it means and of course m.p.c. is a member of parliament the members of parliament they have constituencies they go home every week and they talk to people there and they know how insecure many people feel now about this whole great deal and how much they have the feeling that they have been betrayed that this is something else that this may not be what they voted for two years ago so it is a very difficult situation and she can't have a strategy she just tries to convince people she tries to bribe some people she'll get a few people on her side. to build a majority she would need such a big swing at the moment it's really you can really can't see where this majority could come from it's a political minefield certainly don't do too well when it comes to mind for you john worth is before just also. questions the visual distance screens right now. from the european council in brussels where we're expecting any moment you can

prime minister through some me to hold a press conference just to go to war barbara was saying about. the other members of the cabinet who might have potential. for the prime minister talked about a softer briggs and clearly that plan is not dead in the water although he's the threats that he made this morning or was reported by multiple newspapers was essential to say. four of the cabinet ministers under no circumstances want a new deal breaks if they crash out because there is known to be a group of five within the cabinet who like to resume a steal and would be willing to go that way so essentially how linda is saying it's for me it's to reason may's deal or else. and there are five in the cabinet who say to reason is not the right option we need to have a more radical breaks it so even teresa mayes and government is split in that respect how much it must be said is not trying. to go to brussels and renegotiate

how many is solidly behind the prime minister here but he's one of the very few parliamentarians on the conservative side who is very solidly back in may and he was also trying to make peace if one can call of that with the do you see the northern ireland party that props up the resume is government from the outside and the do you because already said that they don't accept this because of the back story we can discuss is philip could he be the gate of potential to bring the do you believe for example on board he can surely but what i what i don't fully read is that there's some personal problem in the relationship between the conservatives and the di you paid because ultimately the do you people what they wanted in this deal that in the end the whole of the u.k. would stay in a customs union with the e.u. at least for for c. for the forseeable future so i knew they would not be customs controls in the irish sea but still that the u.p.a. is not content and to me that looks like there's been a personal breakdown of trust between two reason mays team and the do you people editions perhaps philip hammond might have

a better chance of rebuilding that relationship of trust but to me that looks like a personal problem nor the actual substantive political problem let's go to barbara in london just based on the point of the deal your piece support the barbara. is the do you be essentially has the president made up its mind that it's not going to support troops or me as long as this deal is on the table. if you followed the party conference yesterday in belfast it certainly seems so because arlene foster reiterated that she would not vote for this deal she had invited boris johnson the most sort of intimate political enemy off may to speak there and so she really set the scene and the sense to make it clear that she was not on the signed off the prime minister. british newspaper is of course also speculate they say they do you could be bought off again they could

somehow get further advantages more money what ever it could be that entice them to vote for this breaks a deal but at the moment it looks as if they were digging their heels in we have two weeks we've mentioned that so a lot can change within two weeks but if that makes a complete turnaround that would be a surprise. all in foster who's going to have to make a turn and it's going to be plenty of other personalities we're going to have to me turn around from this day to pollutions is that what. potentially in the next two weeks or a possibility after maybe if the for the first vote is defeated in the u.k. parliament. it might even be a likely scenario that the first vote sort of votes the deal down particularly labor will say as a matter of principle because we absolutely are against the tories dead set and we

will absolutely make no concessions to them we say no and then we could see a rehash of the whole thing and said if new political alliances forming around a possible yes vote but that would then sort of be only possible in generally they could they would need a bit of time for that is so it is really unclear at the moment where things might be falling and where they might be going because for to reason may she really has to sort of try to shore up her deal and she's doing her best but she is not the greatest communicator she is not somebody who has close personal relationships to anybody in whole party or even on the opposition benches absolutely not and so she really can't put her personal weight. into this here into the scheme at the moment and she has to use the whips in parliament and she has to use the traditional

methods which probably will not get her that far so there is still time there's still a bit of time to play for here but at the moment it looks rather like stalemate. to apprise of yours if it does joining us to seeing visuals from europe and in brussels where we're expecting you can prime minister to resign me to address a press conference shortly this press conference would come after the press conference by you council president don't you commission president. the message from all three essentially was this this is the best deal possible is the only possible of course the focus now shifts to do you. know whether this deal will make it through the british parliament. john well political advisor is with us in the studio john mistress' trying to this month by month because it is just four months can see wanted to deal with. it all to be very little time what's going to

happen in the month what are we looking at in the u.k. so essentially. a window now we're about to go home for two or three weeks to resume a brings the deal from brussels today back to london we think that the so-called meaningful vote in the house of commons is scheduled for eleventh of december and there will be two days of debate about violence approval before that actual vote would then happen we assume at the moment looking at the numbers in parliament that she would not get the agreement passed the house of commons in that meaningful vote and after that we essentially do not know exactly what will happen she could herself resign it's ultimately unlikely she could be forced out by her conservative party there are always already been rumblings of no confidence into reason may's a behavior i do think that that would be foolish call by the conservative party because ultimately who else would do any better in such

