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journal" for friday, november 29. the holiday season is officially derw, and it is expected to be a big we can for retailers and shoppers. how much individuals will spend will largely depend on how they feel about the economy and their own financial situation. we are asku, will the economy change your holiday spenng? here are the lines. if you s yes, (202) 748-8000. if you sayo, (202) 748-8001. if you are unsure, it is (202) 748-8002. you can also text (202) 748-8003, include your name and your city/state. you can also post a question or comment on facebook at facebook.com/c-span or on x with handle @cspanwj. good morning, and thank you for being with us today, hope

everyone had a nice thanksgiving holiday. with the end of the thanksgiving day holiday comes the official start of the holiday season. this headline from the hill, holiday cells are poised to set new records in 2024 and could increase by as much as 3.5% from 2003. the national retail federation announced tuesday, the article from last month, the national retail federation forecasts holiday retail sales will total approximately $980 billion, between $900 billion, between november 1 and december 31, up from $955.6 billion during the same time in 2023. the anticipated uptick in consumer spending follows moderation and inflation with the economy in the wake of the

pandemic and last months much-anticipated interest rate cuts which have helped with borrowing costs. the labor market has remained strong. predictions of a recession never came to pass. the federal reserve's year-long and stressed rights -- consumers have greater breathing room after higher prices aid away at their buying power for several years -- ate away at their buying power for several years. looking at how much individuals are expected to spin this year, this from gallup, says the holiday shopping season looks promising. that is according to two indicators. u.s. consumer gift buying intentions, the total amount americans will spend this christmas and on other holiday gifts, it is slightly higher than what they estimated at this time a year ago.

the latest, $1012 from november 6 through 20 survey, up from $975 last november. the new poll finds americans less conservative in usual and how they characterize their spending, with almost as many say they will spend more on gifts, 19 percent, as saying they will spend less, 23%. additionally, unlike most years when american holiday spending estimates decrease, the average spending figured this season has not changed since the initial reading in october. we are asking you, will the economy change your holiday spending? again, the lines, if you say yes, (202) 748-8000. if you say no, (202) 748-8001. if you are uure, (202) 748-8002.

earlier this week on "washington journal," a moody's senior economist was on the program, talking about why people are not feeling positive about the economy despite a strong economic indicators. here is that clip. [video clip] guest: there is a big disconnect between the happy talk you hear from economists like me and these surveys, and top of the list is the previously high inflation, going back two or three years ago when prices were rising for groceries and rent, created by the pandemic and russian war in ukraine, and even though those prices are no longer raising significantly, gas prices down and rents has not moved in two years, and grocery prices are flat, they are still up from 2, 3, 4 years

ago. that is what people remember. i asked the same question to people at work, and i am getting the same answer. turns out, everyone has one food item that they buy on a riegler basis that they use as a litmus test -- on a regular basis that they use as a litmus test. like that can be checked -- ka mbucha tea and other things. that is what has people irked, high inflation. also, our politics our rapture, people heated about their political perspective, and they are looking at the economy through the political prism. there is a survey every month, and results after the election, republicans responded, it went from being very pessimistic about the economy

too much more positive, and just the opposite for the democrats. so we are looking at the world through our own political prism. host: for this first hour, we are asking, will the economy change your holiday spending? we will start with john in alabama, he says yes. good morning. caller: good morning. can you hear me? host: yes, i can. caller: ok, do you have a question or do you want me to respond? host: go ahead, what is your plan for holiday spending? caller: well, i have to take into consideration, of course, the new election results. and along with my available income, even though there has been a slight uptick in the overall salary, many of the expenses that i am reimbursed for, it remains steady for the last 10 years, so you have to

consider not just the inflation rate but the ability to spend at a higher rate. like this gentle man just commented, overall expenses have increased over a quarter in the last five years. host: do you know how much you spent last year on holiday shopping? caller: probably $2000. host: do you think you will spend more or less this year because of what you just mentioned, the fact that wages maybe modestly went up but there is also inflation? caller: correct. probably about the same, because even though we do have a new administration, we do not know what the outcome will be in terms of the overall economy, at least for the short run. so i think a conservative approach is a wiser approach until we see how things flush

out. host: have you already started your holiday shopping? caller: actually, i have not because i am away from home right now, working away from home. my wife probably has. host: that was john in alabama. elizabeth in maryland also says yes. good morning. caller: yes, good morning thank you for taking my call. i do very little holiday shopping because i hry little money. i am a disabled senior in maryland, and i only buy christmas cards for my family for the holidays. i cannot afford christmas presents. thr, my money will go to gaza,heuman agency helping people in gaza, because people in gaza are starving to death. is cold and freezing an the rain and snow in palestine is

te. i just read an article on cnn that people have nowhere to go. there is the fighting in palestine, and people have no shelters. they are freezing to death and starving to death. i am going to donate what little money i have to gaza. that is all i want to say. thank you. host: nick in michigan says no. good morning. caller: hi, yes, i called on the no lines because my spending is not affected by the overall economy. i live well below my means, so whatever i need to buy, i buy. i am not affected by the ups and downs. i wanted to make a comment of the various articles you read. i do not know if you think those are accurate information. let's take the predictions, they make the prediction that supposedly black friday this you will be a record high, 3%

higher, whatever, than last year, something like that, if i remember well. first of all, you assume these guys are correct. second of all, 3% higher? what about inflation. in terms of real things but, at best, it is only flat. to the 3% inflation, which is actually far higher than that, if you look at people buying the food, i was shopping a few days ago, and there was a cereal that said on sale, and a little box was priced at seven dollars. and the sale is for 50

cents, at most. that is ridiculous that is why people voted the way they voted. it is a fairytale. it is apples to watermelons. host: let's look at it this way, regardless of what inflation is and where prices are, how is it going to affect you personally? caller: i answered that already. it does not affect me. that is why i called on the appropriate line, the line that says no. it will not change my holiday spending. host: that was nate in michigan. this article from nerd wallet is talking about the amount americans are planning to spend, their own survey done with 2000 u.s. adults and also conducted online. according to the survey, more than four in five americans, 83%, plan to purchase gifts for friends and loved ones this holiday season. holiday shoppers will spend that

$925, on average, more than 217 million americans, spending over $201 billion, quite a bit higher than the 2023 holiday shopping report. it says travel spending is up, as well. 49% of americans plan to spend money on flights and hotels during the 2024 holiday season, spending on average of $2330 for those expenses. it also says more than 120 million americans spend nearly a hundred billion dollars on travel costs, compared to $254 billion in the 2023 holiday report. again, we are asking you this first hour, will the economy change your holiday spending? if you say yes, (202) 748-8000. if you say no, (202) 748-8001.

if you are unsure, (202) 748-8002. you can also text or send us a message on facebook. a couple responses on twitter, or on x. this one says, no, the economy will not change my holiday spending, my holiday spending will change the economy thanks to president trump and the election. things are looking up, everyone is seeing it. best christmas in over 2000 years, happy days are here again, the skies above are clear again. this one says, no, but i am pretty frugal in my spending year-round. michael in tennessee says, yes, the economy will change his holiday spending. good morning, michael. caller: hi, yes it is. my husband and i are planning on spending approximately, oh, a

little over $5,000. he is with my daughter in line for black friday. we're going to spend, and the economy is doing so -- i mean, i do not understand the media. they sit there and tell us how bad it is, especially the right wing fox news and all that, but we have been doing so good. i just filled up my truck for two dollars and $.59. -- $2.59. i do not understand how people are saying the economy is so bad. we went to dinner the other night in gallatin, tennessee, at a steakhouse, and it was packed. we had to wait 15 minutes to get a table. i don't know. the next administration coming in, i don't know what trump is going to do. who knows. but as far as my family is concerned, we are doing so

great. our family, friends are doing so great, everybody is doing really well. so i don't know. can any trump supporter call in and say how bad the economy is? i don't know, i really don't know. host: michael, how does this year compared to last year? caller: last year was a little bit smaller. my daughter, we just moved her to los angeles. she is intending usc to become a marine biologist. and i just don't know, i really do not know what people are complaining about. if you have a good job here in my husband and i are both retired from wall street, 32 years. this country has given us so much. we have raised five children and put them all through college. our youngest annabel, she is now at usc, a one bedroom apartment

five blocks from campus. our four other children are all six figures. my son, firstborn, he is a surgeon in dallas, texas, married to the most beautiful woman in the world that is a third grade teacher. it is just, i don't understand how people are saying, oh, god, it is so bad, so bad. i and my family, no, it is not bad, we are all doing great, living the american dream. host: that was michael in tennessee. jerome, washington, d.c., says not sure. good morning. caller: good morning. first of all, to respond to that last caller, it is people like him who obviously randy kamala harris -- who obviously ran the kamala harris campaign and is why she lost. speaking about his experience,

suggesting that because of his personal experience, everybody else is, too. what i really wanted to say is i do not understand people feeling the necessity to celebrate the holidays, go into debt, go into depression the suicide rate skyrockets during the holidays because people cannot afford certain things. so that is the bigger issue. why are consumers -- that is who we are, not citizens, not even really humans anymore, we're just consumers. how is it that we cannot break that mental slavery of consumerism that is destroying the country? that is leading to decline, why the youth are running the store stealing everything, because of consumerism. money has novella -- no value,

it is the things you buy with the money that people perceive as having value. it is an illness that is destroying the country as a whole and is destroying everyone individually. happy holidays. host: that is jerome in washington, d.c. he mentioned individuals going into debt when it comes to holiday spending. this article in today's washington times, headlined, buy now pay later payment plans gain popularity with u.s. shoppers. the article says that more shoppers than ever are on track to use buy now pay later this holiday season, the ability to spread out payments looking attractive at a time when americans still feel the lingering effects of inflation and already have record hi credit card debt. a data from critics shoppers will likely spend 11.4% more this holiday season using buy now pay later than they did a year ago.

they forecast shoppers will purchase $18.5 billion worth of goods using third-party services from november 1 through december 31, with $993 million worth of purchases on cyber monday alone. it says this holiday season, by now pay later, users can feel more confident when transaction bills arrive. in may, the consumer financial protection bureau said by now pay later companies must adhere to regulations that govern traditional credit. and they must follow dispute transactions. randy in michigan says yes, good morning. caller: good morning. i would like to start by thanking you and all the men and women it takes to bring us this great program. you are doing the nation a great service. yes, my spending will be

affected. i am lucky enough i will be able to spend a little bit more. it is after the pandemic and everything that went on, so i feel we will spend more this year than we did the last two years. now, it is not a lot, but every little bit more helps. i am lucky enough that both of my children have got decent jobs, both working well, and everybody is healthy. you cannot ask for much more than that. in this country, when things get tough, we buckle down and do whatever we have to to get through it, and better times are coming. thank you very much, and i hope everyone enjoys the holiday season coming up. host: randy, can i ask you a question? caller: yes, ma'am. host: you said you will be spending a little bit more with holiday spending, do you know where the money will go, travel, gifts, decorations? caller: it will be gifts.

i also have a new grandchild, so we know that will throw the budget out of whack. you know, new grandchild, you have got to celebrate that. you go up and down with the times, when they are good, you can spend a little bit more. everybody is happy. when they are bad, you spend a little bit less, and you just have to understand that is how it is. but i have been really blessed, and i am quite thankful. like i said, i will not take up any more time, so thank you very much. have a great holidays. host: that was randy, and congrats on the new grandbaby. robert in little rock, arkansas, says no. good morning. caller: good morning. can you hear me? host: yes, i do. caller: no, i will not change my style. i am living the same way i have been living for the last eight years. host: it is not going to change?

caller: no, i have been living the same way, live on a fixed income. i got a decent retirement, got social security, and i have not changed my lifestyle, period. if you live within your means, you do not have to worry about it. if you try to live like a rockstar, you will always be hit. host: how much do you normally spend during the holidays? caller: i spent for my kids and my grandkids. host: always good places to spend your money. we are getting some text messages and messages on socia channels. this from elaine in massachusetts, she says, on a fixed income, focung mostly on the meal and a few small gifts. this one from brian in arkansas, he says, yes, it will and already has. we spent most income on food, gas, and utilities.

