it is nine pm on the u.s. east coast a ballot counting is now underway will there be a shift in the balance of power works in the world waiting for the first verdict from american voters on u.s. president double drop this is d. w. news special coverage of the u.s. midterm elections. we will make america safe again. america is at a crossroads that. was what texans want we want to build the wall character of our nation is all that. we.

prayed again thank you missouri thank you. and state by state polls are closing in the united states will americans choose to follow the lead of president republican party or push for changes to be brought by the democrats in the battle for control of both the house and the senate he decided tonight's news is special u.s. . coverage starts right now. good to have you with us tonight much of the world is shifting its attention to the united states waiting to see if there will soon be a shift in power there tuesday was the most closely watched midterm election in modern u.s. history voters are choosing a new congress with. all seats in the house of representatives up for grabs and the

majority of seats in the u.s. senate as well let's take a look right now at the standings in the battle for the house of representatives as it stands right now there's nothing new at this hour to report but you see the magic number there two hundred eighteen that's the number of seats that either party has to get in order to even begin talking about controlling that chamber and let's also take a look now at where things stand in the u.s. senate we do have that one race to report bernie sanders has one reelection in the state of vermont and you see right there fifty is the magic number both parties want to get fifty although we have to remind people that the vice president does have voting rights in the u.s. senate might pence republican making it easier for the republicans then to break a tie if need be well a very important part of our coverage of this is george midterm election is coming from the capital of the united states our washington bureau chief alexander

phenomena she joins me now from capitol hill good evening to you alexander so it's nine pm where you are just after nine pm where you've we've got a couple of exit polls coming out of c.b.s. exit poll telling us that this midterm election in the minds of most voters has been a referendum on the trump presidency and that's what you have seen in your reporting isn't it. yes you totally right because we are talking here about president tun trump who is such a polarizing figure such a divider and at every rally he campaigned at he was calling a poet upon his supporters to pretend that his name is on the ballot and to vote republican so he wanted these midterm elections to be old and volatile and i talked to many of his supporters and they told me that they wanted to show that they support the president's policies and that's the reason for them to cast their votes

although there are of course many issues that are important to them issues such as immigration they want to presidents to build the wall at the border to mexico and economy and i also talked to many. critics democrats or voters who are registered as independents and stay told me that they want to send a strong message to the white house that they are upset that they are angry with the president actions and with his if you see it as divisive rhetoric what the exit polls are not also showing is that more people were concerned about health care then immigration when they went into the blues there to vote today does that suggest that the us president was wrong do you give that single hammer to the issue of immigration especially the last week or so of this campaign

. it's good we know that this topic the health care is health care it's very important for the democrats and for many us citizens who are afraid that the trams adminstration is going to scrap every provision of our care and to death they are going to lose their coverage so this is a very huge issue but i also talked to many people many voters in arizona and texas and they did tell me that immigration is also a very important topic for them the question here is however whether more people do support the president hard line stance on the immigration or whether more people are repelled by his divisive rhetoric by his strategy fear mongering on the issue of immigration and race or and our washington bureau chief for norman on the story for us tonight there on capitol hill or xander thank you.

and back here in the studio here at the big table i'm joined on my far right is yon to show he is the rector of the german marshall fund of the united states here in berlin and right beside me here on the right is my colleague. who cross from the newsroom gentlemen good to have you here let me start with you young and just ask you what what are we looking at tonight i mean still it's still early but the hope is that a blue wave that the democrats. victory is going to happen tonight at least in the u.s. house of repartee zip it is it a realistic hope. that seems to have been a realistic hope from the outset the numbers here the pretty good for democrats structurally we have relatively high voter turnout which could play into democrats hands we heard that you know democrats are slightly more motivated to go out and cast or ballots so you know mobilization which is

a creaky issue in this in this bill it seems to be slightly favoring them so it's definitely a possibility and so you know the most likely outcome is the one that we've been into supporting for a while which is democrats take control of the house republicans retain control of the senate and we have some sort of split you know parliament with which the president has to work. to get any of these results you got to have people being motivated to vote and you've been looking you've been looking at that what motivates people. to go out and do that and what got them revved up this election season has very interesting you know is a lot of data out there a lot of polls but i like to look at one quite comprehensive poll it's in a poll that a.p. put out that's actually replaced their exit polling or not doing exit polling and if we can put that up on the screen we're seeing that health care is taking the top spot and now we're seeing health care at twenty six percent is the reason it is over the top issue for voters polled fall by immigration twenty three percent and then it's the economy that's actually lagging behind in one thousand percent with

