host: 40% registered republicans and 18% identifying themselves as other. when it comes to mail-in and early in person votes requested nationally, that number goes to 59,000 plus of those mail-in and early in person votes. 45% of those for those registered democrats leaning that way and 29% of those republicans and that is where those early votes currently stand when it comes to this week . when it comes to events today, vice president harris after being in michigan yesterday will focus on pennsylvania today. today she will be in west philadelphia where she will deliver remarks at a church followed by a visit to a barbershop. she will also visit a puerto rican restaurant and meet families at a youth basketball center. she is expected to travel to other states including michigan.

when it comes to that rally featuring former president trump at madison square garden, this is from nbc new york saying some of the people expected to speak at that rally will be senator jd vance, speaker mike johnson, resident -- representative daniels, robert kennedy junior, elon musk and the list goes from there. a lot going on during these final days of the complaint. if you want to let us know your thoughts so far, different lines today. if you are a first-time voter, (202) 748-8000 the number to call. if you are not voting this election cycle and you want to tell us why, (202) 748-8001. for all others, (202) 748-8002. as always, make your thoughts on social media and on x and send

us a text if you wish at (202) 748-8003. it was in michigan yesterday where the featured speaker for vice president harris was michelle obama. she addressed the crowd talking specifically to those who have not made up their minds when it comes to who they will vote for. here is a portion of that from yesterday. [video clip] >> let me tell you who is not tuning out. many of the folks who served closest to trump and saw the danger firsthand. his former vice president. almost half of his former cabinet members. a four star general and republican governors and senators and former house members, all of whom are not publicly supporting his candidacy the second time around. do you hear what i said?

they are saying no, thank you. many are speaking out. his chairman of the joint chiefs of staff said if these are his words, that trump is fascist to the core, is joint chiefs of staff. these folks know that nothing this man does or says is funny in any way. i hope you will forgive me if i am a little frustrated that some of us are choosing to ignore donald trump's gross incompetence while asking kamala to dabble up at every turn. i hope you will forgive me that we are a little angry to his erratic behavior, his history as a convicted felon, a known slumlord, a predator found liable for sexual abuse, all of

this while we pick apart kamala 's answers from interviews that he does not even have the courage to do. [applause] i am praying that those of us contemplating voting for trump or not voting at all, will snap out of whatever fog we are in. [end video clip] host: that event today still available on c-span.org and our video app. there are the lines to call this morning on your discussion of campaign 2024. first-time voters, (202) 748-8000. if you are not voting, (202) 748-8001. all others, (202) 748-8002. we will start with marie on our other line in pennsylvania where vice president harris will be today. good morning. caller: good morning. if trump wins, this will be my last call because washington

journal will not exist. as a true fascist, trump has promised he will close down any broadcast that criticizes him. america, which is the envy of the world today, will become a failed state. why did trump post that he hated taylor swift because she said she is not voting for him? he wanted to paint a target on her back. you macho men, what will you do when people who express opposition to trump our card off to jail and there is nothing any of you can do to help me? host: why are you convinced those things will happen? she is gone. yolanda in nashville, tennessee. hello. caller: i think the previous caller is a nut head. none of that stuff is going to happen. if that stuff was going to happen, it would have happened during his first term. none of that stuff will happen.

we need trump back in office or else we are -- host: that is yolanda calling in. callers, i will advise you as far as language is concerned, usual best discretion. pick the lines that best represent you and give us a call. if you called in the last 30 days, if you would hold off on doing so today, we appreciate it. axios takes a look at the states both candidates are focusing on. you have probably figured it out by now. this is from august, october, since harris formerly -- formally became the nominee, she has been to wisconsin six times, north carolina four times, arizona three times and nevada three times. also in new york two times.

california two times. when it comes to former president trump, visited pennsylvania 11 times, michigan nine times. north carolina seven times. wisconsin, five times. nevada, four times and arizona three times. cheryl in florida, go ahead. caller: thank you for taking my call. i hope you let me say what i want to say. the american people are the ones who suffer when we do not have a free and fair press on what appears to be a state run media propaganda machine. that woman who called, your first caller, all of you should be ashamed. even c-span. i have been watching you for years, it has devolved into a platform that gleefully welcomes people. you have no standards for your callers who spread hateful

divisive smears and lies. if it is against donald trump, all the better. they have come on your program and flat out lied and they have never corrected. this is what is happening in this country. people should not be afraid to vote for their choice in candidate. donald is not a fascist. he is not racist. talk to anybody who knows him and has spent time with him. he is a warm, gracious, very sociable person. he wants what is best for all american citizens. i would like for c-span 2 air the clip yesterday from the michigan rally where the muslim leaders endorsed him. it was a very powerful moment. host: that is coming up shortly. let's hear from a first time voter from pennsylvania. john, go ahead. caller: trump. i am voting for trump.

never voted in my life. i am voting for trump. host: when you say you never voted, you mean presidential elections, midterm elections? how far does that go? caller: i never voted, period. this is my first time voting, 50 years old. host: what changed your mind this time around? caller: i believe in trump. i believe in trump being a politician. he is a regular person. he just won my vote and i never voted. host: ok. john there. first-time voters, make your thoughts like john. (202) 748-8000 is how you do that. we have a line for those not voting. maybe you have decided this is not for you. (202) 748-8001 is how you can

call us on that line. we have a line for all others. (202) 748-8002. that is where stephen is, gainesville, florida on the line for others. hello. caller: good morning. i'm stunned by some of the calls i've heard this morning already. they are lying, c-span has flip-flopped, it is corporate america giving us our food for thought. they are right, in a sense. we do have our national media that feeds us stuff. but i have been watching c-span and i noticed the trump campaign has been getting plenty of free airtime and the antics of the man are covered in depth. he is not a regular guy. what regular guy has a private jet and lives in a mansion in florida?

i am reminded of the forest gump movie. stupid is as stupid does. i do not want to cast dispersion on people who think that this guy is ok. but he is a fascist. my dad risked his life in world war ii on convoy patrol. he is not a loser. he is not a sucker. i had two friends who died in vietnam. they are not losers and suckers. the man has been convicted of rape in civil court and has felonies. he is no man to be placing a wreath on the tomb of the unknown soldier. i have been to arlington cemetery four times. host: let's hear from roy in tennessee, first time voter. caller: good morning. i'm calling from nashville. my name is roy. this is the first time i will be voting. i just registered six months ago. i have never voted in a

presidential election, any election. i do have a criminal background. i will not go into detail on that. i was an over the road trucker and i did my time. not only do i feel but the state of tennessee feels i have been rehabilitated to the point where i am able to cast a legal ballot. that being said, i will be voting for president trump in the selection and i am thrilled to do so. i agreed with an earlier caller, yolanda. she made an excellent point. i think this country will go down the tubes if president trump is not reelected. i cannot emphasize that enough. president trump needs to be reelected because if we elect kamala harris by some reason of insanity, this country is not coming back. i firmly believe that. i know a lot of american people agree with me. host: joseph, massachusetts, on

the other line. caller: joseph from massachusetts. i am a proud black man and i probably voted for donald trump the last time he was in office and i would probably vote for him again. i took a course on malcolm x. black people in america, you have been hoodwinked, tricked, bamboozled, fool. they take black people for granted. they show up in a black church, show up with yang yang and they will practice it. they have been talking about jobs for the black man in the inner-city. i have lived quite a few places in america and icy black men losing out and the black families breaking up. 25% -- when he made that

comment. 33% of black children are born out of wedlock. host: how does that relate to campaign 2024? caller: you need to emphasize jobs for black men. if black men get a job, crime will not exist so much of the black community. they will raise their families, they will teach these young black boys and not be delinquent like i was, how to be a respectable man i'm a how to respect the black woman, how to raise a family, how to treat young black girls respectfully and with dignity. host: let's hear from michael, first time voter in alabama. michael, first time voter, hello. caller: you all did not give me time to say nothing. host: you are currently on. go ahead.

caller: we have donald trump and harris running for president. what i'm trying to say is neither one of them are doing it for me. what is the problem? i don't care who wins. none of them are doing anything for me. host: you are a first time voter. who are you voting for? caller: i said neither one of them are doing anything for me. host: we will stop you there and remind people when it comes to the lines, pick the line that best represent you. as you do, we will show you a bit from former president trump last night, one of the things that ended up being a feature was the endorsement from muslim voters in michigan. this took place yesterday. here is a portion. [video clip] fmr. pres. trump: jews, catholics, evangelicals, mormons and muslims are joining our

calls in larger numbers than ever before and now the most wonderful thing is happening. we are winning overwhelming support from the muslim and arab voters right here in michigan. can you believe it? it is great. earlier today i had an incredible meeting, great meeting. you know what they want? they want peace. they are great people with a group of muslim -- like everyone here today, they could turn the election one way or the other. we have so many votes but we have to get more. we have to get more. the muslim and error voters -- arab voters want a stop to the endless wars and return to peace in the middle east. that's all they want.

like we had under president donald j. trump. have you ever heard of him? they want strength in the oval office, they want law and order. they common sense. they are not into the transgender operations. they are not into men playing in women's sports. they want a booming economy kamala and they do not like kamala -- they do not like kamala's plan to provide healthcare to illegal migrants or secretly change the gender of our children at school without parental consent or knowledge. i am thrilled to accept the endorsement. nobody thought this was going to happen, nobody appeared this was a great group of people. but they always were democrat. they look at her and they say, forget it. [end video clip] host: that is also available on the website and the video app if

you want to see more of that rally. some people responding on facebook with the first time you have cast a vote. lori saying the first election r her was 1984. i thought it was awes that we president nominee.n vice i have voted in erelection since i was able to. since 1991, it is my honor and duty to do that. this is chris saying i vote in every election. heath saying i vote for both in presidential and midterm. my first vote was for ronald reagan. we had an economic crisis and foreign adversaries were taking advantage of our weakness. it democrat turned repubca got us back on the right track. john mcnally saying, i have always voted in presidenti elections and ste imary elections, state and local level position elections and not so much and in retrospect, that wasn't mistake -- that was a

mistake. some perspective from the facebook viewers. if you want to give us that experience if you are a first time voter, (202) 748-8000. if you are not voting, (202) 748-8001. all others, (202) 748-8002. shane on the nonvoting line in maine. go ahead. caller: my name is shane. i think it is scary that kamala harris going for presidency. i'm just scared about it. i don't know what else more to say. host: you said you are not voting. tell us why. caller: i am scared. i think the word salads and the cackling, it scares me. but trump scares me too. host: so you will stay out of it altogether?