let's hear from john in california, says yes. good morning. caller: good morning. yeah, i am going to change my spending habits. probably going to spend about the same amount of money, that i am going to try to buy stuff that will get t ariffed. we know tariffs are coming, so i will try to buy appliances and things like that. i am fortunate with my money and my kids are successful. on christmas and birthdays, you are allowed to gift a certain amount of money, and i use those two holidays to gift money to the maximum extent. so i give money, and when i do presents, i will buy stuff that maybe will disappear.

if they do tariffs, that stuff maybe will not be here. so i will use my money on things that will get tariffs because they will cost more later. host: what kind of appliances are you looking for, and how long does it take you to pick one when you are looking at prices? caller: i don't know, i was just going to go into target or something and look for mixers or things like that, irons and toasters and stuff like that. that is kind of what i was thinking, buy durable goods and things they can use in everyday life, copy makers -- coffee makers, things like that. they will get tariffs from china. anything made from china, get it now. i am very optimistic on the economy. i am super optimistic because trump has put all young people as his cabinet picks. i tell you, the average age is probably 55.

i am excited he is opening it up to the younger generations, and i really think next year will be rocky but, overall long-term, we will come out in four years a very, very strong country. and hopefully everybody will have a good chance at the american dream like i had. if you work hard and keep clean and do all that, you are going to go well. just don't get out of eurozone, just -- don't get out of your zone, stay in your zone. i wish everyone the best holidays. i have been fortunate. i have got some close friends i am going to take out to dinner because they are hurting, so i will do some stuff like that, some charity work with my close friends, not with an institution. but i am just going to take care of some of my friends i know are hurting. that has been my holiday season. so -- host: that was john in

california. this in this morning, usa today, helping pay for holiday gifts. according to a survey, they found that 87% of americans are either already side hustling or plan to pick up a side gig to afford the holiday expenses. of the respondents, 59% already have an extra job and another 19% plan on starting one. another study, 70% of full-time employees said they would take on additional work to afford the holidays, 40% of full-time workers said they already have a side gig, 30% said they plan to pick up a side hustle. employees said they would do gig work, seasonal retail jobs, and freelancing to boost their incomes. let's hear from lawrence in

florida, he says yes. good morning. caller: good morning. hello, can you hear me? host: yes, i can. caller: yes, it does affect. matter of fact, this has been going on for some time. it does not make any sense how they have been managing the funds in this country. you raise the amount of money you can make an hour, and yet they turn around and raise the cost of the food. and you are not getting anything more i and the cans or even a piece of candy. $1.50 is now $1.50. it is ridiculous. they cannot control things. got to move to foreign lands to help them out with their problems. it is like somebody always got a

b somebody else's backyard. but you can't go on their backyard. they can't go in your backyard, but always gotta be in their backyard or close to it. host: how is the economy going to change how you spend on the holidays? you are going to be spending less? caller: i am only spending half what i would have liked to spend. i have got 11 grand and great-grandchildren. instead of sending them -- spending $500, i have only spent $250. it is ridiculous. what about our country? we do not have people -- with all these educational things that we have, all these educations, colleges and universities, how come we can't live better than this? i am simple, live a simple life. i do not like to make things

complicated and people do not know what is going on. it is like they have a world of their own, and everybody is supposed to follow that. host: tom in indiana says no. good morning. caller: yeah, my wife and i are retirees, have been so for over 20 years, and we have always lived frugally and beneath our means. we have the same christmas and easter and thanksgiving decorations that we have had for years. we do not have to add to it. frugal is the way to go, and living beneath your means is the way to go. credit cards just to shop for our happy moments. host: you are talking about your spending, the same amount, it will not change. how is inflation and rising

prices, how has that impacted the past few holidays for you? caller: not at all, because we basically, again, we buy certain things, and it is normal, on the normal list. the inflation had a little bit of an effect on us, but i would say in terms of the major impact, no. host: that was tom in indiana. keith in massachusetts -- pete in massachusetts also says no. caller: hi, good morning. not at all. you know, i think maybe i live in a bubble. i have a nice job, but my last four years have been the best i have had from my portfolio. so, no, it won't. i will be able to do what i want. but i do understand the people, some people are hurting.

but i think this economy, like the caller a couple ahead said, it is not nearly as bad as it is per trade, and i think the democrats did a little bit of a bad job in the messaging, instead of accentuating a lot of the passages. i know i will get some blowback probably from some of your other callers, but i think things are fairly robust. i think they are counting on this administration to really change things, and i think they are in for a severe disappointment. and i really had my questions why people are not more leery of the trump-musk marriage. because if you think they are out for you, i think you are sadly mistaken. host: that was pete in massachusetts. this coming in from rob in huntington, west virginis

my general philosophy is to live weow my means,ully i will be able t foryself without help from anybod else. i do not let myself be pressured into spending a lot on christmas gifts, especially for adults. for me, it is more about getting together or reaching out to loved ones. we have just about 25 minutes or so left in this first hour i'm asking, will the college -- 25 minutes or so left in this first hour. we are asking, will this economy affect your holiday spending? if you say yes, (202) 748-8000. if you say no, (202) 748-8001. if you are unsure, (202) 748-8002. you can also send us messages on social media and by text. this in this morning's wall street journal, an opinion piece from judy shelton, a senior fellow at the independent institute, authored the book

"good as gold, how to unleash the power of found money." headline, trump should change the defense policies. she says now that donald trump is the president-elect, expect warnings about the danger of compromising the independence of the federal reserve. monetary officials will explain that politics should not play a part in decisions about long-term financial stability. we should be more concerned about the concentrated power held by the 12 voting members of the fed's open market committee, their decisions can decrease or increase unemployment, lower or raise inflation, and repress or stimulate economic growth. goes on to say the fed's decision rewards some people and hurts others, with obvious political implications. almost 62% of the gain in u.s. household wealth over the past four years went to those in the top 10% wealthy percentile

group. these outside gains for the wealthiest americans of the results of monetary policy that sent stock prices soaring, which primarily benefited people already flush with assets. this kind of wealth and equity prompts voters to demand change. mr. trump willed his economic agenda around -- built his economic agenda around addressing these grievances, promising lower inflation, fighting interest rates, higher wages, and higher growth. but unless these goals align with the feds model for achieving it, achieving it through a mandate, maximum employment, and stable prices, the central bank could undercut mr. trump's agenda. back to your calls, scott in missouri says no, the holiday spending will not change. caller: good morning. good morning. host: good morning.

we hear you. caller: i just called in to say the economy will not change christmas because i have not had four bad years, i have had four great years. i think the country is just fine the way it is going right now and do not see why anybody wants to change much, except on social security, having a ceiling on how much they pay, there should be no ceiling whatsoever. host: you said the past four years have been great for you. do you have any concerns about the possibility of tariffs coming in and affecting you? caller: not too crazy about it, but i am 70 years old and have a good life my whole life because i have always worked hard. there are those who do not want to work. just like unemployment, you cannot go past a store right now with a -- without a help wanted sign, and they cannot get anybody to work. host: do you own a business? caller: no, just a retired

construction worker. host: that was scott in missouri. sue in illinois also says no, good morning. caller: no, it is not going to change my spending. i find i get really irritated and, not depressed, but i think it is sad that people are going to spend money they do not have. i just feel like christmas has turned into people shoving merchandise at each other. i will buy for my nieces and nephews at a certain age, but if you are an adult, you do not need people buying you presents. what is wrong with you? i think it is ridiculous to spend all this money. six months from now, these kids will not even remember they got these gifts. i think we have all been asked lighted into thinking we have to spend, spend, spend -- i think we have all been gas lighted into thinking we have to spend. you do not have to do that, especially if you are an adult. do not expect people to buy you gifts. it is ridiculous.

host: who do you usually buy for, younger kids? caller: yeah, they should get gifts for christmas. host: how much do you normally spend? caller: probably $300 or four hundred dollars, have four great nieces and nephews. yeah, i think christmas is for kids. just too much emphasis on junk. i agree, if you are going out shopping, you better buy two of each, because next year, just wait. these prices are going to be really high. host: that was sue. i wanted to share some additional findings from the nerd wallet article, sue mentioned taking on debt for holiday spending. a key finding from nerd wallet, the survey found nearly three in 10 americans used credit cards to pay for holiday gifts last year, 28%, still have not paid off their balances, and same

portion, 28 percent, of 2023 holiday travelers who put flights on credit cards still have not paid off those balances. holiday giving me because shoppers stress, possibly in the name of showing daycare, 55% of holiday shoppers say the costs associated with holiday spending stresses them out, 32% of shoppers think it is important to purchase a holiday gift despite the costs to show others love. back to your calls. michael in california says no. good morning. caller: good morning. it is not really going to change anything in my life because i try to budget for holidays, which i do not do a lot of spending. i do not understand everyone saying they do not have any money, but there's more flights, more travel, where everything going on today than in years.

for the past 20 years, people been using their credit cards for christmas, and i do not understand that. you got to budget for everything. so i just budget for my grandkids, for my kids, and i do not have that problem. host: that was michael in california. george in missouri says yes. good morning. caller: good morning. i haven't changed my spending, but, yes, it is going to get bad. people who voted for this next president, they think things are bad now, things going to be a heck of a lot worse, so they better buckle up and see the truth about it. the economy is getting better, like the vice president who ran for office, she said things are going to go down, price gouging, and they are going to fix it.

trump hasn't said nothing about that. so the people better buckle up because it is going to get a heck of a lot worse, a lot worse. thank you for the call. host: linda in george, connecticut, says yes. good morning. caller: yes, we are going to be able to spend a little more this year. guess prices have been down. we are retired now and do not spend money on clothing or all those expenses that we used to have. so we're going to enjoy spending money on our children and grandchildren. hopefully things will be just as well next year. host: how much do you typically spend on the holidays? caller: according to my husband, it is too much, and i intend to spend more this year. so -- [laughs] for 14 people, usually around

$2000. host: what do you typically focus on, gifts or travel, food? caller: no, i keep it to a combination of clothing, a couple frivolous toys, some books, that kind of stuff. host: that was linda in connecticut. one of our earlier callers, or a couple, mentioned the possibility of prices increasing because of the tariffs that president-elect trump has suggested. this headline in usa today, trump tariffs could stoke inflation even before they start. it says in 2023 dollars, the tariffs announced monday would erode the purchase power of the average american household by $1200, says the director of economics at the yale budget lab. consumers may be able to shift some spending to domestic

versions, but it is not possible with every category of consumer goods. one example is agriculture, the u.s. is mexico's largest agricultural trade partner, buying about 92% of mexican experts in the category, according to data from the u.s. department of agriculture. the cost of discretionary items like electronics, if they are up, the consumer might be able to delay or skip those purchases. but tariffs on fresh food will be harder to substitute, at least in the short term, while retailers search for other suppliers, it says. just about 15 minutes left. next is susan in brentwood, georgia, she says that the economy will change her spending thng. caller: yes, my spending will change this year.

i am not buying any christmas gifts for anybody. i am fortunate enough where we do not have small kids anymore. and i think that christmas does need to be overhauled, and christmas spending should be for the little kids. so i am changing my habits. but one big thing making me change my habits, we need to stop spending our money on all that cheap stuff coming from china, period. if we stop spending our money on things that are coming from china, which is just cheap stuff, you will see that this economy in this country will turn around real good. and we need to start looking for things that are made in this country. but i have also taken a stance in not buying any cheap stuff that comes from china. thank you, i appreciate it. host: that was susan.

cynthia in raleigh, north carolina, says no. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i wanted to make a comment. basically, i just try to be generous all year. i just listen to god, and i tried to be as generous as i can. i do not know exactly what the amount will be, but just try to be generous in my heart and do what i can do. i wanted to comment on the topic for today. i do not understand why we can't say the word business -- christmas and hanukkah. host: who is telling you you cannot say the words christmas or hanukkah? are you still there? seems we have lost her.

