>> "washington journal"

continues. host: welcome back to washington we continue our discussion about the swing state of nevada with fred lokken. welcome. guest: thank you. host: nevada has the fewest electoral college votes of all the swing states.

what makes it so important to the candidates? guest: as we know, we live in peculiar times for the national elections. the electoral college votes have been relatively close and we start the cycle with 43 or 44 states that have already made up their mind regardless of what the campaigns and the party candidates do, they are going to vote their party. so those states who follow in the background state category, it is important because we ultimately provide the votes needed to get there. for the other states with the bigger numbers it is understandable but but when it is tight, six electoral votes can get you over the 270. for a state like nevada, a very

small state in terms of political influence, now much more influential than it should be. host: as far as party registration in nevada, i had to hear that democrats make up 30%, nonpartisan are 34%. what does that say about a possible independent voter or noncommitted voters? guest: nevada is not the only one that has this predominantly now. we have seen a growth in the independent voter. in the independent category have dedicated parties and it is confusing because we use different nomenclature that other states don't use. that number has grown rapidly over the last 10 to 15 years.

in the state of nevada, much of that has been refugee moderate republicans branded as rhinos in driven are the state party. they have been told they are not welcome at the party has moved strongly to the right. there are some disgruntled democrats that perhaps find some of the agenda too far to the left. the moderating voice in this group of voters in states like nevada, the phenomenon is going on in other states and that is the issue not being discussed in this election is that it will not be decided by democrats or republicans. it will be decided by nonpartisan's and independence in the state. they are shy to do the poll results and very much holding their cards close to the chest and that is going to be the real surprise on election day is to what extent they turn out and

how they voted, have they gone to the left or right. it is difficult in nevada for many of the nonpartisans to cast a vote for a republican like donald trump. after all, they have been driven are the party by conservatives and a number of them probably left because of the donald trump and so many election cycles. i think that will be a decisive issue for us in nevada. we watch that very closely. beyond that, you have to look at the distribution. in nevada, 80% resides in clark county las vegas. that has a 100,000 vote edge democrats over republicans. democrats are already in a good position in the southern nevada to nudge the total and the only other county that seems to matter is reno in the north.

the other county that can vote democrat and it is more swing or purple by far than clark county but these two companies are 95% of the state population. the other 15% are only 5%. it is an close election. 15 counties will read as a general rule. so the democratic strength resides in the two counties and that is where the election is going to be decided. host: what have you seen for the ground game for the two campaigns? have they been focused on getting the vote out? have you seen a lot of doorknocking? guest: it is a tale of two cities. the democratic party has always been organized on the ground game. it goes back to harry reid who served as senator for the state for a couple decades. we always referred to it as the

reid machine. you discussed with the unions, the whole idea was to get support for the unions and other strong unions in clark county and get them out doorknocking in over a number of elections, that machine really started to work well. when we see that is the dominance of the state legislature and that is where it has been by far the most successful but it supports the federal offices as well. that has in recent years moved to northern nevada. we have that working on the ground here and in this election, we have seen the democrats knocking on doors a lot and have come through in waves. frankly, we have not seen the republican party able to do the same thing for a variety of reasons. the republican party is not as well funded. they don't seem to have the

organized structure in place. the current governor is a republican and he has been looking to get that in place. we know that it takes years to put that in place but we think it is a very decisive factor in getting the vote and message across and has been critical this year because of how short a turnaround time we had between the decision of joe biden and harris having to get her campaign going. the machine is on the ground for them and we have seen a lot of harris material in the neighborhoods as a result. host: if you would like to join the conversation, if you're a trump supporter, call us on (202) 748-8001, if you support harris-walz, (202) 748-8000, undecided (202) 748-8002.

nevada residents since we are focused (202) 748-8003 since we are focused on it, call us on (202) 748-8003. how effective do you think it has been? guest: when we started the conversation, nevada was only six electoral votes could we should not be see many visits by the candidates and surrogates but we have because of the battleground status. the voters have gotten used to that. we have looked forward to seeing that. as soon as six to eight weeks ago, both reporters and voters were thinking, we are out of the loop. all of the sudden it has swept the state in the north and south and there is a tendency to go primarily to clark county but we

are seeing most everybody once or twice and it does add a flavor and excitement level and engagement level when they do this. the rallies are well attended for both democrats and republicans. we have seen excitement as a result. i can see why the candidates do it but it is so difficult in a nation so complex with so many people but with the swing states you can focus on those in contention and we are seeing steady waves and it doesn't make a difference in activating and engaging the voters. host: let's start to stephen in pennsylvania, a trump supporter. caller: good morning. being a republican, i feel compulsive to vote for trump,

although i don't agree with either candidate. as far as i am concerned, the united states deserves better than these two candidates. the reason i am looking to vote for trump is mainly because of israel. i am very concerned that over the course of this campaign we have heard very, very little and that bothers me. if they are not saying anything and voicing their opinions, that means a deal has been made between the harris-biden administration to give them what they want once they are elected and that worries me. many people are anti-israel now because of what is going on over there. israel is the only ally in that area. israel is the only country that will fight for us and put down their lives for us to keep us safe on the side of the ocean. that is the main reason i am voting for trump.