caller: i think it is the best thing i can do for myself and for my family and friends. host: ok. richard is in arkansas on the others line. hi. caller: yeah. i think that on a bigger, grander scale the voting thing is pretty fraudulent. i can give you an example of having lived in california and been in a single occupancy room and i was there back in 2019 and i registered to vote and i voted within weeks and i am now here in arkansas and have lived here for two years. i have a drivers license. i have been paying my taxes. i went to the voting booth and

they still don't have my name on the ballots. i sent my registration more than two months ago and now the cutoff deadline for voting registration was october 7 and i have been down to the polling place three times. i have called the registrar's office many times and they still have not gotten back to me and that is just one example of one person. if you look at virginia and the nonregistered voters and the illegal aliens, i think merrick garland's justice department is bringing a lawsuit against the governor and the state of virginia for them trying to prevent illegals from voting. on a much larger scale i think the whole thing is fraudulent. i think it is rate. -- rigged. white america needs to lock and load. host: we will stop you right

there. news reporting that a federal judge friday granted the department of justice request to block virginia from systematically removing alleged noncitizens from the voter ro s ls. it was ordered to restore the voter registrations of more than 1600 people who were removed in recent months. this decision comes at this time 10 days before election day, one month after early voting got underway in the state. that is nbc news reporting there when it comes to the issues of virginia. when you go to the new york times this morning, another story about the department of justice, this close to election day, the headline saying as election day nears the justice department tries to stay clear of politics. it highlights that the department has instituted what many incisors -- insiders refer

to as the 30 day rule, intended to reduce the number of statements by top officials. a memo issued this summer says senior officials, "must be vigilant to prevent the appearance that any of our official duties are an effort to influence the outcome of an election." more there from the new york times if you want to read that. we will go to chadwick in mississippi on the line for others. good morning. caller: thank you for allowing me to assert my opinions and rights. i am another black man. another caller was saying they had a criminal background. i have a criminal back on as well. i live in mississippi. i believe we have to push the purpose. not necessarily pointing fingers.

we are actually giving solutions to problems. secondly i want to say i am glad the republicans and democrats are finding ways to come together. during covid i did not care if you were republican or democrat. covid really changed some things and brought us together. host: how does that refer to campaign 2024? caller: in 1944 david green glass and his espionage and the things he got caught up in. we have too much going on here. it is crazy when you think about a democracy. words to hurt in this case because things have been said to almost cause an overthrow in our government. we need to continue to hang onto the fabric of our democracy. ok. host: ok. nate in indiana on the one for

others. caller: good morning. a lot of men on this morning. i am a lifetime republican. to the men, i would encourage you to go and listen to trump's testimony in the eugene carroll case. in his sworn testimony trump said that he could do anything he wants to to your wife, to your daughter, to your granddaughters. in sworn testimony. go listen to it. host: how does it relate to this campaign season? caller: i have two point. first of all, my manhood will not allow me to vote for someone like that. secondly, before i left my driveway this morning, i put my hand over my heart and i pledge allegiance to a republic.

in a republic the states decide who they want for president. the only reason as a republican i would ever consider voting for a democrat for the first time in my life is to defend a republic because just as he assaults women, he assaulted our republic by coming up with a fake set of electors and trying to force those electors with his name on it on to our representatives, onto the senate. that is an assault on the republic. host: ok. that is nate in indiana. we will hear from someone who is not voting. this is juan in florida. caller: hello. how are you? host: fine, thank you. caller: i just wanted to put it

out there that the reason i am not voting is due to the fact that like other people have said , they are afraid of what is going on. they don't know the right sources -- right choices or whatever. host: ok, a first time voter, maria in washington, d.c.. hello. caller: good morning. yes, it is my first time. i am a new citizen. i voted in the midterms last time but it is my first presidential election. a couple of comments i have heard on this network, never remember there was this one lady who said those poll workers could not be more than 18. when i try to have my id, they did not even ask where i lived.

here is the thing, that is how it went for me too in the midterms. voter registration without id is allowed in 18 states. when you give your name, the poll workers will pull out your registration from the voter rolls. that is how they know, they don't need your id. if you did not have an idea in the first place, you would not be able to vote. it is similar to what you do when you pick up your prescription. they ask you what your name is and date of birth and they look you up. that is how it works. the other comment that i heard is from someone who said, this person was getting their drivers license at the dmv and there was a lady with broken english getting their license and the worker asked if they wanted a voter registration.

here's the thing, maybe that person was getting registered for the first time. host: that said, this time around, how much confidence do you have in the voting system particularly in washington, d.c. ? caller: not just here but i have full confidence in the voting system. what i was giving you was to illustrate it is very easy to jump on an conspiracy theory when you don't know how the system works. host: ok. maria in washington, d.c.. we will continue on again for campaign 2024 and all things related, (202) 748-8000. for those first-time voters out there. if you are not voting, (202) 748-8001. all others, (202) 748-8002. in recent days the washington post announcing that they would not endorse a presidential candidate. ruth marcus responding to that

choice under the headline, the wrong choice at the worst possible time in which ruth marcus writes, "at a moment when they should have been sounding the call about the dangers that donald trump posted to the nation and the world has chosen instead to pull back. that is the wrong choice at the worst possible time. i dissent on the perspective who spent two decades as a member of the post-editorial board, i stepped away last year. from that experience, you win some and lose some. nobody agrees with every position it takes. the newspaper is required to have a page that reflect the owner's point of view. this is not the time to make such a shift. it is time to speak out as loud and convincingly as possible to make the case that trump is dangerously unfit to hold the highest office in the land." some responses from long-time

staffers at the washington post regarding the decision not to endorse by the paper's editor. tommy in georgia on the one for others talking about campaign 2024. go ahead. caller: yes. i hope you have time for me to unload a couple of points. i was listening to you this morning. you have people coming over the airwaves saying how good and kind donald trump is but the people who know him and work with him, our general officers are saying this man is totally opposite but they do not want to believe it. i don't understand that. when it comes to sex changes, people need to look this up. that is a donald trump policy. he is the one who was giving out sex changes in prison. host: jeff in arkansas, first time voter. good morning. caller: yes sir.

i am in my mid-50's and i have never voted because i think things always go the way i want to go anyway. i'm going to vote this time because the callers like the last one like to repeat something they hear on the radio and they do not look up the stuff themselves. the fellow who just called and served in the military. i served in the military. you disrespect people from the military when you repeat lies like trump saying they were trump's -- chumps and suckers. he never said that. it is ridiculous. . i am tired of the media beating up on this guy. i don't know him. he might be a great guy. but don't tell lies about him. host: how is it that you are a first time voter? caller: because i want to make sure that he definitely wins.

i know my state is going to go red. it is not a problem. but i wanted my vote to count. it never mattered before because it always goes the way i want anyway. host: jeff on the first time voting line. the not voting line we have set aside is where john is out of rockville, maryland. hello. caller: hello. i am disillusioned with the whole voting process in general. i work in washington, d.c. i see things that people outside the beltway do not see. it is all a hoax, it is. just a big scam. this political machine. if you think your vote really counts, it is basically going into a plot to support the unity party. the joint chief makes the calls and whoever they want is who

they will get. this election is not about kamala harris or donald trump. it is about getting j.d. vance in there as a two term follow-up. that is where the important thing is. host: what led you to believe that? caller: he is getting huge support from the military complex, volunteer. peter peel is his handler. he is giving them mega dollars to get him on board. it is choreographed. you can vote for who you want. this is who they are putting out. it is about our wars, america's dominance, our reserve currency, status. it is about us being on top. it always has been. host: jeff in indianapolis on the one for others. hi there. caller: hello? host: go ahead.

caller: thank you for taking my call. i became eligible to vote in 1979. i have voted in every election. municipal, midterm congressional and presidential and i plan on voting this year. what i see amongst many other voters out there are voters who really do not do their research and really do not do their research and get a clear understanding of what is going on. most of them are being bamboozled. most of them are being hoodwinked. most of them are being tricked and fooled by a person who has been doing this his whole life. donald trump. if anybody believes that donald trump is going to make things better for them, i got some land in arizona at a really low price and they can buy it. because he has been doing

nothing but fooling people and he has been doing it his whole life, his whole career. that is why i don't understand why people think he will be some kind of savior for them when he is not. host: jeff in indianapolis. a first time voter, this is peter in florida. caller: hello. my name is peter. i am a first time voter. my question is this, i am undecided who i want to vote for but kamala harris is probably top of my list. i have a problem with the fact that trump field -- failed to debate harris. why would you not debate her if you were seeking office? host: you mean debate her a second time? caller: yes, debate her a second time. my second question is this.

i'm a convicted felon and an army veteran. it took me 15 years to get my rights back. this man is 8:34 convicted felon and he is allowed -- this man is a 34 time convicted felon and he is allowed to vote in an election? he is allowed to control access to a we the weapon? if anyone is voting for trump, they are sending the country to communism. host: ok. california, this is leah on the not voting line. hello. caller: my comment is that until money is taking out of -- taken out of politics, it is hard to trust to do vote for -- who to vote for because everyone is bought by big business. i want to believe in good social rights and politicians doing the right thing. but being that everyone is so owned by corporations and corporate interests, it is

really hard to want to vote for people at this point. that is all i have to say. host: what would you say if you were looking at either kamala harris and the former president and saying they are owned by big business? which businesses own either candidate? caller: what examples? all of the oil companies and everything. come on. we all know the truth about it. host: that is leah in california. you can continue calling us about your thoughts on this campaign 2024 election day one week from tuesday. (202) 748-8000 for those of you first-time voters in the audience and you want to share your experiences. (202) 748-8001 if you are not voting and you want to share that experience as well. as always the others line, (202) 748-8002 is how you make your

thoughts known. you can text us at (202) 748-8003. as always, the social media line is available at facebook.com/c-span and c-spanwj on x. from florida, william. hello. caller: since when is it ok for a person to run for the presidency with no primary? you had the majority leader walk in the office with nancy pelosi and say you are done and you need to move out of the way. that is not legal. how does that happen all of a sudden with two months to go? it should not happen. host: ok. jeff is not voting and he is in

maryland. jeff, hello. caller: hello. host: you are on. caller: yes sir. this is my first time voting. host: caller, i apologize. i will stop you right there. we have a line for first-time voters out there. if you would call on that line, (202) 748-8000 is the line to make sure you can register your thoughts there. for those not voting, (202) 748-8001 is the line you can choose. let's hear from the others line in new jersey, cindy. caller: good morning. i am appalled at people calling and wanting to vote for this man. this is a convicted criminal. he could care less about women. heat it down to -- he did not do anything to this economy. he inherited from barack obama and after that he destroyed it.

you should be ashamed of yourself as someone who rapes women, who talks about women like dogs. the other thing, you have the muslim community. this is a man who does not even want muslims in this country. women, we need to take over and get this man out of office. host: that call was cindy. when it comes to issues of international and foreign affairs, it was the vice president yesterday during the rally in michigan while she was talking, a protester protesting about events in gaza. here how that played out yesterday. [video clip] >> we are fighting for america's future and we understand the opportunity we have before us to turn the page on the fear. [booing]

[general crowd noise] ok. thank you all. thank you all. and listen, on the topic of gaza , we must end that war. [end video clip] host: more to that rally featuring michelle obama as well if you want to see it on the website and the app. the washington post looks at that around states and where the vice president and the former president might have their strengths when it comes to voters. taking a look at pennsylvania, the washington post highlighted the fact that harris's advantage in pennsylvania suburbs was driven by female donors, 78% of

home supported harris instead of trump. 62% of suburban male donors supported harris. not all of the state suburbs supported equally. in four main suburban counties, three quarters gave to harris but in six suburbs, trump splits apart. the vice president is expected to be in philadelphia today. when it comes to arizona, former president trump doing well with men in the least diverse parts. in a white rural county, trump received over 80% of young men's donations. in the more urban and majority white excerpts, around two thirds of young men gave to the former president. that is more the analysis. on this program over the last week, we have been looking at states individually,

battleground states, where the candidates are doing well and where they need support. to revisit that, do so at our website at c-span.org, part of our campaign 2024 coverage. let's hear from frank in north carolina. good morning. frank, hello. caller: hello. host: go ahead. caller: yes, this is frank from north carolina. i would like to speak to the young black men who claimed there are no jobs. trucks are running up and down the road. we are hiring. mcdonald's is hiring. burger king is hiring. nobody is going to give you anything. you will have to get it for yourself. i am 82 years old. i have worked 41 years on one job. i do not owe anybody anything but tax. get off of your keester.

