they are, without doubt, one of the deadliest forces in nature. (vo)earthquakes are unstoppable, devastating and utterly

unpredictable. although scientists know which parts of the world are most at risk there is, as yet , no reliable way of pinpointing the precise moment an earthquake will strike. all they can do is increase their understanding of how they occur in the first place. but, as william ellsworth of the united states geological survey explained, this is no easy task. >>that turns out to be a very tough question. we have some ideas but it's very difficult to get direct evidence. earthquakes occur so deep in the ground we really can't afford to drill there at this point.we'd really like to go to an earthquake to understand how it starts but for now we have to use the laboratory. (vo)the world's worst earthquake disaster in recorded history took place in china on

the morning of january 23rd 1556. known as the shaanxi earthquake it tore through ten provinces in a great swathe of destruction, wiping out an area more than 500 miles wide. cities, towns and villages were completely obliterated with the final death toll reaching a staggering 830,000. most of the victims lived in a network of artificial caves called yaodongs set in high cliffs. they died when the massive earthquake set off a series of landslides which completely engulfed the caves. earthquakes result from the shifting and grinding together

of vast slabs of rock, some the size of continents, deep beneath the surface of the earth. they're known as tectonic plates. david jackson from the university of california explained further. >>the classical theory of plate tectonics has about a dozen major plates rubbing together and causing earthquakes.but we know in fact that the plate boundary is littered with smaller fragments.imagine for instance an eggshell. when you break an eggshell you get two big pieces but in the boundary there are lots of little fragments and if you try and move the two big pieces the little pieces have to rotate and adjust and find a comfortable position in order for this motion to take place. and it's that rubbing together of pieces that don't quite fit that causes earthquakes. (vo)the movement of the plates sends great shockwaves racing upwards, erupting as earthquakes either beneath the surface of the earth or deep under the

seabed. these are among the most deadly of all. known as submarine earthquakes the energy they release can create giant waves called tsunamis. with the power to travel across the sea at hundreds of miles an hour, when a tsunami makes landfall it overwhelms and destroys everything in its path. although scientists are unable to forecast exactly when an earthquake will occur, they have long since identified the world's greatest danger zones. around 90 per cent of earthquakes take place along what's known as the ring of fire. this 30,000 mile long horseshoe of seismic activity begins at the tip of south america in tierra del fuego.

it then moves north up the pacific ocean and along the north american and canadian coast, before crossing the sea and heading down to new zealand. earthquakes occur along what are called fault lines, or a break in the earth's crust deep underground. probably the most famous of all and certainly one of the most studied, is the notorious san andreas fault which runs 500 miles along the california coast. over time this fault has been responsible for a number of major earthquakes. the best known, and one of the greatest catastrophes in history, took place in san francisco early on the morning of april 18th 1906. a massive, and totally unexpected earthquake, rocked the city. it destroyed more than 30,000

buildings, set off innumerable raging fires and left around 250,000 people homeless. worse still the earthquake resulted in the deaths of at least 700 people. although later estimates put the toll as high as 3000. the power of earthquakes is determined by what's known as the richter scale. introduced in 1935 by charles richter, a us geologist and physicist, the scale grades the strength of an earthquake from one upwards, with each subsequent unit representing ten times the power of the one before. there is no upper limit. but, so far at any rate, nothing has exceeded 9.6. this was the intensity of the

most powerful earthquake ever recorded. it occurred 21 miles under the seabed off the south coast of chile on may 21st 1960 resulting in 2290 deaths and major structural damage. fortunately earthquakes even approaching this magnitude are extremely rare. in fact it is only when they measure 4.5 and upwards that earthquakes pose any real threat. >>steve jobs was many things but he was not a politician.

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december 7th 1988, armenia. at 11.41 in the morning an earthquake struck northwest armenia, completely destroying the town of spitak and resulting in enormous loss of life. most of the fatalities occurred when people were caught in poorly constructed buildings which collapsed around them. sub-standard design, materials

and building technique meant that even though it measured a comparatively low 6.9 on the richter scale, the overall effect of the earthquake was absolutely devastating .far greater than other more powerful earthquakes in other parts of the world. the main shock was followed four minutes later by an aftershock measuring 5.8. this caused even more chaos. and the tragedy was compounded by the slow and haphazard response of the armenian authorities to the emergency. in fact the international rescue teams who raced to the scene would prove far more effective in the search for survivors than the armenians themselves. the disaster struck at the worst

time of year; survivors had to endure harsh winter conditions and sub-zero temperatures, exposing those without shelter to even greater risk. meanwhile, the world looked on in horror as people clawed at the ruins with bare hands, desperate to save family and friends in what would turn out to be one of the worst disasters of the late 20th century. as the scale of the disaster became apparent the authorities were slow to react. they had no contingency plan in place and, in an unprecedented move, turned to the outside world for help. border controls were lifted as aid poured in, including medical equipment, food, clothes blankets and tents.