other than that, there is not much to choose from either one. host: professor lokken? guest: we always teach in the classroom is that it is domestic policy that motivates the american voter. foreign policy is the exception because we feel the impact of domestic issues and often the foreign policy issues don't seem to directly impact us. i understand the caller's point of view, but the whole situation is a complex situation. it has to be recognized it is a strong ally and i agree with that assessment. it is kind of like raising a child, you can always love them as a child but you don't always like their behavior. the ultra coalition governing

israel has been a difficult partner to deal with. that is true of all the countries that are allies of israel. we work closely with the egyptians and jordanians and saudi arabia, but there is a tremendous foreign policy presence that joe biden has been able to put into that region to keep us from tipping over and becoming a regional war. all voters should be concerned about where the middle east is going to end. it is the longest anticipated work in the middle east and does not seem to end. it does not look like it will be much of a voting issue on november 5. host: we have a collar in las vegas, nevada, rebecca. caller: i would like the professor to talk about what

happened on december 14, 2020 here in las vegas in the state of nevada where michael mcdonald in the rnc in nevada signed fake electoral votes in an attempt to disenfranchise thousands of democrat voters here in nevada. and also you had jessica on and when someone asked her a question about how the journal made the decision on who to endorse, i would like the professor to talk about who owns the review journal here in las vegas. i will take my answer off of the line. guest: i appreciate rebecca's call. the election in the process of voting is probably one of the best in the country. we have been a leader in

electronic voting. we have a structure of over -- of only 17 company so it is easy to coordinate with the secretary of state cost austria's office. procedures have been developed over the years and we do occasionally have someone who tries to vote illegally but they get caught and tried and convicted. we had a case in 2015 and another case from 2020. there is no integrity issue in nevada but unfortunately the republican state party has chosen that path and certainly the perception from the attorney general's office and secretary of state's office was that this was an attempt to disenfranchise voters in an legitimate voting process. there is no state law that could necessarily apply so they were reluctant to bring charges initially.

then they did finally try to bring charges and wound that being dismissed because we don't have a law they can use it effectively against it. we have doubled efforts in the state of nevada to make sure the process is transparent and fair and impartial. it is felt this may happen again in nevada and has happened in other states. it is unfortunate because there are certainly efforts to suppress votes in the united states. it has taken a toll on our registrar's and secretary of state's office. we have had death threats and all kinds of things that should not be happening in an american democracy in 2024. we need to focus on campaigns and respect the decision of the voters is they exercise it. they have been looking to expand the ease of voting in the state.

we expanded to early voting 10 days before doing that over the weekend and saturdays and sundays in grocery stores and libraries. we ushered in during the pandemic mail and ballots and have made that permanent. we are hoping that will improve voter turnout because nevada is one of the states that has a very low voter turnout percentagewise relative to the eligible. all of these things, including same-day voter registration, will hopefully be wide enough to improve the number of host: she asked about the las vegas review and their ownership and their endorsement. guest: 12 years ago, something like that -- in las vegas, it is a very conservative family.

the elder statesman of the adelson family. they say they separate the editorial board from any kind of political influence, but the owner. it is a competitor, the las vegas sun. there is the nevada independent. nevadans have other options for the news. they know where these papers are generally in terms of their ideology. host: kathleen and indianola, mississippi, a harris supporter. go ahead. caller: what i want to talk about today is mississippi. it is one of the reddest, reddest, reddest states. you know what i am talking about. everything donald john trump touches is dead or dying.

