was. this is not the kind of freedom that we want how did we become a gateway to islamist terror. an exclusive report from a destroyed city. in the sights of virus starts april eleventh on g.w. . below in a very warm welcome indeed to quadriga coming to you from the cost of the world and of the focus is on nato the north atlantic treaty organization which this week is marking its seventieth anniversary and seven decades of peace and prosperity however the celebrations in washington are clouded by grave concerns about the future of the military power its u.s. presidents donald trump a nato secretary general and back say the alliance will only stay strong if as

president trump has demanded member countries step up defense spending a message above all directed of course at germany meanwhile with nato members like turkey and hungry but also president trump himself openly flirting with letting their points in question here on quadriga is nato at seventy who is the enemy and to discuss that question i'm joined by three astute observers beginning with various clues editor in chief for hundreds black today who argues that militarily nato is as strong as ever politically though it's in crisis that's trumps fault but also says andrea jerome things found also with us is cloudy in my year old senior associates of the german institute for international and security of france who says how germany responds to questions like the two percent spending pledge arms exports to terence and. clear weapons will be crucial to europe's

security defense under very well. policy fellow at the european council of foreign relations and believes that germany's riskiness international credibility. dismal season real. well well. let me begin with you nato of course styles itself as the most successful military alliance in history is it right to do so i think it is right to do so because nato is indeed the most successful military alliance and nato for the last seventy years has guaranteed peace within europe peace in the transatlantic relationship and in fact really is a big and very important part of the transatlantic relationship and it seems to me that sometimes when we talk about the military aspect we seem to forget that this is also just the core pay. the transatlantic relationship which as we all know at the moment you know has its major problems and various a seven decade success story

maybe but the celebrations to mark the anniversary in washington have been described variously as restrained low key or even ugly what's the problem the problem is that there's a separation between the american public the american elite as represented in congress and the american president and if you notice the american public there's a bunch of new polls out is still for nato and has barely budged in europe but europe is also still for nato but has gone down a little republicans of course are much more skeptical which republicans though and that's where that is the second constituency to just mention is congress they invited back the secretary general of nato to address a joint session and that's a great way of sending a signal i believe that's the way americans and a signal to the white house they did the same when they in the congress did the same when they invited benjamin netanyahu to address a joint session during the obama years that was a way of saying to obama hey. pay attention you're going to treat this guy better

because we want you to treat him well congresses before nato and behind nato and the republicans as well i think and it's just really trump and his character characters around him that have sowed so much they're ok cloudy every u.k. guardian newspaper carried a piece saying that the secret of nato as long life i'm quoting here is that it is not just a military alliance and support we heard earlier if you go along with that yes i think that the particular strengths of nato of twenty nine and soon thirty member states if all those countries agree if they stick together if they really show solidarity that's a really strong signal so that means that the political cohesion the political credibility actually makes the military slings if you're talking one country or you have the whole nato that's going to respond and that's an enormous sign of strains that we're sending that also means if their internal problems. the military

weakness and the political weakness is getting bigger and that's a problem which we have in the moment we have on the one hand problems inside europe with germany was turkey we see ok so there are struggles potent and then in addition we have the transatlantic problems so one of the big kind of a half how we keep the in the cohesion how they keep us on a devotee bit because only if it's united there's the lions it's going to be strong it's going to be credible in terms of defense and deterrence and that's a major challenge at the moment ok some very interesting opening statements there lots to talk about before we do that talking let's have a look at what the nato military alliance is all about and we're going to begin at the beginning with a signing in one thousand nine hundred forty nine of the north atlantic treaty often called the washington treaty. shortly after the second world war ended twelve countries founded the north atlantic treaty organization among them britain france belgium the united states and canada. the western allies saw

a need to contain the soviet union and mount a swift defense against a potential soviet attack the principle was that an attack on any nato member would be seen as an attack against. the fall of the berlin wall and the soviet union's breakup brought a fundamental shift in the geopolitical situation. nato except in eastern european and baltic countries as members of the threat from asymmetrical conflicts and terrorism worldwide forced the alliance to revise its strategy. u.s. president trump has injected uncertainty into the nato alliance how does the future for nato. talk about the future of who in essence at this point in time who or war is the. as if it is always the case the answer is more complicated. no i wouldn't say that

