c-span.org. >> tune into c-span's live coverage of the 2024 national political convention starting with republicans four day event in milwaukee on july 15. democrats as they convene in chicago on august 19. stay connected to c-span for an uninterrupted and unfiltered glimpse of democracy at work. watch the republican and democric convention live this summer on c-span, c-span now, and online at c-span.org. c-spanpolitics powered by cable. ■> and editor-in-chief of sabato's crystal ball.

welc thank you so much. host: there's an article in politico with dams -- dems in full-blown free got over biden. a running list of reasons biden could lose. nk that? -- what do you think that? guest: if you want a lot of clicks that's exactly the kind of headline and article you want to publish. most of these media look.izations want i have been at this long time. people aren't going to believe it but since 1960. i know i am too young looking. one thing i have■i learned is tt democrats panic easily. they panic several times every election campaign, whether they are winning or abusing. sometimes it's justified and other times it isn't. in this case it is too early to panic.

that does not stop them. i'm not saying republicans never panic. there is something about the nature of the democratic party that causes them to panic. i know the stakes are very high. they are looking at donald trump and sang, not again -- and sang, oh no, not again. it's true because they are saying it. i hear it all the time. you can't repeat the off the record and deep background conversations you have with people. i do hear it constantly. it is obvious what. they believe -- the democrats believe there is such a difference between the biden administration and the trump administration in terms of competence in the with a governance so on that it should not even be close. they see all these polls. some have trump aheade them tie. some have barely biden ahead. how can this be? the answer is, because that's

american politics. anything can happen and they must know that after 2016. host: what do you think of president biden biden's chances of reelection? what is in your crystal ball? guest: in my crystal ball it is very cloudy, because it is still may. her's a good statistic for people. we are still months out from the actual election. some voting starts at the end of september and continues through october. it accelerates the second and third week of october and the first week of november. we are a long way out. what about all these public opinion polls? ■rwell, on average they are havg a margin of error right now of at least 4% to 5%. we have a very competitive race on our hands. we are very competitive country politically. to me that■y means the polls d't

tell you a lot. if you go into the subtext of the polls you can learn about particular groups and the electorate. it may or may not be accurate because of the margin of error is so large for some of the smaller groups. you can analyze on that basis if you want. anybody who draws firm conclusions and he makes campaign strategy based on polls and may in may should not be -- in may should not be in a presidential campaign. host: what are the major issues that will be driving the campaign 2024, whether it is now or if you can predict once voting starts? what do you think that is? we know the old phrase, it is the economy, stupid. do you think that will be the number one issue? guest: there are a lot of issues on the front burner.

there are a lot of front burners. it's a big stove. you have to look at what each side is stressing. if it going to look at biden's weaknesses, you start with age which does seem to affect people's views of him to a certain degree. although trump is only three and half years young.i say this oths 70's. i'm not guilty of ageism. saying as the years go by your i have seen that myself. anybody would admit that if they are being honest and not trying forage would be at the top. then you would have the economy, mainly inflation. most of the other economic measures are pretty positive except for housing. housing costs are too high. those are the three top ones. you can go on all youi'm sure ss

will about others issues -- other issues. for trump, it is pretty clearly the way he conducted himself as president the first time, which definitely includes the insurrection of january 6. i know a lot of people react negatively to that term. if that wasn't insurrection, i don't know what was other than the civil war. ■t■

beyond the actual trial you would have -- there are so many controversies connected to donald trump. they are going to be discussed in enormous detail day by day, hour-by-hour between now and the end of the campaign. look. there are things we can't even already we've got the results of the first trial once it occurs, which i assume will be within a few days or a week or s then we have the debate, the earliest debate in american history for two presidential candidates. the major party presidential candidates on june 27 carried by cnn and i seem c-span. maybe not live. you'll have to tell us if it is live or on tape. that is just june. then you have the republican convention in mid july.

