when you're close faster everyone but. the lack of water is equally dangerous. there's junk you can't sleep will move south so they can plant crops and try and feed themselves to. floods and droughts with climate change become the main driver of mass migration you can write any kind of peace not if you want and probably most of them will come to. the climate exodus starts it will thirty years on t w. a lot of very warm welcome indeed to quadriga coming to you from the cost of burley to the focus is all of nato the north atlantic treaty organization which this week is marking its seventeenth anniversary and seven decades of peace and prosperity

however the celebrations in washington a clouded by grave concerns about the future of the military its u.s. president donald trump and nato secretary general young starting back say the alliance will only stay strong if as president trump has demanded member countries step up defense spending a message above all directed of course at germany meanwhile with nato members like turkey and hungry but also president trump himself openly flirting with flooding airports in question here on quadriga is nato at seventy who is the enemy and to discuss that question i'm joined by three astute observers beginning with i'm various kluges editor in chief for hundreds but today who argues that militarily nato is as strong as ever politically it's in crisis that's trump's folds but also says andrea he's found also with his cloud your mind your senior associates or the judge. an institute for international and security affairs

besides how many responds to questions like the two percent spending pledge. to terence and nuclear weapons will be crucial for europe's security defense and a very warm welcome to. policy follower of the european council of foreign relations and believes that germany is risking its international credibility laden does not even realize. the reka let me begin with you nato of course styles itself as the most successful military alliance in history is it right to do so i think it is right to do. it the most successful military alliance and nato for the last seventy years has guaranteed peace with europe peace in the transatlantic relationship and in fact really is a big very important part of the transatlantic relationship and it seems to me that sometimes when we talk about the military aspect we seem to forget that this is also just the core of the transatlantic relationship which as we all know at the

moment you know has its major problems. of seven decades success story maybe but the celebrations to mark the anniversary in washington have been described variously as restrained low key or even ugly what's the problem the problem is that there's a separation between the american public the american elite as represented in congress and the american president and if you notice the american public there's a bunch of new polls out is still for nato and has barely budged in europe but europe is also still for nato but has gone down a little republicans of course are much more skeptical which republicans though and that's where that is the second constituency to just mention is congress they invited back the secretary general of nato to address a joint session and that's a great way of sending a signal i believe that's the way americans and a signal to the. right house they did the same when they in the congress did the

same when they invited benjamin netanyahu to address a joint session during the obama years that was a way of saying to obama hey pay attention you're going to treat this guy better because we want you to treat him well congresses before nato and behind nato and the republicans as well i think and it's just really trump and his character characters around him that have sowed so much they're ok cloudier the u.k. guardian newspaper carried a piece saying that the secret of nato as long life i'm quoting here is that it is not just a military alliance and support we heard you go along with that yes i think that the particular strengths of nato of twenty nine and soon thirty member states if all those countries agree if they stick together if they really shall sort of devotee that's a really strong signal so that means that the political cohesion the political credibility actually makes the military slings if you attack one country you attack

or you have the whole nato that's going to respond and that's an enormous sign of strains that we're sending that also means if the internal problems. the military weakness and the political weakness is getting bigger and that's a problem which we have in the moment we have on the one hand problems inside europe was germany was turkey was a ok so there are struggles potent and then in addition we have the transatlantic problems so one of the big kind of the half how we keep the inner cohesion how they keep us on a devotee bit because only if it's united they said ions it's going to be strong it's going to be credible in terms of defense and deterrence and that's a major challenge at the moment ok some very interesting opening statements there lots to talk about before we do that talking let's have a look at what the nato military alliance is all about and we're going to begin at the beginning with the signing in one thousand nine hundred forty nine of the north atlantic treaty often called the washington treaty. shortly after the second world

war ended twelve countries founded the north atlantic treaty organization among them britain france belgium the united states and canada. the western allies saw a need to contain the soviet union and mountainous with defense against a potential soviet attack the principle was that an attack on any nato member would be seen as an attack against. the fall of the berlin wall and the soviet union's breakup brought a fundamental shift in the geopolitical situation. nato except in eastern european and baltic countries as members of the threat from asymmetrical conflicts and terrorism worldwide forced the alliance to revise its strategies. u.s. president trump has injected uncertainty into the nato alliance how does the future for nato. about the future of who at this point