you have one vote. use it wisely. host: first-time voter, allen, in ohio. caller: you are doing an excellent job. my question is this, take a lie detector test. the military uses lie detector tests. the cia, the fbi. too many people are saying things that are not true. the only way to to figure it out is to let them take a lie detector test while they are saying it. host: how is it that you are a first-time voter? you have never voted before? caller: the person with the most money wins it seems like. host: you have never voted in a presidential election before? caller: no because to me it was all about ahead of time with tremendous amounts of money. if you are a billionaire, you will win. host: what's different this time around that you are a first-time voter? caller: the miracle of god. why would donald trump -- why

would god not allow donald trump to get killed? i think he's going to win. host: ok. let's hear from michael in indiana on the others line. caller: good morning. i have been voting since i was 18 years old and i am 70 now. people seem like they are going to vote against their own interests. why would you vote for somebody who did not do anything for the economy like the one caller said, the lady. she said he inherited the best economy from barack obama and biden. when colby came, -- when covid came, it got destroyed. how could anyone think he is good on the economy? i think it is a joke. he inherited the economy. all he had to do was sit there and do his job. host: when you say he inherited,

how do you know that for certain? caller: because i am into -- he inherited the economy. the economy was good when he got the economy. he did not do anything to make the economy great. i remember newt gingrich said barack obama would not get gas under two dollars. boom. gas was under two dollars when barack obama was in. it is a known fact. gas was down under two dollars when barack obama was in. newt gingrich right on the talk show, that he would never get it down to under two dollars and he did that. when he got in then covid, they were sending masks to putin.

my daughter made masks. everybody wanted a mask. a lot of people died. i have two cousins who died from covid. host: michael there in indiana speaking of gasoline. this is the latest snapshot. when it comes to gas prices averaging $3.14 per gallon nationwide with a three year low. they range from $2.70 to $2.90 per gallon throughout much of the sunbelt. according to aaa the motor club america has long use gas prices to gauge the country's economy. fuel costs typically lift approval rights along with standing of whoever is in the right house -- white house while rising costs have the opposite effect. americans have a history of punishing presidents according to what is going on at the pumps. if prices are going down, people tend to say that things are going better. let's not change horses

midstream. experts caution it might not be the case this time around. although gas prices are a well-established standard for economic issues, voters are more focused on rising costs for housing, food and utilities. that is from the washington post this morning. for the not voting line, sam in maryland. caller: good morning. i will not be voting because it is more or less for tax issues. the last time donald trump did his tax plan, it increased my tax. also, with the electrician, there were deductions that we used to take off. so they did away with all of the deductions. union dues, the tools we buy. those are all the things he did away with.

uniforms, they did away with all of that. even the mortgage interest, they messed with that. that increases my tax liabilities. host: when you say you are not voting, what is it about the vice president's tax policy that you disapprove of? caller: she is more or less giving away stuff which means somebody has to pay for it. my tax will keep going up. that put me in another bracket. i will stop working more hours. all of the overtime will give it away. i am working a lot of overtime. that puts me in a different liability if i keep working all of these hours. it will increase taxes and giving away free things and giving tax breaks for this and that, i will be paying more in

taxes so i will just sit down. host: horace in arizona on the line for others. caller: hello? host: you are on. caller: good morning. you are doing a good job. i like this program. i just cannot understand why trump, the muslim people are voting for donald trump. the way he dogged them out when he stepped off of that escalator and said he was going to ban them from living here, they are going to say that because of stuff that kamala cannot stop right away as far as gaza, give her a chance to get busy.

donald trump, he is a fascist. he believes in hitler. all the bad stuff he has done and people talk about they are undecided who they will vote for. he should come up nowhere in that conversation. he is just like netanyahu overseas. he is afraid of going to jail. if he loses, there is a good chance that he might be locked up. host: ok. one of the interviews that will take place later on, an interview with former president trump's running mate j.d. vance. one of the discussion points of that interview, senator vance was asked about and defending comments made by the former president when it comes to certain democratic leaders.

here is that exchange. [video clip] >> this week we learned that china was behind a campaign targeting the phones of both presidential campaigns, highlighting the threat that china poses to this country. and yet china recently called his domestic political opponents the enemy from within and said they are more dangerous than russia and china. do you believe that people like adam schiff and nancy pelosi are more dangerous than china? >> what donald trump said is that those folks pose a greater threat to the united states's peace and security. >> you agree with him? they pose a larger threat than russia and china? >> what they said -- what he said is that the biggest threat is not a foreign adversary because we can handle these guys. we can handle foreign conquest. with nancy pelosi's long life and leadership the united states has gone from the preeminent industrial power of the world to second next to china.

that belongs on nancy pelosi's shoulders and if we will have a more prosperous country, we have to recognize our own leadership is why we lost our industrial base to china. her own leadership is failing to lead his country to peace and prosperity. kamala harris, when i look at the biggest threats to america, a look at the fact that people cannot afford groceries, the fact that we cannot meet recruitment goals in the military, the fact that america has a right open -- wide open southern border, that is a bigger threat and yes, it is caused by broken leadership. host: again, that full interview expected later today on nbc. let's hear from mary in new york on the line for others. good morning. caller: good morning. what i want to make a comment about is it is one thing when people running for office only

because of money, but it is another to lie about policies. kamala harris has lied about trump's policies. the other day a woman called and was very upset because she was told that trump is going to cancel social security. he never said that. he said he would preserve social security and the age of social security and even on-tax social security. it is very dangerous when people lie about policies. harris kept saying that he would cut taxes only for the poor and allow less taxes for the rich. trump cut middle-class taxes. he had a propers -- prosperous economy. he did not just inherit obama's economy. he had a good economy on his policies. host: such as what? caller: excuse me?

host: what policy? caller: i just named one of them. he cut taxes for the middle class. of the many many things he did. and also, -- host: ok. let's hear from bernie in kentucky on the line for others. caller: hello. i vote in all elections, local, state, federal. always have. i want to remind everyone that came painting is exactly it. campaigning is campaigning. one week from tuesday, we will be free from all of this campaigning. i do not want to rag on the candidates but hopefully whoever is in the white house will check in with their conscious before they make any decisions on our lives.

the series you ran last week was one of the most educational things i have ever seen in my life. i appreciate that. host: i appreciate that. a lot of work from my colleagues at the journal put that together. that is available at the website if you want to check out the segments taking a look at the background states this election cycle. this will be from ohio, michael online for others. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i would like to point out two issues with this election. first of all, people overlook that half the population does not pay taxes. i don't care who you are. if you make $10,000 per year or $100 million per year. you should be paying taxes period. you take advantage of this country but you do not contribute? wrong. the only issue i see separating these two people because kamala

and trump try to copy each other on different issues. kamala really follows a lot of trump. the democrats are playing this abortion issue because they were successful in the 2022 election. it is a sign of a sick society if all you can run on is killing babies. people in their conscious should consider what is going on here. host: michael in >> thank you for those of you participated. wel look at polling and accuracies in these final day of campaign 2024 with american university, we'll join us next. we'll talk with seth kaplan, he's the author of fragile neigorhoods, repairing society one zip code of a timand how

the topic of strengthening the neighborhood can reverse that. those conversations are coming up on "washington journal. " she did end up having one of the world's interviews with him in december of 1931. >> it was an important ber view because in that interview he basically made it clear that he didn't have to take germany by

force. he was getting more power in every election. he really thought he was being in control within a year. he missed it by a month. he made it clear once he and the nazis were in power, they intended to undo the republic and to create a republic of what she describes with some irony. >> pamela toler with her book tonight on cspan's q&a. you can listen to her q & a on our free cpan app. this election night, cspan delivers something different, not just the presidential race but the state races.

no political pundents and no spin. the results. follow c-span election night live on tuesday on november 5th on our free c-span video app. washington journal continues. our first call, i am sorry, our guest is joseph campbell. he's also the author of "polling failure" in u.s. presidential election. professional campbell, thank you for your time. >> thank you, it is a pleasure to be here. >> i am sure you get a lot of polling especially at this stage so close to the election, what's your sense of accuracy and what you are seeing coming out so far? >> it is a tight race. i don't think there is any doubt about that. all the polls signalling it is a nail biter down to the wire.

whether that holds nine days out, it is certainly an open question. as of now and a little more than a week before the election, we are a real nail biter stage. >> host: what do you think how polling is done? >> pollsters do a lot of hard work and they do it right. they don't do it to get it right. so pollsters are professionals. they know what they are doing and they have a lot of science behind them in terms of sampling and methodologies and so forth. it is an effort they make trying to get it right. with that said, polling does have a checker his tri in this country. the book discusses nine polling cases of the presidential failures. going back to franklin roosevelt and the literally digest.

>> we had a number of polling failures in presidential elections and in 2020, we had the worst collective polling performance in 40 years, 1980, and the polls directionally were accurate. they pointed to the right winner if you will in the race but they largely over stated joe biden's support or more specifically under stated donald trump support in his reelection that year. that performance was pretty disappointing, i would say. >> host: we'll talk about some more of those specific examples. when you talk about polling failures, is it the data that's collected or how the data is interpreted or a combination? >> it is both. how data are gathered and presented and analyzed and interpreted. most pollsters have at the end of the top line of their surveys do show that the margin is such

and such. on this morning, sunday morning, the real clear politics average of polls compiles of all the polls show that donald trump has a 0.1% lead. that's very, very narrow. some of the prominent polls showing a tie race. this includes emerson college and cnn and new york times. those polls are well-known and have a lot of prominent and they're showing a tie race and even though "the washington post" this morning on their front page - is that interesting? after all that we have been through this election year and cycle, the polls seemed to be very rigid in terms of close race coming down, a nail biter. >> host: when should a person pay attention and suppose know you pay attention closer to the day, when the vice president

became the nominee, is that the time to pay attention or closer or is there a sweet spot when you start to pay attention? >> that's really about ten days out or two weeks out. that's when people are really paying attention to the polls and not the press and pollsters themselves. people at large, the public at large begins to pay closer attention to the presidential race. we are within that window now and we are nine day is out. i think that's the time when people pay attention to the polls. whether the polls are going to make any dramatic movement that remains to be seen and it is an open question. we have seen it happen before in presidential election and polls looked like they were signalling a close race and only for that race to turn out to be a one sided or lopsided outcome. that was in 1980 with ronald reagan and jimmy carter paired off, close race until the end. the last week or the last weekend before the election,

people decided to vote for ronald reagan and repudiated carter and his presidency. that turned out to be a near landslide that no pollsters saw coming. i don't think we'll see a near landslide in 2024. the 1980 model was certainly in the back of my mind. >> host: joseph campbell is our guest, he's the author of the book "polling failures," if you want to ask questions or the process of the polling, 202-708-8000 for independent. you can text us your thoughts. professor campbell, what makes the quality of the polls? >> pollsters do not rely on any

single technique or strategy. it is a hybrid approach. there is some use of the internet and mail-in options. so, many pollsters are using what's called multi-approaches to gather samples. the best samples are probability, everybody in the poll, registered voters have a chance to be included in the survey. those tend to be the best survey in 2020, some of the better surveys were way off. it is a difficult and a fragile process, taking a sample and doing a good poll is expensive and it is time consuming and no guarantee it is going to be correct. >> you brought up 2020, i want to revisit what happened during that time?