four days of lots of things happening. then you have the democratic -e- the republican what is in milwaukee. the democratic convention used were seen at july. not quite e en of august. that will be in chicago. that ought to be a red blinking light for at least those of us oldin 1968. anybody who thinks that will go completely smoothly obviously did not live through 1968. there are similarities. more differences but you will look at that. i'maditional kickoff point. the next time you hear a ponded or a pundit panel -- pundit over a pundit panel or an anchor say this will determine the election and here are the top two issues that this will make all the difference in the world -- i forgot to mention abortion. talking to not mention reproductive rights as a weakness for donald trump and

the republicans? i should list. anybody thinks they know the whole score at the end of may is dead wrong. i would caution people not to be so definitive. i heard so many people do it and write it -- attention new york times. host: let's go back to the hush money trial. we are expecting to get a verdict possibly this week. can the trial itself -- has the trial itself changed pls and opinions? do you think a verdict would? what kind of information were, that has not already come out that my sway voters? guest: you are going to have competing reactions. democrats -- assume it is a guilty verdict or a hung jury, democrats will be outraged and both announc trump and

say it is just a taste of what would have happened had we had election day. particularly the january may the classified documents, too . they will use that information all the way to november. i think i guilty verdict would cut a point or two off■b trump. if he found innocent, which i think is the least likely but you can't eliminate it, that would pump trump up. a i can imagine the trump campan and supporter victory given the trials being i will predict one thing. i may be dead wrong. i hope people re-show thiif maybe in a month, month and a half, two months, i will bet you most of the effect from the

trial, whether it pushes trump up ors. the reason i say that is because that has been the norm for donald trump. especially in our highly rt era where democrats stay with democrats and republicans stay with republicans. relatively handful independents, not the 44% gallup tells us, because being an independent is a social plus. i will not be pushed into a corner by any of those parties. the truth is they must always vote for one party or the other. they are hidden partisans. they are really only 4% to 6% of the people that are movable. there's a largerntage in terms of voting. are they going to vote or not? if they vote, will they vote for one of the two major party candidates independents for thiy candidate? these are the questions.

nobody can have the answer to this. i hear this one -- rfk wl heard this one or that one. they don't have a clue who rfk will hurt if he hurts either one of them. host: there's another trial set to begin in hunter biden's federal firearms charges. that is set to begin monday. what do you think about that? any campaign? repuan they are really focused on hunter biden. they are going to be outraged at whatever it is that's uncovered in the trial. if he's guilty, they will have material for the campaign. if he's innocent, they will talk the biden administration. the justice department did this. there is no evidence of that but nonetheless that is what will be said about it. it will star the republican base. it will probably increase a little bit republican outrage.

maybe a lot. that will be a plus for trump and therefore a minus for biden. is that going to dominate the headlines? but last i checked donald trump and joe biden are the two major candidates running for president. hunter biden is not in it. the children of donald trump are not in it. they are bit compared to the two major party nominees. one other point. you have been around longer have to see this. every president, every president i was born under truman. everyone has had a relative or two or 10 who were problematic. they got into legal trouble or whatever it may be. i can't remember one of those relatives who actually cost the incumbent president much.

maybe temporarily a few points in the polls. in election, no. that is way down the list compared to the ones i discussed at the beginning of this broadcast. host: if you would like to call ank, director of center for politics at the university of virginia, you can do so. demos, (202) 7-8000. republicans, (202) 748-8001. independents, (202) 748-8002. you mentioned, larry, the first debate happening in about a month. the earliest ever. does that mean that is the kickoff to the real campaign season when voters are now■o tu/ in and paying attention? what is it going to mean? guest: i think it is the beginning and that's a good point. we don't really start at labor day.o in the old days, decades and

decades ago. that honestly was the kickoff. people would save lots of things for labor day and the few months or weeks tt followed labor day. that has long since faded. john f. kennedy announced the presidency on january 2, 1960. the year he ran. think of that. now they announce years before they arethey are running even if they have not formally announced. we have a permanent campaign on both sides. stephen the third parties an independents get into that mode as well. i would say yes. unprecedented to have a debate between the presidential candidates in june. they normally start in september. the kennednixon debates were in september and october. they had more on national tv. they were interesting.

