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politics. shington journal tradition, we are joined once again by james pindell, awesome glow political reporter contributor with nbc and msnbc. happy primary day. guest: happy primary day to lks who celebrate like me. host: a recent story of yours called this the incredible shrinking primary in new hampshire. what did you mean by that? guest: this primary is historic, has shocked and upset the apple cart of american politics. if you look at the 2024 primary calendar, you kinda need to circle january 23, because the stakes could not be higher. if you look at the first four or early primary states, iowa, new hampshire, nevada, south carolina, this is the one state where you could say donald trump could be vulnerable and maybe his coronation to the republican nomination may not go as smoothly as he thought. he was consistently pulling

around 42, 40 5% for much of the year. the democratic side, we don't talk about this enough, but this is really the first test for joe biden as president to see if democrats are enthusiastic to vote for him, if they have concerns about him. certainly we have seen in polling nationwide as well as here in new hampshire, concern about hisge, may concerned about his policies, particularly among those on the left. this is the first sort of ballot test for him. he is not on the ballot, there is a write and effort here. the stakes are high. at the same time, everything about this primary seems smaller. that is why i called it the incredibly shrinking new hampshire primary. the field of candidates is smaller. a number of events candidates are doing is smaller. the crowd sizes are smaller. i would say there are fewer debates but there are no debates, less enthusiasm on the ground here.

i took a picture last night of a pretty high-end restaurant that would normally be full on primary eve with reporters and political types. it was empty. this has not been the same hampshire primary that i've been use to. this is my seventh presidential primary season. there are structural reasons for that, specific reasons for the campaign, but that is the reason i wrote the column. host: you wrote that to pull off a victory, nikki haley today in the republican primary would need a mccain-like performance. what does that mean? guest: the only historical parallel to what we have seen in 2024 on the republican side anyway with a dominant front runner was george w. bush in 2000. at the time, texas governor, son of a president. he had just won the iowa caucuses pretty handily, was winning in every early primary state, dominant front runner nationwide.

then along came john mccain in new hampshire. polls here also showed him down to george w. bush, but john mccain pulled off a stunning 18-point win. one of those amazing new hampshire primaryries. he did it basically, if you look at two or three different metrics. one, deep support of these independent voters that we've been talking about all morning. he had a humongous cap over george bush on that. nikki haley meanwhile has a much smaller lead among independent voters. second, we don't talk about this enough. john mccain, independent voters in new hampshire. but he actually also won conservatives in that election. nikki haley, this is where she is getting smoked by 50 points among conservatives. that will be a problem for her going forward. lastly, the third metric which is harder to define, but john

mccain did 114 town halls and 69 days. nikki haley what i mean is she will pop into a bar or restaurant and will only hold one rally and will not even take questions. new hampshire love the idea of going for the underdog who is really fighting for the vote. you see that not just for president but all up and down the ballot in this swing state in elections. state or anything else. there's been a general impression that she has not been fighting for it enough. her closing rally last night was in salem, new hampshire, a deeply republican vote-rich town on the border of massachusetts. it lasted 34 minutes. this is not exactly the tradition of an underdog going to fight for every last vote. she is not doing mccain tradition that he did, not getting it in the numbers, and that is why it looks like she is set up for a bad night.

but new hampshire surprises us again and again. in 2008, it is embarrassing if you go to the c-span archives. it looks like barack obama with a double-digit lead was going to win the primary. we all remember that night when hillary clinton was the one to pull that off. host: the c-span archives are never embarrassing. lengthy in there for everyone. if you want to join with james pindell, he is with us until the end of our program, 10:00 eastern. voting already underway in the granite state. voting will and in most places around 7:00 or 8:00 p.m. depending on thedemocrats, (202. republicans, (202) 748-8001. independents, (202) 748-8002. all morning long, that line for granite state residents, (202) 748-8003. you were mentioning nikki haley,

her stops, campaign events. she has been joined by governor chris sununu at all of those events. how has that endorsement worked out for her, what was the expectation when the endorsement came? guest: number one we should mention this was a strategic endorsement by chris sununu. it is not that he was in love with nikki haley from the very beginning. they disagree on a lot of things quite frankly. but he was very exquisite about this. by the way, we should point this out. i don't think i've ever seen this in american is trying to ef to be the single most important endorsement in this presidential process of all states. jim clyburn in south carolina, we know an extreme important endorsement to joe biden and his path to the nomination. chris sununu is trying to be jim clyburn on steroids. he flirted with running for the u.s. senate years ago, became a national name, then he flirted with running for president even, became even more of a national

