the balance of power in congress. no political pundits, spin or commercials. just the candidates, the results and you. follow on tuesday on tv, online or on the free c-span now video app. >> the house will be in order. >> c-span celebrates 45 years of covering congress like no other we have been your primary source for capitol hill, providing balanced unfiltered covege of government, taking you to where the policy is debated and decided. c-span, 45 years and counting. powered by cable. joined by jacob are bashing, deputy editor of inside

elections. and inside elections, you wrote back in mid-october that the elections were coming right elections were coming right down to the wire. how much has changed since you wrote that? guest: a lot has changed but that assessment has not. these elections are still incredibly close and there are ample opportunities for both democrats and republicans to win control of the white house or the house of representatives, and we are even seeing some late shifts in the united states senate. there are a lot of moving pieces in the selection, but the topline assessment that either party could come away from tuesday with a pretty good night remains exactly the same. host: what is the blue wall, and can you talk a bit about the likelihood that harris is going to gain some victories? guest: the blue wall is a term coined by the legendary ron brown's be to talk about the set

of states who voted consistently for democratic presidential candidates from 1988 onwards all the way up until 2016. originally that traditionally included democratic state like california, new york, maryland as well as some of the swing states that always seem to break for democrats, but in 2016 what we saw was the blue wall began to crack. donald trump carried michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and that was enough for him to defeat hillary clinton. now when people talk about the blue wall for kamala harris, that is essentially what they're talking about, winning michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania and getting to 270 electoral votes for the democrat if you factor in those california and new york, washington, oregon, the states that we know are going to

consistently vote democrat. the blue wall is one of the two main feeders of this presidential election along with come of course, the sunbelt states to become increasingly competitive. host: how much impact do you expect vice president harris and former president trump and the decision of whether or not to support them to affect some of the down ballot races? guest: the presidential has a lot of effects on the down ballot races because we are at a historical low in ticket splitting. it used to be that how you voted for president only had a minimal bearing on how you voted for a race down ballot. people were more than happy to vote one party for president, a different party percentage and house. a lot of people did that. we saw democrats continue to do very well in republican states up until 2010. democratic senators in montana

and north dakota, louisiana. places that were not electing democrats at the top of the ticket, and the same thing in the house. we used to see a broad swath of each party coalition of the house coming from districts that were carried by the other party's presidential nominee. but over the last two decades we seen a steep decline in that practice and now how a person votes for president is probably the best predictor for how they are going to vote for senate or house, and for other races down the ballot. if kamala harris has a good night on tuesday, she's probably going to bring a lot of down ballot democrats with her, and the same goes for donald trump because if you're voting for trump, you are just so much less likely to vote for a democrat in the house or senate. voting for harris, you are really probably not going to vote for a republican for any of those down ballot races, either. host: can you talk about some of

the key races to watch in the house? guest: we have a tossup's in the final estimation for the house of representatives. we sat down, we crunched all the numbers come interview the candidates. in a whole swath of district across the country. in our final assessment, or the assessment from last thursday, we saw democrats favored in 214 seats, republicans favored in 213 seats and a tossup's, four by democrats, four by republicans. they are evenly divided chamber. some of the races we are looking at specifically, a couple in california, california's 27th district in los angeles, republican mike garcia is looking to hold onto his seat despite it leaning somewhat democratic. he's a former fighter pilot, he's facing a democrat named george whitesides who is a

personally wealthy entrepreneur who with the democrats first new candidate in this district in three elections. they nominated the same person three times, she lost every time. we are watching that one. next, california's 45th district where republican michelle steel is running for reelection. that's a very interesting race. washington's third congressional district, facing a rematch with her opponent, one of the biggest upsets of the night in southwestern washington. and finally, the last one i want to mention is colorado's eight congressional district which is just all tied up in all of the polling that is out there. democratic congresswoman running

in a relatively new district against republican gave evans. this one will be a really good bellwether for how the cycle is going for either party depending on who wins. host: can you talk to me a little bit about the race for the house seat in alaska? guest: this is one of the most interesting races on the map, a seat held by a democrat that is the most republican. the incumbent, trump won alaska by 10 points in 2020. there's no democrat who holds a seat as republican as that. really only a couple of republicans hold seats as democratic as that would be on the others. so this is a pretty rare instance for any house member in this day and age. it speaks to the ability to influence from across the aisle in a state that is notoriously anti-partisan. alaskans really don't like political labels.