i encourage people to go to youtube and other places. some of foreign to them because the issues have changed. it's interesting to see the deoh, how we have gone downhill. my god have we gone downhill. kennedy and nixon were actually. they occasionally complemented one another. they call each other mr. kennedy, mr. nixon, mr. vice president, senator. it is depressing in a way to watch them. we have teriorated so much. that will be a nightmare. the two people i feel most sympathy for another two candates on the stage. it is the two moderators. how on the world they will run that and control it, i don't know. they are able to turn off the mic now but i bet the candidates

can be heard by the other candidate's mic. it will be tougher than they think. host: let's talk to the callers. patrick up first on the life of democrats from allen, texas. caller: patrick. people call me chud. i'm 25 now. i was a college student around 2019. i wanted about how the trump trial willfocus of everyt. i think i may play a large part as a regular bystander. also, my friend said that this trial is definitely going to impact a lot of situations in regards to the trump trial and what he will do in the coming future. he thinks it will be an absolute

gem of a debate in 2024 because he feels politics are a lot more focused on entertainment nowadays. also, i wanted to say mentions,- host: he talked about the debates. what kind of an impacted they have in 2020? do we think they will have an impact or is it just entertainment? guest: we have long since entered the age of infotainment. that will not change. trump comes out of that world. i don't think he would have been president without "the apprentice." almost everybody agrees with that. infotainment is part of the game. i think we need to remove or of these debates are early. the first is the earliest ever.

totally president, june 27. the second is mid-september. we have had plenty of debates in september but normally we have the second debate in october. facets, debate is the second debate -- the september debate is the second debate. will that last? that is the question. will they last? people focus on things and say this thing that happened today is the most important thing that has ever happened or ever will happen. you go a week later and people don't even remember what it was that was the most important thing that has ever happened. that is the nature of our world. it depends on what occurs during the debate, candidates makes a terrible gaffe or in biden'sase shows his age horton trump's case -- or in trump's case shows his temperament. both campaig hope that is not

true for their candidate but it's true for the other candidate. we will see. i do think your point about this kicking off the election much earlier than usual is completely true. then you are following up with the republican national convention just a couple of weeks later. you are following up with the democratic convention. we always pretend the campaign against on labor day. you have a second debate a couple weeks later. this is going to bex that will keep people focused on the election. whether they can remember all those big events and calculate their vote on that basis is a very different question. host: wayne in harrisburg, pennsylvania, republican. caller: i would like to ask the guest on a debate issue we heard

donald trump going on eight years. what could they do to get the poorhispanic, any race, pr if ty difference all they have to do is go up on the minimum wage to $21. whoever does that will win the election.n.they are not going t. host: larry? guest: i'm not sure what they will do an minimum-wage. it is much more likely the democrats would wage it then republicans. it 11 eighths jobs. democrats say poor people and lower middle class need the additional increment, especially because of inflation. i leave that debate to people who are experts inhe field.

i would listen carefully to the debates. people say it is just rhetoric. but they say doesn't matter. at the very least they are held they said in the debates. if they promise a and deliver z directly in contradiction to whatever they promised, they suffer for it to a certain degree. favorability ratings may fall -- their favorability ratings may fall. it does not matter as much as what they do. always remember what the campaign manager for richard nixon said after nixon won the closehe said don't listen to whe say. watch what we do. that is true for all presidents. that doesn't mean their words don't count and the words don't matter. host: independent in whiting, vermont. caller: goodi have a different e

elections. i am working sir and not about who was middle-class or how much money people are making, which is very important. i'm worried about the world organization. it is meeting soon art has a meeting now. the world economic forum. globalist movements is open borders are part of it. nobody talks about that. americans are fighting amongst ourselves over pennies, this, that. we are in effect joe biden is the biggest globalist by far. he's working with all these countries underneath the noses of the american citizen. the person speaking, the man there, can we talk about the world health organization?

it's bigger than people know. guest: i certainly agree that international affairs and international organizations are connected to the u.n. and some are separate from it but are important. there are things we should pay attentiond learn more about. i have to tell you i'm not an expert in any of that. i am sure all my invitations to their important international meetings have been lost in the mail. we h problem with mail delivery. i have aperson. let me add that before i stop getting mail entirely. i'm sure that's what's happening to my invitation to the big events. if i ever get invited and i'm able to actually:■u attend, mayi will have a better answer for you. you are certainlyought to pay ae things and many, many other things. if i had one prayer to be answered it would be that americans pay more attention to

politics and read reliable publications and watch reliable tv shows. conservative, moderate, does not matter. as long as you're trying to learn and absorb the information. without thoseot make mistake afr mistake after mistake. host: in talking about foreign policy, the israel-gaza war is something that is starting to hunt biden's popularity among a lot of i'm on a college campus. we call it the ground. they don't do that at virginia tech. . she's from virginia tech. i'm sorry. i don't know what your reaction is. i don't have you on screen but i know you agree with me. we have had demonstrations just like almost every college campus has.