some other issues the. we'll get to touch on a bit later and this actually makes a lot of sense because the g.o.p. has gone big on trying to kill obamacare the affordable care act last several years they failed many times they weaken it they succeed in the weaken it and so we're seeing this reverse for years for many several election cycles we've had the dems the democrats diff on the defensive running away from obama's health care plan you have republicans hit over the head at every chance they can yeah now it's which when i look at the numbers there it makes me think when bill clinton was running for president and we heard you know it's the economy stupid yes but actually you would be stupid if you thought that it's just about the economy well it is about the economy is not about the economy as it is about the economy and health care is an economic issue immigration is an economic issue in fact you know the fed chairman jerome powell just last week who dolphins' not a big fan of said that we actually need immigration i say it's needs immigration if we want to continue this economic growth so all of these things are aspects of the

economy but they're being they're coming out in different ways and he you know he fits into this especially when we're talking about immigration absolutely i mean he's had trouble running on the economy because a lot of his courtroom supporting destroyed the trump districts g.o.p. districts haven't quite felt the this this macro growth this map all the macro indicators haven't quite been felt their actual real wage growth is barely keeping up with inflation the tariffs are hurting a lot of his core constituencies so he's had to shift to find something else to find ways to break off and keep that coalition that's immigration ok so he can brag about the economy. base lives and works because they cause they're not actually feeling you know going all the things all these populist things he promised in two thousand and sixteen it's actually it's been tax cuts for the wealthier part of the society in corporations it's been the tariffs that have been hurting you know

soybean farmers in particular and that gives back what we were seeing. earlier this evening it is for is the rhetoric in the united states not only being polarized but the fear factor is i mean it's really been for donald trump it's been the weapon of choice as it when an election depends to such a high degree on mobilization instead of convincing the other side of the oh better argument you know then i'm scared technics emotionalizing you know the entire debate is one of the key things that you want to do and this is why immigration is not played as you say you know as the economic issue that it really is at at the core but it's played as an identity issue in the faded as as an issue that can create the kinds of emotions that you need to mobilize so in when we're worried about emotions we're worried about being scared we're obviously not talking about something what's not being talked about was i mean you know we haven't heard anything about foreign policy i haven't heard anything about what happened to iraq afghanistan you know military permille america's military presence around the world climate change hasn't been anywhere on the topic i mean we saw on the graph the

a.p. poll say seven percent for the environment were related to climate change and then local issues you know the congress comes out to districts on a very small level a lot of parts of america local issues have kind of been drowned out over this you know this over ark arching we like trump we don't like trump they used to say all politics is local and now all local politics are nationalized is i guess that's part of the trump factor is well gentlemen thank you very much we have mentioned it is already the midterms are a referendum on dollar drops presidency the large number of voters that have turned out indicate that the president whole arised opinions across the u.s. now according to an a.p. national poll six out of ten voters see the president as having an influence on their vote with forty percent casting their votes in opposition to the president and about twenty five percent voting to express their support or reporting i'll take a look at the trump factor in the u.s. midterm elections. on the complaints well again in north carolina nevada

arizona although his name is not on the ballot donald trump wants these midterms to be about him he is firing up his supporters by grabbing some of the most divisive issues and using them to keep his base afraid and furious the democrats are becoming angry unhinged mob determined to get power by any means necessary everything we do they can destroy very quickly jemma crat victory in november would be a bright flashing invitation to every traffickers buckler drug dealer and illegal alien on the planet come on and. his supporters love what they describe as telling it like it is. i love him i think he's chosen by god to help us hopefully he'll build a wall and do it quickly keeping his base angry with this strategy carried him to

the white house in twenty sixteen trump is hoping it will work this time as well donald trump has built his political career on railing against other people telling crowds whom they should fear and hate he is president not despite his nasty rhetoric but because of it in recent weeks however trams tone has increasingly come under scrutiny after an outspoken trump supporter was charged in connection with an attempted bombing spree that targeted high profile critics of the president and c.n.n. . and after an anti-semitic mass shooting at a synagogue in pittsburgh. the suspect had threatened to online against jews and migrants words do matter says to ron as it's a director of the anti-defamation league in washington and organization fighting anti-semitism and he believes that public figures like the president should be aware of that fact it's very difficult to divorce some of the philosophy and the