she's been able to take advantage of that independent streak. but she faces a really tough reelection campaign because in her first two runs, republicans were very divided in the state. they were choosing between two different candidates, sarah palin the may remember at the former governor, and the grandson of a former congressman. and with two republicans on the ballot, it made it difficult because alaska uses a pretty unique rank-choice voting system no other state uses that actually allows for candidates to be on the ballot from any party in november. so that means you could have two republicans and one democrat. that of course splits the democratic vote in a way that makes it difficult for them to beat her in the past. what they did this cycle was they started out with two republicans vs. one democrat,

that they were successful in getting one of those republicans to drop out. they have a clear shot for the first time since she got to congress. meanwhile, she's taking a lot of incoming negative ads that she never had to deal with before because the republicans were fighting amongst themselves. so this is her most challenging election yet. we actually see her as a very slight underdog at this point just because alaska is so republican a state, but it's going to be very close and we won't know the outcome until november 20. so several weeks after election day when they actually run the rank-choice voting tabulation and we can figure out when the second and third choice votes are allocated, who the next member of congress is going to be. host: let's look at some ads from that race. i should say that the ad is called vote actually, and it is

ripping off of a scene called love actually and doesn't have any spoken word. let's go ahead and play those. ♪

♪ >> what do you need to know? nick is a good husband. he's a conservative family man. he uses his land responsibly. nick will make for a good congressman because he is one of the most caring individuals that i know and he cares about alaska. we have one representative in the state and that representative has to have a strong voice. he has a strong voice. he will do what is right for the state. host: i do want to move on to the senate but for the quickly following up on the alaska race, with that decision coming so late after election day and we

are looking at such a tight race for control of the house, that might make things a little bit contentious there. guest: absolutely. it's not out of the realm of possibility that this race determines control of the house of representatives. it's not the likeliest outcome because there are so many moving pieces, but in a universe where the two parties are deadlocked at 217 seats of peace heading into that ranked choice tabulation, there is going to be a tremendous amount of attention, a massive spotlight on that november 20 ranked choice tabulation. all the things that could go wrong with ranked choice to make it a little bit more of a complex system are going to get a lot of scrutiny no matter what, and especially if this race has something to do with who controls the majority of the house next year. host: will be going to callers in just a second. republicans can reach us at (202) 748-8001. democrats at (202) 748-8000.

independents at (202) 748-8002. jacob, walk over to the other side of capitol hill, talk us through the big races you're watching. guest: the senate is much more favorable territory to republicans this year than either the fight for the white house to fight for the house. that's just a function of the seats that are up. of course not every senate race is up every cycle. one third of the chamber is up for reelection, and this is a slate of states that pretty clearly favor republicans. republicans have the advantage in the overall chamber, and they are on offense in deep red states like montana and west virginia. in the presidential battlegrounds, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, nevada, arizona, even in some blue states like new mexico or maryland. and democrats only have a few offensive opportunities to drive to offset losses.

a pretty good match republicans and of course they only need one seat plus the white house or to seats overall to take back the majority, so not a big hill to climb for them. what we are watching right now is a couple of seats that seem to be right in the middle of the battlefield. montana is the seat that republicans feel the best about taking from an incumbent democrat. senator jon tester is struggling in his race for a fourth term against republican tim sheehy. the pulse sat him down. we see him as a slight underdog. if republicans win that race and the west virginia race which we expect them to win, that is plus to right off the bat. host: let me pause you there, i want to play a couple of the ads from that montana race and then get you to finish up your comment. >> not going to comment, all i can say is -- ♪

>> it doesn't matter what they say, it's a game people play. our lips are sealed. pay no mind to what they say. it doesn't matter anyway. our lips are sealed. our lips are sealed. our lips are sealed. just to confirm, you don't have any comments on this matter? >> i do believe that we need to get radical about we are doing. maybe i am radical. >> kamala harris supported illuminating public health services in giving taxpayer funded health care to illegal

aliens. >> maybe i am radical. >> jon tester voted to give taxpayer-funded health care to illegal immigrants. making them eligible for medicare. jon tester votes like a radical democrat. i'm tim sheehy and i approve this message. host: those are ads from the montana race. what were some of the other races you are saying we should keep an eye on? guest: ohio is the only pure tossup on the mat. the democrat trying to outperform the partisanship of the state against his republican opponent. that is a race the democrats absolutely have to hold onto as crucial if they want to keep control of the chamber, and that one is coming down to the wire. both parties feeling cautiously optimistic in the last couple of days, but absolutely the closest race on the map. and then democrats trying to pull off some major upsets in texas, where congressman colin