we are in a one bedroom apartment. donald trump raised everything and left it in a coma. biden, obama got us out. people need to wake up and learn history. if trump gets back in, we will not make it. everybody talking about "i need more money." what about my life? i've got snap. i've got medicaid, but most people don't. medicaid is expensive. what do we have left here? host: professor, any comments on mississippi? no that is not your focus. -- i know that is not your

focus. guest: it is representative. we have seven battleground states, but there are 43 other states. republicans in this -- in mississippi and democrats in states like new york and the northeast -- we have seen efforts to gerrymander the states so there is perpetual control. mississippi has been one of the states. in the southern states, 10 years ago, they passed laws that required photo i.d.. for so many, they were maybe 50, 60 miles from the closest place they could get an official government i.d. it was disenfranchising people who had been able to vote their entire lives. and these are unfortunate developments during times of hyper partisanship. it is very difficult sometimes once you create these situations to be able to undo them. it will take decades to be able to work out political shifts,

given the way lines have been drawn to make them guaranteed to be republican in this case, but in some other states, guaranteed to be democrat. i can understand voters get very frustrated by it. host: i want to play a harris ad that has been playing in nevada for you, professor, and then get your comments on it. v.p. harris: this election is about two very different visions for our nation. one is focused on the future and the other is focused on the past. when the middle class is strong, america is strong. the cost of living will be a defining goal of my presidency. i will lower the cost of insulin and prescription drugs for everyone, and i will work to pass the first ever federal ban on price gouging on food, close to 100 million americans will get a tax cut, you will end america's housing shortage by building 3 million new homes and residences that are affordable

for the middle class. together, we will build an economy where everyone can compete and have a real chance. now is the time to chart a new way forward. i'm kamala harris, and i approve this message. host: professor, that ada showed workers. it had a spanish translation of what vice president harris was saying on the screen. what do you make of that as far as the issues that are animating latino voters? guest: it is doing very well. i think the issues -- the economy is strong in nevada, but it is stronger in northern nevada than it is in southern nevada. northern nevada has been the beneficiary of a factory being relocated.

we are in the heart of the lithium loop, as we refer to it. we see the move to alternative energy. we are manufacturing battery-powered semis and cars, and we are operating on geothermal power. it is a very different reality in northern nevada than in southern nevada. southern nevada has been slower to respond. the convention business is not come back. the tourism and gaming parts of the economy of las vegas are there. i would say it still makes up about 85% of the state economy. so it is very important to know that their unemployment rate is a little higher than it is in northern nevada. people are very aware they're not making the money to deal with increased prices. it may be harder in southern nevada to get a job. housing prices in nevada, both north and south, or out pricing much of the market, as they are elsewhere in the country. every one of these problems were

here last year. they were here probably 10 or 15 or 20 years ago. the price increases, not so much. but there is also an understanding that much of that seems to be more arbitrary and capricious. we don't have supply problems anymore, and nevada has realized that. we are all wondering why prices are so high, and there seems to be a relationship to the prophets being record-breaking. it is a growing factor in the state of nevada. about 30% of washoe county's population is hispanic. 40% or more in southern nevada, in clark county, is hispanic. that makes this a very powerful potential voting block. but as was pointed out in the previous segment, it is not a monolith. it is not an organized settle.

it is a complex situation with a lot of different views and priorities. housing is front and center. a majority of the people in the state of nevada cannot afford to buy a home. until is the most common way, and we are painfully aware of that. so the idea that there would be a national focus and help to be able to open that door for first-time buyers has been very popular not only with the latino population, but frankly with all of those who struggle every day with the paycheck they have to create a high quality of life and living that they want. it is the issue along with abortion that i would say are the key issues in this election. they are both factors that will bring out the vote, for sure. host: we got this text from glenn in henderson, nevada, a trump supporter. he said we need our state to turn red this electn. i have occasionally seen more

and more democrats switching to the republican party after realizing how successful trump was during his first presidcy. should not be anywhere near the oval office. she drives us right into the ground. are you seeing democrats switching to republican? and how is donald trump's first term seen and received by nevada voters? guest: it is interesting. nevada has been evolving. we have always kind of been a purple state at heart. we have elected republicans and democrats throughout our history. but starting in 2010, the census really indicated a demographic shift in the state that was moving us toward the blue column. political scientists -- i indicated after the 2016 election that nevada was purple but picking up a pretty strong

blue tint, and that we would likely be moving toward the blueness of the west coast -- california, washington, oregon, hawaii. this is a blue end of the country, and nevada seemed in 2010 to be moving more in that direction. our elections stay very close. i don't see a lot of democrats shifting to the republican column. but we do see more democrats moving in than republicans. the first wave of republicans that moved here were coming from california, not liking the taxes or the government of california. that really started to make it purple, especially in the north, where it is more prominent than in the south. i would say in 2014 the south has been picking up a lot more democrats, and now, because of our economy, we are attracting people from all over the

country, and it is younger and predominantly male in the north, and more apt to vote democrat if they vote. the trick with the democratic party is there are more of them registered but they are harder to motivate to vote. the republicans are usually better able to motivate. but what i have seen is a lot of republicans that don't want to vote for donald trump this time. that is the first time i have seen that. there is a feeling of fatigue. it has been the same candidate three times in a row. there is a greater debate about how successful the trump administration was in its four years. we have had any number of people very much aware of adding to the national debt that was represented by the 2017 x cut. it is adding one -- $1 trillion to 1.5 trillion dollars to the national debt each year. spending for defense surged.