we will go on to ellen. she says yes. caller: hello. i have lived in california all my life, and i do not want them to get rid of the dei. you know, diversity, inclusion, the dei. i think i am saying it right. anyway, i was with my job for 44 years but did not find about ira's or 401k's in the last five years of my working life. there needs to be inclusion so people know what to do. the southeast asian people i work with told me when they came to this country, they were indoctrinated to what you should do to become wealthy.

now i attend a senior center, and there's a lot of people there -- not a lot, a handful of people i work with there, and they told me, oh, i'm rich. but nobody told me, i worked alone. and i was in orphan and went through foster care. so if you do not know, you do not know. ok? host: that was ellen in california. peter in staten island, new york, says no. caller: i am a marine with disabilities. i feel because donald trump are going to get in, people are taking their time. why should they spend? you got to be careful what you are buying because you can lose it. buying things you don't need is one thing, buying things you do need is another thing. buy this, buy that, i think they should just slow down and

wait for this president to commonly. i am 77, and i am in pretty good shape. but you always got to think ahead and save money. money will get you food. and you see what is going on with all these people that are homeless and veterans. i do not want to go from one subject to the other, but just take care of yourself and watch her money. very simple, ok? host: tony in indiana says yes. good morning. caller: morning. good morning. host: go ahead. caller: yes, it is definitely going to change the way we spend this year. just the way everything was the last time with the tariffs and everything, the line of work i am in, we do a lot of aluminum

work. we barely made it through with all the tariffs the last time. and with the incoming president, he is talking tariffs again already. we are not going to spend anything on christmas this year. we're going to say what little bit we have and try and make sure we can keep our house and keep everything we have. yeah, it is going to make a big difference on everything. host: you were talking about the tariffs on steel, how much did that impact you and are you back to where you were before? caller: it made a big impact on us because we were in the line of business where we already had our pricing set on what we sold, the rv industry, so you have your pricing set. then aluminum prices go up because of imports, not only on

aluminum but on all the parts you import from overseas to build rv's, and then you cannot adjust those prices. you have already sold those rv's. so yeah, it made a big difference. we were going really good, but then election year comes up again, so, yeah, our sales have gone way down. everything is scaling way back right now, and orders are just down big time. and they are not coming back up, and i do not see them coming back up like they would have. i have been in this industry since 1980, and this is the first time that i have not seen it, even right after the election, already starting to make a big rebound. host: that was tony in indiana.

cynthia in raleigh, north carolina, says no. caller: can you hear me? i got cut off last time. host: i can hear you now. go ahead. caller: because i am hearing some static, sorry if it is my phone, it is charged. i will try to move around. can you kindly tell me who decides the topic in terms of using the word holiday instant of christmas and hanukkah? to me, it is the holidays, about the birth of our lord and savior jesus christ, same with hanukkah. why can't we say christmas and hanukkah? and who decides how to pose the question for the day? host: sure, there's a team of producers here, and we are overseen by an executive producer. when we use a word like holiday, it is all-encompassing to include christmas, new year's, hanukkah, kwanzaa, more of a catchall instead of trying to

put all that on a graphic. nobody is against any of those holidays. caller: ok, i just hoped that would change and you would name the holidays. and kwanzaa, i did not know much about it but quickly licked it off before i called you. i am all for -- i quickly looked it up before i called you. i am all for celebrating african-american history, but i just realized it is not actually a holiday. i just looked it up. i would like to hear the specific holidays. what is your spending for christmas, hanukkah? kwanzaa, even though it is a non-christian holiday. to me, we should name the holidays. i do not know why we can't do that. ok, but anyway. host: thanks. we appreciate it. scott in maine is not sure about the economy and the impact on

his holiday spending. good morning. caller: good morning. how are you today? host: doing well. caller: i think i am probably going to spend the same amount, but rather than trying to spread it across minor gifts for lots of people, it will probably go towards better gifts for the kids. because the adults kind of understand what is going on right now, but the kids don't. so just aiming the funds elsewhere. i kind of have a problem with the fear mongering going on about the tariffs. convincing everybody that their lives are going to change to the tune of $1200 a month in the next coming months is kind of rough to be doing around christmas time. it is not going to affect people as much as they think it does. it is meant to get you to buy things made in the u.s. i have replaced three keurig

coffee machines the last three years, but i should have bought the one made in america that is only $120. do some research and find your american-made products, and you would be surprised. a lot of that money is going to help your neighbors, people that work at factories. host: that was sean in maine. looking at the national retail federation and what they are expecting people to spend on holiday shopping this year, 2024, $902, a record. the next closest amount was $886 in 2019, pre-pandemic. it says nearly all u.s. adults, 90 2%, plan to celebrate winter holidays such as christmas, hanukkah, or kwanzaa this year, in line with 2023.

45% of holiday shoppers plan to browse and buy items before november, consistent with recent years, up from 40% 10 years ago. top reason for early shopping includes spreading out their budget, 59% said that. avoiding the stress of last-minute shopping, 45% had that response. avoiding crowds, 42%. and perusing prices or promotions that cannot be missed, 42%. it says despite the early start, most consumers, 62%, anticipate finishing the shopping in december. a few minutes left. next is thomas in michigan, says yes. caller: good morning. how are you? host: doing well. caller: it is going to affect me a little bit, not a whole lot. your dollar is not going as far. we just had the worst four years

out of the economy as far as groceries and everything else. so your dollar is not going as far. as far as the tariffs, hoover, one of the great presidents, pulled us out of the great depression with tariffs. 1932 construction emergency act, and there was another one. so i think the fear mongering should stop. it is really piped up. the problem is we just went through the worst four years, from 325,000 children lost of the southern border to the highest grocery prices ever. so that is my opinion. i appreciate you guys for letting me view it. host: scott in illinois says no. good morning. caller: good morning. i would like to wish the world a merry christmas, the birth of jesus. i just want to say, when we grew up, we did not get a lot of toys

and a lot of gifts and things like this. but what we did is we would build forts with blankets on the kitchen table and we made things. now it is just buy, buy, buy. i have five great-grandchildren, and we had christmas a couple years ago and everybody bought toys and things, the kids played with the boxes in the kitchen. they did not care about the toys. what i recommend people is check your garage is, check your basements. we are americans, everything is filled. i am not saying give away your old stuff, but americans have been spoiled for their whole life here we just have so much stuff. it is just crazy. so go back to peace again in the world. let's have some common sense again. host: bonnie in pennsylvania says no. good morning.

bonnie, are you there? we will give bonnie one more opportunity. looks like we do not have bonnie. call us back, bonnie. one more article from this morning's washington times. black friday's history tells the story of holiday shopping mayhem , says hoping to entice equivocating consumers, retailers have already spent weeks bombarding customers with early offers, clicking on countless emo's promising huge savings, tens of millions of u.s. shoppers are expected to spend money on black friday itself this year. industry forecast estimates 183.4 million people will shop in u.s. stores and online between thanksgiving and cyber monday, according to the national retail federation and

consumer research firm proper insights and analytics. of that number, 131.7 million are expected to shop on black friday, today. the term black friday is several generations old, but it was not always associated with the holiday retail frenzy that we know today. a market crash in the past was notably dubbed black friday, used in relation to shopping day after thanksgiving is most often traced to philadelphia in the mid 20th century when police and other city workers had to deal with large crowds i congregated before the annual army-navy football game to take advantage of sales. black friday is today, and we will continue talking about the issue of black friday and consumer confidence and holiday spending next with cnbc retail

and consumer reporter alyssa repko. she will joint -- melissa repko. and later in the program, arms control association executive director daryl kimball will join us to discuss changes to russia's nuclear doctrine and how it could impact its allies. we will be right back. ♪ >> kickstart your holiday shopping season and avoid the crowds with c-span during our black friday sale going on right now at c-spanshop.org. save up to 30% off on hoodies, sweatshirts, >> kickstarter your -- kick start your holiday shopping with c-span's black friday sale going on now. save up to 30% off sitewide,

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nixon committed criminal acts, ordering the water great break-in. he teaches at brown university. >> with his book "the presidents and the people: five leaders who threaten democracy and the citizens who fought to defend it." on this episode of book notes plus. book notes plus is available at c-span.com or wherever you get your podcasts. >> american history tv, saturdays on c-span two, exploring the people and events that tell the american story. this weekend at 2:00 p.m. eastern, conversations with veterans and historians on world war ii. hear from merchant marines, the last rosie the riveter, soldiers of the korean war, holocaust survivors in more. and at 9:30, dennis quaid

portrays ronald reagan in the film "reagan,"nd hosts a discussion. the story is told between the eyes of a kb g agent and based on the soviet union of us face real live surveillance of ronald reagan. the event feature from the film. exploring the american story, watch american history tv saturdays on c-span two and find a full schedule on your program guide or watch online, any time at c-span.org/history. >> "washington journal" continues. host: joining us now to discuss consumer economy competence is melissa repko. welcome to the program. guest: thanks for having me. host: you are a retail consumer reporter for cnbc.

what are retailers expecting this holiday shopping season? guest: holiday shopping is expected to rise by 2.5% to 3.5% according to the national retail federation, more muted than last year when it went up by three point 9%, but still amounts to almost $980 billion at the starting range. this is a significant sum of money and still expected to rise year-over-year significantly, even though it wasn't quite as high as of last year's predictions. host: what has changed from last year to this year? guest: one thing i've heard from walmart, target, home depot and companies that reported earnings in the past two weeks is that consumers have been consistent, looking for deals and being selective and choosing to spend in some areas and pull back in others. it is the mentality that it remains sticky because of inflation. people got used to things getting higher and have made it

trade-offs. they may be willing to splurge on a new outfit but in other ways looking to save and holding back until the very best deals. host: today is black friday. it does the same impact with consumers that it used to? guest: years ago, we would see crowds line up at malls and stores and trying to get in for the flat screen tv and consumer electronics and not a lot of that shopping has shifted on line but deals do matter, especially in a year when consumers are being choosy and waiting until they see the item they want on sale. that makes retailers lean into the promotional moments. what i heard from the best buy ceo, people expect to see more peaks and valleys throughout the holiday season because during the events, 20% come 30% 40% off and are willing to spend but wait until the next promotional

event. that is why days like black friday and cyber monday are important in this environment. host: what kind of mood are holiday shoppers in? are they looking to get deals right now or planning to wait? how did they feel about the holiday this year? guest: one difference of the calendar is there are five fewer days this year between thanksgiving and christmas and while that might feel very subtle in a year when people still have the same number of relatives to shop for, they will cram that shopping into potentially a shorter amount of time. they may have shopped in october but that was the distraction from the election. market research company found that during the election people pull back on spending and they may be trying to cram more spending into a short amount of time this year, so maybe seeing more rush shipping or curbside

pickup as people try to get all of the things checked off of their guest and gift list. host: our guest, melissa repko, consumer reporter. we are talking about consumer confidence and this year's holiday at retail expectations. the lines for the segment are broken down regionally. if you are in eastern or central time zone, the line is (202) 748-8000. if you are in the mountain or pacific time zone, it is (202) 748-8001. it is black friday, just the start of a long holiday shopping weekend. there is a small business saturday tomorrow, cyber monday beginning next week. where are americans during their holiday shopping this year? guest: it is a mixed bag.

a lot of shoppers start searching for deals online and then fulfill the orders at the store. curbside pickup has become a meaningful peace. people will buy online and pick up at the store later maybe when they are picking up groceries and that shopping behaviors don't look the same and that is why you don't see the same doorbusters we sought years ago because a lot of people can do research from home and place the order and get it and not even leave their car and have them dropped off. host: how are retailers approaching the black friday and holiday shopping season? is it a profitable time for them and how are they -- what are they looking for when it comes to promotions and sales? guest: where the dynamics we will see is retailers spoke about challenges with warmer weather over the past month and they saw the cold snap not quite hit and they have a lot of

apparel, sweaters, coats and i anticipate we will see a lot of the sales on those kinds of winter items during the black friday it deals but also going into cyber monday as they try to offload inventory. many of them spoke about that and decided they want to get rid of those types of items. the other thing best buy said was that freddy is always promotional. this is a big time for consumer electronics. consumers looking for airpods, televisions. this is the time when they want to promote the best deals throughout the weekend to try to get people to pick consumer electronics over other types of gifts like gift cards and experiences which have been in high demand from customers. host: we have the moody's senior economist on the program on wednesday and he was talking about why people aren't feeling positive about the economy despite strong indicators.