>> during joe biden and donald trump, the incumbent president was sitting a lopsided victory for joe biden. cnn, its final poll at late october of 2020, signals that joe biden had a 12 percent lead over donald trump. other media polls were in the neighborhood of 10% point. biden won the popular vote by 4.5% point. that says there were a few that got it really close. there was a college polling which was one of the stronger pollsters out there. emerson had by five percentage point. so, it is very close.

if you are half of a percentage point within the final margin, that's spot on success. >> host: the title of your book, "gallup," can you talk about why you put it on the public? >> as with any process in term of book writing, what's the title is going to be is always a challenge and the acquisition at the university of california press which published the book, he and i went back and forth on a number of different titles and i just sort of laid up this one. how about calling it "lost in a gallup" which stems from a humorous comment at the end of 1948 election. it was supposed to be the overall victory and hands down winner in that race and harry truman pulled one of the greatest upset in the american presidential history.

one of the humor columns afterwards said harry truman was a first president that lose in a gallup and win in a walk. gallup is a shorthand for a poll. so that's what that humorous meant. i laid that option out there for the acquisition. hey, i kind of liked it. let's go th it. "lost from the gallup" is borrowed from the 1948's election aftermath. i don't think a gallup is synonymous these days with opinion polls but certainly back in the early days. >> host: joseph campbell is our guest, if you want to talk about the accuracy of polling, again, you can call us on the line or send us a text. you highlight some other things, some other major years and i want to give you the dates and you can fill in the blanks. going back to 2020 and 2016, hillary clinton and donald trump, and talk about what

polling was saying and what happened? >> polling was signalling a close race at the end of the campaign between hillary clinton and donald trump. many of the poll based models, these are forecasting models were signalling that hillary clinton was going to win easily. huntington post had a model it was a 98.2% chance that hillary clinton will win the election and donald trump had essentially no route and passage way to an electoral college victory. it turned out to be quite something other than the 98.2% certainty. there were other forecast models, one from princeton university consortium and they had hillary clinton winning at 99%. these were poll based forecast that really helps to set the

agenda for news organizations and the public at large is what you expect. the shock of the 2016 election was profound. nobody was really expecting that donald trump was going to win. he lost the popular vote clearly to hillary clinton but won the electoral college. as that outcome was not expected by anyone and not even donald trump. so, the shock of the aftermath of 2016 had to have been comparable to 1948 which i mentioned a moment ago when harry truman pulled the upset of all time of the presidential election. his victory was not expected at all. he won and everybody was just stunned by that. >> host: one of the polling scientists emerged in 2016, the gentleman named wang. >> yes, he was the guy that ran the princeton forecast model.

he was an interesting guy. he said if donald trump wins more than 240 or more. if he wins 240, sam wang says i would go on tv and eat a bug. he did. >> host: we have that on 2016. >> he ate locus and honey and regardless of the things in the wilderness and a little bit. after all, i was wrong and nobody made the promise i did. i am hoping that we can get back to data and thinking thoughtfully of policy issues and having said that and saying good morning to everyone else out there on both sides. see that, erika? okay? >> host: well, he probably ruined his breakfast but he kept his promise.

>> he did, it went on a c-span show and a can of gourmet crickets and as you saw a little spoon-full and he pronounced it tased a little nutty afterwards. >> host: it is good for him to fulfill his commitment. we have seen over the years from time to time, well, i will eat my column if this prediction of mine is inaccurate. so, we have seen occasional references. >> host: you are on with joseph campbell, good morning. >> caller: this is tyrell from maryland. why did donald trump lose in 2020? that's what i want to know. i have been wanting to hear the answer to this for a long time.

can you answer that one, please? >> sure, i will take a stab at that. trump lost because of covid and his administration did not handle that as well as they may have according to some people. that was a tough obstacle for his reelection. up until the covid pandemic hit, it looks like trump was headed to a reelection victory. again, covid hit in early 2020 and late 2019, it was difficult to say without covid he would have won for sure but nonetheless, pretty much a covid election and his failure really to make clear what the policies were going to be to get the country through this. there was evidence towards the campaign that was happening and vaccines on the way and so forth. i think the damage was done by the summer of 2020.

it is interesting of summer of 2020, there were a lot of talk about donald trump losing in a landslide. all those projections and all that anticipation of a landslide victory didn't materialize. and it was a much closer election than people anticipated. the country has not had a landslide election, we have not seen anything and even remotely like that in 40 years. it is doubtful and highly unlikely that we'll see it this year. >> host: let's hear from pat joining us from alaska. hello. republican line. >> caller: hello, the fact that the poll of vp harris tied to

president trump, that's disgrace. that individual kamala harris had to be the least qualified and least popular candidate in century. that being said, i have a direct question for john campbell. a lot of people are calling in seeking advice from you but how can we take advice from someone who can't even tie their tie right. >> host: okay, caller, i am going the leave it there, it is petty. >> i think there is a strange chance that kamala harris can win the election, all the polls are signalling that. to really say that's a good measure of public opinion, it is pretty true that there are a lot of people waiting to vote against donald trump. his character and persona and

record of the hyperbole that he indulges that and that turns a lot of people off. there is no doubt and a large number of people are waiting to vote against him. there is a large number waiting to vote for him, too and they are eager to vote for him. it seems like not only from the polls but other indicators, qualitative indicator that this is setting up for a close election. whether it is 50/50, we'll see in nine or 10 days. it is not a given. it is going to be a clear victory for one candidate. >> host: when the vice president presents us the race, you saw a strong polling ahead of donald trump and that goes down to what we are seeing today, is that a phenomenon? >> the democrat nominee, joe biden was stepped aside or

pushed aside or whatever, he's no longer the candidate and july, we had somebody who was brought in as a nominee. that's very unusual in those circumstances was quite unusual. it is not unheard of, navorroing of polls as the election date nears. in 1976, jimmy carter had this hugely 20 plus percentage point after gerald ford. of course, this was after the watergate scandal. he had a huge lead and that lead progressively narrows down to nothing. the final poll estimated that gerald ford had a narrow 1% point lead. it turns out carter won by two-points but it is emblemmatic how it can take place closer.

>> host: from thomas in florida for joseph campbell. >> caller: hi there, thank you very much for getting me on your line here. an interesting viewpoint. your viewers may be very interested in is a lot of people, most governmental officials and like the police, mostly, i realized - that's mostly what officials are running for offices are looking at also is don't rock the boat, keep things slow the way they are going. they don't realize that this idea of mankind of robots. >> host: we'll leave it there. when it comes to the size of polls, you talked a little bit about it where people responding to texts primarily and maybe not

picking up their cell phones. >> certainly not their land line. >> host: for a pollster, that's maddening how you gather data. >> it is, it is time consuming and pollsters, i am not a pollster myself but pollsters do have a lot of impediments that they face in order to get a decent size sample and they have to adjust their sample to reflect demographic profile of the country or the sample they are trying to hit the tap. along the way, there are all sorts of errors that creep into the system. just the mere fact that you are sampling a large population, the margin of errors or margin of sampling of errors, the description of the polls in the public of the press.

there are other ways which errors can creep into polls, the question order or the question wording itself can be another way which contaminants can infiltrate polls, non response. if you are not reaching the people that you want to reach or enough of them is another difficult problem. that seems to have been and nobody knows for sure but that seems to be a major problem in 2020. pollsters were not able to reach enough trump supporters to make their sample pretty accurate. on top of all that, all these sources of potential error, there is the effort to try to weed out voters who are not likely to vote. you got to make sure they are going to vote to the extent you can. they're called prescreening, you screen out likely or non likely voters. you don't want your sample to have a lot of people who are not going to be voted, you want your

sample to be good in terms of likelihood of voters. so, that's a whole another layer of difficulty that's opposed on election pollsters. it is another potential error of errors. polling is a fragile undertaken and it is uncertain. it has a checker history as we have discussed. >> host: polling companies, how do they choose a pool of those they hold? >> different ways they can make that selection, some organizations have gone to what are called panels. the best panels are probablity based. they are participants in the panels and these are large numbers who agree to take polls on a periodic basis. they are selected in a number of

different ways. one way is to ask them in advance by mail whether they would be incline to participate in a poll or a panel or not. if so, these are the steps to take. online text messages is another way which is being invited to join a panel. panel is becoming big among pollsters. we have a large number of people and some panels are in the thousands, participants would go back to that periodically for their views on that. that seems to be one technique. you are right, calling up people in a random - the goal standard used to be random digit-dialling phone calls placed by live operators. everybody in the country had a phone and land line so we can get a good sample and reach

about anybody hypothetically by the phone. this approach and methodology became really popular the '70s and continued into the '90s. people don't pick up their phones and disregard marketing calls or spam or whatever. it is very difficult for people and pollsters to use the phone to reach a large number of people. it takes many, many calls to complete one survey. it is really becoming less and less favor. it is not to say gone out completely but it is not as common as it once was. >> host: you said you were not a pollster yourself but how did you get interested in the subject? >> the 2015 election. the aftermath, it was the day after the 2016 election when i sat down to write a blog post about how the news media,

aftermath, the 1948 election, aftermath making that comparison. at the time i was looking for another book project to take on, so that blog postwritten in the early hours after the election of donald trump in 2016 was the spring board for a larger process. the more i look into it, this topic, i realized there were a lot of cases in which polls had failed in presidential election, failed to signal the outcome and fail to give an accurate understanding of what the election was turning out to be. the more i looked at it, there was a rich variety that had not been examined for. it was a rich topic and fascinating topic and one that had not been taken on. those were great ingredients for a non-fiction book.