it was a race against time to provide shelter from the freezing winter weather for as many of the homeless survivors as possible. the death toll was huge. at least 25,000 people were believed to have perished. another 15,000 were injured, many seriously, and around half a million people were left homeless. spitak, the worst hit town in the region, was more or less reduced to rubble. although much of the ruined city has now been rebuilt, a great many people both here and elsewhere in armenia, are still living in makeshift accommodation. in december 2008 the armenian government promised to complete the reconstruction programme by 2012, but the memory of the

disaster will last for many more years to come. september 1st 1923, tokyo, japan. just before midday a massive earthquake struck japan's teeming capital city. thousands of buildings were flattened almost immediately killing or trapping a great many helpless people. worse was to follow as fires spread rapidly through the shattered city. tokyo's fire service was completely overwhelmed by the immensity of the disaster. it was estimated later that had the richter scale existed at the time, the earthquake would have measured between 7.9 and 8.3.

the earthquake, which would become known as the great kanto earthquake, occurred deep beneath the seabed in sagami bay about 57 miles southeast of tokyo. the shockwaves struck the industrial port of yokohama in tokyo bay first, resulting in major structural damage and more than 200 fires. around 27,000 people would die in yokohama and 40,000 were injured. less than a minute after hitting yokohama the earthquake struck tokyo. here the devastation was even worse. 400,000 buildings were destroyed; at least 100,000 people killed and thousands more

injured. it is believed that 35,000 people all died in the same place, an open space on the banks of a river where they'd fled, desperate to escape the firestorms now raging throughout the city. but it was a forlorn hope. as they huddled together the terrified crowd was engulfed in a great wall of flame. only a few hundred survived, all terribly injured. it would be another two days before the fires across the city burnt themselves out, leaving behind a scene of utter desolation. as the search and rescue work continued throughout tokyo and yokohama it became apparent that this was japan's greatest ever

natural disaster. seventy two years later japan suffered another major earthquake. although not nearly so many people died, it would pass into the records books as the costliest natural disaster of all time. january 17th 1995, kobe, japan. at 5.46 in the morning a powerful earthquake rocked the industrial city of kobe, 280 miles west of tokyo. it was the worst earthquake to hit japan since the great kanto earthquake in 1923. measuring 7.3 on the richter scale the epicentre of the earthquake lay ten miles below ground at the northern end of the island of awaji, twelve miles from kobe.

the main shock lasted 20 seconds, shattering the city home to 1.5 million people. as buildings collapsed thousands were trapped beneath the rubble. rapidly spreading fires caused by ruptured gas pipes added to the danger. older wooden houses blazed throughout the city. their heavy clay tile roofs collapsed into the streets resulting in even more deaths and injuries. these particular houses had been built years before the city authorities introduced strict seismic building codes. they were resistant to typhoons which frequently hit the region. but their wooden frames were no match for a powerful earthquake.

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[ bob cannon ] samuel adams summer ale is a flavorful wheat beer. it has a very nice spice note. [ jim koch ] it has a little lemon zest and a historic brewing spice called grains of paradise. -it's citrusy. -lemony. sam adams summer ale it totally reminds you of summer, you know? the fire and other emergency services did their best. but they were hampered not only by a failure in the water supply but also by streets blocked with piles of rubble. by coincidence mark ghilarducci, a us fire chief, was attending an emergency services convention a few miles away.