we want to play this and we will get your reaction. [video clip] >> there is a disconnect from the happy talk to hear from economists like me and surveys. i think at the top of the list is the previously high inflation. if you go back two or three years ago, prices were rising for groceries, rents, gasoline, the direct result of the disruptions created by the pandemic and the war in ukraine. even though the prices are no longer rising, gas prices are down and rent hasn't moved into years and grocery prices are flat but they are still up 25% from where they were two to four years ago. when i'm asking, i'm getting the same answers that everyone has one food item they buy on a regular basis that they use as a litmus test for how things are going.

ramen noodles or colucci -- colucci tea.politics are fractured. people are very heated about the political perspective and they are looking at the economy through the political prism. a survey written every month, they just released the most recent results and just after the election, went from being very pessimistic about the economy too optimistic and the democrats just the opposite. we look to our own political prism and how we think about things. host: melissa, one of the things he was talking about there is inflation. how is that impacting how much or what consumers are buying and how is it also impacting

retailers? guest: mark' as comments are on point. i've heard it from both retail leaders and consumers at grocery stores in malls. food inflation may be coming down and it is now at single-digit level so back to more historic levels. that being said, it is more expensive to buy milk, eggs and so many other things that it was compared to pre-pandemic. what that means is as the grocery bill is higher, people have to make cuts elsewhere and where they are cutting is in more of the wants versus needs preevent from walmart, home depot and target. they are buying just the subsidies. when they are paying more for paper towels and shampoo, the things they need for everyday routine, that means they can't spend as much on a new outfit or a beauty item. so they look for ways to trim back the budget.

we are seeing that play out and going into the holiday season, it is one of the rare moments when retailers get to spend more discretionary. walmart has noticed 11 quarters in a row general merchandise, the stuff out so -- outside of hussle and groceries, was down for 11 quarters straight. for the past two quarters they have seen some slight uptick which may indicate consumers are feeling a little more ready to spend on the wants versus needs. but there is still pressure on that. it is a rare moment when retailers can encourage people to buy things like toys or beauty items or new clothing because they are looking for gifts than they otherwise would be. host: we have callers waiting. we will start with california. good morning. are you there?

one more time, are you there in san rafael, california? go ahead and give us a call back if you stepped away from your phone. i wanted to show you the recent headlines from articles that you have written. one, target shares plunged 21% after discounter cut forecasts, posts biggest earnings miss into years. in other come walmart hikes the outlook again as shoppers spend more outside the grocery aisle. and another one, home depot sales are improving but it says consumers are still cautious about spending. a little bit of a retail roller coaster going through some of those. explain how companies are making forecasts and what is causing them to change their expectations. guest: we have seen a huge amount of variation and seeing

distinct winners and losers in this environment, walmart being one of the winners. it is been known for a value and has lean into it. target cells a lot of discretionary, a lot of things that are still under pressure were households are cutting back. if they are buying fewer throw pillows and sweaters and toys, lipsticks, that means target will feel it more than walmart which sells more groceries and everyday items. with home depot, dealing with a dynamic affecting a lot of retail. housing turnover has been slow and remains high cost that has been very inflationary during this time. that means when there are fewer homes on sale and if you putting the rooms on the market, they are not taking on the same level of projects they would normally be with painting and fixing it up to put it on the market or fixing up they bite the home and move in so we are seeing that trickle through the whole retail space because even places like

target are seeing the art for selling fewer home goods, from kitchen items, small efficient items to things like a new towels or at linens because people tend to buy those things more they are stocking a new or refreshing government. host: is there in a pact to consumers when a company it may change their forecast? guest: when companies change the forecast, it affects the stock market and how investors feel about that but often it is responding to where consumers are spending and where they are skipping and target has felt consumer skipping in a lot of categories throughout the store and that is reflecting. they've noticed and felt the impact of pull back on housing turnover in home depot and lowe 's. there was a lot of outside spending on homes during the pandemic and we see that even in

consumer electronics. best buy has spoken about how they are still dealing with how people but somebody home supplies during the pandemic years and they are big purchases they don't make it takes place for the recycling to take place. you are seeing that go through the whole retail economy but most importantly we are seeing the dynamic of spending more on needs versus wants. so until people feel more comfortable with the amount of money in the wall if will spend as freely on those discretionary items. host: patrick in maryland, good morning. caller: you don't think the prices are dropping because america has noticed a marketing hype so the error put off by the

hype. and not only that, demographically, which is populating more? looking at the housing market, who are you marketing to? are you able to afford the homes but why has the housing market just been building, building, a building but not waiting for the population to catch up and now you have the empty homes the consumer can't buy. depending on which class is able to afford houses, it is the middle and lower classes populating more and they are not going to be able to afford target so they go to the lowered areas, t.j. maxx, target and of the others are higher at middle class of populations that are able to go to stores. so the demographic has changed

toward the lower side of things and not only that, over population but in what areas. you can't sell to those consumers. host: we will get a response from melissa. guest: it is a good point that t.j. maxx and those catering to value have seen growth and they are not just seeing growth from middle and lower income families, the walmart ceo has told me consistently over the past quarters that the biggest market share gains are coming from households that make $100,000 per year and more. that means even upper income consumers and americans are looking for better deals when it comes to groceries and everyday items. we are also seeing on the housing side one the biggest dynamics is high interest rates. as high interest rates continues , mortgage rates have remained high and people are waiting on the sidelines to buy a home

because they want a better mortgage rate and a lot of americans have already been locked into a low mortgage rate and don't want to move to a bigger home if that means they have to give up the low mortgage . so that is one of the challenging dynamics. the two largest generations are at millennials and baby boomers and we have seen a lot of aging boomers age in place. so the two largest art competing for the same. there are a couple different dynamics at play here. host: kyle in reno, nevada. good morning. caller: i have what i hope to be a very simple question. i am a disabled veteran, so is my personal economics growth, my growth is only what cola invited

and i'm not allowed to have a job. so i have never seen prices come backwards toward my disposable outcome. i don't live in an upper class but what mechanisms can any administration or agency do to actually let me feel like i am getting to use more of my disposable income. year-over-year my rent has gone up because no one is buying houses and i would like to see your opinions on that side as well. guest: that is a very good point. the ghost to the category of everyday needs. as people spend more on housing, that means they are not able to spend as much on discretionary and it sounds like what you are dealing with as well.

it is complicated. and when things go up on things from a bag of potato chips to a sweater, they are rare to come back down. we are seeing a little bit of a reversal with some categories. consumer electronics, tv's have gotten much cheaper. a lot of consumer electronics have gone down in price and part of that is because people are buying them at the same level so retailers had to move the prices back down for the general merchandise that people have been more resistant to spring for it. that said, we are still seeing higher prices and target has been making dramatic cuts and put up some weak quarterly earnings reports and they are trying to take prices down on thousands of items and hoping people come in because they see that a lot of items are cheaper than they used to. that said, i haven't compared the prices had with the pre-pandemic in my suspicion is

they are still higher than 2019. so the cost of living has gone up across the board and that is why you are seeing people make trade-offs. host: something we have heard from callers earlier this morning is bringing a president elect trump's potential of tariffs on canada. however he kills responding to that possibility and how could it impact consumers? guest: tariffs come up repeatedly on calls. i have spoken to the best buy ceo about this. i spoke to the plumber cfo about this and across the board, unfortunately they say any tariff will increase their costs which means the costs have to be passed on one way or another peer to the walmart cfo told me they may be forced to raise prices on the items because there are some items that come from china or other parts of the world that are difficult to make in the u.s.. same for consumer electronics.

best buy was saying almost every consumer electronic is made outside of the u.s. and very hard to look something like that overnight so that mate mean that prices go up on a lot of items that people buy in one of the challenges they mentioned is across-the-board retails and consumers are focused on inflation and they want the process to come back down and tears could move it in the opposite direction and could be another inflationary cap going forward. -- inflationary aspect going forward. host: kitty is next. caller: i want to understand why we have to spend so much time buying. i am 75 years old and on social security and i have everything

that i need and my friends and family have everything that they need. and everyone tells me and everybody is telling everybody, don't give me anything. nobody wants and deeming -- wants anything. i do live in boulder, colorado, and i live in senior housing. i am on social security. however, i am from west virginia.

i can't understand why it is we have to buy all of the time. host: we will get a response from melissa. guest: that is a fair point that we are hearing some backlash in the younger generations. gen z and millennials have shifted towards preferring experience versus goods which is a new challenge for retailers because they are trying to sell stuff and if people don't want to things and they want experiences, then they have to not only sell gift cards but try to do items that go with those things, so selling a tent if someone is going to go camping. we are seeing a bit of that dynamic especially because of the needs versus wants to trade off. i was speaking to an analyst and he said one prediction about the holiday season is he thinks a lot of people will be looking for practical gifts, things like

socks and things like beauty products, shampoo and items that are consumable because a lot of people have a lot of stuff and during a time when they are making trade-offs on how to spend, they want something they can't use it versus something that will collect dust on the shelf or another item of clothing that will remain in the closet with the tags on. so we are seeing this shift in the younger shoppers that may be want to go for a trip instead of getting a bunch of items under the tree. host: derek in illinois, good morning. caller: good morning, u.s.. the situation is only going to get worse. people want you to consume their products fighting to having a $15 minimum wage and hour. that is a growth of $28,008. it is just not enough to keep up

with raising the prices. i am not sure with the poverty line is put people trying to live off of $17,000 a year. it doesn't matter. i don't buy much of anything because i don't have disposable income like that, i am too busy trying to put food on the table and a roof over my head but i see it only getting worse. guest: that is a challenge i have heard from plenty of other shoppers that they feel like it is hard to keep up with the cost of living and it is a reality that has benefited walmart in some ways as they have had more of the value focus and we have really heard that from the dollar store retailers. dollar general and dollar tree are two companies known for catering to shoppers with less

disposable income. not only do they have lower prices but smaller packaging so you can get a smaller bottle of laundry detergent or smaller box of cookies or things like that and they felt pinched because so many consumers make a very low incomes, $30,000 or less a year. so every dollar it really counts in those other retailers that notice a change in traffic as they get later in the month and people run out of money to buy things with peers so that is a good example of retailers that have felt the pinch because they cater to lower income consumers and a lot of wii tell workers are restaurant workers on minimum wage. host: next up is carol in texas. caller: thank you c-span for taking my call. i wanted to bring up to topics. one is, you seem to know about a

lot of retailers and corporations that own the retailers. are they preparing to see about 3%, the minimum number, 11 million of the u.s. population be deported? because that is what they are talking about coming up as we will deport at least 11 million people and that is going to be, i could foresee that these people aren't rich. they are going to be the shoppers at discount houses and the lower-priced retailers. are those retailers preparing for this route and the second thing is, there is in a avian virus, a flu virus amongst birds that has now gone from avian to

bovine and they're starting to find the virus in milk. vaccines exist for this virus but the vaccines are being used to keep from having to exterminate the chicken flock in the avian flock in the united states because we lost huge numbers of birds in houses here in the united states when the bird flu hit. and he didn't now if you look at, eggs are more none the most expensive things in the price has not come down but keeps going up. anything made with eggs you can imagine it will be more expensive so i wanted to get a comment on those two subjects. guest: you are right that eggs has been one of the inflation categories that have state height and that is one things i have heard grocers talk about

because it is something that shoppers are used to buying and they buy milk and they know prices of those items that are always on their shopping list and that is definitely one of the inflationary items that has remained sticky. another thing that has remained sticky on the grocery side is a lot of the packaged goods that tend to have more brand recognition, national brands, think cereals, cookies and even sodas have stayed high because those consumer packaged good companies have been resisted taking the prices back down. i would say eggs and the middle isles in the grocery store have been sticky. i've not heard retailers talk about retail policies. they have talked more about tariffs because that may be something that comes up sooner. president-elect trump quoted on -- posted on truth social that

he plans to put the tears in place soon after his inauguration's that will be some of the near-term challenges retailers may be thinking about. we heard from companies like steven madden, a footwear maker, they are accelerating moving production and more imports out of china to anticipate the tariffs. i would say that tariffs have been one of the top themes of a lot of retailer discussions as they try to anticipate the next administration. host: lets go from team. caller: i have a daughter that lives in texas and i believe what is hurting for the most, she lives in a loft apartment and she is a pain $1300 a month and they keep going up on her rent and that is what is throwing her from behind.