voice, keynote for the republican national convention last year. he is trying to elevate his voice and power and clout in the party. he is not even running for reelection. he said, look, he wanted to find and bolster the candidate he thought had the best chance to defeat donald trump. nikki haley was on the rise in late november, early december. he endorsed her after that december debate where she he wae anti-trump candidate. when his impact to the endorsement may mean politically on the ground is very questionable. we at the boston globe did a poll and ask the question in the fall. only about 30% of republican voters said they would even factor that in. by the way, his endorsement record in republican primaries, even in new hampshire, is really checkered.

i think his impact was to signal to national donors that she has something going on here. she raised a record $24 million in the last three months of the year. thathe opponents in iowa and new hampshire. already has a 4 million-dollar dollars added by in south carolina. i'm not sure she would have had that much money had chris sununu not given such an enthusiastic endorsement and an argument that she had something building here. host: we will start with lisa in new hampshire. lisa in new hampshire. independent. go ahead. caller: i just wanted to say, civilization would be great right now. that is what my kids say. that is why i'm going to vote today. we just need to get rid of the

-- causing all of this confusion and chaos. host: who will you be voting for? are you willing to say? caller: probably nikki haley. she has good principles, good team around her. people that don't have lives that are not in entertainment, not really funny at all. it is actually causing a lot of chaos between families, communities. she wants to go back to being peaceful again. host: lisa, an independent. one of those undeclared, i'm assuming. the role of the undeclared voters today, and turnout expectations on that front, james pindell? guest: such a great point from lisa. a point that nikki haley have been making in her argument, time for a new generation. 70% of america doesn't want joe

biden and donald trump in every match this year. this may be the contest that decides if it will happen automatically or not. to your point about undeclared or independent builders, as much as i talk about how this is a smaller primary, you have to square that with the estimate from the secretary of state and those in the campaign, they believe this could be a record turnout today during the primary fueled by independent voters. if that is the case, nikki haley may do better than the polls suggest. host: when we were in iowa for our coverage there, the weather was a factor in the turnout. any weather concerns today? what are you watching? i know that we all become minor weather reporters when it comes to primary day. guest: i was out in iowa, have been here all week. today was the first time i didn't have to wear my winter jacket to an interview.

the weather will not be a factor at all today. this is a typical late january day in new hampshire. host: clarence and st. joseph's, missouri is next. you are on with james pindell. caller: i just wanted to say, nikki haley is not really all that trustworthy. when she was sold farmland to china. china has a right on the land in the united states because they were allowed to buy land in their country. host: james pindell, a sentiment that translates to what you are seeing in new hampshire? guest: yes, to a degree. of donald trump's political argument. america's relationship with china has evolved, definitely in evolved since she was governor. she has taken a hard line.

there is so much we disagree in pile tex but one thing that is bipartisan is an argument of america in a competitive relationship with china. one reason why you see this argument from ron desantis he was a candidate against her. she has a tougher line on china now in recent years. i could see this moving forward, if this does move forward, a big talking point as the race goes to south carolina. host: what were your thoughts when ron desantis stepped out of the race over the weekend? headline from the washington times. "never back down" which was the headline of the campaign. desantis backed down. guest: it is a stunning downfall. $150 million. he was winning the new hampshire primary a year ago in april from the university of new hampshire.

when we talk about how nikki haley is getting crushed among conservatives, had this rain gone differently, ron desantis actually had an argument that he could at least go to two to or closer with -- teo to toe or closer with donald trump. everyone else who didn't like donald trump. there was an argument therefore ron desantis. clearly, his campaign wasn't able to pull it off. i will give him credit for at least understanding the race correctly, in theory. like we talked about before, in 2000 eight, hillary clinton was a dominant front runner in all the primary states, nationwide. barack obama decided to go all in on iowa. it burst her inevitability in the first contest and now the issue where the base wanted to fight her, the war in iraq. ron desantis said i'm going to go to iowa. he will do with the iowa way,

does all 99 counties, appeal to evangelical christians, a caucus that makes up two thirds of the electorate. this time smaller, 55%. he would be the leader of the culture wars, which is what republicans were talking about in the national conversation. but when the first criminal charge came out against donald trump, you could see that he became the culture war, and that is when the trajectory of this race changed. ron desantis was unable to come back in any meaningful way. host: tommy in greenfield, independent -- indiana. republican. caller: just a couple of quick comments and then a question for your guest. i think right now with this country needs is someone like donald trump the united states but also for the world standing because if donald

