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>> "washington journal" continues. host: a focus now on 2024's senate and gubernatorial contests. always glad to have jessica taylor of the cook political report. just a bit has happened since the last time we had you want in august. every race is a potential majority-maker in the senate this year. this week you wrote about senator ted cruz's race against colin allred, a race that is becoming more competitive with less than five weeks to go. guest: this is good news for democrats, because overall the map is very hard for democrats.

they have a 51-40 nine majority, but it functionally starts at 50-50, because they are going to lose that west virginia she -- c. they cannot afford to lose any incumbent and they have to have vice president kamala harris win the presidency. montana is one we moved a couple of weeks ago. jon tester is the most vulnerable incumbent. he shifted that race to lean republican. that means if democrats won a viable path to the majority they have to find another target. increasingly texas is becoming the target. you have ted cruz, of course he won by less than three put -- points in 2018. presidential election should be harder in texas but there is a couple of unique things happening. ted cruz is polarizing and he has emphasized his work as a legislator. he has toned down the bombastic personality but he is running against colin allred, who is a more centrist congressmen, flipped a seat in 2018 from red

to blue in the midterm elections. then he was drawn into a safe c. he could have stayed in suburban dallas for as long as he wanted, but democrats convincing him to run for senate. he has been able to fund raise. the latest number in texas, he has already spent almost $50 million between him and and all right's campaign versus cruise. his heavy advantage on air has enabled already to raise his name identification, to get his message out there, and there are two things that i think cruise is you -- is vulnerable on. abortion is a bigger issue than it was in 2018. texas has one of the most restrictive laws in the country. and then cancun. i was watching undecided trump voters, and they immediately brought up cancun, which in 2021 after the state was hit hard with a winter storm, power outages, the power grid failed,

ted cruz went with his family on a vacation to mexico. there was this iconic image of him coming back, rolling a suitcase with a mask. the ad talks about, ted cruz abandon us when we needed him. i think it further inflames why people have very strong feelings about ted cruz. but republicans are now putting more money in the race, painting already as tied to harrison biden, particularly on immigration. we are seeing tightening poll numbers and increased spending. host: that is what i wanted to focus on, the poll numbers. is it because texas is the best bad option, or is there polling here showing that already has a path? guest: i have seen polling between two and three points. host: with ted cruz ahead? guest: ted cruz is leading, and republicans have a slightly larger, but in public polling i think also those last two to three points in texas are herculean. it is the best bad option.

it is still very difficult, but the fact that already is raising his own money and can get those lower candidate rates when it comes to advertising, i kind of think of it in the other bucket is florida, of course. senator rick scott, also up for reelection. also has had issues with his approval ratings and favorability. his democratic opponent has not been able to fund raise at the level that already has. the democratic senatorial sent -- senatorial campaign committee said last week they are putting money in both races. so far we have seen that show up in hybrid ads, but i think when you look at where the money is and the fact that ted cruz cannot write himself a check versus rick scott in florida who is a marked -- a multimillionaire can. host: for visual learners may be the best place to go is cook political. you will see where all of these races fall in terms of jessica taylor and her colleagues these

races in terms of what will flip and what will not. these are all of the seats the democrats have to defend this cycle. we going to talk about west virginia. that one seemingly off the board. jon tester leans republican in montana. then a pair of tossup seats right now. it is michigan's open seat and sharad brown in ohio. guest: ohio is the next most vulnerable. if we look back to the decrease in ticket-splitting we have seen over the last two presidential cycles in 2016 every single senate race went the same way the presidential race that. in 2020 only student -- susan collins managed to maintain reelection. i think the math is much tougher for jon tester. he is also running against a stronger opponent. but in ohio that is a state that trump won twice by eight points.

the margin is smaller for sharad brown to perform. he is sort of the last democrat standing in the buckeye state. he has a populist image. yes been able to appeal to this disaffected white working-class voters democrats struggle with. he needs an extraordinary number of tickets letters this election cycle as well. his opponent is a former luxury car dealer. he is a colombian immigrant. but brown has been able to heavily outspend in the race. now we are seeing a lot of outside money coming in. and so polling has brown with a very slight lead, within the margin of error. but he has led pretty consistently. i think republicans see where marino has struggled to consolidate those trump voters behind him. if he does that that becomes a much harder path for sharad brown. we are at the point in the cycle where voters start to put on their partisan jerseys. if they are undecided they start coming home to that party. host: to give folks a sense of

what they are seeing in ohio, here is two political ads. we will play them back to back. the first is the national rifle association, one of these outside groups coming in to spend in ohio. an ad targeting sharad brown oncoming control. we will follow that with an add on one of his key signature legislative victories. let me show both reviewers. >> crime isn't just happening on tv. when seconds count the police are minutes away, because soft on crime politicians like sharad brown turned their back on law enforcement. >> and refused to protect our rights to self-defense. but even putting anti-gun judges on the bench. >> senator brown has failed us. >> bernie moreno will defend our rights. >> both like your life depends on it. >> because it might. >> six long strikes, seven sure.