we have cute sometimes send her money to pay rent because the apartment complex people is going up every three months on the rent. if it is illegal, i would like to have some tell me what to do because that is what is keeping her down, her rent. it is going up every three months i would say. it is not going up like $50 it is hundred dollars going up on her rent. host: melissa? guest: housing is a huge expense for american families and definitely something we are hearing across the board that has remained very inflationary. in an environment where housing is low and mortgage is high, people are choosing to rent longer because they are not able

to buy or waiting to buy until mortgage rates come down and that means there is high demand for rent and landlords are able to increase the rent because there is so much demand. the innate feel that if you leave they will find someone else and so it does create a challenge for a lot of people and not just for your daughter but a lot of people around the country. if they are getting those increases they will have to cut back in other areas. the hope is that with the federal reserve bringing down interest rates that mortgage rates will come down and if more people can move into homes again and are willing to buy, in theory that should means there are fewer renters and it should bring rents down but it takes time for this. i've asked home depot and lowe's about this but they weren't willing to tell me when they predict the housing market will pick up again and that ripples through the whole system, not just the real estate market with

the renting market as well. host: maurice in dallas, texas. caller: thank you for having me. i do hear a lot of speaking to the economy from different sectors and industries and things of that nature. we are talking about the cci and ppi but they all have different factors. one of the underlying factors that continues to happen is when we talk about the technology curve. it happens every four years. every time industries reset, new market makers. someone takes a law. everyone has to adjust. we are all going to have highs and lows during this time. we have ai and automation affecting a lot of things and

not only that, speaking to the actual rates from the fed, that was already spoken a couple months ago that the fed itself wasn't looking for any decreases as time of year but if you see lower rates than we are seeing a dial back. they were looking for us to dial back but we are in the global economy and what we do here globally affects nationally. everybody is suffering and trying to find our way into a new world. we have a new president and markets are going to react. i don't really have any comments as far as the tariffs are not tariffs but one thing for sure is business across the water is just as important as business

here. we knew -- need to do things to bring actual production here locally and increase jobs here. and that is not in support of trump or biden or kamal but just speaking to the fact. host: melissa? guest: it is noisy and complicated and something i hear again and again from retailers. a lot of dynamics from two major hurricanes closing down stores and causing demand to shift to things like tariffs being proposed. a lot of different factors driving businesses. when you mentioned was artificial intelligence and that is something we are hearing more even on the consumer products site. best buy the reason why they are expecting the cycle to pick up again is ai enabled devices like

phones and laptops and having more ai features that people might be using for school, work, everyday life. that is changing the labor market and what kinds of devices people want to have and use. and we live in a very global world which makes the terrace very complicated. i spoke to the head of a major footwear association and he said it is a really challenging for footwear companies to navigate this environment. he said since the early to thousands, a lot of companies have been trying to out of china, not just because of the threat of tariffs coming that they didn't know about at the time but because a lot of people in china don't want to work in factories and they were diversifying to other parts of the world work people were still willing to make shoes. and it is hard to move them back to the u.s. even if the tariff goes in place. it is a complicated supply chain you have to move to another

place. that is just an example of how we are so global and a lot of us as customers realized how complicated the supply chain is when we were waiting for things like couches to arrive during the pandemic. we saw that a lot of the goods we buy come from miles and miles or an ocean away and there is a reality that these jobs are hard to move overnight even if there is a tariff in place that might motivate a company to rethink how they make a good. host: just a few minutes left with our guest, melissa repko. up next is anthony in arizona. caller: happy holidays, happy thanksgiving, happy new year. supply and demand of flex all of us. businesses definitely cannot make money if we are not buying and if we are not buying they are going to reduce the price.

i will use the simple example, if you needed shoes and you went out and bought one pair of shoes and wore them every day, you probably will wear them out quicker than if you bought two pair of shoes, high-quality and alternated them each day, they would last longer. so for most of us, we are marketed to television or whatever to buy and buy because it makes us feel good. and once we understand that is what has taken our financial and mental resources, then we lose. so i want your guest to address how when we don't buy, prices go down and even fluent it comes to housing, if we have to live with

someone for six months or a year and move together to save money, rent is going to come down. so please address supply and demand. guest: report -- your point about supply and demand is good. we have seen that in the general merchandises people are buying as much, like with televisions and even with appliances, people aren't buying kitchen appliances the way they were in the height of the pandemic so you are seeing retailers and brands forced to cut the prices as they have less demand and a lot of supply. we have seen that play out in some categories, particularly with consumer electronics. with housing, there is a shortage of supply in the country. this is something you hear home depot and lowe's talk about repeatedly. if you talk to anyone in the real estate business they will tell you that so that is the reason why we are seeing the interesting dynamic or mortgage

rates are high and people are moving and yet the prices of homes are still very high. stinking with print. there is not enough housing to go around and very aging inventory of housing in the u.s. so there is pressure on people to pay more for rent and homes because of that housing shortage here that is what is a little different about the supply and demand dynamic on the housing side versus on consumer electronics and some of the retail categories where we have seen prices go down. host: michael in arizona. caller: good morning. i want to make this real quick. it is common sense foiled. common sense to pipeline, shipping and handling, trucking or to drive the diesel prices

and half where they belong and everything in this country will drop. small businesses are just devastated by what is happening and it is all up shipping and handling. that is all i want to say. trucking, drop the price of diesel. trump knows. common sense. the pipeline, all that stuff. natural gas, give me a break. america, we are going to get better. trump is back. host: melissa? guest: energy is not my specialty. retail is what i focus on but on the consumer side, gas prices have actually been down and that has been one silver lining for retailers that as people spend less on gas which is an everyday need for a lot of people.

that doesn't mean they have more money in their pocket. some retail analyst talk about one reason walmart may be doing to little better than that dollar stores is historically the dollar stores are closer. but when gas is cheaper, people might be willing to drive further to the walmart and gas doesn't factor it so much into the decision. on the consumer side, i don't know much about the diesel prices and what it means for trucking but on the consumer side, gas prices have remained low and that is a good thing for the american pocketbook. host: nisi in southfield, michigan. caller: i have a question as far

as they want to devalue the dollar and what problems will that cause for the american consumers and if they do devalue the dollar, are they trying to replace it with crypto coins? because only elon musk made the increase of his crypto coins just the other day. so if they devalue the dock -- the dollar, i just want to know the effect here and around the world. guest: that would be a question better suited for an economist with me. it is hard to predict how that would play out. it is not really driving a change in consumer buying patterns or retailers behavior. the biggest changes retailers have been navigating is trying to keep the shoppers who are

shifting between shopping online and in stores and that is a dynamic they're trying to face is how do you cater to a consumer shopping in different ways than they used to. the pandemic definitely accelerated that when people were charted -- starting to adopt curbside pickup and expecting faster deliveries. i would say that is the bigger factor for retailers in cryptocurrency. host: melissa repko is a retail consumer reporter with cnbc. you can watch her on cnbc and find her work online. thank you so much for being with us this morning. guest: thank you for having me. happy holidays. host: coming up, the arms association director will join us and talk about changes to the u.s. -- russian doctrine and how it could affect the u.s. and allies. you n start calling in now.

democrats, (202) 748-8000, puicans, and independents (202) 748-8002. we will be right back. >> sunday on q and a, the author of "my two lives," talks about surviving nazi germany and the eight steps to contain his identity and the steps is jewish mother was arrested by the gestapo. >> right around the corner from where we lived, i saw all kinds of gestapo in front of the building. this was a large building and there were many families in there.

my brother and i decided that rather than going in and going there with all of these gestapo people, we waited on the corner and watched it from there and we decided tosk our mother as to why they were there and with the gestapo was doing there and once they were to leave we would ask our mother. after a while, to our surprise, it was my mother they were freeing out of the building. and they took her away. >> with his book, "my two lives," on c-span's q and a. you can listen to all of our podcasts on our free c-span now app >> >>.

book tv, every sunday on c-span two features leading authors discussing their latest nonfiction books. here is a look at what is coming up this weekend. at 8:30 a.m. eastern, the former california congressman christopher cox takes a critical look at the life and presidency of woodrow wilson in his book "woodrow wilson: the light withdrawn." and in our about books section, the book "gather me," about the books that inspired her and shaped her book club. at 8:00 p.m. eastern, book tv presents coverage of the national book awards hosted by the national book foundation in the word celebrate the best literature published in the united states. kate mckinnon authored -- posted it. watch book tv every sunday on c-span2 and find a full schedule on your program guide or watch

online any time at book tv.org. >> "washington journal" continues. host: welcome back here for the next 25 minutes we are in open forum. you can start calling in now. the lines if you are a democrat (202) 748-8000, republicans (202) 748-8001, and independents (202) 748-8002. we will start with carol in clarksville, tennessee, line four democrats. caller: good morning. i had several things to speak to what i will speak to them one at that time. about the economy, that is a buzzword that i found during the elections that people he didn't really understand what that meant. and when i asked them to define the economy they couldn't.

it is a buzzword that people couldn't speak to and we need to have an economics class and ate a civics class for everybody to find out more about it as we move from that 2024 election that we have another election in 2026. and the other thing i have is, we talk about the consumers and used to work at the university and i always tell professors the students were here -- that we were there because of the students and not the other way around. if we didn't have any students we wouldn't have a university. so we had to get people off of their high horse about saying me, me, me and it should have

been we, weak, we are. and we must continue to work together to make this union a better union. the last thing i would like to say is i keep a roster on my wall of the representatives and senators. i call periodically and i will say i'm not your constituents but because you will the office of senator or representative, you are my representative because whenever you vote it affects me as it does everybody else, even though i may not be in that particular party. so thank you. host: ernest in philadelphia, pennsylvania, line for independents. good morning. caller: i am calling about the situation in lebanon.

i was watching a program and it showed that israel was telling people to move out and they were demolishing the towns and it has been not broadcast. it is terrible, you are telling people to move for they are -- from where they are and they come back in their homes are blown up. that is a terrible things to do. host: robert in louisiana, line port democrats. caller: i just want to make a statement about the terms "black friday if they don't know what it means. it is the day after thanksgiving when the slave owners hold off the slaves. i wish everyone who was life that had common sense, do not shop on black friday. host: this headline in the washington times, senators call for disaster aid to be a

priority after destruction in the southeast and this is a bipartisan group of senators looking for disaster aid to be one of the first addressed as congress gets back from thanksgiving break saying the aid budget is running out after to obtain her -- after two hurricanes struck in the southeast. both georgia democrats and mark warner and tim kaine and democrats in virginia, they wrote a robust appropriations bill and it goes on to say the barton administration requested nearly 100 billion for disaster aid relief from congress earlier this month to help cover the two hurricanes. the largest portion of the money, roughly $40 billion would be set aside for the fema disaster relief fund and would help with debris removal, public

infrastructure repair and financial assistance. the rest of the money would be for farmers who lost crops or livestock and for the department of housing and urban development. the federal emergency management had said that the backpack hurricanes have depleted the agency fund and said the disaster relief fund is down to less than $5 billion after shelling out nearly $8 billion in assistance with the two hurricanes. she said the agency has had more than 100 disasters. that they are still funding for recovery. back to your calls, orlando, on the line for republicans. caller: i would like to see some deregulation. i would like to see our government to stop imposing all

the different tariffs and finds on us. i don't know if they call them tariffs but the government pretty much prints the money so i don't know why they feel they have to take the money back from us after we worked for it. i would like to see lower taxes and i would like to see our government really just let us run this country likely to anyway. we run the country but they just impose the rules and regulations that slow us down. i would like for our country to stop giving money to other countries and let the american people do what we do. host: gym in schenectady, new york, line four democrats. -- jim in schenectady, new york, line for democrats. caller: i would like to call up