trump was in office, ping pong in china, putin in russia, rth korea, they wouldn't be pulling the shenanigans they are pulling now. there would not have been a d rone circumvent the united states from china, because these guys know what donald trump would do if they pulled all of this stuff they are pulling now. host: so what is your question, tommy? caller:stion i have for your guest is, never in my lifetime have i ever seen a political partymanipulate and am to have a political opponent removed from the balance --

ballots to try and defeat their political opponent. the question i have is why does the mainstream media have such a love affair with the democratic party, that they are so willing to just acquiesce to whatever they want and are so willing to t out the information that they put out? host: tommy in indiana. i think referring to the effort to remove donald trump from the ballot using the 14th amendment. caller: i grew up down the road from you in -- guest: i grew up down the road from you in greenfield, so i'm familiar. number one, we never had a president like donald trump, never had a president with criminal charges. we never had a president who could be remotely accused by a prosecutor of being involved in an insurrection. a court in colorado found that he was involved in insurrection. that is how they made the first

step to remove. the supreme court will take a look at this. you talked about this in the previous segment. i think it's a good thing for america that theis. what no one wants is for donald trump to win the election and then the supreme court weighs in and says he is not actually legit candidate for president. that would be an awful situation. host: donald in jeanette, pennsylvania. regret. -- democrat. caller: good morning. my comment is more concerning residents and new hampshire and really nothing to do with 2024. i would like to acknowledge for history's sake the other franklin, and that would be franklin pierce, who hailed from new hampshire,n! to this day is our only president from the granite state. host: thanks for that.

i forgot franklin pierce was from new hampshire. . james pindell, any thoughts on franklin pierce? guest: one of our least popular presidents in american history. you go down the list of historians in terms of his role in perpetuating slavery before the civil war. people would say he didn't have much of a choice. wasn't a great husband, father either. but his legacy does hold on. there is a university named after him, his house was taken over after a while and made into a museum. there is a two volume series on franklin pierce done by a noted historian, very good actually. franklin pierce's legacy and story lives on. what is interesting, around that time of franklin pierce, there was an argument to be had that new hampshire held the first national convention largely to help elevate franklin pierce.

it is a fascinating, weird period in america in the 1850's, but his legacy does still hold on. one fun fact, we have to does take its role -- there was no primary in the 1850's -- but it takes its role very seriously. and part of that, unlike other early primary states, by the way, no one has run for president in the modern era from new hampshire except for one person. bob smith in 2000. never made it to the primary ballot. because he ran, he was kicked out of office. new hampshire -- chris sununu may have flirted with the idea of running for president. people think it is serious, it's a neutral playing ground. there is no favorites on here. nobody actually harbors national ambitions like that. host: not to pile on franklin pierce, but according to the presidential historian survey -- we do this after a president

leaves office. last time it was done in 2021. just want to point out where franklin pierce ranked in that survey of historians, presidential scholars. them to rank all 44 men serving in the office of the presidency. if you go down those rankings, you have to go all the way to third from last to find franklin pierce, came in at 42nd and the most recent survey. by the way, those presidential historians and scholars, the 41st ranked president, donald j. trump, is where they put the former president. all available at c-span.org if you want to check out that survey. the latest one in 2021. this is tony in houston, texas. independent. good morning. caller: good morning, i am calling on the independent line although i will be voting republican for donald trump.

i'm a 67-year-old african-american black man, dissented of black slaves. i was deeply offended by the insensitivity of nikki haley when she said, what do you want me to say about slavery? it was indicative of the fact that she has no concept of what american culture is. who do you think built the capital, the white house that she is attempting to occupy? black slaves. they built it with every brick, mort, the blood, sweat, and sinew of their bodies. she would never go to a jewi sh audience and say what you want me to say about the holocaust? never would go to an lgbt organization and say what do you want me to say about homosexuality? but for black people, descendant of slaves and the people that built the country, what do you want me to say?