>>when the earthquake occurred i was sleeping in osaka, my hotel, there was quite a bit of material flying off the desks. and what was going through my mind is if this building were to collapse what void spaces can i get into. how can i save myself so there's a lot of things going through your mind when the actual event is happening. they had some 150 fires immediately break out after the earthquake so that was a very critical issue and they were concerned about it going into a conflagration which in fact it clearly the fires and the large numbers of structural collapses and the people trapped was staggering to the japanese. (vo)outside kobe the main highway to the neighbouring city of osaka was wrecked. railway lines were torn up bridges collapsed and the city was cut off from the outside world.

known as the great hanshin earthquake, the disaster resulted in more than 6000 deaths in kobe and the surrounding area. in addition around 37,000 people were injured and 200,000 buildings were either destroyed or badly damaged. us engineer peter yanev was shocked by the scale of the disaster. >>it was by far the worst earthquake i have ever seen. it exceeded by far the japanese expectations. they expected moderate damage. maybe some significant damage.but for the most part light damage .what they had is essentially a war zone. (vo)in the aftermath of the earthquake thousands of people were left homeless. 50,000 fled the city, many of them never to return.

the cost of the disaster was later put at between $150 and $200 billion. according to the guinness book of records this makes it the costliest natural disaster ever to befall a single country. the japanese authorities were severely criticised, not just because there was no proper warning that a major earthquake was imminent, but also for being slow to accept help from elsewhere, including the us and the uk. later, comparisons were made between the disaster at kobe in 1995 and an earthquake of similar proportion which occurred a few miles from the town of northridge near los angeles, california a year earlier. both earthquakes took place at a fairly shallow depth beneath the ground, ten miles at kobe and eleven at northridge.

in earthquake terms this is known as a 'direct hit.' but that's where the similarity ends. although northridge suffered major structural damage, the death toll was just 60, a fraction of the number of people who died in the kobe earthquake. however, it could have been far worse because, as william ellsworth of the usgs pointed out, no warning was given at northridge either. >>in neither case did we expect the earthquakes to occur when they did. there were indications in the case of the kobe earthquake that the fault was dangerous and it should rupture at some time. in the case of the northridge earthquake we really didn't even know this fault existed until the earthquake occurred. (vo)despite their failure to predict the timing of the kobe earthquake, the japanese authorities have spent years

working on the problem. japan lies in one of the world's most earthquake prone regions and is on constant alert. the threat is so great that at least once a year its citizens whatever their age prepare for the worse by going through a series of disaster simulations. the country now boasts nearly 200 seismic monitoring stations most of them in the greater tokyo area, and a national committee of seismologists is on permanent standby to deal with an emergency. but while earthquake forecasting remains such an inexact science, the first time anyone, including the committee, will probably be aware of impending disaster is when an earthquake

strikes. august 17th 1999, izmit, turkey. turkey has a long history of earthquakes but there are few more devastating than the one which occurred in the middle of the night at the city of izmit. measuring 7.4 on the richter scale and lasting 37 seconds it was one of the worst recorded earthquakes to hit an industrial area anywhere in the world. izmit, part of turkey's most heavily populated and industrialised region is situated in the country's northwest region, about 60 miles east of the ancient and historic city of istanbul. the epicentre of the earthquake was ten miles deep, just seven miles southeast of izmit. the tremors were so powerful

they were felt as far away as ankara the turkish capital, 200 miles to the east. around 20,000 buildings either collapsed immediately or were so badly damaged they had to be demolished most of them were made from reinforced concrete and six to eight storeys high. the failure of so many buildings came as a shock, not just to the people who lived or worked in authorities. in common with other relatively modern structures throughout turkey they were supposed to comply with a strict building code, designed to make them as earthquake resistant as possible. later, however, it transpired that a great many of the

buildings in izmit failed to meet even the most basic requirements. they were poorly constructed with inferior materials and built on ground subject to liquefaction. liquefaction occurs when subterranean groundwater is forced to the surface by an earthquake, loosening the soil and, quite literally turning it into liquid mud. most of the buildings which survived complied with the seismic code. they were well made and sat either on rock or firm, solid ground.

(vo) every week night, cenk uygur calls out the mainstream media. >> overwhelming majority of the country says tax the rich, don't go to war.

as well as hitting residential and commercial property, the earthquake also caused major damage to a great many factories and other industrial premises in and around the city. worst hit was a major oil refinery which accounted for around one-third of turkey's oil supply. a fire here raged for several days before it was brought under control, forcing the evacuation of everyone within a three mile radius. the final official death toll in the stricken city and surrounding area was around 17,000. however, unofficial estimates put the number of deaths much higher. at between 30 and 40,000. in addition, 44,000 people were

injured and thousands left homeless. damage to property came in at $6.5 billion but the overall economic impact was reckoned to be at least three times as much. may 12th 2008, sichuan province, china just before 2.30 in the afternoon the worst earthquake to hit the country for more than 30 years struck one of china's poorest and most heavily populated regions with the main shock lasting a terrifying two minutes, the results were absolutely catastrophic