-- talk about the cost of living. i would like for it to go down with i don't think it will. in my mind, don't is the worst. he is out for himself. but for the people on minimum wage and have large families, they need to have the cost of living go down. i don't know how to control it. i worked for ge for 30 two years. they never paid one penny of income tax. they pay sales taxes, they don't pay income tax. so they are getting away with a lot. and a lot of the big companies are. and as far as i am concerned, trump is happy. he will let them get away with it.

but the stock went from when i retired from $66 share and thank they got a good ceo and it is up to 194 now. so somebody is doing something right, -- up to a night -- host: is robin, line for democrats. caller: i have so much to say, the supreme court that ruled that donald trump is above the law, they ought to be fired. it is just totally ridiculous. and we have a non-law-abiding person that has been elected for president, a felon and sexual predator. what is wrong with america? there is something wrong. how can he and the people he is trying to elect have security clearances when half of them are

sexual predators and criminals? is he able mob leader. what is wrong with you, america, you don't want to have abortion or women's rights and you don't want the mexicans. host: randy in michigan, line for democrats. caller: the fix is in. we have all of the information in. my whole life i've been trying to get this information. in the last two years with 9340 alcohol driving accidents in michigan, 2200, all drug them ws methamphetamines. now we are down to 1600. we found out that 400 of them were robitussin, and that is alcohol under the drug category. we will show you exactly how many potheads got into driving accidents in 2022 and 2023.

should we turn alcohol into felons and take away their houses and land and hand them to the potheads like we did to the drunks? all the years we handed them to the drunks. the fix is in. 19,000 people took 4000, all drugs, now what is the problem? host: edna in chicago, illinois. line for democrats. caller: good morning. what are the american people going to realize that donald trump is not a politician? he has always been an actor. and these poor hispanic people that are voters, you better start packing because he will do what he said he will do. and i feel sorry for them because a lot of them do not understand what he was saying at his rallies. he was telling them what he was going to do. and they still voted for him.

pack your suitcase is because you will be on your way out. host: edna in chicago, illinois. this on the front page of the " washington post" and the headline on the screen, mexico's president has an excellent talk with trump and the article says that the mexican president and the president-elect agreed in a phone call that the countries will have a good relationship. and she dismissed his threats to impose a 25 percent tariff on mexico exports if it did not stop the flow of migrants and fentanyl to the united states. she said that they will not be a potential tariff war that she told to reporters in her daily news conference. they have given dramatically different versions of the call wednesday. trump set on his truth social platform that she had agreed to stop migration through mexico

which would mean effectively closing our southern border immediately. that prompted a response late wednesday. mexico's stance is not to close borders but to build bridges." it goes on to say that "both leaders said that the conversation was positive. trump said it was wonderful and she said that there -- that she agreed that there would be a good relationship it is unclear if the terror threat would -- had subsided. she said that they did not broach the subject." up next, tom in woodbridge, california. line for republicans. caller: actually it is woodbridge, virginia. host: i apologize. caller: it is ok. i do not like to use the term trumped arrangement syndrome, but it is lunacy when you get these people. and republicans that are listening you need to call in on

the morning to get some balance back on c-span because liberals will call in constantly and they do not have an effects, but they will just defame everybody. just because trump is in does not mean that you give up the fight. donald trump is not even in office yet and the president of mexico is agreeing to cut down the immigration flow and cut down the fentanyl. in israel, they already started peace talks. and i believe that in ukraine and i work in the department of defense and the intelligence community. i believe that putin and zelinski will try to work out a deal because they know that he will not play games with them. and he will not play games with the illegal immigrants or with the criminal drug cartels. these are huge tidal shifts in

american power in the world and it is because of the corruption of the democrat party that we have got drawn into two major wars in the last four years. in these democrats do not take responsibility for that. we are talking about tens of thousands of people's lives and millions of people displaced and you are happy about that. and trump comes in on a promise to end all of that and you say he is the crazy one. you say he is hitler and a fascist. he has tried to bring peace and sanity back to the world. we have transgender day in grade school. and you guys are celebrating that. you celebrate the murder of your own children with abortion. we are just trying to say do not get pregnant and you do not have to have an unwanted pregnancy and you do not have to have an abortion.

we are responsible human being, how about that? i am begging everybody out there, we have got to change our local electorate over the next four years. everybody needs to put all of their time and resources into getting these lunatics out of our civil institutions. we have got to get them out of there. anybody promoting rampant abortion, promoting war, promoting the fact that let's just bring everybody into the world into the united states and give them free housing, food, and education, and free health care. and then we have the people in north carolina, the people in north carolina, two hurricanes hit and they are like here is a couple of hundred bucks to hold you over. they have lost their homes, businesses and pets, and their whole community and you are not talking about that.

the democrats are not talking about the suffering going on in their own country or the housing crisis created because you invited 20 million illegal immigrants into the country. you guys have lost your mind. we have got to get some sanity back into civil discourse. host: that was tom in virginia. stephen in illinois, line for independents. good morning. caller: the last caller kind of took some of my thunder. but, just like in chicago, the mayor asked for a $3 million property tax. everybody is complaining about that because they have 60,000 immigrants and when you have 50,000 more people buying one banana or a dozen eggs or anything like that, the prices are going to go up.

the prices will go up because of the property taxes. they will go up because more people are trying to get houses. americans are not getting houses, the immigrants are. our taxes are paying for the immigrants. they will not work for another two or three years because they are all lower wage jobs. and we have to find jobs for them. they are not doctors, lawyers or professionals. they do not have the consumer skills and they are not bilingual. people, get your head out of your butt. host: that was stephen in illinois. nancy, wake forest, north carolina. line for democrats. good morning. caller: hello, how are you. i am a republican. i am sorry.

this -- i am sorry. stop funding the nih, let's help these animals. please. thank you for listening. and let's help these animals, please. host: that was nancy in north carolina. another headline in "usa today. trump name spohn special envoy for ukraine and russia. "he nominated keith kellogg to beat the special envoy of ukraine and russia, a role aimed at finding a resolution to a war russia started nearly three years ago and trump previously said he could end in a day. the incoming president has discussed -- have discussed deep crit tessa kept a schism about sending the age. it would require ukraine to

participate in peace talks with russia in order to continue receiving aid. the plan was put forward by kellogg and fred fleitz last spring. he was the successor as chief of staff for the national security special -- security council. nato membership for ukraine could also be on the table callow told usa today in an interview on over the summer -- kellogg told usa today in an interview over the summer." caller: good morning. i have never seen prices so high. i remember when you could -- all of this stuff going up. they are ruining the country with that mess. i tell you. and they worry about the mexicans coming across the border.

they do not swim in the river, they crossed the bridge. people have put louise down the river to stop them. they will cross the bridge all day long. at the 50 mourn -- mild checkpoint they are supposed to get checked there. host: maria in palmdale, california. line for independents. in morning. hello. caller: hallow -- hello. yes, i echo all of those calls. i called because there is a different topic about the hispanics voting for republicans and have now they are going to get deported and i thought she is so stupid. noncitizens cannot vote. so obviously the illegal aliens did not vote. so all of the illegal aliens are going to get deported.

and this state of mind is ridiculous because what they have been doing to this country is insane. i am happy that the people that trump is nominated -- nominating are very pro-american. and they are going to do something to restore our lives here. it has been insane and embarrassing. i called c-span like last year and i was complaining about the border. even though i am mexican and i have a green card. i complained about the border because these elites do not understand that the poor people are the ones that have to share. they are so stupid, they do not give it -- get it. they live in a different world and i am so glad that so many people in america feel the same way i do because a democrat was

-- i cannot believe these people and what they have done and what they expected us as citizens of america to accept. you know the way they did their politics was associating. the way they kept everyone in the dark, the way that joe biden did not do interviews. she is so dumb. it is so insane and i am glad we are back to sanity. host: that was maria. one last call. linda in st. louis, missouri. line for democrats. good morning. caller: i just want to say that that last caller calling kamala dumb, she is an intelligent person and i cannot believe the america that we are living in that you would have a racist and fell as a president and this man has done nothing. when they start checking the

medicare and medicaid and screwing up social security and shaking away these food programs for lower income children so that donald trump can give his tax breaks to the millionaires then you will see how they feel about that. this man is nothing but a liar. i have not had any piece since the day that they said that he won. and this is truly what i think that something has to be rigged. there is nowhere in the world where i think that america can be so lopsided that they can believe that this man, who has -- who is really not a businessman. he has lost every business he has ever had and file bankruptcy. i am poor and i have never filed bankruptcy. what has he done that is right. thank you for taking my call. host: thawaour last call for this open forum. next on washington journal. the arms control association executive director, daryl

kimball joins us to discuss changes to russia's nuclear doctrine and how it could impact the u.s. and allies. we will be right back. ♪ >> american history tv saturdays on c-span2, exploring the people and events that tell the american story. this weekend at 2:00 p.m. eastern, conversations with veterans and historic inns on world war ii. here from the last rosie the riveter, buffalo soldiers of the korean war, holocaust survivors and more. and on the presidency, dennis quaid portrays ronald reagan in the film "reagan" and headlines a discussion about the story --

about the movie. the story is told through the eyes of the kgb agents and is based on the soviet union's real-life surveillance of the president. exploring the american story, watch american history tv saturdays on c-span2, or find a full schedule on the program guide or watch any time at c-span.org/history. >> are you a nonfiction book lover looking for a new podcast? this holiday season try listening to the many podcast c-span has to offer. on cue and a you it -- she will listen to interesting interviews with people and authors writing interesting books on history and then on booknotes+ with nonfiction authors and historians. afterwards bring together nonfiction authors with interview and show interviewers -- influential interviewers.

and on about books we talk about the business of books with news and interviews about the publishing industry and nonfiction authors. find all of our podcasts by downloading the free app or wherever you get your podcasts. ♪ >> attention middle and high school students across america, it is time to make your voice heard. the studentcam documentary contest 25 is here. this is your chance to create a documentary that can inspire change, raise awareness or make an impact. it should answer the question, your message to the president, what issue is important -- the most important to you or your community? whether you are passionate about politics, the environment or community stories. studentcam is your platform to share your message with the world with $100,000 in prizes including the grand prize of $5,000. this is your opportunity not

only to make an impact but be rerd for your creativity and hard work. enter your submissions today. scan the code or visit studentcam.org for all of the details on how to enter. the deadline is january 20, 2025. >> washington journal continues. host: joining us now to discuss the changes to russia's nuclear doctrine is daryl kimball the director -- the executive director of the arms control association. happy thanksgiving. we will start with a reminder of what the arms control association is and your mission. guest: we have been around for five decades. we are a research and policy advocacy organization. we have members that support our work. we are devoted to reducing the threats posed by the world's

most dangerous weapons, nuclear weapons, conventional weapons certain kinds and chemical weapons. there are more nuclear threats than in many years so we have been busy on the topic we will talk about today. host: it was last week that vladimir putin lowered the threshold for using the country's nuclear weapons. what does the new doctrine look like, and what is the goal of the change? guest: vladimir putin previewed this official shift in russia's nuclear declaratory policy, the conditions under which it mightn't use nuclear weapons. last month, prior to the decision by president biden to authorize ukraine to use longer-range missiles supplied by the u.s. to strike targets deep in russia. this is part of putin's efforts to influence u.s. and nato behavior to reduce the amount of

assistance that the western allies have been providing for you carrying -- ukraine's defee. this is an adjustment to the earlier policy and the last official version of this was issued in 2020. and i think we need to take it seriously but not literally because b putin, if he will make a decision to use nuclear weapons will not parse each of these words but the words are meaningful because he is trying to coerce the west. what the current doctrine, the new doctrine sizes is that russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack against russia or its ally, ella rose. that has been the policy for a long time. he said that if there is a conventional threat, that creates a "critical threats to its sovereignty earth territorial integrity" russia may use nuclear weapons.