>> host: "lost in a gallup," let's hear from bill in illinois from our republican line. >> caller: good morning, thanks for having me on. i want to ask the professor, actually, two parter. he had mentioned a number of negative pollings and cost. i am wondering if he can talk about any values to society of these polls? secondly, question about what the total industry is, what's the dollar value of this polling industry? thank you. >> thank you, bill. i will take the second question first. the polling industry, election polling is very small slice of a much larger, multi-billion

dollar industry. these are polls being done all the time on a variety of topics, none of this is necessary related to elections or politics. consumer interests and consumer tastes and large manufactures or companies wanting to know what their customers are preferring. these are all very important elements of public opinion research industry if you will. it is a multi-billion dollar. pretty large. andit is pretty large. even if election polls were somehow discarded and people did not do them anymore, there would still be this huge industry of opinion research. the first question was the value to society of opinion polls, it is pretty clear that people want to know, there is the surge to want to know what is going to happen in advance.

polls speak to that human instinct in some ways. polling has a long pedigree in this country. going back almost 200 years, there is evidence, newspaper reports about straw polls being done in north carolina and pennsylvania in advance of that year's presidential election between andrew jackson and john quincy adams. election polls have this deep root in the united states and it is reflective of the interest in wanting to know what is going to happen, how things will turn out. it is a basic human instinct. the mission of election polls essentially is that they try to offer an accurate picture of the state of the race, what is likely to happen. many posters say we do not predict outcomes. we are just getting estimates. maybe they should write the prediction value of polls more broadly. nonetheless, there is a

reluctance among how many posters say we are predicting versus offering estimates. if they are offering estimates, many posters still pat themselves on the back when they get it right and they come close. there are posters who claim to be the best active poster in the last five elections. there is this degree of self-congratulation when they get it right or get close to getting it right. it is prediction but they do not like to say this much. host: what you said struck me. the polls in recent days are showing a close race. ultimately, some think the former president will pull ahead. guest: an op-ed appeared in the new york times. do not trust my gut or anybody's.

it is one of those instinct that might not be correct. he emphasizes the numbers. he is not a pollster himself but he does use polling data for his model and it shows consistently that it could be a close race. host: i think your colleagues uses 13 keys as far as the determining factors. guest: he has protected that kamala harris will win the election. this is not a poll. analysis of various trends in the country today. this goes back many years they have used these keys to try to predict the election. host: let's hear from tim in north carolina on the independent line for joseph campbell. caller: thank you for having me. i just wanted to say as an architect and engineer who has a

duty to protect public safety and health, i am right here in raleigh, north carolina and i ask this question to your guest, who comes from my neck of the woods and apparently studied mass communication at unc in 1997. that is right down the road. my question is what do you think people are going to want to have happen in this election when their main priority is an economy according to your poll when in fact, climate change which is down on the list of what is important to people, is actually being driven by the economy and it is on track to

destroy the economy for the american people and the rest of the world within a decade, experts can expect. you say that people want to know the truth ahead of time, but why is it and with all of your mass communication experience that the public does not connect the dots that the economy has to grow. growth requires material throughput. host: we got your point. thank you. guest: it is very interesting what would be voters are telling posters of the issues most important to them. it is true as the caller was saying. the economy or inflation is the number one issue but the second issue is the southern border and keeping the border closed for managing immigration policies.

that is a major issue. reproductive rights is a major issue too. it is interesting that the international focus is not really a major focus in this year's election campaign among voters. the economy, perhaps it is not so surprising that this will be the dominant issue on voters minds when they go to the polls. many of them have already voted. how this translates is, it is difficult to say. most presidential elections become referenda on the incumbent administration. even though joe biden is not top of the ticket, vice president kamala harris is. whether this election becomes a referendum on her performance as part of the biden administration

or whether this becomes a referendum on donald trump's four years in office which is not that long ago, it remains to be seen. it is an interesting component of this race. the polls do not capture that very well. the final days of the campaign -- host: we have seen the final days of the campaign, harris and liz cheney. to what degree do they have the ability to sway public opinion on the decision factor of who someone will support? guest: i have my doubts as to whether celebrities are all that decisive in terms of how people will vote. it is interesting and there might be a marginal different that these celebrities make. i do not think overall that they are a major factor just as i do not think newspaper endorsements are a major factor in

presidential elections. this goes way back to the 19th century. some of the research i have done previously suggests that newspaper endorsements do not really indicate very well how people will poll. host: what was your reaction to the post's decision? guest: not to endorse is what they did along with the los angeles times. i do not think these endorsements are important. i do not think the matter that much. i do not think people are waiting breathlessly for whether the post will endorse candidate x or y. if they want to, it is their newspaper. i don't think they should expect it will have a lot of impact on voters mind and then making the decision whether to vote or not. motor behavior depends -- voter behavior depends on different variables, many include how you were brought up, republican

households, what your views are, the economy, the southern border. there is a lot that goes into a voter's decision to whether they will vote and how. newspaper endorsements and celebrity endorsements are way down the list. host: both go to anthony on the democrats line from new york state. caller: thank you. all due respect to your guest but we all know that polls can be used as tools to skewed public opinion. the amount of money that you see funneled through these organizations create a -- they are manufacturing consent. the main reason that i called was you stated that donald trump lost the presidency because of this miraculous covid outbreak that we had to go through. of course, he had been slated to be reelected.

congress and senate exempted themselves from the mandates. their staffers were not required to take the job. i had been an essential worker and i lost my job because i would not allow myself to be injected with some concoction and booster shot after booster shot, vaccine passports and mask mandates which we all know that dr. fauci lied. andy cuomo made tons of money and a lot of people died from a lot of -- from something manufactured in wuhan. host: what would you like our guest to address? caller: how can we live in a society where we can trust leadership when they have been

exposed to these frauds? donald trump was never in public office ever before. guest: the point i was trying to make was how donald trump managed the covid outbreak. this was the worst epidemic in 100 years. he also gave reassurances that covid would be over soon and it was not. this is them to issue that undercut his presidential term and gave an opening for his opponents to attack him on that. that is where the election pivots in 2020. the caller made a reference to skewing public opinion. whether election polls have the effect of influencing people whether to vote or not, that is an intriguing question. there is some evidence, i am not

finding this evidence to be persuasive but it is out there that if a candidate seems to be way behind in the polls, there is a tendency for supporters of that candidate not to show up and vote and why bother. i don't know. i don't know if it is all that persuasive, that evidence. but it is out there. public opinion polling can have an effect on elections may be, if marginally. i keep going back to the 1960 election. the governor of new york was supposed to win by such an easy outcome that i believe a number of republican voters decided not to vote. why bother? why go to the polls because it is already preordained that he was going to win. it was a shattering upset and truman was the unexpected winner.

host: in oregon, calvin on the independent line. caller: still waiting. host: you are on. go ahead. caller: thank you very much for this show and dr. campbell, i have two questions for you. first, a complement. i live in a neighborhood of teachers and i got a call from three other teachers and their question was how can they access your book. will it be sold at barnes & noble or willoughby on amazon -- or will it be on amazon? that is their question. here is my question. is polling an art or a science? guest: that is a bit of -- that is an excellent question. it is a bit of both. there is sampling that goes into polling. everyone who goes into polling has an hypothetically equal

chance as a pollster goes about the work that they are doing. it is art in the sense that posters have to make some judgments -- pollsters have to make some judgments about who is likely to vote or not. the likely voter screens that many pollsters apply to their data to weed out voters who are likely not to vote. you do not want your election polling sample to have a lot of people who are not going to vote. it is not very effective and self-defeating. there is where they are comes in, to make that interpretation and say, this person will not be a voter and this person might be. depending on how tight and narrow those screens are can make a big difference. that is objective judgment in any respect. it is an informed judgment. they are not doing this willy-nilly. it is more art than science.

they have recognized this for many years as long as pollsters has been applying these likely voter screens to their data. it is how it is. it is an unusual element, a different element from regular opinion polling in terms of do you prefer product x over y. you do have voters versus milwaukee voters -- non-likely voters. host: our guest is joseph campbell. he is author of the book "lost in a gallup". guest: the caller wanted to know how to find the book. amazon.com. university of california press is another. host: thank you. coming up we will talk with seth kaplan. he is the author of "fragile neighborhoods: repairing american society, one zip code at a time." before that, open forum.

to participate, (202) 748-8001 republicans. (202) 748-8000 immigrants. independent, (202) 748-8002. we will take those calls when we continue. >> this book titled "reagan," it is not the first definitive biography of the president. the official biographer appeared to be so flummoxed by the compact cities of reagan's character that he produced a memoir of ronald reagan that was widely criticized in spite of its acute insights. he also points out in his introduction, i am fortunate that ronald reagan's story can now be told as never before

because we possess far more archival sources and former historical perspective. announcer: author max boot with isode of booknotes plus with the host brian lamb. it is now available on the free mobile ar erever you get your podcast. >> with one of the tightest races for control of congress in modern political history, stay ahead with c-span's comprehensive coverage of key state debate. this fall c-span brings you access to the nation's top house, senate and governor debates across the country. debates from races that are shaping your state future and the balance of power in washington. follow our campaign 2024 coverage from local to national debate anytime online at c-span.org/campaigns. be sure to watch tuesday, november 5 for live election night results.

c-span, your unfiltered view of politics, powered by cable. announcer: "washington journal" continues. host: this is open forum. to participate, call us (202) 748-8001 republicans. (202) 748-8000, democrats. independent, (202) 748-8002. make your thoughts via text at (202) 748-8003. you can post on our social media site, facebook.com/c-span and on x. wall street journal reports that when election day comes, democrats are readying their team of lawyers for the final days of the race. viewers saying four years ago joe biden hired hundreds of lawyers to work on his campaign which took an unusual detour to

the courts when donald trump and his allies brought dozens of lawsuits nicking unsupported claims of election fraud. bracing for a flurry of lawsuits, kamala harris's campaign has expanded the democratic legal campaign spending the better part of the year trying to anticipate any curveball that could arrive in the crucial days before and after the polls, "making sure we have assistance to monitor what republicans are doing everywhere." a former biden white house counsel is leading the legal operation. "as soon as they file a case and say election results cannot be trusted, we are prepared to respond." that is what to expect in these final days with nine days to go until election day. stay close to c-span for events from both of the candidates as they travel the battleground states to make their case. the vice president traveling to philadelphia today and also to michigan.

the former president rallying in madison square garden today. david is up first from texas, independent line. caller: hi. i wanted to find out with the new development, that he worked briefly illegally during the year 1990. my question at looking at what is going on in pennsylvania, how will it impact his current immigration status? right now he is a u.s. citizen. cannot be taken away from him? host: ellen in philadelphia. caller: hi. this is jackie. bear with me. i have a song that is very short

and i want my grandchildren to hear it. host: go ahead. caller: ok. [singing] make america great again. say merry christmas. say hallelujah. make america great again. it is donald trump for the usa. thank you, pedro. host: let's go to john in south dakota on the democrats line. good morning. caller: thank you. i want to put some information on their especially for some of the trump voters. paul manafort, trump's campaign manager received over $66 million from russia. on january 6 he did nothing for three hours hoping for an overthrow. the power -- taliban

terrorist who killed soldiers was released, that was donald trump. donald trump's son-in-law got to billion dollars from saudi arabia. his treasurer got $1 million from saudi arabia. all of the stuff can be checked on google. trump cut staff in china by two thirds, a team of scientists working to stop the pandemic outbreak. host: how is that significant to this year's campaign? caller: because people knew that the outbreak occurred and millions of people died because of donald trump and the republicans. they cut two thirds of the staff in china with the pandemic. also, voting rights, world peace, ukraine, the climate situation, social security, public education, they are on the line. we are also talking up.

rich republicans tricked older religious people into attacking the supreme court with climate-denying corporate billionaire puppets. the market crashed under donald trump terribly and it will again if he gets into power. that is what putin wants. after all, trump got a $6 million loan backed by putin through deutsche bank. host: david in kentucky, republican line. caller: good morning. your caller you had on about the polling stuff, i think the polling would be more honest if we had honest journalists and an honest media because the media is about maybe 80% democrat including your network. if you had honest polling, you would probably get a better outcome than with all of the gas lighting. here is kamala harris attacking donald trump. you are always saying here is donald trump attacking kamala

harris. if you take polling honestly, it depends on where you are doing the polling. if you have orange county as a republican versus l.a. county which is more democrat. orange county, you will get more donald trump than l.a. county. people should just go to a mall somewhere and sit down at a table and have all the people in the mall comeup and say who their favorite is. more people who shop at macy's is kamala than people who shop at walmart for trump. it depends where you are doing the polling. in kentucky, you will get more republicans. doing the polling in new york city, philadelphia, chicago, you will get more people for harris. host: ok. jorge in new mexico, independent line. caller: good morning.