-- was cut. it is less ideological here. it is more on the ground about how am i going to benefit. harris is a better-known candidate here because of her years of service in california. pay attention to california politics as a general rule and she was very popular here in 2020 when she was seeking the presidency and joe ultimately one. i think in that sense, plus the fact that she has been the vice president for the last three and a half years, there is a lot of knowledge and understanding. i think a lot of people are happy to see her bring her values forward, because she is a vice president has supported joe biden. that has equally been a fairly popular presidency in nevada. we generally, i think, don't see democrats or republicans really moving too much in the other direction. the non-partisans are going to decide this election.

most of those are republican moderates who i don't think will be voting for a conservative presidential candidate. host: in montgomery, alabama, harris supporter. hey, jason. caller: i guess my comment is i am voting for harris/walz because trump has declared and the people around him have declared that he wants to surround himself with loyalists. he keeps appealing to the independent arizona voters. that seems to be this common refrain across multiple states, people talking about the value of an independent voter and being independently minded. but trump has said that is not what he wants. and on his way out in 2020, when he was illegally trying to overthrow the results, he was trying to surround himself with loyalists and to do what he wanted, but he had people like bill barr and others around him

that said we are not going to do that. that makes no sense. so now he is saying i don't want that. i want people who are going to do what i say regardless of their oath to the constitution, regardless of the law. that is not a person that i feel like should appeal to anybody, not to mention independents, quote unquote. he wants what he wants personally. in this particular instance, i would say he wants to be president again because he wants to be vengeful. but on top of that he does not want to do with the legal challenges he is facing. if he gets back in office, the vast majority of that goes away, if not all of it, and he gets to do whatever he wants in office with no consequence. host: professor, any comments on that? guest: the partisan frustration

-- most voters are not that left or that right. the color earlier commented about the quality of candidates. i think when i talk to my students, they are often surprised at who our nominees are. how did we get there? most voters in america don't pay attention to what the policy wonks do. they don't really get interested until about right now, and they raise their heads and it kind of overwhelms them, the issues and things that are going on. we do have an election that offers a very dramatic choice, a real difference between the two candidates. i think this color is sensing that. but it also points to the frustration that most voters are hemming, the stress in voting over the last almost 12 years. every election now seems to be so consequential. the passions that we feel, we get so frustrated and even angry

about how can anybody support this candidate or that candidate. and i think you see it in the electors and voters. they see this and are feeling that frustration. again, it is a consequential election that i think will have may be more consequences than we anticipate depending upon who gets into that office, and my heart goes out to the voters. i wish we were in a different situation right now. host: bill in anderson, indiana, a trump supporter. good morning. caller: the reason our prices is so high is it is costing so much to transport goods. all the goods that's being transported in the united states is high. and our deficit is so bad, i

mean, that it is unbelievable how much our deficit is. our social security -- i am 75 years old and our social security is not going to last much longer. it cannot. and all the lies that's being spread about, you know, trump is going to be a dictator on day one -- and maga. why do they want to bring out names, you know what i mean? call people maga republicans. it's just -- host: all right, bill. let's get a response. guest: well, i think people react the way they do to donald trump because of what he is saying. i mean, the message that he

really put out there is he is saying these things. he is bragging about dictatorships and saying what he is going to do on the first day. the sentiments are out there for every voter to see. in terms of the economy, it is always politics, right? there is no logical reason for the gas prices to be as high as they are while the united states is the number one oil producer. the biden administration relaxed access to drilling about two years ago in the process. it is not a supply problem. it is a politics process. the oil industry knows that it prefers one candidate over the other, and it does what it can, i think, to support the candidate that it wants to win. but we also have an issue of climate change and a desire to try to control the use of fossil

fuels. here in the west, people use alternative energy prices -- alternative energy for that reason, and we would like to see investment there because we believe they have four more benefits coming long-term. oil is a finite source. so prices are not always there. it's for a reason that makes sense economically. sometimes they serve a purpose. that is where i think oil prices are right now. host: the color also mentioned social security. even the number of retirees living in nevada, have you seen the voters trust one candidate over the other is far as social security goes? guest: well, yes. i think to begin with there is concern about the viability of social security long-term. for many people, it is their major source of income in retirement. to even suggest it might go away or something might change in