the main and then yes russia i don't think that that's the situation at the moment that being said you know in terms of actual military threats yes i do think that europe is still somewhat militarily by russia and that's why it is important also important to have nato but nato really goes beyond that and that's what i meant with my opening statement about you know political cohesion nato us about the alliance the political alliances between the transatlantic countries so it's not i don't think it's helpful to frame with this idea of you know who's the main threat . we must not be naive about the russian. guy and i and i agree with that and i think you know within within europe there's a lot of the bad about the tension. no one really knows and there is a lot of this agreement among european allies on that and yes we absolutely shouldn't be naive but i don't i don't want to make the argument that we need to nato only because of russia time has moved on we're no longer in

a cold war and nato has been doing many things other than you know just see the fend against russia there are many other threats out there it's a scary world i made my list claudia china cyber threats terrorism hybrid warfare and migration i don't know what you have to us about how can they continue the continued to do friend successfully nine hundred thirty million people from twenty nine different countries against all verbs for its. my first my first reaction when might surprise you but i think the precondition to actually think about successful defense is sticking together as a political union because only if you have all countries agreeing that you need to do something nato remains relevant and then you have to think about what's the short term problem and what's the long term problem so in the short term or middle term you obviously have russia russia just why elated the i know the one which abolished of a bit intimidated nuclear weapons system so there's

a problem they have a military problem in the same time you have civilization issues on the southern flank of nato so failing states of corruption all this what you have on the in the kind of southern area of europe and that's and then you have to look beyond i think one of the issues about the europeans need to think and they do it needs to think of china the americans agree that the next life would be for the covered actually is great power competition russia and mainly china so the question for us europeans is do we agree what does it mean do we have an active role to play do we have a kind of more passive role to play so i think we need to differentiate what i've had to do now and tomorrow what we have to do in the future and we really important question what can need to do on its own military things and for what it needs partners there are many things like the hundreds of i think you mentioned or or what is cyber war that's when they do has only a little role to play with the european union or states have much more to offer so

i think there are many questions we need to answer first. those questions well you've put twenty of them in the last five seconds but i mean the i would say i completely agree that it's not the russia is not the only threat and that nato we've had this for twenty thirty years out of area or out of business this debate of where should you know how far should nato go but i think russia is the most immediate threat and in fact the more immediate it is as a threat the more easily nato will the twenty nine soon thirty will be able to maintain that political cohesion and just remain reminded of that famous definition of nato from the very first secretary general or it is may have said they just purposes to keep the americans in the russians out and the germans down and it's interesting what has changed and what hasn't we're worried a little bit because of trump and some others in america about america's staying in we're still what hasn't changes we're still want to keep the russians out and what's completely changed is the germans we don't want nobody wants to keep them

down except they themselves and that's part of the problem so if you think of lore it is misquote i mean we would do well to focus on the immediate threat and by the way cyber warfare and russia are almost the same threat so we have that i mean there's also from others so that's the same threats hybrid warfare is again russia i mean they wouldn't go in with tanks into the baltics they would send green men and take down a few computers and spread fake news go out again after they would make nato look foolish so that nato starts bickering with each other that's the problem so i think it is russia. as before and not all the members are playing you know playing their fair share at the moment can i just briefly. about the united states i think we worry quite a lot about the united states leaving and withdrawing from nature and this isn't just a trump issue i mean we've all seen these reports in the new york times elsewhere

well. donald trump said that he's considering withdrawing from nato and it is true that congress doesn't want that nevertheless for the united states the strategic outlook in the world really hostile and i do think that you know in terms of interests united states interests in europe are different now than they were while seventy years ago but even fifty or thirty years ago the united states still needs europe to some extent and the united states still needs europe to be you know peaceful but i do think that the outlook is way more towards the east towards asia towards china and i think we as europeans and as crucially important we as europeans need to understand that there is a change of you know american interests and keeping the americans in is an important aspect of it but also europeans need to build up their own capabilities can you quantify the likelihood that donald trump will announce the u.s. withdrawal from that so in the year this year. it has been actively room the german i was talking about these articles from the u.s. you know the and we've got back as well saying that as there's great concern among

the europeans about the next tweets there is there is one small foot mode militarily america has been building up its nato commitment the rhetoric from the president is going the other way but that's when even the secretary general is concerned there's a tweet is going to land on his table or in his mobile device the donald trump is going to announce it's the end of the story but i think the i mean we have two scenarios one is he just moved out everybody else shocked but i think it's a maybe most dangerous more dangerous scenario is that he's just not interested in if he doesn't leave tonight night it does need to leave nato so we do we can it if the u.s. is politically less committed if their military would be less committed if they don't talk we have a highly of both nato and the allies if they just say i'm evil but people on this or maybe germany is not a good ally maybe a way to committed that's already a problem because again the credibility of nato is all countries be. being together