a war. as if it is always the case the answer is more complicated. no i wouldn't say that the main enemy as russia i don't think that that's the situation at the moment that being said you know in terms of actual military threats yes i do think that europe is still somewhat militarily by russia and that's why it is important also important to have nato but nato really goes beyond that and that's what i meant with my opening statement about you know political cohesion nato us about the alliance the political alliances between the transatlantic countries so it's not i don't think it's helpful to frame with this idea of you know who is the main threat. we must not be naive about the russian. guy and i agree with that and i think you know within within europe there's a lot of the bad about the tension. you know when you really know that there is

a lot of this agreement among european allies on that and yes we absolutely shouldn't be naive but i don't i don't want to make the argument that we need nato only because of russia time has moved on we're no longer in a cold war and nato has been doing many things other than you know just the offend against russia there are many other threats out there it's a scary world i made my list claudio china cyber threats terrorism hybrid warfare and migration i don't know what you have to add so that's how continuously continue to defend successfully nine hundred and thirty million people from twenty nine different countries against all bugs for its. my first my first reaction white surprise too but i think the precondition to actually think about successful defense is sticking together as a political union because only if you have all countries agreeing that you need to do something nato remains relevant and then you have to think about what's the short term problem and what's the long term problem so in the short term or middle

term you obviously have russia russia just why elated the i know the one which abolished of a bit intermediate nuclear weapons system so there's a problem they have a military problem in the same time you have seventy zation issues on the southern flank of nato so failing states of corruption all this what you have in the in the kind of southern area of europe and that's and then you have to look beyond the thing one of the issues about the europeans need to think and they do it needs to think of china the americans agree that the next life would be for the covered like what we've actually is a great power competition russia and mainly china so the question for us europeans is do we agree what does it mean do we have an active role to play do we have a kind of more passive role to play so i think we need to differentiate what are fit to do now and tomorrow what we have to do in the future and it really important question what can need to do on its own military things and for what it needs partners there are many things like the i would say of the i think you mentioned or

or what is cyber war that's when they do as only a little role to play with the european union or states have much more to offer so i think there are many questions we need to answer first. those questions well you've put up twenty of them in the last five seconds but i mean the i would say i completely agree that it's not the of russia is not the only threat and that nato we've had this for twenty thirty years out of area or out of business this debate of where should you know how far should nato go but i think russia is the most immediate threat and in fact the more immediate it is as a threat the more easily nato will the twenty nine soon thirty will be able to maintain that political cohesion and just remain reminded of that famous definition of nato from the very first secretary general the word is made who said they just purposes to keep the americans in the russians out and the germans down and it's interesting what has changed and what hasn't we're worried

a little bit because of trump and some others in america about america's staying in we're still hasn't changes we're still want to keep the russians out and what's completely changed is the germans we don't want nobody wants to keep them down except they themselves and that's part of the problem so if you think of his quote i mean we would do well to focus on the immediate threat and by the way cyber warfare and russia are almost the same threat so we have that i mean there's also from others so that's the same threats hybrid warfare is again russia i mean they wouldn't go in with tanks into the baltics they would send green men and take down a few computers and spread fake news go out again after they would make nato look foolish so that nato starts bickering with each other that's the problem so i think it is russia. as before and not all the members are playing you know playing their fair share at the moment can i just briefly intersect here because you said

a little bit about the united states i think we worry quite a lot about the united states leaving and withdrawing from this isn't just a trump issue i mean we've all seen these reports in the new york times elsewhere well. donald trump said that he's considering withdrawing from nato and it is true that congress doesn't want that nevertheless for the united states the strategic outlook in the world really have to think that you know in terms of interests the united states' interests in europe are different now than they were while seventy years ago but even fifty or thirty years ago the united states still needs europe to some extent and the united states still needs europe to be you know peaceful but i do think that the outlook is way more towards the east towards asia towards china and i think we as europeans in this crucially important we as europeans nature understand that there is a change of you know american interests and keeping the americans in is an important aspect of it but also europeans need to build up their own capabilities can you quantify the likelihood that donald trump will announce the u.s.