allred is challenging senator ted cruz. this is a state the democrats have been trying to win for decades. they have won a statewide race since 1994. ted cruz -- excuse me, already is trying to be the first democrat to do so in 30 years, and ted cruz because some of his unique vulnerabilities may actually be in a bit of danger. and then the corky's phrase on the mat for sure is in nebraska, where republican senator deb fischer faces a really tough challenge from an independent candidate named dan osborne. there's no democrat on the ballot, so osborne is running with support from democrats. he is running a very aggressive populace campaign against fisher, and fisher didn't take this race seriously for most of the year. that put her behind the eight ball with just a couple be cleft to go before election day when she woke up and realized she was probably losing that race in september or early october. since then we've seen republicans try to rush to her rescue.

she stepped up her campaigning but an audit race, one that is going to be a lot closer than it has any business being in a state as republican as nebraska. host: let's go to your calls. rachel is in maryland on the line for democrats. caller: first of all i just want to say i command your memory recall because i just could never. i wanted to ask what your thoughts are on the third congressional race, and on the race between larry hogan and angela also brooks. host: marilyn races. guest: the third congressional race in maryland, i was actually just in annapolis the other day. this was essentially decided in the primary. the incumbent democrat in that seat is retiring after about 20

years in congress. there was a really brittle primary to succeed him, a whole bunch of democrats ran, and a lot of local officeholders in addition to former police officer harry dunn who defended the capitol at the january 6 insurrection. he raised a lot of money but was ultimately defeated by a state legislator who got some significant support from outside groups including udp, the aipac affiliated super pac. she will moser the be the next member of congress from maryland's third district because it is a pretty democratic seed. she will replace john sir van. in the senate race in maryland, this is one of the more contentious races on the map, for sure. former governor larry hogan put this contest on the map when he jumped in the race. it was 90 race that democrats

were paying a lot of attention to in terms of the fight for the majority before he was involved, but because he was so popular, still as popular after his two terms as governor, it meant democrats really had to step up their game in maryland. nomination of the summer, he had sent all her money to david truax and she needed a lot about that assistance from the national party to regain her footing against these very popular former governors, larry hogan. and she seems to have done just that. it's taken democrats about 15 million dollars, $20 million to get this race where it needs to be better at this point, her leaders approaching double digits and given how democratic maryland is, we talk a little bit about how republican montana is and that makes it tough for jon tester. maryland is so democratic it is just not going to vote for a republican senator. maryland is as democratic a

state as idaho is republican. we wouldn't talk about a democrat winning idaho, it's almost certainly going to be the case that the republican can win the senate race in maryland this year. host: let's hear from luis in fredericksburg, virginia on the line for republicans. caller: good morning. i noticed on your channel that you have a lot of anti-death penalty, whatever it is on aids and things like that. lots of comments. you even revived presidential governor dukakis, for god sake. host: if you have a question for jacob about any of these house or senate races that are of the cycle. caller: i do. i really believe that america is going to, i hope that they see what is going on with the wars. i haven't heard any discussion about war hardly at all.

and here, i know for sure that you won't win. they strum signs everywhere. and so i'm really hoping that we don't vote blue, no matter who. host: luis raises an interesting point. i wonder how much you are seeing the ongoing conflict in gaza showing up in some of these house and senate races. guest: and virginias seven congressional district, which includes fredericksburg, she mentioned the democratic candidate, if that name sounds a miller is because eugene vindman and his between brother alexander vindman where the two whistleblowers during the trump ukraine saga way back in 2019. in that race particularly i think there is more tension than usual being placed on the conflict in ukraine. his opponent derek anderson, the

republican is a retired green beret, so he also has a lot of military experience. and in northern virginia, foreign policy issues are probably going to play a larger role than they would in your typical congressional district. but that is a very hard-fought race, a very swing district. then dement has raised a lot of money because of his celebrity status in the wake of those first trump impeachment hearings that helped him eek out a small lead in the polls. this is a really good example of a district that who wins the presidential is going to have a big effect on who wins the down ballot contest because if harris wins that district by as much as joe biden did in 2020, five or six points, it's going to be very tough for derek anderson to get over that roadblock in order to win. but speaking more generally,