virginia tech has them as well. most universities in this state and across the nation andvaryin. some are violent. we never want that. it is contradictory to the nature of the university. young people are interested in issues. they are paying attention. it is■0 true for both sides. jewish americans are paying close attention. they want to know or candidates stand on israel and the u.s. backing israel. gpcare of americans want to know what the u.s. is really doing for gaza, both to stop the killing of civilians, ince aid m what is really a near famine. they both have important concerns. they will consider them. i also have to tell you i have seen a lot of evidence that while people are concerned about it, whene a choice of a candidate it is actually

notissues that they mention and actually are basing their vote■+ on. i'm not saying it's not important. it's criticallya cease fire pler everybody's sake. you have to take this and context -- in context. all these issues have importance americans. host: beverly in wyoming on the line for democrats. caller: good morning. i thought the debate with trump and biden was terrible at the last debate. because trump never lets anybody speak over him. i thought it was very rude, terrible. then to have touting that he evn

divvied. they were doing a victory lap in every thing else before the votes were in. i don't understand these people that can t that. then he brings all his flags with him. that is embarrassing. it is demeaning. ackerman is taking all the credit for what joe biden's got on the agenda. i don't understand the republicans. they want to take the credit but they don't do the work. that is what i've got to say. host: any comment? guest: i will comment on the first part. the first part is important. one of the major■n■ç changes tht i'm delighted about in the debate process is that the

moderators cannot turn off the microphone of the candidate who has either met or exceeded his time limit for each question. if you don't have control of the debate, it becomes more negative nastier, more chaotic. at the past debates and you can see that is true. i thinkbeen in effect decades a. i'm thrilled it is taking place. come also thrilled there is no live audience. i love the energy that live audiences bring. in the old days they would be careful about keeping quiet. they obeyed the moderators. they paid attention to the rules. they kept quiet■.the time they r jeering was often subtracted from the candidate. they did thathnow they could ca. they scream and cheer and chant

can make it difficult to watch a debate and have any coherence to the debate. rk and maybe it won't work. we have two debates where be contested o. the first one is the more important and will set the precedent. i hope on june 27 that somehow those two cnn moderators are able to insist that the rule be obeyed and that by turning off the mic you can't really hear the other candidate interfering with the candidate who is speaking. fingers crossed, toes crossed. host: you have in your website anic with the title, "the down bill the consequences of trump's vp options." tell us who you are thinking is in the lead for that. what do you mean by the down ballot consequences of that pic? guest: certainly. let me complement and single out

kyle condit and miles coleman, cristobal steph -- in my crystal ball staff. they know so much that it's writing. -- frightening. many have gone on to careers in politics over the decades. down ballot means the people runnin for senate and house and governor and state legislature and sometimes even city council and mayor. there is some affect that the candidate for president can have on those other races. when there is a hometown effect first say a candidate for vice president who is from that state, it can add a point or two. it doesn't always have to but it can. and when you pick strategically a vice presidential candidate it can affect more than your own state.

it. it can affect the region. it used be the south would respond favorably to the selection of a southern candidate foce president. this is going to be, certainly for the house, a squeaker election. . close. both sides agreed that the side that was the majority will be lucky to get a majority of 10 or 15. that is not insignificant. there are 435 house members who vote on the floor. in the senate it can add a point or two or subtract a point or two. we have quite a number of close and it races. unfortunately for the democrats, the st are democratic incumbents for states that are competitive and swing states. ballot contest. the choice trump is really going to matter. it probably matters less than

