these events going forward. president trump rollout executive orders and announcements in the paris agreement and others such as dismantling of usaid going much further what is not surprising is allies and partners around the world are watching every step.

we are going to focus looking at allies and partners in asking three road questions. to help us think through these issues and foreign policy agreements. the senior advisor. gregory is the senior polling director and transparency initiative deputy director and

senior fellow and vice president of the japan chair. in addition to these here in washington does not give us a better sense of how they are doing? >> japan and many others, wondering the so-called america first policy.

to defend japan which was important given the conflict for security. the joint statement issued the only bilateral but continuing and pattern, the philippines and others. the political peace and they sign on to the and it was an instinct to maintain u.s.

presence but more exercise and other allies and deterrent signals. i think japan was reassured and we talked about economic affairs and the surplus with the united states. we are confident they will address the in the form of new initiatives and investments into the united states. there are some elements in the economic relations.

the tone was very popular and maintain an economic partnership. there is something uncertainty and reassuring it looks to a reliable ally. >> with these predecessors in knees alliances. >> i think it does remain a concern. they were very outspoken in the

european subpoena security for stability and i'm sure they are watching the upcoming dialogue closely with respect to ukraine and japan likes getting early and trump had a few rounds and that may have against and reflect so there's probably still some uncertainty with trump engaging. japan is pretty comfortable that it can be addressed.

>> thanks again for joining us and it's probably an ideal location. the u.s. allies the last several years we have increased cooperation that australia is facing terms simultaneously and with full control and programming across the pacific. how are you developing these the upcoming election? >> thank you and good morning, very early morning from here. this is from a government official, a little trouble emergent strategy and washington

given the trump administration's personal to a certain degree they are ready for this and returning donald trump to the white house for a year and the bombardment for australia. they've been able to secure meetings early stand marco rubio.

and securing the administration so the secretary of defense and trump administration and australia and that might accelerate. last friday the author and prime minister, by all accounts on these accounts, it went well and he had it. the result was not clear. last time around with the

diplomatic book group work and discussion there trying to discern on a number of them trying and washington and the key players and what it will look like and there are questions about what they could look like in southeast asia and increase engagement and the engagement that follows through and plans to extend through and

usaid in 2023 in the region and inflation and open new u.s. embassies. and all of this, they are twofold. working to ensure a good in the region. in terms of australia, there is conversation here and its value proposition. you can see a number of talking points and the u.s. market and australia.

and they come there potentially into the u.s. market and the initiative for decades and finally there is recognition about defense and trade likely to be raised and negotiations. the upcoming election and what's going to happen and that is what they talk about here.

great points on how it's not about the bilateral partnership in the region. i'll turn to on southeast asia, u.s. allies and other close partners and south china between the u.s. allies. how would you say actions are being read across the region and if you have a policy with development work climate and credibility in the region? >> cautiously optimistic and have reason to pull the positive

and they are uncertain. in the order in both cases. this is an expectation and to be fair, it's given under the biden administration is.

i'm not sure that the administration would see it that way and second largest trade deficit. what has not really percolated yet, in a developing region, and every region, there were contractors and pv clinics and programs, at least four different ones.

and others may be that encapsulation. and destabilizing in the region and it's probably the way everybody else is feeling and negotiate that. it is something they can grab onto and there is a deep steak to negotiate and pray for the

last. they are strategizing in this moment and curious about our any expectations from beijing. >> taiwan finds itself in an interesting position with partners and allies where traditionally it's a relationship with the u.s. with

this importance and it continues to be the case but you have to justify the value it brings to the united states. the defense spending most administrations will be initiative to address the trump administration. and trying to highlight the investment in the united states

and the talking piece. and we should perform at this time doing what matters in significant development. beijing sort of waited on the move and bought a whole process and leadership is ready to act on a variety of friends when it comes to trade. we saw u.s. companies being

blacklisted and investigations supported. that is not necessarily -- what that really meant was to signal beijing was able to take pressure in the chinese economy has been week and effective getting beijing to achieve decoupling. the trade policy under the trump administration but in beijing, there's a lot in the end goal is some kind of deal and there is space bar negotiation and they are trying to position themselves when they can negotiate on that as well.

what that consists of, there's not a lot of clarity and that is where it really matters. it's very complicated and the mode of sector which is not a priority so that would be -- low likelihood, low impact but it is too long, it is one we we should expect in the near. >> for our partners on will file

908. a lesser so compared to countries, these residents the window, there is a political crisis and on the south korean

side as greg decided, there's a degree of nervousness, good signals about three issues a sound like they welcome the free trade agreement on the agreement over 60 billion on that, the first one on the office but there is a clear direction.

and defend themselves. since 1990. one of them is on economic security and the trump administration, a clear focus and the trump administration before the election.

in south korea and acting government, i've been focused on energizing the industry and south korea and even though the previous government was no favor and shut down a lot and nuclear industry, if they were to win are more open to it.

and you can speak to this as well and trump has put it on the table about this particular issue. they will engage and the symmetry in the first administration but to me what's interesting is it is in a very different way and there seems to be signals to the administration and they still speak and complete verifiable relations. they focus on an american first strategy?

and that is the main concern. the context of ukraine trump they want to engage getting rid of all of their elections and send troops to ukraine and stop munitions transfer and a nobel peace prize and what could possibly be the next korean government and want to work and be engaged so they can nominate the nobel peace so could be a very different peace and they would take place and with the investment, a trillion dollars or something along this line,

what they have played in the past, billions of dollars in red states and the semiconductor industry and the main thing we will get government and korea and the focus will be getting in quickly as soon as possible. it's not unusual, they want to get in early and shape the policy, that is with the trump administration and trump has his views on things they will want to get in and catch up and everything the administration will have done. >> given the limited time, i'd

like to go to the audience if you have questions. any other questions? maybe two at a time. [inaudible] >> one of the things that struck me, a survey done a year or two ago that asked a question among businessmen and academics, which country has the most economic?

only 10% in the united states and direct in the investment but when it comes to trade, there's economic attendance on this component supported by china and both the biden administration and the trump administration are using trade for. in the biden administration.

>> thank you. >> i have a question, what is the proven approach in the indo pacific? in regards to ukraine and russia's war, there were talks about creating an alliance. and in the region the pacific

partners in regard to ukraine. >> in respect to as i mentioned at the outset, japan was very outspoken. mainly because it's the region where they are probably on a daily basis and they have the implications for dynamics. and they have said the law about

japan's voice and that was very powerful and that is back. right now they see the dialogue on hold and it's a proud history of supporting ukraine. for the broader implications. in respect to southeast asia, i would say probably there's a long history of diplomatic engagement of the region and a lot of quiet but effective development and economic support so japan could be very effective maintaining the positive dynamic providing stability and a

foundation for future economic prosperity. of course there's no substitute for u.s. engagement we enter the u.s. and gaze out of the main things that robots will borrow. >> : pieces of politicians. anything of the great platform on ukraine is you lessons in

regards as a metaphor in the benefits of so is like taking a australia people are very closely but was having in europe and thousand 1114 out united states will conduct diplomacy and is reminiscent of this policy and the question of these investments are active conversations whether or not

always open this and it is portrayed the last couple of years they set up in the region and are perhaps infections slowly. understanding that it is not limitless. >> five and you have i can't

deny much all going wrong direction pretty much across the region singapore and in the margin in your ability area, i don't think you'll find the good course of the surrounding this we have projects against these indicators and is not here correlation between the economic investment it can be quite the opposite. some are on every metric.

it 75% were, is the most from the region so numbers do not necessarily equal but it's also a narrative that is positive. it is a policy resulted in. the other overlay is a guarantee it will invest more and more. i told it will in the u.s. because what is politicians the

way the system works. >> i do expect where u.s. relations are, who will probably see an increase without make sense. southeast asia and it just probably will be speaking. trade action items reveals trade from china so i think there are other challenges china will have to confront in a certain area.

>> two of the countries that provide a lot more and economic support in providing military support indirectly to the u.s. army and they are participants in the meetings where australia is and members of the nato summit so they want to closely in the lead out with putin and it probably was a great deal of concern. all of these countries indicate that they are adaptable in ways

that we are not comfortable with. many korean companies do that. at the same time that means a normalization there are many willing to do that but these countries and leaders adapt for better or worse. >> please join me in a round of applause.

[applause] >> the next panel is moving away from asia relations of the home. the middle east program and i am delighted by four of my colleagues across the department. europe, eurasia, senior fellow

for russia and eurasia in this program and senior fellow for the program director senior fellow program. my guess is we might have have this discussion from partners and allies. the transatlantic relations of the secretary of defense and j.d. vance and germany which

falls follow. you put out on valentine's day. does europe realize they are here? >> the first panel is a good news panel. adding a few things happened in the first is europeans realizing the degree of apathy and europeans and the prime minister

though ... since you noted this, you have exit but we knew it was. >> is enough of the forces, we are security last eight years of worry much about excel. our response will play the

weekly force you do not do that so here he is on the united states and part not just because it's not the firm is also how they are severed with acute crisis and i you have anything even force news that you have j.d. vance and we have this in perspective, there's a real difference between the trump administration and how they see the world and we try to live life defenses that what j.d. vance did send a huge spotlight on political differences between how the trump administration sees the world and highlighting

the far right in doing so and interfering directly or election is as though boat republican. the reaction would be understandably outraged. that has led to divorce essentially. i hope it's not the case and i hope it's not happening but what we are going to see his classes and collisions from security, ukraine, european, they will be stuck with the bill on these

policies because they will readily his cronies will. for the well ahead they have to the only way of reducing energy costs and other issues that will just emerge collisions will have ever created this negative sense is practice are there. >> witnesses divorce or time apart mean tornado? is it like for nato? >> i think is the question europeans are struggling with.

it's so warm to neil that he would use forces, there is no doubt mail basically returns doesn't exist which is strange. the challenge is how you build mayor where they can themselves the question of going gaps? and europeans that is to confess europeans to potential target for now foundational questions from the perspective the relationship is history that we don't think about is false something that happened perfume

that was it. the moment is huge. this quality a real king. as a sector that only serves as streaking out of control in the room will use forces they didn't happen but maybe we have three more days will throw the part about russian ukraine candidates from bundaberg and it's happening today.

before i leave today from a novel review and security advisor. the only process were i saw little they talk about ukraine is limited research is and exploring new partnerships so you can just of is the list talks about a bus barely presidential and there any time ukraine and's right to use the sun's question and it remains

successful in the participants are more likely. the new developments also for russian diplomats in willingness to negotiate. that is new development on the ground and they keep pushing forward and adjusting economically and there is more willingness on this possibility and negotiating and discussions are growing and there is no

willingness on the ground but they are already regarded as one. they are at the negotiating table. president trump is still unclear on negotiations. trumps approaches to proceed these meetings where they are an arbitrary side. trying to ended with these

obstacles in the biden administration and they are difficult to work and we eliminate irritants between countries and separate negotiations. there are talks concerning and a suggestion made by the trump administration and they were over 50% and they are minerals not serving security interest and required to have this on the table.

the problem the administration seems to be rushing where ukraine had this advantage and it does not reinforce its position. ...

altogether. a lot of the situation is not development. it's unclear how the trump administration will be successful to bring them together. >> thank you. if he's not able to that. what does it look like if the talks fail. if russia is not willing to negotiate, we'll find ourselves in a similar position.

they will be forced to provide they could produce more oil this is problematic for russia. revenue remains the main source of revenue for budget. there are ways to push.

>> thank you so much. >> it's interesting saudi aright backia has been negotiating between different partners including africa. it's the most prominent so far. it was just a few weeks ago. this conversation would come up soon. it was a 30 day waver or the

tariffs. that was set to expire early next month. so, chris, are we seeing a kind of divorce or break up like max described between europe and america? what is the trump administration trying to achieve by imposing the tariffs on canada and mexico. >> thank you, it's interesting. i have used the exact same imagery they are committed to marriage. it will go through a rough patch right now. i wanted to start off saying canada is in the position of being the first in a series of countries threatened with with x action or purchased or a portion of their country to be taken back.

negotiating from that is different. they have a lame duck as soon as a new liberal leader is chosen on the ninth. the conversation, and the leader they have shown contempt for. the engagement with washington, the slack has been picked up by the country's premiers. canada's governors. particularly premier ford. to answer your question quickly, the trump administration would like to see things from both countries. first is securing the border. to secure and prevent illegal

migration. to prevent the flow of drugs across-the-boarder. the second thing he'd like to do is create confusion and uncertainty in the business community. this is so that there could be companies that move either from mexico or canada backseat to the united states or countries thinking of investing in the three countries will invest in the united states verses canada or mexico. the third thing, he definitely would like a renegotiation of the u.s. canada mexico free trade agreement that he renegotiated in 2018. there are specific irritants in the relationship that were never resolved. as mentioned on the previous panel. the question of the u.s. trade deficit. there is a large one with mexico. there is a slightly smaller one with canada. they are both fairly large trade