foreign policy is just not at the top of most voters minds. they care more about the economy, about abortion, about immigration, about democracy than they do about what is going on on a different continent. and it is really only certain pockets of the country and among certain voters that we see foreign-policy issues take a much more front and center stage. if you are looking at a state like michigan which has a significant native american, arab-american population, that is a real problem spot for the harris campaign at a presidential level. trump wins in michigan a couple days ago to try to win some votes in the muslim community there. that's clearly an avenue that he sees as a potential advantage in a state as evenly divided as michigan is. the war in gaza in frustration over american policy there and america's continued support for israel is playing a role in the

election there in michigan, but broadly speaking when you ask voters with the most important issues are that they are making their minds about, anything foreign-policy is just going to rank toward the bottom of the list. host: we have text from james in new york who says what is your assessment on ny 17 congressional race? guest: new york 17. when the cycle began, we thought this was going to be the biggest battleground and one of democrats best opportunities. this is a seat that was held by democrats until 2022. from patrick maloney who is the head of the democratic campaign committee, lost his reelection by a couple thousand votes in a bit of an upset. and democrats really wanted that seatback. but it has morphed into a bit of a problem spot for new york democrats.

their nominee is a former congressman, one of the party's best fundraisers, but he does have some weak spots that lawler has effectively exploited. he is on camera expressing support for defund the police, he has a close relationship to aoc and that has shown up in a lot of campaign ads, and he also left the district two years ago to try to run for a totally different seat where he said that he was going to move to and make his new home before losing that race and moving back up into the hudson valley to run for congress again in the 17th district. this is a seat that we see republicans slightly favored in, even though the district on the holdings a little bit more democratic, and it is an example of how, even as a lot of things have gone right for house democrats over the last couple of months, there are still some trouble spots that can prevent

the party, especially when it comes to issues of candidate quality, can prevent the party from getting even greater gains in winning back the house. host: new jersey, line for democrats. morning, keith. caller: i have some questions that a few congressional races. what about new york 19? new york four, pennsylvania one. host: that was new york 19, new york four and pennsylvania one. guest: new york 19, my personal favorite district. it is upstate, a whole bunch of different areas. a little hudson valley, avon syracuse, capital region. republican marc molinaro is the incumbent. we see him as a very slight underdog against josh riley, the democratic challenger. they faced off in 2022, riley

lost my little over 2000 votes but he's running a much better funded campaign now and democrats have been pretty effective at taking apart his records since he got to congress. it's going to be a close race. we actually see riley as a slight favorite in that race at this point. new york four out on long island, southern nassau county, the town of hempstead if you want to be real specific. the republican is trying to hold onto a district that is the most democratic seat held by republicans. that was the most republican seat held by a democrat. this is the inverse. biden would've carried the district by about 14 points, and so it is an uphill climb for the freshman republican. he's a former nypd officer, a local politician and he's got some strengths, but he's also had some embarrassing stories come out about some personal

relationships and campaign-finance spending. he faces challenges. we see him as a slight underdog against laura guillen who also ran against him last time and lost very narrowly but is running a better funded, more supported campaign this time around. so that is new york four. finally pennsylvania one, this is a seat that has bedeviled democrats for a decade or more. it is a democratic leading seat in the hilly suburbs and yet republicans have been able to hold onto it and before then, his brother was able to hold onto it despite it being a democratic leaning territory. we see ryan fitzpatrick at the clear favorite in that race. he faces a democrat named ashley e house who stop me if you've heard this before, also ran in 2022 and is running a better funded, sharper campaign but still likely to come up short. host: line for republicans, good morning.

caller: hi. i wish you'd let me finish my statement before you interjected with any kind of western. -- question. i'm really concerned about the democrats adding in votes after midnight. if your state does not report their final tally before midnight, you should storm your state capital. host: we are not going to call for violence on here. line for intendeds -- independents. caller: i live in a district that was previously district 13 but now the republicans and have the super majority in the house and general assembly have redrawn in our supreme court has upheld which is very sad.

in what used to be quite a swing district is now not at all. i'm just curious if you could talk a little bit about the specifics of north carolina and then on the largest spectrum of this, and correct me if i'm wrong and you are somebody who really know the cards on this in every district, but it looks like the big blue states that have certain independent boards that look at redistricting, that sort of prevent against that are actually the ones where republicans are able to pick up seats. and in the red states where you have super majority control, that gerrymandering is getting worse. can you just talk about how there is sort of a double standard in that regard, and give us the totality of what you think north carolina's overall trend will be on tuesday? thank you so much. guest: north carolina is one of the most contentious lead gerrymandered states and has

