head -- held back." our question is are you holding back and are you going out and starting your shopping season, or are you buying less than you did in previous years because you are pessimistic about the economy? our question is, are you pessimistic or optimistic about the economy. if you are pessimistic, the number is 202-748-8000. if you are optimistic, 202-748-8001. keep in mind that you can always text us at 202-748-8003. let us talk to jay from new jersey. good morning. are you there? are you there?

can you hear me? ok. let us see what some of our social media followers are saying about whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about the economy. let us start with a post that says "i am pessimistic about the economy. the only optimistic people are ones that work at met -- it weapons manufacturing companies who work for the wars and those that work at pharmaceutical companie because the economy is causing depression and people need big drugs." another says "i do not know how the bank interest rates are so high and yet we are getting little on savings or checking accounts, could someone please explain it?" another one says "i am the pessimist -- i am pessimistic over the inevitable rising

taxes, increasing crime and challenges from abroad and our ever increasing national defense." so, let us go back to the phone lines and let us talk to sal from lake city, south carolina. morning. caller: good morning, i think the economy is doing well. it is getting better and it will be getting better. keep joe biden in the white house and i think it will get less better. host: do you plan to do any black shopping today? how is your personal economy looking? caller: the economy is looking good. we have joe biden the white house and he knows what he is doing. he has been in the center for a long time and he knows what he is going -- what has been going on. he knows what is going on and he

has smart and educated people around him to keep things going. things will get better. if we change that we will be in trouble. the longer we keep people like that in the white house, it will get better. host: sal says the economy is looking good, and president biden is one of the reasons why it is looking good. there is a story in "the new york times" saying something a little different. i want to bring the story to you titled voters are not believing in bidenomics. -- there is good news for president biden in 2024 battlegrounds, which found him trailing in five of six key states when you're before voters head to the polls. that is despite trump being nearly as unpopular and fighting multiple legal battles.

biden holds a six-point lead on trump. a glaring weakness for biden remains the economy, despite signs that he is doing well and efforts by the white house to promote its accomplishments. experts say it is possible for the president to make a comeback but when it comes to economic issues, that is a tough task. 2% of voters said the economy was excellent, the poll found. for biden, that discontent is afflicted in democrats crucial to his reelection. 48% of black voters rated the economy as poor, adds did 59% of voters under 30. zero responded in the age group in arizona, nevada, and wisconsin and rated the economy is excellent. that is from a time/siena poll in the new york times that says

voters are believing invited on external. -- believing and bidenomics right now. let's talk to ronald who called from wilmington, north carolina. good morning. caller: good morning. happy holidays. host: go ahead. caller: i am in the logistics industry and have been for 16 years, and i talk to trucks all over the state. i am primarily in shipping seals these days. -- shipping steals these days. the truck companies i am talking to her hurting, and we are seeing a slowdown in steel orders in the u.s. i find it worrisome. it feels like things are slowly deteriorating in the economy. host: you are in trucking. one of the things we talked about earlier was supply chain

issues. are you seeing fewer people wanting to drive or are you seeing fewer orders from stores? what does it look like from the supply chain side? caller: in what i should being in the people i am talking to, as far as the steel industry goes, i would say general food and merchandise, it is good that fuel prices are slowly coming down and rates and trucks are coming down but truck companies are suffering. they are just trying to keep their head above water at this time. the ones i am talking to. they ship a number of different things, so it gives me an insight, and in my opinion, uh, i remember 2006 and 2007 very

well, the lead up to that and the general feeling and seeing how things are going. it feels like there is a possibility that we are heading towards another downturn that is going to be pretty noticeable at some point here, maybe by 2024. host: all right. let's go to fred from new york. good morning. caller: good morning. happy holidays. host: go ahead, fred. caller: good morning. happy holidays. host: same to you, go ahead, fred. caller: i just calling in regards to people calling in all the time, people talking about things being so high. a lot of people do not waste any time to take a look at what they are buying. they just grab stuff. i see it in the store all the

time, just pick up whatever in the meat department and throw it in their cart, and then they complain about the pricing. people do not shop anymore and to a little conservative how they spend their money. and the credit card is not going to end because the millennias, there was a thing on the internet a few months ago, where they were $3 trillion in debt and credit card debt. people do not think before they spend. some things you go without and you don't need it right at this time. host: all right. let's go to jim from missouri. good morning. caller: jesse, love the show. got my tv muted. i am optimistic, if you cannot see the improvement from when trump left, you are blind.