espousals of a people as being enemies or people as being threats to the actual actions that have taken place it is words have implications and they unfortunately sometimes lead to violent action mike immediately after the latest attacks the president did make a point of decrying political violence calling for national unity and more civility in public life and his press secretary fiercely defends him very much as a temporary first thing that the president did was condemn the attacks both in pittsburgh and in the pipe bombs the very first thing the media did was blame the president and make him responsible for these ridiculous acts that is outrageous but nevertheless trump refuses to tone down his rhetoric blaming the media for what is going on in the country and continuing his campaign of fear mongering about issues

such as any gratian and race he hopes that will pay off on election day. all right back here at the big table with now is young ten shot with the german marshall fund of the united states here in berlin young how do you explain to europeans when you're talking about europe's relationship with the united states how do you explain to them u.s. voters telling their our reporters that they believe donald trump has been chosen by god to lead the country what kind of conversation do you have that well yeah i mean that's that's a tough one. because you know we in europe by and large do not tend to make this religious aspect of politics you know so prominent very few people are actually really motivated by politics here in europe by and large i mean a you would even hear that in italy you know which of the vatican you want to hear it know it's that's that kind of discussion is over and so in the western world

that's you know a you know basically a distinctly american kind of flavor out there but you know you if you want to i mean it's not my job to convince them but if you want to take them on who you first got understand where they do come from and often in the u.s. this christian of them and you know which is the new testament thing is really an old testament thing and that leads to certain attitudes views of the israel of the u.s. a chosen idea or the chosen people you know shining city on a hill the entire myth of being a chosen kind of bunge is deeply ingrained in the u.s. identity and it can be triggered and religion has been on the rise in the us as a factor for about a generation so you know it's hard to get into that debate from a european perspective and there's this level of religiosity in the united states it is it is higher is it's high as it's ever been to that i can remember and yet you have a u.s. president who. is not known for being particularly religious and yet he is considered the president of the evangelicals i mean how do you explain that

europeans i mean how did he become the anointed one i mean for the for the christian voters it's not so important that he personally and hears to all of the teachings and all of the rules of their faith what's more important is that he delivers on some of the legislative issues that they have and as long as he seems to be doing that they forgive you know his own lifestyle which is you know decidedly not there so this is a question of agency really he is an agent for their political agenda and as long as he performs that function you know it's not really important where he personally stands on the religious issues that matters to them you know intentional director of the german marshall fund of the united states here in berlin interesting analysis young thank you you thank. well i'm joined tonight by most by her she is a member of the drop twenty twenty advisory board that is a board to advise the u.s. president on his reelection she's former finance co-chair of the republican

national committee as well because good to have you on the program on this election this midterm election night let me ask you though i mean is it way way premature to even begin thinking about twenty twenty for donald trump. donald trump this forward thinking the day after his inauguration he filed the paperwork for twenty twenty so the campaign has been going full steam ahead since february of last year and that's one of the reasons that trump has been out campaigning so hard is that he understood that history is not with the party in the white house during midterms and it's really entrusting because normally people can't be bothered to vote during a midterm election and this time just with early voting in the twenty two states that allow it we saw a twenty one percent increase already over twenty fourteen and sixteen percent new

voters so a lot of that is a trunk factor would be that it is a trump factor but you know your remember this is well as i do that two years ago during the campaign trump said that he was going to drain the swamp and he was going to get rid of all of these established these establishment politicians and yet as soon as he was elected he started campaigning again that's what the establishment politicians have been doing as long as i can remember so why is he different than the rest of the the stuff that was in this wall. here is the great disruptor and remember he was underestimated by pundits people were taken by surprise i thought that hellery clinton would win in two thousand and sixteen and what he has done is absolutely amazing it's always been about the economy the very famous political strategist under clinton james carville said it's the economy stupid and in this case trump has delivered results three point seven

percent unemployment four point zero per. one it's about what is it he talked about that the president was announced why he was almost ignoring the good economic data and he said it's because people get bored with good news yeah well i think that is true that people become complacent and they don't get out and vote and they're motivated by anger and if you'll remember in two thousand and sixteen he tapped into the collective anger in this country he kind of threw a hand grenade into the establishment and people felt disenfranchised and left behind and we've had many walk away individuals from the democratic party so that's a wild card tonight are the end of pendants and also the millennial and their registration. and they normally as a voting block don't show up to vote in stormily older people and you know the most important block tonight will be suburban women and we've seen already that this is