been for quite some time. i think over the last six ounce elections, north carolina has had five different maps at this point. they are always redrawing the maps, so in 2020 it was a new map drawn by the courts that allowed democrats to pick up a handful of seats. in 2022, it was also a map drawn by the courts because they tossed out the map drawn by the state legislature. that allowed democrats to pick up a few more seats, so your congressman in north carolina 13th district, he won a very close race in 2022. but what happened in between 2022 and now is that the state supreme court flipped from being a democratic majority between republican majority. as soon as that happened, republicans re-filed a lawsuit against the district and got the

new republican majority to say actually, a map that we implemented in 2022, that is the bad map. republicans in the state legislature, you get a new chance to throw a fresh map for 2024. went from being an evenly divided map, seven democrats, seven republicans to a map that has at least a guaranteed 10 seats for republicans, the receipts for democrats and then one tossup district in that north carolina's first seat for democrat don davis facing a tough reelection. so that is the story north carolina. republicans are going to pick up at least three seats in that state and if they hold the majority, that's going to be a big part of why they do it. they are probably only going to get a pretty narrow majority next year if they do get a majority. north carolina playing a crucial role there.

the new map playing a big part of republican resilience the cycle. to your other point about the commissions, that is generally true but it extends beyond blue states. probably the most notable versions of that are in places like california where there is an independent redistricting commission that draws the map and republicans have had some success in the last two cycles. but swing states like michigan have independent redistricting commissions that have created maps where both parties have flipped competitive seat of the last couple of years. colorado, a blue-leaning state that has a commission that created a map with some competitive districts. but also a state like iowa, a pretty republican state, they have probably one of the most well credentialed -- redistricting commissions, and they do a very good job making at least three of the four districts in that state in the

highly competitive seats despite the fact that overall republicans tend to do pretty well. i think what you are picking up on is absolutely correct. states with independent redistricting commissions are going to have more competitive districts, more opportunities for one party to win seats. seats that are still being drawn by the state legislatures like north carolina, texas, florida are not going to have any competitive districts. they are going to lock in those majorities. host: celeste's in wisconsin on the line for democrats. caller: hello, yes. thank you for taking my call. at the beginning of the show, when it was talked about, if you tend to vote democrat, then you will vote democrat for the other seats also, or the other elections, senate, congress. and that's what i do.

i voted democrat, and i voted democrat down the line, only because i want to see things getting done. it seems like with democrats on one side, republicans on the other, that we are not working together. so i want as many democrats in there just to see things get done. and then with the races going on in wisconsin, i had a few questions about what is important and what is not important, and how come i don't hear about climate change? what is going on in the world, and the united states here, flooding, tornadoes, fires, i can't believe that not more is being said about climate change. host: i just wanted to let jacob

respond to some of the points that you raised. weked abt how important foreign policy is, what about issues like climate change? guest: it is rare that you see candidates make a point of centering climate change on the issues that they talk about most. typically when we do see that, it is younger candidates because we know that young voters carry a lot more about climate change than older voters to, on average, of course. obviously it is not a hard and fast rule, but i do think that there is a big age disparity there, some of the most vocal voices in the democratic party in that climate change are coming from the youngest members of the conference. and the republicans to the extent that there are republicans were concerned about climate change, it typically is coming from some of the younger folks as well.

certainly in wisconsin it is not an issue that seems to have risen to the top of that campaign. we've got a lot of interesting races in the badger state. the presidential race at the top of the ticket, incredibly close. 10 electoral votes that are very much up for grabs. both parties making a clear play for that, in wisconsin was one of the closest states in the 2020 election. biden only winning by a fraction of a percent. a lot of investment going in there. that senate race between tammy baldwin and eric hovde, the republican is also a top-tier contest. he's very personally wealthy and has spent a lot of his own money, gotten a lot of outside support to try to paint baldwin as somebody was from washington, who doesn't look out for wisconsinites anymore. democrats have been trying to make the residence in southern california and his ownership of a big bank a real issue for him.