thank you for c-span. this is open forum. i have been working on a program. i went down to chihuahua and i was looking at the cathedrals because the mayans and aztecs and the spanish worked on them. i had a quick little thing i wanted to read. to provide good homes to manchester good neighbors, bordertowns, cousins, u.s. and mexico are neighbors separated by fences and walls but the new bricks will strengthen our international communities by being dreamer-led and designed by the divine tiny little gems combined under pressure from above or below where diamonds are formed. i'm hoping to assign it to

different organizations like habitat for humanity and catholic charities. thank you. host: chris in alabama, democrats line. you are next. caller: good. host: you are on. caller: ok. host: chris, go ahead. caller: he does not seem to be able to hear me, but that is ok. democrat. am i on the independent line? host: you are on the democratic line. are you a democrat? caller: that's fine. host: are you a democrat? let's establish that. caller: yes. host: you on the air. go ahead with your statement. caller: i would like to make a question to people who have said many things, i will call them outlandish. my question to them and to the

world, how can you say things that donald trump has brought in when you have not searched in yourself. be it college, i have been to the military. i would not walk, talk or to come unless my commander-in-chief knew what i was doing or where the information came. i have never voted republican and i will not vote republican. donald trump will cost us this country if we do not vote in kamala harris. host: let's hear from kent in illinois, republican line. caller: your last caller. since trump started in 2016, he has been called hitler's, he would destroy the economy, he

would destroy the world. there would be a nuclear war according to hillary clinton. these were all lies. they keep repeating them for nine years and then they are somewhat dismayed that people who are rational do not believe them. i have 45 more seconds. before women's suffrage, one of the main reasons women were not allowed to vote was that ben franklin, thomas edison, a lot of worry wiseman -- very wise men felt that they lacked pragmatism, that they could not look at a situation and judge the facts. a great deal of those women still exist. we call them democrats. this year the election is going to be very simple, based on two groups of people. the people who hate trump and

the people who love trump. host: before you go too far, are you making the argument that women should not vote? caller: no. i'm saying the reason they were not allowed to vote in the past. surely, they are allowed to vote today. she voted for 54 years. she is way more intelligent for the -- than the average man. host: i was wanting to clarify that point. mary on the line. hello. caller: good morning. i wanted to talk about the poster -- pollster who was on. i guess i am a disgruntled democrat. i did not vote for hillary clinton. but i will be voting for kamala harris this year. i just cannot stand trump. he is a little bit too much for me. that is my comment. host: as far as policy, is the

only factor of you voting for kamala harris that of the former president or is there anything specific about the vice president's policies that attract you? caller: for me, it comes down to the abortion issue and women's rights. i saw the ad here where it says women over 50 should not care about abortion. but i have daughters and granddaughters. that is a position that i really hold dear. i know people who think that we are baby killers, if you cannot feed your kids, then you are going to kill them. you have to do what you have to do. it is an economic issue for a lot of us. host: mary in ohio. let's hear from ed in florida on

the independent line. you will have to turn down your television. caller: ok. host: go ahead, you are on. caller: we need to have a question for yourself. what kind of person you are, your society, your country, your state, your city. she has been cleaning out convicts. what kind of person we are that we -- thank you. host: lewis from tampa, florida. republican line. caller: good morning. good morning, america. i just survived this hurricane. . i am grateful to god that i got through it.

we are praying for the people in north carolina and all over the world that are going through a hard time. i think trump is the leader we need. we need to end these wars. we cannot have china walking all over us. they took over the airbase as soon as we left afghanistan. their hands are dirty. their hands are very dirty, the chinese. one thing before i go, the l.a. times and the washington post do not want to endorse. they want to be on the wrong side of the fence. i think trump is the choice and we need to elect him because kamala cannot stand up to these world leaders. we need a strong leader. thank you. host: china was one of the

topics that came up with president biden before departing from wilmington, delaware for pennsylvania for campaign issues. the topic of china. it started with questions about israel's strike against iran. here is some of that exchange. [video clip] >> what you think about elon musk being here illegally? >> what would you say to the men who supported you but are not supporting harris? >> they are making a mistake in my humble opinion. we are a little late. it looks like they did not hit anything other than a military target. >> mr. president, will there be repercussions for beijing? >> i have to find out more about that when i get back as to what they did and how much they hacked. >> when you find out, will there

be repercussions? >> we will have to talk about it. >> mr. president, did you get a heads up? >> yes. >> how worried are you that orange -- former president trump -- >> [indiscernible] >> you are not concerned at all? >> yes. but i am not surprised. >> [indiscernible] >> trump has no class at all.

zero, none. if it were not for this campaign, how would we characterize that man in terms of his manners? >> with north korea and russia, what kind of action? >> it depends on what they do. thank you so very much. host: again, back-and-forth with reporters on the tarmac with president biden. you can participate in this open forum. (202) 748-8001 republicans. (202) 748-8000, democrats. independents, (202) 748-8002. make thoughts via text and social media too. warner in maryland on the democrats line. good morning. caller: good morning. how are you?

i have one great issue across the board. when the insurrection occurred and a lot of people were invading the white house, they were not going to ask the question are you republican or democrat. they had intentions to stop the vote. i am sick and tired of political parties holding the united states hostage because they are voting of one man's mind what should be done for the american people and not for themselves. host: that is warner in baltimore where the candidates are today with these nine days until election day, this is politico geltzer roundup. -- politico's roundup.

former president trump. the vice president attending a church service will be heading back to washington. she is excited land around 7:30. governor walz will be in las vegas for a reproductive rights bookstore talk in delivering remarks for a native american event. livestreaming on twitch with representative alexandria ocasio-cortez this afternoon. harris-walz get out the vote event. katie vance doing multiple events today on cnn's state of the union. we saw a little bit from that earlier today. he will also be on cbs's face the nation and one of the featured speakers at president trump's rally later this afternoon.

marlena in kentucky, republican line. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, hello -- caller: hello? host: you are on, go ahead. caller: i would like to talk about israel and how the united states not giving them the weapons to win this. after all, they are our allies. we should be behind them 100%. this administration has proven they don't even like israel. there ought to be something done about that. i hope donald trump gets in so we can have some decency in this world. host: anna is up next from texas. independent line. caller: i hope you don't cut me off because you tend to cut off people who are conservative. i have a question for you. did you see the holocaust survivor ad that was put up with the men who survived the holocaust talking about how

kamala harris insulted every single jewish person for calling donald trump hitler. kamala harris continue to call him a fascist after there have been two attempt on his life. how can anybody support that behavior? what i see are people who are desperate because they know they are losing. they see all the momentum going in the trump direction. it is crazy the stuff they are saying and the link that they will go because when you are so desperate, you have nowhere else to go. the average person in the united states, they are just sick of the madness. they are sick and tired of chopping up children's body parts and giving them life altering hormones and calling it gender affirming care. gender affirming care when you maim a child for the rest of their life and behind their

parents back and not allowing their parents to have a say-so about it. reproductive rights is just another word for tilting children -- killing children. host: let's hear from new york. this is daniel in saratoga springs. democrats line. caller: good morning. i just want to say i think that donald trump, if he gets in, we have a real concern about the future of ukraine and taiwan and israel. trump made a statement when he was president. he said, we will let them do what they want, addressing that with prudent. he is so tight with putin and putin and china are out to get us in terms of our place in the world. voters better think carefully about our international status

and our international security with these kind of statements coming from trump. also trump said something about tariffs. i heard recently saying that economists are saying that the tariffs are imposed, it will have a devastating effect on our economy. host: daniel in new york. this is open forum for 10 more minutes. if you like to participate, (202) 748-8000. ray on the republican line in kentucky. good morning. caller: it is amazing how the democrats are insulting everyone. did you hear what ms. obama said in the rally yesterday about

women? to not do anything or discussed it with their husbands, to just do it behind their backs? that was absolutely shocking to tell some wives to go behind their husbands backs without discussing or letting them have any input in what the family is going to do and how they will vote. it was just amazing. those people are a bunch of horrifics. it is awful the way they continue to divide our country and devide man and wife. they don't care. children, mothers and fathers. they are such dividers. it is shocking that people don't point this out more. host: clem in new york on the independent line. good morning. caller: good morning.

your callers should know, i was listening to the same speech and the same that ms. obama was saying. do you see how intelligently he turned that around to make it look like what she was saying was to talk about against her husband. she never said that. voting is your own portal right -- personal right. that does not mean you are supposed to go against her husband or go behind him and not listen to what he says. it is showing that you still have a right to vote. voting is an individual right. you can both sleep in the same house and your individual right, you can still keep your individual rights. i am from new york and i am used to donald trump. maybe the rest of america is not used to donald trump.

this guy has no integrity whatsoever. you need an example. you are the leader of the free world. who needs somebody who talks. you do not know if he is joking, if he is serious or if he will do what he is going to do. you need to clearly know what your leader is going to do. host: let's hear from brenda in michigan on the democrats line. caller: good morning. i enjoy your show very much. i don't understand why people do not see that trump is not for anyone except himself. he cannot even complete a sentence. he is not good for the united states at all. he does not respect women. he does not even respect himself. i just don't get it. people better wake up and smell the roses. thank you. host: phyllis, republican line.

caller: hi. i just want to say the terms that they use, reproductive rights and abortion, they should be more explicit. what does reproductive mean? it means having children, reproducing. what does rights mean? the right to kill the baby? abortion means to destroy. so abortion means to kill. host: ok. phyllis on this open forum finishing off your calls. those of you who participated, thank you. we will look at the topic of polarization in the united states with a different approach to fix it neighborhood by ighborhood which is what seth kaplan is advocating for. he is the author of "fragile neighborhoods: repairing american society, one zip code at a time." we will hear his thoughts when washington journal continues.