deficits. for mexico, there is an additional thing he'd like to do. this will be part of nafta. it's breader than nafta or u.s. n.c.a. is close the back door to chinese shipments of goods to the united states avoiding tariffs on chinese goods and having them made in mexico or north america. lastly for canada, there is a long running grievance and legitimacy one in my view, it predates the trump administration. it predates the first trump administration. canada is a freeloader on defense. they spend barely 1.4% of their gdp on defense. i'll get into that in a second. that's the last irritant. on fentanyl and migration, everyone knows the southern border had a serious crisis on

migration and that, you know, the source of fentanyl, the largest source of fentanyl that comes into the united states that killed 70,000 americans per year comes from mexico. those are really pealed in comparison in terms of their size. fentanyl coming from canada is neglectable. it's a big problem for canada with overdosages. it's not a really issue as the southern border where action is being taken on both sides. including today there were announcements of the cia flying drones over mexican territory surveying drug trafficking presumably. creating uncertainty in the business community is difficult given that 60 years in terms of

the sector. 60 years between the two countries you cannot unvalve those supply chains overnight. same for the aluminum tariffs. 60% of the u.s. aluminum is from canada and there is not another place to get it in the short-term. that's a goal that's not so easily achievable. all of them is to make them renegotiate usmca. canada supplies supply management system. there is a issue around their digital services law and ai and new issue, which was raised by the president recently about access to banking for u.s. banks in canada. on the mexico side there are irritants around genetically modified corn and chinese

companies relocated to manufacture goods there. not just the auto motive sector. the trade war between the partners would have direct economic impact on u.s. citizens. cars will cost 3,000 more. each person will pay 1300 in tariffs mer year. grocery prices will no doubt go through the roof.

what do you view canada as mexico on the table here. initially we saw a flurry of phone calls between the prime minister of canada and president trump resulting in the waver of tariffs. what more are they likely to bring to the table and what more? >> there are tariffs targeted to get nontariff results. this is the border and fentanyl. there are those related to

trade. they r there to reinforce the border. they sent 10,000 personnel. we don know what that means. the canadians put money towards technology to have that surveillance and aircrafts the new thing that was not announced at the beginning, they announced additional funds of $200 million for improving intelligence

gathering along the border. the mexican, the formal announcement there were other points of agreement. they have to do with straightening the mexico southern border with guatemala. this was announced agreed to negotiate of trafficking which is a major source of violence. i think the other thing willing to put-on the table. there is no double, both countries will try to resolve the irritants in the usmca.

canada would give up the process and issues around digital services. there mexico opening up the energy sector. clearly, both the leaning candidate for the liberal party said they will meet the 2% commitment if not accelerate it. i'll leave it at that. >> thank you. >> moving to africa, they have not made the headlines in the same way. we saw the trump administration executive order freezing aid to south africa. they said the south african

government was taking discriminatory moves against the white landowners in south africa. the secretary said he wouldn't attend the g20 in south africa due to dei language sited there. i don't know if you want to continue the relationship metaphor or not. maybe if you could share what different states in africa are hoping for from the trump administration. it's a big issue and different countries will engage with africa where they are. african countries and the population, not just the government will look at the trump administration that we will meet them where they are. for that, i look at a handful of

countries kenya, morocco. they have a good standing on the world stage being engaged economically. they recently achieved major nonalign status. because they have a strong economy they have things to trade with the united states. they trade with the eu flowers. that will most likely continue. they are engaging haiti way from the borders. there is an important part of the united states. moroco is another country. the state department of the u.s. us for years. strong trading relations and security with morocco.

just to give you an example. when the united states was first created. something to remind everyone that goes through morocco. they also very influential on the secure different. you look at the u.s. corporation, the largest u.s. exercise that takes place in africa is the african lion. it's been going on in morocco for 20 years. this is to straighten the ties

there. you have them for themselves. the corridor is one that comes to mind. they were in the communist camps. they gradually, over 30 years it happened and that's why president biden visited. the only place he visited. this falls into the need for critical minerals we call them today. angola being located where it is has a lotto offer they are seeking this in the next to come to china. this is where countries like

zimbabwe get to play. how they engage in the united states. it won't be easy because i suspect the trump administration will want to weaken china's grip on the country. china has invested a lot. they have a stronger grip. be that as it may. that's one leverage the country has. the red sea comes to mind.secur.

so, this country will try to leverage whatever they have in that space. in terms of what they hope. i think they will hope the u.s. won't have a long laundry list of priorities that the african countries are not interested in. culture wars is one of those things they are doing everything from women empowerment. most have a handful of priorities we need to watch south africa. one economic development is the

most functional on the continent. they will host the g20. it's the relationship with the united states will hinge on the punitive i poach. we will suspend aid. the u.s. dei and other issues. that sends the wrong message and something other african countries will look to see if they can bully south africa this way, what happens to me as any other country. so, in terms of messaging this is for the u.s. particularly in the united states for china and

spaces wouldn't be the way to go. the last country that's unique in many ways. it is not a strong economy. so, managed to possession themselves security exporter. they do this in surrounding areas they do the same in the central african republic. they had the group and country against russia. with the wagner africa corn. they end up being on the ground serves at the eyes of the

allies. >> how does the freeze across the world, how does that in africa, effect the competition at the moment. i think the impact on african countries cannot be understated. the entire public health sector is on what the u.s. does. if they were to suspend that with push lick health and

culture and other programs. this would effect the gpc and russia doesn't do this kind of business. they don't have the capacity and i don't think they have any plans to start bringing corn to countries. china might seize the opportunity to end engagement. china is not known as the humanitarian powerhouse like the united states is. >> thank you. >> sticking on china for a minute. is china seeing an opportunity in this divorce between the relationship between europe and the u.s.

how can they shift going forward. >> maybe just to pick up on it. the european union and member states are the largest foreign aid. they are larger than the united states. in one wonder there is an opportunity for europe to step-up more. part of our collective flustration with europe is they haven't played the leading global role at times when they could do so given their weight. to get back to china, it's twofold. the europeans might go see themself as the last one in the liberal order. whether europe continues to try to expand free trade agreements. perhaps the approach the cpt and one of the anchor markets i

think you can see the counter balance there. i think what europe will see when it comes to china specifically. they did a very good job of pushing for greater u.s. european alignment when it came to china. we adopted the term and risking the underline of the european commission. some of that for the united states is back in europe and seeing this is a major priority and aligned. there is a lot of tension about that. the chinese foreign minister with remarks and security conference and stark contrast. the international rule safety. we are making a lot of appeals as a global actor.

that will really attract many europeans especially on issues like climate. economically and our colleague is the best person on this. there is a really tension there. europe is an export driven economy. china is doubling down on exports. they are both trying to dominate the sector. how you have a trade agreement or market access is a real question. look at the end of the trump administration. it ended with a trade-in vestment agreement with the chinese. it was sidelined and frozen. europe was trying to establish better economic relations and diplomacy got in the way. if they don't do that there is a real opportunity that really

annoys washington. >> thank you. >> i wanted to ask if anyone in the audience has a question. we have time for one or two. if you could identify yourself. >> my question is for our america's panelist. one thing that comes to mind when we talk diplomacy. the united states is deporting criminal migrants. they are going back to their country to try and they are recommitting. many of the crimes and mistakes. i curious what you think that will look like in terms of a diplomatic prospective they are

trending and going back to venezuela. you have flights to el salvador. they are willing to take criminal migrants from other countries. just curious if you can touch on what that relationship will look like? would that lead to more destabilizing efforts compared to what we are seeing now. >> we probably just have time for that one. >> really quick, the first thing that needs to be said most of the people being deported are criminal in the sense they violated u.s. laws when they entered the united states. they are not criminals for the majority. others committed crimes in the united states like theft. >> that's what i was saying. >> these countries are not exporters of migrants because they don't have conditions to

give sufficient employments for their own population. bringing people back will make that situation worst. they will make an effort to do so. it's a significant challenge. many don't have the capacity to ab source these people. it was mentioned earlier the freeze on foreign assistance on usaid. most of the assistance particularly in central america and northern part of southern america is creating conditions allowing migrants to have gainful employment and stay in their country or assist venezuelans that are exiting a dictate torship. so, these are serious problems that, i don't have -- i don't have a clever answer for. can i mention a super fast thing

it has to do with china. an economic war between united states, canada, and mexico is a lose, lose, lose for everyone. it's $1.6 trillion in trade. a weaker canada and mexico because of a recession caused by a trade war will only make it harder for canada to make defense commitments. more pressure on the border. the only country that will benefit is china. >> okay, i had not entirely anticipated the talk of relationships on this panel. we have a divorce with europe. we have a new relationship between russia and the u.s. we have marriage mediation going on over here.

in africa a mexicoture of china taking advantage of the opportunities. i'd like to thank my panel and thank you for coming as well and thank you for making this possible. follow the work of the policy department on social media. there is so much to discuss. we look forward to an attempt to workout what this means going forward. thank you. [ applause ]