and even at the house level, there are some interesting races on either side of this. you got the first congressional district, which is in southeastern wisconsin, republican faces a challenge. in a seat that would probably go republican but has been interesting. and on the western side of the state, the freshman republican is facing a pretty stiff challenge from democrat rebecca cook, a seat that will probably go republican, but two races that we are watching pretty closely. i watch a lot of campaign ads, i've seen probably dozens of campaign ads from tammy baldwin, eric of the -- caricom the -- eric hovde d, i struggle to recall any of them in touch on climate change. it is not an issue that is breaking into the commercials, at least, and i think that is a reflection of where the campaigns feel that they can get

the votes and unfortunately it is just not an issue that they are willing to put time and attention on. host: mike is in nassau, new york on our line for independents. caller: we are a part of that 19th district. i don't think people realize how strange it is. my backyard is five minutes or massachusetts in the 19th because all the way down to the pennsylvania border. they very strange district. where i am, by the massachusetts border, with the albany area brings to us is more economically viable for us. it's funny to see all the ads, that is 3.5, four hours away. i was wondering if you could speak about that. i was calling on the independent line because they washed the democrats move this district around for years and years. thank you. guest: this district kind of fits into the space left by the

other districts, you have your buffalo district, your syracuse district, the southern tier district represented, you north district, your capital region, and then your hudson valley. there is a space in the middle that kind of takes pieces from all of that and that is new york's 19th street. you write by the massachusetts border, the district goes all the way west to ithaca, it goes south to sullivan county. it really does type your whole bunch of different parts of the state. it has five different media markets in it, which is a lot. we really don't see that outside of some of those states out west that cover a lot of ground but not a lot of people. it is an interesting district to campaign in. you are able to tailor your messages depending on which tv stations your running ads on, but it does take a lot of effort and resources to keep for the

entire district. josh riley, the democrat is one of his party's best fundraisers, raising almost $10 million this year which puts him at the very top tier of fundraisers in either party in the house, and that has allowed him to really get his message out and potentially get himself in position to go to congress. it's absolutely a fascinating district with folks from all different regions of the state and it requires a comprehensive method by each candidate, but when we are watching very closely. host: indiana, line for independents. caller: i would like a rundown of indiana. i know it is a bright red state. with got mike braun running for governor and in evansville, we elected a black lady for mayor for the first time and she's

done a pretty good job. and i just wondered if you could give us a rundown of indiana, southern district. guest: indiana has a couple of interesting races. a lot of open seats that were up for grabs on the republican side across the races due to some retirements or up in northeast indiana, leaving his seat to run for senate, a seat vacated by mike braun. a couple that also are back for grabs, some very contentious primaries. but the most competitive race at this point probably looks like the governors race, which is not something any of us really expected to be talking about

this late in the game. mike braun is not an absolute lock the indiana governor's mansion this tuesday. he faces a challenge from jennifer mccormick, a former state superintendent. she ran the schools and she is a former republican herself. she was elected statewide as a republican before switching parties to become a democrat, and there is a third-party candidate in that race, a libertarian named donald rainwater is making life difficult for mike braun. in 2020 he ran for governor winning 12% of the vote. that's a lot of votes for a libertarian and a lot of that could come from the republican side of the aisle. so it drops his support. it might allow jennifer mccormick to win with less than 50% of the because it is very tough for a democrat to get anywhere near 50 in indiana. the other thing that is going on of course is that mike braun's running mate, his lieutenant

governor candidate is a pretty controversial guy. he said some controversial things, he was not the pick to be the running mate, he got nominated by the republican convention in the state, and he has made some missteps that have cost braun some support. then governors race, still republicans favored, but one to keep an eye on. and the only congressional race in the state that is even mildly competitive is up in gary, the first congressional district who is running in a seat that leans democratic but is trending toward republicans. the republican opponent there, he doesn't look like he is going to win this time that is a district that the rest of the decade is going to be quite competitive for both parties if those trends hold. host: last caller, walter in cleveland, ohio on the line for democrats. caller: leading up to the 2020

election, i heard a lot that more votes that were going to be cast, the better it would be for democrats. i haven't heard that so much leading up to the selection. does the same hold true? guest: maybe not. and that is one of the most interesting things about this election cycle is that trump is showing a surprising degree of strength among the lowest propensity voters. voters who are least likely to show up, voters who didn't vote in either 2020 or 2022 but might vote in 2024. those people are actually the most favorable, and it is the voters who consistently voted in 2020 and 2022 primaries, those voters are most favorable to kamala harris. that is with the data shows us. that's why we aren't worried nearly as much about a high turnout scenario that might help democrats, but ultimately it matters who is turning out.

just because we are talking about high turnout there is not one high turnout person. it really does matter who is actually showing up, which of the lower propensity voters are coming to cast their ballots. you're absolutely hitting on something that a lot of folks in the political world are talking about, but until we know who exactly is going to show up to the polls, it is hard to say whether high turnout or low turnout really does hurt the democrats in a way that hasn't before. host: thank you so much for sharing your expertise.