110 sets of ohio hands that make it. >> the federal government has been spending millions on american flags made in china. sharad brown put an end to that. >> sharad brown wrote the american flag act. >> all flags must be made in america. >> by americans. >> i'm sharad brown. it is just common sense. the american flag should support american workers. that is why i approve this message. host: might as well have been a commercial break for viewers in ohio. what do you take from those ads and what the two sides are focusing on? guest: the nra are tying brown to where democrats are weakest come on crime, on immigration, sort of tying him to national democrats, reminding them, you may have liked this guy in the past, but still a democrat. he's going to come after your guns. versus brown is saying, where i have worked across the aisle, here is where i have gotten things done. that sort of, by americans, that

populism he has been able to tap into successful in ohio is where he is hoping -- because he needs a lot of trump-brown voters to win. 8:40 five eastern, taking your calls about the senate battlefield. let me give you the phone numbers. (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 free democrats. independents, it is (202) 748-8002. let's not skip over the governors races. right now it is 27 states with a republican governor, 20 three states with a democratic governor. where do you think that will fall come january? guest: we could end up with maybe one more republican seat that they could win, or it could -- the democrats could also pick up a seat. but actually it would stay the same, because -- sorry, let me say that again. democrats could pick up a seat.

because really the only competitive governor race in this point -- at this point is virginia. -- new hampshire. new hampshire alexa layer governors for two-year terms. this is really the only competitive race we have left on the board. kelly ayotte, former republican senator, is running there against the democratic former mayor, joyce craig. we have seen polls close there. i think what she is most vulnerable on is abortion. new hampshire has very -- has a lot of protections for abortion rights. she has emphasized in her ads she would not change those. she is hitting craig on her tenure in manchester with rising crime and homelessness. this is going to be a close race. democrats, this is the best chance to pick up a seat. i think the other two seats we

rate as even somewhat on the board what i think are really not there yet, in north carolina is the other one we have seen change. republicans had a shot a while ago. this one is moving off the board. they are defending the open seat there with governor roy cooper, term limited. we saw this move to a lean democrat race to now likely democrat because you have the attorney general there, the democrat versus the republican lieutenant governor mark robinson, who even before a damaging cnn story came out a couple of weeks ago about posts he allegedly made on a pornography website message board, he was being assailed by stein on abortion, on disparaging comments he made about women, about lgbtq individuals, and these were just playing ad nauseam in the state. so his numbers drop. now republicans have essentially abandon him. we shifted this race to likely democrat.

bob ferguson and republican and former congressman dave reichert. ferguson has the advantage there, so i think those two are safe bets at this point to stay in democratic hands. democrats have the best opportunity there in new hampshire to move that to 24 democrats -- 2024 democrats. >> if you are looking for a visual on how gubernatorial, house, and senate, and also the presidential battlegrounds are shaping up, live their ratings, maps there. jessica taylor with us this morning to talk about specifically senate and gubernatorial races. this is ronald in illinois. you are up first. good morning. >> good morning. i want to make a statement that is going on. i believe, and i think it is inevitable that the trump, maga, and gop, during the election there will be a petition through certain states or through the

senate and the congress to secede from the united states. secession is almost an inevitable -- host: ronald, do you think it has gotten that bad? caller: yes, definitely. host: we are back in civil war territory? we are back in 1860 territory now? caller: yes we are. one of the reasons was states rights on slavery. now we have the states rights on abortion and other things. and it is just, the states that are willing and waiting to secede or put in the recommendation to secede, it is about all of the slave states, mainly southern states. host: ronald, got your point. jessica taylor, on the polarization this cycle, with it being so polarized, how much of a persuadable middle is there in