withdrawal from nato in the year this year. it has been actively rhumba germany i was talking about these articles from the us you know the and we've got back as well saying that as there's great concern among the europeans about the next tweets there is there is one small footnote militarily america has been building up its nature commitment and the rhetoric from the president is going the other way but that's when even the secretary general is concerned there's a tweet is going to land on his table or in his mobile device the donald trump is going to announce it's the end of the story but i think the i mean they have to some obvious one is he just moves out everybody is shocked but i think it's a maybe most dangerous more dangerous scenario is that he's just not interested in if he doesn't leave tonight night does need to leave nato to really weaken it if the u.s. is politically less committed if they're military less committed if they don't talk

highly of both nato and the allies if they just i mean will they be put under so maybe germany is not a good ally maybe a way to committed that's already a problem because again the credibility of nato is all countries be. being together and if the biggest ally the most important in military political and nuclear terms if this all i say is actually i don't whately care anymore than i do has a major problem and then become towards or recover i could just mention. what is our european onset aviv ready to take questions there's not a new me or you read one. contributor journalist sorry but it's time for the europeans to tend to their own garden. you know in the ninety's when the bottom will start as one of the european politicians says this is you know if you have up there and you know what happened afterwards it wasn't the all of europe so i'm all of us a bit concerned i think it's the europeans don't have a choice they need to do more in security on the phone the want to do

a lot they need to do a lot more. but they should have little bit shy away from this big event to make which we often have in europe so we need to think about what we should do what we can do without the us always miss a large part of what points shy away from the big resurrect the big rhetoric that i know for example from the big security conference an influential voice here in germany said it is time now europe's political task is its own emancipation it's not too much well first of all i'd like your metaphor that you just pulled up of tending to your gardening is that what is that evokes bunch of aging europeans cutting rosebushes well there's a tanks on the outside so that tending the garden is exactly the problem i and i know one thing is sure is that you did call so do a lot of people i don't see any of it even on the horizon again the germans are part of the problem we can i'm sure get to that but they don't have the same military or geostrategic traditions the french the germans the others and they attack it in the typical european way with bureaucracy and acronyms so you have

a lot of things they're named pescado and card but they can't even agree that that's a point you've made claudia the french germans can't even agree on what what arms to export to which countries given that they supply components to the same weapons sometimes they're there at loggerheads over everything and i think the chance that pushed that if there was an actual security crisis like the russian attack of some sort that these armies would fight as one army in the coming generation is very low . just talking about the possibilities that the europeans have the options that the europeans need to address of the top of the show in your statement cloudier you to . nuclear weapons were you talking about germany or possibly accessing a nuclear option at some stage in the future no i was talking i was talking more largely about deterrence in europe that last year the u.s.

openly accused russia of violating the un of treaty and now both countries are going to walk out of the treaty that was a milestone office acuity order in europe and that actually shows that we have a return of nuclear weapons in security and in defense in europe that's a very unpleasant topic but the question so europeans need to ask is what avi going to do if russia has nuclear weapons pointed to europe what does our were unset in europe we see us is it a conventional answer is it the disarmament initiative so we don't like that topic particularly we don't like it in germany but we need to talk about what does our reaction and this second nuclear topic which we have is if the u.s. is less interested in europe but in the same time as us provides a nuclear umbrella that protects europe and the us is less interested what we are going to do is that a replacement is there frankel british answer is a european answer and the sort of nuclear question is the germans because the germans participate in the nuclear deterrence was epilate planes which are too old

and needs to be replaced so the new questions come in from all angles and particularly in germany it's a very easy unpleasant topic but we need to talk about it and that's going to be i'm afraid it's going to be a big mess as you ok let's talk about germany donald trump has repeatedly suggested that american allies above all germany are freeloaders and there are other nato members who believe that germany is not exactly what might be seen as a reliable partner let's just get a taste of the case for and against germany. germany is helping in mali with troops supporting the united nations mission in this west african trouble spot there training mali and security forces among other top. and in afghanistan with some twelve hundred troops the german military is the second biggest contributor of personnel to nato the resolute support mission after the u.s. . and with the rapid response force germany is currently leading the spearhead of

nato. it was formed as the ukraine crisis unfolded as a deterrent against russia. something of a deterrent to germany's contribution is its defense budget. the finance minister old off scholtz plans to cut it back to one point two three percent of g.d.p. by two thousand and twenty three far below nato's invision goal of two percent. chancellor merkel is still counting on one and a half percent until two thousand and twenty four. for us to fulfill the stated obligation i stand behind that and so does the german government. can the nato partners rely on germany. and earlier this year german foreign minister. said nato is about decency and dependability and not just cash in contributions to a dependability is important that more and more of germany's allies are beginning to doubt that germany is a reliable act what's your take on