>> tonight on c-span's q&a in her book "the dragon from chicago," the historian talks about the life and career of the bureau chief of the chicago tribune. he provides first-hand accounts of hitler germany and was one of the first reporters to warn america about the dangers of noshes him -- nazism. >> she had one of her interviews with him in 1941. in that interview he made it clear that he did not have to take germany by force. that he was getting more power with every election and that he really thought that he would be in control within a year. he missed that by only a month. he also made it clear that once

he and the nazis were in power, they intended to undo the republic and create the republic of truly dramatic men. >> "the dragon from chicago," tonight on c-span customer q&a. listen to all of our podcasts on the free c-span now app. >> attention middle and high school students across america. it is time to make your voice heard. c-span's studentcam documentary contest 2025 is here, your chance to create a documentary that can inspire change my raise awareness and make an impact. your documentary should answer this year's question, your message to the president. what issue is most important to you or your community.

whether you are passionate about politics, the environment or community stories. studentcam is your platform to share your message with the world. win $100,000 in prizes including a grand prize of $5,000. this is your opportunity not only to make an impact but also be rewarded for your creativity and hard work. enter your submissions today. sc code orit studentcam.org for all the deta how to enter. the deadline is january 20, 2025. >> washington journal continues. host: joining is seth kaplan, the author of the book "fragile neighborhoods: repairing american society, one zip code at a time." seth kaplan, welcome to "washington journal." guest: a pleasure to be here. host: where did you get the concept for this book? guest: my job for the last 15 years has been working in fragile states. that is libya, somalia, nigeria.

around 2015-2016 people asked me unprompted is america becoming a fragile state. this was partly in jest. this is not somalia or nigeria. but there was an anxiety and because i had this experience, that led me to ask what is going on with america. i set off on what you might call a journey into america to understand what was going on in our society and what i could do to help the country. host: the journey took you into neighborhoods. guest: i did not start with neighborhoods. my work has always been about looking at what makes countries work or do not work. i have seen over again that relationships is the key element to focus on. a country with great relationships, the country will

solve problems, it will have stability and growth. countries in which the relationships don't work will have much more conflicts, many more problems. i thought of relationships. i did not think of neighborhoods. i thought maybe there was a problem. everyone talks about the politics. from my experience, politics is downstream from society. i went around reading books, interviewing, traveling to lots of places. i think the big question that i eventually landed on is we have all these problems, polarization with trump, teenage problems, problems with loneliness. i had to ask myself ultimately what had changed. we did not have these problems two generations ago. we have these problems now. what has changed in our relationships. that ultimately led me to focus on neighborhoods because the changes we see are much more

dramatic, the ones down here that we don't talk about. host: let's talk about what has changed. guest: i think you will see two big changes. our neighborhoods are much more class-based. this is not left or right. you go to neighborhoods in america that have concentrated poverty. those neighborhoods literally hold people back. for example, if you look at the app's lifespan in america, there is a -- the average lifespan in america, there is a 40 year gap between the longest lifespan and the shortest lifespan depending on where you live. imagine the place itself is constraining you. that is not a land of opportunity. that is one huge problem. a second problem is we used to talk to lots of people. in my neighborhood, i have friends but i have hundreds of relationships. that was the norm. today we have fewer

relationships around us. we are more isolated, we are more mistrustful, we are more lonely. we have less support around us when we need it. that leads to downstream problems. i think these are two dynamics explaining problems in the country. host: something you wrote in the book, "when citizens are onnected, they lack a sense security and belonging that community brings and end up alienated and more likely seek zero-sum solutions in a way tharizes debate rns authoritarian figures and ideologies to address concerns. in the 2016 election, donald trump garnered the most votes with the lowest level of social connections." can you elaborate? guest: there is evidence going back hundreds of years, fascism and world war ii, one of the

analyses that came out of studying what happened to this country is that there was this growing disconnection and alienation. this led people to affect how they voted. i am not here to tell people how they should vote. i don't think politics is the main focus of our problems. i think the main focus of our problems is if we are disconnected, we do not have someone to turn to when we have needs. we do not feel a purpose in life. if you live in a place with no local institutions, no local relationships, no chance for you to stand up and contribute, you have a lack of agency. you feel like you are disempowered. you feel like you are marginalized. in those cases, you put all of your energy into politics. you put your energy into some big cause because you do not see an alternative. my neighborhood is flourishing.

i can see hundreds of people playing a role whether it is walking around helping people in need or being on the board of a local organization or just showing up when we need to talk about the future. imagine you are in a neighborhood with none of those opportunities. all of you have this technology and your phone. you are likely to say politics is the answer. that is true for a lot of people. that is not a left-right issue. it affects all americans. host: seth kaplan is our guest and he is the author of "fragile neighborhoods: repairing american society, one zip code at a time." asking questions at (202) 748-8001 for republicans. democrats, (202) 748-8000. independent, (202) 748-8002. is there a sign that i live in a fragile neighborhood? guest: there are a few signs. first, what are the relationships between people.

are there local businesses? are there local religious institutions, civic institutions? is there a local school that plays a constructive role? you can think about what types of institutions are there. you can think about the strength of families and family dynamics. when you are alone and isolated, you can be in a well-off neighborhood, have a beautiful house but let's assume you know nobody within five blocks. you do not have a material problem but you might have a relationship problem. that might affect you in subtle ways. cap comparable to where you live in a neighborhood that is dirty, there is pollution, there is no institution. that is a different problem. you can also be poor and have a great community around you and it is like you do not have the problems that rich person has. you have to look at what are the

relationships and what are the institutions, also the physical landscape. is it bringing people together? visit alienating? -- is it alienating? you live in this neighborhood where there is no place to walk, no place to meet people. that does not make it feel good every day. host: when you were investigating, or their specific -- where their specific neighborhoods that serve as examples? guest: i spent a lot of time on data. you can see what are the data points that say this is going to be a flourishing versus a fragile. for example, mute time. -- commute time. income mix, places with poverty will have more problems than places with mixed income. family structure matters. number of local institutions matter.

i looked at that and i said these are the five most important based on what i studied. one was family, one was inter-family. one was local schools, one was the whole community and one was more physical. then i found the five best organizations i could find because i am not here to say this is the problem. i am here to say this is the solution. i work in the-polarization around the world. -- de-polarization around the world. to be practical, i found five great organizations. one in baltimore, one in detroit, one in eastern kentucky. one that is working internationally with lots of partners and one based in atlanta. i brought up those five and i brought all the lessons together. the goal is to be practical and have people ask themselves what

can i do in my neighborhood to make things better. host: of the five organizations, are there common denominators? guest: they are all started by people who obviously feel that relationships matter and social determinants of health matter. there are people who are highly innovative. i think if you look at most social entrepreneurs in america, they are looking at a specific problem. hunger, homelessness, drugs. they are only focused on a problem. they are what i would call problem-driven. the ones i am looking forward are trying to answer the question, how do we improve relationships at scale in a particular place. my question before was what has gone wrong. i am looking for entrepreneurs that are specifically focused on improving relationships at scale. for example, there is an organization in baltimore called thread.

it takes the 25% worst performing ninth graders in hospital and it makes a 10 year 24/7 commitment. most people do not perform good in high school not because -- there is nothing wrong with their head. they do not have a supportive environment. they have thousands of volunteers and they put four volunteers on one ninth grader. 24/7, you call us, you need food, we are here. you need help with homework, we are here. what differentiates success from failure, we underestimate the importance of steady love day in and day out. that is what thread does. it transforms people with that type of support. host: seth kaplan joining us. our first question for you is from anthony from georgia. go ahead. caller: yes sir.

i believe that the hatred and divisiveness in this country started the day that donald trump beat hillary. they never stop hating him for that. nancy pelosi ripped up his state of the union speech in front of the whole worldwith this presid. he was only two weeks president. they will do everything and their power to destroy him. it has not stopped. it continues today. i believe that is when the divisiveness and hatred really started. host: anthony in georgia. guest: if you look at the data, i think you will see many social problems, they start in the late 1960's. the data says the best year for american social health was 1964, right out of robert putnam, the

most famous person who studied this data. we have had incremental decline for 60 years. for me, when you hate people or have mistrust of people, that is something you are learning in your daily life. i think our choices in politics -- our reaction to politics -- our obsessive nature with politics is because other avenues for us to contribute, to enjoy life, to play a role in the stage that is our lives have declined. politics has become more important, therefore politics become more zero-sum. i would say that if you look at the health, our relationships and how much we dig with each other in specific places, it is 60 years of decline. i'm not saying i have a formula

to change that but if we put our finger on the problem and begin to see what people are doing that can make a difference we can learn how to restore the social fabric. without a stronger social fabric i don't think we can deal with the divisive nature of our politics. host: utah, bob, democrats line. caller: good morning. i would say technology has changed everything. the younger people communicate strictly on the phone or the internet. everything has changed. it's not just politics. it is the technology and how we are communicating with each other. i don't think it affects the older people that much. it's the younger generation with their phones in their hand all day long. they take abuse and give abuse. they communicate totally different.

host: bob there in utah. guest: you are completely correct in technology describes many changes. i would say we cannot look at the phones as the start of the process. i would say the cars, air conditioning, entertainment on tv, that is a process that began in in the 1960's. the phones are an accelerator of a long process of change technology has affected our society. i think the phones make things worse but i don't think -- they are part of a long arc. if you are -- there is plenty of data on this. you can look at jonathan height's work. if you look at places with strong social fabrics, strong communities, they are the least affected by the phones. the people and the places most

affected by the phones are those places and people that are the least invested in a strong social fabric. phones are devastating to the kids. strong social fabric, that society is very resistant to the threats smartphones and social media pose. host: if you have a strong neighborhood how much more tolerance would happen between two neighbors who have opposite views? guest: what i find interesting is my neighborhood is roughly 50-50. i don't have a poll. i have signs for both presidential candidates, both people running for senate in maryland. we have an incredibly thick social fabric. we have some any local institutions. i know hundreds of neighbors. i'm amazed -- a dentist come

by person that is retired. i am at 910. the woman at 903 looks at people who are staying alone. there's an organized activity to clean up the park. her name is at the bottom. there's a volunteer for some nonprofit, she's the one doing it. the dentist a couple of houses for me organizes a fundraiser. it's amazing the things people do. there politics are all very different actually -- their politics are all very different actually. imagine none of us knew each other. all we had was the politics. i think we would be more mistrustful. politics would drive us further apart. some of us would leave because we can't stand being on the same block with someone with different politics. you see that happening in america.

that would never happen in my neighborhood. our relationships are common ideal entity -- identity is stronger than politics. that is one of the solutions we need. host: is it because you avoid talking about politics because of this -- the conflict it causes or you have trusted each other and you can talk about it even though you may disagree? guest: i posted on linkedin a few weeks ago my philosophy on yard signs. i set a very intentional. people know me. clear intentional. -- very intentional. i don't have a yard sign or a bumper sticker. some people their identity is how they promote what they believe in. i don't even have something about where my kids go to school. i just want us to have no barriers between us. i'm very intentional. i have spent 15, 20 years working on trying to reduce polarization. i literally try to end wars or reduce the risk of worse.

i know it -- wars. i know what it means to be overpoliticized. they have signs for different candidates. conversation in my neighborhood is not about politics. it might be sometimes. there are people that will bring it up. what we share with each other is 90% or more not politics. politics does not define us. it does not get talked about a lot. sometimes our disagreements but it's much less than it is in many parts of america today. host: jeremy from michigan on the line for republicans for "fragile neighborhoods: repairing american society, one zip code at a time." --for seth kaplan. caller: thank you for taking my call and answering my question. i feel my relationship with jesus christ helps me to have a good sense of community. since the 1960's, we have been kicking god out of every institution. does that play a part of what's going on here?

thank you very much and have a great day. guest: there are many factors but i think the data will definitely say that -- it is not equally for all types of christianity. the types of religion that are more communal, those are the places that are most resistant to phones. social itemization. we have to be careful. it's also true that some people of faith are bringing politics into the church or bringing politics into the synagogue or into the mosque. i don't think that's helpful. i'm very happy. i go to a synagogue, a house of worship. i'm so happy we are very intentional about not bringing politics inside the walls. the person who leads my synagogue is very active about go out and vote, it's good for the country and supporting the country, whoever wins, being

positive but not bringing politics. the answer is yes, but. if you're in a religious community and people are supporting each other because of faith, that could be a really constructive counterforce. there's also the risk that some people use religion in a negative way or you might be at a house of worship that's not very communal. those would be a warning for faith but a faith community that brings people together and not around politics or beliefs -- around each other, that is a great anecdote -- antidote to some of the problems we have. they accept people across the political spectrum. it needs to be much more intentional than it is today. host: carlos in virginia, independent line. caller: good morning and thank you for taking my call. i agree with the gentleman.

the destruction of the fabric of society which is the family started in the 1960's with the freedom philosophy. there is no respect towards god, to the 10 commandments. these days what we see is the equalization because of the socialist permit happening in society, like the gender doctrine. that is destroying the family, destroying the kids. it is sad. in my neighborhood i see signs for both parties. they are nice people and everything but when i see the children growing -- the girls have their hair cut to look like boys. it is so sad.

if we stay quiet and don't say anything, i mean the children are victims of all the politics that are pushing family from the democratic party. host: thanks. guest: i would just say a lot of things are much better in america than it was 60 years ago. 60 years ago, we had a lot more racial inequality. racial discrimination. women had fewer opportunities. we were not as wealthy. think about how many more people -- we have air conditioning. we have plumbing. we have bigger, nicer homes. we traveled more. so many things about our lives materially have improved. those are great accomplishments. i think we don't want to lose any of that. we need to look forward. we need to find solutions that

will keep these gains but also find ways to restore relationships. something about how we have evolved. i think we could have evolved had those gains and not so itemized in society and isolated from each other. we built beautiful highways. we don't build beautiful neighborhoods. we live in a place yet we rarely find government or any clinical party or even any nonprofit have a strategy how to create great neighborhoods. they are mostly focused on silos. they are focused on big, big issues. they are designed. i travel to a lot of countries. i have never seen a country so designed to isolate ourselves than this country. that is physical. that is institutional. that is cultural. these are things we don't have to have and we can still have those gains. my argument is how to create a

society where we nourish and nurture and relationships and strong neighborhoods where everyone can flourish and no one is left behind? i do think we can do that without a place-based strategy for every neighborhood. it is not just about the silos with the politics. it is how we be intentional about something we have not been intentional about before. host: the vice president is promoting affordable housing. could that change the nature of how a neighborhood is designed? could that help facilitate a better understanding within the neighborhood itself? guest: i do think density to some extent helps. my neighborhood is not terribly dense. you don't actually need it but people are spread out. if you think about my two problems, place-based inequality and disconnection, you have lots of cities across america in

which you have lots of neighborhoods that people are abandoning. you have a city like atlanta. atlanta has gained 75,000 people over the last 15 years, yet half the city has gained 125,000 and half the city has lost 50,000 because those are neighborhoods no one wants to live in. we need more housing. at lower costs. we have to think of those places that are being left behind. what would encourage more development in those places? that could be zoning changes, investments from government. yes, we need more housing. the question is, do we need more of it? more of it of a particular type in some neighborhoods so that neighborhoods would flourish? we need to be intentional about the where and the how as much about the what. the what is nice but you need a larger picture before i would agree with that strategy.

host: you cited the immigrant community. why does that stand out? guest: you can be poor and have a strong social fabric. you go to the amish. they are not terribly wealthy or immigrants but they have an incredible social fabric. immigrant communities tend to have a strong social fabric, at least for the first two generations. then they tend to assimilate, integrate and the fabric is not the same. immigrant communities come together. they have the same experience. it could be from southeast asia, africa, the middle east. they are very close knit. they build their own institutions. they tend to live near each other. they support each other and therefore they tend to lift each other up. there are plenty of studies that will show if you look at two communities that are equally poor, the one with the stronger social fabric is more resilient, more able to deal with a heat wave or a hurricane. they are also more likely to

lift themselves up because of that social fabric. the immigrant communities are a great example of that. we could find some of thomas well. host: eric in new york, democrats line. caller: good morning. about the community and what is the neighborhood, the tribe, the religion, it cuts both ways. neighborhoods are the area around you. the people you meet. right up your alley, i have for nine years, when i find people alone i walk up to them. i don't captivate them. it takes the tribe and one on one. can i ask for your opinion? this ties into the previous guest's holding. -- polling. i haven't taken a personal pole.

most people are nice. they would answer the question. my second question is, what do you think most people told me when i thought most people were nice? i have thousands of people over a nine year period. 85% looked me straight in the eye, the body affirming quality people have that is disconnected when we go through social media. in the privacy of one-on-one, if you walk up to someone and stick your neck out a little bit and say something as inane seeming as excuse me, do you think most people are nice, they will look you square in the eye and say i have been thinking about that. host: ok. we get the point. guest: i complement you for being intentional about relationships. when i say neighborhoods, we need a lot more of that in neighborhoods.

the difference between neighborhoods and walking up the people in the street, which i complement you for what you are doing, in a neighborhood it is something that will sustain itself over time. just imagine he went out your door -- today is a sunday. he looked around. there are 6, 8 doors near you. how many of those people do you know? what would happen if you walked up to the doors and said hello. -- hello? what if you say we can do a block party? some social gathering, whatever it might be. maybe there is some local organization that could be religious, social, civic for kids. what happens if you volunteered and showed up regularly? how would that change the social fabric in your neighborhood? how would that change your neighborhood itself? what happens if people know each other more? where i live i feel like i have a security blanket behind me because i walked down the street and i know who's behind those doors.

i have a sense of joy because i know what's going on. i'm on my whatsapp group for my neighborhood. there's something happening monday night, wednesday night, sunday night. it never ends. there's always something happening. we had a neighbor as a gift to our community in september. three backyards. someone had graduated from a nearby high school, a somewhat well-known singer, and we had a concert of 300 people, maybe 100 kids for the neighborhood. wow. that was the best event over. great to be intentional. get used -- what used to be organic, now we need to be intentional. if you do it in your physical place and you do it periodically as a way to know each other, it creates a social fabric that is not there now. host: the book is called

"fragile neighborhoods: repairing american society, one zip code at a time." joining us --seth kaplan joining us for the conversation. caller: mr. kaplan, i don't agree with you. i'm 67. i was in the marine corps. i traveled a lot around the world. things are changing here. the problem i see -- the two things you left out -- again, i don't disagree with you. the immigrants we have allowed in here in the last four years -- listen. not all of them are bad. whatever the case. we are going to have a huge -- we have not even seen the problems with this immigration stuff. then we have to talk about the drugs. we have an entire young population that is going to have to deal with a lot of problems.

i would like to know what you think about that. host: jeff in nebraska. guest: i want to thank you for your service. it's always important when we find people who served the country to thank them. i really appreciate that. i would say when you look at the drug problem, you can think of supply and demand. i would say there is a huge issue of supply. there are drugs that are easier to get, cheaper. it is like a flood. that is a separate issue. in terms of the demand-side, if people are more embedded with relationships, more embedded in community, and you can see this and read some of the best books. i can give you some titles about the promise of the deterioration of large parts of our society from drugs. i think with the lesson you learned over and over again is a weakened social fabric makes

individuals more vulnerable to the demand. wanting drugs. they feel less good about themselves. they feel less good about their future, less good about the country. drugs are a way out. i would say the decline of the social fabric is a major contributor to our inability to reduce the awfulness of what drugs do in our country. literally we've had 100,000 people dying annually. i think it was less in the last 12 months but 100,000 for several years in a row. the only way we will reduce that number is by having a stronger social fabric. i think we just need to consider that. even with immigration our country has always had immigrants. we are built on immigrants but the stronger our communities the more able we are to have a positive and not the negative of immigration. our social fabric declining

expense many of our challenges. host: independent line from south carolina, jaden's next. caller: thanks for taking my call. he's real good buddies missing one of the biggest main points. that one is donald trump. we have always had the problems you are talking about. we have been working towards correcting them. it is something you can't correct very quick. after donald trump came in as president with the big microphone, it is not like you talking everyday. the president of the united states talking everyday. calling people names. just belittling people, lying, lying, lying. the democrats failed to call him out at first on the stuff. i think it became normalized. after that became normalized, the whole society got confused

because if you don't condemn something and you let it sit around, they know he's a big threat to democracy. they were scared to say that at first because he was a white guy, whatever. i'm saying the democrats. i'm an independent. all of a sudden it is right up to the election and they are coming out and telling all the truth about him. if they would have did this right from the beginning -- i called into c-span during the george floyd marches. the black people were -- it was stupid of them to come up with a slogan that black lives matter and defund the police. it should have been about democracy. host: you put a lot out there for the guest. guest: thank you. south carolina is a very beautiful state. i have seen great places in south carolina. i would say i always think what we except in our politics is

what we except -- the norms we accept locally. i don't want to speak about any candidate. my experience in countries is all candidates have positives and negatives. when we have changing norms about how we are able to talk politically, that is likely reflecting we don't have the norms of the neighborhood. we have the norms of reality tv. if people are not learning how to treat one another well at home and they are on tv or social media, not all listening to c-span everyday, we have very polite conversations, i would say that they learn to accept that is the way people can speak and it's ok to speak that way. the norms of political behavior expands. what we are used to is the tv, not neighborly relationships. we have gone from neighborly

relationships telling us how to talk to tb telling us how to talk. now -- tv telling us how to talk and now politics tells us how to talk. if we go back to neighborly relationships, they will be better ways of treating each other and that is very important. host: youri social problems politics. addressed through they are worse of your spective who is in office. both struggle to grasp the core issue. those on the right typically preach family and faith. the left typically believes the problems caused by a combination of inequality, structural inequality, racism and a weekly funded support system -- w funded support system. guest: i can agree with part of that. the problems of our relationships, the problems of our places are not problems easily solved by politics. some policy changes would help. we need a lot more than just policy changes.

where government has a role is it can help create enabling conditions for us to have better relationships. if you don't have the local institutions and local -- the fact is, when you build what i call places without place, lots of houses, no center, no school, no commercial corridor, what brings people together? you have your car, your phone, your little island. you are not practicing good relationships. government through zoning, the way designs institutions, the way it spends money has lots of things that can impact our relationships. ultimately, the best they can do is create enabling conditions. they cannot make us treat each other better. host: let's hear from charisse in massachusetts. caller: hi. the reason i'm calling, i

purchased your book on amazon. i'm so fascinated here what you are talking about in regards to housing. i am deeply impacted by the gentrification over the years. i grew up in the 1980's and things were not the same like it was back then. things have gotten extremely expensive around here. the new bike lanes, the new infrastructures, new buildings everywhere. i just can't keep up. i want to know what is your take on the gentrifications not only happening in the boston area but cities across the country. guest: two things. most poor neighborhoods don't gentrified. they get worse. i would say there's a lot of publicity over the relatively

small number of places that do gentrify. if you go to st. louis, many neighborhoods that used to exist no longer exist. the population of detroit is down 62%. st. louis is down 70%. you have a lot of neighborhoods in the country outside of boston, new york, washington and a few of these coastal cities that are doing bad. there is a higher number of people in distressed neighborhoods, a multiple of what it was 50 or so years ago. that is the trend. in terms of gentrifying neighborhoods, this is a situation where policy could make a huge difference. there are a number of very specific policies that government can enact that would allow people to live in a place that gentrified to ensure -- gentrifies to ensure that they gain from the gentrification.

if you are a renter, there are things that can lock you in as a renter and give you an opportunity that your rent will not increase. if you are an owner, they can reduce the risk that your property taxes go up. there's also things that should allow you to gain from the overall rise of property taxes. there are tools that can help you gain from gentrification. the question is, is your government or the body -- i don't know if it is a state or county or city, exactly where you live. massachusetts is a big state relatively but there are policies and things that people can enact that will help you. those are things you need to look for. host: seth kaplan is the author of "fragile neighborhoods: repairing american society, one zip code at a time." thank you. guest: thank you so much, pedro. host: that is it for the program today. another addition of washington journal comes your way at 7:00 tomorrow morning. we will see you then. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its

caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2024]