and if the biggest ally the most important in military political and nuclear terms if this says actually i don't whately care anymore than they do has a major problem and them to come towards or recover i could just mention. what is our european i'm so ready to take questions it's not a me or your read one. contributor journalists are but it's time for the europeans to tend their own garden. you know in the ninety's when the bottom will start as one of the european petition says this is you know if you go up there and you know what happened afterwards it wasn't the all of europe so i'm all of us a bit concerned i think it's the europeans don't have a choice they need to do more in security on the phone to do it they need to do a lot more. but they should have little bit shy away from this big rhetoric which we often have in europe so we need to think about what we should do what we can do

without the us always a little hard to predict what that points shy away from the big resurrect the big rhetoric that i know for example from the security conference an influential voice here in germany said it is time now europe's political task is its own emancipation it's not too much well first of all i like your metaphor that you just pulled up about tending to your gardening is that what is that evokes bunch of aging europeans cutting rosebushes well there's tanks on the outside so that tending the garden is exactly the problem i know one thing is sure is that she did call so do a lot of people i don't see any of it even on the horizon again the germans are part of the problem we can i'm sure get to that but they don't have the same military or geostrategic traditions the french the germans the others and they attack it in the typical european way with bureaucracy and acronyms so you have a lot of things they're named pescado and card but they can't even agree that that's a point you've made claudia the french germans can't even agree on what what arms

to export to which countries given that they supply components to the same weapons sometimes they're there at loggerheads over everything and i think the chance that pushed that if there was an actual security crisis like the russian attack of some sort that these armies would fight as one army in the coming generation is very low . just sort of talking about the possibilities that the europeans have the options that the europeans need to address of the top of the show in your state even cloudier you talked about nuclear weapons were you talking about germany or possibly accessing a nuclear option at some stage in the future no i was talking i was talking more largely about deterrence in europe than last year the us openly accused rochelle fighting the un of treaty and now both countries are going to walk out of the treaty that was a milestone office acuity order in europe and that actually shows that we have

a return of nuclear weapons in security and in defense of europe that's a very unpleasant topic but the questions are europeans need to ask is what are we going to do if washer has nuclear weapons pointed to europe what does our answer in europe we see us is it a conventional answer is it the disarmament initiative so we don't like that topic particularly we don't like it in germany but we need to talk about what is our reaction and the second nuclear topic which we have is if the us is less interested in europe. but in the same time as u.s. provides a nuclear attacks europe just is less interested what we are going to do is that a replacement is a franco british and so it's a european answer and this it nuclear question is the germans because the germans participate in the nuke i did when it was epic which are too old and needs to be replaced so that you can questions coming from all angles and particularly in germany it's a very easy unpleasant topic but we need to talk about it and that's going to be

i'm afraid it's going to be a big mess as you ok let's talk about germany donald trump has repeatedly suggested that american above all germany freeloader this and there are other nato members who believe that germany is not exactly what might be seen as a reliable partner let's just get a taste of the case for and against germany. germany's helping in mali with troops supporting the united nations mission in this west african trouble spot there training mali and security forces among other tasks. and in afghanistan with some twelve hundred troops the german military is the second biggest contributor of personnel to nato is resolute support mission after the u.s. . and with the rapid response force germany is currently leading the spearhead of nato. it was formed as the ukraine crisis unfolded as a deterrent against russia. something of a deterrent to germany's contribution is its defense budget. finance minister old

off shots plans to cut it back to one point two three percent of g.d.p. by two thousand and twenty three far below nato is envisioned goal of two percent. chance that america is still counting on one and a half percent until two thousand and twenty four. that's it for us to fulfill this stated obligation i stand behind that and so does the german government. can the nato partners rely on germany. andreas earlier this year german foreign minister from the lion said nato is about decency and dependability and not just cash in contributions the word dependability is important that more and more of germany's allies are beginning to doubt that germany is a reliable act so what's your take on a lot they're not wrong i mean i'm not sure they're right but they're not wrong and this goes back you have to understand this is not about trump this goes back