measuring 7.9 on the richter scale, the epicentre of the earthquake was 12 miles underground about 60 miles northwest of chengdu, the capital of the sichuan province in the southwest of china. the earthquake occurred on what's known as the longmenshan fault, which runs 150 miles along the base of the longmenshan mountains. when the fault ruptured the resulting earthquake was so powerful that the tremors were felt nearly 1000 miles away in beijing, china's capital. they were also picked up as far away as thailand, vietnam, bangladesh, pakistan, india, nepal and russia. acutely aware that the disaster

occurred just three months before china was due to host the 2008 olympic games, the authorities were quick to respond. in fact less than two hours after the earthquake struck, wen jiabao, the country's prime minister, was on his way to the stricken zone to oversee and co-ordinate the rescue work. he was followed almost immediately by ten emergency medical teams. at the same time 50,000 troops and police were drafted in to help look for survivors. on may 15th, three days after the earthquake, a fleet of 90 helicopters were deployed to the region. they would prove invaluable in reaching some of the more remote areas, now virtually inaccessible either on foot or

in vehicles after the roads were either badly damaged or blocked with landslides. the international community also rushed to help, supplying tents, blankets and emergency medical aid. even taiwan, which has had a long and difficult relationship with its much larger mainland neighbour, provided china with 100 tons of much needed supplies. damage was widespread throughout the entire province, but the worst hit area was the city of beichuan in beichuan county. here more than 80 per cent of the buildings were destroyed including houses, factories, a hospital and eight schools. as the hard pressed rescue teams struggled to reach people trapped in the rubble of their

homes and other buildings, questions were already being asked about why so many had collapsed. following a great earthquake in july 1976 when around 250,000 people died as the city of tangshan, 80 miles southeast of beijing, was reduced to rubble strict seismic building codes had been introduced throughout china. but now, as so many buildings erected after 1976 had failed, it was apparent that not everyone had followed the rules. because so many schools collapsed, killing or injuring thousands of children throughout sichuan province, public anger was directed against those thought responsible for their shoddy construction. in the more remote areas whole villages were razed to the

ground. but as so many of the buildings long pre-dated tangshan, no one was particularly surprised. they had not been designed to withstand the awful destructive power of a massive earthquake. >>steve jobs was many things but he was not a politician.

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homeless although some unofficial estimates put it as high as eleven million. to make matters worse, the area would continue to be hit by a series of aftershocks for some time following the main earthquake. the cost of the sichuan earthquake both in human and economic terms was colossal. this led to the chinese government announcing in november 2008 that it would spend around $146 billion on reparations over the next three years. at least $17.5 billion of this would go towards making sure that schools, hospitals and various other public buildings are designed to much more exacting standards than before. in february 2009 as millions of homeless people still shivered

in their tents and other makeshift accommodation, a number of us and chinese scientists began questioning what had caused the devastating earthquake in the first place. they suggest it might have been triggered by a giant hydroelectric dam, built just three miles from the epicentre and only 550 yards from the longmenshan fault line. the zipingpu dam is 511 feet high and holds back more than 300 million tons of water. the scientists believe that the weight of water is so great that it could have penetrated the rock and put tremendous pressure on the fault line below. but so far the authorities have refused to admit that building the dam as well as nearly 400 others in the earthquake zone might have had any

bearing on the sichuan province disaster. worried scientists are said to have been denied access to any further technical data on the earthquake. however, if another major earthquake occurs along the longmenshan fault anywhere near one of the dams, the views of the scientists will have to be taken seriously. in the same way that guessing when a volcano will erupt is notoriously inexact, predicting an earthquake is just as difficult. in fact more so. an earthquake is an unseen act of nature, occurring anywhere along a geological fault line, either deep underground or beneath the seabed.

the first anyone knows of an earthquake is when the ground beneath their feet begins to buckle and heave. in fact scientists freely admit that is virtually impossible to predict exactly when an earthquake will occur. lucille jones of the california institute of technology elaborates. >>the way i would describe it is to say a prediction is something that's socially useful.and in that sense we can make quite a few predictions about what earthquakes to expect from the rate of earthquakes that we have. a weather equivalent would be to say.in los angeles we average twelve inches of rain a year and we usually have four rainstorms in february. it's the second week in february, it's probably going to rain. it is a completely separate question to say.can we recognise something that goes on in the earth, preparatory to a

particular earthquake.and this would be a deterministic prediction.the weather equivalent is seeing a storm front arrive. but we're at the point in seismology that we're just barely getting the connection between clouds and rain. we have no radar. we're not even sure what to look for.we haven't been able to prove that there's anything before our big earthquakes. (vo)so, for the time being at any rate, predicting exactly when an earthquake will occur in order to save lives seems as impossible as ever. however, scientists in north america have come up with a new method of earthquake study which seems, on the face of it, to provide at least part of the answer. they believe that all earthquakes along a particular fault line are related. and, as one earthquake occurs, it sets off a chain reaction

which can trigger another one along the same fault. the phenomenon is known as an earthquake storm, a term coined by professor amos nur, a geophysicist at stanford university, california. but the person who came up with the theory in the first place was dr ross stein of the usgs. in june 1992 while monitoring the effect of a major earthquake in the yucca valley near the town of landers, california, stein picked up on another earthquake just three hours later at a place called big bear about 25 miles to the west along the same fault line. this led him to believe that far from being no more than an aftershock, the earthquake at big bear had been triggered by the earlier one at landers. >>so the way we set this

software up was to give us a visual sense in which areas were more likely to produce earthquakes and more hazardous were turning red and areas that were farther from failure were blue. we were hunting for the possibility that big bear occurred in the region of one of these red lobes where the stress was jacked up by the occurrence of the landers earthquake. (vo)stein discovered that the big bear quake occurred right in the middle of the red lobe. but was this a coincidence? >>and so what we were to depend on were not just that one earthquake regardless of its size, but the three to four thousand other aftershocks that occurred in the first few weeks. were those also occurring in the red zones? (vo)after further study stein found that the majority of aftershocks from the landers quake had actually taken place in the red zones. >>it now looked to us like this

kind of earthquake interaction was likely. fellow scientists all over the world studied stein's findings with great interest. (vo)had he discovered a way of predicting earthquakes? (vo) every week night, cenk uygur calls out the mainstream media. >> overwhelming majority of the country says tax the rich, don't go to war.

in the summer of 1998 professor geoffrey king from the institut de physique du globe in paris, applied the earthquake storm theory to the north anatolian fault in turkey. using a computer model based on and his team came up with a

number of locations running east to west along the fault where he thought earthquakes most likely. he then compared his predictions with past history. astonishingly this showed that between 1939 and 1967 seven earthquakes had occurred at the precise locations king had identified along the fault line. the theory that the stress generated by one earthquake could trigger another even many years later was holding up well. king predicted that at some indeterminate point in the future an earthquake was likely in the bay of izmit. the warning duly went out but it was treated with almost complete indifference. this was a tragic mistake.because in august 1999; just a year after king made his prediction, izmit was hit with a

devastating earthquake which resulted in the death of at least 17,000 people. >>as the scale of the disaster became clear, we were clearly right in our prediction. but this is on the one hand, do you want as a scientist to be right. but on the other hand, you hope you're not right because you realise that the red areas that you calculate represent many deaths. tens of thousands of potential deaths. while the storm theory provides pretty convincing evidence that earthquakes will occur in sequence along the same fault, it still can't say exactly when. so, predicting the timing of an earthquake seems as much of a mystery as ever.

however, while they may not know when an earthquake will strike people in earthquake zones can take steps to protect themselves against the inevitable day. this includes designing and erecting buildings to strict seismic codes. >>i think there will always be unpredicted earthquakes. if you look at the problem rationally would you rather have two hours to get out of a building or a building that doesn't fall down in the first place.i'd rather have the building that doesn't fall down and have a job and a home to come back to.but all along prediction has never been there because of a rational decision about the hazard associated it's an emotional issue because it's the unpredictability that's frightening. (vo)the usgs estimate that up to 1.5 million earthquakes occur every year around the world. that's an average of 41,000 a day.

most of these lie in the two to 4.9 on the richter scale and pose little threat. but around 1500 measure between five and 7.9. at least one will reach eight or more. and if such an earthquake hits an urban area the consequences will be dire. earthquakes will continue to be nature's most devastating and deadly force. awesomely destructive, unstoppable and utterly unpredictable.

♪ >> well on "the young turks" we've got an awesome show for you tonight. ridiculous, fantastic, you know what? i've got my own star panel. look at this guy, michael shure epics politics man, ana kasparian, the reverend jayar jackson. we're going to talk about religion, whether it's fair game, and the brilliant, well sometimes brilliant comedian jimmy dore.