it is government telling citizens how to live their lives and all of that. if it was up to her, i would still be a slave. probably i would not still be alive, hung a long time ago. but nikki haley, the of indian immigrants, first-generation, knows nothing about the culture. i voted for jimmy carter at 19 years old, voted for democratic candidates ever since. i stopped voting for democrats in 2016. i will vote republican for the rest of my life. thank you. host: guest: the question up north was a defining moment for the nikki haley campaign. i mean that for a couple reasons. it put her on the defensive ever since. she now basically takes no questions at all at her townhall meetings, she is playing it very carefully. she limits her media exposure and the questions there because she doesn't want to mess up

again. it is not just the defensive. it could have been a great moment for her. a calling card for nikki haley right now is that she is the electable republican left. a wall street journal poll showing that she can beat president biden by double digits. it wouldn't even be close. meanwhile, the contest with trump and biden, trump is winning in the last few polls. a much closer contest. remember the nikki haley narrative. she was the governor that took down the confederate flag in south carolina. appealing to her electability argument is hoping that she will talk about at a national publican convention for the general election, should you ever be the nominee -- should she ever be the nominee. it was a big moment for her campaign. host: fairfield, connecticut. carol, independent. good morning.

■,carol, are you with us? we will go to billy in amherst, ohio. republican. good morning. caller: hello. thank you for taking my call. so surprised i got on. i wanted to say, listening to nikki haley with her own words, not from reading, she admitted that she quit her job as the afo years to move herself up, not down. i take a job and i believe i will do it, i will perform my four years. it didn't make sense to me that she left her job to make more money. she admitted, she didn't have a lot of money, but now she is he moved up. i found that very disappointing. i am a republican.

i do vote republican because of the values i have. and i will be voting for trump in the next election. host: james pindell. guest: what is so fascinating this morning, also reflecting what is happening on the ground. we are talking about nikki haley, nikki haley, nikki haley. we had three questions in a row about her. if you turn on a tv in new hampshire, it is either a pro-nikki haley add or an anti-nikki haley add. . it is such a weird thing because politics lately has been donald trump, donald trump. america knows a lot about donald trump and joe biden. she is a new person that we are still learning about, caller is talking about. it is an interesting twist. if she gets blown out in the new hampshire primary, maybe the republican nomination is over and we are again talking about donald trump, donald trump, donald trump. at least right now we are asking

about nikki haley, and that's interesting. host: 10 minutes left in our program. before that, we wanted to get your thoughts, four years from now, the new hampshire primary down the road in the wake of what is happening on the democratic side this time around, in what could be a blowout today if the polls are correct. what are your expectations for the future of the new hampshire primary? guest: it is very unsettled, no question about it. we have ever seen a new hampshire primary like this. what i mean by that, particularly on the democratic side, joe biden made a very cynical play by removing new hampshire, a state that he finished fifth in a few years ago, to reward state that elevated him to the presidency. there are a lot of concerns about new hampshire's role, now over 100 years long in the process. yes, new hampshire is disproportionately really white. yes, it is really

proportionately really rural when america is becoming more urban. yes, it is definitely more educated than the average state. and it is wealthier. in the top five always for the top-five wealthy state in the country. and it is older. but in a time of political polarization, when congress has to struggle to do anything at all, i have heard it heartbreakingly this week how families have been torn apart by families -- by politics. they are not talking to each other. this romantic notion that you even saw last night, in dixville notch, of democracy, transparency. people have all of these conspiracy theories, but in dixville notch, they open up the wooden box to make sure there are no more ballots. they count them one by one. if democracy is really being tested in the 2024 election,

this is what democracy is at its purest, where there are townhall meetings, where people can size up, have a joke that is funny. other state may be able to pull that off. a bunch of big state simply cannot. they are media-driven contests. but the idea and the romance of the new hampshire primary and what it can deliver for america, is something that i don't think we should leave lightly. i am biased, have been here pretty much my entire career covering this primary, but for all the criticisms and concerns, moving forward, there will be a lot lost for the sake of democracy if new hampshire is somehow put further aside in this primary. i don't know where we go from here to be honest with you. host: down to the tar heel state. grace in north carolina. democrat. good morning.