medicare or something like that is very, very unsettling. the number one issue i have heard this year that we talk about is the national debt. americans are aware that the debt is growing way too fast. spending has to somehow match revenue. but the problem is -- in 2000, the united states had a 3.5% growth rate, a balanced budget, and was at a $4.9 trillion debt, and it was paying down the principal. it did that with existing tax revenue. then we had to tax cuts under the bush administration, a tax cut under the trump administration, and most of the deficit, along with the economic collapse in 2008, has been generated by not enough revenue because they did not cut spending when they cut revenue. most of us run our home budgets a lot better than the national

government runs it. people are very frustrated about that because they know this is coming back to roost. when you have a kid, you send them off to be the next generation. you don't want them dealing with the economic collapse that could be coming from a deficit that is out of control. many are frustrated that the issues that are talked about are never the issues you should be talking about, and the national debt is a big issue, have to balance that spending. where do we increase taxes and where do we cut spending? it really should be a focus of the campaigns. host: republican vice presidential nominee jd vance was in reno, nevada yesterday. here he is, encouraging supporters to vote early. sen. vance: we are only going to win if you get out there and vote. it is very simple. i will tell you i don't like election season. i prefer election day. but as our great president said,

donald trump, it is what it is, ok? we are now in a world where the democrats are using every method they can. kamala harris's campaign is using every effort they can -- using mail, early voting, election day voting. so republicans, we have got to play by the same rules and get our people out to vote however we possibly can. [applause] so let's get out there and vote early. let's get out there and vote by mail. let's go out there and vote however makes the most sense. [/video] guest: about early voter turnout, there is a dedication the republicans are voting and may be ahead by 2%. this is a shift. in 2016 and 2020, republicans were basically told to not vote until election day.

but it does not make any sense. the motivation for doing what states like nevada and many other states have done is when you open the door wider you get more people able to participate. voting by mail in balloting has really been a game changer in this and other states. it is open to every cut and silk of voter. -- and ilk of voter. it is tragic that there was this opposition to it. voting on a regular workday is so complicated for the average american in this day and age that it is depressing our voter turnout. member that the united states is the worst democracy of the industrialized nations and a lot of it is because of the way we conduct our elections. now, that makes it more flexible. many republican states went to early voting a long time ago, along with democrats. it is not a partisan decision.

it is to open the door and try to get more americans to vote. we have a democracy. we want as many citizens involved in the decision-making as possible. i don't understand the remarks about that. in a state like nevada, a lot of republicans vote early as well. host: a harris supporter. caller: i will vote for her because i think she will help her country. i served in the vietnam war and i am going on 82 years old. as we, as america, need to look at the candidates and what they say dashed, he don't tell the

truth. you should say what you are going to do, and do it. but you should not lie. host: we have got a question for you from cal in spokane, washington. i did the union support harris? -- why did the unions support harris? millions of immigrants will only put more pressure on wages and we face for more years of the open border. guest: the reality is that the relationship between democrats and union members has been legendarily long. democrats supported the union movement beginning today and there is a loyalty and

connection that has been built there. the inroads during the 1960's was richard nixon. you see that this year with the almost monolithic support of unions for the democratic ticket , save for the teamsters not endorsing this year. the reason is that democrats see the value of organizing, arguing why unions are good. the republican parties and candidates have not been nearly as enthusiastic. we do have the conversation between elon musk and donald trump. it kind of lingers out there and it has been heard. we have a labor shortage in this country in certain areas, certain types of work.

the immigrant labor, the migrant labor, those who come to this country seeking a better life are the ones filling those positions. if they are not coming, we have a problem. it is a threat to the vitality of the economy. it is in part what keeps our food prices lower, because they have been more willing to work at lower wages here in the states. also, the notion of an open border -- it is relative. timing is everything. you have the collapse of venezuela and colombia. you have mass migrations from two countries that are embroiled in tremendous violence. and you have the country of mexico -- we don't have a border with venezuela and colombia. we have a border with mexico. the republican willingness to either block them at the southern border -- it is a

complex situation that is not a democrat or republican problem. it is working with their neighbors and trying to figure out the causes of why these people are coming. we have been very tight on the issue of immigration. the issue here at the border has been refugee status. people are fleeing violence because their lives are threatened. the united states has had a history of wanting to be helpful for those who are seeking refugee status. frankly, the border is under control right now. there was a. -- there was a period under the trump administration. democrats and republicans have something on the table. they should pass it and we can move on to other issues. host: one more question before we go, and