a circumstance the labor party would try to seek a no confidence vote in the government but would probably not succeed because they have no majority no confidence in two reason may because ultimately while the conservatives dislike the reason may they still want to have a conservative government rather than letting labor in for a general election so all we can know emergency is how it's going to run basically until the eleventh of december after that is to resume a stay or go do you have to have a second vote on the withdrawal agreement would you decide that it would wish to hold a referendum all of that is open still after the eleventh of december it's very very difficult to predict what would happen ok let's run this one by one bob or a visual correspondent is following developments in london barbara you've been there for some time. in terms of the rebellion within the tory party and people not really getting behind me is that rebellion in terms of writing letters to the

internal one nine hundred twenty two committee seeking potentially a vote of no confidence is that still a danger or has that receded a bit into the background. has receded last week in no way of course because that was such an utter failure that you can hardly imagine the hard line breaks cheers under jacob riis mark to sort a lift their heads again and step out again to the public and say i add now we've got forty eight count of them and it's really forty eight i mean that was sort of like shameful narry but he was making fun of them and ridiculing them. of course is it is still possible in a way but it seems that main danger has passed however what really is a problem for to resume and what we saw john also just mention is that her own cabinet is really split several ways that she he she has people who are more or less on her side but who still don't like what's on the table that she has some

breaks the cheers who are andrea let's some for instance supposed to be again on the verge of resigning but of course all this is rumor and you have the affection of the bricks cheers and you have to faction off the this softer the remainders who are looking for a way forward it and so it is split each every way and what can she do is that i mean she can really sort of pluto is a straight line with a cabinet that is so split within itself and that is causing constant constant internal problems and strife and to having in toto struggles is so very difficult on that side and very difficult on the other side and of course the more the british public has to watch this and has to see this constant squabbling and constant infighting and the bigger the loss of trust of course in this whole political process and that also means the bigger the the loss of trust in this

whole breck's of process because it the whole thing seems utterly shambolic at the moment because if you look at the. if you look at parliament and you look at the cabinet the government and the two big political parties here they simply don't know where to go they simply don't know what to do next and what a reasonable and a good solution would be for also because there is no good solution but even a reasonable solution doesn't really seem close now it is an extremely appears to be an extraordinary situation everybody is criticizing this deal but nobody seems to really have an alternative. plan is this is therefore a matter of essentially political goals playing out in the political arena in the u.k. . it was a big ego play of course in the beginning this whole bricks of process and the oil is of course the big fight in the in the conservative party that goes back decades

i mean this has poisoned early conservative governments going back to the times of margaret thatcher really and this is all of us been there the seed of the bricks and the seed of turning away from europe the seed of the we're a big country and we stand up we can stand of on our own feet with a touch of nationalism there and it has fed particular political egos talking about boris johnson for instance and the unlikely rise of somebody like jacob riis marg into the public conscience who was a basically a back bencher or somebody like michael gove who is you know suspiciously quiet at the moment and somehow still waiting for his child's and who had really strongly supported breaks it in two thousand and sixteen and tried to be become prime minister so if you look at this whole scenario you see of course that there are people there who think they put can push through a completely different vision of what great britain could be what politics here

could look like and what the future of this country could be and so this clash is is ideological by the visit of course also ego driven strongly so but in the middle of all this we can forget that there was indeed a referendum john the majority of the u.k. want to do to leave the european union is that being delivered on the question is. referendum really need it was clear but that meant leaving the european union but which terms and how it was far from clear all of the economic advantages of still being in the european union were presented to the british population but we're not presenting any of the downsides and so ultimately what. presented in that referendum is no longer on offer and indeed never was on offer and that is ultimately the deception that there was at that referendum there are also big question marks about whether the referendum campaigns were even run legally because

both of the leave campaign organizations have both been seen to have broken campaigning finance rules so the question is what was on offer then is not even deliverable now and that is the main issue of why you plenty of people are the case in a second referendum is essential to say we now know what leave would look like here is an opportunity british population why don't you have a vote on that to determine is that worth going through without breaks a process or north of would that be another example of cherry picking and could that be the reason why the through so many government has ruled out a referendum in italy recent days the government has ruled that out because she is driven by her members of parliament and she is and they in turn to driven by the members of the conservative party the members of the conservative party are seventy five percent pro great sit they don't want another referendum because they fear in such a referendum the results may be different and so old from italy the reason that your reason may has raised opposed a referendum of her own political reasons it is not because ultimately she has

a kind of an ethical problem of some sort with the second referendum it's purely her own motivation to see these things through now she was herself formally in favor of remain but she was never been very committed to european union integration of self as an individual politician and so therefore she sees it as her responsibility in a single minded manner to deliver that breaks it somehow or of she has however completely reinterpreted what is now there was an issue about immigration in the brics referendum but there was also an issue about about britain's future trade relationships with the rest of the world those things have largely been forgotten in recent months by to resume a she's focus uniquely on the immigration point and so ultimately she finds.