there were refrigerated morgues outside hospitals and 3000 a day die from covid. countries shut down, joe biden took over, things have definitely come down. our egg prices are down, not six dollars but $2.50. gas prices are significantly lower. our restaurants are full. help wanted sign in every window. we are doing great. we are doing great. everybody is working, things are moving. and the reason gas was so low, when trump was in, it was because nobody was working. there were no cars on the highway. just remember, the cities burning, the riots, the shutdown , it was all during trump. biden is doing a great job. thank you, jesse. you are a great moderator. have a great day. host: let's go to matt, calling from falls church, virginia. good morning. caller: good morning. i would say for myself, i am

personally optimistic. i think part of that is i got very lucky with my life in that i had parents who gave me a college fund to afford to have college without debt. i managed to buy my house before 2020 when the rate started going up, so i have a very good interest rate on my house. i have the support on my house. i understand i have a lucky life compared to many. i am optimistic because i have a lot of benefits that help me. i think we as a society have to look for those who do not have the benefits and see how they are doing. i do worry about our younger generation being saddled with all of this educational debt. higher mortgage interest rates and they will not be able to buy homes.

higher interest rates from credit cards and other things because of the difficulty of older generations to use credit. i am optimistic, but i have a pessimism for the younger generations. i think we have to look at it as a society to see how we are doing, are they being put up for success? if it is our job to make the world a better place for future generations, how are we doing? i don't think we are doing that great. host: let's talk to steve from brunswick, georgia, good morning. caller: good morning. i and ultimate optimist. my wife is 16 years younger than i am, i am 82. we have been through this before. we will get through this.

the economy is doing great. donald trump was the worst thing that could have happened to this country. he ruined everything. he gave tax breaks to the rich, and we are paying for it now. he increased the national debt by $8.3 trillion. he created fake news. he has been the worst thing that could have happened to this country. i am not thrilled about president -- by our current president, he is doing the best he can under the circumstances. i am 82 years old, and i have not lost my marbles. maybe he is slowing down, but he is doing a real good job. i have lived virtually debt free, my house is paid for, i

drive old cars that i maintain. i am very happy with him. my life is good. i do not think this guy is not falling. -- the sky is not falling. it has not fallen. this is america, the number one economy in the world. host: let's go to roger, calling from north carolina. good morning. caller: the economy -- [indiscernible] host: all right, we are having trouble hearing roger. let's go to charleston, south carolina, christian, good morning. caller: hey, good morning. i just wanted to say i love c-span, and i feel like i have a positive outlook on the economy. i think the reserve is doing the right thing, keeping interest rates up after a long time with interest rates being too low.

i agree we will have a strong holiday season. i feel like we will get through this holiday season. host: let's go to israel, calling from washington, d.c., good morning. caller: good morning and happy holidays. i love c-span, but i just wanted to say that i am extremely optimistic right now. my husband and i are on our way to to go black friday shopping early this morning, but i just wanted to let everybody know that we have to understand what, you know, the basic principle of economics is, supply and demand. the previous caller who said because we were not driving on the street and because we had a massive shut down, nobody was spending money. of course, once we slowly opened back up, of course, prices are going to increase, but we are

seeing now that the economy is getting back, and even though the interest rates are higher right now, i predict that it will go down, and i am excited, so i hope everybody has a great holiday and thank you for taking my call. host: let's talk to jim from south carolina. good morning. caller: good morning. i am pessimistic about the economy because i really do not feel like the politicians want economy to do well. host: you still there, jim? caller: yes. the area i live in, i and about 45 minutes from myrtle beach, south carolina. every time i look, i see a few suv's, campers, motorhomes taking to the beach. these are like 70 miles per

gallon but nobody can afford gasoline. most of them, they have a new pickup behind it, nobody can afford gasoline because the biden administration has got everything -- and something just does not add up. people are living large. if biden is doing so bad, we cannot afford anything, i really think the politicians want them to be that way so they can reelect their dear leaders. this conversation is not about the economy. it is about biden, if people are being honest. host: we will take a couple more calls. i would like to bring you up-to-date on the news happening out of israel, the war between israel and hamas. i want to bring you the news of what is going on right now.