that is a shift that says if there is a conventional attack or you nuclear attack -- or a nuclear attack that russia may use nuclear weapons. also in this new version of russia's policy, he listed a catalog of more detailed conventional threats that might trigger nuclear use including the "receipt of reliable information on the massive launch of attack weapons, strategic nuclear weapons, cruise missiles, unmanned missiles and he is even -- and even drones crossing the border of the russian federation." he is trying to imply that he might use nuclear weapons in the event that the united states expands its support for ukraine. we need to take this very seriously. i do not think this makes it more likely that russia is actually going to use nuclear weapons because it is not in

anyone's interest to use nuclear weapons in a conflict with nuclear arms states. there is no guarantee that that will not result in escalation and all-out nuclear war. putin knows that, biden knows that and president-elect trump knows that but this creates risks that both sides need to manage and these threats are worrisome. and the height of escalation remains higher so long as the war goes on. host: and defense secretary lloyd austin called the doctrine nuclear saber rattling. your point is this is something that the u.s. needs to pay attention to, what should they be focused on at this point moving forward? guest: i think one of the things that president biden has tried to do and president-elect trumbull have to keep this in mind is that putin is trying to limit and intimidate the united

states and nato from providing ukraine with more weapons and more capable weapons. biden has done a good job of gradually increasing the amount of support to ukraine so as not to cause putin's nuclear redlines. it was early in the invasion that putin started using nuclear threats. biden has been mindful of the real risks. but, president trump will have to manage this as the war goes on. and i think his pledge to try to end the war swiftly is going to be more difficult than it sounds. we are going to be going through a period of continued tension between the u.s. and russia, well into 2025. one of the things that the u.s. and the international community needs to do is to strongly condemn these kinds of threats as inadmissible.

the group of 2020 -- of 20 nations condemned these threats including countries like china and india who russia does listen to. and pushing back on those threats, rhetorically, is very important because it will make it harder for putin to follow through if he is considering nuclear use. host: the state department also responded to this announcement from the kremlin. we want to play this clip of matthew miller and we will talk about it on the others. [video clip] >> i am not surprised by the comments that the kremlin has made around the publication of this new revised nuclear doctrine. since beginning of the war of aggression against ukraine it has fought to coerce and intimidate both ukraine and other countries through irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and behavior.

despite what russia says neither the united states nor nato pose any threat to russia. russia is irresponsible -- russia's irresponsible and bellicose rhetoric will not improve its security. i would just add that the change in this policy in itself just highlights russia's hypocrisy. it is suggesting that it would use or could use nuclear weapons against a nonnuclear state if they understate -- undertake the same kind of aggression that russia is inflicting on ukraine and its people. we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture, but we will continue to call on russia to stop bellicose and irresponsible rhetoric. host: matthew miller saying that they do not see any reason to change our own posture.

remind us what that is and when the posture was most recently reviewed? guest: president biden did a review in 2022-2023. it maintained the long-standing u.s. nuclear weapons use policy, which is that the united states says that the fundamental role of the u.s. arsenal is to deter nuclear attacks. but, it also says there is a narrow range of other high consequence strategic level attacks. that is jargon for there might be some very limited circumstances under which there are nonnuclear threats that might trigger nuclear weapons. on a basic level the u.s. and russian nuclear use policies are similar. and that they do not rule out the first use of nuclear weapons against nonnuclear threats.

russia is being more aggressive. putin is using these threats on -- much more frequently. and i think it is smart that joe biden has not reciprocated the nuclear threats. it highlights the responsibility of putin's behavior and it puts putin -- it isolates him if the international committee uniformly condemns these types of threats and all types of nuclear threat. host: our guest is that it -- is the executive director of the arms control association. if you have a question or comment for him you can call in. the lines are broken down regionally. if you are in the eastern or central time zone, the line is 202-748-8000. if you are in the mountain or pacific, 202-748-8001. and i wanted to ask you about

the -- when we were talking about the relationship and potential use of nuclear weapons . last year russia suspended its participation in new start, the last remaining nuclear arms control pact. remind us what that does and what has happened since then? guest: the united states and russia for nearly 50 years have been managing their very dangerous nuclear relationship through dialogue and also through these control agreements. the new start agreement which was concluded in two thousand 10 limits the long-range nuclear weapons to 1550 on missiles on land, sea and bombers. president biden and putin in february of 2021 extended the treaty by five years. it was about to expire. it cannot be extended again. one of the challenges that

incoming president donald trump will have is how do i manage our nuclear relationship with russia beyond the conflict in ukraine to make sure that neither one of us begins to increase the number of nuclear weapons that we both have, which is an enormous number, larger than any other country in the world. so, the treaty cannot be extended by a simple signature again. it would take quite a lot to return to negotiation table and work out a new nuclear arms control framework as president biden suggested two years ago but putin has refused. president-elect trump will have to figure this out. one approach would be to reach a simple and political understanding with president putin and to not exceed the limits of the treaty, the new start treaty even after it expires. that could buy time for complex

and durable negotiation on a new agreement. and that is probably the best approach because russia has refused to engage so far in detailed arms control talks as long as united states' support for ukraine goes on. there is a possibility that if this is not managed well the united states and russia could increase the number of deployed nuclear weapons quickly by a technique called uploading warheads on existing missiles and bombers. the empty spaces on the systems and the u.s. and russia could each double the number of deployed nuclear weapons that they have. if there is not some sort of mutual understanding about restraint. this is one of the several difficult nuclear challenges that incoming president trump will deal with. host: you mentioned how president biden has approached the situation and we have

president-elect trump coming in for a second term. do we know how he might continue to handle these situations once he is back in office? guest: we do not have a good idea. as an organization committed to thorough and serious debate about nuclear weapons challenges we are disappointed that throughout the campaign there is not news coverage or discussion. from the other issues that president-elect trump was dealing with, present -- preventing a nuclear arms deal with iran and there is a looming crisis along the way so the joint conference plan of action the nuclear deal no longer exists and iran is closer to being able to produce serial for nuclear weapons. there are key deadlines coming up at the end of the year. iran threatens that it will pull out of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty which

step -- with specifies not to pull -- to go after nuclear arms. north korea is still there and kim jong-un for whom president trump three times, he has not suggesting that he wants to meet again anytime soon. and north korea is building up nuclear missile capabilities. in addition to the challenges posed by russia, iran and north korea there is also china which is slowly building up its smaller but still deadly arsenal. and going back to the new start problem, if the u.s. and russia do not agree to constrain their arsenals, it is more likely that china will accelerate the buildup of that strategic new shoe -- nuclear arsenal. china has about 500 total nuclear weapons. russia and the united states have about 4000. and it is possible that we will have a three-way nuclear arms race if president trump does not

try to manage the difficult relationship with russia on nuclear weapons and reach a new understanding to constrain the u.s. and russian arsenals. host: we are talking with daryl kimball about changes to russia's nuclear doctrine. first up is dave in new york. good morning. caller: good morning. it is difficult sometimes to talk about this because i know that c-span i have been watching for a while. usually we get pro-war and pro-attack russia and it is rare to have antiwar people. i want to reframe the issue a little bit and what i want to say is right now russia is steamrolling the ukrainian troops. they are having hoop -- huge problems. casualties in the war are like 70% from artillery. russia is just crushing the ukrainians. and the desperate situation for the west.

it is nato that is desperate and you see that with them taking these risks by now they have the attack and really the problem is the tomahawk missiles. those are stationed in poland and wrote -- and romania and they can be switched to have a nuclear thing. putin has said multiple times recently that if you continue to use western technology because a tomahawk cannot be fired unless the american intelligence or american specialist program the missiles. so we are taking a direct action in attacking russia in the west. we have german tanks and english tanks and american tanks in the region on the land of russia, killing russian soldiers. so we are already very close and this is what putin warned about. and the elephant in the room is that the russian missile, the

hypersonic technology and the nuclear doctrine it will allow him to do it. he is saying we will get in hot water and he said i do not need to use nuclear weapons but i have something where i can destroy anything you have and there is nothing that the west can do about it with hypersonic technology and we witnessed it. so, how do you -- how do you explain this or how do you work around this problem with this new missile and technology? guest: well, the caller is referring to a strike by russia using an intermediate range ballistic missile. it is a variation of a long-range into constant mental -- intercontinental ballistic missile. what we know about this is that it was not carrying a

significant payload, large warhead. putin was trying to demonstrate that he might use ballistic missiles, which are extremely difficult to shoot down with a missile defense system that ukraine has and that he might use these intermediate range into ballistic -- ballistic missiles in this conflict between ukraine with another means of russian escalation in this horrible war. along with the nuclear doctrine changes this is another sign that putin is trying to intimidate and coerce western behavior. the caller is right in saying that ukraine is having a great deal of difficulty on the battlefield. the russians are increasingly using infantry to surge ahead, slowly take over a territory

that ukraine had won back two years ago at enormous cost to russian soldiers. they are now using north korean soldiers to augment the russian forces. the ukrainians you know, long-term, do not have the manpower to deal with this. president biden has tried to do what he can while he has time in office to help the ukrainians on the battlefield. but this is why it is very difficult for president-elect trump to bring a quick end to the conflict. it is partly because putin sees an advantage right now and he thinks he has the leverage. and he has not necessarily going to agree to an immediate cease-fire that feeds 1 -- that cedes one third of ukrainian territory to russia and he might be seeking more.

president-elect prop might seek to create more leverage on his side of the negotiating table. that could lead to escalation and more u.s. military support, and continued risk in the conflict. this is not an easy situation where a simple one to deal with. yes, the ukrainians are in a difficult situation at this point given the situation on the battlefield and their knowledge that president-elect trump does not want to maintain the same levels of support that president biden and nato have provided. host: ronald in jericho, new york. good morning. caller: good morning. i just want to mention that the media has been totally ignoring, and i think this involves your current guest as well, unfortunately the role that united states played in causing the war to occur by expanding nato eastward to russia and near

russia. that has provoked and caused the war. i wish you would be emphasizing this much more than you have ever mentioned or emphasized. and also, this is crazy, the talk about use of nuclear weapons. we should go back to thinking at the time of reagan when he met gorbachev to do everything possible to reduce the possible use of nuclear weapons by reducing and eventually hopefully soon, eliminating them because there is no logical reason whatever to ever use them. and, what i read recently about u.s. plans to upgrade the

nuclear arsenals, it is just does not make any sense at all. caller: the caller makes a crucially important point, which is that the use of nuclear weapons is crazy. we have to remember that if there were nuclear weapons used in the war in ukraine or against nato over against russia, it could lead to escalation involving hundreds if not thousands of nuclear weapons. there are independent assessments that show that within the first hours of such a conflict as many as 100 million people would die or be casualties and many tens if not hundreds of millions more in the day that followed. that is why ronald reagan and mike held gorbachev in the 80's declared that a nuclear war must

never be fought. and president reagan added if that is the case why not eliminate them all. i agree with the caller. the goal of all nuclear armed states is to presume -- pursue nuclear disarmament -- disarmament. but, the problem is we are in a situation today that we are in with a lot of different causes and reasons for the current conflict in ukraine. i would note to the caller that my organization in the 1990's was very critical of the proposals to expand nato because it would likely produce a much more antagonistic relationship with russia. nevertheless, we are where we are and it is vladimir putin who made the decision to invade illegally ukraine. he is responsible for this

conflict. and we are all responsible for trying to find a way to end its in a way that does not reward a bully, vladimir putin, for invading another country and threatening the use of nuclear weapons. host: when we look at president-elect trump and him coming in, it was in flint, michigan on the campaign trail that he spoke about the use of nuclear weapons. we will play that and get your response. [video clip] >> to me we have one really major threat called nuclear weapons. we have other countries that are hostile to us, they do not have to be hostile to us. if you have a smart president you will never have a problem with china, russia and every one. i get along great with hoop didn't, kim jong-un -- i get along great with putin, chimp -- kim jong-un and president xi.

i got along great with him. you have five countries and you will have more. it is a single biggest threat to the world, not only michigan but to the world. and you will not care so much about making cars if that stuff starts happening. we have people who are not good at negotiation. the war should have never happened. now i want to be nice. he was so nice to me, but in one way i sort of wish the call was not made because i do feel that he is so nice and i am so sorry about what happened. but i have to lay it down. the same with kamala, she could not have been nicer. the fact is, the fact is that we have to have people that are respected by the opponents, by the other side and by other countries and even pakistan has nuclear weapons. we have company -- countries. india has a lot of nuclear

force. we have countries with tremendous nuclear power. and when i hear these people talking about global warming. that is the global warming you have to worry about, not the ocean rising 400 years and you will have more seafront property if that happens. is that good or bad? and i said isn't that a good thing. if i have a little bit property on the ocean i have a little bit more ocean. the fact that it is a tremendous problem, and we are closer to world war iii today than we have ever been. the difference is and i say this a lot, this is not army tanks going back and forth. this is obliteration. the power of these weapons and i am the one who revived it and we hated to do it. we had stuff that was 48 years old and we did not know if it works. we have incredible stuff and so does russia. china has much less, but they will catch up. it is the single biggest threat

by far to civilization. [end video clip] host: something he talked about and something you mentioned is how he could handle the situation. but he is talking about the relationship he has with some of these world leaders that are in power that have nuclear capability. what are you going to be watching for moving into 2025 and 2029? guest: it is really important and good that president-elect trump understands the gravity of the responsibility he will have as a person in charge of the u.s. nuclear weapons policy and engaging with and managing relationships with the world's other nuclear armed states. his relationships with individual leaders can be important, it is not sufficient. one of the things i will be looking for is who is he putting in charge of certain files. who is he putting in charge of

the north korea file. who is he putting in charge of nuclear arms control negotiating strategy of the state department at the national security council. that will be important and that is the second level of appointments we have not seen. the other thing that is important is what does he suggest is the strategy vis-a-vis russia? i said the united states and russia are looking at the expiration of the only remaining nuclear arms control agreement. president trump and his people out how he will deal with that. the other thing that was just mentioned and the previous caller said the enormous cost of modernizing existing nuclear arsenals. we have to remember that the united states currently has a sizable nuclear force and we have been the process of a decade and a half of recap lies a and replay -- re-capitalizing

that base. the long-range missiles, submarines, long-range bombers and the warhead systems. the cost is in excess of $756 billion over the next 10 years and the costs are rising. if the united states gets into an unconstrained nuclear arms race with russia and china, that cost will go up and additional hundreds of billions of dollars. that is going to compete with other important needs like human security needs. so, that is not an arms race that you want to get into if only because it is enormously costly. and because the existing program is already behind schedule and over budget. host: here is chris in illinois. in morning. caller: good morning. how are you? host: we are doing good. caller: good. first of all, addressing some of

the other previous callers i want to say it is disappointing from someone who possibly voted for reagan is buying into the russian propaganda about how nato is accelerating this conflict in ukraine, honestly. i think even after finland joined nato, there is only 11% shared border between russia's land border and all nato nations. if anything, with everything going on right now it has only galvanized the current nato defense force. but, that is not to ignore my concerns with nuclear proliferation and even how dire things are in ukraine. something to keep in mind too is, excuse me, is that russia is

possibly going to fight a multinational front and has to maintain this very large nuclear arsenal, while also having to deal with a very dire situation with its own economy in the gutter. how do you view russia being able to reconcile these two things? guest: russia is facing problems with respect to its defense force and needs. this war has drained their manpower and their resources as you have mentioned. and their economy by some independent measures is in difficult straits. but putin is clearly determined to see this war out. the ukrainians are desperate to survive and win, but putin is desperate to prevail, whatever that means in his mind's eye. those were the things that i would note.

it is as you said, one of the ways in which putin's decision to invade ukraine has backfired is that it has rallied the nato countries together and has led to the addition of two new countries to the nato alliance. that is exactly what putin did not want. so, but the problem that we face and we can debate until the cows come home what the origins of this war were going back three decades. but the matter -- the fact of the matter is the current crisis is one that we need to deal with and concentrate on. president trump, when he comes in, will have to work with nato and ukraine to manage the russian threat and to find a way to end the war in a way that does not reward hooted for his aggression --putin for his

aggression. he is responsible for the instigation of the conflict. but we have to live with the consequences for years to come. we are at a pivotal moment in this conflict. host: alejandra. jackson heights, new york. good morning. caller: good morning. i wanted to call to ask the guest if there were serious ramp-up support from nato in the u.s. to send more high-tech weapons or more offensive weapons to ukraine and ukraine were to change the fortune in the war and make serious gains and push into russian territory, how likely is it that russia deploys a small-scale nuclear weapon, something with a 20 to 40 mile blast radius to try to not be embarrassed. how likely is that and if that happened what do you think the nato response or the american response? guest: that is a good and

extremely difficult question. the short answer is that if russia were to be falling back and losing territory, which is not the case at the moment, i would say it is more likely that hooted would consider the deployment of short range so-called tactical nuclear weapons. i am not certain but more likely than today. and we were in just a situation in the fall of 2022 if you recall when the ukrainians launched a counteroffensive and began to regain territory in the three eastern blocs that russia had invasion. -- invaded. at the same time russia declared it might use nuclear weapons if russian territory were attacked and they had just declared that these three ukrainian places were a part of russian territory.

this was september or october 2022, the biden administration believed that there was a 50-50 chance that putin might use tactical nuclear weapons not against nato but against military targets in ukraine to tilt the balance of the conflict back into russia's favor. he did not do that. if he had done that the consequences would have been catastrophic on the ground in ukraine. because tactical nuclear weapons while smaller in general than strategic nuclear weapons are extremely deadly. the tactical nuclear weapons in the force that can be launched by short range missiles were fighter-bombers, these are city busting sized if you recall hiroshima and nagasaki. many believed that what the biden administration would have

done with not be an immediate response using tactical nuclear weapons itself, but a very strong and conventional military response against the sites that launched nuclear weapons against ukraine. and that i think would have been a very logical and appropriate response because once the united states replies with nuclear weapons, then it would have been very easy for both sides to escalate leading to all-out nuclear war. that is why president biden said at the time i do not see any scenario in which tactical nuclear weapons would be used and we do not wind up with nuclear armageddon. at that point president-elect trump and president-elect biden ci to lie and they understand the risks and the question is how to avoid those dangers and those risks. and move forward in a way in which we stabilize our relations with russia and manage our

nuclear relationship going forward much better than today. host: just a few minutes left with our guests, daryl kimball, the executive director director of the arms control association. at 10:00 the house will be gaveling and briefly and we will go to that when it happens. we go first to bob in arkansas. that morning. caller: good morning. i want to make a comment that does your guest know what the budapest memorandum was. guest: yes. caller: clinton signed off on it. if ukraine has nuclear weapons and they did, russia would not be screwing with them. obama let them take the crimea when he was in office. and like i said before, biden is a very weak president and he did not respond. i know an oil company man who

said that russia was getting $1 billion a day from europe for oil. that is $365 billion a year, so actually at the time that he invaded europe -- he invaded, europe was funding the invasion. the problem is, i think that putin wants to put the ussr back from the pieces. and that is his idea. but he is like hitler. that is why poland supports the ukraine the way it does. because back in the 30's when hitler went into poland and overran them. they remember that. i am old enough to remember that. i am 87 years old. the thing is that everybody that uses nuclear weapons has to be out of their minds. if it proliferates it will

destroy the whole world. the future is in space. the money we are spending on wars should be directed toward space. and it should be that all of the leaders in the world get together and do that. host: we will get a response from our guests because we are running short on time. guest: the caller mentioned the budapest memorandum, a 1994 agreement between the u.s., the u.k. and ukraine and russia. ukraine once hosted a huge number of soviet nuclear armed ballistic missiles. when ukraine became independent one of the key questions became what happens to these hundreds of nuclear armed ballistic missiles. ukraine did not have the ability to maintain the missiles or the control over their launch. the agreement was that these would be sent back to russia and dismantled according to a

nuclear arms control agreement between the u.s. and russia. the memorandum also pledged u.s. , u.k. and russian support for ukraine and gave it a -- david assurances, not guarantees, that they would come to ukraine's defense. putin violated the memorandum. but it was not an agreement that if it had been reached would have allowed ukraine to maintain the nuclear force to deter russia. i think ukraine was never in a position to maintain nuclear weapons. and so, that is a history about that. we are in the situation we are today and russia is occupying one third of ukraine. and so long as the conflict goes on, we will see a heightened risk of nuclear weapons use that we will need to find commonsense

ways to push back against. and we will need to reestablish high-level dialogue with russia. i hope president-elect trump can do that to bring a swift and just end to the war and to manage the huge arsenal that the united states and russia possess that threaten one another. host: i wanted to ask you about a headline that was in the new york times. trump advisors call for u.s. nuclear weapons testing if he is elected. that is from over the summer. what is your reaction to a headline like that and what would be the purpose? guest: my reaction is concerned because we are seeing this headline because president trump's former national security adviser, robert o'brien in an article over the summer said that the united states should resume the explosive testing of nuclear weapons after a quarter-century of a moratorium. today there is no state

conducting nuclear test explosions, even north korea. united states developed a program of nonexplosive testing to maintain u.s. nuclear warheads. if we were to resume testing and violate a treaty that we signed of 1996, i think it would see a chain reaction of nuclear tests and other states like north korea, russia and china and that would only enhance their capabilities and help them develop new types of weapons. this is not a smart course of action. and so that kind of headline concerns me and i hope that is not anywhere near on president trump's agenda. host: our guest daryl kimball, executive director of the arms control association. you can find hi >> congress returns monday for a busy month ahe.

the house and senate are facing a government funding deadline and must pass funding legislation by december 20 to erett a shutdown. thhambers plan to vote on the white house's reesof $100 billion in emergency disaster relief for hurricane victims. congress will also take up the final version of an annual defense program and policy bill. mike johnson and senate majoty leader -- leader chuck schumer spoke about these must pass bills and their chambers plan to vote on it before adjourning for the year. >> we have items we have to go through before the remainder of the year. we have a disaster relief package that has been presented by the biden administration. even before hurricanes milton and helene hit sure, house republicans ensured appropriate funds would be provided to fema as we did in the last package. now that we are back in session, we will continue to provide resources that are desperately needed.

i saw firsthand, i went to the sites of devastation. i went to florida where helene made landfall, all the way inland, even to the agricultural areas. i spent a lot of time in west north carolina where it looks like a bomb went off in those areas. these communities can be rebuilt responsibly and congress has a role to play. >> when the senate returns after thanksgiving, senators can expect a very busy few weeks to finish our work for the end of the year. both sides must continue working together to keep the government open beyond the december 20 line. -- deadline. letting the government shutdown before christmas, nobody want bouts to happen. there may be a few and the other chamber who do but they are a distinct minority. we must pass the annual defense authorization bill to provide for our troops and hold the line against america's adversaries are brought. we passed the ndaa every year

over the last six decades. with so much going on around the world in the middle east, the indo-pacific and europe and beyond, passing the nda is as critical as it has ever been. we intend to get it done. >> watch live coverage of the ho c-span, the center on c-span two you can watch all of our congressional coverage with our free video app, c-span now, or online at c-span.org. announcer: c-span is your unfiltered view of government. we are funded by these television companies and more, including comcast. >> you think this is just a community center? no, it is way more than that. >> comcast is partnering with a thousand community centers, so students from low income families can get the tools they need to be ready for anything. announcer: comcast suprts c-span as a public service, along with these other television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy.

announcer: american history tv saturday is on c-span two, exploring the people and events that tell the american story. this weekend at 2:00 p.m. eastern, conversations with veterans and historians on world war ii. hear from merchant marines, the last -- buffalo soldiers of the korean war, holocaust survivors and more. and at 9:30 p.m. eastern on the presidency, after dennis quaid portrays ronald reagan in the film "reagan," and headlines a discussion about the movie. the 40th president's story is told through the eyes of the agent and is based on the soviet union's real-life surveillance of ronald reagan. the event features several clips from the film. exploring the american story. watch american history tv saturdays on c-span two, and find a full schedule on your pr guide, or watch