a lot they're not wrong i mean i'm not sure they're right but they're not wrong and this goes back you have to understand this is not about trump this goes back several administrations. defense secretary gates in the w. bush administration came out strongly criticizing the germans they've just been more diplomatic and that's just the americans but the other partners as well and germany clearly has the thanks to this that's been trying to cash in its alleged peace dividend after the cold war and has let its army navy and air force just go to rags i mean this is submarines that don't float and airplanes that don't fly and all of that and that's now well documented and that's. not and that goes against the grain and i think the germans are now wrong as merkel and her finance minister scholz as they like to do is to split hairs over how whether a percentage of g.d.p. is a good figure or not you know i would suggest you get a recession if you suddenly make this very dull i'm going to do is become an

incredibly important symbolic debate whether it actually is willing to pull its weight it's not just symbolic i mean number one i think it should be very relatively clear that germany needs to invest more in its military simply in terms of capabilities as was mentioned there are so many systems that do not work we haven't we don't have as many people in uniform as we would like to so i think there's first of all a need for more investment that needs to be fulfilled but the second point of course is that the pend ability and i travel a lot you know within europe i go to paris they go to warsaw and i don't think berlin realizes to what extent it has lost really there the trust i think of cool you are in the you know i want to be with philip you mean the berlin political at least the leadership there is no i don't and i don't think those that all state know that germany's credibility is at risk but whenever i talk to them they tell me oh you know what don't trust the numbers we currently have on the table it's going to go up i mean defense spending right it's going to go up in the budget process is going to be fine we're going to get towards the one point five percent from what do

you say it's about sofa street when it's presented to you i say i look at the numbers that are actually on the table as do all the other european and transatlantic allies and we see that we are nowhere near the one point five the germany said it's going to achieve and of course we are nowhere near the two point two percent that germany said it would by twenty twenty four and this isn't a terrible signal and quite honestly no i don't think that the the berlin establishment really realizes how badly it affects. the den i think i've been seeing is is intriguing to me is if i want to test it on you i believe that for the last few years since then president gallup gave a speech at the munich security conference that the berlin elites the. around this part of town actually do understand that germany's allies are having doubts but there's no but the german public is completely uncoupled from this elite and there isn't zero courage on the part of members of this elite to explain it to

them they all fit specially in the social democratic party is that you do not want to touch is like the third rail of german politics so i think no one's actually brought foreign policy security policy and the need to arm for real threats to the public in a very no that the public doesn't want to doesn't want to interact with that it wouldn't be the actual entity i think the public actually is well they're willing to listen to that but the problem is not to talk about numbers we talk about one point three one point four one point five don't we to talk about defense and we don't really talk about strategy and i think one of the major problems germany has a dozen lots in defense i mean if you look at the defense budget ten years ago or twenty thirty thirty three billion i'll be at forty three so things moved indeed and germany still in the lot to nato but on the other hand then comes the domestic debate in the kind of party power politics and then germany is sending mixed messages what you mention so the question is we stick to an austrian not stream to

the pipeline and in the same time we do lots of deterrence and defense in the east so our partners say what you actually want you want to do that with the russians or you want to defend us against the russians then we have to export problem on the one hand we want to build a city to go thomas europe is friends with big industrial projects but then we don't want to export them so our partners say yeah obviously in terms of credibility of deniability we don't really know what you want and that's the same with a one point five or two percent defense budget become a talk about what you that's what isn't the whole day and then it's about strengthening the institutions that do what it actually is and they to you you when you say maybe not so there is a kind of gap between what we do and what we talk about. and that's. true or not. i couldn't say it any better the problem since we're talking about that on the seventieth birthday of nato for seven decades germany has outsourced its security

to the big brother the united states and. it has basically shirked studion it it hasn't understood that it that the big brother is fed up with that and it has to do something itself and it is just in denial and that's the part of the public debate i was criticizing. maybe just one point on the public it is true that the german public tends to be a pacifist a country like the military as much that's all however i get the impression that german politicians like to hide behind this alleged public opinion because i do think that almost no one even takes the initiative to try to explain truths about. you know. i think hiding behind and trying to make the argument. i'm afraid that. i hope we have to.

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