these couple of key senate and gubernatorial races in these states? guest: it is a very small percentage. again, montana i think is the hardest to go back. ohio needs republicans to consolidate. the next tier of races we are seeing titan up along with the battlegrounds are in michigan, a race that we rate as tossup, then in wisconsin, a race that we rate lean democrat. we released polling showing this race much closer. a marquette poll had it within seven points with tammy baldwin leading her republican challenger there. then in pennsylvania, another, perhaps the most important of the presidential battlegrounds, another very important senate auto ground with bob casey being challenged by republican david mccormick. we have seen the senate leadership fund, mitch mcconnell-back super pac, put an

additional $67.5 million into these races. 28 million in pennsylvania. 22 point $5 million in michigan. seeing that these are tightening up. we do seat ticket-splitting happening and a wider delta is in the sun belt states, in arizona and nevada. those are becoming harder for democrats. specifically in arizona you have a more polarizing republican nominee in former gubernatorial candidate kari lake. in nevada sam brown has been vastly out-spend by jacky rosen. i think we are seeing sort of republicans coming home when it comes down to those independent voters. we are seeing some shifts toward republicans. our swing state projects survey that came out yesterday, which we do in conjunction with a democratic pollster and republican pollster, had a

17-point swing in michigan toward the republican candidate there among independents, where mike rogers, former congressman there who is running an open seat against democratic congressman -- congresswoman. host: is cook political producing their own polling? is that new this cycle? guest: that is new this cycle. we are doing polling in swing states. we have partners. they are conducting the polling force. our subscribers can go there and see the crosstabs and see our analysis, our editor-in-chief, and publisher amy walter has written the presidential landscape, and you can see the key shift in the presidential race. host: always interested in how you rate these races and what the magic formula is. in doing your own polling are you more inclined to trust that polling that you have had a hand in versus the other polls that in the past, you know, you would look at every poll out there and do ratings? how has that impacted you?

guest: i think it is the more data we have the better. look at these races comprehensively and we do not look at simply quantitatively but look at the races qualitatively. we are looking at the polling data. we are looking at spending numbers that tell us where parties are prioritizing. but we are talking with sources. we are seeing private polling data that is not out there. we are talking with people in states about what the ground games and things look like. we are in the thick of it with getting out daily. i feel like i am being in a dated with polling at this point, but that gives us more metrics to look at. host: campaigns also send you polling? i imagine in graded by a tossup is something that is trumpeted by campaign who is trying to knock off an incumbent or, say, ted cruz's campaign. did you get any response this week, moving them to lean republican? >> we always talk with the campaigns. we talk with the campaign committees. no, they will -- we will have

background conversations that we will -- that will go into our analysis. host: in north carolina, this is irene. independent. good morning. >> hello. host: hello. you're on with jessica taylor. caller: hi. good to talk to you. host: good to talk to you. if you turned on your tv it is a little easier. what is your question or comment? caller: i'm just upset with the ugliness of all of the campaigns that are going on, and i'm sick and tired of it, but i would like to see the politicians show their concern for the american people by diverting their money to help the eastern seaboard. especially the mountain area of north carolina, where so many people are still missing. put their money where it is

needed. show us what kind of person you are. host: jessica taylor, on natural disasters and tragedies happening right around election day, what that means for how a campaign -- a candidate campaigns are how you try to reach them? guest: western north carolina has been incredibly hard-hit. i'm from eastern tennessee originally. my hometown was flooded very badly damaged. these are very rural areas that already had a lack of infrastructure, so rebuilding is going to be key. i think we don't fully know the impact yet. those are camino, overall western north carolina is a very republican area, but there is pockets of it certainly around asheville that are very democratic. i think camino, we have to focus on rebuilding, getting people saved, finding people, making sure they have food, water, shelter, rebuilding the infrastructure. could it make polling in north

carolina harder? i think it certainly could. but i think there is going to be conversations about setting up mobile both centers or getting people absentee ballots in certain ways. people that need ideas have lost their id or identification. those are all things like states like -- that states like north carolina, georgia very hardhead. it is not just swing states. even if they are not in the presidential makes these are real people. again, the pictures and my family thankfully is ok, but i know people who have lost their homes and it is devastating. host: this is david in larchmont, new york. you are next. caller: good morning. ms. taylor, i want to know about what you said about rick scott, or another candidate who is wealthy. and can write a check to their own campaign. and i can't make a contribution above a certain amount to a campaign. so, i'm wondering how that works, in terms of self-funding, and whether that really fits

within a legal framework? guest: it does. they can donate to their campaign. sometimes campaigns will do a loan and they have the ability to pay themselves back later. but republicans really emphasize getting a lot of wealthy candidates into these races this cycle. again, rick scott, he is a multimillionaire. he was a health care ceo before he was elected governor. he has been able to put his own money in the races. we also have self-funding candidates in pennsylvania. every company in wisconsin. a banker and venture capitalist has also been able to put his money in the race in montana. candidates get lower fundraising rates. at this point where rates have skyrocketed that is very key, because in some states 25 times the super pac rate would be higher than the candidate rate. host: who decides that a candidate gets a cheaper rate than other folks? guest: those are regulations.