this comes from nbc news, the first polling since the israel-hamas were erected on october 7 has begun. paving the way for the release of hostages in exchange for palestinian prisoners in israeli jails, following weeks of excruciating negotiations brokered by the u.s., qatar, and egypt. the deal featured a four day truce, the release of 50 hostages from gaza, and 150 palestinians from israel. the negotiations revealed the vast salvages that remain in freeing all 240 captured. hamas officials maintain they have taken about 70 israeli soldiers and 50 women and children captive, according to a diplomat in the region with knowledge. officials from the militant group said there were as many 100 captives whose whereabouts

are unknown, but they are pursuing leads. it would not have been accepted by the prime minister netanyahu without enormous pressure from president joe biden. according to a senior israeli government official. while those hostages have not yet been released, the first hostages have not been released, the relief is expected to happen sometime this morning. we will keep our ion it for you. let's go back to our call lines about the economy and talk to carolyn, calling from south carolina. good morning. caller: good morning, c-span. i have felt optimistic about the economy. i would like to make quick points. number one, the guy that did the logistics for the trucking industry, he might want to look at competition because amazon is really strong, competing with trucking companies. number two, i think the economy

is doing well because trump is not in office. he said he would give russia-ukraine, and ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, so a lot of people are looking at the pandemic, but ukraine is the breadbasket of the world and has affected the economy. number three, the economy is still doing good because trump just congratulated the new president of argentina said he is going to do a putin-like move and try to take the balkans. we don't need anymore unstable things going on in the global economy, so people have got to wake up and look at the whole world instead of just how much a piece of candy costs at the supermarket. . host: tom from kentucky, good morning. caller: i am optimistic. i tell the people out there, in my opinion, trump wants to be a

victor. if he gets in, we won't have an economy. we will not have money, nothing. they will turn us over to north korea. bye. host: we would like to thank all of our callers who called in. next, open enrollment for health insurance through the affordable care act is underway. ryan plays of paragon health institute joins to talk --brian blase joins us to talk about how the deals work and if they are a good deal for consumers. stick with us. we will be right back to talk. >> avoid the crazy score -- and kickstart your holiday shopping c-span during our black friday sale at c-spanshop.org, save up to 30% on apparel, accessories, home to court and books. there is something for every c-span fan and every purchase helps support our nonprofit. check c-span's black friday sale

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♪ >> a healthy democracy does not just look like this. it looks like this. where americans can see democracy at work, where citizens are truly informed, a republic thrives. get it straight from the sources. unfiltered, unbiased, word for word. from the nation's capital to wherever you are, because the opinion that matters the most is your own. this is what democracy looks like. c-span, powered by cable. >> "washington journal" continues. host: we are back, joined this morning by brian blase, president of the paragon health institute. he is here this morning to discuss enrollment on the affordable care act as the 2024 sign-up period begins and the new research on the shortcomings of the. aca exchange good morning -- of

the aca exchange. good morning. guest: good morning. host: first of all, remind our viewers of what the paragon health institute is, what kind of work you do there, and how you all are funded. guest: sure. paragon is a health policy research center. we are now just over two years old, and we focus on evaluating how government health care programs are working, and developing health policies those government programs that empower patients and introduce more competition into the markets and ensure we have a regulatory climate where innovation can produce the product that improves american health and lower costs over time. we study a variety of government programs for medicare, medicaid, the affordable care act, to how the public health agency like

the food and drug demonstration of the center for disease. paragon is a nonprofit organization, funded by a variety of individuals, and foundations, and paragon received no corporate money. host: i know this is a question we could spend the whole show talking about, but tell us what you think are the key problems facing u.s. health care right now. guest: sure. it really boils down to one key problem. we are sending too much -- spending too much money on services that don't deliver us enough help. government health programs are gratuity to that with lots of inefficient subsidies and spending. really a lot of perverse incentives in the system that means americans are spending a lot on health care, but not

necessarily getting a lot of value from that spending, so we have a health sector that is really beneficial to big industry, big hospital systems, big insurance companies, but the individual patient and family is for the most part, not getting enough value from that spending. there are pockets of american health care that are exceptional, such as u.s. cancer care, cancer patients have much more lower mortality in the u.s. than patients in other countries, and we have a pharmaceutical industry that does produce a lot of innovation and patient health, but, for the most part, we do have a lot of inefficiency in the health care sector. host: in many states, the open enrollment for the affordable care act is now open. the affordable care act established health marketplaces

were individuals can purchase health insurance during the annual open enrollment period. for our viewers, i am sure many know this, but just in case, can you explain how those marketplaces work? are they doing what they were intended to do? guest: yeah, so the aca was passed in 2010. it is a big, complicated law. lots of new government regulations, spending programs and taxes. the two core pieces of the aca are the coverage provisions, so there is a medicaid expansion which offered states lots of federal money to expand their medicaid program, and that is a welfare program, so typically for low income, disadvantaged individuals in the country, and then there is what you mentioned, the health insurance exchanges, so they were heavily regulated marketplaces where people started to purchase coverage she did not get

coverage through their employer or through government program. open enrollment, so every year, starting november 1, for about a six week period, people can buy coverage in the marketplaces so that the key regulations are, if you apply for coverage, the insurance company has to offer you a plan and cannot charge an individual more if they are sick then if they are healthy of a certain age. that is the key regulation. what that regulation does is produces something called adverse selection, where the only people who would purchase the plans are those who expect to use significant health care during the year. the aca contained two of the provisions used, the individual mandate, a tax penalty on people if purchased the government required insurance and then

subsidies, and subsidies take a large portion of that premium and have the taxpayer pay it instead of the individual. congress repealed the individual mandate penalty, so as of 2019, that was no longer in effect, but you still have large subsidies in place, and those subsidies have been expanded by the congress and president biden. mostly what we have in the aca, if you have low income, you qualify for a plan where the individual pays little of the premium and most of the cost is worn by the taxpayer. if you don't qualify for a large subsidy, people generally are not buying the plans and don't consider them worth it. the average premium for a family of four on the exchange is $21,000. that plan is going to carry a $5,000 deductible, so the story of the aca is if you qualify for

the large subsidies, people are enrolling and purchasing plans but if you don't qualify for the subsidies, it is not a good deal and people are not purchasing the coverage. host: one of the things that aca was intended to resolve his uninsured americans when it came to medical insurance. are there still a large number of americans out there who do not have medical insurance? guest: so a report was released on this, just a few months ago, and there are 24 million people in the u.s. that do not have health insurance. that is down considerably from before the aca was passed. the vast majority of the coverage gains from the aca, more than 90% are from the medicaid expansion that i mentioned. the individual market is not that much larger than it was

prior to the aca taking effect, and there has been a decline in the number of people who have employer coverage, so the vast majority of the 20 million or more people who have health coverage because of the aca are enrolled in the medicaid expansion. going back to the 24 million uninsured, 5 million are not here lawfully, so that takes it down to 19 million. of the 19 million, 15 million have access to a subsidy to purchase in the exchange, are eligible for their state medicaid program, or have an offer of insurance from their employer and turn it down. so 50 million have access -- 15 million have access to a subsidized form of health insurance and turn it down. only about four americans lack

access to subsidize health plans. host: are we seeing more and more americans signing up for the aca every year? we have some statistics here from the kaiser family foundation, where it looks like the number of people in the aca marketplace who are enrolling seems to be going up every year. in 2014, 8 million. 20, 3, we saw 16.3 million. do we see that number continuing -- 2023, 16.3 million. do we see that number continue to go up or are we stabilizing around 16 to 17 million? guest: 2015 to 2020, we had about 10 million and rowley's over the course of the year in the exchanges. in 2021 -- 10 million enrollees over the course of the year in the exchange. in 2021, the number of people

eligible was expanded, so you see a few more people sign up for coverage in 2021. coverage gains have continued and expanded subsidies are in place through 2025. i am a critic of those expanded subsidies and think most of the benefit have gone two people who have already have coverage and replace private spending with public spending. these directly flow to the treasury of health insurance companies, and when those subsidies, if they expire after 2025, the congressional budget office projects you have several million fewer people enrolled in the exchanges. host: like me take a second to remind viewers they can take part in the conversation. we are talking about the affordable care act and enrollment. we will open up special lines

for this conversation. if you have affordable care act insurance, call (202)-748-8000. once again, for those of you who are under the aca right now, we want to hear from you at (202)-748-8000. if you have private insurance, if you have private insurance, we want to hear from you at (202)-748-8001. for private insurance, (202)-748-8001. if you are not insured at all i do not have any medical insurance, we want to hear about your experiences. for those not insured, (202)-748-8002. and if for some reason you do not fit in any of those categories, we have a number for everyone else, (202)-748-8003. let me run through those quickly. if you have aca insurance, (202)-748-8000. if you have private insurance, (202)-748-8001.

if you have no insurance, (202)-748-8002. and for everyone else, (202)-748-8003. keep in mind, you can text us at (202)-748-8003. we are always on social media at x at @cspanwj and on facebook at facebook.com/c-span. let's get back to talking about what is going on right now. what services are actually covered under the affordable care act? what is not covered? has anything changed for the coverage since 2010? guest: yeah, so the law contains something called the essential health benefits, 10 categories of benefits, which is what you expect health insurance to cover, hospitalization, emergency care, physician

services, prescription drugs. so it is what you would expect typical health insurance to cover. one of the issues is the number and quality of hospitals and doctors that accept the aca coverage, so most plans people have available to them in the exchanges do not cover the best hospitals and doctors in their region. they are what we call narrow network plans. they are hmos. that is an ongoing issue, the quality of the plans in the individual market, so pre-aca and obamacare, individual market plans ended to cover a much broader set of hospitals and doctors. there was greater variety of plan available to people. one of the concerns is the availability of plans that have

broader provider networks to cover the best hospitals and doctors in the region. for example, in texas, not a single exchange plan covers md anderson, and of the nation's premier hospitals for cancer care in the country. host: what are the questions that people seem to have? he brought this up in a report from paragon, you are seeing that the aca, you report that individual market policies have produced far less enrollment at a much higher cost than projected. i want to read a paragraph from the report that talks about this. "the aca individual market policies have produced far lower enrollment than expected. federal spending totaling 60 billion in 2021, resulted in a total increase of 1.6 americans covered under private insurance.

overall, employer coverage dropped by 1.3 million and rowley's and nongroup cover -- enrollees and nongroup coverage increased. the cost to taxpayers has been $36,798 for additional insurance and rowley -- enrollee. which is more than triple the original projections of $10,538 at $6,850 respectively are: it sounds -- respectively." it sounds like this is costing more and not getting the benefits we were promised. am i understanding that right? guest: you understand that perfectly. thank you for mentioning that report. it is available on our website, paragoninstitute.org. we had two excellent action areas do the analysis, and what they did is something that we

should do much more of an we evaluate how government is working. they looked at what was expected by the experts before the law's provisions took effect and compared the projections with reality, so in terms of enrollment being the size of the individual market, as well as what they call the efficiency, which is how much government spending is there per additional individual with private market coverage, and on enrollment, they found, and they use the year 2021, the most recent data available when they did their study, but the congressional budget office, which is the gold standard of projections of government progress, they expected the individual market would be 40 million people by 2021. it was only 20 million people, so it was half the expected size, and then they looked at

what was the taxpayer cost for new private market and rowley -- marketenrollee? they found it was more than three times what the congressional budget office expected when the law passed, so we have far less in roman and far higher cost -- far less enrollment and far higher cost per new enrollee, which suggests there is a problem with the program and there needs to be reformed. the main policy suggestion is, let's figure out how we can spend this money more wisely, give people more options over the type of coverage available to them. host: that me ask one more question before we get to caller s. are there specific medical costs making the aca more costly than anticipated? guest: that is a good question. this report did not get into that.

we certainly know that in the first few years at the aca took effect that insurers underpriced the premiums and that the enrollees that came in were on average much sicker than they expected, so the initial premiums were not sufficient to pay the medical claims, which is why you had a significant increase in the premiums from when the law took effect. i will make one other point about this, we have a bad set of incentives in place. the subsidy structure, the way that it works, it limits the amount of premium that household pays to certain amount, so regardless of the total premium, the household only pays a certain portion of that. the rest is borne by the taxpayer, so over time as premiums have increased, the taxpayer has borne the entire part of the premium increase. insurers know that is the dynamic, so they are pricing and

environment where they know that their consumer is relatively insensitive to the premium, so they have pricing power, which has led to sort of this inflationary spiral and because of some other provisions of the aca that kind of cap ensure profits at the percentage it is finding, it leads to a lot of whistle spending going on. host: let's let some of our viewers take part in this conversation. we will start with john, calling from dallas, texas, and has aca insurance. good morning. caller: good morning, hi. i have aca, and it is great for me because i am in the age of 55 and would not have insurance otherwise. i did not take the financial assistance, but it is kind of what brian says here in texas, i

am not really able to see a lot of the doctors that i want to. sometimes it is inconvenient. it is something, but in the other hand, and it is difficult because a lot of doctors will not take it. my question for brian would be, if i have to go to the emergency room with the aca, am i going to be covered or is it only certain hospitals? does the hospital going to say, we don't take that -- is the hospital going to say, we don't take that? guest: congratulations if you are a cowboys fan. i know they had a big win yesterday on thanksgiving. it is a great question. you should be covered if you go to an emergency room and you have a medical emergency. there is legislation that congress passed that would protect you and limit what your

share of that spending is and whatever the deductible and cautionary would be, so long as it is emergency service. host: brian, you are going to come on "washington journal" i congratulate a cowboys victory? guest: i am an eagles fan, so i don't like the cowboys and i enjoyed when the eagles beat them, and look forward to the eagles beating the cowboys again in a few weeks. host: we will forgive you this one time. guest: i had to cease -- i like to say something nice to the callers. and dallas did have a big win yesterday. host: if you had congratulated ole miss, i would have forgiven that one. let's talk to cynthia, calling from south carolina. cynthia also has aca insurance. good morning. caller: good morning.

thank you for taking my call. i have aca insurance, and i am on disability, and i found that the doctors do not want to take that insurance, also in between, they keep raising the prices. like i am on ozone thick . every time --ozempic, and every time i go by, they have a different price. certain medication i have been on a wild, and they do not want to accept it. they want to give it to me at an expensive price. i found not being able to afford it. so i tried to maybe upgrade the policy, but they did not let me do that either.

waiting for a response. host: go ahead, brian. guest: so, i cannot promise on your specific situation, unfortunately, i am sorry of the situation you are going through. i do think it is worth noting, the first two callers that we have received have both had the same concern and complaint with the aca coverage they have, which is that there is a limited number of providers that accept that coverage. i think it really speaks to the fact that for many sick people, people who have medical conditions, the aca allowed them , if they have low income, they don't have to pay that much out of for their premium, but they have an insurance plan that is not accepted by the better doctors and hospitals in their regions.

and it is really an ongoing problem that we need policymakers to, one, appreciate, and, two, think about how we can solve that problem. host: do you all have any specific policy recommendations that you would make the congress to make the aca work better? guest: yeah, i mean i think there are several. one, we think that people should have the right to spend their own money on the health coverage that works best for them. the aca sort of created this very regulated set of insurance plans that do not work best for a lot of people, so we think people should be able to spend their own money on coverage that works best for them. the biden administration has a proposed rule right now to restrict one type of plan that is very beneficial for lots of families and hopefully the biden administration will withdraw the proposal. we also think that government

should better target assistance to those who actually need the financing, so the creation, before the aca, there were things called state high risk. aware individuals who cannot get private health insurance would go and get subsidized coverage and that really does a better job of targeting the funding to people who really needed it. the third of think i mentioned, and there is a policy proposal that we have at paragon called the hsa option. instead of the government sending all of the subsidies to the health insurance companies, for the health insurance to really be in control of, give lower income enrollees the subsidy directly, so that they have to use it on health care, but then they are able to decide how to use that financing in a way that best meets their health care needs. host: let's go back to our phone

lines and talk to tim, calling from redding, california. tim has private insurance. good morning. caller: good morning. let me turn my tv down. good morning, gentlemen. first, marjorie taylor greene. second, it is interesting that we need to bring up the concept of under insurance. i do have private insurance, like most people in the country, but we all kind of have this uncertainty or confidence, and our insurance if it would in fact cover our needs, including emergency needs, like i think we heard a caller worried about that. it seems like our health care system is a can that we are kicking down the road. if you look at the common health

fund study, we spend the most on health care but have the worst outcomes compared to similar countries that have high-yielding economy. most of the costs or expenditures we pay for health care goes to administrative costs to maintain the systems we are discussing right now. there was a study that came out in 2020 from the lancet, a renowned medical journal by epidemiologist at yale that showed implementation of a single pair health care system, which this is a new concept, most developed countries in this world have a single-payer system , and it could in fact save the u.s. 450 billion a year and 60,000 lives a year because of people who don't have access to health care because of insurance reasons. why aren't we talking about this enough?

everybody knows that it is the practical thing to do. democrats, more than 80% cold for it, and a majority of republicans want a single-payer health care system, too. so what are we doing? why do we justify and foster the system that is clearly failing? thank you. i will take my answer offline. host: is there a plan in washington to tackle a new health care plan? guest: there is really not. so, i think there are a lot of problems with medicare for all proposals. one is the cost. the cost would be substantial, the amount of taxes that would need to be raised in order to fund medicare for all. a number came out from the center several years ago that estimated the cost for medicare for all would be between $30

trillion and $40 trillion. aside from the cost, have a couple of other issues. one, people generally like their private health insurance and the plans that they are on. this is a major political problem that president obama faced in 2013 when people started losing the health plans that they liked. the other issue you have is that the quality of health care could significantly decline, so we have single payer health care for end-stage renal disease in the u.s., medicare has covered end-stage renal disease for over 50 years, and the quality of kidney care in the u.s. is fairly -- it is bad. it is not where it should be. and medicare's role in financing end-stage renal disease, really

over 50 plus years, is a big reason for that. i do think the democrats really are in a place, and i think there is a lot of sympathy among several members of the democratic party to afford medicare for all, and you see several proposals, but they are in a difficult position where building on the aca, which there are also politicians interested in president biden building on the aca, it is built on an insurance company model, and their plan over the last few years has been the way to improve the aca is just to expand subsidies that go to expand subsidies that good health insurance companies, and i think the role of health insurance companies in sending tens of millions of additional dollars per year to health insurance companies, at some point, it is going to come into conflict with the supporters and the democratic party who do not want insurance companies to have

a role in health care anymore. i do think the caller started with making a point on under insurance. i think there is under insurance and there is also over insurance. we do not allow insurance to be appropriately priced. insurance has a proper role in our health care sector, and for paying for expensive emergency procedures, that is a rule for health insurance. it is really to protect us from the financial risk of low probability catastrophic events. but we also need to think about what we spend on health care that should not be processed through insurance. typical routine care for insurance ads administration, complexity, and bureaucracy and cost. and the insured should not be enrolled in those services. host: let's talk to doug from

las vegas. he also has aca insurance. good morning. caller: good morning. my comments are directed at a certain group of people who have taken care of themselves their whole lives and watched after themselves. the aca works out really good once you are getting to retirement age. you cannot retire like i did at 60, you join the aca. when they first set it up, they cannot tell you how much it would be a year because it depends how much you will make later, but when you put up with all the silliness and getting it going, once it is going, it works out great. because all you have to do is do not spend your own money, just play poor. i have got enough on he saved that i don't have to worry about working ever again, but i do not take it out of any of my accounts. then i don't have to pay my insurance, so i make $14,000 a

year on the government paying for my insurance. if you play the game right, the aca will work really good for you if you have taken care of your money along the way. had you done that, you could raise a whole family without your wife working. a lot of stuff in this country people tell you is a lie. you can raise a family on one income. i did, and i never made more than $100,000. you just live within your means, and the aca will bail you out huge and give you an extra $1200 a month. host: go ahead and respond. guest: so, one of the points he made is really a good point, and it is about their weight the subsidy structure works and how the main beneficiary structures are individuals who are sort of between 55 and 65, so health care expenses naturally increase

as people age, so you would expect premiums to be higher for older people and younger people. on average, expenses for pre-retirees are five times more than expenses for young adults. the aca, though, sets the premium the same, regardless of the contribution after the subsidy is the same regardless of age, so the aca really transfers a lot of money from younger adults to pre-retirees. that is why we have seen enrollment typically dominated by individuals over the age of 50. they are just not paying a lot of their own money for one of these heavily subsidized exchange plans. host: let's talk to pat from camden, new jersey.