a year the women and we've got a record number of female candidates running in the democratic party and so that's an interesting electoral part to watch but these are not about him out for trouble and i don't think it will help me to understand your calculus here because you do we've got a lot of women a record number of women running for public golf is in the united states but most of those are in the democratic party and they say they've been motivated because of their disdain for double trouble. yes well of absolutely i mean trump is technically not on the ballot but people are motivated on both sides to come out there either for donald trump or against donald trump we're a very polarized nation i will say that i think that the contentious kavanaugh hearing suspend a factor to motivate both sides there were women who felt that the need to move men

had gone too far that a innocent man in the united states could be accused by a mere accusation of sexual misconduct on the other side it galvanized democrats who were all for me to move meant that what i think that was really about was a conservative agenda with trump because trump if if we prevail and we absolutely could during this midterm i realize history is not with us now whatever if we did prevail it does provide the opportunity for two more supreme court justices to be nominated in the next couple of years. ok unfortunately or are time is up but we certainly appreciate you taking the time to talk with those tonight maybe most barker joining us tonight from washington d.c. lesser say. and we're going to keep the story in washington right now i'm joined by bob baer he is with us term limits in washington d.c.

that's an organization that advocates for term limits at all levels of government in the united states was very good to have you on the program tonight i don't know if you had a chance to listen to that interview there that i just conducted with it you know someone who's a member of the advisor of the trunk twenty twenty committee let me ask you not about term limits but about the u.s. being in a constant perpetual campaign mode is that something that in your opinion from where you stand is that something that is that's good for american democracy. it's really hard to say but you're right about that it's something that i remember watching this for many many years in this town i deliver anymore but when i was a kid i remember that was a complaint that it seemed like every year just like you know the christmas music would start earlier and earlier it seemed like the elections would start right after the previous one and i'm not sure that it's

a good thing i can tell you one thing that's it gets very tiresome from the standpoint of the electorate there's a huge fatigue factor i even spoke some of my friends today who are not in politics in any way and they all just universally were glad that this is over campaign is over but as you just heard from my guest there from mika most bucker it's not over i mean as soon as we get the results of tonight to morrow both sides republicans and democrats will begin campaigning twenty for twenty. that's very true and you know it's kind of funny because of all the conversations i've had a day everybody asks me how i think things are going to go and i'm the only one they know that actually answers a question i always routinely answer and i can tell you with eighty five ninety percent certainty they have the incumbents are going to be the winners tonight ok and how can you be so sure of that. even in

a wave year so for instance if the if if this turns out to be one of the the periodic wave elections that we get where where you have a change of power in the house of representatives in particular in that case you still have eighty five percent of the incumbents who want to run again will be successful and it's interesting if you would look for is when the returns come up look for the asterisk and more often than not what you're going to see is when there's an asterisk which in the case of this is an incumbent who's running for reelection more often than up that is going to be the successful candidate ok so the incumbent has inertia on his or her side in your experience in these areas where there are term limits now because i think you've got what you've got fifteen state legislatures you've got term limits you've got. congressional term limits in twenty three states are you seeing

a qualitative improvement in governance. we are one really good example of this is michigan michigan has the strictest term limits for their state legislature of any state in the union and it is there that you have the most competitive seats and that's kind of the objective and one little small correction and that is that we do not have term limits any members of congress so at the congressional level they require a constitutional amendment that the result of a supreme court decision that came down in one thousand nine hundred five and so that's much of what i'm working on on a regular basis is our targets are really clearly congress we want to put term limits on members of congress so that really the it's a very modest asked the objective is just to provide for an open seat election at some regular interval however many years that is yet to be determined but the idea is that an incumbent can't just run forever because what we've seen is with every

succeeding reelection that incumbent gets stronger and stronger and stronger and it actually goes beyond the inertia you refer to and that's certainly true but really what they're able to do is they're able to build up a war chest they're able to do a lot of things they can really dial in. a bit of a fortress there and make it nearly impossible for them to be challenged and if that's the case you can imagine that has an effect on the kind of candidate they can be recruited to go up against that fortress but barry joining us tonight with us term limits of history we appreciate you taking the time to come into our world studio in washington and share your insights with this thank you very good thank you. you're watching special coverage of the u.s. midterm elections the turnout has been huge americans voting in workers numbers despite long waits and some technical glitches at the ballot box polls suggest that health care is at the forefront of voters' minds it's too early to tell whether

democrats will get a blue wave that they are looking for it will be following the developments right here and will be back at the top of the hour with the latest from the u.s. with our special coverage of the u.s. midterm election. only at full speed. was. always shining. but always on the move. mostly today and in the future. trying to. deliver. some love. others

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