when it comes to federal campaigns those would get the cheaper rate. again, the rates are variable based on, i think, supply and demand, certainly, and if a state is more saturated, like, florida rates are high because we have so many dozens in media markets. florida is not a presidential battleground anymore. so there are more and rates available. i think in places like montana, even though there is no presidential race, the senate race is taking up so much that there is not a lot. but if you are in pennsylvania, if you are in wisconsin you are competing with presidential stuff. host: are you still with us? caller: yes i am. host: you are in a state that does not have a competitive presidential, opener, senate race. pretty blue state there. have you donated to candidates this cycle? caller: yes i have. host: would you mind saying you

have donated to? caller: first the biden campaign and then the harris campaign. i have donated to the senatorial campaign in florida because abortion is also on the ballot there, so that might give her an opportunity against rick scott. and to jon tester in montana, just because i like him. host: is this an unusual of donations -- number of donations for you this cycle? or is it about average? caller: that is about average. i buttonhole my donations based on my reading of the cook political report. host: and also another reason why the campaigns pay attention to your work. guest: i think we are cognizant of, we take our sponsor ability seriously and put out our nonpartisan analysis in that regard. caller: in alabama, deborah, democrat. thanks for writing. -- for waiting. caller: i'm interested in the

senate race in montana and how it relates to the abortion amendment that is on the ballot in montana. i have not seen any polling regarding that particular issue. however, if it goes like most of those abortion amendments have gone, it would seem as though the pro-choice opposition would win, and therefore i'm curious as to how that relates to the senate race? because if you are going to vote for the pro-choice position and then turn around and vote for a pro-life senate candidate, that, to me, does not work or is jon tester not making that connection? i don't know. guest: tester is absolute in making that connection. you all had a couple of days ago, a debate between tester and abortion was some of the hottest flashpoints. a lot of ads from tester from senate majority pack, the schumer-aligned pack, have

focused on abortion. she he -- sheehy is pro-life but said he would respect the decision in montana. certainly we saw after dobbs, abortion amendments, everywhere they have been on the ballot, they have passed. have not seen it in a presidential cycle. turnout is going to be high, but if they are on the ballot that does give voters the choice to vote for that, but also poor republican candidate. host: a different kind of ticket splitting? guest: exactly. we are in new territory, so i don't know how to predict that in that regard. i will say, montana has a very libertarian bent in that regard. i certainly would not be surprised if this passes, but i still think tester is in a very uphill race because of the partisan lien of the state there. host: back to the buckeye state.

dennis, republican. good morning. you are on with jessica taylor. caller: i'm interested in two senate races in ohio and montana. let's see who she thinks who would be the favorite in those races. host: we talked about them a little bit, but if you want to review? guest: in montana tim sheehy is the favorite there. pretty consistently she has been leading tester. in ohio brown has been leading, but it has all been very close. i think that marino is seen by republicans as a weaker candidate. and i look at these two races i think one of the key differences has been in talking with republicans that she he -- s heehy has been running positive with his bio. tester has been in the states along and montana is a very parochial state. when i was doing my reporting

one thing a source pointed out to me was that when tester last got elected over half of voters from montana were from montana. now that is about one third. she he has said -- -- sheehy has said, i moved to montana. tester is trying to hit him as one of these yell fee -- wealthy people moving to the state, yellowstone-ification was a flashpoint in that bay. bernie moreno was not on the area during the summer. super pac's were hitting brown, but democrats have hit him on his business record. when i was watching a focus group a couple of weeks ago of trumped voters undecided in the senate race they could recite the democratic ads hitting him for shredding documents, for firing single mothers. he hasn't done a lot to counter that other than saying, i am the trump-backed candidate. they could still be enough,

because as republican voters come home to matt is very hard there. but that has been a key difference in montana as she he has given them a reason to vote for them versus marino has tied himself to being the trump candidate. he is also getting outside money from crypto super pac. we are seeing this play in several other races. democratic and republican groups , marino has been a block chain investor as well, so we are