packed is on medicare. good morning -- pat is on medicare. good morning. caller: good morning, america. a couple of questions, and i wanted to help the young lady in south carolina. i found the affordable care act as it was coming on board, and i was in my 50's, losing my job, and i needed health care. i had colitis, and i never had medication for five or so years. so, after i helped the lady, i wanted to go back to there were a lot of compromises that i understood were made for them to even get those. and the benefit hospitals and doctors, i will bring that forward because mom is now in the hospital, and i cannot believe i have to navigate to

get proper health care for her heart condition. congestive heart failure. anyway, in south carolina, go to the prescription drug manufacturer, and, perhaps, you can get help. unfortunately, your doctor's office should be helping, and they are not. they don't care. and if you are a person of color , you better pray because they don't care, and there is so much to connect. because i have humira. it is like $1000 a month, and i had to argue and fight. always got to fight. you always got to fight. and now i got a seven dollar co-pay because i qualify for some supplemental help. south carolina is not good if you need health care. host: go ahead and respond to her. guest: caller caller the, -- the caller, obviously, there are a

lot of frustrations when dealing with the complexities of the health care system. often times, you need an advocate to sort through the bureaucracy that you get from government programs and from the health care systems. it is a real problem, and if patients do not have someone advocating for them and trying to help coordinate the care, it often leads to a lot of adverse outcomes. one of the main problems we have with our health care system are medical errors, possible acquired infections that come from disorganized, disorganized care delivered to too many patients. host: what can consumers do right now to make their experience with the aca better? is there anything anyone can do? guest: well, there are lots of

advertisements. to watch television, you get lots of advertisements. i would say, you know, the experience has gotten better over time as it initially launched, it was very rough, the website did not work and there was frustration. i think most states rely on the federal exchange, just healthcare.gov, so that would be the place to start. there is probably about one third of states now that have their own state exchange, but really, -- and then there will be people out there, both with the governments and private insurance agents that are available to help insurers -- consumers pick the plan best for them. host: what should lawmakers do, if anything, right now, to fix all of this? guest: [laughter]

well, they should do a lot. to fix it. and there is a lot that we have on paragon's website of recommendations, and it is broader than the aca, but with respect to the aca, there are a couple of things. one, we want to help small employers offer health insurance, so if people get coverage through their employer, it is a better deal for the government because the cost is so much cheaper than if somebody is enrolled in the aca exchange or in medicaid. so making it easier for small businesses to join together to offer coverage through association health plans, i worked on a major role when i was in the trunk administration that allowed employers to offer country -- trunk administration that allowed employers to offer contributions that employers took, so instead of the employer

picking plans for everybody, they provided a contribution that the workers took and bought on the individual market, and their aca compliant plan would improve the market and expanded over time, and makers could codify those rules on association out health plans and reimbursement arrangements. they could take steps to improv the individual mark to expand alternatives -- markets expand alternatives to the aca, so there are alternatives called short-term limited duration plans that are more flexible and affordable. policymakers should allow consumers to benefit from those. and then, finally, the aca is spending over $200 billion a year subsidizing coverage through medicaid and these exchanges. what can they do for consumers in control of this financing and

direct financing to people who really need it and not just cutting big checks to health companies -- health care companies. host: we would like to thank brian blase for talking us through the affordable care act. thank you for your time this morning. guest: my pleasure. thank you. host: we would like to thank all of our guests, viewers and social media followers for another great addition of "washington journal." continue to stay safe, wash her hands, and everyone had a great friday. -- wash your hands, and everyone have a great friday. we will see again tomorrow morning. ♪