several administrations. defense secretary gates in the w. bush administration came out strongly criticizing the germans they've just been more diplomatic and that's just the americans but the other partners as well and germany clearly has to do the things that has been trying to cash in its alleged peace dividend after the cold war and it has let its army navy and air force just go to rags i mean there's a submarines that don't float and airplanes that don't fly and all of that and that's now well documented and that's not and that goes against the grain and i think the germans are now wrong as merkel and her finance minister scholtz as they like to do is to split hairs over how whether a percentage of g.d.p. is a good figure or not you know that would suggest you get a recession if you so many make this right you don't want them to do is become an incredibly important symbolic debate where the actual money is willing to pull its weight it's not just symbolic i mean number one i think it chip eve relatively

clear that germany needs to invest more in its military simply in terms of capabilities as was mentioned there are so many systems that do not work we haven't we don't have as many people in uniform as we would like to so i think there's first of all a need for more investment that needs to be fulfilled but the second point of course is the dependability and i travel a lot you know within europe i go to paris they go to walsall and i don't think berlin realizes to what extent it has lost really the trust all they have cooler and i want you were. further you mean the berlin political analyst leadership there is no i don't and i don't know that all study know that germany's credibility is at risk but whenever i talk to them they tell me oh you know what don't trust the numbers we currently have on the table it's going to go up i mean defense spending right it's going to go up in the budget process is going to be fine we're going to get towards the one point five percent from what do you say to that sofa straight when it's presented to you i say i look at the numbers that are actually on the table as do all the other european and transatlantic allies and we see that we were

nowhere near the one point five the germany said it's going to achieve and of course we are nowhere near the two point two percent that germany set by twenty twenty four and this isn't a terrible signal and quite honestly no i don't think that the berlin establishment really realizes how badly that reflects. the dynamic i've been seeing is is intriguing to me if i want to test it on you i believe that for the last few years since then president gallup gave a speech at the munich security conference that the berlin elites the people around this part of town actually do understand that germany's allies are having doubts but there's no but the german public is completely uncoupled from this elite and there's no zero courage on the part of members of this elite to explain it to them they all for specially in the in the social democratic party and stuff you do not want to touch is like the third rail of german politics so i think no one's

actually brought foreign policy security policy and the need to arm for real threats to the public and if they know that the public doesn't want to doesn't want to hear directly that it would be the actual action i think the public actually is well they're willing to listen to that but the problem is not we talk about numbers we talk about one points we want one for one point five don't we to talk about defense and we don't really talk about strategy and i think one of the major problems germany has a dozen lots in defense i mean if you look at the defense budget ten years ago or twenty thirty. there were thirty three billion or forty three so things moved indeed and germany is doing a lot to nato but on the other hand then comes the domestic debate in the kind of party politics and then germany is sending mixed messages what you mention so the question is restrict or not stream not stray into the pipeline and then the same time to do a lot of deterrence and defense in the east so our partners say what you actually want you want to do that up on project with the russians or you want to defend us against the russians then we have to export problem on the one hand we want to

build a city to go thomas europe is friends with big industrial flexible projects but then we don't want to export them so our partners say you know obviously in terms of credibility of deniability we don't really know what you want and that's the same with a one point five or two percent defense budget become a talk about what you that's what isn't the whole day and then it's about strengthening the institutions to do what it actually is and they to you you when you say maybe not so there is a kind of gap between what we do and what we talk about and that's a major problem and if these two are not doing well. i couldn't say it any better you see the the the seven decade problems have been since we're talking about that on the seventieth birthday of nato for seven decades germany has outsourced its security to the big brother the united states and it has it has basically shirked in studio and it it hasn't understood that it the big brother is fed up with that

and it has to do something itself and it is just in denial and that's the part of the public debate i was criticizing. maybe just one point on the public it is true that the german public tends to be more pacifist than other countries and doesn't like the military as much that's all true however i increasingly get the impression that german politicians almost like to hide behind this alleged public opinion because i do think that almost no one even takes the initiative to try to explain these kind of fundamental. about military capabilities about the nature of all the transatlantic relationship the relationship you know our the fans and kind of brings this to the public's i think hiding behind and if no one even tries to make the argument well then public opinion also just isn't going to change i'm afraid we're going to have to get that thank you very much oh shrinking from being outed i would rather go i hope we have given you plenty of food for thought on the question old nature at seventeen who is the enemy you've enjoyed the show come by

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