go ahead, you are on with james pindell. caller: i wante■"d to just say something about the gentleman that spoke about haley being anti-black my guess is what he was trying to say. i just wonder, if haleyoesn't know anything about the country's culture, what does donald trump know? he only sees what is in front of him. i really think that these people that are so gung ho for him have been brainwashed. you know, when you have children, you have to keep repeating things to a child so they will november. -- remember it. that is what he has done. every rally, he repeats the same thing. i feel so bad. i am a democrat but i have voted

republican in my time. i am 87 years old. host: who is the last republican you voted for? caller: i voted for nixon of all people. [laughter] anyway, i just montana country to come back. -- want our country to come back. e the trump came into office, came down the escalator to announce his run, our country has been in pure hell. i wanted to come back. i guess as you get older you don't like change. i don't like change. thank you very much for taking my call. young man, you are doing a good job. host: before you go, what did you like about nixon? caller: i really don't know why i voted for him. i think i was young and stupid.

anyway, i thought he was going to be a good president. i think he had the stuff to do it with, but somewhere along the line, his brain crossed. host: that is grace, democrat in north carolina. james pindell, jump in. guest: she reflects where a lot of americans were in 2020, where they were just exhausted by a donald trump presidency. that is not a partisan statement. republicans were exhausted by being attacked constantly. now joe biden is in the office. can he somehow reelection bring back that sense of -- you were exhausted by those four years. again, families were torn apart, she mentioned. that will be the bigger challenge when he is in the white house, the one with the record. i don't know how thisill exactly play out in 2024.

it could go several different ways. we are looking at third parties, can they bring something back in terms of normalcy. i don't know. host: five minutes left. james pindell, where are you watching result tonight, how do you watch results? if there is an upset by nikki haley, how early do you expect we will know, where should we look? guest: great questions. the polls close either at 7:00 or 8:00. 90% of the polls in the state close at 7:00. it closes in the largest city where we are at now in manchester at 7:00. they are really quick at turning around results. among the first result you'll get is in manchester, which is kind of a swing city, in terms of politics here in new hampshire. i think we will have a pretty good idea within 45 minutes whether or not nikki haley has something going on. of course, all the major

organizations called the iowa caucuses within 31 minutes. i'm not sure it will be that fast, but it will be pretty it is going to be -- what will be tougher, about half of the state lives in two counties in the boston suburbs. one of the counties is here in manchester, one is closer to the ocean. those counties are generally open later until about 8:00. so we will get a richer picture later in the evening, but this will be pretty fast. we will pretty much know the winter, i think, by 11:00, if not much earlier. host: will you be watching from the boston globe, where will you be tonight? guest: i'll be on tv a lot tonight, on msnbc. we have a bunch of reporters with the globe. largest paper by circulation in the state. i don't member how many reporters we have but i'll be wahing like most people on tv,

watching the results come in from the associated press, secretary of state. host: one or two more calls. marlon has been weeding in lancaster, pennsylvania. republican. things were waiting. -- thanks for waiting. caller: the concept of a fair wage. compared to the local economies and stuff. host: not sure where you are going with that but i believe you were talking economy, inflation. james pindell, those issues and the primary? guest: such a great point. in the economy is still an important issue, in our polling anyway, but immigration has really emerged as the single biggest sort of issue in this republican primary.

we are far away from the southern border. new hampshire does border canada. we have had some issues there. but immigration is an example of how this primary, which is usually a local process, town meetings, neighbors figuring things out, there is no one issue like ethanol that dominates new hampshire here. although pretty tax adverse here. one example how this primary has become nationalized. a national conversation could be dominated more so by immigration then it is by the economy. you see that reflected even in the speeches of the candidates who eventually got around to talking about inflation or the economy, which has turned around in the last couple of years, maybe that is why it is being deemphasized. but immigration is the number one issue. host: one more call from south carolina. don is a democrat. good morning. caller: there are so many things

that i could talk about right now, but right now, i feel like the whole problem we are having now, the white people are scared because they are thinking that the democrats aremany liberals,y mixed race people in this group over here on the democratic side, so they call us too liberal. but the main reason i called, the reason why these republicans are jumping ship, democrats are jumping ship from the party is because of the same reason, when the republican turned into a party when abraham lincoln. you know what i'm saying. the democrats turn the democrat when abraham lincoln freed the slaves. they left the republican party.

host: that is done in california. last minute or so, james pindell, and a graphics in the election, racial politics? final thoughts here. guest: no question race has been a defining factor throughout american history and american politics. it has defined parties. one reason why we are in a political realignment. the number one thing to decide if you are republican or democrat has been education. increasingly, the picture on race is getting more complicated also. donald trump is increasing his party among hispanics and black americans. not enough to make a humongous difference, but in the margins, he has been. host: james pindell, political reporter with the boston globe, political trick contributor -- contributor with

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