usual because trump absorbs the heat and light of any campaign. i don't know that the vice presidential candidate will make as much of a splash as usual. the vice president can raise money. the vice president can be in place as on. in terms of swinging boats divine of you as much affect. we will wait and see. the list changes every couple of days. it's a strategy. you want to keep people interested in the choice. the trump people want to have a counter headline from whatever's happening in the trial. beyond that, trump also changes hiscvyou can have different chos three times a day . we will see who we end up with. he was satisfied wit pence during the administration until

january 6 of 2021. he probably, not definitely but probably will want to pick a vice who was going to obey him if he tells them to hold that the eioyou decide whe, i personally think it is bad. we ought to in the constitution and the law. that is an important criteria for trump. as far as biden is concerned, the decision was made long ago continue with vice president harris. i don't see that changing. host: rachel in fornecaller: it the national post in 2020. before the election had joe biden up 52 and then trump 44. then i looked at the national polls.

it was pretty much right on the same poll. then the election, biden wonn t4 million votes. the post was pretty much right on. then got 306 and trump got 232. trump said the election was stolen because georgia cheated or whatever. george only give 16 electoral votes. which would only put 248 for trump. that still would not have been 270. fired the host on fox news because he called the election for biden. point steve bannon on a talk radio show said when he was asked about the poll numbers, trump is behind. he said trump will call

literally. -- call it early. that is how he was going tow in it -- to win it. i cathe poll numbers were rightn election day. i don't understand that they can be saying it's a fraud election. host: larry? guest'm not going to get into discussion of poles. you are right. ng. some of the individual polls were really off. also they had biden winning by wide margins in georgia and arizona and wisconsin. one poll, i think it was the washington post, a few days before the election that had biden up by 17 percentage points. he won by a fraction of 1%. how can you be that far off just a few days before the election?

there were plenty of other polls that were wrong. not votes. voteant than polls. everyone needs to remember that. everyone needs to discount these stories about this poll and that paul and the other pole. -- poll and the other poll. they just want you to click on a story and talk about it. the news media panels talk about it endlesslyer. let me balance that by saying the 2020 election absolutely positively was not stolen, period. i'm sure i just upset a lot of people and i'm sorry you're upset. overwhelming and has been all along. it b judgment of i think over 60 judgenced by dona,

that the ection was safe and secure. i don't have any times we have to say it. that is not the way to conduct democracy. you did not support democracy when you only support election results that elect your candidate. the other party's candidate are rigged or have been changed by voter fraud. it is ridiculous. t to let that notion go. i would sure like to see more leadership from the republican side. they have been parroting the big lie that donald trump told them in the beginni t to stop the peaceful transfer of power.they don't want to irritae donald trump. they know better. privately. of course they know the election and secure. it is like pulling teeth to even get them to say that biden is a

legitimate president. our standards have fallen so low that depressing for somebody like me who's been around so long andbers when our system was much better and much stronger. host: jill is a democrat in columbus, ohio. caller:i( thank you. i'm not talking about polls again. i am one of theemocrats that are freaking out about the most recent polling. what gets me is when they ask specific questions like on the economy where they say the unemployment rate is the highest it's been in 50 years, when in fact it is the lowest in 50 years. people think we are in a recession with a gdp on average is actually higher than it was under the trump administration. another thing is biden -- 20% of respondents said he was responsible for roe v. wade

being overturned. infrastructure. both trump and biden get equal credit for the infrastructur bill. when in fact it was biden that did it. trump talked about it but biden actually acted on it. assed. how are people so misinformed? i'm freaking out here. guest: well, you are right about all the individual items. i have seen that repeatedly about ot too. if i can get a brief commercial in my center for politics at the university of virginia was founded 25 years ago to help civic educatn,from kindergarteny through the end college. thro fonline, information they , givi mock elections to get

students interested. we have a crisis of civic education in this country. i mentioned this earlier. if we the people, voters, if we don't start paying attention more carefully to what the truth is as opposed to falsehoods, what the facts are as opposed to some of the phony statistics that are cited, how democracy is going down the drain regardless of who wins. i'm with you on that. host: larry sabato, founder and editor in chief of sabato's crystal ball and center for politics darker at the university of virginia. you can find his work at here on c-span, c-span now, a■/d online at c-span.org. we will get straight to your calls starting with adam in maryland, independent. caller: